THE 5 STEPS TO MAKING A GCC FORCE!

So, last night I ended with the promise of painting the picture of how the GCC could actually develop a viable multinational, joint fighting force.

Does that sound like a tall order?

You bet it is.

It’s a tall order even for modern, Western nations who have attempting to perfect the “Joint” business of military operations for decades now.

Does that mean it’s nearly impossible for the GCC nations to achieve this mystical goal?

Not impossible, but just about as close as they can possibly get.  

Having said that, let’s get down to how it might be achieved.

With an issue as complicated as this one, the process will have to be approached in a phased manner both in terms of time and expectations.

STEP 1:

Limit Expectations:

What strategic vision is truly the “joint vision” of the nation’s wishing to achieve this goal?

If Saudi is the only visionary allowed to develop what the military endstate should be, then the process will fail from the very beginning.

Yes, it may take time to fail, but never doubt the fact that it will fail.

So, the issue of “limiting expectations” applies to guess whom…..yep… Saudi.

Saudi must insure this endeavor is the product of “joint vision” and developing that “Joint Vision” is honestly the most difficult of all the task.

The most difficult not only because of the “joint” requirement, but because without this goal being achieved, the process fails regardless of the amount of money spent.

STEP 2:

Share the growth:

If five years from now, the Saudi slice of this vision is miles ahead of the other “partners”, then “joint” will no longer be achievable.

Here is the challenge for Saudi and here is the lesson they have struggled to learn in the past…..Peninsula Shield is the glaring example.

The process of procurement, training and exercising is the most advanced with Saudi and the natural, unintended tendency will be to move forward at a pace the others are not prepared to keep up with.

Come exercise time, as scripted as they may be, if the Saudi slice of the force sticks out, the honor factor of being a “partner” will vanish.

Now, the natural tendency, as of today, in the region is to look far better than you really are and that is truly how most of the modern militaries in the world quietly see exercises the GCC takes part in.

If the first team that drives, flies or walks by, looks somewhat formidable and then the rest seem clean  but fake, then the “jointness” is gone.

In the review stands sits the leaders of the 2^nd / 3^rd place forces and in their minds they only worry of looking fake or worse, silly!

Sound crazy?

I can assure you it’s what takes place.

So, what needs to take place is the Saudi contingent remaining vigilant to the issue of out shinning the “Joint Partners”.

This vigilance must take place at every level….procurement.. training… exercise and evaluation.

Break this code and yes…….. the vision falls apart!

STEP 3:

Integrity:

 Ok, here comes so of the ugliest comments that must be made if anyone in the GCC wants to truly be successful in this project.

Kickbacks… graft… corruption, “what’s in it for me?..... How do I get rich / powerful / influential / based on what my country is spending BILLIONS on”?

Those are the statements that must be eliminated.

Those are the mindsets that must be swept to the side.

These are the personalities that cannot be allowed to take part in this journey!

How difficult is that to achieve?

So hard, so impossible that even the modern Western military industrial complex is virtually controlled by the same curse.

Can those who are empowered to achieve this goal, be trusted?

Can people of honor be found to champion this quest?

And if honorable managers / leaders / can be found, can their leaders be trusted?

When billions and billions of dollars are placed on the table, how strong can honor remain?

Is it realistic to have an expectation of “honor”?

In the end, what will need to happen is a controlled acceptance of corruption / graft / kickbacks, greed and lust for power.

Each of the GCC members will have to fine their team of champions and these teams will have to understand the limits of what they can allow to take place.

Achievable?

Yes.

It works in the Western Military Industrial arena every day of the year.

Can it work in the GCC?

If it doesn't ……failure!

STEP 4:

Standardization:

If you thought the previous steps were mountains to climb, here comes one that has no history of success in the region.

Standardization; what does it mean?

Equipment?

Yes!

Training?

Yes! 

Planning?

Yes!

Rank and structure?

Yes!

When NATO took on the task of “standardization”, it failed on several occasions and honestly it only was achieved after the US set the “standards” and told everyone else they had to follow.

What is purchased by one GCC member interacts how with what the other members buy?

Can one supply operation support multiple multinational units?

Can training for one nation fit the training of the others?

Can standardized  plans be written to achieve the goals of  multiple countries?

Can one exercise truly evaluate the capabilities of a “joint” force?

Can anyone guess what is need to make this standardization a reality?

Yep… Steps 1,2,3

With a huge emphasis on step 3!!!

STEP 5:

Evaluations:

After Billions and Billions have been spent; after countless governmental press releases on the tremendous achievements that have been made, how do the leaders and more importantly the people of the GCC nations truly know……believe…. The vision has been achieved?

Unfortunately, history tells us the only way this is achieved is in conflict.

So, does that mean that no matter what “evaluation” takes place, none of the leadership will ever really know…..believe the whole thing works?

Is there any chance of ending this dream with a true vision of hope?

Yes.

Parades are for building boosting the pride of the citizens.

They are often used as a way to send a “message” to one’s enemies!

Parades and scripted exercises are for “show”; true evaluations are for go or no go!

Those of us who have lived in the realm of down and dirty evaluations; evaluation that at some point put forces and leaders in a “ no win situation”, we understand the stark reality of true evaluations.

Has this been historically lacking in the GCC region?

Yes.

Why?

Yep.. steps. 1,2,3 and 4..but mostly 3!!

As I said earlier; those who sit in the reviewing stand; they know just how fictitious most of their evaluations are.

They fully understand the difference between a parade and an evaluation.

Most foreign assisted training and exercises in the region are parades, complicated parades, but parades never the less!

The GCC will need a true system of evaluations; evaluations that place the pressure of failure on leaders and leaders who understand this pressure early on in the procurement and training process.

Leaders who are not chosen given their family bloodline, but leaders who are chosen for their passion to keep their nation and the nations of their Allies safe.

Can these leaders come from the pool of historical “bloodlines”?

Yes, and as a matter of fact many do.

I had the honor of working with one in Saudi years ago.

Can these leaders demand an evaluation system that truly test their skills, that pushes them past the point of failure in order to give them the taste, the fear of such failure that insures they will not allow it to happen in reality?

Yes.

How?

Close the doors….limit who knows the results and push the capabilities with a evaluation process that had nothing to do with procurement or training.

Short answer….keep the contractors at the gate and test the mettle of the future forces with honorable, professional and most importantly “joint” evaluators.

It’s a team fight and a team must win or lose together.

After that is achieved, the synergy will be the armor that surrounds their capabilities.

So, there you have it.

Is that the answer from soup to nuts?

Probably not, but it is the structure of success.

Can Saudi and the rest of the GCC pull this off?

I will tell you this; Saudi cannot reach this goal on their own!

Synergy is the brass ring of this ride they appear to be  about to  embark on.

Synergy is the “endstate”…

Synergy is what they have lacked for centuries.

Follow five steps…follow with dogged determination and when the evaluation dust settles, it just may be synergy standing in front of them!

Time will tell and the odds are stacked against them.

THE SAUDI ASSERTIVE DEFENSE DOCTRINE…. CAN IT BE DONE?

On several occasions I've addressed the issue of Saudi coming to the realization they soon, if not already, may be “on their own” in terms of maintaining their world as they know it.

Rumors of oil running out.

More countries striving to become fuel independent with the US leading the way despite the current administration allegiance to it’s environmental base.

A US doctrine that gives every perception of walking away from the Royal Family all it stands for.

A Western, initial support, to the Arab Spring; an event I nicknamed the Tunisian Virus from day one!

The perception of a Western slant towards Shia / Persian / relationships.

Are these events enough to send the GCC members into a new direction; a direction that is based on once again attempting to stand, militarily, on their own feet!!!

Yes!

If you don’t agree, then you might be a member of the Western oil industry as you desperately try to convince you GCC partners this is all just a bad dream, a misunderstanding that will go away soon….2016…..

You want to see this process go into overdrive…..just let the GCC sit in their rooms on election night for the US and watch Hilary Clinton win the White House.

If you do accept the premise this shift is taking place, then follow me as I walk down the path of what will it take for this process to finally be successful; hint… it has not happened since the days of Saladin!

So, why is it so difficult for the Arab nations to build and maintain a viable military…one based on a true ability to interact and execute in a multinational contingency?

Time and time again, those who claim they have “worked” with these nations…sold them systems they don’t need….can’t use or don’t even understand will sit, outside of ear shout and say something along the lines of, “ they are too lazy to be a true fighting force”!

An ugly statement, but what is even more important is, it’s not true.

Do I have the portfolio to make that statement?

Yes.

How.

Don’t worry how, just trust me when I state that I do.

Time and time again many of these military units have shown to be little more than flashy and parade ready or even worse, scripted exercise with Brass watching from the sidelines.

Do these countries have specialized units that have passed true evaluations?

Yes, but small, specialized units don’t win conflicts….they execute missions that may lead to victory, but they do not determine victory.

So, what is the problem?

What has made this large scale improvement process so difficult to achieve?

Let me give a very ugly answer.

Who really wanted or wants them to be a viable fighting force?

Is the true mission to keep them hooked on Western equipment…keep them spending huge sums of money on defense contractors…. Paying for training programs that never show them the real pathway to becoming a modern military?

Do they put the effort into the process they are being shown?

Do they truly trust their forces to be taught how to think on their own?

Do the schools they are allowed to attend really mean as much to them as they should?

Hard questions that need honest answers before the way forward can be paved.

Back to the most basic point of this discussion.

Who really wants to see the GCC / Saudi / become an honest power projection fighting force?

Can the Saudi’s really envision it?

Even if they can; can the rest of the GCC membership?

Are they a house divided; so divided the concept of a truly capable Peninsula shield force cannot become reality?

The reality is, most will see this Saudi vision as one thing and only one thing; an opportunity to make money…large amounts of money.

The Middle East has been crawling with what I call Mr Haneys for decades with 9-11 being the zenith of a “ It just so happens I have what you need right here in the back of my truck”. 

Side note:   For those of you who don’t know who Mr Haney was, he as a character on a TV show in the US back in the 60s called Green Acres….. Mr Haney would show up everyday at Mr Douglas’s house, a rich New York Layer who moved to the country to work a rundown farm, and sell him anything he was looking for….Get the picture?

Billions have been made and the GCC still feels it needs a dramatic “change” in the unified approach to defending their countries.

Why?

Again, both side are at fault, but the Mr Haney’s of the world are the ones that made the Billions and the leaders of these nations know when they are being “took”!

Remember…Arab Businessmen have a few thousand years of experience in the skill craft of “dealing”.

Spending the last few decades, since the oil money showed up, being “taken” usually had a level of “kickback” built in!

Remember what I said; the reason effectiveness has been limited goes to both sides of the process…very few innocent members have been at the table.

Ok, it’s easy to criticize and it’s easy to sit here and explain why this modernization has failed to provide the leaders of the GCC with the confidence they desire.

Tomorrow I will spell out what I believe it will take to make this process finally become reality; and guess what… I won’t charge a dime!!!

Pass this post around for the next few days…this is going to be fun…fun to me that is!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/saudi-arabia-regional-defense-doctrine-counterterrorism-plan.html

RUSSIA… THE UKRAINIAN CAMBODIA…

Over 500 fighters moving onto Ukrainian land from the border area of Russia?

To those who remember Vietnam… does this ring a bell?

If not, then perhaps you can understand Lebanon’s border with Syria.

So, why did the Tsar pull some of his forces back from the border?

Well, for one thing, his military leaders understand all too well the West has the ability to monitor unit movements on many different spectrum's.

Secondly, and more importantly…as I have said before, why should he send his troops on to Ukrainian land?

Why put Ukrainian blood on his paramilitaries units….oh…by the way…he has!!!

Next question.

Who are these “separatist” and how did they get so organized?

Are they elements of the Ukrainian forces from the Crimea region?

Yes….. some are.

Does anyone not believe this was the plan the whole time.

Recruit, train, equip Ukrainians to do the Tsar’s dirty work?

Train, equip them on the safe side of the border, a border Ukrainian forces dare not cross or fire over.

Yep…. Can you say Cambodia?

Some may wonder if such a fore is sizable enough and equipped to the point of reaching the objective?

Well; what is the objective?

What are they tasked to “achieve”?

Storm Kiev and bring down the government?

Nope.

Keep the Eastern region in crisis and eventually get the youth of Ukraine to turn on the unorganized and unproven government?

Yep.

Will this take time?

Yep..

Does the Tsar have the kind of time to make this plan work?

Why not…..what’s to stop him?

What are these Separatist truly facing?

An ill prepared, poorly trained and disorganized remnant of the old Ukrainian military….that’s what!!!!

So, have events in the Ukraine calmed down?

Have the Progressive governments of the West reached a status they can live with?

Have you heard the US administration even mention the Ukraine crisis in the past three weeks?

Who remains to have the upper hand in this conflict?

Yep… we know the answer!!!!

Out of site….out of mind… that is what the West is praying for….oops.. I don’t know if Progressives pray….maybe it’s a group think…. Collective process?

Round five…advantage….Tsar!!

Now let’s see what he serves next!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27661848

SISI WINS… NOW…WHERE DOES EGYPT GO?

Did the congratulatory phone get place from DC to Sisi?

I’ve not heard, but my guess is it did not!

Is the US administration still upset over the tossing out of the Brotherhood?

Well, that is most likely the opinion of those who have been tacking this event.

So, where does Sis go from here?

Does he strengthen his relationship, on the slide of course, with Israel?

How else would he deal with the resistance that will continue from Gaza?

Will he reach out to Saudi and the GCC knowing the money to help ease his pain resides in the bank accounts of  these nations?

The answer rest with looking at Jordan…. The model for learning how to reach out to the real money in the region.

Will Sisi put any effort to working with the Persians?

Only if the Tsar tells him it would be to his benefit.

What does that mean?

Does the Tsar get a majority vote on what decisions Egypt may make?

Yes.

What is old is new again and who do we have to thank for this?

Next question.

 Is the new Egyptian leader sailing into calm waters now?

For the most part……yes!!

Can a ground level insurgency begin in Egypt?

Can Egypt start down the road of Lebanon or worse Syria.

Perhaps, but my gut tells me it won’t happen anytime soon.

Syria is not going well for the Sunni radicals and all efforts, shy of Yemen, seem to be focusing on turning the tide once again in Syria.

Does the West understand the risk of letting Egypt slide all the way into the Tsar’s camp?

I wouldn’t bank on it.

Something tells me the power that be in DC somehow see Sisi’s rise as a Republican plot or worse yet… something that is GW’s fault!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en

US “SUPPORT” TO SYRIAN REBELS… THE IMAGE GAME!

As it appears the current administration is on a one week binge to boost the President’s image as something other than a weak leader, it seems the issue of supporting the Rebels in Syria is once again a topic pushed to the press.

Now, this story may catch the interest of the media, but no one should be under the illusion that anything is going to really change.

Has the US been supporting the rebels from some location near the area?

Most likely.

Is this really new news?

Nope.

Is it attempt to repair the image of the US President?

Yep.

Stack this story on top of the speech the President gave at West Point today and it’s more than obvious what is taking place.

Don’t be surprised if the President’s version of trying to sound like a Hawk,as funny as that may sound to people like the Tsar,  continues for the next few days.

Do the Rebels really believe any tangible support is going to come from this?

Nope.

So, what is the “ support” the US and the West has most likely been providing for the events in Syria?

Well, my hunch is it’s based upon assuring the IDF they don’t have to take action inside Syrian land….other than bombing a few sites from time to time.

Yes….the objective of the “support” is to keep the Israeli government from taking actions that would possibly detail the dream of a nuclear deal with the Persians.

Is the US President going to repair his image with these dramatic, hollow, speeches?

No.

So is all of this a complete waste of time?

Yep!

I’m not even sure the Tsar bothered listening to his intelligence agent’s analysis of what the US President is up to this week.

Sad, but true.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/05/28/U-S-may-decide-to-train-Syrian-rebels.html

ERDOGAN AND PUTIN.. CRAZY.. YOU BET… DANGEROUS??? OH MY YES!!

Ok,  Michael Weiss knocks the ball clean out of the park… no surprise there!!!

I’ve spoken to the issue of Egodan’s mental state on many occasions and the comparison here with the Tsar is spot on.

A different kind of crazy……yes…. But crazy never the less!!!

So, is it safe to sit back and simply laugh about the nut case running the show in Turkey?

Nope.

Remember, he is a “nut case” as a NATO Allie!

So, just how dangerous is Egodan?

Simply put….very!!!

If you remember the last time a spoke to the issue of this madman, it was the mining disaster and how I predicted it would not take him long to strike out at someone over the whole issue….it’s what  irrational, violent people do.

Well, the fact of the matter is, it took him less than 24 hrs from the time I made that post.

As a matter of fact, I think he may have been beating up on the families of the victims as I was writing the article.

If the West comes to the realization that both Turkey and Russia are run by mentally ill men, then the question should be asked, “ what to do about it”?

Here is the real bad news, we all know the answer before we even bother to ask the question.

What will the West do?

Nothing.

Or should I say it will do what every Progressive typically does…just hope it all goes away and try to distract their base with some other topic.

Is this all a direct result of the death of American leadership?

To some degree, but the course of the Tsar was set almost twenty years ago and this idiot in Turkey has been around for over twelve years.

Someone asked me today, “ what is the real difference between the Tsar and Egodan”?

Michael Weiss addressed part of the issue, but let me take a shot at what the real danger is.

Egodan is a hothead and more than irrational….downright scary.

But, forces inside his own country are determined to counter his rule and the odds of them being successful are close to 50 50 over the next few years.

This is not the case with the Tsar.

He is not an irrational hothead, at least not with witnesses.

His enemies in Russia are vocal but the vast majority of the people support him and he has done a masterful job of building this process with the events in the Ukraine.

 Is the Tsar completely safe?

No, but the odds are very much in his favor for the foreseeable future.

Is it possible two mentally ill world leaders could find common ground when they both seem to be on opposite sides of the Syrian Proxy war?

Short answer….yes…

Does anyone think Egodan or the Tsar gives a damn about the Arab population of Syria?

Would both of them be willing to take any action needed to achieve their dreams?

Would the Tsar set the Ottoman madman up to be his overseer of the Middle East?

Yes, but the Tsar knows, as some of us do, the future of the Ottoman is not cast in stone and that will be a weighted factor.

If not the Ottoman, then who?

Hello…Egypt!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/548494-tayyip-the-troubled

EUROPE’S ELECTIONS….INDIA’S ELECTION…WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27559714

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-27572807

Two major events have taken place in the past week and I’m fairly confident most people have no clue what they could mean.

Modi’s win in India:

I would be willing to bet the Tsar didn’t factor into his Master Plan for the Russian Empire the emergence of a nationalistic India!

I would also be willing to bet the Dragon’s worse nightmare for long-term dominance just became a near reality with Modi’s victory.

What did Modi’s win mean to the West?

Hard to tell.

In the US, 99.99999 percent, to include most of the federal government “experts” have no clue where this might lead.

As much as the West may be thinking about this topic, and other than corporations that means not a lot of “thinking” is going on, it’s the Dragon and the Tsar who are recalculating Modi’s dramatic step into the next definition of the “New Word Order”!

Bottom line….the New World Order may have just gotten “Newer”… much to the surprise of the Tsar.

Eurosceptic:

In the past 24 hrs, the future of the European Union took a dramatic hit!

Is this a lasting event or a short-term anti vote?

Well, the progressive governments of Europe are praying, if they do pray, it’s a fluke…an anti vote as they are calling it.

So, is it short term?

I don’t’ think so.

Look, the pool of those who pay the bills is shrinking not only in the US but in Europe.

The Millionaires of France all but moved…to Russia no less.

Those who are shouldering the burden of Political spending for the sake of staying in power are now becoming those who are simply working…not just the dwindling “Middle Class”, but the working class as well.

The typical formula for social unrest and historically that social unrest was to the advantage of those social spenders who cry the Rich are robbing the poor.

What these left of center thinkers continue to forget is the reality that this same social upheaval is the nest of Nationalism… extreme Nationalism.

Is this the course much of Europe just turned towards?

It’s more than a possibility and that is why the midnight oil is burning in every capital of Europe.

 “ The trouble with Socialism is you eventually run out of other people’s money”… The words a very wise Woman who England could use right about now!

So, here is what I think these two events mean to the rest of the world.

They both have a trend that must not be overlooked.

The people of Europe are growing more disenfranchised by spending their money on those who do not tow their weight.

The other group in Europe is growing tired of hearing they can’t have what everyone around them as they are being told, “it’s the ‘Rich People’s fault’ and you deserve better…just vote for me”!!!

In India, the people are well aware of the fact the Dragon is out to be the next real world leader and they simply don’t see themselves as being servants yet again to the next big movement….The Western culture’s rule over their land was enough and they seem set to not let history repeat itself.

Simply put; what we may have all witnessed this last week was the rise of Nationalism with a 21^st century flavor.

On a bright note……none of this is good news for the Tsar or the Dragon and the way I see it, a “game changer” just took place on two fronts.