ALEPPO…. “ WHAT IS JERUSALEM WORTH”?

Three years ago, I commented, at the beginning for the battle of Alleppo, Alleppo would be the Center of Gravity for the Rebels.

Well, who were the “rebels” three years ago and who are the “rebels” now no longer resembles the beginning.

Is Assad supporting Sunni, Fundamentalist Radicals…. The same ones he has battled for three years?

Was Assad able to divide the “enemy” to the point they spend as much energy killing each other as they spend fighting Assad and his Allies?

Did Assad truly figure out how to make this happen?

Of course not!

His Father could have pulled this off, but not the Eye Doctor or his Brother.

You can thank the Iranian CUD force for turning the tide of the Sunni factions.

It’s a process the Iranians perfected prior to Syria and it simply took a little bit of time to make it work.

Now, as for Aleppo; it’s the prize the Assad Team wants desperately.

Not because it’s a function city, it may never be that again.

It’s the symbol that makes it the “prize”!

It’s the city the Assad team would never retake!

So, what has changed?

Is the fall of Aleppo truly the end of the Sunni rebellion?

Are the “Rebels” whomever that may be now, read to call it quits?

As I stated about the situation with the city of Homs, the will to persevere must reside in more than just the minds of the Old Religious Leaders who sit and sip their Tea all day talking about what is at stake.

Rebellions have a Life Cycle and the cycle in Syria has is no different that the thousands of other rebellions over the history of man!

Yes, the 21^st century Pandora’s Box called the world wide web…. Social media has changed how conflicts are perceived, supported and then unsupported.

You see, it still takes young men willing to not only destroy their futures, but give up their lives for perhaps a 100 yrds of rubble that may be held for a day or less.

After three years of dying and an Enemy that seems embolden to take travesties to the next level, the population of these “young men” may be about spent.

Let me assure you, Assad, through the networks of Iran and the Tsar, know exactly how many new fighters are moving into Syria.

If that number is falling, then once again, the old BB King song may apply….”The Thrill is Gone”!

I cannot sit here tonight and tell you the “Tide” has turned or is about to turn.

I’m not willing to predict the fall of Aleppo.. the truth is, like Homs, Aleppo ceased being a “city” nearly three years ago.

Aleppo is not the strategic goal of the Assad Team.

Assad doesn’t get to make that call… he’s an Eye Doctor who inherited a Cold War process that is far too complicated for his brain.

This may not be the end for the Rebels.

Fighting may take place for years to come at a much lower level; just think in terms of what is taking place in Iraq right now.

What I do know is this….. The fate of Syria does not rest in the hands of the West!

It does not rest in the hands of the Arab League.

Syria is  tool… a tool of the Persians and the Tsar.

Who sets the tone for the foreseeable future in the Middle East is no longer an issue for the West to control.

Those days are gone… Into the pages of history… like thousands of other events in the region.

Aleppo:

In the movie “ Kingdom of Heaven”, there is a wonderful scene where Balian of Ibelin ask Saladin, “what is Jerusalem worth?”…. Saladin answers, “nothing”. Then as he walks away he turns and clinches his fist with the answer of, “Everything”!!!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/05/syria-aleppo-rebels-fighters-war-civilians-ceasefire.html

IRANIAN DOUBLE CROSS??? MAYBE.. OR JUST PARANOIA ONCE AGAIN!

Last week, I kept reading about a series of articles, statements and open press stories on how President Rouhani was for lack of better terms, a turncoat.

It was also fairly understood this story line was being pushed by the IRGC’s leadership.

So, fast forward to this week and then comes the rumors of the IRGC preparing to neutralize any have baked deal Rouhani may come up with over the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

Is Rouhani truly a reformed, Middle of the Roder”?

The West / US / has certainly been banking on that wish.

Could Khamenei have concocted a plan where Rouhani comes out as the “reformer….willing to talk to the West”… and yet be a loyal follower of the Persian grand plan?

Or, did Rouhani win an election based upon the votes of those the Khamenei / IRGC / camp fears the most…….. the youth of Iran?

Remember this.

The backfire the Iranians started to prevent the Forrest fire of the Arab Spring from reaching the Iranian capital, that lead to the civil war in Syria was just one indication of how far Khamenei’s team was willing to go to preserve the “dream”.

Has Rouhani truly tried to strike out on his own?

Is he truly making an attempt to meet the West halfway?

I’m not sold on the idea, but in reality, it doesn’t really matter what we in the West think.

What is important to focus on is the reality that the CUD force and the IRGC work for the Supreme Leader an no one else.

I’ve said this before and I will say it again.

If the Supreme Leader wants Rouhani gone, all he has to do is send one message to Soleimani and the deal is done!

Taking all of this into consideration, what are we looking at in Iran?

Is the House divided?

How does the West “test” this theory?

Does it even know how or worse; does it have the desire to try?

This Iranian weapons game has been going on for decades now and the playing level is now far more complex than any point in the past.

Trust is a fleeting concept in the 21^st century of international affairs.

Trust inside the walls of a tyrannical government like the one in Iran is nearly impossible thanks to social media.

If there is a disturbance in the “Force”, something I’ve questioned in the past when talking of the Persians, then how is it leveraged?

Now, here is the truly disappointing question.

Who takes advantage of it?

If not the West / US / then who?

Ah yes… once again the Tsar’s name comes into the picture.

Talks coming up….talks the US and the West are desperate to have a positive spin.

That means nothing.

What does the Tsar want to take place as a result of these “talks”?

That’s the real question.

http://www.debka.com/article/23908/Nuclear-talks-in-jeopardy-Khamenei-orders-Rev-Guards-to-mass-produce-missiles---regardless

RUSSIAN PATRIOTISM…EVERYBODY’S HAPPY RIGHT?

Victory day parades and the largest parade in Moscow in over 20 yrs?

Is anyone surprised?

Just about every journalist placing their eyes on these well scripted events continues to rave about the apparent surge in Russian pride!

 I won’t argue the point the Tsar has accomplished a masterful feat in rebuilding the support of a public that was only a little over a year ago working hard to real Mr Putin in.

Then came the “threats” to the Russian people themselves.

The rise of Nazism in Europe and ever more controlling “West” trying to keep the good people of Russia down….once again!

Yes, to a large degree, what the Tsar has pulled off is impressive, but are things as blissful as the state controlled media in Moscow would as the world to believe?

Do youthful Russians see themselves as important members of a global community?

Do they remember or understand the horrors of what took place in their country over sixty years ago?

Can the Tsar build future Russian pride on the memories of WWII?

Does that equate to the youth?

Today was a day to celebrate a heroic feat unmatched by any other nation during WWII.

What the Russian people accomplished… what the endured.. what they survived forever changed those who remember and perhaps their children.

Those who protested against the Tsar and his heavy handed dealings with those who oppose him; they are not the children of the War Heroes.

Most are not even the grandchildren of that generation.

Are today’s events in Russia yet another indication of how the Tsar is on the move, after all, it was the largest display in over 20 yrs.. I think I read that twenty times today!

I’ll tell you what it means to me.

A little over a year ago, Mr Putin was struggling with a population that was no longer in love with his vision / style / of ruling the Motherland .

Mr. Putin’s “Vision” of the Russian Empire with him playing the part of Tsar was in trouble.

Yes, the Tsar has things going his way….for now..

Does that mean the discontent that was so visible in Moscow a little over a year ago is gone?

No.

Does the Tsar know that?

You bet he does.

What is he willing to do to keep the momentum moving forward?

Who is he willing to suppress at home?

Ask around… you can find the answer.

Today was a celebrated day for those who dared to stop the Evil that was Nazism and nothing should degrade from that fact.

Mr Putin was not one of those heroes and he can only bask in their glory for so long!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27334038

PUTIN’S HAS THE MEDIA “CONFUSED”? SIMPLE.. IT’S NAZISM!!!!

So, the Tsar paints a picture of “backing off” on the whole Ukrainian issue or so some of the  media “experts” have commented.

Now, granted, some of them are skeptical, as is the rest of the world, over the Tsar’s change of heart.

Look, we all know what is going on here.

Once again the well-organized phases of his master plan are being executed right on time.

Last week the official Russian stance was, they no longer have the ability to influence what is taking place in the Ukraine.

Logically, if you know how the mind of the Tsar works, the next statement would be one along the lines of, ‘ we are making every attempt to work peacefully towards a compromise’!

So, Russia states, ‘we can’t control but we are trying to help’!

Really?

We all know what a passionate man the Tsar can be!

So, if we have correctly anticipated these two moves by the Tsar, what is the next?

Are these stunts just another indication he is about to move on to the next phase of his Master Plan?

What is that “phase”?

I remain skeptical of an actual Russian movement into the Ukraine, but if I woke up tonight and it had moved into an open operation, I wouldn’t be that stunned.

Ok, as much as the Western media seem to be memorized by the Tsar’s so called change of heart, the attached story is far more of an indictor of where the Tsar is heading, big picture wise.

First off, look who attended this meeting.

Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus!

If you think Poland or some other Eastern European nation is on the Tsar’s target list, you might pay attention to why these three are more important to him than non fuel producing Eastern European speed bumps.

Next, look at the “theme”, a topic that is not new to the Tsar’s vocal opinion of where Western Europe has been heading for years now.

Stirring   the image of Nazism and it’s European roots is not a process brought about by the Tsar’s passion for European history.

Painting a picture, a very unpleasant, picture of his potential rivals and then proclaiming to his non-European business partners that this seems to be the growing trend in Europe, well…….. ask yourself…………why?

I’ve said it time and time again, but here we go.

What is taking place in the Ukraine is only one phase of the Tsar’s Master Plan.

Bringing up the image of the Nazis in Europe again allows the Tsar what?

The support and the excuse to prevent that from taking place in lands that are important to Mother Russia?

I just wonder what the German government thought when they once again heard the Tsar bring up this issue of  “Nazism” in Europe?

The Tsar continues to move ahead with “Plan Russia” and we all keep running around trying to figure out what he is doing and what he is going to do next.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140508/189672188/Putin-Warns-of-Growing-Militant-Nationalism-Nazi-Ideology-in.html

HOMS AND THE UNITED STATE’S CONTINUED DYSFUNCTIONAL POLICY.

As I was reading through a stack of articles about the recent events in the city of Homs, I came across this one in al-monitor that simply made me change gears on what I wanted to talk about tonight.

Let me break down what I would like to comment on into two topics with the second one being far more important, big picture wise.

HOMS:

So, Assad has a “great victory” in Homs?

He has the “momentum”!

The “resistance” is demoralized!

The “tide has turned”!

Well, I don’t buy any of it.

Historically any conflict that last several years has the tendency to appear to have “run it’s course”.

It’s even logical that the entrenched government, if it has the support and the resolve, can wait until the flames of passion….passion for the romance of conflict… fighting.. telling war stories… basking in the “Warrior” limelight, begins to die out.

Is that what is taking place in Syria?

To some extent yes.

The reality is as much as some would like to predict the changing of the tide, the reality is the resistance is now the entrenched government and the entrenched government is now wearing down the war weary original resistance.

Yes.. We are talking, to some degree, about role reversal!

Homs has been ruled, for the most part, by the rebels for almost three years now and the city is nothing more than a pile of ruins with people wondering around from day to day.

What constructive “vision” did the Rebels have?

What jobs program did they have ready to implement?

What is the planned development for the city?

Exactly…. Young men caught up in the thrill of killing and taking pictures of each other!

Not a real formula for “Urban Development”!

“We need your food, your money and your young men”; a message that cannot last three years without giving the people a single thing in return.

Yes, the Civil War in Syria is entering a new phase.

Yes, the “tide” may be “turning”!

But,  what does this “turn” mean to those who are trying to live in what is left of Syria?

Does Assad wake up in the morning and say, “ok it’s over and we can all go back to work now”!

Homs, one of the most historic cities in the world is a for the most part a smoldering pile of stones and concrete dust.

As a matter of fact, I would argue the definition of a “city” no longer applies to Homs.

As of today, some are running around trying to get paid for saying, “Homs is evidence of failed Western policy”.

Some are running around banging out the next chapter of their mindless books on the conflict in Syria, saying “Homs” is the turning point”!

Nobody in Homs cares what this “event” means.

What they want to know is if they can walk across the street in the morning without being shot by a sniper.

Can they pass a parked car without having to hold their breath?

Nothing has changed and the war will continue!

UNITED STATES’ DYSFUNCTIONAL LEADERSHIP!

Am I referring to the current administration or to the House and Senate?

Yes!

If you are to believe what is said in this article, and I do, then key members of Congress are learning more about what the US is doing, or should I say not doing, in Syria then they are from the White House?

Two parties, two doctrines so focused on destroying the credibility of the other that the world watches with complete disbelief!

Sad?

I’s more than sad, it’s damn downright dangerous!

Has it happened before in  American history?

Yes, but that was then and this is now; this is the 21^st century and past mistakes are not examples for the future.

Does it matter the rest of the world may read this article and say, “what a fallen idol they have become”?

Does it matter the Tsar and the Dragon see this disgraceful relationship on a daily basses

And say to themselves, “ who cares what they think… they are in the death throes of Capitalism / Democracy”!

Does exposing this dysfunctional relationship between the two parties bring a greater degree of danger to the American people?

Yes.

The 21^st century world live off of social media and social media is the King of perception.

I will tell you this; an old adage needs to be applied here and someone better realize it quickly.

“ A house divided cannot stand”.

Finally; please don’t give me that worn out line of, “ disagreement is a sign of healthy governance…. In a Democracy.

This is the 21^st century and those who believe that better open their eyes soon.

There are times this slogan is true, but now is not that time! 

I'm fairly passionate about this one. Please pass it on. 

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/05/homs-victory-assad-weapons-syrian-opposition-jarba.html

THE PERSIAN GENERAL AND HIS HUGE FOOT!

You can be an academic department chair or a veteran News Correspondent  or even a paid talking head babbling away over the issue of the Persians abusing the people of Lebanon or how Hezbollah cares less about the future of the Lebanese people and not have driven this message home any harder than this Iranian General.

Major General Safavi, did more than just blindly walk right into the hands of  those who see Iran as an abusive Master, he brought up the ghost of an event that still runs deep in the psyche of the Lebanese people.

The murders and atrocities of May 2008 created memories not just in the minds of men and women who are no so old that no one listens to them; it impacted the very voters who are contemplating the Presidential elections.

Rifi’s staff could not have scripted a more opportune time for such an iodic comment.

Yes, many, like me, understand the Persians do nothing more than exploit the people of Lebanon and hide this exploitation under the name of protecting them from the IDF.

What this Persian General did was add more accreditation to the concept of Lebanon being nothing more than a second front for any potential Iranian / Israeli war and you can bet his handlers in Tehran now understand what price they are going to pay for these words.

I can imagine the leadership of Hezbollah, a Hezbollah that is in a struggle to maintain it’s status in Lebanon, when this statement was shown to them.

Arrogance?

Yes.

True in disclosure?

Absolutely.

Someone else read about this disaster and is hard at work finding everyway possible to leverage what took place.

The Israeli government!

General Safavi is a pompous ass, but he is a more than that.

He is a ignorant fool who let his mouth take his Bosses where they do not want to go and for that, he will have to suffer the consequences.

Oh ya.. as for being a “ Senior military aid to Ali Khamenei.. there is truly only one of those and he is in charge of the operations in Syria.

Safavi’s time may have just run out.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/546174-rifi-slams-iranian-general-over-south-lebanon-remarks

RUSSIA THE WEST AND CONFLICT IN THE UKRAINE?

So, last night I mentioned what might take place that could push Russian Commanders over the edge and force them into “old style” conflict… an event that would bring world condemnation down all around them and the Tsar.

How would you like to be the military commander who promised a “new” way of waging conflict and then have to resort to the same old rut… and you made this promise to the Tsar?

Now, let’s not fool ourselves.

Is there anyone in the West ready to take the events in the Ukraine to such a level?

No!

Are there those who are capable?

Oh yes!

For the past several days I’ve made repeated statements about the false impression scripted military exercise can create.

So, this time around, for the sake of argument, let me take a shot at how the Russian master plan for the Ukraine could be countered; admittedly with a large degree of risk!

Now, the topic of cyber warfare has been just about worn out by every so called “expert” over the past ten years.

Contracting firms have made millions terrorizing government agencies with “cyber tabletop exercise” over the past few years, but the fact of the matter is, most people simply don’t understand what could happen and in reality what will someday actually take place.

All right; let’s get down to it.

Time for the What If” game!!!!!

What if:

What if a Western Nation…let’s call them the Nation of “Blue”… for those of you who ever played the old Cold War Exercise game, you know the reason why the nations are named after colors and not actual nation names.

All right…. The Nation of Blue decides it’s going to attempt to foil the perception of peace loving Tsar, who is simply out to protect the poor Russian sympathizers in the Ukraine.

The limitations for the operation are these.

No kinetic weaponry support to the Kiev government.

No loss of civilian life in Ukraine can be a result of any Nation of Blue’s actions.

Absolutely trace can be linked back to the Nation of Blue?

Based upon these restrictions, the Nation of Blue planners, not just military planners, come up with the following actions.

1.  Disruption of communications of Russian Special Units operating in Ukraine.
1. Not just disruption, but the capture of information that proves beyond a shadow of a doubt as to Russian involvement.

                                                    i.     Think in terms of what President Kennedy authorized during the Cuban Missile Crisis when it came to showing the world classified information… yes the President / Commander in Chief / has the authority to do such a thing.

2. Disruption of vital information required to execute operational support missions.
1. Who insures the disruption units operating in Ukraine have what they need and keeps it functional?
2. What happens when a supply movement shows up at the wrong location or doesn’t show up at all?
3. What happens when emails providing, where to be.. Who to meet and what needs to take place are not from the person they are supposed to be from?

                                                    i.     Once burned, how do you regain trust in electronic communications?

4. What happens when notification of KIA reach families back in Russia when no Russian troops are reported  to be in the Ukraine and by the way.. these troops were not KIA, but their families are told they are…. Ah yes… facial recognition software… ever wonder why everyone is wearing ski mask on the Russian side of the event?

3. GPS data that is wrong?
1. Does anyone remember certain events in the Serbian conflict?

                                                    i.     Ask the Chinese!

4. YouTube clips that show Russian patches on unit members fighting in the streets of Eastern Ukraine and then a voice in the background of a cell phone call … to a number that has a history in the past few hours of being used in the same area, in a very non Ukraine accent, “check your members uniforms”…

Ok, I think you get my point by now.

The 21^st century form of warfare can be deadly politically, economically without ever firing a kinetic shot!

The Russians played this game to a very simpleton degree in the Georgian conflict.

What the West can do is light-years ahead of what the Tsar showcased in Georgia and even then, his military leaders reverted to what the trust… guns…. Tanks… fighters.

Can a campaign be waged against the Tsar over Ukraine without firing a kinetic shot?

Yes.

Can it change the course of the event?

Yes.

Would this drive the Russian military senior leaders back into the only world they truly trust?

Yes!

Does the West have the resolve to take this measure?

No…and that is why. When it’s all said and done, the Tsar will have things more his way than not!

To lash out in anger over being made to look a fool is a real danger with an egomaniac like Putin, but that cannot happen when the West simply will not use the tools that no one else in the world has… not like the West does… not even the Dragon.. but the Dragon learns at a speed that dictates that soon the world will see such an event and the Dragon will arrive on the world stage as the new master of world leadership!