RUSSIA… “UKRAINE: THE DANGER OF CONFIDENCE!   

I just have to wonder if Mr. Yatsenyuk did when he blamed the security forces in Odessa for the forty + deaths two days ago.

No doubt the loyalty of the local law enforcement agencies in nearly all the contested areas, that is what they really are now…contested, was and is a major issue for the government in Kiev.

Here is the problem with pushing this event directly into the laps of the security forces leadership, if any of their forces were still on the fence, they are not now!

If you wish to make an organization change sides, then just blame them for multiple murders…..tell them you will have an investigation and they will be held responsible.

One day Yatsenyuk states, the rebels will be crushed, and the next day, he is shocked by the actions of those he is responsible for…oh yes… he is responsible for their actions….he did assume the title of “leader” did he not…he speaks for the new government correct?

And what does Mr. Yatsenyuk believe is going to happen with the remaining security forces in the contested areas?

What level of confidence do they have in Kiev, “having their backs”?

Weak, uncoordinated and reactionary governance are not the tools needed to be successful.

Once again, the Kiev government has played right into the hands of the Tsar.

“Ukraine is beyond our control”:

What other statement could Moscow put out to the word after the events in Odessa?

By the way; has anyone stopped to think how important a city Odessa is tot the Russian?

Look into it if you don’t understand that question.

As many of us have been saying for weeks now; the Tsar / Russia / needs to build his case for action in Ukraine and Odessa came right on schedule... like a train pulling into the station.

Are we closer to the main event everyone is looking for?

Are we about to see Russian tank units crossing into Ukraine?

Again, as I said two days ago, does it need to happen that way?

Is that the actual plan the Tsar has in place?

Close order, combined arms combat is impossible in suburban areas without large civilian casualties.

Why would the Tsar risk this image with the rest of the word?

Remember, this is a well scripted plan on the Tsar’s part and large civilian casualties based on Russian military actions is not part of that plan.

I’ve been playing around with a theory, one that is based on  one of the main goals of the Tsar’s master plan for reinstating the Russian Empire.

Showing the world a “new, modern, state of the art fighting force that is capable of confronting the West in the 21^st Century; that is a primary issue with this Ukrainian event.

Tanks rolling over buildings with artillery firing in support and bombs going off everywhere you look….that is the “old look” of war.. unless you are out to take over the world and you don’t care about opinion.

The Tsar’s military leaders having been building what they believe is the next generation of warfare, both technology wise and tactical execution; or so they think they have!

Every politician and General loves a great Senior Leader’s review of a glorious exercise depicting the decisive and innovative ways it’s military is prepared to defend the nation.

Scripted and always with victorious outcomes is the blanket that convinces political leaders to “move ahead with the plan”!

So, what does this have to do with the Ukraine?

Ok, what did the Tsar’s military leaders tell him should be the plan for actions in the Ukraine?

Now, realize these military leaders were given the responsibility of executing military operations in a manner that doesn’t degrade the real master plan; the reemergence of the Russian Empire!

Thus; the Russian military planners had to script the conflict side of the master plan to fit the overall plot and killing thousands of civilians in the Ukraine is not acceptable.

Getting the new government blamed for the deaths of civilians, that is part of the master plan for both the military leaders in Moscow and the Tsar.

Now, here is where the real danger comes back into play.

As I said last week, many of the current Russian military leaders may “talk the talk” of modern warfare, most are not sold on the concept.

A well scripted plan that looked great on paper and worked like a charm in the exercise mode, can fall apart at light speed once it’s underway.

So, my point is this; confidence is a deadly trait when planning an event.

Conversely, confidence is critical once execution is underway.

If he Russian military has made the Tsar “confident” during the planning phase of this operation, then the dangers are more than real.

Old military leaders fall back on what they know in times of trouble…..tanks.. .artillery…. mass on mass... and soon the most horrific event, in the Tsar’s eyes, comes to life… international media showing the Russian military crushing Ukrainian towns.

If you think, “well, if that starts to happen, the Tsar will just stop the event before it does even more damage to his international image”!

Wrong!

Stopping is the equivalent of defeat; just ask the Israeli / IDF / to talk about the 2006 conflict.

If the Russians have a plan that is too complex for a military that is truly not modernized and that is controlled by “old school” leaders, then that plan could quickly dissolve into a disaster both militarily and politically.

Just how confident is the Tsar?

Is the confidence based on what he has been shown on paper?

Remember what confidence on paper brings.

Last, but not least!

Side Note:

It’ L -6…. 6 hrs prior to launch of operations into the Ukraine, and suddenly the Russian communications HQ forward report that all movement control networks have been loaded inaccurate data and support operations will not be able to execute for perhaps days.

How did this happen?

Who did it?

Who do you blame?

How do you prove it?

What does it change?

Do you go or not go?

The Tsar is furious!

What do you do…..what do you do?

Forward this to your friends. It’s going to lead to a great “what if” for the next post.

DEATHS IN UKRAINE….  DID THE TSAR JUST GET WHAT HE NEEDED?

Everyone has been saying for over two months just how they all thought the next level of events in the Ukraine might take place and today fit’s their vision.

So, is this it?

Does the Tsar now send his forces in in order to “save the lives of the innocent”?

My gut tells me, it’s too early yet.

The Tsar Launch order may be based on a more widespread sequence of events than this.

It is troubling he quickly asked for a UN Emergency meeting knowing he would get nothing accomplished, other than saying, “I tried, but now we must move to save lives”.

Odessa:

The news from Odessa is far more fitting to the Tsar’s plan than some of the other smaller towns in Eastern Ukraine.

Small towns often have a common theme of, “leave us out of it”.

Country life is simple and small and that means it’s very difficult to bring passion to a event that started in a big city.

Some may care, but not to the level of killing each other over it.

That’s why the “outsiders” had to be brought in.

Odessa is another story and will lead to a more dramatic outcome.

Odessa could be spark the Tsar is really looking for, if he is looking for a “spark”!

Ask yourself this question from the view of the  Tsar’s glasses?

What is the rush?

Is the Russian economy going to fail?

Does it hurt the Tsar’s vision of the new Mother Russia if this goes on for the next several years?

Do we really know the answer?

If getting to the point that Ukrainians are actively and violently killing each other is what the Tsar’s plan is, the next question becomes, does that mean Russian forces will move in?

What better way to destroy the reputation of the new government than to let them spend three weeks prior to their election, killing their own people?

Is this why the President of the US warned the Russians to stay out of the pending elections?

Why be on the ground in a massive fight just prior to the elections?

Why validate the threat from Kiev’s perspective?

On the other hand, if you cannot allow the elections to take place, then you may be forced into action prior to the event.

I’ve said from the beginning this is not just about the Ukraine and in fact the Ukraine is only one phase of the Tsar’s master plan to reestablish the Russian Empire.

I’ve also stood by my theory that the Tsar was over confident on how events in the Ukraine would take placed.

Was the pending election something the Tsar anticipated?

If not, then we have our answer on his movement into the Ukraine.

If he did anticipate such an event, then he may be content with letting the Kiev leaders take the blame for killing fellow Ukrainians.

Three weeks is a long time, particularly when you are trying to stay alive.

Either way, the future of what takes place does not rest on what the West says or does.

The Tsar is calling the shots and we will have to wait to see what he has planned next.

THE TSAR AND THE REEMERGENCE OF MAY DAY!

Two days ago, I kept reminding myself to make sure I mentioned the May Day issue the day before it takes place.

Well,  I forgot and so….here ya go…. the May Day slant on the actual day.

First off, It seems a bit odd a man who sees himself as the new Tsar of Mother Russia would support a holiday that was blatantly a mark of the communist past in his country.

Then, I figured it out.

Like so many other events in his life, Putin has designed a way to turn what was once proclaimed as the greatest single celebration day in the communist word, into a celebration of “ Mother Russia”!

If something works, just steal the idea and proclaim it as your own….yep.. the KGB just keeps coming out in the new Tsar.

Two parts issues grabbed my attention as I was reading the attached article.

1.  The statement about the popularity of Mr. Putin.
1. It was not that long ago, many were writing about his reelection but with diminished popularity that would lead to “limited” abilities to achieve his goals for Russia.
2. My how things changed and not by accident.
2. The photos:

1. Look at the faces in the crowd…Young and full of energy!
2.  Youth that believes in the Tsar and youth that is proud of what Russia is doing.

Nationalism is alive and well in Russia as it is in the land of the Dragon.

Young people who believe the time has come for their respective countries to show the world the influence they will have.

Where is this youthful vigor in the West / US ?

Does it not exist?

No.

It’s there but in dwindling numbers and that is far more dangerous than witnessing a parade in Moscow.

Visions of pending “greatness” in the land of the Bear and the land of the Dragon.

In the West?

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-stages-first-red-square-may-day-parade-124330452.html;_ylt=AingBOIHHfHMrq21hTwuTF_QtDMD;_ylu=X3oDMTBscWpyN3YzBGNvbG8DZ3ExBHBvcwM5BHNlYwNzcg--

  A MORE CONFIDENT KILLER.. WHY ASSAD HAS BECOME SO.

A few weeks ago, I spoke to the issue of the declining support the Eye Doctor seem to be suffering from when it comes to the Tsar and the Persians.

Some of the more proficient writers in the Middle East were going as far as to predict the collapse of Assad’s support; indeed it appeared his usefulness had run its course.

So, what has changed?

Why would a man who was facing the withdraw of the only support that was keeping him in power dramatically increase his “game”?

Back when I commented on this trend, I had the opinion his actions were based upon needing to show his Masters he was still capable of achieving what he thought was their goal

Bottom line, I was one of those who would buy into the theory Assad desperate to stay in power.

Have I changed my opinion?

Perhaps and let me explain why I say that.

Back to my second most favorite game.. second only to the “let’s assume” game, the game of “ what if”.

What if:

What if the Assad was told to increase the violence?

What if the Tsar gave the orders to Assad’s Persian Masters to make the West understand things could get worse and not just in the Ukraine?

What if the game was no longer about Syria, as if it ever was, but about showing the West who could really influence what takes place in the region?

What if:

What if Assad took it upon himself to turn up the violence based upon being told the West no longer cared what took place in Syria as their eyes had once again turned to what was truly important to them……Europe?

What if:

What if Assad knows his support is dwindling and time is running out to secure what is left of Syria and by the way, there is not much left!

Ok, enough with the “what if” game; it often leads nowhere!

The facts are easy to see; Assad has begun to a real effort to inflict pain on his enemies.

Barrel Bombs…. Chemical Weapons…..and not a qualitative response from the West.

Why?

We know why.

How many crisis’s does the West truly wish to contend with at one time?

The answer is less than one!

Are these acts by Assad going to go unanswered?

Well, it depends on who you think the answer should come from.

If you think the West’s response was limited in the past, being polite here, then you realize what to expect!

Who else might step up?

The Ottomans?

No… Not unless Egodan needs a conflict to solidify his next election.

Besides, he is far too interested in what is taking place next-door to him with Eastern Europe and the Tsar.

The Dragon?

Ya….right….

Ok; how about the Arabs?

Remember them?

The Arab League / country club boys!

Perhaps, but only if the Saudi’s decide to tell the West to go home and set a course of their own in the region.

What was the exercise, the largest one they have held, about?

Think about it.

If the Saudis the time has come to pull out the stops in Syria, the evidence will be easily detected.

If the Western restrictions are removed, then Saudi may make their next statement after their noticeable War Game this week…..

In the long run, the actions of Assad over the past two months only point to one undeniable fact.

The West / US / influence in the region is falling apart and fewer and fewer countries seem to care.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/545369-syrian-jets-strike-arsal

BALANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.. IT’S CONTINUES TO SLIP AWAY!

How long has Western intelligence known the Saudis have DF-3 missiles?

Well, we would hope since the time they showed up, but this is not always the case.

I could tell you about a conversation I had with a Saudi Prince twenty-four years ago, but I won’tJ

For the sake of moving on with this posting, let’s assume, yep my favorite game, everyone knew the Saudis had these weapons….. to include the Iranian!

Does owing a nuclear capable missile mean nuclear weapons are actually in the possession of the country that displays the missiles?

Obviously not!

Would the Chinese have sold the Saudis nukes nearly 30 years ago?

No.

Did the Saudi’s finance the Pakistani nuclear weapon’s program?

For the most part…yes… or so goes the rumor!

Did the Paks develop a warhead that would fit on a DF-3?

Now, this is where the answers start to get a little fuzzy!

Would the Paks provide such a warhead to the Saudis?

A complicated answer would go here, but honestly it would take too long and drive this posting off track.

Could Pakistan deliver such a device to the Saudis or anyone else without Western Intelligence knowing?

Yep… Another complicated answer… avoided….

Ok, let’s give up on the real complicated tactical questions and concentrate on the strategic topic at hand.

Everyone, well, nearly everyone, agrees the balance in the Middle East is changing and it’s changing in coordinated and uncoordinated movements.

Story after story has been put out there over the issue of the dwindling alliance between the US and Saudi and how Saudi is looking for new  “partners”!

A Saudi – Pakistan “relationship” is not new and it’s not half-baked in its purpose.

If what Saudi did at the end of the exercise known as Abdullah’s Sword had the intention of sending a “message” to the West, then the results may be disappointing, at least for now.

“Don’t overreact” …. That is the golden rule of the current US administration and most of the US news media follows the orders on a consistent schedule.

Was it “Big News” the Saudi’s showed the DF-3?

If you asked the US DoS or DoD, the answer would most likely be a very scripted, “no”!

Who was the targeted audience for this Saudi message?

Iran?

Yes.

The West / US / ?

Yes!

Did it work?

Remember…… “Don’t overreact”….

With the Persians… now is not the time for a war of words with the Arabs who found oil.

So, did the message go unheard?

Not hardly!

When you read this story, it’s who attended that should catch your eye.

Is it the first time Pac DV’s attended an event in Saudi?

No.

Is it the first time they have attended the Abdullah’s Sword event?

Good question.

If the message presented by this even was aimed towards the West / US / and the Persians, who else may have been paying attention?

The Tsar?

Oh ya.

The Dragon?

Yep.

The Israelis?

Uhm… Add them to the list of those who knew what was in Saudi and you can probably add knowing where it was… how many.. and how good the crews are.

This may not have been, on the surface, the dramatic event the Saudis were anticipating, if they were anticipating drama…. They often specialize in “messages…. Inside of messages”, but I will tell you what it absolutely was.

It was and is just another indication of what direction the region is heading and the reality is those who called the shots for the region, the West, have all but lost that once exclusive and often abused privilege.

The region continues to move…movement brought on by the death of American Exceptionalism and the all too predictable outcome of that death…. The Arab Spring.

The Universal law of the physical universe… Balance!

It has been disrupted in the Middle East and now perhaps Europe.

What happens with balance is lost?

Yep…  you know the answer!

http://www.debka.com/article/23878/Saudis-parade-nuclear-missiles-for-the-first-time-in-defiance-of-US-Iranian-nuclear-accord

THE NEW “ NEW WORLD ORDER”.. WHO ARE THE MEMBERS?

Time and time again the conversation of changing attitudes and failing relationships has been the centerpiece of Western analysis of the Middle East.

After endless rounds of discussion, the one point that can made with regards to Egypt is the classical comment of, “what is old is new again”!

A reemerging relationship between Egypt and the Tsar is no unintended consequence of the Arab Spring.

Once again the death of American Exceptionalism comes to center stage.

If there is anything the Tsar may not have anticipated, and there is most likely not much when it comes to international affairs, it might be the eagerness the West / US / seem to have with shoving Egypt back into the arms of the Russians.

A deliberate act by the West / US ?

Probably not.

A result of a completely dysfunctional foreign policy that has little to no coordination with  so called Allies?

Yep.

So, if we accept the pending “relationship” between Egypt and the Tsar, keep one vital question in mind.

What of the Ottomans?

The more we hear of this new found love, the more we need to wonder what it all means to Egodan as he seeks to rise to the ranks of Sultan.

Has the West / US / thought this part of the relationship game through?

Hard to tell when you watch the actions of the US Department of State or the ever confusing messages from the EU.

What does the Tsar think his growing relationship with Egypt means to the Ottomans?

Now, that is even a better question.

As the US becomes more and more accustomed to the idea of watching from the sidelines, something its current leadership indorses, the concern should move towards, what’ next on the Tsar’s mind?

Should the West be concerned over a growing reemerging relationship between the Tsar and Egypt?

Yes.

Is the West in a position to truly impact the outcome of such an event?

With each passing day the answer becomes clearer.

No!

Here’s a closing issue that should be food for thought.

Who’s next on the Tsar’s list of “new friends”?

Israel?

Think that sounds outrageous?

Think again.

Saudi / Qatar……. The Turks?

Look, the Tsar has a vision and that vision is based upon a West that has absolutely no resolve to stop his vision; his version of the “New World Order”.

Once the conspiracy theorist in the US talked of the emphases, “ New World Order”.

Here is what may easily become the most tragic truth of the young 21^st century.

The New “ New World Order”, just may not have the US or Western Europe as voting members.

New World Order?

Yes.

Without the historical Western power brokers?

That is becoming more and more plausible.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/egypt-russia-foreign-policy-diversify-washington.html

RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE AND WHY THEY HAVE TO GO “BIG”!

Yesterday,  I commented on how the Tsar may execute Russia’s operation into the Ukraine.

What I failed to mention, or reemphasize, was the reality that this process was already well underway and had been for several months if not longer.

But, as I promised, let’s look at the tactical issues of the Russian operation and understand why in the long run, the reality will be they will have to go “BIG” or risk losing the intimidation factor they seem to be enjoying right now.

The so called experts have talked from time to time about the tremendous advantage, technology and numbers wise the Russian have over what is left of the Ukrainian military and how an actual kinetic fight between the two would be “lopsided”!

Is the Ukrainian military degraded?

Absolutely!

Trust… training…… logistical legs… these are all issues that limit the Ukrainian forces from executing combined arms operations.

Is the advantage so overwhelming the Russian Commanders are convinced they can limit their commitment to a pending conflict?

Absolutely not!

First and foremost, every military combatant commander who is worth their paycheck never plans on underestimating their opponent…. The all want the same environment….overwhelming numbers both in manpower and in equipment.

Every good combatant Commander lives by the rule of “4 to 1”… it takes four offensive members to overwhelm one defensive member.

If you accept this principle of warfare, then you understand the numbers we keep hearing about along the Ukrainian border.

Now, even with superior numbers, most combatant commanders will still plan for in great detail for the issue they are worried most about.

What don’t they know?

What assumptions might be incorrect?

What have the intelligence experts miscalculated?

These are the issues that drive the commanders to increase their numbers and often slow their advancement timeline.

The true tactical issue at hand:

Are the Russian forces that superior to the Ukrainian forces?

Better communications gear?

Better intelligence?

Better armored units?

Better air assets?

Let me pose this point in another way.

What if the well anticipated and talked about “invasion” began and the first thing the media picked up on was something that was not going well for the Russians?

How disastrous would that be for the Tsar’s worldly image?

What if our intelligence actually was able to witness a “state of the art.. .or so the Russians claim, Combat Brigade and what was observed was poor execution?

What if the new 21^st century, rebuilt Russian Army was bogged down in taking a small village with a ragtag Ukrainian military?

Will the Russians have causality aversion like the West currently has?

Simply put, what happens to the Tsar’s status if the operation does go as well as the media insured the world that it would?

Does the Ukrainian military have to have a real victory over the mighty Russian machine in order to “win” the conflict?

How damaging is this possibility and how threatening is it to the military leaders of the Russian force?

Who calls the Tsar and says, “Yes Sir.. We are having difficulties, just like the BBC / Al Jazeera, Fox and CNN are reporting”!

Let’s look at this from a historical viewpoint.

What was the strategically theory behind the “ Big Red Machine”?

Overwhelming numbers and crushing force at all times!!!

That is what the Soviet Military was built upon and that is what the West feared for decades.

When Russia announced it’s “restructuring of it’s military, the message was based on a new way of conducting warfare…. Combined Arms operations with Joint Forces in the lead… something they never truly believed in.

This “modernization” concept did everything to show the world the “ new Russia”.

It did very little to doctrinally teach it’s young military leaders Joint / Combined / Asymmetric warfare!

As I have said in the past, if you don’t believe me, just go look at how they handled Grozny.

A few new units and a few well-placed placed governmentally controlled media reports is not enough execute a strategic shift in conducting warfare.

What the world is witnessing near the Ukraine are selected “showcase” units and a great deal of information operations!

I’m not convinced senior Russian military leaders believe they are going to gain control of a nation like Ukraine with a few non patch wearing Special Forces units… .hell… even most of the Western Senior Military Commanders don’t truly believe this is the future of warfare; thus the buildup we have witnessed.

When the time comes, the move into the Ukraine will be large….it will be fast… and it will require as little “risk” as possible.

Risk…. as in the reputation of the Tsar!