ASSAD REELECTION...DOES HE SEE THE CHANGE?

 I found this to be an interesting article by a superior writer on the issues of the Middle East that addresses an issue I’ve talked about for over a year now.

Again; back to the question of, “what price does Hezbollah pay for entering the conflict in Syria”?

If you have followed my opinions on this topic, you know I’ve predicted the transformation of Hezbollah and even the demise of what it initially stood for.

As I have said in the past, an organization with a prolonged operational engagement runs the inherent risk of, “you are no longer one of us…. You were not there”!

So, what could be pulling Hezbollah apart and what does it mean to their future?

Does Assad, as the author states in this attached article, risk Hezbollah getting too much credit for gaining ground in the conflict?

Great question, if you accept the premise that Assad has “gained ground / momentum”

 Side Note:  All save that argument for the end of this post.

Let’s look at what Hezbollah potentially going against them.

Popularity:

 Do the people of Lebanon believe Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria benefited Lebanon….. are the people of Lebanon safer than before Hezbollah entered Syria?

No!

Trust:   

Does Assad “trust” Hezbollah….. does Hezbollah “trust” Assad?

Are they both just convenient partners both dancing to the fiddle of the Persians?

Where is the trust now inside the Hezbollah?

What has changed?

Who has paid the price for battles in Syria and who has sat back in Lebanon and sipped Tea while writing colorful speeches and making money in the Black Market / Drug world?

What price has “fatigue” placed on the internal workings of Hezbollah?

What new Alliances are now made and who dreams of being the new “Boss”?

Support: 

Do the Persians really care about Hezbollah’s popularity in Lebanon or are they still what they have always been, a weapon in a pending war with Israel?

If Assad sees Hezbollah as a threat to his status in Syria, does he deal with his Persian masters to negate Hezbollah’s status or does he limit the movement of logistics from Iran to Lebanon?

A lot of question here, but one fact remains; what is the future of Hezbollah in Syria and what impact will that future have to the very future of the organization?

Ok, back to the side note I mentioned earlier; the “progress” Assad has made over the past few months.

Are the streets of Damascus safer now than last year?

Does Assad’s photo hang from the walls on any buildings in Aleppo, what is left of Aleppo….. the industrial hub of what was Syria.

And that is my point; what is left of Syria?

What has Assad really regained “control” over?

 Syria will never function again as it did prior to this conflict.

Assad’s dream of surviving the storm and then getting back to business as usual is gone!

Here is the issue he simply is incapable of understanding.

Not just Syria has changed!

The entire region has changed.

Alliances have changed, are changing and will change.

Two weeks ago, I wrote of the apparent fleeting support by the Tsar and the Persians!

Who is Assad trying to convince as he approaches the elections?

What was true three years ago is no longer so.

Does Assad understand this?

No.

Do the Persians and the Tsar?

Yes!

I’ve said this before, but it’s worth saying over and over again.

When you get right down to it, not just the Middle East or the region has changed or is changing… the whole world balance is changing.

The question becomes where does a small little slice like Assad fit in?

Three years ago, he was the talk of the town…. Now… all of Europe is under threat of “change” and Assad’s world is shoved to the rear.

Chemical weapons used again over the past few weeks and did anyone even care?

What I find almost comical is the very idea that an election in Syria is even worth talking about!

For an eye Doctor, you would think he would have better “vision” than he does!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/543798-a-tense-alliance

PUTIN AND  MR. PUSHKIN…

So  some level of ‘compromise” was reached over the current status of Eastern Ukraine?

As there are with any international “deal”, levels of the details will not be revealed to the outside world and some levels of the “deal” will be presented to the parties who were not there to vote, is a different manner than what is shown to the public.

You can always tell this has happened as soon as the “official” story is released and active members of the event state their denial or terms that differ from what was released.

 So when members like Denis Pushkin jump to the microphone and start pouring cold water on the so called “deal”, what does it mean?

Did the Tsar really, truly have the dreams and wishes of people like Mr. Pushkin in mind when he launched this phase of rebuilding the Russian Empire?

Silly question I know, but one that drives home my point about what is really taking place in the Ukraine.

Let’s look at this from another set of eyeballs; the Pro Russian eyeballs!

Does Mr Pushkin and his followers owe their loyalty to the Tsar or to the vision of Ukraine they dream of?

Simply put, does Puskin and those like him see themselves as puppets of the Tsrar?

Well……the Tsar certainly does!

Now, the Tsar is no dummy, far from it, and that makes me ask the next question.

What does he really expect from this “deal” and how did he anticipate the Pro-Russian movement to react?

Before he ever sat down at the talks, he knew exactly what he wanted out of them and he understood what he would have to say and or agree to in order to reach that desired end state.

On the other hand, I would be willing to bet the desired end state for the West / US / was for the whole thing to simply calm down or even better yet….go away!

Side note:  I simply can’t forget the famous accidently captured conversation between the President of the US and the Russian; paraphrase ‘just wait until I’m reelected’!!!!

So, let me get back to my point today.

If the Tsar agreed to something he knew the Pro Russian forces would not accept, then I assume…my favorite gameJ…. He anticipated the failure of this agreement.

A failure he had in mind long before the formal talks took place.

It also appears the Western governments were not naive enough to take the Tsar at his word.

The “Show me” statements ran in the media within 24hrs as they should have.

One fact seems to be holding true and it’s a phenomenon that I believe is also taking place in Lebanon.

The people of Ukraine seem to be reluctant to want to kill each other!!!!

The problem is for the Tsar; that simply will not meet his goals.

If someone is reluctant to start the shooting on a scale large enough to execute the next phase of the Tsar’s plan, well then; he will simply have to arrange someone else to get it done!

Final Note:

I’ve said from day one, the fatal error in overconfident planning, such at the Tsar may have done, is to underestimate the ones you abuse.

Mr Pushkin and those like him may grow tired of the Tsar’s abuse over time and nobody knows that more than the Tsar.

Mr Pushkin needs to  be very careful…he may wake up dead!!!

THE SACKING OF PRINCE SULTAN…AGAIN!!!

Two good articles here that both address the same issue, but from different topics.

In the world of  international affairs and more importantly money, the rules never really apply or only do so as long as the public is paying attention.

It’s the reason most surviving governments refine the art of distraction; keep the public looking in the other direction.

Everyone should also understand the real relationship between the US and Saudi is inside the oil industry.

This process has the ability to survive individual “visions” and in the case of the US that is usually based on a eight year cycle.

So, does the apparent pending divorce between the US and Saudi mean the end of an alliance?

Have the political winds in the West changed so much that alliances will dissolve and or realign or will the cycle of relationships reestablish at the end of the eight year cycle?

 Here is the interesting point.

One of the answers doesn’t reside inside the Department of State or the Department of Commerce.

It rest with the oil industry…. The international oil industry!

Where are the profits to be made?

Who is willing to support the process and how much money could be made?

Profit decides who really talks to each other officially or unofficially.

Does the oil industry talk to Iran?

Next Question…. That’s my point…

The other answer as to the survival of alliances is conflict!

Conflict shapes the future and even then that is sometimes temporary.

The issue of the West reaching out to the Persians and the resistance to this process by the Saudis is the emotional sticking point and it’s also the most dangerous flashpoint for conflict.

None of this is new to anyone who lives in the world of international “relationships”!

But, like with any other profession, there are those who are good at what they do and there are those who are not!

The example I’ll give rest with the case of Prince Bandar Sultan.

Is Prince Bander a known “friend” of the Bush family?

Yes.

Are the Bush’s closer to the oil industry than the current administration?

Yes!

Is there the chance the feelings toward the Prince as based upon something as petty as resenting his relationship with a political and ideological foe?

Sadly the answer is most likely yes.

Are we making decision that will impact the entire region of the Middle East based upon personal beliefs and grudges?

Well, it will not be the first time something so unprofessional has taken place in world affairs.

Prince Sultan speaks for the King, but forcing the royal family of Saudi to remove him because of his personal “relationship” with the political enemy in another country, well, I won’t type what I would call that!

The Western “vision” of where the Middle East should be is more than confusing; it’s dangerous!

The oil industry will survive and profits will be secured.

Who gains those profits that is what the conflicts will determine.

But, letting personal grudges filter into the process; well…..like I said…. There are those who are good at what they do and there are those who are not!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/gulfnews/543728-saudi-spy-chief-ousted-under-us-pressure-experts

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/us-saudi-obama-visit-drifting-apart.html

SNOWDEN DIALS IN TO THE TSAR SHOW……WHY?

So the Tsar’s annual telethon was scheduled for the same day all the Western Nations, the UN and Russia were going to talk about the Ukraine?

What a coincidence!

There are no coincidences in the Tsar’s world…. Not according to his way of thinking.

Was this a propaganda event for the Tsar?

Yes.

Was it for his people or for the rest of the world?

Yes.

Was the Snowden skit part of the act?

Next question!

Now, back to my point about there being no such thing as a coincidence in the Tsar’s world.

Ignoring for the moment what the message was to his people, let me take a shot at what his game plan was for the outside audience and why Mr Snowden was mixed into the show.

First off, do not overlook what he said.

He openly restated, restated because he has said it time and time again, that he retains the right to move into the Ukraine if needed.

That is the baseline message given just prior to the much anticipated and way over emphasized “talks” being held today.

So, first and foremost, the message was not just a message, but a warning!

Already this morning, the paid talking heads are trying to make this week’s paycheck by attempting to answer why Snowden was utilized.

Before I get into why the Tsar did it, let me assure you why Mr Snowden agreed.

He is a puppet and a very small one, of the Tsar and his ability to take his next breath depends on what the Tsar decides with each passing day.

“You will call in and you will ask the following question and you will say nothing else”; that is just about how this came about.

What is the Tsar’s message with the Snowden puppet?

“Don’t forget what I own”!!

What has Snowden not told the world yet  and there are many very damaging things or the Tsar would have little use for him now.

Again, remember, the purpose of this teleconference was to present the threat of interference with the Tsar’s Master Plan.

Just seeing his face show up on international TV with the Tsar gave Washington DC the cold chills!

Trust me, the “message” was understood, even by the dumbest of advisors in several Western nations.

What the world witnessed today was the Tsar showing off his international, diplomatic swordsmanship.

Just prior, hours, before a proclaimed “very important” meeting of the minds on the topic of the crisis in the Ukraine, the Tsar  displays his Buccaneer style and sprinkles a dash of salt on the slash political skin of the West… a salt named Snowden.

UKRAINE’S “ANTI TERRORISM” DISASTER!

A few weeks ago, when it was announced the new government in the Ukraine  was going to form a “National Guard”, I commented on why this would be taking place and how the new government had no real idea who could be trusted inside the Ukrainian military.

For the past few days I’ve addressed the issue of “planning” and how this so called Anti Terrorism operation was most likely far more complicated  than the new government of Ukraine  was capable of pulling off.

So, what happened today?

How is it that the much announced “anti terrorism” operation in Eastern Ukraine turned into a photo op for the pro Russian side?

My hunch is a few things may have happened and none of them bold well for the new government in Kiev.

First off, if the Ukrainian government utilized members of this new “National Guard” force, one that has a little over a month of training, then the outcome the world witnessed was more than predictable.

If this response force had members from that region of Ukraine, then the reluctance to combat their fellow countrymen was again more than predictable.

So, let’s go back to my point of the past few days; poor planning by unqualified planners can only lead to disaster and today was a disaster for Kiev.

What we are witnessing in the Eastern region of Ukraine is the clash between detailed, professional planning and panic planning exited by unprofessional planners.

Here is an example of what I’m talking about.

Rumors were all over the place today over the fact that many of the “Little Green Men”, the pro Russian men in matching uniforms with no patches, were from Crimea and were actually Ukrainian and not just Russian Special Forces; although they are also part of this processes.

A brilliant move on the Russian’s part!

Side Note:

Is not the Crimea now part of Russia; hence …are these troops in reality Russian troops?

I will admit, taking the airfield back yesterday did hint at some level of tactical response on the part of the new Ukrainian  government.

Airfields are prime initial targets of any Russian movement into the region and unlike in the Crimea, the Ukrainian military, what is left of it, seemed to figure that out.

Here is the bad news.

If the Russians decide to come, the forces at the recaptured airfield won’t hold for an hour or so.

So, what did today show us?

My opinion doesn’t hold well for the Ukrainian government, but the bad news doesn’t stop at Kiev.

What today showed the world is  the complete breakdown of what was left of the Ukrainian military and to what level the leadership must have been dismissed.

The plan that began to execute yesterday was a complete failure and it’s an ideation that any follow on action will be even more reckless.

The real bad news is, the next round of reckless operations will most likely lead to open conflict and that is exactly what the Tsar is counting on.

The Ukrainian military is all but dysfunctional and its ability to defend the new government is truly nonexistent.

A week or two of armed thugs killing each other and the media showing panicked civilians running for their lives will lead to calls for some form of intervention.

That call may come from Moscow before it comes from anywhere else and that my friends was the Tsar’s plan from day one!

As a reminder… The Ukraine is not the only phase of the Tsar plan to rebuild the Russian Empire.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27053500

RUSSIAN MILITARY IN EASTERN UKRAINE?

Once again the age old adage of,  “ a picture is worth a thousand words”, in this case a short YOUTUBE clip, drives home a point many seem to be missing.

First off, the Western intelligence community is capable of “knowing” if Russian troops, even special units, are operating on Ukrainian land.

The warnings that have officially come from not only the US, but other Western leaders addressing Russian “interference” in Eastern Ukraine are not based on speculation.

These statements are developed after close consultation with the intelligence agencies of multiple nations.

So, when I watched this clip shown by BBC, my theory I stated yesterday seemed all but cemented in fact.

If Eastern Ukraine is leaning towards Russia and the Russian backed government was in control of the country only months ago, then why would the civilian police departments in that region be anything but pro-Russian?

It’s the reason we have not seen and will not see a “combined” civilian / Military / operation to “Free” those captured facilities.

The forces now forming on the outskirts of these towns are not from that region and if we do see civilian law enforcement, they will not be from that region as well.

As for this Russian Col?

Notice how the Police Officers are paying attention to him?

Notice how they are not acting as if he is just some civilian nutcase belching out support to a group of recently turned supporters?

Hi mannerisms mimic a true military Commander and there is no doubt in my mind this clip is a legitimate event.

So what is about to happen?

Yesterday, I warned that a half-baked, unprofessional plan being launched is far more dangerous than doing nothing at all, but I am convinced that is exactly what is about to take place.

Remember, that is exactly what the Tsar is counting on!

A desperate act that is well covered and very poorly executed with unpredictable results plays right into his hands.

As for the much talked about phone call between the Tsar and the US President, what really matters is who called who?

Did the Tsar call the President?

Was it part of the Master Plan and simply fit the timeline of execution once the Russians saw the Ukrainian forces moving towards the Eastern Cities?

If that is true, then what was said or agreed to is most likely irrelevant.

I would be willing to bet the staging of forces just outside the towns is a last ditch effort to let politicians talk.

As soon as those forces make contact…. The time for talking will come to an end and the time of complete unpredictability will be upon us.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27022548

 KIEV’S EMPTY THREATS…..AND THE LACK OF "PLANS"

Well, back to the story that is the Ukraine and a quick comment about the threats of action by the new government in Kiev.

As most deadlines go the one that was all the talk yesterday passed.

The only question worth asking today is “why”; why did the deadline pass?

When this phase of the Tsar’s Master Plan to reestablish the Russian Empire began, I stated the real problem for the new Ukrainian leadership was actually being able to defend the country.

What percentage of the senior leaders really supported what took place in Kiev?

Yep; we talked about this once before, so let’s push passed this information loop!

Can the new government of Kiev, notice I don’t say the Ukraine given I’m not convinced they control mush outside of Kiev, actually coordinate a unified action between the civilian police, the slice they can trust, and the military and the slice they can trust?

Have they done their homework to the level required?

Do they really have the ability to execute a detailed operation that is absolutely packed with dangers for not only their leadership, but the leadership of Europe?

“ I give you until…..???... to stop what you are doing or else…..”

Was that commitment to action thought out and were professional planners involved in preparing a detailed plan for such an event?

My bet is that didn’t even come close to taking place.

Detailed operations require detailed, professional planning.

Someone who was, just a few months ago, a regional economic advisor to the deputy assistant of something or another, is completely incapable of overseeing a detailed civilian / military / coordinated event.

A retired “Friend” of the revolution of someone who was once in the military or a mid level civilian law enforcement member still doesn’t have the tools required to “plan” at this detail.

So, why did it not take place?

I’ll answer that by stating, thank God it didn’t take place!

What the Tsar is planning on is an unmitigated disaster with the media showing, worldwide, how out of control the event is becoming…. By the way… the first ones to use the term, “civil war” was whom…..Yep… Moscow.

So, what would it take for Kiev to actually execute what they warned would happen?

First off, the civilian / military planning process  would have to take place and that would take time, perhaps days…

Did the new government have this process underway knowing the troubles in that region of the country were bound to happen?

One would think, but with the processes of forming a new government and trying to determine who was pro-Russian and who was not,  makes this  a highly unlikely scenario.

If the new government placed this ultimatum without a plan, then the ability to integrate the forces / civilian / military / is nearly impossible.

This could explain why the civilian law enforcement agencies in the East have been virtually unseen for over a day now.

The even more ominous sign would be the fact the departments dissolved or worse, changed sides to the pro Russian movement.

If you ask me, I think this is exactly what took place and is still taking place.

That would mean the leadership in Kiev is now having to contemplate something far more difficult that retaking a few buildings.

How do you “invade” a whole region of your own country?

That is truly what I believe Kiev is up against.

That planning process takes time and it also takes people who know how to plan.

Who does Kiev have left that can accomplish such a task and can they be trusted.

As a reminder, senior leaders do not do detailed planning.

They give guidance and you better trust the working level staffs that have to put such a huge plan together.

As it’s been written, it’s probably being reviewed in Moscow!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27018199