JIHADIS... CRIMEA.... AND THE TSAR... JUST LIKE I SAID.       

If you search my postings for the word Tatars, you will see my comments from a two weeks ago on the pending threat of Jihadis entering the Ukrainian / Crimean event.

It turns out, the "Nafir" was announced just about the same time as my posting.

It also seems the age old saying of, " The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is also going to hold true, at least for now!

The pending alliance between Pravy Sektor and the radicals who will link up with the Tatars is probably a forgone conclusion.

The question becomes, did the Tsar and his planners anticipate this?

Can the Tsar use this as the predictable excuse to move further into the Ukraine?

His countries track record of dealing with such groups is less than stellar and all one has to do is look towards the Northern Caucasus to see my point.

If the Russians did build this scenario into their Master Plan, then the potential Tatar key players have long been Identified and when you are "identified" in Russia.. well we all know what that means.... There is no water boarding in Russia!!

That would lead me to ask one basic question!

Did any of the key members of the Tatars "disappear" prior to the actions in Crimea?

How long before we witness the first signs of " The resistance" in Crimea?

How will the Russians react?

Once again, we are back to my comment on how the Tsar, try as he may, cannot control every aspect of this crisis.

He may feel confident on controlling the West's actions, but the smaller, more radical Crazy Eddies... that is far different story.

Oh ya.. and if these Crazy   Eddie groups turn out to be Sunni......you can guess who the Tsar is going to blame for supporting them?

Hint.. Who did he blame in Libya?

UKRAINE AND THE ESCALATION OF "COUNTER MOVES".

Russia states it may change it's involvement in the Iranian Nuclear Program?

Israel has it's largest air operations in Syria to date?

Serbs hint at the issue of secessionism?

Who was it that said one of the most dangerous outcomes of the Ukrainian event would be Second / Third Orders of Effect.... The Law of Unintended Consequences?

I always hate to say, " I told you so"... but... " I told you so"!!!!

Here is the bad news.

These three actions are more than likely only the beginning of the Ukrainian fallout!

Why... there was even talk of Orthodox nations needing to come together!!!

Where have we heard that before....hint.... think 1854!

 While all of this was taking place, I couldn't help but notice the leadership of the US was in Eastern Europe and more or less....drawing "redlines" again!!!!

If you have three or four redlines that have been trampled out in front of you......do you really think the next "redline" is going to have any impact at all?

Is the message; "ok....this time we really...really mean it"?

An as for those countries where these new redline type of statements were made... take a guess what they think.... at least in private.

If I had to grasp for some example of minor success, I would wish the Israeli strike into Syria would be an example of the West letting the Tsar know not everything is going to go his way.

Here is the problem, I don't believe that to be the case...not at all!!!!

My theory is the reason we witnessed the largest air strike into Syria since the beginning of the conflict based upon an even more pressing problem for the West.

Israel's rapidly depleting trust in Western support.

In my opinion, the message was clear; " we are not the West".... We will not step backwards from a threat"!

What the IDF accomplished was to not only put Assad on notice, but Hezbollah as well.

It would be more than foolish for Assad to be convinced by the Tsar or the Persians that he can act like the Tsar and Israel will act like the West.

What is working for the Tsar could prove to be disastrous for Assad and his Puppet Master's in Tehran.

By the end of the day, one fact stands clear.

Where this is all heading is not just up to the President of the United States and the Tsar.

That is how the game was played in the "old" Cold War.

In this new version... many players have the will and capability to change the playbook and that makes this a far more dangerous Cold War than in the past.

CRIMEA AND CONFLICT.. IT CHANGED EUROPE ONCE BEFORE!

In 1853, England, France and the Ottoman Empire wanted no part of a large scale war.

On the other hand, Russia did; and with that........Europe went to war.

It couldn't happen again right?

I mean, it's the 21st century and everyone knows a regional conflict is bad for the economy and simply beyond the civilized beliefs of all the people in the region!

It simply can't happen.....right?

So, what does happen when one side decides they are willing to fight and the other side or sides just really doesn't want to?

Well, historically two things happen.

First, the side or sides that don't want to fight give ground on just about every issue that is placed on the table; usually one at a time, systematically with each "negotiated" topic a "sign" the conflict is going to be avoided.

Mr. Chamberlain comes to mind.

Yes, I am on record with my opinion that the Tsar doesn't want a regional war over the issue of the Ukraine, but what he wants and what he doesn't want can get lost in the emotions of the moment or overcome by "events".

What of an event such as a Ukrainian unit firing on a Russian detachment with losses on both sides?

What's the "plan" to keep that "event" from escalating?

What is the plan if after such an event; the Russian units crush the Ukrainian unit / units responsible for the "event"?

You see, the historical patterns of conflict have never really deviated from the simple truth that when one side commits to conflict the other side / sides / really have no choice!

In 1853 the British wanted no part of a total war with Russia and thus they opted for a limited conflict confined to the Red Sea and mostly Crimea.

It was a conflict that was to be "limited" in it's impact of Europe and by the time it was over , the stage was set for WWI and thus leading to the complete imbalance of the entire Middle East / Ottoman Empire!

The Crimean war of 1854 gave us more than the Charge of the Light Brigade and a modern modeling of military logistics.

The Crimean war gave the world an unbalanced Europe and cultural fragmentations that were compounded by the First World War to the point we sit were we are today with a Middle East designed by military Engineers.

As stated last night the Tsar only thinks he knows the outcome of the events taking place in the Ukraine.

He ether is confident of his Mater Plan or he doesn't care what ramifications may come.

His words on Tuesday were spoken not just to his "Comrades" in Moscow.

His "intent" may finally be coming to the surface.

Ignore those you don't respect and no longer fear.

Push Russia to the forefront and if the price is a "limited conflict" then so be it.

Remember... the British wish 1854 to be nothing more than a "limited conflict".

One side... willing if not wishing to fight and the other... floundering with even the concept of conflict.

I'm not sure how many Billionaires the West can "sanction" but my guess is the next real threat will have to have more than sanctions attached.

SANCTIONS ... "MORE THAN BUSH  IN 2008"!!!!ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Ok,  as I predicted, the "vote" took place and nothing really happened.

I say nothing really happened simply because, to the Tsar's people the so called sanctions announced today in the US and Europe.... well... they amounted to nothing.

What I was stunned by was the argument by some in the US that President Bush didn't even execute sanctions against Russia for the actions in Georgia in 2008!!!

Really...It's been over five years... How much longer does the current US administration continue to compare what does and doesn't do with the Bush years?

As I said last week, the backers of the Tsar are as financially safe now as they were before the crisis in the Ukraine started and that explains the lackadaisical response today.

Having said that, let's take a look at what the current "perception" environment most likely is in Europe, not to mention other parts of the world.

If you were in... let's say...Poland.... and you heard the actions taken by the European Union and the US today, what comfort level would it give you?

How about if you were not pro Russian and you lived in Moldova?

What would be your gut feeling about support from the US or the EU if you lived somewhere that use to have a Soviet flag flying on your land?

When you heard how the US could increase fuel exports to pressure the Tsar in the one area he worries about... fuel profits.... and at the end of the discussion you heard absolutely nothing about this increased action taking place..... what would you think?

If you were a Muslim Tatar in the Crimea; after today's results.. who would you start contemplating turning to?

If you lived in the part of Europe; soon to be all of Europe, that felt most threatened by the new Tsar's hunger for power, how confident would you be in your "independent" future?

Ok, here comes my next question.

Just how serious is the Tsar about physically controlling Europe... all of Europe?

Is that what he really wants?

Does he want the Russian flag flying in Berlin.... Paris...?

Well, if we were talking about anyone other than Mr. Putin, I would quickly answer no!

Having said that, I am still convinced that is not the Tsars goal!

So; just how big of a threat is this more forwardly aggressive Putin?

It's a very hard question to give a definitive answer to, but my gut tells me the hype is growing larger than the intent.

The world media loves a story and the world of social media is truly an unregulated rumor machine.

It would be easy to say, "we will all wake up tomorrow and the world will mostly likely be just the same as it has been for years"!

Here is the problem with the, ' I'm not worried about it" camp!

Although the Tsar and his followers have a vision of what the new Russia will look like, the path of implementation will do as it has always done.... create second and third order effects....

Ah yes... If you know me, you know I have drifted into one of my favorite topics;
" The Law of Unintended Consequences"!!!!!

Putin had and has a "plan"..

The world has and will react... overreact!

Key parts of the world will under react.. ( insert the word 'sanctions here)!

Under reaction will lead to have hazard over reaction based upon internal political pressure...In the West.. everyone has to get reelected and if you are seen as "weak".. then your odds go way....way .... down!!!

So, it's like this.

Putin's plan probably doesn't call for the Russian flag in Berlin... at least I not at this time!

Making money and gaining respect... those are the key goals of the new Tsar.. my bet!!

The trouble is... his actions will set into motion other events...even in other parts of the world... that have absolutely nothing to do with his original plan.

And that is the future... that we all must fear....

Things will not be the same after the events of the Ukraine..... just as they have not been the same after the events of the Arab Spring.. Just ask the GCC....

Putin knows where he wanted this all to end up, but does he realize as much as he would like to think other wise... he doesn't control the entire process?

It's the historical downfall of methodical Tyrants.

BEFORE THE UKRAINE BURNS.. LETS GO BACK TO THE GCC ISSUES!

Yesterday, I stated the only way the events of the Crimean referindum would pull me away from addressing the issues surounding the GCC was if the Russians took the next step in their Master Plan in the Ukraine.

Well, if you listened to the Ukrainian spokesman from Kiev today, you might believe that next phase was underway.

The stories of Russian troop movements into key towns that support critical infrastructure support to the Crimean started popping up today, but nobody is really sure how much of this is "hype" and how much of this is fact.

Again, pictures are worth a thousand words and the pictures of Russian air assets in key border towns seem to be unavailable.... at least right now.

So, lets see what tomorrow brings to the world's table and we shall move on from there.

Now, back to the topic worthy of discussion, at least for now; the GCC and why it's under pressure.

Several times over the past two or three years, I've mentioned the issue of the failing relationship between the GCC leaders and the "West / US".

As I was reading the attached story tonight,  a very well written piece by the way, I convinced myself the time had come to once again comment on the consequences of what obviously seems to be the new US policy towards the Middle East.

Again, the simple truth of the matter is, the GCC is continuing to lose confidence in the relationships with the US and the West.

As this confidence slides, the comfort level of survival slides proportionately!

Those who have always been seen as somewhat on the fence are now being identified as potential enemies.

Is the rift between Qatar and the Saudi government for real?

You bet it is!

Is this "change" the direct result of the changed US policy towards the Middle East?

Is this "rift" a byproduct of the ongoing paranoia brought on by the Arab Spring.. an Arab Spring that was supported by the West / US?

Yep!

 What the world has witnessed last week was more than a fracture surfacing in the GCC.

What the world witnessed last week was the destabilization of the GCC at a time when the stability of the GCC could be fare more destructive than in the past.

Yes, several of the GCC members have had their differences in the past, but this is not the 70s and this is not about bragging rights.

The balance of power in the Middle East is faltering and the policies of the West / US are doing little to stabilize the pending crisis.

Yes the situation in the Ukraine is dangerous and yes it could lead to rising tensions between old enemies, but other regions of the world and the events taking place there cannot be overlooked and what took place last week with the GCC is a dangerous reminder of that truth.

Again and again, the effects of a decisive leader in the region / the US /  changing it's course and doing so with what appears to be little coordination with "old friends" is having an impact that many will not be able to predict.

I may very well go back to addressing the events of the Ukraine by this time tomorrow, but what is taking place in the Middle East must be addressed.

A weakened, destabilized and fractured GCC will be a prime target of the Persians and a aggressive Tsar who sees everything going his way.

"Nothing will really change".

If that is the thought process of those who should be listening, then we all better be ready for other "changes" that will seem to come right out of the clear blue sky.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/539078-saudi-moves

THE UKRAINE AND THE FEVER PITCHED.. WHAT IF'S?

As much as I would like to speak to the issue of the ongoing disturbance in the force called the GCC...  I will end up spending one more night on the Ukrainian issue before I just sit back to watch what happens after this Sunday.

I promises all my followers who cover the Middle East, I will get back to the topic of the GCC on Saturday.... barring of course a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

Ok, I've heard just about every talking head I think could possibly fit their way on to the theater now know as modern day news media and their "opinions" of what is going to happen with the pending Crimean referendum.

Here is what is going to happen.

The vote will be to join, in the near future not right away...something the Tsar's people demanded would be placed in the verbiage of the victory speech... the Russian federation.

The announcement will not be recognized by the current government in Kiev and it will not be recognized by the West.

Moscow will announce they understand the concerns of the Crimean people and will begin the "process" to find a " workable solution with all parties".

More Russian troops will move into the Crimean.

The more radical side of the Tatars will begin to organize their "resistance".. even thought the Tsar had their leader in a meeting asking him to go along with the Russian plan.

The West will used worlds like, "outrageous.... unacceptable.... unrecognized.... ect...ect..". and in the end...doing absolutely nothing.. physically.

The current government of the Ukraine will announce the do not recognize the referendum results, but will do little to physically react to it.

                                                                                                                   

And the Tsar... Oh yes..... the Tsar.... Well.... He will look to his key staff and quietly say, "lets move on to the next phase now"!

So, Sunday's vote will pass.... the war of words will be full steam and may overtake, finally after a week, the mystery flight in Asia......

But, the simple fact is, nothing will change... not unless the Russian decide to take the Master Plan to the next phase or the Tatars are far more prepared to create disruption than most give them credit for.

And you see... it's for that exact reason, by Saturday night, I will move back to the topic that I truly wish to address and that is the GCC!

Until then, keep listening to the talking heads on the media if you have absolutely nothing else to do with your time.

As for me...... I'm going to play HALO.. yep old school... and get ready to talk about the shift in the Middle East everyone is overlooking....

See you all on Saturday! Night that is:)

UKRAINE'S "NATIONAL GUARD" ? WHAT IS THE REAL REASON?

Last week, I spoke to the issue of how the Ukrainian military might be more divided than many realized and how the ousted President may have insured the Military would not follow new leadership that is simply based upon protest in Kiev.

Again and again I have reminded everyone just how detailed the planning process by the Russians may have been and how anticipating having to split the Ukrainian military to insure it was not combat effective was most likely a priority of effort.

Continue this concept by considering how reluctant the new government would be to even hint to the outside world there was dissension amongst the ranks of the Ukrainian military?

Yet, if the new leadership truly had evidence or a strong perception of this being true, then the question of forming a "new defense force" might just be logical.

Short version of this question!

Is the development of the new Ukrainian National Guard an indication the Ukrainian military may be more divided, thus ineffective, than anticipated?

As much credit as I have given the Russian military planning process, I'm not sold on the idea they anticipated a formal National Guard realignment.

In a Chess game where the new government and the West have been losing almost every move, this National Guard concept may be the first indication of a offensive victory.

Now, I say that, but you can bet the Russian reaction to the National Guard announcement will sound something like this; "we do not recognize a formal alignment of Fascist groups into a military organization".

So, does this National Guard concept indicate trouble in the Ukrainian military forces and their questionable loyalty to the new government in Kiev?

My opinion is yes; it means exactly that.

As to the tactical capabilities of this new concept, I would suggest we wait to see who makes up these new units?

If they are bits and pieces of existing units, then I think we have our answer.

Will this new concept be capable of defending large portions of Ukrainian land?

It depends on what they are trying to defend against.

On the other hand, if the rumors of Russian forces massing on the Ukrainian border are true, and I believe they are, then this new National Guard concept will be nothing more than a prime example of a too little and too late.

My bet is, we shall see sooner than we think.