THE PENDING BATTLE FOR QALAMOUN

Before I say once again, "I'm back", I must admit, I think it's true this time!

In the past week, I had the privilege to make a new acquaintance with an individual that is a recognized writer and one sharp individual.

So, to my new friend Ted, I have only one request.

Please don't judge my knowledge of the Middle East based upon my... let us say.... writing style!  Be kind and look at the "big picture"... please!

Ok, now to topic of the day, at least from my perspective.

In the past few weeks, a great deal of talk has been circulating over the pending battle for the town of Qalamoun.

If you've been following the Syrian Civil War, then you understand the significance of this location not just from the perspective of supplies to the Sunni Rebels, but to the people of Lebanon in general.

Is this small little town more relivent than other past conflicts throughout Syria?

Yes!

Why?

Ask the people of Lebanon!

For nearly two years now, the peaceful people of Lebanon, and that is most of the population there, have been worried over what real event would trigger a response so important that their country would finally be pulled into the Syrian conflict completely.

So many of the Western "talking heads" have predicted the future of Lebanon it's frankly hard to remember all the different "theories" as to what will happen and when.

So again, why is this pending conflict for Qalamoun different?

Simple; because the people of Lebanon truly believe this battle is the breaking point.

You see, they don't weigh Qalamoun by it's singular importance.

To the Lebanese, Qalamoun is the culmination of a process that has been underway for almost two years.

If that doesn't worry those who are trying desperately to keep Lebanon from the flames of Syria, than all you have to do is look at the statements coming from Hezbollah in the past week.

Nothing is a better indicator of a pending conflict having significant importance than one side of the conflict telling the world how important the event will become.

Hezbollah's statements about the pending defeat of Saudi backed forces, yes they called out the Saudis, in the coming battle is nothing shy of drawing a "redline"..... and we all know what happens when you draw redlines in the Middle East!

As for this calling out of the Saudis, well in my opinion, it's not the brightest move I've seen young members of Hezbollah make.

Young men and their mouths have a tendency to be over played in the region and we can only hope the Hezbollah Puppet masters back in Iran will make the final decision on just how bad Qalamoun becomes.

Sidebar:   With all the talk of the big pending battle of Qalamoun, perhaps the Sunni groups should ask Hezbollah what happened to the "great assault on Aleppo?

Is the taking of Qalamoun the Iran plan for taking the prize.... Aleppo?

If so, that's one poor developed plan... Just ask the Ottomans and their supply lines.

And just how is all this talk being received in the GCC / Saudi?

Unless you've been under a rock for the past few days, you have read or heard the story of the Saudi's announcement of their changing "relationship" with the US.

Things have not gone well for the GCC in the past two months and the statement by Hezbollah that they are going to defeat Saudi supported operations in some decisive battle, well, once again I would go back to my comment about young Arab men and their mouths.

A few weeks ago, all the talk was about the apparent withdraw of Hezbollah forces from the Syrian battlefield....

The intelligent talk centered around why they were moving the units they were and what did it really indicate?

Perhaps we now know!

Perhaps the movement was nothing more than reinforcing the "home front" because they now realized the battle was soon to come to the Motherland... Lebanon!

Is the pending battle for Qalamoun really the next phase of the Syrian conflict?

Here is who I think will have a vote.... the Persians... the Tsar and the GCC / Saudi.

Here is who will not have a vote... the Western world.

If American Exceptionalism  is dead and ridding in the coach section of seating is now where the US sits, then watching a pending crash is probably about all we can do.

Let's just hope the peaceful people of Lebanon continue to hang on and keep their country from sliding into the Abyss.

 https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/lebanonnews/516591-kataeb-urges-international-intervention-to-counter-qalamoun-battle

SYRIA... IRAN... HEZBOLLAH... THE TSAR... AND THE BIG PICTURE SNAPSHOT.

It's been more than difficult to keep up with my postings for the past few weeks and I am still trying to get back into a real rhythm and hopefully soon that will happen!!!

Ok, there is a great deal that we could talk about, but in the interest of getting back into a personal rhythm, let's take a look at what I use to call the, "Snapshot" for the region.

Lets start with what I consider one of the most interesting rumors in well over a year; the withdraw of Hezbollah forces from Syria.

Is it true?

Most likely the answer is yes.

Why is it taking place?

Ah... now there is the fascinating part of the story.

If you've followed my opinions of Hezbollah's actions in Syria, you will remember that I considered Hezbollah's movement into the Syrian Civil War as a huge strategic and even a tactical miscalculation.

The tide of the war was not in favor of Assad and his Puppet Masters in Iran pushed one of their most precious resources into the fight in a desperate attempt to save Assad.

If you remember, I said then and I still believe this would lead to Hezbollah's base becoming a prime target for the Sunni fighters and that is exactly what took place.

Not only did it take place, but it continues to take place and my bet is the worst is yet to come for the Hezbollah clans of Lebanon.

Saying the deployment into Syria was unpopular with the Hezbollah supporters was, and still is, an understatement.

What came next for Hezbollah would only make the dicey situation even worse.

Just when Hezbollah and their Persian Masters became convinced the West was finally about to intervene in Syria, the call went out for even a larger deployment of Hezbollah forces; a call that was not well received in Lebanon.

The fact these forces were set to defend against a highly anticipated Sunni counterstrike synchronized with the promised Western strikes made this additional manpower drain of the HomeGaurd in Lebanon somewhat more palatable, but once again, Shia Arab males were being sent into battle not against the dreaded IDF or even the Infidels of the West, but against fellow Muslim Arabs... on Arab land!!!! Think about it!!!

Well, we all know what became of the Western response.

That gets us back up to date on the Hezbollah issue in Syria and it may give us some understanding of what we see taking place.

Could the observed, and trust me, the IDF knows, withdraw of forces from Syria be nothing more than the return of the surge sent for the Western attack?

Most likely!

Is Hezbollah leaving Syria?

I would bet not.

Remember, Assad and the Persian's primary goal has not been reached; the capture of Aleppo!

And that brings us to the next real issue; what is the real status of Assad's campaign to take Sunni strongholds?

Again, if we go back to my comments from months ago, we will see the primary objective of Iran's push in Syria.... the taking of Aleppo!

So, here is the update!

Can Assad and his Masters take Aleppo?

No!

Is that why Hezbollah is leaving?

No!

Is that why Hezbollah is going to stay?

Yes!

Here is the next phase of the "update".

Has Iran changed it's mined?

Is the survival of Assad the real end-state still?

Have the Persians and the Tsar taken a new course on the issue of Syria?

Again, go back to what I said at the very beginning of the conflict in Syria.

The survival of Assad and his government is based upon one simple factor; the support of the Persians and the Tsar.

Time and time again, I have commented on the lifespan of Assad and the reality he will never know if a "deal" is done to move Syria forward without him.

I was and still may be convinced his use of chemical weapons back in August was based upon his paranoia of his Masters plotting his demise.

In the spirit of keeping this discussion with " Snapshot" framework, let's ask a few simple questions.

Has the "objective" of the Persians and the Tsar changed?

Has it become clear to both of them the battle cannot be won in Syria?

Do they realize they cannot take Aleppo or even protect the land they have retaken; what little that is?

If Assad is no longer seen as the future of Persian and Tsarist plans for Syria, then what is the "plan"?

Did the Tsar take great pleasure in making the West / US / look foolish over the chemical weapons event and more importantly, is he done?

Simply put, has the other side redefined what they are trying to achieve?

Could the answer be found in the highly talked about Iranian Initiative?

Just how close is the Russian / Persian team?

Who really gets to set what the "goals" are?

We know the Tsar needs Sunni fighters tied up somewhere else until after the 2014 Winter Olympics and Syria is the location he has selected.

We know the Iranians are in a full court press to show the "kinder.. more gentler... Persian Empire and we know the world is foaming at the mouth to believe what they seem to be seeing.

As the Western world plays the "good cop... bad cop" game with the Persians, the reality for Israel will not be distracted.

"We will go alone if needed"... That was the message by the Israelis at the UN, but I wonder who was listening!

Ok, it's October 2013 and the fact of the matter is, a Sectarian war is still in full swing with the key players... the GCC and the Persians showing no signs of pulling back.

Hezbollah's movement is in it's own self-interest and I have to wonder how that event is playing out in the Persian Empire.

Does the Middle East remain dangerous?

Yes.

Does the glimmer of "hope" coming from the Persians indicate "light at the end of the tunnel"?

No.

What it does mean is the region grows more and more confusing by the day and those with the ability to figure it all out simply don't exist.

The region is a proxy tool to the Tsar..

The region is the battlefield of the Arab, Persian, Ottoman Empire hopefuls.

To the Israelis, it's just another day of struggle for survival.

To the rest of the world.... well...just keep pumping and it will all just go away!!!

NETANYAHU'S "BLUNT SWORD".

A few days ago, and it's still difficult to be consistent right now, at least for a few more days, the topic was the ramifications of the Syrian chemical events.

For all the scholastic level discussions and all the book writers restless to pen their next chapter, the issue became very simplistic; and it's hard to get paid when you talk with the media simplistically:)

Had the West, more to the point, the US, lost it's ability to "Control / influence" events in the Middle East?

Had the Tsar become the new power broker; a power broker the GCC would now turn to?

Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, Tunisian Virus...yes.. I will never give up calling it such.... the GCC leaders have had and continue to have one basic fear; the abandonment of Western support!

Are they the only ones with that fear?

No!

We have talked before about the strange bedfellows that can take place, especially in the Middle East.

Go back and "search" this blog and you will find my discussions on the pending relationships between Israel and the GCC / Saudi.

"The Enemy of my Enemy"!!!  Never... Ever forget this saying when you are looking at the Middle East!!!!

But, the Israelis also remember yet another age old saying in the region, "you can feed a Scorpion, but it will still sting you"!

So, what is taking place as a result of the Syrian chemical debacle?

Skipping the subject of the Tsar and his grand designs for the region, lets look at the topic near and dear to Israel.... the Persians!

" A sword which as gone blunt"?

Really?

Does anyone think Rouhani is such a fool as to really believe such an insane statement?

Let's assume he understood the insanity; so why did he say it?

Who was the message to?

His people?

True, the tensions between the Hawks and the so called Moderates is worthy of watching inside Iran.

Was the message for the people of Israel?

I doubt it, but if it was he was only showing his arrogance at his own peril!

Was his statement meant for Western / US / indulgence?

Is this a move to negotiate with the West from position of strength?

Does Rouhani and his Puppet Master truly think their talks with the US are leading to Israel being unable to strike on it's own?

What a catastrophic  miscalculation that would be!

So, what is going on with the Persians?

What lesson / perception did they gain from watching the Syrian chemical episode unfold?

Now, I know the people in the US were very occupied with the drama the media conjured up over the government shutdown and it's obvious the coverage of what Netanyahu presented to the UN had little to no coverage in the West.

Here is what is really interesting.

The words of Israel did not go unnoticed in the Gulf States!

Here is the bottom line:

Did the events of the Syrian chemical event set in motion the path to war between Israel and Iran?

How many times have we looked at the issues of, " the laws of unintended consequences" and how often has the topic of " Second and Third Order Effects" come up in the past two years?

If Rouhani truly believes the IDF is now a "blunt sword", then I would highly recommend he still don his armor and research the dangers of blunt trauma!

    

http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/Israels-sword-has-gone-blunt-says-Iranian-President-Rouhani-327686

THE RAMIFICATIONS OF INACTION????

Well, it's been rather obvious I've been away from my opinion postings for over two weeks now, but I'm happy to say I'm back and I've picked a great topic to come back to!

I'm not going to waste your time or my time talking about the events leading up to the drive for Western intervention in Syria.

My last post addressed my most simplistic point, and if you notice, I posted it before the Tsar made his move on the whole issue.

The short answer is this... The Tsar scores a victory, but what will be his reward?

Ok, back to what I'm convinced is now a far more important topic.

The news today, outside the US, on the topic of Syria was more than fascinating and in fact, what was announced today was not only a long time in the making, but it was also completely predictable by those who know the region.

If you look at some of my older postings on events in Syria you can find time and time again where I spoke to the issue of so called, Leadership in exile members and the real fighting force in Syria... the Rebels.

As a reminder, the age old saying has not changed; "One man's freedom fighter is another man's revolutionary/ Terrorist.

Let's cut to the chase.

Many of us have known for over a year now the fighters in Syria were never going to march to the drum of the social elitist living in high-rise condominiums overlooking the streets of capital of Turkey!

Again, as a important reminder, just because you eat dinner and drink fine wine with Western Political power brokers, that doesn't equate into victory on the true battlefields of Syria.

For months, the storyline was all about how the radial fighting groups, most of them fundamentalist, were in a real power struggle with each other and how the Assad regime was going to be able to take advantage of this infighting.

Most of those who came up with this theory were more worried about being paid to say it or write it then they were figuring out if it was actually true!

It was and remains a "picture" the so called leaders, the ones living in the condos taking a bath every night, continues to attempt to sell to the rest of the world.

Are the fighting groups in Syria going to hold hands now and fight as one synchronized organization?

Of course not, but what they are going to do is make it known the appeasement approach taken by the false leaders of the Syrian revolution,  the fine wine club, will not have a say so in what takes place on the ground, door to door in Syria.

If you accept this announcement today, you need to ask yourself, what happened?

What changed?

What event made the "middle of the road" FSA groups jump ship?

Well, do you think they may have lost hope when the great Western assault on Assad and Hezbollah didn't take place?

Do you  think that could have been the proverbial, "straw that broke the Camel's back"?  

What pushed them off the center of the fence, if they were ever really there?

Is this announcement today a byproduct of the failed Western intervention?

Most likely yes!

Now, ask yourself one last question.

Who does this benefit?

Who fills the vacuum?

Who can bee seen as the voice of "reason"... a voice that takes the opponents into the back room and puts a bullet in the back of their heads?

Ah yes.... the TSAR!!!!

As soon as this breakaway announcement was given, perhaps even before, the GCC was hard at work figuring out what needs to be done.

If you live in Iraq or the Hezbollah side of Lebanon....keep your head down...

The GCC knows how to make pull the right strings.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/9/25/syrian-rebel-groupsslamwesternbackedopposition.html

SYRIA'S WMD "PLAN".. WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO THE CIVIL WAR?

I'm not going to get into the politics of the incredibly confusing events that have taken place over  the past twenty-four hours, but instead, I will look at what this all might mean to the war in Syria.

If anyone forgot, the country of Syria is still knee deep in a civil war!

Over the past two or three weeks, it seams the daily headlines from the fighting have taken a backseat to the events of the 21st of August.

Needless to say, the forces in support of Assad have been hard at work fortifying their assets in anticipation of the once pending Western strike; a "Western" strike that was to be supported by the GCC if you believe what you read; oh ya... what is the definition of " supported"?

But, with the Assad Team digging in as deep as they can and dispersing as much as possible, it's probably a safe bet the Battle Plans for Aleppo were put on hold, if not disassembled. 

Well, if the pending doom of a Western strike is now less than probable, what does that mean to the Rebels/ Sunni fighters?

Can the Sunni fighters take advantage of the Assad Team while they are still deciding to uncover and regroup everything they hid?

Will the Assad Team start to reassemble the Aleppo Assault Package?

If so, will the Rebels wait?

Ok, here is my point.

When the lack of unified, coordinated "plan" takes hold, the end result is complete confusion on all parts.

What should the Sunni groups do right now?

What does Assad's Team dare to reassemble?

What about the thousands of Hezbollah fighters that mobilized over the past two weeks?

Just how confused are both sides?

Probably just as confused as those who are convinced they need to do something about Syria!!!!!

The Coalition of the Uncoordinated is not linked with the Coalition of the Confused or the Coalition of the Confused!

The only one that seems to have a "plan" is..... yep.... you guessed it.... the Tsar!

So what happens if the long drawn out game of "where are the WMDs" repeats itself?

Does anyone remember how long this game took in Iraq???? About 10 years!

Where did the WMDs move to?

Who has them and how long does it take to even form a team to look for them?

Oh ya, a group of teams that has to look for all the dispersed sights in the middle of a Civil War... We didn't even have to do that in Iraq.

"Here... Here is my 100 tons of weapons.......What... I don't have 1000 tons.. You just want to bomb me"!!!

It seems like this story has been played out before!!!!!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nowsyrialatestnews/russia-to-send-us-syria-plan-on-tuesday-kerry-says

IRAN'S PERCEPTIONS... THAT'S THE REAL DANGER!

Once again the question floats to the surface and this time around more and more people are paying attention?

Do the Persians truly believe this is only about Assad's use of chemical weapons?

Again this morning, many of the Western political members are making reference to how this pending strike on Syria, will "send a message" to Iran.

What is that message?

How do the Persians "perceive" that message?

If the West does a good job of convincing the Iranians a "message" is coming soon, then what return "message" is drafted from Iran?

As the opponents of a Iranian nuclear weapons program have sat and pondered for years how to deal with such a complex question, several options have been placed on the table.

If you remember a few years ago when the West was attempting to pull Asssad into the "Western Camp" and away from the Persians.....well... the process didn't go so well!

I'm afraid the West misunderstood whose camp Syria was really in or they forgot the Tsar gets a vote!

So, lets say the Persians sit back in their master training room and come to the conclusion the West cannot afford a regional war to neutralize Iran's program.

Perhaps what the Persians came to the conclusion , based upon   the failed love affair with Assad, the real Western plan was to pull apart the proxy fighters and geographic support bases such as Lebanon and Syria, thus leaving Iran incapable of projecting military actions to a level they required?

Maybe, just maybe the Persians have come to the conclusion the Western Master Plan is the Death of a Thousand Cuts?

Well, after all the talk by Western political members in the past two weeks, I'm not sure how Iran could not come to this conclusion.

So, is this whole push to attack Syria really about the neutralization of Iran?

I'm not sold on that theory, not just yet.... but I must admit, it's almost impossible to believe the Persians don't see it that way.

Pushing Iran into a corner and saying to them, "watch this".... is that what some political leaders truly believe is a sound concept?

Get the Western Generals away from their Bosses and close the door!!!

Don't ask them if this is what their leadership is up to, for they will not break their oaths.

Instead, ask them if shoving the Persians into a corner, a corner the Tsar owns, and forcing them to watch their last proxy state be taken apart and left to the radical Sunni Rebels.....well... I think you know where I am going.

If there is anything about this so called Syrian Crisis that confuses me, worries me, it's the concept of sending a message to a powerful military controlled by radical leadership and at the same time turning to your own population and saying, "don't worry"..... it's very limited"!!!!!

Where are we going?

We are about to find out!

http://www.thenation.com/blog/176040/obamas-syria-war-really-about-iran-and-israel#

IS A POLITICAL PLAN FOR SYRIA IN THE WORKS.. ASSAD SOLD OUT BY HIS MASTERS?

I am probably tealeaf reading here, but I've seen a interesting trend in the past few days that is now worthy of addressing.

If you read the linked articles, you just might find a glimpse of what I'm about to say.

Once again, let's play the "what if game".

What if General Habib's defection to Turkey was no accident?

What if the meeting between his friend, Prince Bandar approached the Russians was about an alternative Syrian government plan based upon someone the Russians and the West could live with?

What if Assad caught wind of this potential deal between the Tsar and the GCC / Arabs and panicked..... panicked so much that he decided to use weapons he knew would change the dynamics of the entire region?

The final linked attached is my post just a few days after the 21st of August event; a post where I asked the question that everyone is still struggling to answer.... Why... Why did the weapons get used now?

Would my "what if theory" explain an alleged signal intelligence capture that reportedly shows Hezbollah reporting to Iran what Assad had done?

Would it explain the Tsar stating he might support a UN vote on the Syrian issue?

My gut tells me there is something to this whole chain of events and I cannot be the only one who is picking up on it.

Now, let's us play the "Assumption game"!

If we assume there is some move afoot to undermine Assad, something I said two years ago would eventually happen with the Tsar and the Persians, will it work?

Could it lead to the type of "Diplomatic Resolve" that everyone keeps calling for?

Have the key players found a person both sides can live with?

If so, then why the rush to attack Syria?

Good question and it's the pivot point as to why I'm somewhat reluctant to continue with the Tealeaf reading.

Ah, but there could be one factor not incorporated into the story.

Back to the "What if" game!

What if.. the concept of this "deal" doesn't have the Western players as voting members?

What if this "deal" is a "deal" between the two oil giants in the world... the CGG and the Tsar?

I just love the "what if" game... Some of us have played it for years... decades!!!!

Ok, now back to the " Assumption" game.

Let's assume I'm correct and this is exactly what is taking place.

Here is the Billion dollar question!!!

Will it work?

The answer is.... No!

If such a backroom deal, like most political dealings, is underway, there is one wildcard that cannot be overlooked.

How many factions are fighting in Syria as of today?

Can you count them?

If the Russians and the Persians and the GCC come to grips with a "nutral" party to temporarily lead Syria, how in the world do you get all the Syrian factions and Warlords, that is exactly what some of them have become, to agree?

What brings the Kurds to the table?

How do you turn off the revenge pipeline?

If you answered with GCC funds, you are smarter than the average Bear when it comes to how the whole region works.

Who pays the bills for the Radical Islamic groups?

Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, the event that worries the Monarchies of the GCC the most, who has the closest ties to these proxy fighters?

Yep.. The GCC!!!

But, the GCC members are forgetting one of their oldest truisms.. just because you feed a Scorpion, that doesn't mean it will not sting you!!!

Tealeaf reading.... What ifs an the Assumption Game... all so easy to do from so far away!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=116925

    

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=116925

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=116940

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10285341/Vladimir-Putin-says-Russia-could-back-Syria-intervention-if-UN-approves.html

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/search?updated-min=2013-08-01T00:00:00-07:00&updated-max=2013-09-01T00:00:00-07:00&max-results=13