BULGARIA AND HEZBOLLAH... SO WHAT IS THE CONNECTION?

So what does it mean that Bulgaria is blamed members of Hezbollah for the bus bombing in Burgas?

It's not the first time Hezbollah, in their opinion, is taken the blame for tears attack somewhere else in the world.

If you have followed the story, the new already realize the significance of Bulgaria's announcement and the impact it could have her Hezbollah financial support operations throughout Europe.

If you follow the story as of today, you will also notice that the EU, as expected, is still "reluctant" actually point the finger and Hezbollah!

If you are truly curious about this entire event, and you have to ask yourself the question; why is the EU so reluctant to properly identify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization?

Now, some will say it's a simple fear factor.

A byproduct of liberal, passive governments is a constant the version the confrontation.

Is not too difficult to visualize a conversation between EU leaders talking of the repercussions by Hezbollah in Europe if the EU or to identify Hezbollah honestly.

Admittedly, I'm one of the first to admit that not all government leaders in the EU are so weak kneed is to take the stance.

Those in Europe who comprehend the dangers of such a radical organization's has blocked know full well that some point in time they must properly identify these terrorist what they are.

Unfortunately, in the world of international politics, the reoccurring factor of, "what's in it for me", comes into play.

Everyone in the world of international politics is always looking out for their self-interest; rightfully so!

The bottom line is this, whatever the reasons may be the EU is now under more pressure than ever before to choose sides on the issue at hand. Hezbollah............

I will give Hezbollah credit for one thing.

I saw no indications today of threats towards the EU.

No emotionally charged statements about the price that unit may pay or betraying Hezbollah or their so-called cause.

At least for today, they stayed on theme; the evil Israelis!

Where the Israelis encouraged by the announcement from the Bulgarian government?

Probably so, but the real issue is the final verdict from the EU.

With official condemnation from the EU, Hezbollah funding streams from Europe could become nearly nonexistent, at least from a legal standpoint.

"Do the right thing"!!!!

That is the message and Israel sends to the EU.

You see, Europe has a history, from the Jewish perspective, of failing to take action against organizations that are based upon hate and bigotry.

Let's watch to see what the EU says and then remember............. actions speak louder than words!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=302357

TURKEY AND SAUDI.... CRACKS IN THE SOCIAL ARMOR?

Two very interesting articles that both have a potential fascinating common theme.

The story of Saudi youth questioning traditional approaches to Islam touches on a topic that has the royal family sleepless since the beginning of the Arab spring.

The article on the Shiites of Turkey in the injustices they perceive are taking place; well..... It too has Turkish leadership worried.

So what is the common link between these two stories?

Both of these critical governments in the region are showing signs of social stress that they are both long feared.

In the case of the Saudis, is a youth movement surrounded and encased with education and social media is simply questioning the current form of government, is all youthful segments of society, a successful society, are known to do.

It is this "questioning of authority" that the Saudi Royal family truly fears organizations such as the Muslim brotherhood will exploit.

Since the beginning of the Arab spring, the concerns of the Western world have truly been for staining governments of the GCC nations, with Saudi Arabia being the center of that discussion.

As is been the case throughout the Arab spring, suppression will not be the answer and yet suppression will be the reaction of the Saudi government.

As for the Shiites of Turkey, their question of "injustices" is nothing new.

Although their numbers make them truly a minority in their country, their ability to catch the attention of a Sunni dominated government is undeniable.

When we look at the questions the Shia of Turkey are asking, it is difficult to formulate an answer that they would probably understand or be willing to accept.

I can't help but notice, it is far easier, currently, to read of the Turkish governments concerns and actions towards the Kurdish issue then to find discussions of Sunni Shia tensions.

I'm not sure there is anywhere in the entire region where insecurity, social injustices and economic imbalances does not occupy majority of the day-to-day conversations.

But, seeing small fissures in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey are far different and much more ominous for everyone in the current events in Mali  Libya or Tunisia and even Syria.

Yet, is truly music to the ears of the Iranians\the Persians\when they hear stories of social, internal, tensions inside these two nations.

Having said that, it is far too easy and Iran to this list!

So, is the winter of 2013 moves towards the spring of 2013 the question becomes what is the next phase of the "Arab Spring" / Tunisian Virus.... Yes... I still refer to it as such :-)

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/saudi-youth-question-mohammed-al-ari-tom-cruise-of-wahhabism.html

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/02/ali-ozgunduz-shia-sectarian-fears-caferi-turkey.html

IRAN'S POWER STRUGGLE.. IS ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION?

Well, I'm not sure anyone's paying attention but it's very apparent the power struggle inside Iran's leadership continues to grow!

Who the next president will be after this June's elections is anyone's guess, but Ahmadinejad is doing his level best to make sure it is not one of his known adversaries.

As I've said before, the internal power struggles of the Iranian government is far more disruptive than most in the Western world realize.

I'm not sure anyone in the West even has a working understanding of what a "moderate" Iranian leader may stand for, but everyone seems to be hoping against hope one will  come to the forefront.

What is clear is the economic crisis is the weapon of choice for all sides involved.

Religion, Zionist and the crisis in Syria or a pending "Arab spring" are not the flavors of the day.

The price of bread loss of subsidies and the devaluation of currency are the cornerstones of this struggle for power.

The religious leaders of Iran seem content to allow the somewhat sectarian politicians squabble and better yet take the blame for the economic miseries of Iran; for you see, the real power in Iran will never leave the mullahs and the ayatollahs are whatever title they care to give themselves!

Although this struggle does not appear to gain much traction in the Western press, you can be assured in Jerusalem is a daily conversation.

The ability to exploit weaknesses of your enemy is a doctrinal concept that will not be overlooked by the Israelis or the nationstates of the GCC!

The actions of Ahmadinejad may appear to be amateurish, but if there's one thing he knows how to do, it's to play the part of the sensational leader.

The elections grow near and the drama will only increase.

The question becomes, with the issue of Syria and Israel overtakes the economic crisis in Iran before the elections are held?

A looming economic future is at best bleak spells disaster for the Iranian leadership and they know it.

To what ends with the Iranian government go to take its publics eye off of their economic misery?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/02/20132481311128156.html

LEBANON'S VERSION OF NERO AND ROME!!!

For those that follow the events of Lebanon, something that is not being done in the Western press, this ongoing debate about the new election laws is most likely on of the key issues to keeping the lid on Lebanon.

Harri's side, March 14th and a few others are pressing hard for an outcome that will only lead to Hezbollah desperation.

If you are not up to speed on the whole Lebanese election issue, let me make this simple for you.

The Sunn's / Harir and his group are hard against any change to the old law.

The "New Law" proposes a system of proportionality; something that would greatly strengthen the Hezbollah side of the government.

So, you see, something as mundane as "election law" is easily overlooked by a world fixated on well published violence.

The problem is, this " mundane" issue in Lebanon is just the kind of spark that sets the fuel of civil war aflame!

If this sounds pointless , then you are probably the kind of person that will be "shocked" when the next country in the region to fall into a crisis is Lebanon.

The election law struggle is nothing more than a microcosm of what is really going on in Lebanon; a civil war that never really came to any true conclusion.

Follow this story and you will be able to predict the future of Lebanon, Hezbollah and most likely the next Israeli / Hezbollah conflict.

The key indicators are there; one simply has to know what to look for!!

Jumblatt is the modern Nero of Lebanon!!!!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Feb-03/204835-jumblatt-says-hariris-electoral-proposal-unsuitabl.ashx#axzz2JsSG1jtE

SNAPSHOT ON THREE CRITICAL "HOTSPOTS".

Okay, I've not done one of these in quite a while but I thought tonight was an appropriate time to do a "snapshot" of events that are critical for this point in time for the Middle East.

EGYPT:

So what is this time might make this round of protests different?

The short answer is educated youth of Egypt, this time around, has a "bully" on their side!

The "bloc" \soccer hooligans\have provided a level of violence that the unorganized and mostly passive Egyptian college youth did not possess 2011.

Yes, the people of Egypt have "protest fatigue" but more importantly they are even more fatigue with the thought of yet another authoritarian government ruling over it virtually ruined economy!

Many stories have been written in the past few days on how this time, Egypt to truly could be on the edge of chaos.

Fatigue, hopelessness and violence make are simply making a disastrous cocktail.

IRAQ:

Today's Sunni protest made it abundantly clear to the Iraqi government just how close they truly are to social chaos.

The fact that the current leader of Iraq is a complete incompetent fool leaves Iraq little hope of maintaining order.

For nearly 10 years theory has been that someday Iraq eventually divide along sectarian lines in an undeclared Kurdish state.

It now appears that this theory is quickly becoming reality that is organizing your for Iran and anyone else in the region.

The Turkish oil deals with the Kurds will not take Iran's interest into account.

Simply put, as I stated at the end of 2012, Iraq is soon to be another proxy battlefield in a growing Sunni Shia sectarian conflict!

LEBANON:

There is only one way to analyze the situation for Lebanon; when will the conflict spread to Lebanon?

Hezbollah has absolutely no chance of controlling the fate of Lebanon and in fact, its own fate is now in question.

Desperate organizations like desperate nations have historically taken drastic actions.

Nothing and I mean absolutely nothing is going Hezbollah's way.

Lebanon is being held together by the reality the slim majority of its people still do not wish to see open conflict in their country.

With each passing day the ability to hold back the tide of violence is being torn down by the relentless pressures of sharing a border with the crisis called Syria.

Okay, it's fairly simple to see just how many fires close to igniting in the region.

The nations are now coming to the realization that preventing these fires is all but hopeless.

Hopefully the concentration of effort is becoming focused on the issue of limiting the damage of these fires like all other fires in nature, preventing them from growing into one large forest fire.

If you are in search of good news, then there's no need to look anywhere near the Middle East.

FOLLOW UP ON RAID INTO SYRIA.

Well, the war of words finally came out today, and it's important to take a look at what those "words" may tell us.

First and foremost, the Iranian response has a little bit of mystery to it, as they often do!!!

The old dry words about Western Zionist actions carried little weight, but the comment about the city of Tel Aviv surly caught the ear of Israel's leadership.

I did find some humor in the Russian comment.

As upset as the Russian could pretend they were, I am sure they are willing to sell replacement units to the Syrian / Iranian governments.

Never miss the opportunity to make a few bucks off a crisis... they might even given them a discount!

As for the Syrian government, they made the most out of the incident.

One of the issues that surly was contemplated prior to the decision to hit the target was the predictable response from Syria / Assad.

One of the consequences of this event was going to be the accusation that the "Rebels" in Syria were being supported by the Israelis and the West!

Of all the statements that could be made, this would be the one that would have the most political / Information Operations / Propaganda value.

Simply put, the attack gave Assad the opportunity to say, " I told you so"!!!

Now, given what the Israeli Air force would be facing in the next conflict with Hezbollah, and there will be one, letting Assad say, " I told you so" is a price easily worth paying.

As for the Syrian comment about a " surprise retaliation", well.....  that will depend on how desperate Assad becomes and if the Iranians allow such an event to take place.

On the issue of comments made about the event, did anyone notice the almost total silence from the GCC countries?

Yep... Go figure!!!

So, did this event cost Israel a few points in the court of world opinion?

Probably, but then again, Israel has been losing that public opinion campaign for years now, so nothing new there.

By the end of the day, I was somewhat disappointed, why I don't know given the shallow level of Western media coverage, over the lack of the "professionals" asking, "what next"?

Will Assad continue to try to leverage the event to shift the story of Zionist, Rebel collaboration?

Maybe, but most who know the region understand this tactic has little to no traction with Assad's real enemies.

Does anyone thing for a minute the Sunni Fundamentalist groups are actually working in concert with the IDF???

Yep,  that story is just not going to get Assad very far, and in reality it has probably already played itself out.

Will Assad try to deflect the conflict by retaliating on Israel?

As I stated last night,  I seriously doubt it.

Iran simply is not prepared to go there just now.

If we see signs of Iran preparing itself for conflict, and trust me we would, then I would become worried.

Iran can't bless off on Assad taking action on Israel in the hopes of it maintaining the actions of a proxy war without fallout for Iran.

Short answer... Iran can't allow Assad to start something Iran doesn't want.

So, how about Hezbollah?

A very different option for both Assad and Iran, with the exception Assad gets no vote on tasking Hezbollah... that authority remains with Tehran.

Could Hezbollah conduct operations that would force the IDF to respond?

Absolutely, but again, the danger would become, who does the IDF respond to?

As I've said before, If Israel is forced to deal with Hezbollah inside of Lebanon, thereby painting a picture of the IDF taking actions inside of Lebanon, then Israel will most likely take all the actions they have been preparing for at one time... namely ... Iran!!

A few rockets from Lebanon into Israel may not be out of the question, given Israel will be very reluctant to attack a second Arab country in such short order.

Again, doing the deliberate planning process at the strategic level of anticipating retaliatory events is something Israel is very good at.

The " plan" to deal with a limited Hezbollah action, out of Lebanon, is ready for execution.... you can bank on it.

This event may lead to other actions and I am worried many have not thought that concept through, but I can assure you the Israelis have!

That doesn't equate into everything going according to "plan", but mistakes are most likely going to be made on the side of Assad, not on the side of Israel.

Oh ya.,... How about all those Anti Air units Syria is said to have?

How did that work for them?

They were  surprised by two jets...... I don't think they wish to see what could be sent towards them..... but then again Assad may just wish for such at thing and when you get right down to it....... that is what really worries me!

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Politics/2013/Jan-31/204406-hezbollah-slams-israeli-attack-on-syria.ashx#axzz2JbHdURcI

ISRAELI STRIKES..... NOW WHAT  DOES IT MEAN?

By now, just about anyone who follows the Middle East has read or heard of the IAF strike in Syria.

Let's get right down to it and see what it means.

 Here are a few simple, quick questions that need to be answered.

Why did Israel strike?

Why did they hit what they did?

It's reported they struck SAM 17 systems still in cargo mode.

If this really was the target, why now?

The "rumor" was they were being moved to Lebanon for Hezbollah.

Now, Israel's most recent warning was based on WMD status and the issue of them being given or falling into the wrong hands, but in the past, Israel has also warned of "other" systems being handed over to Hezbollah or other groups.

Ok, so if SAM 17 units were the target and they were being moved, again the question becomes, "why".. not why did Israel hit them, but why did Assad decide to give the impression he was about to give them to  someone else.... Hezbollah?

We have to accept the fact Assad knows full well Israel would never allow this transaction to take place.

After we accept that fact, then we need to look at why did he decide to execute the plan?

Was he forcing Israel's hand?

Does he believe such an act would change the current environment in Syria?

Would he do such a thing without consulting the Iranians or the Russians?

You see, it's one thing to understand the Israelis took action today, it's another, one that is more important, to figure out why Syria took this step!!!!!

If Assad was cleared to take such a provocative move, that would mean Iran has a "plan" for what this event may lead to?

Does that mean Iran is prepared for war with Israel?

I don't think so.

Does it mean Iran is once again trying to turn the issue away from their nuclear program?

Perhaps!!!

Let me take us to the next question?

Now what?

What does Iran do?

What does Israel anticipate, and I can guarantee you they have though this through, Iran will do?

I've not heard an official response from Iran yet, at least not one that the blogs or open press has picked up on.

That is an interesting indication to me..

It could very well be, Iran didn't really believe the IAF would strike this movement.

Was Iran truly caught off guard?

If so, will they react?

My bet is they will react with words only!!!

Yes, I know they were beating their chest this week declaring an attack on Syria would be seen as an attack on Iran and it could be they even anticipated this event.

But, it appears Israel has now officially said,  " so what"!!!

Ok, back to what the IAF hit and why?

Let's get passed the fact it was a weapon system the Israelis would not allow Hezbollah to have.

Why would Hezbollah want to have a SAM 17 unit?

Are they capable of implementing such a sophisticated system?

I will tell you it is one thing to send a group of people to a "school", but it is a whole different issue to think that a group of "students" right out of a abbreviated course can engage a very complicated, advanced enemy such as the IAF.

Taking your picture or making a You Tube clip showing off your new toys in Lebanon is not what is going to stop the IAF!!!

No one knows this better than Israel.

So, why did they chose now, on Syrian land, to eliminate this threat?

Was it a message?

Was the real event here a warning, more than just words, more than just to Assad, that Israel will enter Syria if needed?

My bet is this is exactly what took place today!!

Ok,

What next?

Simple....

The next move is up to Iran, not Assad...

If Assad decides to " retaliate", and I bet he does not, then he will not do so without Iranian support and that is exactly how Israel will see it.

The bottom line is... Israel has just stated, "we are willing and able to enter this conflict"!!

Now.... How about Iran????

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=301585