SO RUSSIA IS ANXIOUS? SO WHAT STAGE IS IRAN IN?

It appears the conflict inside the Palestinian refugee camps has been far more disturbing to the Russians than many anticipated.

With the Russians must now decide is how destabilizing to the remains of the Syrian government there evacuation, the Russians that is, would be?

Whether the Russians are communicating with the Iranians on the possible evacuation of Russians from inside Syria is the next important question.

I would be willing to bet that conversation is taking place even as I write this.

The advances in just the past few days of the Syrian rebels, or freedom fighters whatever you may choose to say, has been far more dramatic than the Russians or the Iranians are even the West would like to admit.

It also appears the drawing of sides of the Palestinians in Syria is nearly complete with an overwhelming majority siding with the rebels.

Towns such as Halfaya falling to the rebels with dramatic video coverage is more than disturbing to those few supporters of Assad that are left.

The perception that the window of opportunity to leave Syria may be closing has become a simple fact that Assad can no longer deny!

Now back to the topic of the Russians!

Free, reluctantly, to evacuation of Russian personnel from Syria but that does not mean he is not going to extract  a pound of flesh for doing so for doing so.

Between the issue of the patriot missiles going to Turkey and the Palestinians abandoning Assad, both the Russians and the Iranians simply see nothing going their way!

Having said all of this, the news is far from good for the rest of the world.

The Islamic fundamentalist fighters advancing on nearly all fronts inside of Syria will be in no mood or position to come to the negotiation table.

For several months now I have warned about the speed at which the Syrian government could collapse.

It appears my and the fears of all those watching could be coming true!

Assad simply does not have a higher level of panic that he could possibly reach.

Syria has now reached the point that I believe is up to the Iranians military leaders to determine what happens next.

The decision to fight, serpent, associate or simply go home are now the only options left for the Iranians.

Creating a crisis in Lebanon or Jordan are Bahrain will no longer salvage the Syrian government.

These options listed above are now only viable for the sake of revenge or escalation.

No one, and I mean no one,  believes Assad or his supporters will survive.

For nearly 2 years now the objective has been the defeat of the Syrian government.

With that objective now a hand the more important question becomes, what next?

The concept of, "what if", has been discussed for a long time, but now I believe the time is at hand.

If what is left of the Syrian military leadership decides to negotiate with the newly recognized government of Syria, then Assad and those close to him will need to flee quickly!

In conclusion:

The conflict in Syria between the Syrian government and the, "freedom fighters", is nearly over.

The chaos the world is feared is now the issue, hence the Russians decision to depart Syria and quickly.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Dec-19/199086-russia-shows-anxiety-on-syria-by-readying-evacuation-plan.ashx#axzz2FSOYNHH3

HAS IRAN ALLOWED ASAAD TO MAKE ANOTHER CRITICAL ERROR?

Since the beginning of the conflict in Syria, the loyalty of the Palestinian refugee camps has been a concern to all.

The Iranians have known from the beginning that the Palestinian refugee camps would hold the fate of the Syrian government!  

The Iranians have also realized that the rebels would always attempt to fight from inside the Palestinian camps.

The split between the Palestinian's has become as evident as at any time in the past.

It could very well be that Assad or his generals have taken action against these Palestinian refugee camps without Tehran's approval.

One of the greatest fears the Lebanese government has had for months is the overwhelming influx of Palestinian  refugees in a short period of time.

The sectarian tension not only inside Syria but in Lebanon as well is only going to get worse.

The perception that the Sunni Palestinians are no longer trusted by the Syrian government will be obvious to everyone in the region.

If this increased hostility towards the Palestinian refugee camps has been sanctioned by Tehran, then the desperation of the Iranians is nearly as high as the Syrian governments!

The rainy and six-point plan for a peace settlement in Syria has been placed on the table yet again.

The fact that the Iranians would even contemplate bringing this plan back to the table indicates just how desperate they may be becoming.

With each passing day, both the Iranians and the government of Syria, the now non-recognized government, grows more out of touch with the day-to-day reality of the region.

Asaad's followers have fewer and fewer options for not only supporting Asaad but for escaping from Syria.

On top of this issue, the most blatant case of sectarian violence is now underway in the Palestinian refugee camps.

The fact that the Syrian government, Asaad's government, continues to attempt to paint the picture of the Syrian rebels potentially using chemical weapons could be, as I stated earlier, a true indication of where Asaad is heading!

Make no doubt about it, the now open attacks on the Palestinian refugee camps is one of the last signs of Asaad's desperation!

If Iran is ever going to pull their support of the side, this might be the event that leads them to that action.

If Iran did support these attacks on the camps, and the next steps taken by a side will also be supported or even directed by Iran.

I believe we shall soon have our answer!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=100387

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Dec-17/198798-iran-details-plan-to-end-syria-crisis.ashx#axzz2FL8wzVcB

HAS RUSSIA TRULY  GIVEN  UP ON ASSAD?

It's not as if the Russians are just now coming to the realization of Assad's pending downfall.

Having said that, the question becomes why make this possible prediction now?

What changed from the Russian standpoint that they would make such a defeatist prediction?

One hint was given by Mr Bogdanov and it is one that went largely unnoticed given the gravity of Russian prediction.

His prediction of the fighting, "growing worse" could be telling the world several key clues.

If the Russians believe the fighting is going to get worse, then they must know that Assad has no intention of leaving Syria or coming to any agreements.

Even more ominous, the Russian prediction of increase violence might be based on their knowledge of what he intends on doing to stay in power.

The fact the Russians would openly admit they have drawn up plans to evacuate " their people" is yet another "clue"!

The final "clue", the one that worries me the most, is the comment about the possibility of the rebels "seizing chemical weapons".

If anyone knows the exact location of stockpiles, it would be the Russians and the Iranians.

The rest of the world can speculate based on intelligence, but these two countries undoubtedly know the Syrian program far better than anyone else; with the exception of the rebels and that is even worse news.

Ok, to put it simply; I believe the Russians know Assad himself believes his odds of staying in power are diminishing by the hour.

The Russians, and the Iranians, also know Assad has determined he will go out fighting.

Months ago, I make the statement both the Russians and the Iranians would eliminate Assad and his followers themselves if only they could be assured what replaced him was somewhat sympathetic to their relationship.

If we see the Russians actually evacuating their people from Syria, then we know the most violent part of  Assad's plan is about to take place.

Oh by the way, you will not see the Iranian's leaving Syria.

There will be no Iranian Citizen evacuation; for you see... ... the only Iranians in Syria are the combatants helping and soon fighting along side Assad's forces.

One thing you can bank on.

The Russians know more about the status and the intent of Assad's government than the rest of us do.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20710561

SCUDS???? IS ANYONE REALLY SURPRISED?

Let's keep this real simple tonight.

Rather than rehashing  the worn out question of, "would Assad dare to use .... fill in the blank here... pick your weapon you are worried about... let's ask; " Why wouldn't Assad use ........."fill it in.

Is anyone really surprised or even alarmed by the deployment of SCUDS or Napalm type weapons?

How much closer to, "what does he have to lose", does he need to be than fighting for his own capital and the only airport that his supporters can escape from?

Now, remember my consistent theme here.

Before he utilizes weapons such as his SCUDs or other large scale weapons, he has to check in with his Masters in Tehran and that's not hard to do given I would bet they are sitting right next to him every single day.

Take a look at this video clip from a CNN correspondent and notice the part where the defected soldier comments the defenders inside the Syrian WMD compound are, not Syrians!!!

In the world of Police work... that is commonly known as a clue!!!   

What about the people of Syria?

What do they think he is going to do?

Just listen to the Doctor in the interview and you can become a Police Detective!!

 I will say it again and again, unfortunately  until it happens.

Assad utilization of WMDs will come with the permission and even cover of Iran.

I hope someone is thinking through that scenario..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20705519

http://www.cnn.com/video/?hpt=wo_t2#/video/world/2012/12/12/ad-syria-chemical-weapons.cnn

US RECOGNITION... WHAT WILL IT MEAN?

Ok, right off the bat, the most pressing question, one the US has contemplated I'm sure, is what will Assad's rebuttal be to the US announcement?

The past two weeks has seen a dramatic escalation in bad news for Assad and this announcement will just be stacked on top of all the other events.

Placing al-Nusra on the Terrorist List, is a no brainier and had to be accomplished before the US could even consider recognition.

The bad news, news that is actually much worse than bad, is al-Nusra Front is only one offshoot of Islamic Radicals operating in Syria.

Ask anyone working the issue of Syria and they will tell you the most combat effective organizations facing Assad are the Islamist groups, especially al-Nusra Front.

If the world is counting on the newly recognized "government" of Syria to be able to deal with these groups in a post Assad world, then they better have a very high level of support commitment ready and you better have the right players ready to help.

The world will also need to find a way to keep Iran from supporting anyone and everyone that can prevent the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, for that is exactly who will end up running the newly recognized Syrian government, from coming to power.

A "Western" victory on the fall of Assad based upon this newly formed, recognized group will meet tremendous resistance from Iran.

What "deals" have been made with Moscow and the Tsar to attempt to get the Russians on board will come to light sometime soon for you can bet the Tsar will not trade away Russian interest in Syria for a handshake.

So, is the US recognition of Ahmed Mouaz al-Khatib's group a good thing?

It depends and what your expectations are for Syria.

The announcement today is just one in a series of moves with many yet to come.

Oh ya.... Is Assad more desperate now?

Absolutely!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/20121212002312142.html

MORSI' CRISIS HAS BECOME A HAMAS CRISIS.

Two interesting articles that do not directly address my discussion here, but they do indicate the issues that lead up to my theory.

Here is the question!

Has Hamas tied it's future to a sinking ship in Morsi..... again?????

I say again because of the history of Hamas' linkage to Assad in Syria and we all see how that relationship turned out.

Hamas has turned their backs on Iran and Syria, as if there ever really was a relationship there between Sunni Hamas and Shia Iran / Syria.

The old "Big Brother" the Muslim Brotherhood became the new Big Brother after the rise of Morsi in Egypt.

Now, as if the new found worry of  the Morsi crisis is not enough for Hamas, they must now look at a promised "unification" with Fatah, something they still loath the idea of having to do, based upon the guidance from the MB and Morsi.

The safe bet is the so called "unification" will die a quick death if Morsi is tossed from power in Egypt; something that is totally up to the Egyptian Military.

Abbas has the upper hand after his UN move and a Hamas that suddenly decides to pull away, again, from Fatah and the PA will find itself on the short side of the Palestinian people.

Yes the so called "victory" of the conflict with Israel three weeks ago has provided them with some standing, but that was quickly countered by Abbas UN maneuver.

So, what is Hamas to do?

What is the future of the "unification" if Morsi falls from grace, a distinct possibility.

Assad may be gone before Morsi, and that will bring Iran's hand reaching back out to Hamas faster than it already is.

If there is anyone that would love to see Hamas fall out of the Sunni orbit of the MB, it's Iran.

I know... I know... everyone talks about Iran's " reaching out" to Egypt and Morsi, but that's the equivalent of a female Black widow inviting a male onto her web!!!

http://blogs.jpost.com/content/hamas-rejects-validity-un-resolution-palestinian-state-2

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/20121210235329634676.html

AN UPDATE ON DAMASCUS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

A few days ago, I explained the strategic and psychological significance of Damascus IAP.

The issue as to why that location is so critical to Assad and Iran needs no further explanation, but the tactical discussion will show why holding that location is nearly impossible for Assad in the long run.

Airports need several things in order to remain "open".

The free movement of resupply fuel is one of the first real critical events Assad's regime must insure.

Airplanes that are flying tactical resupply missions can land with sufficient fuel on board to turn and go, but day to day commercial airline industries do not and will not work under such "risk".

This fuel issue has a second real impact on the success of the airfield.

Storage!

Above ground storage tanks and fuel lines that are "exposed" make nearly irresistible targets to the rebels.

This is one of the points that I find interesting about the assault on Damascus IAP.

Why don't we see large pillars of smoke and flames billowing up from the Fuel Farm?

Have the rebels not thought of attacking this vital link to Assad's primary supply point?

Have the rebels formed a deliberate plan to avoid collateral damage to this facility?

Has "someone" asked them to approach the destruction of the Airport with "post Civil War requirements" in mind?

My gut tells me no.

I'm not convinced someone drafted, agreed to "master plan" for Damascus IAP, at least not from a post civil war / World view.

Now, If I were Assad's military leaders, I would have some of my best units protecting this airport for all the reasons I talked about a few days ago.

So, it could be it's much more difficult to reach, even with indirect fire, the fuel farm.

If I wanted to prevent the arrival of support flights to Assad, I would not concentrate my limited assault assets on the fuel farm.

What is the one thing every airport must have to remain open?

Yep... Runways!

If I wanted to stop Assad's resupply support, I would go after the runways first.

Again, the question becomes why has this not happened?

First off; the size of shell it takes to creator a several foot thick runway is hard to hide especially when your enemy still owns the sky above you.

Runways are vital, but they are also very difficult to completely    destroy.

The ability to fill a 20 ft whole and pour fresh asphalt is much easier than sneaking close enough to shell the location.

Can the rebels take a section of the airport long enough to destroy the runways beyond the point of a quick repair job?

Again, remember the level of troops Assad probably has assigned to this site!

 Ok, if you can't take out the runways, what is the next logical option?

Answer; make it very difficult to safely approach the airport by air.

It's what is commonly referred to as the " Manpad footprint".

Large transport aircraft or commercial airlines on final approach are sitting ducks for manpad shots.

The area the aircraft must fly over on it's final leg to the runway is the most dangerous and in this case most assuredly  the most guarded.

Manpad denial requires owning the rooftops of any building within shoulder fired range of the airport.

A task that is extremely difficult even with large number of troops available and even when the airport is somewhat remote like Damascus IAP.

Again, why have we not seen the "shot" taken by the rebels?

Take your choice.... .someone has said, "don't go there"....... It's simply too difficult ... or the proverbial...  " we just don't want to......yet"!!!!

Ok, what does all of this conversation lead to?

Simple; it 'leads to emphasizing just how critical Damascus IAP is to everyone involved.

Assad cannot survive without this facility..

On the other hand, the rebels can win this civil war without destroying or even overrunning Damascus IAP.

That is the difference.

You see the rebels know all too well just how hard Assad will fight to keep this facility in his grip.

They know that he limit actions in other areas for the sake of saving the airport.

A few units assigned to "harass" the airport after a well timed public notice about the airport being a "legitimate target" could be the game being played.

Would the rebels love to take Damascus IAP?

Yes.

Would they be willing to drive Assad into taking  actions the world would  not sit back and watch unfold?

Yes!

Damascus IAP means virtually everything to Assad.

To the rebels, it could easily be target that drives Assad to destruction at the hands of the rest of the world.

One last catch to this topic and it's a big one.

The second Assad's military commanders believe they are going to lose this airport, the level of panic inside what is left of his military will hit a new high!!!

Watch Damascus IAP and you will see the future of Assad.