UPDATE ON HEZBOLLAH'S FUTURE.

Interesting read attached, but I think the author misses an important issue.

The theory Hezbollah may come out of this Syrian event just as strong as they were before based upon their military status still being intact is questionable to me.

What the author overlooks is the issue of Hezbollah being depleted in a conflict and no longer having a 'lifeline" to be resupplied by.

The short answer is, if Iran falls into conflict the future of Hezbollah is bleak at best.

A campaign to deplete Hezbollah's stockpiles as quickly as possible, hopefully far sooner than their ability to deplete it by utilization, is the key to their defeat.

A campaign involving Iran will lead to Hezbollah taking an assault unlike any they have witnessed in the past.

When the dust settles the ability of Hezbollah to have someone resupply them will be gone, along with their influence in Lebanon.

Simply put, to support Iran in a regional war means the end of Hezbollah as we know it.

Hezbollah understands this and in the end, as I have said before, they must decide if destroying their movement for the Persians is truly the end state they can accept!

At night, when the lights are out and the Iranian leadership is contemplating their fate, do they truly believe the Shia Arabs of Hezbollah will cast away their dreams for the sake of the Persians? 

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Opinion/Columnist/2012/Oct-04/190070-syria-widens-hezbollahs-contradictions.ashx#axzz28GFEyiBN

FLASH POINT FOR BOTH IRAN AND SYRIA.

Two events took place today that made the news in most of the world with the exception of the US; where all eyes are on the Presidential Debate set for tonight.

One was the exchange of fire between Turkey and Syria.

The other, the far more serious event, was the demonstrations in Tehran.

As excitable as the exchange of fire was between Turkey and Syria, it remains to be seen if this will turn into a true escalating event.

Turkey may use this event to pressure the UN and it's NATO partners into rethinking the "safe zone" issue and some already believe that is what this event really is all about.

Some may think Assad is looking for a "distraction" thinking a limited exchange between Syria and Turkey may pressure "others" to demand a cessation of violence.

I don't buy ether of these stories.

My theory is the rounds fired into Turkey were fired by a unit that is so unprofessional they didn't even realize the repercussions of what they were doing.

Turkey, on the other hand, simply cannot afford the public outcry of not reacting to casualties on their own soil.

Does this mean this event cannot escalate into something far more dangerous?

No, but I don't believe Turkey or even Assad has War on their minds between the two nations.

We shall have to see what takes place in the next 24 hrs to know for sure.

Now, for the real news of the day!

Iran and the dreaded event; the event they have been terrified of for almost two years.

Protest and not just protest by angry College Kids....

For the past few days I have talked to the issue of the impact of the sanctions and how the consequences might very well be more than the West bargained for.

Forcing civil strife in Iran was a foolish goal to begin with and now the age old rule of " law of unintended consequences" could be taking effect.

Iranian leadership's  reaction to these protest of the state of the economy is critical to the overall future of the region.

For days now, they have warned the world they perceived the sanctions as "economic warfare" on the people of Iran.

There is only one way they will frame the protest that started today; it was a Western / US / designed event; one designed to bring about regime change in Iran.

What is Iran willing to do to stop this from growing larger?

How long before the people of Iran see what is taking place and decide now is the time to take to the streets?

Will Iran punish the people of Iran or will they lash out at the ones they believe has brought this upon them?

Yes, two significant events took place today, but the Iranian protest is the one that truly could lead to regional even global consequences.

Months ago, I said if these events came to Iran, Ahmadinejad would become the victim of choice, but that will only buy his Boss a small amount of time if any at all.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/06/ahmadinejad-and-mashaei-still-under.html

The flaw in the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei plan to toss Ahmadinejad to the wolves is the simple fact that the people of Iran will not be satisfied with just one head on the stick.

It will not work!

As of today, Iran's leadership  just became far more desperate than any point in the recent past and there is the real danger!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286516

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/world/middleeast/clashes-reported-in-tehran-as-riot-police-target-money-changers.html?_r=0

IS THERE A "MESSAGE" COMING OUT OF IRAN?

Look at these four articles and see if you can make the argument Iran may be, just may be, looking for a way out of the Syrian event?

It's hard for me to envision as well, but I am the guy who months ago said both Iran and Russia would find a way to abandon Assad if they could keep some version of what they need out of Syria.

Iran warning Syria on the use of WMDs?

            Although this could be a swipe at the Israelis as well.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Oct-02/189902-syrias-assad -tours-aleppo-orders-more-troops-into-battle-paper.ashx#axzz283pXBAY6

Assad uses the word " cleanse " towards the Rebels?

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=286365

            Does Iran fear Assad use of WMDs for this reason?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Article.aspx?id=189868#axzz283pXBAY6

Syria being openly upset with Hamas?

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/Article.aspx?id=189868#axzz283pXBAY6

            Does Hamas have marching orders from someone else and Syria knows it; someone other than the MB?

Iran warns of outside interference in Syria?

            A strange statement given the fact they have all but admitted their involvement in             Syria.

Now admittedly this could seem like tea leaf reading, but some of the actions coming from Assad and Tehran have been more than unusual over the past few days.

One thing is for sure, if I and those like me think some of these statements and press meetings are unordinary, then you can bet Assad is thinking the same thing... ten fold!!!

 Iran's currency crisis is topic number one right now in Tehran and that event is only going to get worse, but Assad using words like " cleanse" is bound to be making Tehran nervous; unless Tehran is ready for the " Great Distraction"..... 

OK... SO WHEN DO THEY GO?

 If you listened to  Netanyahu speech, some might argue, warning, he gave at the UNGA today, you may have only one question left to ask; " when do they go"?

I would have bet Netanyahu was going to spend a minimal amount of time on the issue of the Palestinian statehood, and I would have been right.  

As important as the PA issue is to some in this world, it is no longer the issue that threatens Israel's survival, at least not yet.

 THE RED LINE CONCEPT:

for weeks now, as everyone has been hearing of this "redline" concept, I've been fairly confident most simply didn't understand what it meant, to include some heads of governments.

What Netanyahu did today was make the concept crystal clear for all to see and hear, but this was not his only goal, it wasn't even his primary reason for giving the example.

What Netanyahu did today was warn the world, Israel has set a definite, finite timeline for war with Iran and he did this in such a way  that there can be no misunderstandings.

Netanyahu has been giving a warning to the world for over fifteen years, but this one was much different and I am convinced this was also his last warning.

So, who was his message really for?

The US leadership?

Partially.

The Arab States, who fear Iran as well?

Perhaps.

It is my opinion his real targeted audience was the people of Iran.

From this day forward, the Iranian people, who's life gets worse with each passing day of sanctions, must wonder how close is their government getting to the Redline?

The sudden "rumors" of a Spring / early Summer / event is a masterful form of psychological warfare.

The Iranian people have been somewhat worried of a pending war, but for the first time they have witnessed the Israeli leadership telling them exactly what event will bring them a event that will change their lives forever.

Will it work?

There seem to be two plausible options for the Iranian people.

1.  rise up against the government, the real hope of the rest of the world.

2.  Take this action by Netanyahu as a threat and rally around their leadership..

THE DANGER WITH NETANYAHU'S PLAN:

In a "healthy" governmental environment, leadership would most likely wait an given amount of time praying the people would rally to the side of leadership.

The problem is, the government of Iran is nowhere near healthy.

Paranoia and lack of trust rules the day, everyday.

No one paid closer attention to what was said today than the Iranian Leadership.

No one other than Iranian Leaders knows the window of time when this next phase of enrichment will take place.

Imagine if they are already there and they truly believe Israel knows this?

Panic is the next phase for Iranian leaders and that is the most dangerous option of all.

I have said this time and time again; why would Iran, knowing an attack is immanent, wait to lose what they have militarily?

Did Netanyahu just push Iran into making the fist move?

Did he intend to do so?

We shall see very soon!

SO WHY IS ERDOGAN  NOT AT THE UNGA?

It's a topic that most have not even taken the time to realize, but yes... it's true.. .Erdogan is not at the UNGA.

Now, not showing up at the UNGA has always been seen as a form of protest and so the speculation is Erdogan is making a point about something.

I would tend to agree with this theory, but the point in this attached article about the actions and events around the PKK in the past few weeks needs to be considered.

Attach that concept to the announcement of Maliki being invited to Ankara and we may have an indication of what is taking place.

It's a well known fact Turkey and Iraq have been struggling with the issue of the Kurds and the Oil the Kurds are selling... to Turkey by the way!

Stack that on top of the perception, rightfully so, that Iraq is supporting Iran's bidding to prop up Assad's regime in Syria and you have the makings of a real complex, regional dilemma.

 The support route through Iraq by Iran is undeniable along with the Turkish perception Iraq is urging on the PKK assaults in Turkey.

So, is all of this making Erdogan stay home from the UNGA?

It may not be the only reason, but it must be playing a part.

Notice the last question in the article about him not attending; the one about the US preventing Turkey from allowing anti air weapons from reaching the FSA / Rebels?

The rumors of these weapons entering the fight, specifically Surface to Air Missiles, have been floating around for weeks now.

The fact we have not seen a You Tube video of one being employed against Syrian aircraft is somewhat of a mystery; or is it?

Read the last article attached and you may be able to determine what the real issue is.

If Iran is flying commercial aircraft into Damascus Airport and the FSA / Rebels know  or believe these aircraft are carrying Iranian troops and weapons, why would they not work as hard as they could to bring one down?

A organization that can bomb the equivalent of the Syrian Pentagon and then physically assault the building, is capable of getting a show off near an international, civilian airport.

 Does anyone think the West, US, would not be worried sick about such an event taking place?

What would be the reaction of Iran?

Who would Iran blame for these SAM weapons showing up in the hands of the FSA/ Rebels? take your pick... Saudi / GCC // the US.

What might this type of event mean to the region and what would it mean if it were to take place before the November elections in the US?

Well; does Erdogan have a lot on his "plate"??? oh ya!!!!

Would he be upset the US is supposedly trying to hold back the implementation of SAM weapons in Syria?

Perhaps!

What is said between he and Maliki, if Maliki agrees to show up, might be very interesting.

Lets see if the meeting takes place.

Oh; by the way!

I can assure you the Ottoman Leader was surly not too happy with the Grandstanding the Muslim Brotherhood leader gave at the UNGA today.

They both have visions of being the Leader of the new Middle Eastern Movement and being out shined while you put up with the Iranian Puppet Maliki and the Kurd issue is not going to make Erdogan happy.

http://www.todayszaman.com/newsDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=293009

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=96123

http://www.debka.com/article/22385/Iranian-officers-reshape-Assad%E2%80%99s-Shabbiha-militia-into-a-second-al-Qods

THE WORDS OF A MADMAN???

Once again the Mad Carpet Rider makes a fool of himself on the floor of the UN, but then again, what's new about that?

He is set to give yet another tirade on the 27th and I'm confident his babbling will be just as incoherent as at anytime in the past.

For all the "talk" from this crazed fool, it seems simply amazing that anyone could possibly believe Iran could accomplish something as insane as destroying Israel.

The world is full of anti Zionist and as long as they are non violent, then most of the rest of the world simply doesn't care.

It's the ones who listen to delusional fools like Ahmadinejad that worry me, and by the way.... Ayatollah Khomeini is NOT one of the ones that listens to him... he doesn't even like the guy and he sure doesn't trust him!!!!

Now, I must admit, it is disheartening and even a little sickening to watch Western Media play to the Mad Carpet Rider / insert CNN here/!!

Just one time I wish someone would look into Ahmadinejad eye, his good one, and ask, " what do you think will happen to Iran if it does attempt to destroy Israel.. .do you think there would be anything left for the great Persian Empire to rule from"?

Everyone in the world knows what Israel's "final option" is for defeat, even this psychotic idiot from Iran understands.. he may not say so, but he does.. and his Master... Khomeini understands even if his Puppet doesn't.

What the Iranian people need to be thankful for is the simple fact that Israel doesn't judge the capabilities of Iran on the words of the Mad Carpet Rider.

The people of Iran have time, but not much, to keep their country safe.

If ever there was a time for the youth of Iran to move on the government, I would say it is now.. right now...

Time is not on their side and the "old ones" that rule the country are quickly sending the rest of the people of Iran into the abyss.

Thank God, most of the world sees Ahmadinejad as a crazed fool!

Israel will not be fooled into a regional war, but Israel will not allow Iran to reach nuclear weapons status and the world needs to understand that, regardless of who is having an election or who's economy is struggling.

No one really wants a war in the Middle East, not even the Iranian madmen, but lines have been drawn and sometimes you must push through terrible times to survive and that is something the Jewish people understand along with the Arabs.

Palestine is not the true  issue here...

The love of power and the thirst for conquest is an aphrodisiacs  for insane fanatics.

Listen to the Mad Carpet Rider at the UN this week.... and judge for yourself what options Israel has!

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2012-09/26/content_15783029.htm

THE SEEDS OF DISCONTENT MAY BE SPREADING

As you begin to ponder just what all of this might mean, I would not get your hopes up on who this group represents.

Rafsanjani was and in some circles is still seen, as someone the West can at leas hold intelligent conversations with.

Does that mean he is the answer to the world's prayers when it comes to Iran, probably not, but his resistance to the current leadership is noted.

Now, as all of us know, where a movement starts and where it ends is almost always two entirely different issues.

Faezeh Rafsanjani represents something Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Puppet Master Boss consider a true nightmare, the one that has haunted them from day one of the Arab Spring... Youthful Iranians who want change!

The very idea that the Iranian leadership waited this long to put RAfsanjani's daughter in jail speaks volumes to how worried the Iranian government truly  is.

The smell of Smoke, the smoke of discontent, lingers all over the countryside of Iran.

Young girls beating down fanatical clergy.... cyber cafés that pop up and stand down faster than the government can react to them... these are just some of the signs of how unstable Iran is becoming.

This week, the Mad Carpet Rider, Ahmadinejad will speak at the UN General Assembly  and his message will one that we all need to listen to carefully.

His "meaning" in-between words, must be scrutinized in great detail.

How frightened Iran is of change will be indicated by how radical the message is.

If there is anyone listening to what Ahmadinejad says, it will be the state of Israel.

In this apparent time of " Teletubbies" between now and the November elections in the US, it might very well be only Israel that listens to what Iran's message is to the UN; with the exception of Saudi and the GCC.

As I have said for over two years now, the race is a simple one, but one with cataclysmic consequences for the Western economy and the people of the Middle East.

Will Iran give way to the Arab Spring  model with people like Rafsanjani and his daughter or will Iran's fanatical leadership drive the nation to war and distruction to prevent the youth of Iran from coming to power.

Oh by the way, if and I say if the current Iranian government where to fall, don't bank on Western leaning, beer drinking supporters to coming rushing to the gate to great us.

It hasn't happened yet with all of this " wonderful" change in the Middle East.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=95976