THE DEATH OF A THOUSAND CUTS!!

The small town of Al -Bab is not as significant as the city of Aleppo, but then again the event itself could be a real indication of the status of the Syrian military.

Perception continues to rule the day in Syria and the "perception" that is out there is Assad's ground army is on the edge  of defeat.

It's becoming more and more clear the concept of a large ground offensive to take a city as large as Aleppo is a task too large for what is left of Assad's ground forces.

Not only would Assad's ground troops be unable to control the city of Aleppo if they could gain control, they would never be able  to give the people, what people are left, the confidence to turn Aleppo back into a business center.

The rebels true advantage is not in occupying the entire city.

Their version of a victory should be based upon denying Assad the ability to support his regime with economic support from Aleppo.

Choking off his economic lifeline is a strategic goal the rebels are close to completing.

So, the capture of a small town like Al - Bab is critical in the overall scheme of denial.

The more the rebels control the flow of commerce in the country side, the more Assad will have to adapt to a Berlin Airlift concept.

Even if he does hold the city of Damascus, and I'm not sure he does, if he loses the highways inside his land, then he doesn't control the country.

Again, an army that is too tired, too demoralized and soon under equipped, simply cannot hold every roadway providing the Syrian government support.

To put it simply, if nobody has noticed; Assad and his regime is dying " The Death of a Thousand Cuts".

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2012/07/201273154349545922.html

IRAN'S CONTINUED SUPPORT FOR ASSAD? LETS LOOK.

The second time in a little over a week the Iranian government has made a stronger than normal statement supporting Assad's regime.

In the Middle East, and in politics in general, when someone continues to voice their support for someone who is in trouble, that typically means they are about to give up on them!

Is this the case with Iran?

I don't believe so, not just yet.

I have said Iran is most likely trying to find an alternative future they can live with in Syria, but the baseline of what they would accept is still way off from what is being floated by the rebels and the rest of the world.

Tlass was an example of one of these attempts, but as I said yesterday, that is a distant dream right now.

What it appears Iran is doing is setting the bar and then making sure the rest of the world understands their baseline bargaining position.

Iran will not allow a Sunni / Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / style government; one that will lead to trouble within the Iranian population.

Iran may accept a Technocratic government that is "open" to all relationships as long as Hezbollah gets a free pass to travel and train in Syria.

Fat chance of that happening with the Sunni movement in the region.

Iran would be happy with a Syria that  falls into a prolonged civil crisis such as Lebanon did for over 15 years.

A Syria that is unable to counter Iran's plans is a Syria Iranian leadership can live with; not be happy, but live with.

Some may see this press statement by Iran's Foreign Minister is not merely a "line in the sand"; notice there is not warning of Iranian military support.

My impression is, this statement is just another way of Iran restating it's position on the crisis.

Oh, ya; notice they had to toss in the shot about the rebels being part of some larger Israeli plot!!!

I'm surprised Iran didn't mention George Bush.. it has the same worn out theme!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=279297

AS SYRIA RAGES... DON'T LOSE TRACK OF LEBANON.

Attached is a series of stories I read this week that have one common theme.

Lebanon is virtually at the edge of the abyss.

Tensions between Turkey and the Kurds boiled to the surface this week, but it was Lebanon that continue to catch my eye.

As you read these four stories, you can easily see just how unstable the government of Lebanon has become.

It's critical to keep track of the violence in Aleppo right now, but the issues of Kurds and Turks and the government of Lebanon are issues that must be watched as well.

Iran is struggling to find a suitable solution for the disaster that has become Syria and the fall of the pro Hezbollah government in Lebanon is more than Iran can handle.

If that's not enough, Iran now has to divert energy towards the issue of a growing Kurdish movement; a movement that has desires on Iranian land.

The March 14th part in Lebanon knows the timing is nearly right to strike a blow against the pro Hezbollah groups in Lebanon, but the reaction could be far more than they ready for.

In my opinion, Lebanon continues to be one big event away from a full-blown crisis; a crisis that  could quickly lead to a collapsed government.  

What worries we most, is the fatigue level of the people who are trying to keep the whole region from imploding.

Issue after issue continue to gain in complexity and speed.

At what point does it all simply become too much to keep together?

I say Lebanon is key.

Keeping Lebanon from conflict is key to keeping the region out of a regional war.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainra.asp?raid=9067

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainra.asp?raid=9068

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9168

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9178

IS EVERYONE REALLY LOOKING FOR A "COMPROMISE"???

A the talk in the past few days has been about finding a suitable replacement for Assad.

Someone the FSA, Russian, Turks, Iranians, GCC, and the rest of the world can accept.

If that sounds like a tall order, it is.

Oh, by the way, it needs to be someone Assad and his clan agree with as well, well... maybe!!

So, the name that is most batted around right now is ex General Tlass!

Tlass is a Sunni, a definite plus when it comes to the Turks and the Gulf States.

An issue Iran may be able to live with as long as he is more of a Technocrat type Sunni than a Muslim Brother model politician.

From the Russian perspective, they are just looking for a way out of a mess that has become way more complicated than they wanted. 

The issue with Putin will be, Tlass can't look like he was a US / Western idea!

If everyone wants Tlass to be the possible answer, then everyone is going to have to let the Tsar feel like it was his compromise.. that's what huge Egos do to people!

As for the Turks, the guys who want to be the new regional powerhouse, they are quickly growing more concerned about the Kurdistan issue than they are the replacement for Assad.

If Tlass is someone that can put the Kurd movement back in check, then he gets the Turk vote hands down.

From the US and Western perspective, anyone that can prevent a region war is going to get support even if that person turns out to be a flop down the road.

If that flop takes place after November of 2012, the US administration will be willing to walk away.

The Saudis and the rest of the GCC may not be totally happy with Tlass, at least that is the rumor right now, but they to could buy their time much as they have done in Yemen by supporting him for now.

Ok, here goes the million dollar question.

Are all parties involved getting closer to finding a way out of this crisis?

My bet is the answer is no.

Here is why I vote no.

First off, Assad gets a vote.

Now, rumors are flying he wants out, but I would say those rumors exist on websites and not in Assad's mind.

The deal to get Assad to step down is going to have to be complete amnesty for not only himself but for his loyal supporters. 

That's a order the FSA and the SNC simply will not fill.

For all the talk of a Yemen type scenario, the days of Assad getting a "deal" are gone!

Giving Assad a pass is quickly approaching the concept of ending WWII by finding a home for Hitler and the Nazi party somewhere in South America.

No, Assad can't go to Venezuela!

Chaves is on his death bed, he just doesn't believe it yet.

As soon as he is dead, Venezuela will have no opening for murderers looking for a place to hide.

No, the Tsar won't take him.

He has no need for him if he falls from power.

So you see, finding someone to run Syria is an issue for after Assad is gone.

The idea of finding someone and replacing Assad is absurd.

Now, the good news is, Russia or Iran could arrange for Assad to wake up dead!

If that were to happen, then the move to replace him will have to be a preset, pre agreed upon plan that can execute in a phone call.

If that is not the case, and I doubt it will be, then the country will turn into a revenge filled version of Zombie Land..

The short story tonight is this.

If you are listening to all the hype of a possible " compromise" you are probably setting yourself up for a real disappointment.

What is sure to happen is a bloodbath in Aleppo and that will change the course of the conflict for the worse.

Stack on top of that bad news, the real threat of the Kurdish uprising becoming an issue Turkey uses as an excuse to launch operations in Syria.

Turkish actions in Syria is exactly what Assad warned against this week and it may be just what he is praying for.

The good news is, Tlass has time to keep growing his hair out!

Lord knows what that look is all about!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=93046

KURDS MAKE THEIR MOVE?

One thing that is certain when dealing with a crisis such as the events in Syria.

You simply cannot predict the second and third order effects and the impact they will have on all parties.

It has been a real concern from the beginning of the actions in Syria that the Kurdish issue would rekindle.

Turkish leadership may not have made the Kurdish concern known in the early days of the Arab Spring , but they always had it in the back of their minds.

I can guarantee you it's been on the Kurd's mind from day one of the "Arab Spring".

What's good for the Goose is good for the Gander!

More importantly, this Kurdish issue is heavy on the minds of the struggling Iraqi government; a government that is very upset with Turkey over the developing oil trade with the Kurds of Northern Iraq.

 Along with Iraq and Turkey, Iran has a vote in the Kurdish issue as well given the desires the Kurds have for parts of Iranian land.

The prediction has been the destabilization of the region based on the ongoing events in Syria and this story is yet another indication that prediction is coming true.

PKK and PYD cooperation is a nightmare to Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq!

 The UN is a world body that is simply unable to deal with this "cooperation"; I.E. they can't betray the Kurds as they have in the past.

Simply put; the Kurds feel it could very well be "their time".

If leadership inside the PKK and the PYD are truly ready to cooperate, then the world has a whole new problem in the region.

Enter the Tsar!!

To Putin; Kurdistan is spelled "OIL"...

Kurds are not Arab... they don't have their sights on the Stans... they don't want a Muslim / Islamist capital in Chechnya.

Turkey is trying to work around Putin and the Stans when it come to oil.

Perhaps Putin is going to find a new friend in the concept of this "cooperation".

If you think not... do not forget the Tsar is the old Master of the KGB.

Make a friend one day and the next... a bullet to the back of the head.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=93033

MORE TALK OF " FREE ZONES OR "SAFE HAVENS".

It appears the conversation of " free zones" in Syria are back on the front burner along with the term of " Safe Havens".

The comment by the US Secretary of State in the past few days and then the issue of possible " Safe Havens" being created by Islamic Radical groups like IQA has once again given the free zone issue a time slot in the media.

Now, the US Secretary of State's comment was based on the possibility of the rebels actually controlling enough ground on the border of Syria to provide an operational staging area.

I am sure I'm not alone when I say, this idea is a stretch at best!

Any area the rebels may try to declare a " Safe Haven" will come under intense attack by a Syrian military this less restricted with each passing day.

If you ever wanted to invite the threat of WMD operations, then let the rebels announce such an area with only supporters left living in it.

In fact, what the rebels would be doing is providing the Syrian military a conventional warfare target.

In reality the rebels would be changing tactics from a prolonged and so far successful unconventional fight into a standard, purely kinetic weapons fight; something a large standing military is designed to deal with.

A fixed target area with operational, logistical events taking place is a conventional target and would be treated as such.

As has always been the case, the topic of a rebel free zone will still require air superiority and that is something the rebels have no chance of executing without "outside help".

Remember, it is this threat of "outside help" that Assad and Iran have both threatened to respond to.

So, I think the concept of a rebel "Free Zone" is still as distant as it was over a year ago if not further away than before.

By the way; a city that is in partial rebel control or a border crossing is not a " free zone".

WHAT ABOUT THE TALK OF A IAQ / AQ / "FREE ZONE"  ON THE IRAQ BORDER:

If there is an organization that has addpated to the "Free Zone" concept, it's AQ and IAQ.

IAQ conducted just such an operation against the US for the past nine years working out of Syria.

The expectations of what a "Free Zone" should provide are much different for AQ.

That issue is the key point of difference when someone talks about "Free Zones" for the rebels and "Free Zones" for AQ.

To organizations like IAQ, a "Free Zone" is still a covert location where missions are still covertly planned and prepared.

To the Western way of thinking, a "Free Zone" is more like a Beachhead as in D Day; a location where one can execute day to day operations with impunity.

Given this doctoral difference in what a " Free Zone" is, all the talk of a "free zone" being established in Syria,  might be much more achievable for IAQ / SAQ than for the rebels.

IAQ/ SAQ "free zones" will be a version of  living inside the host!.

My speculation is, IAQ / SAQ and others are already operating "Free Zones" inside or near Syira; namely in Iraq.

The simple fact of the matter is this!

Assad's dwindling forces are in a desperate struggle to save Aleppo and

Damascus without destroying the very cities they are attempting to save.

The issue for Syria is no longer just that of a civil war.

The concern for Syria is now what many feared over a year ago.

Syria is becoming the battle ground of a sectarian war.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/25/world/middleeast/al-qaeda-insinuating-its-

way-into-syrias-conflict.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&ei=5065&partner=MYWAY

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f8d7148c-d56c-11e1-b306-00144feabdc0.html#axzz21gSoe2Ye

IS IRAN FINALLY PLAYING IT'S HAND?

This press announcement by Masoud Jazayeri is interesting.

It is my understanding,  this is the first open press release, if you can call

the Fars News agency open, where Iran warns other Arab states to stay out of

the events taking place in Syria.

The mostly muted microphone from Tehran has been more than unusual over the

past sixteen months of conflict in Syria.

Most governments understand explicitly the strategic importance of Syria to

Iran.

It's for that exact reason the mostly silent response from Tehran on Syria

has been puzzling.

Iran's support to Assad's government is undeniable, but the open criticism

public information campaign by Iran has been virtually nonexistent. 

 So why this bold statement now and why such a precise message to Saudi?

I'm not sure the Iranian leadership was has ever been really convinced Assad

would fall.

With the events of the past week and the feedback Tehran must be receiving

from its operatives in Syria that thought process may have just officially

changed.

I would be willing to bet Iran has been contemplating Assad's fall and a

Sunni government in Syria, but the Risk Assessment Iran calculated did not

lead them to believe they need to place a bold warning to the supporters of

the rebels.

Again, that appears to have changed.

The attacks in Damascus, Aleppo and the border crossings all taking place

within a one week period has apparently had a dramatic impact on Iran.

Floating this threat by a lower level Commander is a sign the Iranian's are

still cautious of drawing a line in the sand, just yet.

My bet is, if actions in Aleppo continue and the border crossings are not

secured, thus preventing resupply, Iran will ratchet up this warning.

Assad's statement about WMD operations followed by this Iranian threat is no

coincidence.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=278729