ONCE A SUNNI... ALWAYS A SUNNI!!!!

How big a deal is the defection of Sawaf al-Fares?

You can bet the knee-jerk answer from the talking heads will be, " it's a true indicator his 'inner circle' may be cracking"!!

Is that what this really means?

Perhaps, but the perception advantage will not be lost on the rebels.

what it does prove to Assad, is something that should have been obvious to him from the start.

Once a Sunni... always a Sunni!!!

Now, did Sawaf, find his religion and defect or did he come to realize he was going to end up like the Bath party members in Iraq in the near future?

The danger of this event is very similar to the fighter pilot defections.

It will all but seal the fate of fellow Sunnis who Assad still believes are on his side.

His paranoia level, one that is already sky high, is going to get much worse.

This will only compound the fear of the Sunni who have stuck by his side, most for financial reasons and some out of simple fear.

If Iran doesn't have  eyes on the Sunni elite still in Damascus, I would be stunned!!!!

So, back to the question is this a  "big deal"?

My answer; not because he is a "big name", but because of what it will mean to Assad's failing trust in the Sunni still siding with him.

A crack in the Assad camp??

I would say it's an earthquake in the Sunni / Assad camp!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=277171

UN REACHES OUT TO IRAN OVER SYRIA??

Reaching out to Iran over Syria is like reaching out to one Crime Family in order to influence another.

An argument can be made for both sides of this concept.

The UN realizes the real decisions on Syria are made in Tehran with some consideration going to Moscow.

Given the current environment between the US and Iran, it's logical to let the UN be the "messenger" to Iran.

So, does it make sense to " reach out" to Iran?

Yes.

Will it lead to any tangible results?

Probably not, at least not anytime soon and the people of Syria don't have a lot of time.

If Iran's official position is  based on Syrian elections in 2014, then must realize how idiotic that sounds to the rest of the world.

It also gives the perception Iran is not serious about Assad's future.

My bet is, Iran is serious about Assad's future and the future of Syria, but they are not going to spell out their vision to the UN, at least not yet.

The other issue the UN has it taking any message from Assad back to the rebels, other than the message of " I'm leaving".

Ok, so Iran is finally involved in the topic of Syria, officially!

Does that mean we should be getting our hopes up?

Don't hold your breath.

The fact of the matter is, Iran has involved in this issue for months now and we all can see what results that has given us.

Here is a interesting side note.

Let's play " What if" for a minute..

What if. Iraq becomes the new Syria for Iran?

Does Iran need Syria and it's support operations for Hezbollah if Iraq solidifies as Iran's new proxy nation?

I asked this question because I've been listening to this "theory" for months now.

Here is my input.

Iraq is not Syria and Iraq cannot control Lebanon.

So, no there is not possible "proxy exchange" formulary out there; just incase you hear that train of thought from the so called " experts".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18784286

ONCE AGAIN.. LEBANON BECOMES THE ISSUE!

In all the other news from the Middle East and given the fact the target

agreed to hold off until today to hold a press conference, it's easy to see

why this story in not very well covered.

Never the less, yet another attempt on the opposition, opposition to the

Hezbollah that is, is an indication of just how unstable Lebanon is.

Hezbollah knows the fall of the current coalition government in Lebanon at a

time when Hezbollah is heavily tasked by Iran to support Syria, is a

disastrous issue for them, at least I hope it is.

How they have come to the conclusion that a successful assassinations of

opposition members could help stave off the possible fall of the current

government is a mystery to me, unless they are willing to see the current government fall???

 One thing is absolute; nothing invites crisis like a failed assassination!

I'm still convinced events in Lebanon are vital to the overall future of the

region.

I'm even more concerned that Iran would support a Hezbollah plan to threaten

the current opposition leadership.

Assassinations and the talk of them is still an extremely emotional topic

for Lebanon.

Threatening members of the March 14th group, a group that had its leader

blown up in 2005, hardly seems the way to keep the peace.

If Iran is so desperate now that they have come around to the theory of a lighting a

"back fire" to relive the pressure on Syria, then the whole region is at a

crisis point. 

The last article attached is by Robert Fisk and talks to the issue of Sheikh Al Assir, the "roadblocker" of Lebanon.

He is quickly becoming a Sunni National Hero and he knows it!

He is a flame near the fuel of violence that Hezbollah must not touch, unless they want to.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9116

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9115

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-the-rebel-sheikh-defying-hezbollah-to-take-aim-at-assad-7923384.html

SIGNS OF A SYRIAN GOVERNMENT ON THE BRINK?

Two interesting reports that paint a picture of what many fear, a Syrian government that is near the state of panic.

The old saying goes, " a picture is worth a thousand words"; in this case it's a video.

A few weeks ago I spoke of what a dramatic change of events it had become when the rebels could stand their ground against "regular military units" and win!

It became even more important to realize the rebels could limit the movement of Syrian Military members and leadership inside their own  installations; a true measure of a military on the defense, not offense.

In the first attached report, the video shows the rebels not only taking a key Headquarters facility, but having the time to wire the whole thing to blow up!

This is a force that has the advantage, and the Syrian Military knows it.

The second article hints at something that is even far more dangerous for the region than a rebel force that is able to take the offense.

It speaks to an issue most of the world has forgotten.

Syria is a nation of complex, massive WMD weapons.

A few weeks ago I talked about the danger of these WMD locations staying in the hands of the Syrian government and even the negotiations that took place between the US and Russia to keep these weapons safe.

 Assad sees his military now engaged in conventional combat in multiple locations inside of Syria.

He sees his military consuming it's conventional stockpile of military hardware at an alarming rate.

More importantly, he sees his countries ability to defend itself  rapidly decreasing.

A military that know longer believes it can win and no longer believes it's leadership is trying to win is a military that will no longer shed it's blood!

A civilian population that is no longer willing to follow it's leadership, is a civilian population that will no longer allow a leader to stay in power.

So, what is Assad's options?

More importantly, what are Iran's options?

The military " exercise" over the past few days is a clear sign to anyone that is paying attention.

Assad is telling the region and the world he is close to making everyone pay a price of his departure.

Creating an "external" threat to attempt to rally the people and the military is his last desperate act, or is it?

The DEBKA article talks to something that world leaders realize.

Assad and his Iranian handlers have one terrible option left!!

The most important question of this long conflict finally comes to the table.

Will Assad use his WMD?

Will the Iranians force him to use them?

Such a act would spell a crisis beyond explanation for the region and Iran knows this.

Does a imploded Syria, something that Iran cannot live with, mean Iran is now calling the shots in Syria?

He is my question.

If Assad were to give the order, would his military leaders follow it?

Who left him last week?

Why?

Does he control his WMD or do the Iranians?

Starting a "external" conflict is his only option left, unless he decides to use his WMD arsenal.

Two options and both of them are disastrous for the region.

It's time for his most trusted military leaders to turn on him, that is if they are left.

I fear his real military leaders now wear Iranian uniforms.

http://www.aljazeera.com/video/middleeast/2012/07/201278104350616752.html

http://www.debka.com/article/22162/Clinton-Syria-on-brink-of-catastrophe-as-rebels-advance-The-region-in-danger

THE ARAFAT  MYSTERY DRAW A RESPONSE.

As the mystery of Arafat's death continues to be reexamined, lets look at a person who, in my opinion, deserves a thorough review... .his Widow!!

Suha Arafat was considered, "Controversial" from the moment she married Arafat.

She was seen, and most likely still is, a ... let us say.... "Opportunist".  a less polite way of saying a "gold-digger" who latched onto the Old Man Arafat in the classic " Sugar Daddy" Con play.

She was never well received in the inner circle of the Palestinian Authority and was tolarated for the simple reason nobody wanted to challenge the wishes of their leader, and Hero......Arafat.

Can you imagine of even a second a Muslim female who dies her hair blond, wears "form fitting clothes" and God forbid... open toe shoes????

What the attached story from back in 2004 does a great job of, is telling the story of how she allegedly became wealthy on the backs of the PA people.

This is a perception that is seen as fact in the PA even today.

So, for the sake of argument, lets supposed this  reopened case is the brain child of the Blond haired Muslim Widow.

Why?

Was she prompted to approach Al Jazeera?

Was Al Jazeera just looking for a way to create the Arab Spring event in Israel they have been dying to cover?

How does this whole Arafat story play out for Hamas?

How does it play out for Abbas, one of the ones the Widow accused of trying to take over for her beloved Husband?

One thing is for certain.

The key member of this investigation is a person of questionable motive.... in my opinion at least.

By the way, I watched her in the one hour special Al Jazerra ran on Tuesday and I think she was a fake as a three dollar bill!!!

As I told an old retired FBI friend of my yesterday, there is something up with this story and the truth is going to be a vital ingredient required to battle the already growing perception problem in the Arab word.

The second article attached indicates the challenge to the "theory" is already being put to the public.

The problem is, the public in this case is the Arab / Muslim world, and they have somewhat of a bias perception to begin with.

If I had to rebut the implied allegation that Israel was behind this event, I would concentrate on the Widow and who she had contact with prior to the Al Jazeera story.

The problem for her, like every other event in the Middle East, is the issue being "hijacked" by others who can weaponize the issue.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35240-2004Nov8.html

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=276447

   

ARAFAT....  WAS HE MURDERED?

Al Jazeera dropped a bombshell that most other media outlets are going to be slow to respond to given Al Jazeera did the investigative work.

The question becomes, are they really on to something?

My hunch is they are and for that reason I believe this story could go big real fast.

As you watch the clip   http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/whatkilledarafat/2012/07/201273181058734888.html

you will see what appears to be a compelling story that is worthy of further investigation.

Given the energy  Al Jazeera has, this will be one of their cornerstone investigations, if not their biggest one ever.

Would it be a surprise if some organization could point a finger at Israel for the death of Arafat?

Not really.

 That was the theory when he died, they just couldn't prove it with him being

buried within 24hrs of death and no autopsy.

If his wife agrees  to have his body exhumed, and it appears she has, this could turn into a full  blown crisis.

If you wanted a rallying cry for large scale protest in Israel, this would

be  just the ticket.

What I find even more interesting is the unique way he may have been murdered and the similarity to the murdered Russian Spy two years afterwards.

When it comes to the Middle East, there is no such thing as a coincidence.

What I find even more interesting is who would have benefited from Arafat's death?

Israel is an easy, uneducated answer.

Let me stir the pot just a little.

How about Hamas??

How about Abbas?

In the Al Jazeera story, notice the segment touching on when Arafat's wife called Al Jazeera when he was near death.

Notice who she stated was behind it?

With the death of the Fatah hero, Hamas was sure to rise to power... as they did!

So, like any good murder mystery....... who really killed Arafat, if he was killed?

Was there coconspirators?

If so, and we all know there is always coconspirators in political murders, then who were they and how nervous are they now about this story?

Notice how the Palestinian Doctors who were involved are so reluctant to talk to Al Jazeera?

Would they be that way if Israel was solely responsible for this event?

I don't think so.

This story has all the makings of a " game changer".

The question becomes, who tries to make it so?

The other fact of the matter is this; the truth may will get lost in the youth of the Arab world and we all know  perception rules in the Middle East.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/whatkilledarafat/2012/07/201273836537747

94.html

I WILL SAY IT AGAIN.. LEBANON HOLDS THE KEY TO THE MIDDLE EAST!

With all the continued attention going to events in Syria, it is vital we do

not forget what I consider  the real " Red Line" trigger is  for Iran; Lebanon.

Sleiman appears to be at the point of failure of keeping the coalition

government together.

Hezbollah , along with Iranian handlers, has  watching the actions of Sleiman and the collation government for well over a year now.

At first it was the issue of the Lebanese government's reaction to the UN investigation of the assignation of Lebanese PM Hariri... remember that event... The one where Syrian Asssad openly threatened Hariri in 2004???? 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101201741.html

As the Arab Spring took hold and Syria began to unravel, Hezbollah became even more worried about the "loyalty" of the Lebanese government.

And that is the issue now more than ever.

Can and will Sleiman keep the pro Hezbollah Lebanese government together?

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9088

This is a vital question to the entire region and the actions of Sheikh Ahmad are doing nothing but making the parnoia of Hezbollah and Iran even worse.

 Don't forget, as the  anti Hezbollah movement continues to grow in Lebanon it's this group that supports the resistance in Syria.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9084

Finally;

If Iran is nearing its breaking point, then it will look for any event that

could justify it's actions or condoning the actions of it's proxies such as

Hezbollah.

Now, this "event" today may simply be the IDF covering their tracks in Lebanon, but it's an event like this that could easily give Iran the excuse it is looking for.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=276030