THE ARAFAT  MYSTERY DRAW A RESPONSE.

As the mystery of Arafat's death continues to be reexamined, lets look at a person who, in my opinion, deserves a thorough review... .his Widow!!

Suha Arafat was considered, "Controversial" from the moment she married Arafat.

She was seen, and most likely still is, a ... let us say.... "Opportunist".  a less polite way of saying a "gold-digger" who latched onto the Old Man Arafat in the classic " Sugar Daddy" Con play.

She was never well received in the inner circle of the Palestinian Authority and was tolarated for the simple reason nobody wanted to challenge the wishes of their leader, and Hero......Arafat.

Can you imagine of even a second a Muslim female who dies her hair blond, wears "form fitting clothes" and God forbid... open toe shoes????

What the attached story from back in 2004 does a great job of, is telling the story of how she allegedly became wealthy on the backs of the PA people.

This is a perception that is seen as fact in the PA even today.

So, for the sake of argument, lets supposed this  reopened case is the brain child of the Blond haired Muslim Widow.

Why?

Was she prompted to approach Al Jazeera?

Was Al Jazeera just looking for a way to create the Arab Spring event in Israel they have been dying to cover?

How does this whole Arafat story play out for Hamas?

How does it play out for Abbas, one of the ones the Widow accused of trying to take over for her beloved Husband?

One thing is for certain.

The key member of this investigation is a person of questionable motive.... in my opinion at least.

By the way, I watched her in the one hour special Al Jazerra ran on Tuesday and I think she was a fake as a three dollar bill!!!

As I told an old retired FBI friend of my yesterday, there is something up with this story and the truth is going to be a vital ingredient required to battle the already growing perception problem in the Arab word.

The second article attached indicates the challenge to the "theory" is already being put to the public.

The problem is, the public in this case is the Arab / Muslim world, and they have somewhat of a bias perception to begin with.

If I had to rebut the implied allegation that Israel was behind this event, I would concentrate on the Widow and who she had contact with prior to the Al Jazeera story.

The problem for her, like every other event in the Middle East, is the issue being "hijacked" by others who can weaponize the issue.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A35240-2004Nov8.html

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=276447

   

ARAFAT....  WAS HE MURDERED?

Al Jazeera dropped a bombshell that most other media outlets are going to be slow to respond to given Al Jazeera did the investigative work.

The question becomes, are they really on to something?

My hunch is they are and for that reason I believe this story could go big real fast.

As you watch the clip   http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/whatkilledarafat/2012/07/201273181058734888.html

you will see what appears to be a compelling story that is worthy of further investigation.

Given the energy  Al Jazeera has, this will be one of their cornerstone investigations, if not their biggest one ever.

Would it be a surprise if some organization could point a finger at Israel for the death of Arafat?

Not really.

 That was the theory when he died, they just couldn't prove it with him being

buried within 24hrs of death and no autopsy.

If his wife agrees  to have his body exhumed, and it appears she has, this could turn into a full  blown crisis.

If you wanted a rallying cry for large scale protest in Israel, this would

be  just the ticket.

What I find even more interesting is the unique way he may have been murdered and the similarity to the murdered Russian Spy two years afterwards.

When it comes to the Middle East, there is no such thing as a coincidence.

What I find even more interesting is who would have benefited from Arafat's death?

Israel is an easy, uneducated answer.

Let me stir the pot just a little.

How about Hamas??

How about Abbas?

In the Al Jazeera story, notice the segment touching on when Arafat's wife called Al Jazeera when he was near death.

Notice who she stated was behind it?

With the death of the Fatah hero, Hamas was sure to rise to power... as they did!

So, like any good murder mystery....... who really killed Arafat, if he was killed?

Was there coconspirators?

If so, and we all know there is always coconspirators in political murders, then who were they and how nervous are they now about this story?

Notice how the Palestinian Doctors who were involved are so reluctant to talk to Al Jazeera?

Would they be that way if Israel was solely responsible for this event?

I don't think so.

This story has all the makings of a " game changer".

The question becomes, who tries to make it so?

The other fact of the matter is this; the truth may will get lost in the youth of the Arab world and we all know  perception rules in the Middle East.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/whatkilledarafat/2012/07/201273836537747

94.html

I WILL SAY IT AGAIN.. LEBANON HOLDS THE KEY TO THE MIDDLE EAST!

With all the continued attention going to events in Syria, it is vital we do

not forget what I consider  the real " Red Line" trigger is  for Iran; Lebanon.

Sleiman appears to be at the point of failure of keeping the coalition

government together.

Hezbollah , along with Iranian handlers, has  watching the actions of Sleiman and the collation government for well over a year now.

At first it was the issue of the Lebanese government's reaction to the UN investigation of the assignation of Lebanese PM Hariri... remember that event... The one where Syrian Asssad openly threatened Hariri in 2004???? 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/12/AR2005101201741.html

As the Arab Spring took hold and Syria began to unravel, Hezbollah became even more worried about the "loyalty" of the Lebanese government.

And that is the issue now more than ever.

Can and will Sleiman keep the pro Hezbollah Lebanese government together?

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9088

This is a vital question to the entire region and the actions of Sheikh Ahmad are doing nothing but making the parnoia of Hezbollah and Iran even worse.

 Don't forget, as the  anti Hezbollah movement continues to grow in Lebanon it's this group that supports the resistance in Syria.

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=9084

Finally;

If Iran is nearing its breaking point, then it will look for any event that

could justify it's actions or condoning the actions of it's proxies such as

Hezbollah.

Now, this "event" today may simply be the IDF covering their tracks in Lebanon, but it's an event like this that could easily give Iran the excuse it is looking for.

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=276030

TRANSITION PLAN??? YA.. RIGHT!!!

So the UN has yet another "UN Movement"!!

A Transition plan for Syria that leaves it up to the "Syrian people" to "Figure it out".

What the UN touts about is the fact the major world governments "agreed" on this plan, to include the Russians!!!

Wow....

So what does that mean?

Nothing!!!

Nothing and every world " leader" knows it.

Did it help the UN and Annan save face?

Perhaps just a little bit.

When you look at the verbiage, it sounds as if the Russians viewpoint was the prevailing theme; "let the Syrian people decide what the transition government should look like".

All in all, it all comes down to yet another UN farce that looks to protect the image of the UN and not really solve anything.

Does anyone really think the opposition and the Assad regime are going to sit down and agree to a "joint / coalition government"?

Really????

I would have been embarrassed to announce such a "plan".

Give this story another 24hrs and it will be easy to see what a joke this meeting turned out to be.

The real story in the past two days has been the scrambled fighters from Turkey and the rumors of more Turkish combat units showing up on the Syrian border.

Scrambled jets and troops in close contact to each other are recipes for "mistakes" and mistakes right now are more than dangerous; they could be disastrous.

DOES THE ARAB LEAGUE  HAVE A "PLAN"???

Stories have been flying all week long about Nations in the Middle East taking actions that appear to be military preparations.

Rumors are moving faster than usual even for the Middle East.

Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood may want a nice systematic  rhythm to events around them, but they are quickly learning how difficult it is to lead once you are a "leader"!

Turkey really doesn't want a war, but they must show their people they are not "soft".

Iran.. well.. we all know where Iran stands...  " Use of Lose" is quickly becoming their only option.

Israel movement of units based on possible "issues" along the Syrian border  are mirrored by actions in Jordan and now Saudi.

So, is the whole region working the their way towards a conflict none of them with perhaps the exception of Assad and Iran want?

The verbiage in the first article leads me to believe the Arab League believes a conflict is about to take place.

It sounds as if the AL has all but written off the Annan pipedream.

The world seems to think the Russians, the US and the UN will decide if conflict is going to take place in the Middle East.

It's amazing how the old Colonial "Think" is still alive and well.

If the AL has decided to take matters into their own hands and they have come to some level of agreement with Turkey, who would love to be seen as the new " go to power" in the region, then the rest of the world may just have to sit back an react to what takes place.

Think about Putin's trip to Israel this week?

What does Putin know that we may not?

Did Putin show up in Israel and do what we did in Desert Storm; convince Israel to stay out of a Arab on Arab conflict?

Does the AL and the GCC have the military capability to move into Syrian land for the sake of a " safe zone"?

Are the Arabs ready for what that might mean?

They may think so, but I for one hope this is not fantasy they are living under.

Trying to show the world the AL or the GCC is ready to lead the region is a goal, but blundering into a war with a nation like Syria who has a partner such as Iran is a wild dream at best.

One concept that worries me is the AL and the GCC and perhaps even Turkey, a NATO member, are convinced that if they start a fight, the rest of the world will have to get involved.

I know this; something is " cooking" with the GCC and the AL.

Very well equipped, very poorly trained military units can easily start an event that spirals out of control in short order.

Here is the point we cannot forget!

The rest of the world, as hard as it tries, may not prevent the AL and or the GCC from doing something disastrous.

Everyone is ecstatic of the EU pipedream of economic turnaround.

I'm afraid that issue is about to take a backseat to other events.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/29/us-syria-crisis-talks-idUSBRE85S11I20120629

http://www.debka.com/article/22145/Saudis-forces-mass-on-Jordanian-Iraqi-borders-Turkey-Syria-reinforce-strength

ASSAD, " THIS IS A JOKE"?? SO NOW WE KNOW IT'S TRUE!!!

So Assad gives a speech today and comments that Iranian support inside Syria is a "joke"?

I would be willing to bet the Saudi's and the rest of the region are not laughing at this "joke".

Two days ago I mentioned I had a fear about events in Syria, other than the common fear of a regional war; a regional war Assad will not get a chance to vote for.

Here is the "fear" I was making reference to.

If we consider Assad's Generals may be close to deciding in favor of the future of  the Syrian people over the future of Assad, then Assad and his Brother will know this danger is amongst them.

Imagine a Syrian military that has a majority of it's leadership and foot solders no longer willing to take orders?

Remember last week when I talked the danger of defections at the unit level, such as the Air Defense Brigade that joined the Rebels?

Now, imagine Iranian military leaders, who are already in Syria and have been for months, knowing the Syrian Military Leaders may be plotting to make a move on Assad.

Is the day near where Assad has to rely on Iranian leadership  to fight his battles because he can no longer trust his own Generals?

How does Iran justify to the UN the out in the open issue of Iranian Military Commanders actually leading engagements against the Syrian people?

If Iran is committed to keeping Syria in it's "Camp", then they will have to figure out a way to sell this event.

The only way Iran stands a chance of doing so, is painting a picture of coming to the aid of the "Syrian people" not Assad and doing so because an "outsider' has entered the conflict.

Yep... If Iran needs this chain of events to happen in order to react to a Syrian military that is too weak to win and no longer run by leaders who can be trusted, then all that I have said is going to have to happen.

If this is going to take place, it's going to have to happen soon!!!!

The neighbors of Syria are nervous and well as their militaries.

Iran is closer to needing an "Event" than anytime in the past year.

How does Iran justify setting foot on Syrian land?

They must be coming to the rescue!!!!

What they are missing is a "Invader"

What they are missing is Assad saying Syria is at war with "outside forces"...

OH ya... He just said that this week.

Let's see what may be about to happen?

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275682

SIDENOTE:

Saudi is convenced a fight with Iran is coming.

Look at the Reuters story today.

I will talk more about Saudi tomorrow. 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/28/us-saudi-oil-hormuz-idUSBRE85R0KT20120628

SO... WHO KILLED KAMAL RANAJA?

So, a key player in Hamas is assassinated in Damascus?

A Hamas member who had ties to al-Mabhouh who the Israelis did get in Dubai back in 2010; a bold killing at that!

Ranaja was absolutely on the Israeli target list, but would they kill him in Damascus, a city in the middle of a civil war; a civil war that already has the entire region on the edge of conflict?

Would Israel want a truly mid level player in Hamas so bad as to take the risk of activating a "kill team" inside Damascus?

My hunch is they would not.

What is really to gain by making this move at this moment in time?

So, who else would want him dead?

If you guessed Assad, you are more in tune with the dealings of the region right now than most.

We cannot forget Hamas openly turned it's back on Assad and that act was bound to cause some level of repercussion.

Now, it's a good knee-jerk reaction for Hamas to point the finger at Israel.

I would be willing to bet many inside Hamas are pointing the finger at Assad.

Having said that, is Israel clever enough to know they could hit this guy and let Assad take the blame?

Don't you just love the drama of world espionage?

What is interesting is the idea of Assad killing a Hamas member as a message to Hamas.

Messages such as this one are not well received in the Middle East and Hamas will find a way to answer the message.

I say it was Assad and I say it's just another indication of how desperate Assad has become.

Let's see what Hamas does.

Things are "hot" right now in Gaza and lower level units may react to the news before they get the word on what Hamas really believes happened.

Miscalculations is a common event in the Middle East and we may be in for yet another one.

http://www.israelandstuff.com/assassination-in-damascus-mabhouhs-aide-killed

  http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=275522