PUTTING HEZBOLLAH ON THE SPOT.  A BRILLIANT MOVE!

Well, as is sometimes the case in the Middle East, the story has changed again and again.

Last week the "Breaking News" was the Lebanese Hostages were " about to be freed!

The line of who was taking credit for the breakthrough was longer than the list of suspects who kidnapped them.

"They will be free shortly.... They will be home today... They are on their way back to Lebanon"... and so on and so on and so on......

It's June and that promise, like so many in that part of  the world, has been broken again and again.

Turning them over without getting anything out of it never really seemed a logical end-state to this event, and it turns out it wasn't.

So what are the Rebels who hold them going to get out of this?

I will be the fist to admit, the final asking price was one not even I would have thought of!

Not money... not a prisoner exchange, at least not yet.... but the perhaps the most damaging thing anyone could have come up with.

To ask Nasrallah to apologize for something he said and to make Hezbollah humiliate themselves in every Middle Eastern media network there is, and they would all cover it, with the exception of Syria and Iran, is a stroke of genius.

Why genius?

Think about what this demand does?

If Nasrallah refuses to make such an apology, then he and Hezbollah must face the Shia families in Lebanon.

The fate of Lebanese Shia, the very people LH is sworn to protect, is in the hands of Nasrallah!

I wonder how long it took his Iranian Masters to call him?

If Nasrallah gives in, then whatever statement he gives, even if it's at 5am in 10 second sound bite, will be heard and replayed a thousand times in the region alone.

Creating a split, no matter how small, between Hezbollah and Iran  is the goal is the end result.

To the rebels, the end state is humiliating LH in Lebanon.

Now, let me end this analysis by stating the obvious.  

A boxed in.... potentially humiliated Hezbollah is a very....very... dangerous animal!

This could end with the classic, "be careful what you ask for", but I must admit, it was a brilliant concept.

Score one for the rebels.... for now!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=272262

IRAN... PLAYING IT JUST AS I THOUGHT THEY WOULD!

The story of Chicken Little is about to apply  to the Middle East.

For over a year now, many of us have warned how out of control the Syrian event could become.

I have said time and time again, Iran cannot accept the loss of Syria, Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah.

These are Red Flag issues that would push Iran into a corner they would have no option but to fight from.

The fall of Assad leads to the fall of the current coalition government in Lebanon, a coalition government that is controlled by Hezbollah.. the Iranian Puppet.

Hamas has been lost to the Muslim Brotherhood and only small factions inside Gaza remain committed to doing the potential bidding of Iran...

The saving grace for Iran in the Hamas issue would be the amount of damage that could still be launched from Gaza.. an event Israel would have to react to neutralize.

The troubles in Iraq I wrote about last night only add to the paranoia building inside Iran.

Nothing is going their way.

Even Azerbaijan is beginning to increase it's resistance to Iranian influence.

So, it must be no surprise to anyone the statements coming out of Iran.

The problem is, for too long people have talked of wars and rumors of wars when it comes to the Persians.

I fear many are simply not listening or have simply adopted the " Chicken Little Syndrome"..

What's important here is the sequence of these announcements.

Larijani knew full well the briefing that was taking place at the UN today.

In the minds of the Iranians, the comments by the US Ambassador to the UN, Susan Rice, were focused directly at the supporters of Assad.

The idea of the US pressuring the UN to realize the time for unarmed, passive observer missions in Syria may be coming to an end is a warning to Iran... at least that is how Iran will have interpreted the statement.

Threatening a regional war is one of the last options the Iranians actually have.

Many may say the price is too high for Iran to take such reckless action, but the moment of truth is closing in on Iran quickly.

I have predicted for months now, Hezbollah is the key to what Iran is willing to do.

If War in the region is the option Iran takes, then Hezbollah will be the key to the initial act.

Making Israel overreact is the key to Iran having any chance of keeping the Arab Muslims on their side of the war and even then it will not work with the GCC / Turkey and Egypt.

Now is the moment is pre -conflict events when Nation States decide to take sides or sit  it out!

Some are often forced into the fight and as such, they  limit their involvement.

The fact of the matter is this.

Iran grows more dangerous by the day....

Options are limited and growing smaller by the day.

As soon as everyone thinks conflict is about to start, it probably will.

I'm not sure what Ambassador's Rice's comments meant to the US people, if they even heard them, but I know what they meant to the Iranian leadership.

I wonder how many phone calls are taking place between Moscow and Tehran?

Oh ya... 85 dollar a barrel oil is bad for the Tsar!!!!

This is a fight he may make a killing off of!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=272093

TROUBLE FOR IRAQ??  WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Ok, if anyone really anticipated a working relationship between the Kurds, Sunni and Shia in Iraq, I have some Swamp Land in Arizona I would like to sell you!

I'm not sure the world was paying attention last week when the Kurds announced the oil pipeline deal with Turkey.

If you noticed, it didn't go over well with Maliki and his followers.

As for the relationship between Maliki and Muqteda Al Sadr... well there really isn't one and that's been the case for a long time.

Now, Maliki and Sadr have both been Iranian puppets for the past several years and for the most part, they have both done as they have been told.

Here comes the rub!

Maliki and Sadr do happen to have something in common, they both don't really like being told what to do!

That trouble is only compounded by the fact the Persians are once again dictating to the Arabs.... A group of Persians and Arabs that just so happen to fight a extremely violent war less than one generation ago.. a war Maliki remembers as a man and a war Sadr remembers as a young man.

Here comes the second part of the issue.

Maliki is much more of a autocrat than he is a " religious man".

Maliki's love of power comes far before his faith.

Sadr... well he's a guy trying to grow into his Father's shoes.

On top of that complex, he loves power just as much as Maliki.

The difference is, Sadr loves the religious power he feels entitled to.

Well, by this time, you may have figured it out.

We are dealing with the Kurds who want their own land and two ego maniacs that have grown tired of listening to Iran.

So, how much trouble is Iraq really in?

A whole lot of trouble.

I'm not sold on the theory that Iran is happy with Sadr making a move on Maliki.

The last thing Iran needs right now is their other puppet government sliding into crisis, especially at the hands of two Arabs who are supposed to be taking orders from the Persians!

Oh ya, the idea of the Kurds making a deal with the Turks... Ottomans.... makes perfect sense.

They have what the Ottomans need and want...... OIL!!!!!

Yes Ladies and Gentlemen, you can soon add Iraq to the list of troubles in the Middle East, as if they hadn't been!

Great news to the GCC and Saudi..

The King can sit in Saudi and stick his finger in the other eye of the Iranians.

We will have to watch to see where this one goes.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90647

SO.. WHO REALLY THINKS IT WASN'T ASSAD'S FAULT?

As would be expected, Assad, Russia and the Syrian Puppet Master Iran all tried their best today to place the blame for the  massacre on anyone other than Assad.

Let me state a few hard facts and then I will let you decide who did what?

1.  Not even Sunni Zealots would take knives to the throats of Sunni Children.

            One only has to ask, what faction were the victims.. Sunni or Shia?

2.  The only way a group of ground troops can move building to building during artillery and mortar attacks is by knowing what areas are safe to move on and at what time they would be safe from shelling.

            In short, you have to know the " plan" of attack" and you have to know when the indirect fire would end or start or move.

            This leaves out the Sunni combat units and it leaves out the radical groups such as             AQI.

I'm convinced the Russians didn't think through their statement about who might have conducted this atrocity.

In my opinion, they panicked.

They heard the news of the children and simply ran to the media outlets to give a statement.

Russia and Iran may be forced to stay at Assad's side, but taking knives to children is something not even nation state politics can withstand.

Assad may have very well signed his own death warrant!

The interesting issue becomes who caries it out?

If Iran and Russia can find a happy middle ground "Puppet".. Assad is a dead man!

Russia and Iran realize this may not stop the larger issue of Sunni / Shia / confrontation, but Assad is past the point of being an asset to ether of the two nations.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90611

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=271765

CLOSER TO THE EDGE!

Two stories that paint an ever desperate picture of events in the Middle East.

As I have stated in the past, DEBKA, has a tendency to hyper inflate storylines when it comes to the issue of  Iran.

Having said that, they usually fall into the category of,  where there is smoke, there is fire.

Given the current personal relationship between Netanyahu and the President of the US, it is not out of the question this snubbing might have taken place.

If the US message trying to be relayed to Israel was one of, "we are going to met yet again.. and again.. and again",  until we get past November of 2012, then Netanyahu may not have been in the mood to listen.

If the information in the second linked story has any level of validity to it, then it's even easier to see why Israel may simply not see the logic of continuing to talk with the US about " meetings" with Iran.

There comes a point in time in every conflict where leadership makes the emotional decision to take action.

Are we closer to this point than before the Baghdad meeting?

Mostly likely yes.

As I read these two stories, what really bothered me was the insanity of the mass killing in Syria to include dozens of children.

I can just imagine the reaction to this story in Iran and Moscow.

I'm not sure how many times the world can turn it's back on Assad's actions, but this one may very well cost him more than any in the past fifteen months.

The West will not condone military actions against Assad based on this event, but the Saudi and GCC support to the FSA and "other" groups now active in Syria is going to go astronomically higher.

So why does Assad's massacre in Houla make me worry about Iran and Israel?

As I have always said; Iran will do whatever it takes to keep Syria, to include forcing Israel to attack Lebanon to distract from Assad's actions.

It's clear this event in Syria is going to have fast repercussions and Lebanon / Lebanese Hezbollah  or "events" in Bahrain are sure to follow.

 Everyone has a breaking point.. .... Iran.... the West... Saudi.... the UN....

The fact of the matter is, something is going to give...... something is going to take the whole region to the next level.

We all continue to run out of time.

http://www.debka.com/article/22032/Netanyahu-Barak-refuse-to-see-US-official-with-negative-report-on-Baghdad-talks

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90508

WHAT DOES MEXICO HAVE IN COMMON WITH THE MIDDLE EAST?

First off, you need to read the linked article before you read this post.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/24/world/americas/mexico-protests/index.html?hpt=

wo_t2

Now, the concept of Mexico possibly having the beginnings of it's own Arab Spring is not new to the Americas.

Chile has had it's "look alike" issues on it's college campuses for over a year now.

My other concern with this theory is in both cases it seems the demonstrations are limited to college campuses and college students.

Never the less, let's take a look at what we have potentially going on in Mexico... a place I keep track of on a daily basses.

Yesterday, I was reviewing an article about this same subject and reading a

few blogs about the protest against the PRI and Nieto's relationship with

the media, one that is true, and I couldn't help but remember my initial

thought when I first heard of the Arab Spring.

What if this social media driven process was to come to Mexico?

I think I sent an email to my friend Chuck, warning him how this "concept"

could come to the US and worse to a weakened country like Mexico.

For several years now, some  of us have talked about the DTO issues in

Mexico not from the perspective of drugs impact in the US and the violence

this process creates, but how Mexico's  government continues to lose the

confidence of the Mexican people.

Many have argued that DTO issue, although dramatic in its violence, has had

little " impact" on the overall "health" of Mexico.

Most who have taken this stance base it on the economic status of Mexico.

Simply put, they make the argument, "Mexico's numbers look good and

therefore the problems are minimum"!

Social fabric is held together by more than just economic numbers!

A society that cannot feel safe at home... a society that continues to lose

its confidence in its leadership is a society ripe for change.

I have long feared the overall health of Mexico was reaching a point of

danger and the DTO issue was simply one of the viruses that have sickened

the social organs of Mexico.

The corruption and exhaustion of the civilian law enforcement and Mexican

Military, is a dangerous combination when it comes to potential protest on

College Campuses and people taking to the streets.

If this article is truly pointing to a dangerous shift in Mexico, our

enemies will be sure to leverage it.

Nothing would make Iran happier than to see Mexico in crisis and a US

government distracted at its border.

Another issue to consider:

The demographics of the US and the future trends in these demographics makes

the issue of Central and South America far more important than they

currently seem.

Perception is reality, especially to the people who are scared to go to bed

at night.

Mexico could be in far more trouble than some realize or want to admit.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/24/world/americas/mexico-protests/index.html?hpt=

wo_t2

SO.. WHO IS THE TSAR REFERRING TO?

Everyone should understand the Russian viewpoint towards the Middle East is not based upon peace and tranquility.

That is not how they operate, or at least that is not how the Tsar keeps the price of oil inflated.. something the Russians need to rebuild their economy.

"Artificially aggravated"... ??????

The Saudis???? the US.... Space Aliens???

If anyone is the absolute master of " Artificially aggravating" some event.. it would be the Tsar's team!

Now, the problem with this statement  is the part about it ending very badly is absolutely  true.

Russian understands the Iranian Master Plan and how vital the Lebanese proxy support is.

If properly managed, the price of oil based on controlled Middle East tensions could keep oil prices far above where the Russians need them.

Conversely, a regional war could lead to a world wide economic crash that might last for years.

That is not how the Tsar plans to rebuild his Empire.

Controlled tension has been the plan for the Middle East for every country that makes a profit off of higher oil prices.. .yes the Saudis and the GCC are right in there with the Russians.

When Sergie Lavrov made the statement, "it could end very badly", he was most likely talking about the issue from the Russian perspective.

Oil at 115 dollars per barrel .... Good for the Tsar...

Oil at 45 dollars per barrel.. Bad for the Tsar and mad Tsar's are dangerous Tsars!

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/41159-lavrov-warns-of-bad-end-if-syria-up