CLOSER TO THE EDGE!

Two stories that paint an ever desperate picture of events in the Middle East.

As I have stated in the past, DEBKA, has a tendency to hyper inflate storylines when it comes to the issue of  Iran.

Having said that, they usually fall into the category of,  where there is smoke, there is fire.

Given the current personal relationship between Netanyahu and the President of the US, it is not out of the question this snubbing might have taken place.

If the US message trying to be relayed to Israel was one of, "we are going to met yet again.. and again.. and again",  until we get past November of 2012, then Netanyahu may not have been in the mood to listen.

If the information in the second linked story has any level of validity to it, then it's even easier to see why Israel may simply not see the logic of continuing to talk with the US about " meetings" with Iran.

There comes a point in time in every conflict where leadership makes the emotional decision to take action.

Are we closer to this point than before the Baghdad meeting?

Mostly likely yes.

As I read these two stories, what really bothered me was the insanity of the mass killing in Syria to include dozens of children.

I can just imagine the reaction to this story in Iran and Moscow.

I'm not sure how many times the world can turn it's back on Assad's actions, but this one may very well cost him more than any in the past fifteen months.

The West will not condone military actions against Assad based on this event, but the Saudi and GCC support to the FSA and "other" groups now active in Syria is going to go astronomically higher.

So why does Assad's massacre in Houla make me worry about Iran and Israel?

As I have always said; Iran will do whatever it takes to keep Syria, to include forcing Israel to attack Lebanon to distract from Assad's actions.

It's clear this event in Syria is going to have fast repercussions and Lebanon / Lebanese Hezbollah  or "events" in Bahrain are sure to follow.

 Everyone has a breaking point.. .... Iran.... the West... Saudi.... the UN....

The fact of the matter is, something is going to give...... something is going to take the whole region to the next level.

We all continue to run out of time.

http://www.debka.com/article/22032/Netanyahu-Barak-refuse-to-see-US-official-with-negative-report-on-Baghdad-talks

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=90508

WHAT DOES MEXICO HAVE IN COMMON WITH THE MIDDLE EAST?

First off, you need to read the linked article before you read this post.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/24/world/americas/mexico-protests/index.html?hpt=

wo_t2

Now, the concept of Mexico possibly having the beginnings of it's own Arab Spring is not new to the Americas.

Chile has had it's "look alike" issues on it's college campuses for over a year now.

My other concern with this theory is in both cases it seems the demonstrations are limited to college campuses and college students.

Never the less, let's take a look at what we have potentially going on in Mexico... a place I keep track of on a daily basses.

Yesterday, I was reviewing an article about this same subject and reading a

few blogs about the protest against the PRI and Nieto's relationship with

the media, one that is true, and I couldn't help but remember my initial

thought when I first heard of the Arab Spring.

What if this social media driven process was to come to Mexico?

I think I sent an email to my friend Chuck, warning him how this "concept"

could come to the US and worse to a weakened country like Mexico.

For several years now, some  of us have talked about the DTO issues in

Mexico not from the perspective of drugs impact in the US and the violence

this process creates, but how Mexico's  government continues to lose the

confidence of the Mexican people.

Many have argued that DTO issue, although dramatic in its violence, has had

little " impact" on the overall "health" of Mexico.

Most who have taken this stance base it on the economic status of Mexico.

Simply put, they make the argument, "Mexico's numbers look good and

therefore the problems are minimum"!

Social fabric is held together by more than just economic numbers!

A society that cannot feel safe at home... a society that continues to lose

its confidence in its leadership is a society ripe for change.

I have long feared the overall health of Mexico was reaching a point of

danger and the DTO issue was simply one of the viruses that have sickened

the social organs of Mexico.

The corruption and exhaustion of the civilian law enforcement and Mexican

Military, is a dangerous combination when it comes to potential protest on

College Campuses and people taking to the streets.

If this article is truly pointing to a dangerous shift in Mexico, our

enemies will be sure to leverage it.

Nothing would make Iran happier than to see Mexico in crisis and a US

government distracted at its border.

Another issue to consider:

The demographics of the US and the future trends in these demographics makes

the issue of Central and South America far more important than they

currently seem.

Perception is reality, especially to the people who are scared to go to bed

at night.

Mexico could be in far more trouble than some realize or want to admit.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/24/world/americas/mexico-protests/index.html?hpt=

wo_t2

SO.. WHO IS THE TSAR REFERRING TO?

Everyone should understand the Russian viewpoint towards the Middle East is not based upon peace and tranquility.

That is not how they operate, or at least that is not how the Tsar keeps the price of oil inflated.. something the Russians need to rebuild their economy.

"Artificially aggravated"... ??????

The Saudis???? the US.... Space Aliens???

If anyone is the absolute master of " Artificially aggravating" some event.. it would be the Tsar's team!

Now, the problem with this statement  is the part about it ending very badly is absolutely  true.

Russian understands the Iranian Master Plan and how vital the Lebanese proxy support is.

If properly managed, the price of oil based on controlled Middle East tensions could keep oil prices far above where the Russians need them.

Conversely, a regional war could lead to a world wide economic crash that might last for years.

That is not how the Tsar plans to rebuild his Empire.

Controlled tension has been the plan for the Middle East for every country that makes a profit off of higher oil prices.. .yes the Saudis and the GCC are right in there with the Russians.

When Sergie Lavrov made the statement, "it could end very badly", he was most likely talking about the issue from the Russian perspective.

Oil at 115 dollars per barrel .... Good for the Tsar...

Oil at 45 dollars per barrel.. Bad for the Tsar and mad Tsar's are dangerous Tsars!

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/41159-lavrov-warns-of-bad-end-if-syria-up

LEBANON.. A FIRE THAT IS GETTING HARD TO PUT OUT!

Earlier in the day, the hope of keeping a lid on Lebanon gained some momentum when Shadi Al-Mawlawi was released on bond by the Lebanese government.

As is almost always the case in the Middle East, hope was short lived.

The kidnapping of the 13 Shia pilgrims, if that is what they were, has dumped gasoline back onto the fire of the Lebanese crisis.

The fact the reactions to this event took place all the way back in Beirut seems odd, except for  the fact that is where the families of the kidnapped victims live.

What I found unusual was how un prepared the Lebanese government was for this reaction.    

Now, I will grant you it's a lot easier to walk out into the street, when you are unemployed and bored to tears, as soon as your cell phone rings with the news family members have been abducted, than it is to officially respond to the neighborhood.

Having said that, it is not mystery to the Lebanese leadership what neighborhoods run the risk of having " problems"!

It is no mystery Lebanon's leadership has been anticipating trouble, especially after the events of the past two weeks.

What I did find interesting was how fast Hibollah's leadership, Nasrallah, took to the airwaves to attempt to keep the situation as calm as possible.

I've argued with some of my counterparts for several days over the insane concept that Iran or Hizbollah is attempting to bring a crisis to Lebanon to make them pay for the Sunni support coming from the Lebanese sympathizers. 

It is not what Iran or Hizbollah wants and Nasrallah's actions validates my theory.

One thing is for certain; Lebanon is now front and center for potential violence and everyone is beginning to understand how dangerous that truly is.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18169174

LEBANON MOVES CLOSER TO THE EDGE.

Several times in the past few months I have commented on the danger of Lebanon slipping into crisis.

As a matter of fact, it was well over a year ago when I talked about the risk the STL announcement could bring to Lebanon.

It's not worth repeating what happened there in the past few days, but it is very important to understand why it happened and what it could lead to.

First the Why:

Why would a Lebanese military checkpoint fire on and kill a Sunni cleric knowing all to well the tensions that hung over the entire country?

Well, it hard to tell someone is a Sunni cleric if they are in a vehicle that is not stopping at a checkpoint... oh ya.. .did anyone notice the vehicle Alawite was in? A Ranger Rover??? 

Being a Sunni cleric must pay well!!!!

So, it could be a under trained, uneducated conscript in the Lebanese military that was assigned to Checkpoint duty had all the risk in the world of doing something as disastrous as shooting a Sunni cleric... oh and add.. poorly supervised to the list of screw ups!!

Here is an additional question I've not heard an excuse for just yet.. but I bet one is out there already....

Why did the cleric and his bodyguard run the checkpoint?

In the Middle East.. running a checkpoint is the US version of " Death by Cop".... a phenomenon where someone deliberately sets themselves up to be killed by the Police.

I'm not suggesting, or perhaps I'm not, this cleric would do something as bold as deliberately getting himself, "martyred " for the sake of sparking the sectarian flames in Lebanon, but you have to ask, why?

For the sake of time, let's move on and cover the second part of this topic.

What does it mean to Lebanon?

I'm not convinced this is the proverbial " straw that broke the Camel's back"... silly cliché I know, for an event in the Middle East, but I had to use it.

The event, if properly managed, may not ignite the flames of a crisis in Lebanon, but notice I said " if properly managed". 

What I do know is this was not the sanctioned act of Hizbollah or Iran or Syria.

Lebanon falling into a full blown crisis is more than Iran can stand right about now.

As I said a few days ago, Iran needs Lebanon and Hizbollah for one thing and one thing only... to place a Proxy War between Iran and Israel.

An internal conflict based on a non Israeli threat would be absolutely disastrous for Iran.

Does anyone stand to gain from this senseless killing?

Yep.. You may have guessed it...... The Muslim Brotherhood.

The question becomes, is the timing right?

Is this what the MB wants right now?

If not, then the whole thing was an idiotic blunder and it might not ignite Lebanon into a full crisis.. although many conflicts have started by accident.

Are the Sunni ready for additional conflict in Lebanon?

Is Lebanon going to be more than just a launching board for operations in Syria?

If the answer becomes yes, then look for Iran to react and react in a huge way.

If anyone has been looking for a " Red Line" in the Middle East than this would be it!

Iran will not stand by and watch Lebanon fall into full Sunni control as they march on Damascus.

If Iran was going to start a proxy war in the Middle East, this scenario would speed up the Iranian timeline dramatically.

The hint of this happening is Hezbollah.

If Hezbollah attacks Jewish targets in the world and Israel knows it was LH, then we will all have our answer on what Iran is willing to do to prevent the fall of Assad and Lebanon.

Simply put; if Lebanon begins to fall into crisis, look for LH to go into action and the whole region will be next.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/05/20125212324201596.html

"UNITY GOVERNMENT FOR THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE!! LMAO!!!

Now, I know LMAO, is not a very professional way to post an update on a serous topic such as the Palestinian issue, but really.. yet another, "we swear to meet and talk about it" statement?

If you think the fist story, linked below, has any chance of becoming an actual event, you only need to read the second link from about four days ago.

Hamas and Fatah have what really amounts to a " blood Feud" going on and agreeing to additional " talks" is nothing more than trying to appease  the Muslim Brotherhood as they demand the two stop embarrassing the Palestinian Cause.

But, as is always the case with Blood Feuds in the Middle East, nether side can "let it go"!

You see... It's not about who is right or who is wrong for the Palestinian people; what  they want are jobs, and to feel happy and safe... just like the rest of the word.

To the ego maniacs in Hamas and Fatah, it's about power....money... control... and worst of all... EGO!!!

So many Asses, but only one fits in the chair at a time!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=270768

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18097303

WHO'S IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT???

A lot of "Smoke and Mirrors" going on here.

Is it possible the West is concerned arms flowing to the Syrian Rebels  /

Resistance Fighters / take your pick /  could end up in the hands of pro

radical Islamic forces?

Yes!!

Is it possible these arms movements are being supported by countries such as

Saudi and the GCC?

Yes!

Would this, once again, place the goals of the West / US / in conflict with

the desires of Saudi and other GCC members?

Yes!

Is it possible the Lebanese government is trying to take some of the heat

off of them for the arrest of  Al-Mawlawi, a Sunni leader, by pointing the

finger at the US?

Yes!

Would Hezbollah deliberately inflame Tripoli in order to " take the pressure

off of Syria"?

NO!!

Would Iran think inflaming Lebanon to distract the world from the Syrian

issue would be a sound plan?

NO!!

So, what is going on in Lebanon?

A Civil War, or a version of one, is taking place in Syria and Lebanon, who

is already a house divided, is on the border of that Civil War.

Iran doesn't want a "proxy war" in Lebanon unless it's a conflict with

Israel.

Wasting Hezbollah and Lebanon battlefields on anything other than war with

Israel would be a huge mistake for Iran.

It's not Iran / the Persians / who are moving to turn Lebanon into a "proxy

war".

It's the Sunni..... The Muslim Brotherhood!!

Lebanon is the tactical jump point for operations in Syria.

As the final push to win over Syria comes, Lebanon will move back into Sunni

control.. and that is the Master Plan.

Iran knows this.

We all know this... or we should!

Ok, the million dollar question!!!

Will Pro Qaida forces begin to take action in Lebanon?

YES!!

Look for the IED campaign in Tripoli soon!!!

http://www.lebanonews.net/mainhl.asp?hlid=8935