ASSASSINS IN LEBANON.. A FOLLOW UP REVIEW.

A very good friend and I have been reading and talking about this botched

assassination attempt and how it could impact the region.

The big picture issue continues to be the destabilization of Lebanon at a

time when the region cannot afford one more ounce of trouble.

Simply put, the Syrian fingerprints on this attempt are there.

Iranian fingerprints are right next to the Syrian prints.

The real concern over this attempt is the theory that Iran is more and more

worried the Sunni faction in Lebanon may take advantage of the Syrian crisis

to regain power in Lebanon... As if the STL /UN / court case was not

worrying them enough..

Showing the Christians, who lean natural to pro Shia  / Hezbollah / that

they are in danger is a ploy to place them back in the Sunni camp thus

weakening the current, pro- Iranian  / Syrian / government.

Short answer; the March 14th movement making a bid to get the Christians

back on their side.

Attempting to assassinate someone like Geagea is a bold and desperate move.

As a reminder; Iran, as they face a potential conflict with Israel, cannot

accept a loss of Hezbollah operations in Lebanon.

Iran cannot accept the fall of Assad in Syria for the same reason.

Anyone who believes Iran's paranoia is based solely on its nuclear program

doesn't understand what is taking place in the region.

Geagea Warns March 14 in Eye of the Storm

 

12 April 2012

Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea told March 14 opposition officials that

Christians in Lebanon would have suffered from the consequences of his

assassination if snipers succeeded in killing him.

Al-Liwaa daily on Thursday quoted Geagea as saying in his address to the

officials during their large-scale meeting at his residence in Maarab that

"March 14 is in the eye of the storm." "We should all be aware of that and

act in this regard," he said. The LF chief also put his assassination

attempt within the framework of the "big confrontation taking place in the

region."

Had the snipers shot him, the incident "would have had dangerous

repercussions on the Christian presence in Lebanon." "The battle that the

Syrian regime and its allies are fighting is a final battle of either

killing or be killed," the sources of the conferees quoted Geagea as saying.

The LF chief urged March 14 to find serious and thoughtful ways to confront

the battle that could last for a couple of months or a year or two, the

sources told al-Liwaa.

LF MP Antoine Zahra also told Voice of Lebanon radio (93.3) that "the

government's different sides" have taken the decision to resume the attacks

on Lebanese opposition personalities. The March 14 coalition said following

its Maarab meeting on Wednesday that the government should repeal a decision

preventing the Internal Security Forces from accessing what is known as the

telecom data which it believes would help in the probe of Geagea's attempted

murder. According to al-Liwaa, the statement was drafted by a committee that

included MPs George Adwan and Ammar Houry, former lawmaker Elias Atallah and

Marwan Saqr from the Democratic Renewal Movement of ex-MP Nassib Lahoud, who

died in February.

The movement returned to its membership in the March 14 forces, al-Liwaa

said. The Phalange party was also present to throw his support behind Geagea

although it wasn't participating in the meetings of the March 14

general-secretariat. The party's leader Amin Gemayel and his son MP Sami

Gemayel did not attend the gathering but lawmaker Elie Marouni was present.

Meanwhile, informed sources said that investigators have found new evidence

in their probe into Geagea's assassination attempt. They are carrying out

tests on pieces of cloths and an empty bottle found in the vicinity of the

area where snipers shot at Geagea as he was walking in the garden of his

fortified residence. Investigators are also probing the movement of suspects

from and to the area where the snipers were located, the sources told

al-Liwaa

APRIL 10TH PASSES.... NOW WHAT???

Anyone that was holding their breath for Assad to stop killing his own people as he agreed to is simply out of touch with reality.

All day long today, the real question remained, " now what"?

Does the situation get worse and if so how?

I can't look into a crystal ball and forecast the next move over Syria, but I can point out an issue that needs to be addressed.

For weeks now, many of the media " experts" have made reference to Syria's " key Ally" Russia!!

Time and time again the argument has been made, if Russia turns it's back on Assad, his days are numbered.

Again and again..... the storyline continued to be based on Russia being the backbone of Assad.

It's simply not true!

When you say Russia, you need to think Putin and when you say Putin, you need to be thinking about Russia not Syria.

Simply put, Russia's support for Assad is based on what Putin thinks he and Russia.. although I am convinced he truly believes he is Russia...

If you look at my past post, you will see where I have addressed the issue of Putin's / Russia plans for Syria and Assad.

Putin will leave Assad to the wolves the second it is to his advantage to do so!

He is what a man like Putin understands!

The longer he holds out.. and the longer the West is desperate for the Syrian issue to deescalate... the higher the demands Putin can make.

If you follow my logic, then you have to ask yourself, what does Putin really want and who does he want it from?

If there is a price for Russia's / Putin's / change of heart, then what is it?

Oil!!

I've said it before and I will say it again..

It's oil....

There are pipelines and oil deals that Putin supports from the area and there are pipelines and oil deals in the area that he doesn't support.

Turkey's pipeline projects do not fit into Putin's Master Plan or not as they currently are executing.

Turkey knows this all too well and so does anyone in the oil industry.

Putin  is not supporting Assad just because he wishes to poke the West in the eye.

He doesn't have time for mindless / endless political games.

He is a man on a mission to rebuild the Russian Empire and the Tzar is an impatient individual.

Ok, what does this mean?

The world needs Russia to back away from Assad.

The world knows the oil issue.

So.... ask yourself... what deals can be offered to Putin and who can offer them?

Problem... when you offer things.. someone else usually comes up on the short side of the deal.

Who is that going to be?

Turkey?

Saudi?

In the meantime, the killing will go on and unfortunately  might even get worse.

If it does, the pressure to come to terms with the Tzar of Russia will only grow and trust me when I tell you he knows this.

Is Russian worried about the court of World opinion?

Hell no!!! when have the ever worried about public opinion?

Here comes the real problem.

I am very confident Russia / The Tzar / has underestimated the Iranian resolve in the Syrian equation.

The problem with looking down your nose at someone... as the Russian do with Iran.. is you tend to underestimate their resolve.

Russia's support to Assad is about Russia  and not the region and surly not about looking like a world leader.

Underestimating Iran, in my opinion, is exactly what the Russians have done!

As soon as Russia comes to understand this, the price for support may change.

Yes... Syria remains the most complicated issue for the modern world to deal with.

The North Koreans are about to shift the world's attention off of Syria for several days if not more.

That will give Assad ample time to really up the tally on bodies littering the streets of his own country.

It's a complicated world and injustice is a common theme!

Let's see what the next move is.. but it better happen before North Korea steals the spotlight.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88375

SYRIAN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD.. WE HAVE HEARD THIS STORY BEFORE!

Al-Shaqfa is an interesting individual and one we will hear more out of as

time goes on.

The Brotherhood's plan for Syria is not that much different from the plan

they executed in Egypt.

Let the youth spill the blood, thus getting Assad to overreact and bring

about his downfall.

After that is said and done, take over the movement, but use just the right

words to keep a war weary west from opposing their message.

Send a few "friendly signals" and talk the good talk...

When you read what Al Shaqfa had to say back in January of this year, you

might come to the conclusion the SMB was simply concerned for the people of

Syria and have no intention of ruling the country.

http://www.ikhwanweb.com/article.php?id=27887

As the MB has discovered, they need to tell the story calmly, simply and

don't get into a rush.

So, what is wrong with the SMB Master Plan?

Iran!!!

Does Iran sit back and allow the MB / Sunni / to eventually rule Syria?

Can they afford to?

Can they afford to fight a war to keep control of Syria?

Can they afford to lose Syria if they have a coming war with Israel?

I would have to believe the SMB has some grand plan for pacifying the

Iranians, at least in the short term!

Bringing some version of the Arab Spring to Iranian soil is probably one of

the MB long term goals.

How does the SMB deal with the Iranian issue as they seek to take control of

Syria?

It has been said time and time again... Syria is not Egypt.. Tunisia or

Libya!!

Iran will stand it's ground on the issue of Syria, unless it finds a way to

continue to operate from there even at a reduced capability.

If the SMB can find this " balance point" then Assad may go the way of

Mubarak.

One thing is for certain.... the Muslim Brotherhood is the future power

broker in the Middle East and the rest of the world needs to figure out how

to deal with that fact.

The wrong move on the Syrian issue and the region goes to war, a war the

Israelis will not settle for a half victory on.

War with Iran means asymmetric war for the West...  far different than what has been taking place for the past ten years.

The age old saying will still hold true, " don't fight the next war based on

the last war"!!!

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88171

WE ARE THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND WE ARE HERE TO HELP!

When I read this article, I couldn't help but feel sorry for the youth of Egypt.

They are the ones that really brought about change in Egypt and they are the ones that paid the price with their own blood to live a free life.

Now, they are the ones that have been overcome by the slow, methodical, relentless mechine called the Muslim Brotherhood.

It was the Brotherhoods plan from day one... .let the youth do the bleeding and then step in and steal the victory!

As I read Sondos Asem's comments, I felt just as sorry for her as I did for all the kids she represents.

The only thing this poor girl is missing are the strings hanging from her shoulders and head!

As an educated young women, she knows deep in her heart the MB is playing her as a front-man or in her case a front-woman.

After realizing this story was more about the danger of what this farce may mean to those who swallow the story, I really began to worry about the age old saying, " the enemy of my enemy is my friend"!

What groups in the US will align themselves with this so called new Muslim Brotherhood?

What organizations will take advantage of a perhaps sincere section of the MB?

An optimist would love to believe this "new MB" is truly the beginning of an acceptable Islamic movement... ya I know. we already have one in the form of Saudi.. but we all know Saudi could dance to the fiddle of the Devil himself as long as they continue to pump the oil.

So, the Muslim Brotherhood comes to court the US?

Where this heads is going to be very interesting to watch...

Does it become an issue before the November elections? perhaps!!!

I know this.. when young Asem goes to bed at night... she wonders how long the MB will really let her walk out in front of the movement!!!

Good luck young lady... you are about to grow up in a real fast moving world!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/03/world/analysis-muslim-brotherhood/index.html?iref=allsearch

SUSPICION... THE OTTOMAN... PERSIAN RELATIONSHIP!

So, Mohsen Rezaie makes a public statement that Turkey has not fulfilled some of the "agreements" for the upcoming Iranian nuclear program talks?

I have to wonder what those " agreements" might be, but more importantly, I really have to question if Iran is not simply doing what they always do... attempt to change the rules at the last minute?

Or, is it really an issue of trust between the Iranians and the Turks?

If not trust, then how about the classic Middle Eastern issue of one-upmanship?

In these difficult times for Iran, perhaps giving Turkey too much credit is simply not a wise thing to do!

The only things that rises before the Sun in the Middle East are the egos!!

Could it be that Iran simply doesn't want the Ottomans, who seem to have everything going their war right now, to take all the credit for the next round of worthless talks?

See... Turkey doesn't really care if any progress is made with these talks.

They get the credit for hosting the event and that keeps Turkey on the FrontPage!

Remember, it was Turkey's idea to host the talks... not Iran's!!

We also can't rule out Rezaie's ego!!!

He has been a player in Iran for a long time and it's well known he is no friend of Ahmadinejad.

The fact that other influential members of Iran's government made well timed comments leads me to believe the ego battle is more at the Nation State level.

So, whatever is going on here is worthy of paying attention to.

The Ottoman... Erdogan is not short on ego himself and I would be some answer to these comments will be coming soon.

The facts seem to be clear if you keep the big picture simple....

The Ottomans and the Persians continue to grind on each other and that will only create more heat!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=264609

MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD FOR PRESIDENT??? GO FIGURE!!!

So, the MB changes their mind on running a candidate for President?

I'm shocked!

This is the same MB / FJP / that swore they would not run too many candidates for the parliament in order to keep from obtaining a majority.

This is the same MB that turned its back on one of its members, Dr Al-Fetouh, because he wanted to run for president... perhaps his liberal viewpoints got in the way of the MB's real goals.

Some of the people talking about this event are correct when they say the danger comes from the FJP splitting the votes too much.

Between Amr Moussa and Al-Shater, the real hardliners may win the day... the An-Nour party... Hazem Islamiel!!

Egypt looks to be heading back into a political and social mud hole.

The problem is, Syria and Iran are now the topics of the day and most of the world is not going to focus on Egypt again without a huge violent event.

Nobody understands this more than the MB and this is exactly why they took this action now.

When Egypt first started to falter, I posted my belief the MB would run the country after it was all said and done.

Meanwhile, we continue to see a growing  viewpoint in this country that is based upon "accepting" a moderate, more compassionate, more understanding Islamic movement with the Egyptian MB being the shining example.

What the MB has begun to master is the art of " going slow"!

Fast.. Loud.. Violent events create panic.. .and reaction... counter reaction.

These are the actions of young, visionary.. Delusional..  Dumb College kids and those with no real " plan".

The is not how the MB operates.

The idea of letting the youth start the movement, let them take the heat on the streets of Egypt, bring down the government and then slowly shape the future to meet the vision of the Brotherhood... that is the vision.

The world is distracted and the MB plan continues to move on.

Al-Shater has a "relationship" with the Egyptian military and the MB knows it.

When does the MB decide to betray that relationship?

Let the Egyptian military continue to have it's economic perks, and they will continue to turn a blind eye.

My bet is, this plan is going to work!!!!

But........ Let's see who tries to "interfere"?

I have my opinions!!  

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/04/20124214426815765.html

CAN PARANOIA BRING DOWN THE AL-ASSAD REGIME?

 I was reading this story on CNN today and I found it interesting the reported conflict between Asef, the brother-in-law, and Maher, the Younger, meaner, brother of Bashar.

As I was digesting   what that might mean, when  I then read the part about the strained relationship between Asma, The Syrian First Lady and the Sister in-law, Bushra.

Ok, all the makings of the typical dysfunctional elitist, rich, family.

Just the kind of internal weakness needed to start the fire from within.

This cannot be news to those that know Syria and it's surly not news to the people trying to hold the Al Assad clan together... Iran... The Sunni Business class that refuses  to turn on him....  

Paranoia!!!

I've talked about the danger of such a sickness for the entire region, but paranoia just maybe the key to bringing down the Syrian government.... it wouldn't be the first time it's happened.

In the Middle East.. .blood feuds ... and family feuds run long and deep!!!

Could Asef and Maher be leveraged.... to pull down the empire?

Is someone already taking this track?.. Hmmm.. now who could pull such a stunt off???

If the plan was to get the inner circle under pressure, then why not add a few extra levels of stress?

Many years ago, in one of my former lives... I once convinced a real bad-guy.. that another bad-guy, who he trusted, was giving him up and it seemed both where too dumb to figure it out.

The damage was done... the trust was gone.. and the end result was exactly what I was looking for!

The Rumor Game:

Any Street Cop worth their weight in donuts will tell you the damage you can do to an "outfit" by utilizing the " Rumor Game"!

Just think what rumors could do to a whole group of paranoid elitist?

Rumor: Maher is out to strike a deal with Iran and give up his Brother..

Rumor: Bushra and her husband are out to blame Maher for everything and strike a deal to leave with her Brother's family to a neutral country.

Rumor:  Iran is looking to replace Al - Assad with someone the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood would support but would still work with Iran behind the scenes.. more than a rumor!!!!

Rumor: key Syrian Generals are quietly talking to the FSA and SNC to turn over their forces for amnesty!!!

Ok, everyone gets it..

The Rumor Game could be the most powerful weapon in the Syrian conflict right now..

Lets see who knows how to play the game!!!!

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/26/world/meast/assad-family/index.html