ONCE AGAIN THE TOPIC OF LEBANON, SYRIA AND IRAN!!

Over the past ten months, I have commented on the complex relationship between the events in Syria and the future impact on Lebanon.

The attached article is a fair assessment of what Lebanon means not only to Syria, but to the region as well.

To reiterate what my theory on what Lebanon means to Syria, we must once again look at Iran.

As I have said over and over and over... Iran cannot continue on it's current path without the leverage of Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and what faction of Hamas that is not returning to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Having said that, with each passing day, things change to include the attitudes of Nation States such as Russia and China.

The importance of Syria to Russia is not the same as the importance of Syria to Iran.

The same holds true for China and in China's case, it's far easier to see a future where China turns on Syria for the sake of future oil contracts from the region.

So, what does that have to do with current events in Lebanon?

Again, I will make the point of Iran's needs!!!!

Iran needs the ability to launch a proxy conflict with Israel prior to trying to adsorb an attack from Israel.

If Iran needs Lebanon to become yet another battleground, then my theory is it will happen!

If Iran needs to hold onto Syria at all cost, and they do, then making Lebanon a battlefield is again the option.

Ok, now everyone in Lebanon knows this and the tension can only be getting worse by the day.

Picking sides in Lebanon was an issue long before the events in Syria began to boil and old memories of Syrian occupation still run deep.

I use to love to ask the Saudi's, " what is the name of the Syrian Ambassador to Lebanon"?

If you read through my post, you will see this is not the first time I have had this conversation about events in Lebanon, but it's worth repeating because each day is a new day and each new day could be the day the conflict switches to Lebanon.

My theory remains, if Iran feels Israel is about to take action, it will launch the Lebanon, Gaza option and force Israel to execute a three front war.

How they might pull this off is a important topic and one I will dive into the next time I post.

My theory is I better do so quick or it might be a historical posting and not a prediction.

 http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2012/1089/re5.htm

A CEASE-FIRE THAT MAY NOT HOLD!

Two days ago, I spoke of the unrealistic concept called " compromise".

This is the world that is usually used when nations or groups are trying to develop a

 " Cease-Fire"!

You need a " compromise" in order to achieve a " Cease-Fire".

The problem is, a Cease-Fire is often utilized as a Re-supply or Reorganization for follow on actions.

In this most recent event coming from Gaza, it is hard to tell if this utilization concept is being utilized or not, but we may soon see.

The reality of how many so called splinter groups are in Gaza is not a recognized excuse for why the Cease-Fire may not hold.

These so called "splinter groups" are still armed by Iran and even if they are not dirrectly controlled by Iran, it's crazy to think for a single second they are not given a green light to continue operations.

So, if someone wants to tell the Israelis, as I am sure Hamas and Egypt are trying to, these "splinter groups" cannot be controlled.... well... we all know by now what Israel's reaction will be.

As I said two days ago, if this action is truly a stepping stone to Iran turning up the heat, then the Israeli reaction will be based upon the damage the continue attacks create.

I found two other events from today interesting and worrisome.

One was the capture of yet another Terror Team supported by Iran, this time in Azerbaijan.  http://foxnewsinsider.com/2012/03/14/22-arrested-in-azerbaijan-plot-against-u-s-and-israeli-embassies/

The pattern of Iranian backed teams is at a tempo unlike anything the world has seen from Iran or Hezbollah. 

It is more and more obvious to me the mission behind these teams, world wide, is to goat Israel into taking action.

Side note; I still wonder if Iran really feels they are ready for what that "action" may become?

The second was the reported meeting between Hamas and Hezbollah.

It's reported the meeting was to discus Syria, Gaza and Iran.

I'm not sure that was the real purpose behind this meeting, if it did take place.

My hunch is Hezbollah has been tasked to try and keep Hamas in the Iranian camp and this meeting was an attempt to keep the unnatural alliance.

The danger comes from Israel interpretation of this meeting taking place at a time when rockets and missiles continue to come out of Gaza.

Remember my theory of unintended consequences when extremely paranoid nations are at the edge of conflict.  http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=261818

Ok, here is my prediction and it has not changed for several months now.

If Israel suffers a tragic loss of life attack at the hands of Hezbollah or Hamas "splinter groups", then the fuse will quickly burn towards a Regional War...

Remember, Israel is finished with 2006, 2008 type of conflicts!!!!

I just hope Iran realizes this.

  http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=261905

BATTLE LINES FOR THE MIDDLE EAST... HAVE THEY BEEN DRAWN?

Two days ago, Kofi Annan commented that achieving a settlement in Syria would be " difficult".

Perhaps he should have spoke the truth and used the word, "Impossible"!

Peace may come to Syria and even the Middle East.. Inshallah... but the "Settlement" seems to have no meaning in the region.

When " Settlement" is achieved, it is historically short-lived... short in relative terms for a region with nearly five thousand years of history. 

So, maybe it's time to stop to think about where this event in Syria is leading?

Perhaps it's time to ponder what the Iranian nuclear program really means to the rest of the world?

Should we also consider the Tsar of Russia and his drive to corner the world oil market, at least the markets near him and the Stans/ Middle East are in what he considers his "sphere of influence".

And last but not least.. should we entertain the concept of a Muslim Faith Civil War... Sunni / Shia??

Now, each of these issues has it's own set of champions... leaders and followers who are convinced their issue is top priority  for the region.

Each on it's own merit requires  some level of attention, but none on it's own sets the course for the rest of the world!

It's only once they  all are  applied in a single formulary, does an event that has the rest of the world in jeopardy,  become a true risk.

The words have already been spoken, but the Middle East has truly become the " Perfect Stormm"..

The question becomes.... does it hit the city or does it skirt the countryside?

Do the events that could take place in the Middle East lead to a collapsed world economy.. based on the disruption of oil?

Can a region that has biblical support, become the cataclysmic trigger to a world changed forever?

Can nations that today do not intend to war with each other stumble into a war that even if short-lived, leads to economic disaster.

History is a wise Teacher to those that listen..

Months ago I spoke of the Excuse the Assignation of Arch Duke Ferdinand brought about.... Thus the History!!!

As we sit tonight at look at the travesties of Homs. and Syria.. as we listen to Israel warn the world they are close to doing the unthinkable.... what are the world's options?

A regional war must be avoided.. everyone agrees..

How to avoid a regional war.... That is a far more difficult issue.

More issues are coming unraveled than are being pieced together..

We are running out of fingers and the cracks grow larger in the dam. 

Smart people cannot afford to rest... people who are willing to listen and trust must not be allowed to step away from the table.

All options... must be reviewed.

Compromise.. the key to finally finding a " Settlement" must be the goal.

The problem will be.. "compromise" and Settlement" have a five thousand year history of being short-lived.  

The next word all parties will be forced to the table over is, " Sacrifice".. the word that usually shows up after the dead are counted. 

  

WHAT AIR OPTIONS DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD REALLY HAVE?

I promised a friend I would readdress the issue of Air Operations against the killing machine taking place in Syria.

I will keep this as simplistic as I can so those that read it can see what the options are compared to the risk, and to be honest, the risk are far greater than the options.

When I am finished, I will give one glimmer of hope, but it just may be that one glimmer that allows the rest of the world to act.

Ok, here is the down and dirty.

If you want to send the right message to Russia, Iran and the Eye Doctor and his Brother, the one really calling the shots, then you strike targets that are supporting the killing machine that is surrounding the cities.

Strike the supply routes, strike the main roadways the Syrian Army is using to move support to the North.  Cover them in cluster bombs.

Be ready for the Syrian news showing innocent people being killed by these attacks.

Have the briefing ready to go that shows what was used and where it was used and do so before the Syrian press get the false stories out.

Get this information out to the UN as soon as possible or even tell them it's going to take place just prior to the attack, like maybe 20 min prior.

Make the troops manning the artillery and the tanks realize the retreat will cost them their lives, thus putting the pressure on them to surrenders or just walk away from the equipment, much like the Iraqi soldiers did in Desert Storm!.

Conduct these strikes with weapons platforms that can penetrate the Syrian Air Defense Systems such as cruse missiles and such.

Avoid manned aircraft platforms with the exception of standoff options such as B52s and B2s.

Avoid destroying the Syrian Air Defense system for that would simply drive up their fear of being unable to defend the nation.

What I am talking about here is a large, fast, quick, one time strike.

A message would be sent...

"Shock and Awe" without six months of planning... simply not needed now days..

Strike the ability to continue the assault on Homs or another city.... not all at once.

Saving every city is simply too complicated and a step too far.

Now, the point of this type of attack is not to show Al Assad what can happen to him.

The point is to show his military leaders what awaits them.

After a few days of nothing but words from the Russians and the Iranians.. the Syrian Military Commanders will have to make a choice; Stay with Al Asssad and destroy Syrians' ability to defend the country or turn on him and negotiate.

Our trick will be to not do something as asinine as we did in Iraq; don't toss out the whole military leadership and leave the country to idiots like we did we with Debathificatoin in Iraq.

Tell the FSA and the SNC that some of the leadership must stay or the support is off.

How bad to they want the killing to stop?

Nobody in this world gets everything their way every time they want it.

Compromise is a word they must understand or they will continue to be slaughtered.

Here comes the dangerous part!!!

If Iran chose to fight it's coming battle with Israel and the US in Syria and not in Iran and not over their nuclear program, then they will not stand by why the rest of the Worlds far more advanced military machine devastates the front line units of Syria.

Russia is not going to fight a 'proxy" war with the rest of the world, but the Iranian event would give Putin exactly what he desires... 150.. 200 per barrel oil and the chance to be the " peace maker"..

Can the world strike the Syrian killing machine without the risk of immediate losses?

yes..

Can the word do so without driving the Middle East into a Regional war?

Maybe?

Ok. in closing... here is the one hint of optimism I alluded to in the beginning!!

Iranian military commanders are loyal followers of the regime, but the rank and file are young... and they have dreams of a world as they see it, not as the "old men" see it.

If Iran is pushed to the brink of a war and the youth of the military truly are lead to believe they are never going to see a normal life after that war, will they follow?

Are they devout nationalist??

Are they all fanatical Fundamentalist?

Or, are they mostly young and full of life!!

I honestly don't know,  but it may be the only saving grace we can count on.

The whole area is simply boiling!!!! 

ESCALATION OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?

By now, nearly everyone realizes the Middle East is far from, "normal", with normal being periods of violence, separated by periods of harsh words. followed up by meaningless meetings... then back to periods of violence.

It's seems to be a timeless metaphor  when we hear, ' The Middle East is a Tinderbox'!!!

These are usually the overexerted words pouring out of the mouths of some "talking head"  looking for  a paycheck from one of the news programs.

Unfortunately, after years and years of hearing this redundant comment, it's probably truer than it has ever been.

Time and time again, I have talked about the danger of Iran picking a fight to keep the devastating loss of Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah from taking place.

In the past few months, the discussion of splits inside Hamas have been examined over and over and over....

Does Hamas split with part going into partnership with Abbas and the Muslim Brotherhood and the other more radical branch of Hamas staying the course with Iran and  Hezbollah?

Is it about true regligous beliefs and there splits inside Hamas or is it about young radicals who simply don't wont to give up the vision of killing Jews?

Two months ago, I made the statement Iran would rather see a split Hamas than lose their strategic location and dedication.

I commented that Iran doesn't need the whole Hamas organization, but they do need the radical slice.

Gilad Shalit was a key figure for Iran's slice of Hamas...

His ties to Lebanese Hezbollah were undeniable.

If Iran could live with a split Hamas, then members like Shalit were vital to Iran's plan.

No one understood this more than Israel.

So, why did they kill him now?

Why did they take the appearance of striking the first blow in a potential violent breakout event?

Why play into the hands of Iran by striking first?

Simple.....

Israel is not in the business of accepting causalities in order to prove to the world they were right about a pending threat!!!

A concept that must not be overlooked as Israel threatens to take action against Iran's Nuclear program.

Sometimes, the "message" is sent inside a smaller event, and this may be exactly what Israel is doing right now.

I am convinced that is just what happened!!

Is now a dangerous time for Israel to take such bold preemptive actions in Gaza?

Yes!!!

Is it possibly playing right into the  Iranian plan of forcing Israel to be the Aggressor???

Yes!!

Does Israel understand this risk?

Yes!!

In my viewpoint, Israel just sent the message to Iran...

To me, Israel's message was this; "If you think we will not become the aggressor for sake of world opinion... you are wrong... dangerously wrong"!!!

Gaza is more dangerous now than it has ever been, yet Israel sent a strong message..... NO... Israel sent a WARNING!!!

Lets see how Iran hears it..

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/03/201239191418231164.html

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=261152

THE INSANITY OF SYRIA'S LOGIC

Within the past few days, I have read and heard the most ridicules and frankly poorly scripted excuse as to why the Syrian Military utilized Heavy, field artillery units against the city of Homs and the suburb area of Bab Amr.

To keep things simple, the Al Assad government storyline was based on, "Terrorist" hiding inside the city!!!!

Lets think about that for just a minute.

Lets suppose a group of armed " Terrorist" barricaded themselves in Lower Manhattan.

Lets suppose the US Government had information that some of the people in Lower Manhattan were, "sympathetic" / passively sympathetic  as most Women and Children are.

Does any rational person believe for a minute the proper way to react to such an event is to call in the United States Army's Field Artillery units accompanied by Tanks and level Lower Manhattan????

This argument of " Terrorist" being in Homs and Bab Amr even if true does not address the deliberate decision to murder every, Hostage" around the " Terrorist" in order to eliminate the " Terrorist"..... for you see.. if the world is to take Al Assad at his word, then he must admit the Syrian Government had and has absolutely no remorse over killing the innocent Syrians who just happen to be in the Homs, Bab Amr..

When, "Terrorist" are hiding in a school.. do you bomb the school??

Now, let me try to explain why I think Al Assad used and will continue to use such disproportionate tactics.

First off, and most importantly, he does't care about the people in these cities and towns..

They are all his  "cattle" and if he must kill a few here and there to keep the "herd" in line... so be it!!!

Secondly, his tactics are inherited.

Like Father.... like Son!!! to include his Brother....

Bombing a city is a tactic his supporters can and obviously support... I.E.. The Russians.... just ask the people of Crozny..

" Kill a few hundred  to make a few hundred thousand fear you"... That is Al Assad.

Ok, let me give some hope to those who are trying to weather Al Assads Rapture!

I firmly believe we have seen a fundamental change in Al Assad's governments tactics for a reason based on desperation.

You see...... when you can no longer trust your ground troops to follow your orders....when you have your Commanders informing you their troops grow tired of  the face to face killing of fellow Syrian Citizens... when the rumors of mass defections become more than rumors.. .then you must take action.

Two things must happen!!!

First... you must speedup the process... crush the conflict as quickly as possible or risk losing the bulk of your militaries support... Thus the use of disproportionate  force.

Secondly... you must remove your forces from face to face murder!!!!

Allow the units to kill from a distance and kill with little knowledge of who they are killing.

Take away the troops ability to see the truth.. take away their contact with the outside world and do not let them communicate with their families.. .especially their Mothers or Sisters or Daughters... thus.. .again.. the use of distant weapons.. Field Artillery..

Finally; If you can inflict the overwhelming force with limited unit involvement, utilizing "specialized units, then you can control the flame that spreads desertion.

And when it is all said and done, and you forces move into the area to, "clean up", make sure your state controlled media has a well thought out story line about the damage left behind by the " Terrorist"... and the Atrocities they committed.  

Those stories are not for the Free World to believe.

 They are for the Syrian people to hear and more importantly for the troops to see and hopefully believe.

Yes... Al Assad  use of distant killing machines is a sign of how desperate he and his government  has really become.

MOTHER RUSSIA NEW TSAR????

It's interesting how fast and how complicated the talk of Putin not being

"legitimate" has become.

Putin is wiser than most of our modern day political leaders realize and in

fact most of them do not remember a time with Putin ran the most ruthless,

complicated organization in the world... the KGB...

Some of the early indicators that showed Putin knew what he was going to be

up against really came to the surface last week.

As a Master Manipulator, Putin shaped two stories  that hinted how he would counter

the opposition plotting against him.

One was the story of the foiled assignation plot against him and the second

was the discovery of what he called ' fake You Tube clips showing corruption

during the elections even though the elections had not been held yet.

Both stories were brilliantly scripted, both with an overall theme of

someone or some government was out to stop him from taking Mother Russia to

a new level!

His next hint came not soon after that.

His speech on the night of the election had a dire warning imbedded in it....

that is if anyone was listening.

His comment on how "others" / insert the US here / who continued to attempt

to  disrupt the government of Russia had failed and would fail in the future was yet another indication of how he planned to rule.

Again, we must remember, this is a man who had the entire KGB machine at his fingertips smack in the middle of the Cold War.

This is a man who formed his personality and his leadership skills inside

the KGB.

This is a man who is convinced the Russian version of the Arab Spring is

perhaps just around the corner; a man who believes only he can dictate what

"change" should mean to Russia.

This is a man who lived and lives his life in a version of paranoia unknown

to most Americans.

It is probably more than accurate to see others already referring to him as

the " New Tsar" of Russia.

His weapons are many, but one stands out.

Oil is his tool for rebuilding Russia to the vision he tried to achieve

inside the KGB.

Oil is the weapon he will use against his enemies.. just ask Europe!!!

It is  his paranoia and his drive for Mother Russia that  will make his stance on

issues in the Middle East hard to accept, but easy to understand.

In the long run... 150 dollar a barrel oil is good for Russia... and it's

even better for a Tsar who is out to rebuild his homeland.

Iran and Syria..... it all spells crisis and crisis in the Middle East

spells $100+ a barrel.... exactly what the Tsar is looking for.

A Middle East on the verge of a regional war is a world that doesn't care

about crushed demonstrations in Moscow!!!

Yes.. in my book... the Tsar is back and this particular Tsar may become the

most famous one of all.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/03/20123664929140327.ht

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