WHAT AIR OPTIONS DOES THE REST OF THE WORLD REALLY HAVE?

I promised a friend I would readdress the issue of Air Operations against the killing machine taking place in Syria.

I will keep this as simplistic as I can so those that read it can see what the options are compared to the risk, and to be honest, the risk are far greater than the options.

When I am finished, I will give one glimmer of hope, but it just may be that one glimmer that allows the rest of the world to act.

Ok, here is the down and dirty.

If you want to send the right message to Russia, Iran and the Eye Doctor and his Brother, the one really calling the shots, then you strike targets that are supporting the killing machine that is surrounding the cities.

Strike the supply routes, strike the main roadways the Syrian Army is using to move support to the North.  Cover them in cluster bombs.

Be ready for the Syrian news showing innocent people being killed by these attacks.

Have the briefing ready to go that shows what was used and where it was used and do so before the Syrian press get the false stories out.

Get this information out to the UN as soon as possible or even tell them it's going to take place just prior to the attack, like maybe 20 min prior.

Make the troops manning the artillery and the tanks realize the retreat will cost them their lives, thus putting the pressure on them to surrenders or just walk away from the equipment, much like the Iraqi soldiers did in Desert Storm!.

Conduct these strikes with weapons platforms that can penetrate the Syrian Air Defense Systems such as cruse missiles and such.

Avoid manned aircraft platforms with the exception of standoff options such as B52s and B2s.

Avoid destroying the Syrian Air Defense system for that would simply drive up their fear of being unable to defend the nation.

What I am talking about here is a large, fast, quick, one time strike.

A message would be sent...

"Shock and Awe" without six months of planning... simply not needed now days..

Strike the ability to continue the assault on Homs or another city.... not all at once.

Saving every city is simply too complicated and a step too far.

Now, the point of this type of attack is not to show Al Assad what can happen to him.

The point is to show his military leaders what awaits them.

After a few days of nothing but words from the Russians and the Iranians.. the Syrian Military Commanders will have to make a choice; Stay with Al Asssad and destroy Syrians' ability to defend the country or turn on him and negotiate.

Our trick will be to not do something as asinine as we did in Iraq; don't toss out the whole military leadership and leave the country to idiots like we did we with Debathificatoin in Iraq.

Tell the FSA and the SNC that some of the leadership must stay or the support is off.

How bad to they want the killing to stop?

Nobody in this world gets everything their way every time they want it.

Compromise is a word they must understand or they will continue to be slaughtered.

Here comes the dangerous part!!!

If Iran chose to fight it's coming battle with Israel and the US in Syria and not in Iran and not over their nuclear program, then they will not stand by why the rest of the Worlds far more advanced military machine devastates the front line units of Syria.

Russia is not going to fight a 'proxy" war with the rest of the world, but the Iranian event would give Putin exactly what he desires... 150.. 200 per barrel oil and the chance to be the " peace maker"..

Can the world strike the Syrian killing machine without the risk of immediate losses?

yes..

Can the word do so without driving the Middle East into a Regional war?

Maybe?

Ok. in closing... here is the one hint of optimism I alluded to in the beginning!!

Iranian military commanders are loyal followers of the regime, but the rank and file are young... and they have dreams of a world as they see it, not as the "old men" see it.

If Iran is pushed to the brink of a war and the youth of the military truly are lead to believe they are never going to see a normal life after that war, will they follow?

Are they devout nationalist??

Are they all fanatical Fundamentalist?

Or, are they mostly young and full of life!!

I honestly don't know,  but it may be the only saving grace we can count on.

The whole area is simply boiling!!!! 

ESCALATION OR BUSINESS AS USUAL?

By now, nearly everyone realizes the Middle East is far from, "normal", with normal being periods of violence, separated by periods of harsh words. followed up by meaningless meetings... then back to periods of violence.

It's seems to be a timeless metaphor  when we hear, ' The Middle East is a Tinderbox'!!!

These are usually the overexerted words pouring out of the mouths of some "talking head"  looking for  a paycheck from one of the news programs.

Unfortunately, after years and years of hearing this redundant comment, it's probably truer than it has ever been.

Time and time again, I have talked about the danger of Iran picking a fight to keep the devastating loss of Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah from taking place.

In the past few months, the discussion of splits inside Hamas have been examined over and over and over....

Does Hamas split with part going into partnership with Abbas and the Muslim Brotherhood and the other more radical branch of Hamas staying the course with Iran and  Hezbollah?

Is it about true regligous beliefs and there splits inside Hamas or is it about young radicals who simply don't wont to give up the vision of killing Jews?

Two months ago, I made the statement Iran would rather see a split Hamas than lose their strategic location and dedication.

I commented that Iran doesn't need the whole Hamas organization, but they do need the radical slice.

Gilad Shalit was a key figure for Iran's slice of Hamas...

His ties to Lebanese Hezbollah were undeniable.

If Iran could live with a split Hamas, then members like Shalit were vital to Iran's plan.

No one understood this more than Israel.

So, why did they kill him now?

Why did they take the appearance of striking the first blow in a potential violent breakout event?

Why play into the hands of Iran by striking first?

Simple.....

Israel is not in the business of accepting causalities in order to prove to the world they were right about a pending threat!!!

A concept that must not be overlooked as Israel threatens to take action against Iran's Nuclear program.

Sometimes, the "message" is sent inside a smaller event, and this may be exactly what Israel is doing right now.

I am convinced that is just what happened!!

Is now a dangerous time for Israel to take such bold preemptive actions in Gaza?

Yes!!!

Is it possibly playing right into the  Iranian plan of forcing Israel to be the Aggressor???

Yes!!

Does Israel understand this risk?

Yes!!

In my viewpoint, Israel just sent the message to Iran...

To me, Israel's message was this; "If you think we will not become the aggressor for sake of world opinion... you are wrong... dangerously wrong"!!!

Gaza is more dangerous now than it has ever been, yet Israel sent a strong message..... NO... Israel sent a WARNING!!!

Lets see how Iran hears it..

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/03/201239191418231164.html

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=261152

THE INSANITY OF SYRIA'S LOGIC

Within the past few days, I have read and heard the most ridicules and frankly poorly scripted excuse as to why the Syrian Military utilized Heavy, field artillery units against the city of Homs and the suburb area of Bab Amr.

To keep things simple, the Al Assad government storyline was based on, "Terrorist" hiding inside the city!!!!

Lets think about that for just a minute.

Lets suppose a group of armed " Terrorist" barricaded themselves in Lower Manhattan.

Lets suppose the US Government had information that some of the people in Lower Manhattan were, "sympathetic" / passively sympathetic  as most Women and Children are.

Does any rational person believe for a minute the proper way to react to such an event is to call in the United States Army's Field Artillery units accompanied by Tanks and level Lower Manhattan????

This argument of " Terrorist" being in Homs and Bab Amr even if true does not address the deliberate decision to murder every, Hostage" around the " Terrorist" in order to eliminate the " Terrorist"..... for you see.. if the world is to take Al Assad at his word, then he must admit the Syrian Government had and has absolutely no remorse over killing the innocent Syrians who just happen to be in the Homs, Bab Amr..

When, "Terrorist" are hiding in a school.. do you bomb the school??

Now, let me try to explain why I think Al Assad used and will continue to use such disproportionate tactics.

First off, and most importantly, he does't care about the people in these cities and towns..

They are all his  "cattle" and if he must kill a few here and there to keep the "herd" in line... so be it!!!

Secondly, his tactics are inherited.

Like Father.... like Son!!! to include his Brother....

Bombing a city is a tactic his supporters can and obviously support... I.E.. The Russians.... just ask the people of Crozny..

" Kill a few hundred  to make a few hundred thousand fear you"... That is Al Assad.

Ok, let me give some hope to those who are trying to weather Al Assads Rapture!

I firmly believe we have seen a fundamental change in Al Assad's governments tactics for a reason based on desperation.

You see...... when you can no longer trust your ground troops to follow your orders....when you have your Commanders informing you their troops grow tired of  the face to face killing of fellow Syrian Citizens... when the rumors of mass defections become more than rumors.. .then you must take action.

Two things must happen!!!

First... you must speedup the process... crush the conflict as quickly as possible or risk losing the bulk of your militaries support... Thus the use of disproportionate  force.

Secondly... you must remove your forces from face to face murder!!!!

Allow the units to kill from a distance and kill with little knowledge of who they are killing.

Take away the troops ability to see the truth.. take away their contact with the outside world and do not let them communicate with their families.. .especially their Mothers or Sisters or Daughters... thus.. .again.. the use of distant weapons.. Field Artillery..

Finally; If you can inflict the overwhelming force with limited unit involvement, utilizing "specialized units, then you can control the flame that spreads desertion.

And when it is all said and done, and you forces move into the area to, "clean up", make sure your state controlled media has a well thought out story line about the damage left behind by the " Terrorist"... and the Atrocities they committed.  

Those stories are not for the Free World to believe.

 They are for the Syrian people to hear and more importantly for the troops to see and hopefully believe.

Yes... Al Assad  use of distant killing machines is a sign of how desperate he and his government  has really become.

MOTHER RUSSIA NEW TSAR????

It's interesting how fast and how complicated the talk of Putin not being

"legitimate" has become.

Putin is wiser than most of our modern day political leaders realize and in

fact most of them do not remember a time with Putin ran the most ruthless,

complicated organization in the world... the KGB...

Some of the early indicators that showed Putin knew what he was going to be

up against really came to the surface last week.

As a Master Manipulator, Putin shaped two stories  that hinted how he would counter

the opposition plotting against him.

One was the story of the foiled assignation plot against him and the second

was the discovery of what he called ' fake You Tube clips showing corruption

during the elections even though the elections had not been held yet.

Both stories were brilliantly scripted, both with an overall theme of

someone or some government was out to stop him from taking Mother Russia to

a new level!

His next hint came not soon after that.

His speech on the night of the election had a dire warning imbedded in it....

that is if anyone was listening.

His comment on how "others" / insert the US here / who continued to attempt

to  disrupt the government of Russia had failed and would fail in the future was yet another indication of how he planned to rule.

Again, we must remember, this is a man who had the entire KGB machine at his fingertips smack in the middle of the Cold War.

This is a man who formed his personality and his leadership skills inside

the KGB.

This is a man who is convinced the Russian version of the Arab Spring is

perhaps just around the corner; a man who believes only he can dictate what

"change" should mean to Russia.

This is a man who lived and lives his life in a version of paranoia unknown

to most Americans.

It is probably more than accurate to see others already referring to him as

the " New Tsar" of Russia.

His weapons are many, but one stands out.

Oil is his tool for rebuilding Russia to the vision he tried to achieve

inside the KGB.

Oil is the weapon he will use against his enemies.. just ask Europe!!!

It is  his paranoia and his drive for Mother Russia that  will make his stance on

issues in the Middle East hard to accept, but easy to understand.

In the long run... 150 dollar a barrel oil is good for Russia... and it's

even better for a Tsar who is out to rebuild his homeland.

Iran and Syria..... it all spells crisis and crisis in the Middle East

spells $100+ a barrel.... exactly what the Tsar is looking for.

A Middle East on the verge of a regional war is a world that doesn't care

about crushed demonstrations in Moscow!!!

Yes.. in my book... the Tsar is back and this particular Tsar may become the

most famous one of all.

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/03/20123664929140327.ht

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THE HEZBOLLAH.... HAMAS... PA... GAME... WHAT IS GOING ON?

Two interesting stories attached that continue to lead to the same fundamental question, what is going on with Hezbollah, Hamas and the PA and are they in the Iranian camp or not?

As I read the statements from Nasrallah I was somewhat shocked to see his reference to "Christians" needing to take Jerusalem!!!

Having Nasrallah ask for support from the Christian faith is a facinating tack on Hezbollah's part.

Does anyone really think, does Nasrallah believe, that Christians will side with Hezbollah???

I'm afraid Nasrallah has been a tapping into the Hezbollah Opium funds.. Oh yes.. Hezbollah makes money of the drug market and don't let anyone tell you otherwise!!!!

Now, it's common knowledge Hezbollah needs the Christian support in Lebanon to keep things moving their way and so this message is probably not aimed at the World Wide Christian movement!.

I would be willing to bet he completely forgot that public statements go viral on the internet within minutes in this modern world.

The second thing I found interesting was the timing of the speech.

Everyone knows Nasrallah loves to give fiery rampages and most of the time this particular rant would fall right in line with his typical tirades.

As I have said before, these are not "typical times" and the spark of a misconstrued rant could lead to a regional war.

What really caught my attention about this speech was the second article attached.

Abbas, who's movement the PA is involved in a  deeply complicated power struggle with Hamas suddenly comes out and gives a warning utilizing words that are all too familiar  to people in the Middle East; " Mother of All"... .fill in the punch line....

He chose these words carefully and again I am convinced his audience was  not the people of Israel or the West.

His audience is internal..

His target was the Palestinian  People themselves.

What is even more troublesome is the topic.

Both the statement from Nasrallah and the statement from Abbas talk to the issue of territory inside or under the control of Israel.

Is it a coincidence these two leaders would give such fiery lectures at nearly the same time?

One has to wonder!

I simply refuse to lose sight of a few dangerous facts.

1.  Iran is in real trouble and they know it.

2.  Syria is in even more trouble and Iran knows it.

3.  Hezbollah is in trouble in Lebanon and Iran knows it.

4.  The idea that Hamas may have broken away from Syria and Iran is in question.

5.  Iran cannot afford to be the instigator of the next conflict in the Middle East.

6.  Iran must provoke Israel into action and do so at a time of Iran's choosing.  

Nothing... absolutely nothing in the Middle East right now is a matter of " coincidence" right now!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=260386

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=260436

CONTINUED DISCUSSION ON THE FUTURE OF HEZBOLLAH.

 The bottom line is simple; Hezbollah is  at a crucial turning point.

They must finally decide, and do so soon to stick with Al Assad and his

Boss, Iran, to the bitter end or begin to find a way to survive the Sunni /

MB / movement.

Now, I know many will say Hezbollah is already a political party....

perception... it's what drives the Middle East...

 In the Middle East, to the young men, Hezbollah is a organization of

Warriors... Freedom fighters.. Not politicians.

To Iran, Hezbollah is a proxy weapon against Israel and the West.

To the  young men who believe that fighting and killing is the only true path in life, there is nothing political about Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's strength is not measured by it's elder political leaders with Academic backgrounds.

It's power is fear and it's fear is based upon it's weapons and skills in using them.

So you see, Hezbollah may have a political branch, but that "branch" is secondary to the real Hezbollah.. the military side of Hezbollah.

Even with all their tactical power and strategic impact in the region and the world, Hezbollah is worried and grows more worried with each passing day.

Hezbollah watched the division build inside of Hamas and the announcement

last week of Hamas abandoning Al Assad did not go unnoticed.

Their future is as unpredictable now as it has ever been.

Hezbollah also knows Iran is running out of friends and time.

They no longer trust Hamas and Al Assad is becoming more and more toxic to

the Arab world with each passing day; an Arab world Iran must count on in a War with Israel.

Supporting Al Assad is damaging Hezbollah's reputation close to the point of

no return, and Iran knows the same holds true for them.

The very idea the Arab World would come to the aid of Iran in a conflict

with Israel grows dimmer by the minute; as if it was ever truly an option!

I am at a loss as to why the media has not picked up on the desperate

situation Iran finds itself in.

The  worn out strategy of  Sanctions, a tool that usually leads to

conflicts not prevention .... just ask Japan... is not going to solve the

problem..

It may give political cover to kick the Iranian can down the road past

November 0f 2012, but it will not make the Iranian issue go away!

In the US military, there is a saying, " Hope is not a plan". 

If someone "hopes" the Arab Spring will rise in Iran before a war is needed, then that is disastrous planing base on "hope"! 

 Sanctions:

It is a huge mistake to judge Iran's status by simply looking at their

economic situation; a failed concept time and time again.

 Lebanon:

If the March 8th Cabinet falls, then it will be because Hezbollah has

decided it should happen.

If Hezbollah decides to let it fall, then they have decided to stay the

course with Al Assad and Iran.

That is how the Sunni will see it!

If Hezbollah is willing to take this step, then they are willing to bring

the Sunni / Shia / Iran / Al Assad / battlegrounds to Lebanon.

That is how Lebanon will see it!!

Again and again, I will make this point; Iran  cannot afford to lose Hezbollah and Hezbollah must decide it's  future soon.

The events in Lebanon may hold the answers! 

 A SIGNIFICANT MOVE, BUT IS IT TRUE???

For the Syrian Freedom Movement to reach out, or at least talk as if they are reaching out to Hezbollah, is a very important event.

Burhan Ghalioun may or may not speak for the whole movement and that is one of the factors this is hurting the Freedom Movement's cause.

Regardless, the idea of the SNC seemingly changing it's attitude towards Hezbollah is absolutely a disastrous turn of events for Al Assad and Iran.

With Hamas braking ranks with Syria last week, and most likely Iran as well, Iran and Al Assad can ill afford to have Hezbollah tantalized by an offer from their enemy.

Now, pulling Hezbollah away from Al Assad would mean they would have to pull away from Iran and I would have to see proof of that before I even came close to believing it.

None the less, Hezbollah is more about Hezbollah and their hold on Lebanon than going down with a sinking ship such as Al Assad. ( see my post from last week about Hezbollah and the Titanic.)

Hezbollah has not lost sight of the fact their credibility in the Middle East is greatly damaged with their continued support for Al Assad.

The concept of the SNC offering Hezbollah a continued " friend" in Syria after the fall of Al Assad, is at least a  tempting conversation!!!!

This almost seems like a SNC version of, " Ether you are with us or you are against us"!!

The Sunni tide cannot be stopped by Hezbollah and if Hezbollah wishes to survive the wave, they may need to make new friends.. at least temporarily..

All in all, I brilliant move by the SNC..

I didn't think of this when I talked about the future of Hezbollah last week.

Good move SNC, but don't forget.... Iran gets a vote!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259894