THE HEZBOLLAH.... HAMAS... PA... GAME... WHAT IS GOING ON?

Two interesting stories attached that continue to lead to the same fundamental question, what is going on with Hezbollah, Hamas and the PA and are they in the Iranian camp or not?

As I read the statements from Nasrallah I was somewhat shocked to see his reference to "Christians" needing to take Jerusalem!!!

Having Nasrallah ask for support from the Christian faith is a facinating tack on Hezbollah's part.

Does anyone really think, does Nasrallah believe, that Christians will side with Hezbollah???

I'm afraid Nasrallah has been a tapping into the Hezbollah Opium funds.. Oh yes.. Hezbollah makes money of the drug market and don't let anyone tell you otherwise!!!!

Now, it's common knowledge Hezbollah needs the Christian support in Lebanon to keep things moving their way and so this message is probably not aimed at the World Wide Christian movement!.

I would be willing to bet he completely forgot that public statements go viral on the internet within minutes in this modern world.

The second thing I found interesting was the timing of the speech.

Everyone knows Nasrallah loves to give fiery rampages and most of the time this particular rant would fall right in line with his typical tirades.

As I have said before, these are not "typical times" and the spark of a misconstrued rant could lead to a regional war.

What really caught my attention about this speech was the second article attached.

Abbas, who's movement the PA is involved in a  deeply complicated power struggle with Hamas suddenly comes out and gives a warning utilizing words that are all too familiar  to people in the Middle East; " Mother of All"... .fill in the punch line....

He chose these words carefully and again I am convinced his audience was  not the people of Israel or the West.

His audience is internal..

His target was the Palestinian  People themselves.

What is even more troublesome is the topic.

Both the statement from Nasrallah and the statement from Abbas talk to the issue of territory inside or under the control of Israel.

Is it a coincidence these two leaders would give such fiery lectures at nearly the same time?

One has to wonder!

I simply refuse to lose sight of a few dangerous facts.

1.  Iran is in real trouble and they know it.

2.  Syria is in even more trouble and Iran knows it.

3.  Hezbollah is in trouble in Lebanon and Iran knows it.

4.  The idea that Hamas may have broken away from Syria and Iran is in question.

5.  Iran cannot afford to be the instigator of the next conflict in the Middle East.

6.  Iran must provoke Israel into action and do so at a time of Iran's choosing.  

Nothing... absolutely nothing in the Middle East right now is a matter of " coincidence" right now!!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=260386

http://www.jpost.com/DiplomacyAndPolitics/Article.aspx?id=260436

CONTINUED DISCUSSION ON THE FUTURE OF HEZBOLLAH.

 The bottom line is simple; Hezbollah is  at a crucial turning point.

They must finally decide, and do so soon to stick with Al Assad and his

Boss, Iran, to the bitter end or begin to find a way to survive the Sunni /

MB / movement.

Now, I know many will say Hezbollah is already a political party....

perception... it's what drives the Middle East...

 In the Middle East, to the young men, Hezbollah is a organization of

Warriors... Freedom fighters.. Not politicians.

To Iran, Hezbollah is a proxy weapon against Israel and the West.

To the  young men who believe that fighting and killing is the only true path in life, there is nothing political about Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's strength is not measured by it's elder political leaders with Academic backgrounds.

It's power is fear and it's fear is based upon it's weapons and skills in using them.

So you see, Hezbollah may have a political branch, but that "branch" is secondary to the real Hezbollah.. the military side of Hezbollah.

Even with all their tactical power and strategic impact in the region and the world, Hezbollah is worried and grows more worried with each passing day.

Hezbollah watched the division build inside of Hamas and the announcement

last week of Hamas abandoning Al Assad did not go unnoticed.

Their future is as unpredictable now as it has ever been.

Hezbollah also knows Iran is running out of friends and time.

They no longer trust Hamas and Al Assad is becoming more and more toxic to

the Arab world with each passing day; an Arab world Iran must count on in a War with Israel.

Supporting Al Assad is damaging Hezbollah's reputation close to the point of

no return, and Iran knows the same holds true for them.

The very idea the Arab World would come to the aid of Iran in a conflict

with Israel grows dimmer by the minute; as if it was ever truly an option!

I am at a loss as to why the media has not picked up on the desperate

situation Iran finds itself in.

The  worn out strategy of  Sanctions, a tool that usually leads to

conflicts not prevention .... just ask Japan... is not going to solve the

problem..

It may give political cover to kick the Iranian can down the road past

November 0f 2012, but it will not make the Iranian issue go away!

In the US military, there is a saying, " Hope is not a plan". 

If someone "hopes" the Arab Spring will rise in Iran before a war is needed, then that is disastrous planing base on "hope"! 

 Sanctions:

It is a huge mistake to judge Iran's status by simply looking at their

economic situation; a failed concept time and time again.

 Lebanon:

If the March 8th Cabinet falls, then it will be because Hezbollah has

decided it should happen.

If Hezbollah decides to let it fall, then they have decided to stay the

course with Al Assad and Iran.

That is how the Sunni will see it!

If Hezbollah is willing to take this step, then they are willing to bring

the Sunni / Shia / Iran / Al Assad / battlegrounds to Lebanon.

That is how Lebanon will see it!!

Again and again, I will make this point; Iran  cannot afford to lose Hezbollah and Hezbollah must decide it's  future soon.

The events in Lebanon may hold the answers! 

 A SIGNIFICANT MOVE, BUT IS IT TRUE???

For the Syrian Freedom Movement to reach out, or at least talk as if they are reaching out to Hezbollah, is a very important event.

Burhan Ghalioun may or may not speak for the whole movement and that is one of the factors this is hurting the Freedom Movement's cause.

Regardless, the idea of the SNC seemingly changing it's attitude towards Hezbollah is absolutely a disastrous turn of events for Al Assad and Iran.

With Hamas braking ranks with Syria last week, and most likely Iran as well, Iran and Al Assad can ill afford to have Hezbollah tantalized by an offer from their enemy.

Now, pulling Hezbollah away from Al Assad would mean they would have to pull away from Iran and I would have to see proof of that before I even came close to believing it.

None the less, Hezbollah is more about Hezbollah and their hold on Lebanon than going down with a sinking ship such as Al Assad. ( see my post from last week about Hezbollah and the Titanic.)

Hezbollah has not lost sight of the fact their credibility in the Middle East is greatly damaged with their continued support for Al Assad.

The concept of the SNC offering Hezbollah a continued " friend" in Syria after the fall of Al Assad, is at least a  tempting conversation!!!!

This almost seems like a SNC version of, " Ether you are with us or you are against us"!!

The Sunni tide cannot be stopped by Hezbollah and if Hezbollah wishes to survive the wave, they may need to make new friends.. at least temporarily..

All in all, I brilliant move by the SNC..

I didn't think of this when I talked about the future of Hezbollah last week.

Good move SNC, but don't forget.... Iran gets a vote!!!

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259894

HOW TO DEFEAT THE AL ASSAD MACHINE

Part Three:

After talking to a few "friends" dealing with the events in Syria day by day , I decided to continue the topic of how to counter and defeat the murderous events in Syria.

How to defeat Air field operations.

The Resistance Fighters, although I would recognize them as Freedom Fighters now, have shown the skillcraft of attacking the Syrian Air Force Bases.

The problem was, they were after the intelligence operations there and not the Air Field itself.

Tactically speaking, the best and most basic way to defeat Air Power, ether rotor wing or fixed wing, is to never let it get off the ground.

by simple design all fixed wing aircraft are easy targets to ground, direct fire, operations and the runways are easily targets for indirect fire ops such as mortars.

Simple hit and run operations against Air fields can be conducted from nearly the maximum range of the automatic weapons and still have devistating effects.

Target the fuel farms if at all possible at the same time the aircraft are being targeted.

Once the attack is underway, do not linger!!!  Attack and leave.

Have observers who can spot the reaction forces, for this will allow you to maximize your escape timeline.

Hit the Air Field from more than one direction at the same time.

Have a small element that places fire on the reaction force.

A force under fire moves and apx 20 percent of the speed of a force not under fire.

Rake the area you are firing into. Do not aim at just one target.. This creates far more confusion.

This is big... Do not use ammunition with tracer rounds.

The damage cause by the rounds is great enough when dealing with fixed wing air craft and the tracer rounds only give away one's position.

As I have said before, have a place to hide if you can't get completely away from the attack.

Have the ability to "blend" with the local population at all times.

Leave the weapons if you need to.

You can find weapons far easier than you can replace skilled attack teams.

Night time attacks from a distance that last less than five minutes have a devistating psychological impact on an enemy.

An hour after you are gone, the enemy will still move, act and think you are still there.

Trust me this works!!!  I trained for these type of events for years.  

HOW TO DEFEAT THE AL ASSAD MACHINE

Part Two:

A few weeks ago, I talked to the issue of how to defeat the killing machine run by the Al Assad dictatorship.

After talking with a few " friends" of the movement, I promissed I would address this process once again, with perhaps a few additional items of advice.

First, let me start by saying it is far easier to sit thousands of miles away and dictate how someone should place their life on the line for the sake of their families and their loved ones.

The old expression in the US is, "talk is cheap"!

It is for that reason I can only hope these words add value to those that are truly risking everything for freedom, a freedom that does not have a single definition.. it is not a Western concept... it is not a Eastern concept... it is not a political concept... it is the essences of being Human; thus those that suppress freedom are not human.

When I last spoke on the concept of defeating Al Assad's machine, I started with some very basic tenants of conflict that cannot be broken.

For the sake of clarity, I will go over them again before I move on to tactical issues.

THE THREE "NEVERS"!!

1.  Never lose your sense of humanity. Do not brutalize anyone other than the armed enemy facing you, and when they drop their arms, show compassion at all cost; for this is the difference between what you are fighting and what you are fighting for.

2.  Never let someone join your cause that has their own agenda and if they do, show the world they are not with you but yet another element of suppressing  the path to freedom. Expose them!!!

3.  Never lie to the people you are trying to free!!!

TACTICS AL ASSAD CANNOT DEFEAT!!

Document any act of inhumanity and take the risk of bringing impartial observers, such as the media with you.

If your own people commit a " wrong" own it and show the world you will not allow it to continue. let it be documented and let the process of fixing it be documented as well. take the tool / weapon / of " accusations out of the hands of the Syrian Government. Tell the story before Al Alssad's supporters get the chance to shape the event.  again.... let a third party show how you owned the event and made changes to prevent it again. Hide nothing!!

  If you can prove Iranian support, do it at all cost and document it with a third party if at all possible.

TACTICS AL ASSAD'S MILITARY CANNOT DEFEAT!!

1.  Never let them rest!!

            Never let the " rear" rest!!!  early in the morning, pre dawn!! Fast. and leave.

            Let there be no "peace", but limit the actions to those that are armed who face  you.

              When conducting operations to the rear, do not attack the unarmed and do not  allow others to do so.

2.  Know where you can hide after an attack and do so quickly. have an " exit plan".

3.  Keep attacks simple and spend little time planning them.

            the longer you take, the greater the risk it will be compromised

            As I said a few weeks ago, this calls for "specially trained members who trust each other.

4. Fight at night and never fight the armor at night.

            Fight the troops outside the armor that are defending them.

            If there is no one outside the armor defending it and you do not have the weapons to defeat the armor, then let it go. Do not lose valuable lives for the sake of heroics against armor.

5.  Pick fights near the border with Turkey or Jordan.

            Force these countries to worry about the Syrian actions.

            Hit and Run tactics that let these two nations realize how close the conflict is.

            Do not run to a safe zone in their countries unless you have casualties and then drop them off and leave.

            Show these two countries you are not hiding behind their borders and that you are willing to keep from drawing them into the conflict.....Win their minds by not making the media pressure them into action.

6.  When you capture an enemy, show compassion and document it as soon as possible.

7.  Turn some of them lose when possible and tell them they are not the enemy.. .Al Alssad and his followers are.  the word will spread like wild fire!!!!

Again, these are easy sometimes mindless comments from thousands of miles away, but they represent " ideas" that should be reviewed and modified to achieve the desired goal for the Syrian People.

Last but not least... be prepared to go this fight alone!!!!

Do not let anyone in to "help" that is not there to do anything other than free the Syrian people and be prepared for Iran to wage a war on your ground if needed.

If Iran does, let them.. .this will unite the Syrian people and Al Alssad will fall!

Never...Ever.... lose your compassion for others... You enemy is only an enemy until you convince them not to be one!!!

As soon as that happens.. your hand much reach out... You must take the risk!!!

HEZBOLLAH.. REARRANGING THE DECK CHAIRS ON THE TITANIC!!! 

Two days ago, I talked about the apparent split between Hamas and Syria and the repercussions of such an event on the entire region.

For months now, the general opinion has been, 'as Syria goes... so goes ... Lebanon'...

The problem was and continues to be, most people don't understand what that could mean to the rhythm of the Middle East.

As the two attached articles point out, the split inside the leadership of Lebanon is growing and could quickly reach a crisis point.

What does this have to do with Hamas splitting with Syria?

Simple, if Hamas has made a clean break and that break is based on Sunni / Shia lines, then Hezbollah ends up on the other side of playing field for Hamas.

When a group such as Hamas makes such a bold move, it only puts pressure on Hezbollah and it's goal of maintaining control in Lebanon.

The fact that Lebanese leadership is split over support for Syria is not new.  

The increased pressure on Hezbollah by the actions of Hamas is the new twist!!!!

Hhaled Abu Toameh brings up an outstanding point in his article attached.

There never was any 'love' for the the PLO inside Syria and in fact the age old Arab tactic of manipulating a so called 'Friend' in order to achieve a self-interest was always priority one for the Al Assad family.

The Al Assad families goals have never been based on religion or nationalistic pride and only a fool would think so.

The goal has always been for the family and it's loyal friends to maintain a vast fortune.

 From being the ruling party; not unlike any other dictatorship in the world, was out to secure personal power and wealth.

This is the legacy of the Al Assad family in the Middle East and everyone that lives there knows it and that includes Hezbollah and Hamas.

The mirage of Hamas and Syria was forged on brittle steel just like the Titanic and just like the Titanic this brittle foundation has crumbled.

Hezbollah sits aboard the Sister Ship, HMHS Britannic.. this time called Lebanon.. and sees the Titanic... Syria going down fast.

So, now the question becomes, what does Hezbollah do?

Do they rearrange the Deck Chairs or do they jump ship while they still can?

Here is their real dilemma and they know it!!!

Who do they jump ship to??????

If Hezbollah decides not to turn Lebanon into  a battle ground for the sake of Syria and ultimately  Iran, the Persians, then what alternative to they have???

My bet...... Look at the IRA in Ireland...

Go " Political"... Go legit...

Go the route of the Muslim Brotherhood and state you are willing to meet the Sunni and the rest of the world in the middle!

Some are going to ask.... " would this really work"???

My answer... Ask the Murderer Jerry Adams!!!

Hezbollah has now way out...

Hamas has shown the way....

Will Hezbollah follow????

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259357

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259360

AS THE OLD SAYING GOES, " I TOLD YA SO"!!!!

If this story is correct, and I believe it probably is, then the tables are really begining to turn in the Middle East and that is not all good news.

At face value Israel may see this split of Hamas from Syria and most likely Iran as a good thing, but the rest of the word and in the end Israel must really start to worry about a Sunni / Shia conflict.

Yesterday I spoke of the possible split in Hamas and how it may happen suddenly.

It could very well be the radical side of Hamas has decided not to split and to keep their allegiance based on their Sunni faith; and thus side with the Muslim Brotherhood.

If this has truly become a reality and the split in Hamas did not take place, then Iran will go into a full fledged panic!

" No Hezbollah and no Iran"!!!!

A statement by the masses at Friday prayers is a shocking message to Iran and to the rest of the Gulf.

The problem could quickly become one for the Arab League and the GCC to figure out.

In their drive to support the Sunni of Syria, have they set in motion a Regional Sectarian war between the Sunni and the Shia?

Again the law of Second Order Effects comes into play.

Did the AL and the GCC ever truly stop to think about how this movement may get out of hand?

More importantly, was this a designed plan by the Gulf States to prevent the sequential spread of the Arab Spring along the Gulf States?

If we do not hear from the more radical side of the Hamas movement that they do not agree with this announcement, then things will move quickly.

Iranian funding will stop instantaneously, if it has no already done so!

I'm not sure there is anyone left in Syria for Al Assad to expel.

Iran without Hamas means an Iran without the Gaza for attacking Israel.

Iran without Al Assad to feed Hezbollah, means an Iran without Lebanon land to attack Israel from.

The loss of Hezbollah's hold on Lebanon, means an Iran without a proxy battlefield. 

Their common enemy is Israel, but the two sides, shia and Sunni, could be  about to enter a fight to see who will lead the movement!

As a side note; Turkey must quickly decide what this announcement means to them!

If they didn't have input in the ongoing conversations between the MB and the PA / Hamas, and I don't think they did, then they must react soon.

I want to end this discussion by saying just how important this announcement may be to the rest of us.

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=259264