CAN THE " ARAB SPRING" TAKE PLACE IN A RUSSIAN WINTER?

About a week ago, I read an editorial on why it was the Arab Spring was not taking hold in Russia.

Lots of talk about how the youth of Russia was so Nationalistic they would support anyone, like Putin, who would put Russia back on the World Stage.

To make a long story short, the author was arguing Russia simply was not in a position to

follow the Arab Spring path.

As soon as I was finished reading it, I think it was posted on Al Jazeera, I almost convinced myself he may be on to something.

Well, it is safe to say that I now firmly believe he was and is DEAD WRONG.

The elections in Russia spell a very..... very... troubling word for Mr Putin,, AKA the  KGB KING... and that word is  " Discontent"!!       

Discontent.. the key ingredient for a Russian Spring.... I don't know you will get much done in a Russian Winter....

For months now, Putin has been hard at work using the Arab Spring, like a few others, as a smokescreen to set his plan into motion.

If he was convinced a strain of the Tunisian Virus... Yes.. I still refer to the Arab Spring as the Tunisian Virus... then he has made a huge mistake.

If he believes that the Muslim Brotherhood doesn't have it's long range goals for the Muslim  " Stans" than he is even a bigger fool.

If he is about to shove his United Russia party down the throats of the Russian people, then he is making yet another huge mistake and he will also set the stage for the Russian version of the Arab Spring.

Many people are talking about how Putin is trying to turn back the hands of time.

Some are even talking about the " Empire" returning....

All that might be true.. .Putin is an Nationalist to the center of his heart.

The question becomes, can he place a stranglehold on the Russian government again yet at the same time fight off the Social Media driven Arab Spring movement?

Suddenly, Russian has become worthy of keeping an eye on..

One thing is for sure... Syria will give him some level of distraction...

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501714_162-57336102/as-putin-plans-to-stay-many-r

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/12/2011122115247505931.html

EGYPT'S VISION.. WAS IT REALLY THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD?

Well, it looks like the Islamist are going to take the majority control of the Egyptian Parliament.

We all know it has been predicted from the very beginning, but I wonder if the people of Egypt really understand what is taking place?

The combination of the MB and the other Islamist parties such as the Salafi are going to set the stage for the new Egyptian Constitution!

Is that what the people went to the streets for in Jan of this year?

Is that why they tossed out Mubarak.... to have Islamist leadership set the stage for the future of Egypt?

If the majority of the voting population indeed cast their votes in this fashion, then the answer is yes!!!

Isn't that what everyone in the West was praising???

The ARAB SPRING and the rise of Democracy!!!

When it is all said and done, is Egypt still going to be a House Divided?

Will the Egyptian Military accept Islamist control of the new, Democratically elected Parliament?

So... Tell me.... what is the good news from Egypt??????

Someone explain it to the people of Israel please!!!

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/12/2011121164541437543.html

HISTORY SET TO REPEAT ITSELF?

Two articles worthy of reading.

The first is an interview conducted over a year and a half ago with the
Author of the book, " A Time To Betray".

What is interesting about the interview is how the author talks about the
beginning of the Iranian Revolution and the high hopes the young left leaning
socialist had of forming a new Democracy in Iran!!

Sound familiar?

The " Arab Spring.. Persian style back in 1979!

The outcome paints a predictable picture for the Arab Spring.

I don't necessarily  agree with the Author's prediction of a conflict with Iran, but the storyline of how the youth of Iran were overrun by the Fundamentalist is a dire warning of today's events.

The second article, " Moroccan Wolf in Sheep's clothing", help us realize the
Iranian past is mostly likely the Arab Spring's future.

As I have been saying for sometime now... the Muslim Brotherhood is going to execute their plan slowly and methodically.

Morocco is just another step in the MB's journey.

The Shia must fall just as the " Infidels" must fall!!!!

Pay very close attention to the Author's discussion on the difference between Persians and Arabs...... It hits the nail on the head.



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http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Op-EdContributors/Article.aspx?id=247340

IRANIAN STUDENTS STORM BRITISH EMBASSY??? NOT SO FAST!

The only people who truly believe the people who stormed the British Embassy were really " Iranian Students" are the leaders of the Iranian government!

The Basij " Thugs" were placed in all the Universities throughout Iran shortly after the uprising in 2009.

Their mission is simple.... disrupt.. threaten... and watch the real students to prevent the beginning of another uprising.

Does anyone think for a minute that a real protest could take place in Iran to the level that an Embassy could be overrun and the Iranian Police not be beating and even shooting people?

Did anyone notice not a single picture of any of the Rioters being injured or carried away while being beaten like most normal students are treated in Iran?

So, it was a setup... a staged event.. I know nobody is stunned by that statement.

By labeling these Thugs as " Students", Iranian leadership thinks it is painting a picture of " solidarity" inside Iran.

Now, I would agree that the "Real" Iranian Students are patriotic enough to support their country if attacked, but I don't believe they would attack and occupy the British Embassy and even if they did, the concept of the Iranian government, who the typical College Student hates, working hand in hand with them is a little far fetched.

Short answer... it doesn't pass the smell test!

Ok, so why did this event take place?

The fact this event took place within hours of rockets being fired from Lebanese land.. land controlled by Hezbollah, cannot be overlooked.

Iran sent yet another message with these two events.

The price of meddling in Syrian affairs can and will be very high!

Don't think for a moment the  attack on the British Embassy was a true act of College Kids in Iran.. .far from it....

Yet, don't think for a moment young Iranians will not rally around their country, if not it's leaders, if Iran is attacked.

Yep.... It's complicated.

http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/meb44.html

AS SYRIA GOES.. SO GOES LEBANON... AND THAT'S THE PROBLEM!

Read some interesting comparative analysis of the impact the events could have on Lebanon.

The interesting part was who  wrote the editorials.

The short answer is both sides of the political fence in Lebanon, pro Syria and anti Syria, both have come to the same conclusion.

If Syria falls into a full scale Civil War, Lebanon will become a proxy battlefield.

The rockets fired today from inside Lebanon towards Israel is a dramatic reminder of how intertwined the entire region really is.

Perhaps this event today was more than just a few rockets fired into Israel.

Perhaps, as I commented last week, it's Iran reminding not just Israel, but everyone just how volatile things can be.

It's common knowledge that the Free Syrian Army is getting some level of support transiting through Lebanon.

Syrian efforts to stop this logistical flow can only make matters worse.

It's only a matter of time before the fighting taking place just inside the Syrian border happens just inside the Lebanese border..... more than just firing at a small group of people 

Rumors of " Safety Zones" continue to abound and the perception in Syria can only be one of immanent intervention.

It's that perception that will drive Al Assad's supports away from him and he knows this.

It's his understanding of this that will lead him to taking desperate actions thus fulfilling the "Rumors".

Sounds crazy, but it's more predestine that most people understand right now.

Can the region stay out of a Regional War???

Everyday could be the day and the stress on the Arab League and the GCC and the Israelis is unrelenting.

Ten months of stress....

How much more can the region withstand?

How many more times must we all hope the leaders of the region don't make the wrong decision?

Personally, I think we ran out of luck three or four months.

Most of the leadership of the region knows what is coming.. they are just trying to put it off as long as they can or perhaps just need more time to prepare.

The odds of us all waking up and suddenly seeing a happier... brighter day for the Middle East is a long .... .long ... long distant dream.

ARAB LEAGUE TAKES THE ACTION IT WANTED TO AVOID.

For years now, the AL has been seen as nothing more than a Paper Tiger or a group of Rich Puppets to the Oil industry.

It's easy to say the " respect" level provided to them was virtually nonexistent.

If ever there was a time for the AL to begin the transformation process leading to actually becoming a influential organization, it's now... during the Arab Spring....

If Western domination of the region is really coming to an end, and I think it is, then the AL must make every effort to finally become what the people of the region have long wished it would become... a respected... unified.. leadership council that must be listened to... short answer... taken seriously, not just by the world but the people in the region as well.

Now, how confident am I this will happen??? Not very!!!

It's hard to ask someone to describe a color they have never seen before.

It's hard to get a body of so called "leaders" to truly unify when "unity" is a word that has never taken hold in the entire region..

It's impossible for a group to decide the best "Democratic" path for one member when a majority of the members can't spell Democracy!

Not to give up hope on the AL being able to truly influence Syria and thus begin the process of becoming a functional body for the region, but their very first action that signified unity on the Syrian issue was a huge mistake.

To insinuate the AL was taken the sanctions option to prevent a Libyan style intervention was absolutely disastrous.

When the AL came up with this strategy, did they stop to think about the repercussions of what Iran and Russia and China might be?

I guess the more frightening answer is.... yes they did!!!!

Iran will waste little time announcing the AL is simply a puppet of the West and the warning of a pending intervention simply exposes the real plan.

The Region is at a point where one disastrous statement can lead to open warfare and the AL is simply too amateurish to deal with the region.

The economic impact of these new sanctions will be talked about in the next two days or so, but the message that was delivered with the sanctions announcement will be the real spark for further actions.

If anyone thinks Al Assad is going to change course now, they are living in a dream world.

He just heard the AL tell him there is now way out... no way out but perhaps sending the entire Middle East into war!

The AL has a long... long ways to go yet...  

A TROUBLING  SIGN FROM SYRIA.

Although the accusation of Israel being involved with the resistance movement in Syria is not new, the disturbing trend of Syrian officials making this statement can not be underestimated.

Most people are well aware of the age old tactic of creating an outside threat to ether justify the actions of a desperate government or distract the population of a troubled nation.

In Syria's case,  both probably apply.

With today's deadline, yet another one by the Arab League, set to expire, many are revisiting  the issue of Al Assad actually contemplating taking his country into an external conflict or, in a worse case scenario, supporting his own country sliding into a Civil War.

In the second case, I cannot imagine his Sunni Business class and Christian supporters allowing him to take this path.

I'm not sure they would even support him forcing Syria into a external conflict, although some of them would see this as a money making opportunity.  

" Military Officials" like the one referenced in this attached article do not " speak" without guidance.

The message has been there for several months now, but perhaps Al Assad is pushing the threat just a little harder.

It should not be overlooked and I don't think it is...

http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=246999