ANOTHER TENSE WEEK IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

A great deal has taken place since the last time I posted on this site, so let's get right down to it.

Several topics, so I will keep it simple and try to relate what they could mean to each other.

Egypt:

I had to say, " I told you so.... but I told you so"!!

If anyone really was foolish enough to believe the Fundamentalist were not going to shape the outcome of the elections... well they were simply dreaming.

As I said back in March of this year, the Muslim Brotherhood and those like them were going to wait until the right moment in time and then set the nation into yet another downward spiral.

The fact this has taken place just days before the election is no coincidence.

Fear has always made the everyday citizen vote for what they think is going to be safe in times of trouble and this is exactly what the MB is planning on.

The concept of letting Egypt virtually begin to burn and then offer a pathway out of the madness has been the plan for the MB from day one.

It's working  and I predict it's going to work next week.

The problem will come when the youthful, liberal, sectarians realize what is happening.

I think they already do.

I don't see the violence getting any better and as a matter of fact, it has a strong chance of getting much worse between now and the elections on the 28th.

I'm not sold they will take place as scheduled... not because of the MB or the Egyptian Military, but the youth who realize what is going on.

Egypt is in real... real... trouble.. and the Arab League has to be in a full panic.

They have way too much on their plate to deal with Egypt becoming destabilized yet again.

Syria:

Assad is watching events in Egypt and praying it only gets worse.

He is watching the economic, political circus in the US and saying a second payer.

These two events have shoved Syria, at least for now, from the top of the news headlines and both events have the potential to keep Assad on " page two.. below the fold line, for several days if not longer.

Assad could not have chosen a better time to thumb the AL in the eye over the

" Observer" issue.

The AL will simply not have time to deal with Assad's attitude while Egypt is burning.

Iran:

Like Syria, Iran could not have had events in Egypt happen at a better time.

Some might say Iran may have even had a hand in the flair up, but I'm not sold on that theory.

The MB is not known for working with Iran on " Distraction" concepts.. far from it!!!!

The Saber Rattling by Israel over the past week is noticed far and wide.

Would the Israelis decide when to or when not to attack Iran's operations based on the events taking place in Egypt?

Probably not, but it has to be a factor in the " go... no go" review.

As I have said before.. the issue between Iran and Israel is not if Israel decides to attack.... but if Iran determents Israel is going to attack.. really believes it's going to happen.

The whole Middle East and North Africa moves based on " perception" right now.

The GCC:

Yemen should be the topic they are working on the most, but it's not and will not be for sometime to come... that's good news for the current leadership in Yemen.

The GCC and the AL are closely linked and the topics of Iran, Israel.... Syria... Egypt is more than they can collectively handle.

What would be interesting to see is what is taking place between the AL.. GCC and Turkey...

Can the GCC and the AL risk letting the Ottoman's be the deciders of events in Syria?

Can the two of them allow Turkey to make the " deals" with Russia " others" on what should happen in Syria?

Ah... the days of sitting around and dragging on the Shisha pipe are long gone.

When you want to play " world leader".. when you want to demand "respect". the leisure time all but disappears.

It's what the leadership of Saudi learned years ago....

"Let the West pump the oil and worry about the oil... we will just sit in the piles of money"!

TWO STORIES THAT BOTH HAVE IMPORTANT OVERTONES:

One thing the media is getting right this morning is the dangerous change
this attack on the Syrian Intelligence HQ brings to the conflict.

The Syrian Intelligence and Secret Police are placed under the title of the
Syrian Air Force as a cover story for their existence.

DEBKA is most likely correct with its assumption of Arab League and GCC
support for this dramatic step.

Assad will waste no time attempting to turn this attack into a classic, "I
told you so", response.

He will leverage the event to show he is actually fighting an armed
resistance in his country and how can he be expected not to respond?

I've noticed that most of the defected Syrian Military members are back in
civilian clothes, thus making the " hit and blend" tactic far more effective.



It will not just be Assad that reacts to this dramatic increase to conflict
in Syria. (Actually...... this is the second time the Syrian Air Force has
been attacked)


Iran will respond in some tactical way soon.

Look for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, rocket attacks from Gaza to be an
option. ( Limited... but large enough to be a media distraction.)

The objective here will be to move the story back to the issue of Israel and the PA.

http://www.debka.com/article/21486/

Second Article:

I've been reading about this group and there is an
important issue that is lost in this commentary.

Notice how the FSA does not claim they are attacking the Syrian Military!

They are fighting the "Criminal Gangs loyal to Assad".... the Shabiha ... who
really are armed Thugs!

It's important for the FSA not be seen as a threat to the Syrian Military if
they plan on larger numbers of defections.

It's one thing to state you are only fighting the Shabiha, it's another to
insure your actual attacks and kills are not regular Syrian Military
members.. most of whom are Sunni!

The challenge for the Syrian Revolutionary Council / SRC / is they must make
every attempt to show the Arab League and the West that they can avoid a
Civil War in Syria.

Being able to control the FSA and what they target is the tactical issue the
SRC must overcome.

At the same time, Assad's Sunni Business class support is going to think long
and hard about the AL isolation of Assad.

To them, Syria is all about money and the AL in combination with the UN
isolating Assad will dramatically impact the ability to make money!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/11/16/world/meast/syria-unrest/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

OPTIMISM  IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS HARD TO COME BY!

To say most of the "opinions" published on Al Jazeera are one sided is somewhat of an overstatement, but this particular article was nearly palatable.

It's fairly obvious the US has placed a great deal of hope on being able to work with the Muslim Brotherhood... something I'm not holding my breath over.

For months now, I have made the point of reminding everyone the Arab Spring.. Yes I still refer to it as the " Tunisian Virus".. will not end with the same visions it started with.

The "trend" is for a more non sectarian post government and I don't see that trend changing  anytime soon.

Hope is a powerful humanistic trait that is all too  often the only gift people survive on.

For the people who started the movements in the Middle East and North Africa, hope is the cornerstone of their dreams.

The problem is,  throughout history,  hope has often been  the victim of bold aggression!

When the Arab Spring is over, my bet is  bold aggression will win the day. 

Hope!! Sometimes that's all we can do!!! 

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2011/11/20111112101016147679.html

THE ARAB LEAGUE AND KING ABDULLAH.. WHO ELSE WILL PILE ON?

Not only did King Abdullah add to the tension of the Arab League pulling back on Syria, but I even heard an official spokesperson for China state China is having second thoughts.

That would leave truly only Russia in the Syrian camp... besides the Syrian Masters in Iran that is!!!

Even Russia's spokesperson got the proverbial " third degree " from Al Jezeera today, getting him to admit most of Russia's concerns are purely economically driven.

So, is Assad getting to the end of his rope?

Of all the things that have been said about the events of Syria, none of them are more damaging than the reaction of the Arab League.

Now, the AL is not the most accredited organization in the world... as a matter of fact most consider it to be laughable most of the time.

The problem for Syria is, the AL does impact the perceptions of many Arabs and that is what the people inside Syria who still back Assad will worry about the most.

For months just about anyone who knows the Middle East has taken one basic line on the Syrian conflict.... as long as the Sunni Businessmen and other financial supporters of Assad stay behind him.... as long as they truly believe that a post Assad Syria is more disasturous than a brutal Syria... Assad will stay in power.

Here is the crack in the armor..  the crack that may crumble Assad's world.

When the AL starts to openly pull away from Assad... when the " collective" of the Arab world gives up on him.. even those who know having him in power is better than having

the unknown of a sectarian conflict in Syria... then Assad could very easily panic... and if he panics... so could Iran..

Here is the real danger of the actions of the AL.

One would hope the AL thought deeply about the second order effects of their public statement on Syria.

As paranoid as Assad and Iran probably are right now.. after the actions of the AL... if Assad even begins to think his true backers in Syria are going to pull away from him... well... all hell could break lose.

Phone calls telling him where he could live and what " others" might do to help him decide to leave will probably not change the course in the near future.

Let's watch over the next few days and see if any of his true supporters inside Syria show signs of dumping him or leaving the country..

Look for Iran to blame the AL rulling on the West.. namely the US and if that doesn't float .. look for Iran to blame the Sunni / GCC influence on the AL..

At that point.. we will be very near a real emergency in the Middle East.

SO WHAT IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH IRAN / ISRAEL?

So, lets keep this as simple as possible.

Iran's possibilities:

The only way Iran takes offensive action against Israel is if Iran's leadership feels they have nothing to lose.

Nothing to lose based upon a pending assault on their Nuclear Program.

Nothing to lose based upon a pending Arab Spring type of event inside Iran.

Iran may utilize the Israeli option to word off a internal governmental conflict.

The relationship between the Persian Nationalist and the Muslim Zealot is only getting worse.

Attacking Israel without inflicting a crippling blow to the mainland of Iran is the most likely tactical course of action by them.

A proxy war that can be ratcheted up or down by Iranian leadership would be the objective.

Keeping Israel from declaring " total warfare" on Iran would have to be the strategy to national survival. 

Having Israel inflicting casualties on non Iranian actors such as the Palestinians and the Lebanese would be a goal of the Iranian government.

Limiting the destruction inside Iran, thus preventing internal criticism would be another consideration.

In short; Iran has very little to gain and a tremendous amount to lose by initiating hostilities with Israel.

If their survival as a nation is at stake, then logically all bets are off.

Israel:

Lets start with the most basic concept.

Israel is never going to allow Iran to obtain a working nuclear weapon!

The most logical course of action would be for Israel to scale their actions, but unlike Iran who has little to gain by initiating hostilities, Israel will have to base their survival by initiating action against Iran.

A limited First Strike  with the honest warning of what Israel is willing and able to do if follow on attacks are called for is the most logical event sequence.

Iran may have to " save face" to some degree, but they will not risk their national survival on  "saving face".

Israel will have some level of acceptance for " Quid Pro  Quo " and they will probably make that known to the Arab  League and the US.

How bad things become after Israel's Limited First Strike, is entirely up to the lack of support from the rest of the world towards Iran.

Words are just that.... words and Israel will accept damning words for their actions.

I truly believe the Arab League and the rest of the world understands this.

Most of all so does Iran...

Who are their "real friends"?

In reality, they don't have any and this... Israel knows or should know.

The preverbal "woods" of this issue are deep and the odds of getting out peacefully are not very good. 

ISRAEL'S TACTICAL REVIEW:

The combinations of what Israel could execute are so complex it would take a book just to begin to cover the issue.

As I did with Iran, I will stick to two major, tactical issues.

The tactics of a limited response:

The tactics of a total / fatal response:

Tactics / limited:

A " limited First Strike" option for Israel could be based on limiting civilian causalities and at the same time damaging the nuclear program in a significant manner. 

Avoiding the functional nuclear power plant, yet striking the facilities the IDF has identified as being part of the  nuclear weapons development would most likely be the most rational targeting concept.

This tactical targeting concept would allow Israel and honestly the rest of the world to control the escalation of the conflict while still giving  Israel the ability to take further action based upon Iran's response. Commonly known as a " Scalable response".

The danger and it's a real danger, of this concept is the " Near Target" reaction options of Iran's " Proxy" support.... Hezbollah... 

Even a limited strike by Israel on Iranian facilities could lead to an immediate retaliation by enemy forces virtually a mile away.

This " retaliation" might also be " limited" and that would be the challenge for Israel... to judge the acceptance level of a retaliation strike without ratcheting up the event uncontrollably.

The good news is, Israel has a great deal of experience in making this judgment call.  

Ok, the bottom line is this.... a " Limited First Strike" by Israel many not achieve the total destruction of the Iranian nuclear weapons program, but that only matters if that is the real strategic goal!

If the Israel goal is to make Iran and the world realize Israel is willing to do whatever it takes to insure it's survival, yet it's actions allowed the world one last chance to bring about change.. then this goal could very well be successful!

Total Response / Unlimited / asymmetric  conflict:

Before I get started, even though I used the term, "Unlimited" in the title of this section, I will leave out the option we all understand Israel has that is never spoken of.  

Why?

The results of this action are two things:

1.  Easy to explain tactically .. Iran is destroyed as a functional nation.

2.  The historical course of the Middle East would be totally unpredictable.

So, let's look at the " other" option Israel has for a Total Response.

Tactically speaking, Israel would most likely start such an event with a ballistic missile assault on key targets... targets that may not be based on Iran's nuclear program, but more likely based on Iran's ability to strike back  at Israel.

Short answer.... Tactically limited Iran's ballistic missile response to Israel.

A crippling fist strike would not be limited by a strategic political goal of giving the world time to convince Iran to change their course.

Achieving Air Supremacy of Iran would be the near simultaneously next tactical goal.

If Israel has learned anything from US actions in the Middle East in the past twenty years, it's the concept of Air Supremacy.

Destroy Iran's Ballistic capabilities and achieve Air Dominance. 

Air Dominance would be required over not just Iran, but Lebanon, Sinai  and perhaps Syria..  Depending on Assad's wisdom of picking the right time to abandon Iranian leadership... Yep.. ... Something the Saudi's and Jordan and Egypt might very well influence.  that is if Assad is still in power by then.... 

Air Supremacy over Iran would allow follow on air strikes at the same time making the Iranian government realize the critical position they would be in.

Neutralizing ground threats from inside Lebanon and Gaza and perhaps Syria would be the job of the IDF ground forces.

This is something they know how to execute all too well...

Simply put, the IAF's job would be Iran and the ground forces would take on the mission of the ground threat.

These are complex, large scale operations that would be very... very.. .difficult to hide from Iranian observers.... and spies!

If Israel's intention was to do a modern day concept of a " no notice " attack, it  will have to have the art of mobilization timed to flawless levels.

The easier and more traditional way of achieving this readiness is what was commonly called " Wire Runs" in the Korean Area of Operation.

Standing up your forces... pushing them to the edge of the launch points and then standing them back down...

This concept is exhausting.. expensive .. and still leads to very nervous enemies who by the way can duplicate the tactic.

SUMMARY:

Israel can make ether of these concepts work... limited... unrestricted...

Their final decision will most likely be based upon how dire they feel the circumstances have become.

What are the odds of Iran or Israel attacking each other and what tactic is the most likely course the world could see?

That's a good discussion for Friday!

THE TACTICAL SIDE OF THE CONFLICT:

Tonight, I will go into detail as to the tactical issues Iran would face confronting Israel.

I will address both First Strike and Retaliation issues.

On Thursday, I will cover Israel's side of this topic.

IRAN'S TACTICS:

First Strike / Limited:

The blinding obvious would be the utilization of Hezbollah and other radical group's capabilities; thus reserving actual Iranian assets for counter actions or escalation activities.

Depending on the skill level of the unit members, a night operation would be the most dramatic and cause the highest level of anxiety in Israel.

As for the type of attacks, if Iran is wishing to build the event based upon the concept of Israel responding disproportionately, thus providing Arab Public sentiment behind the attacks, then  we would see the typical rocket, mortar actions but at a much higher level.

 Again, tactically speaking, this would allow Iran to develop an scaleable conflict while at the same time attempting to control the public support in the Arab world.

The attacking units have learned a great deal since the events of 2006 and 2008.

Israel's ability to overwhelm and neutralize the attacking units would be a difficult task for at least the initial phase of the conflict.

Mobile and disguised teams in numbers large than Israel is use to tracking, day to day, would pose a significant challenge.

The fact this attack could initiate at night would only make the response more difficult.

If Iran's goal was not based on civilian casualties, but simply winning the initial phase of the conflict with public opinion and perception, it would be a devastating start for Israel.

The memories of 2006 and 2008 would be topic number one for the media.

" Has Israel learned anything after the events of 2006 and 2008"?

That would be the core of what the media would ask.

The next real tactical advantage this scenario would have for Iran would be the issue of fighting from a defensive position.

This is not new to Hezbollah or other radical groups and when you stack " hit and run" tactics on top of the defensive concept, the initial phase of the conflict will almost assuredly go to Iran.

As I stated once before, the third tactic of this scenario could be temporarily neutralizing Israel Air Force Bases.

If the attacking units can place missiles onto the key airfields, just enough to interrupt runway operations, the IAF would be shaken badly.

Now, launching aircraft under attack is something any skilled air force can accomplish and I can assure you this would be the case in Israel.

The problem becomes if the runway takes damage.

Hezbollah and the Qud are easily skilled enough to understand the value of having these IAF sites under observation.

It is not out of the question these sites could come under ground attack from small tactical teams.

Actually, this concept would probably prove far more disruptive than simple Missile strikes.

An airfield under a special teams attack in the middle of the night would be a chaotic event to say the least.

Getting the penetration of such teams close enough to the IAF installations would be the hardest part of this concept, but the Qud an Hezbollah are skilled fighters and those chosen for such a mission would have planned in great detail.

So, the idea of a night operation that is scaleable based on missile, rocket, mortar attacks, probably as a diversion as specialized teams engage the IAF sites is a dangerous scenario for just about any military.

Starting a conflict without direct Iranian involvement, at least not until someone proves the Qud was part of the specialized units attacking the IAF, and yet putting Israel on their heels, for the first few hours, would be a tempting planning concept.

Here comes the problem with a " Limited" attack... the Israel response will most likely not be " Limited".

Israel has sworn never to go down the road of the 2006 2008 events again!

So, based on that, lets look at the next basic, tactical option for Iran.

The Tactics of First Strike / Asymmetric Operations:

Think of an attack that again takes place in the middle of the night... that has long range missiles and special tactics teams attacking all across the nation of Israel all at one time.

Getting the tactical teams into position would simply be a matter of overrunning typically lightly manned...outpost that are not configured for true "force on force" attacks.

Depending on when Iran decided to initiate this type of attack, lets say an attack from what is known as a " cold start"... no public warnings... no mobilization operations inside Iran. virtually no indication of pending hostilities, these outpost along the key border points would not be prepared for indirect and special operations assaults.

I'm not sure if anyone really has any idea of how many " Hostiles" are already inside the wire of Israel, but for the sake of argument, let's assume there are far more than what would be needed to add to the hysteria of a Missile, Rocket, force on force border attack in the middle of the night.

The concept of follow on attacks out of Lebanon and the Sinai by skilled Commando units, not just lightly trained kids who are ready to die for Allah in the middle of the night would be a nightmare come true for the people of Israel... it would be a nightmare come true for the rest of the civilized world.

Commando units with pre designated targets such as power stations.. rail yards.. and cell towers. would insure the panic in the country grew with each passing hour.

Long range Iranian missiles impacting inside Israel would be the first indication this event was unlike any in Israel's past!

Again, the issue of the IAF sites being temporarily neutralized would be devastating to the IDF.

The simple fact is, if properly executed, such an asymmetric attack would place Israel in a panic mode that would probably result in   Tehran becoming the first retaliatory target of the conflict.

The concept of striking Lebanon... Hezbollah locations along with other radical groups working out of Gaza would most likely fall to secondary... follow on targeting.

The first response, once the IDF confirmed long range Iranian missiles, would most likely lead to the destruction of key, pre designated strategic targets sites in Iran.

Tactically deescalating this type of an event would be virtually impossible.

Where this would lead in the next several hours would be almost as frightening as the event itself.

As I said the other day, I don't believe most people understand how dangerous a conflict between Iran and Israel could be for the entire region and the world economy.

Tomorrow, I will look at the Israel tactics of a First Strike..... limited and Fatal Blow..