A SURVEY THAT TELLS FAR MORE THAN MOST PEOPLE THINK.

Again tonight, I am going to continue to look at the issue of Syria and Iran as it continues to be the most important and volatile issue in the Middle East.

 Although the DoS conducts a series of detailed surveys on Middle Eastern
societal trends, this one presents a timely look into one of the most
volatile issues taking place in that part of the world..... Syria!!!

The opportunity for Iran to save Assad is quickly coming to a close and
Iran's leadership knows that.

The fact the two Iranian leaders are in a state of conflict only insures that
decisions on how to react to Syrian evens will remain uncoordinated and
poorly thought out.

If the time has come for Iran to abandon Assad, rather than create an
external threat to the region to divert the attention from Syria, then true
panic could be about to take control in Iran.

Did the situation with Assad create the Assassination plot?

Was it an attempt to divert the world's attention from Syria?

It doesn't seem logical this would work, but Iran is becoming more illogical
with each passing day.

Rumors of Iran looking for some new "working" relationship with an Assad
replacement has been flying around the Middle East for over two months.

Iran has and probably continues to talk to Turkey about the future of Syria;
Assad name is becoming less of the center piece of any negotiations.

Iran must look for some common ground with Turkey if it is to stand a chance
of controlling the future leadership of Syria.

Frankly, I think the time of Iran calling the shots in Syria are all but
over.

What Iran has to settle for now is agreeing with Turkey on what the next
Syrian government should look like.

The problem will be the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, once again, will be the
issue for Iran.

The Sunni and Shia  dynamic  sets the tone.

What should terrorize Iran more than anything is not just the pending loss of
Syria, but the fact the Arab Spring will spread from Syria to Iran itself!

Just look at the survey results and it is easy to see the future of Iran's
current leadership.

I have said this for months, but Ahmadinejad only chance is to let the Arab
Spring come to Iran and align himself with the Persian Nationalist Youth
Movement.

He will have to make a desperate attempt to abandon the Khamenei leadership.

He will have to show a future for "Persians" that speaks to the dreams of
young, educated Iranians not the Mullah's and the repressive past!

He will have to do this knowing he will not only alienate the Shia, but the
Sunni Syrian Muslim Brotherhood as well.

I don't think he can do it.... but someone in Iran might!

Who becomes that someone and can this course of action take place before
Khamenei decides to crush the movement or distract the region with a proxy
war?

If Khamenei waits too long, the Civil / Sectarian / War in Syria will be
underway; it actually already is!

This is why Syria is important.

This is why the events in Syria far outweigh the issues in Egypt... Libya.... ect .... even the Palestinian Statehood issue; for the moment!

Here is my bet....

Khamenei makes a move on Ahmadinejad and then quickly creates a crisis for
Saudi and the GCC...

He can't go to war with Israel.. that would destroy Iran and all of it's dreams both of a Persian Empire and or, depending on what leader's eyes your are looking through, an Iranian Caliph!

Khamenei can chose a proxy war with the GCC , namely Saudi, but even that runs the risk of spreading and escalation into Iran's destruction.

  The bottom line is this; the Middle Eastern fuse is almost to the bomb and this survey proves it.

http://aai.3cdn.net/e0279d08c84eee1ebf_iqm6b1t2w.pdf

GORILLA TACTICS IN A PENDING CIVIL/ SECTARIAN WAR!

Take good look at this picture from Syria.

This is not what the entrance to  a city that is dealing with, " small bands of armed thugs" should look like.

This is the look of a city that reflects a pending sectarian conflict.

For weeks now the stories of checkpoints based on clans and or religious beliefs have grown in numbers and details.

This picture, as most pictures do, tells a thousand words.

Sandbags are not the tools of "insurgents"!

Sandbags are a sign of a Syrian Military checkpoint.

A military checkpoint that knows it can see more than just a random drive by shooting from a " thug" in a vehicle.

The mounded dirt is a vehicle denial barrier.

These are not the actions of a " Policing effort to counter a few " thugs".

What this does indicate is the Syrian Military is trying to hold " Hostile" territory.

That means they do not control the area they are in.

They may occupy parts of it, but they are under siege and the bunker is their fighting position.

If what Syria was dealing with was nothing more than " thugs" roaming the streets of otherwise peaceful cities, there would be no dug in fighting position.

Defectors from the Syrian Military grow in numbers with each passing day and each time they do so, the add to the collective intelligence the Opposition needs to make decisions .

 Just imagine if a young Sgt or Officer defects.

The information they have of troop strength, unit capabilities and unit locations are all compromised.

If these defecting members are brining unit equipment with them, not just weapons, but radios, then the issue is even more dire for the Syrian Military.

Bottom line:

This is a very telling picture and it's unlike most I've seen coming out of  Syria.

The Arab League is meeting in the next twenty-four hours on the Syrian topic and they know all too well time is running out.

PS. I wonder how many Turkish " Military Advisors" are inside Syria?

If you think not.... .think again..

If you find one, he will have a Saudi Debit Card in his wallet. 

WILL ASSAD PAY THE PRICE FOR IRAN'S ACTIONS?

Last night and in fact several times in the past two months I have mentioned the theory of Assad becoming the Saudi target in order to strike back at Iran.

Lets take a minute and review this topic given I truly believe this " theory" is quickly becoming reality.

What facts add up to from the Saudi viewpoint?

The Arab Spring:

  It's been a frightening issue from the very beginning with Saudi convinced Iran has tried and will continue to try to " weaoponize" the concept against the Gulf States.

All Saudi has to do is look to Bahrain and Yemen and  suddenly Iranian " plots" show up in every conversation.  ( Not far from the truth)

 The Assad Factor:

Saudi knows all too well how desperate Iran is over the Syrian issue.

Paranoia and desperation are dangers ingredients in the hands of a unstable government such as Iran.  This one keeps the Saudi leadership up at night!!! It's the "fuel" behind the Iranian plot against the Gulf States.

As I have said time and time again.... Iranian / Persian / dreams are all but dead with the loss of a buffer partner in Syria. 

Saudi leadership realizes the domino event in Lebanon if Assad falls.

The Palestinian Statehood issue:

Trying to keep this issue from blowing up at a time when Saudi and it's Gulf State partners don't need any additional events is a top priority for Saudi.

Knowing that, Iran fingerprints are virtually all over the issue and Saudi has to work daily to counter Iranian involvement on yet another issue that could end up in Saudi's backyard.

Turkey:

Anyone who thinks there is a pending love story between Iran and Turkey / Persia / Ottoman Empires in the making / is simply not a student of history.

Saudi's interaction with Turkey is a delicate balance between future Sunni / Muslim Brotherhood goals and Iranian reaction to the Brotherhood.

How does Saudi insure  a " Two Front" counter to Iranian desires in the Middle East..... Turkey!!!!  But.... Nothing in this world is free and the Ottomans' have their own visions for the region. A careful future game for the Saudi government.

So, in the game of Middle Eastern power struggles..... who has the advantage?

The issue is clearly becoming one  of  Persian ... Arab... Ottoman concepts with all three attempting to highjack  the Muslim Faith! Sound familiar ??? What's the old saying about History????

Ok, here is what I think the real advantage is..... MONEY!!!

If we look at the rhythm of the world right now, the undeniable fact is this..

A large part of the world is feeling left out...

The " Social Injustices" or "Economic Imbalances" make up a large part of the world perception right now.

Social Media and Social Networking is having an impact on daily world events far beyond what any Think Tank can possibly comprehend right now.

So, who has the advantage in the Middle East?

Saudi!!

Remember the " real" advantage .... MONEY...

Can Saudi buy it's problems to the point they don't happen?

I've been there when they have successfully made this happen even when I thought it was an outrageous concept.

Social unrest is the key weapon for Iran right now and Saudi can buy their way out of trouble.

Pushing the Peninsula Shield Forces, a concept I know well,  into Bahrain was not to send a message to the Shii of Saudi or Bahrain, but a warning to Iran itself.

Iran will not get the results it is looking for in Saudi by convincing a few Shii to take to the streets in the  Eastern part of the country... even with the help of Iranian instigators.

As soon as Iran realizes this is a flawed plan, the next step will have to be taken....

Violence and it will have to be somewhere rather than in the Eastern Part of Saudi..... hence the issue with Yemen...

Ok... it comes down to this... It's a race... 

Who strikes first?

The Saudi push on Assad or the Iranian plot in Yemen and Bahrain?

My bet is Assad is going to lose!

In typical Saudi style... the fingerprints will not belong to a Saudi.... but the money will!!!

"The Enemy of my Enemy".. It rules the Middle East....

Keep an eye on Turkey...

Keep an eye on Hamas ...

Assad sees Assassins all around him... if not physically.. politically ... and their paycheck is cashed in Riyadh!!!

BATTLE LINES DRAWN FOR SAUDI AND IRAN.

With the official announcement of US forces withdrawing from Iraq, Saudi may have the "proxy" battlefield it needs to confront Iran.

Now, most of us realize the border of Iraq and Kuwait will continue to be what it has been since 1990; an ammo dump and jump off point for US forces if needed.

It's is also well known the US and Allied forces have kept the confrontation between Sunni and Shia in Iraq under control for several years now, even as Saudi tried to keep the fire burning.

Saudi has had ample time to build it's plan for confrontation in Iraq and I am sure this plan, whatever it may be, will  go into operational mode by the end of the year.

For all the talk of how Iran will  " call the shots" in Iraq, Saudi will not sit back and let Iran have it's way.

Saudi will not allow Iran to open a Two Front Campaign on Saudi, Yemen and Iraq.

If Saudi's resolve was somewhat passive, that all but died when  the US exposed the alleged plot to assassinate  Saudi's Ambassador.

And finally, the  possible new future leadership of Saudi, Prince Nayef bin Abdulaziz will see Iran as far more of a threat than even the current leadership.

None of this is taking place in a vacuum, or you would hope it's not!

What will be difficult for the US and the West is not letting this future proxy conflict get too far out of control or lead to actual regional war.

When you stack this Saudi, Iranian growing tension on top of the issues of social unrest and weekend state governments, it's easy to see just how volatile the whole region remains.

As for the Iranian leadership, if they, and I don't think the two of them are doing a great deal of joint strategizing right now, believe for a minute the Iranian plans for Iraq are going to execute as planned,  then they are sucking on the Shisha pipe too hard!

I will go back to my comments last week about Saudi and Syria.

Assad knows all too well how the alleged plot on the Saudi Ambassador will impact his survival.

He and Syria are " Target Number One" for Saudi.

Iran's worries are only going to get worse.

IS ERDOGAN POINTING THE FINGER AT ASSAD?

After the events of this week, it's easy to see how Turkey's ego was damaged by the PKK attacks.

When a country is in  the process of convincing the world they are a rising regional powerbroker, it's  a painful event take a brazen attack such as this.

In that part of the world, the message is often inside the "message"; so much so many look for the implied statement more than they pay attention what is actually said.

In that regard, one has to wonder what the message Erdogan was delivering yesterday or more importantly, who was he addressing it to?

The attached news story may be on to something when it mentions the possible link between Syria and the PKK.

The question becomes, would Assad be so bold as to support a PKK attack on Turkey?

Why not?

What does Assad have to lose?

If the answer is yes, then the next question is why?

Is Assad letting Turkey and Erdogan know Syria can create just as many difficulties for Turkey as Turkey can create for Syria?

Don't forget all the stories from this week about arms flow from Lebanon and Turkey into Syria.

Add on top of that, Turkey hosting and supporting the new somewhat recognized government in exile " SNC".

Finally, what better way to distract the Kurds who may be about to support the revolt in Syria than to have them crushed by their real enemy.. the Turks!

It's hard to tell what exactly is going on, but one thing is for certain, Turkey and Erdogan are desperate to show how they can handle this event and do so professionally and quickly.

Winter operations in that part of the world are less than ideal and the PKK knows this all too well.

Turkey may have to hold off until Spring to conduct a protracted operation and a lot will have changed in that region of the world by then.

Assad pulls a powerful threat away from the events in Syria by setting Turkey up to crush the PKK.

So, back to the question of what's in it for Assad to have supported this attack?

I think we have answered that question.

The question,  and it's the harder one, is how could he have pulled this off?

It's not like the PKK is on a first name bases with the Syrian Military.

Oh ya... I forgot the " Golden Rule" of that part of the world....

" The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend". with my own added subset... " Until I need to betray my Friend"!!!

Side note:

I see the Iranian FM is making a trip to Turkey on Friday the 21st of October!

I wonder if they are trying to mend fences before Turkey shows Iran / the Persians / how the new Ottoman Empire deals with it's enemies?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=80508

WHY 1,000 FOR 1????

A recurring question wrapped with tons of speculation continued today.

Why would Israel trade 1000 prisoners for one young Soldier captured over five years ago?

Here is an answer I am skeptical of, but if true would make real sound logic.

If Israel knew they were about to be involved in a major conflict and they knew this you man was alive, they may do whatever they needed to get him out of the future battlefield.

His death would be all but assured in a regional war.

Couple this with the fact he had become a national symbol of Israeli dedication to it's youth and citizens!

Then add the concept of turning lose 1000 enemies that will not have the opportunity to inflict harm on Israel again before the new conflict starts  and we may have a very dire answer to a very perplexing question.

I am not sure I go along with this theory, but it does have some tactical value.

My theory of Israel trying it's best to show it is willing to work with the Palestinian people is the one I will stick with for now, but the conflict theory does worry me.

CREDIT, CONTROL AND EXPLOITATION.... OCCUPY GETS "COMPLICATED!

The last time I referenced this " Occupy" issue, it was, in the eyes of the media, still just a good excuse to have a campout and sing old songs!

The media caught on quickly they were underestimating what was going on and agencies like CNN changed their attitude on how to cover the story.

It's now interesting to see the groups that are trying to find a way to turn the event into an advantage.

The US Democratic party is trying it's best to fold " Occupy" into a 2012 Campaign weapon, but I'm not sure all the groups involved are going to go along with the idea.

The US Republican party seems to still be gathering information to frame their response as a collective, although a few members have jumped on the media bandwagon and labeled the movement as anti Capitalism College Kids looking for a good time.  

The US Democratic party is going to need to be very careful with attaching their name to the movement.

If groups like the World Anarchist meld into the " Occupy" event, and they are trying with each passing day, then US politicians could see their affiliation with the movement virtually blow up in their faces.  

In the realm of "Exploitation" Iran seems to have been the first to strike.

Iran's Information Operations machine was quick to utilize the " Occupy" event as a weapon to word off the Ambassador Plot.

The statements about the US simply trying to distract the  world from the problems the

" Occupy" movement posses for the US was a brilliant counter by Iran.

It may not have sold to many people in the US, but it was meant for the population of the Middle East and the youth of Europe and in that regard it worked masterfully.

I find it interesting that some of the movement purest are reluctant to attach a overall "cause" to the event.

Internal power struggles with those that are passively attempting to Hijack the movement are  becoming more and more common.

This should sound a little like familiar   if you live in Egypt.... Remember.. some said the Occupy event was nothing more than an extension of the Arab Spring.

I was talking to some folks Saturday night and an interesting opinion came up.

In the early 1930's the root of all evil in Germany were the Jewish Bankers and Company owners.

Everything that was wrong with Germany... everything they had lost... jobs... houses.. savings.. ect...ect... was the direct result of the Jewish people of Germany.. or at least that was the story the German people were told by what would become the   new government of Germany.

It is more than a little frightening to see a particular section of society be labeled for all the world's ills.

It's easy for a young Arab Muslim to associate " Banks" with the Jewish People.

Is this insinuating the " Occupy" movement could become an movement of hate?

Well, is it possible a movement can be hijacked?

Ask the Students and the Socialist who brought down the Shaw of Iran!

If you don't know the history of what happened in Iran, then you need to read.

Some things are far too coincidental for paranoid members of the world population.

The 1930s are not that far removed...  Some are still alive and remember how it all started.

Remember the old saying about " history".  

Is it ok to demonize the Banks and Big Business??

Who knows!!

Where could it all lead???

A frightening question.