SNAP SHOT / OCT 9TH 2011

Here is a simplistic review of what is taking place this week in the Middle East and the spin off event in the US, "Occupy Wall Street".

Egypt:

For months now I have beat the drum on how the MB simply needs social disorder to continue right up to the elections in Egypt.

The more the people of Egypt worry their country may never return to any level of normalcy, the more likely they are to vote for a group, such as the MB groups, that promise social order equality.

The violence in the past two days is just anther example of what the MB needs to happen in Egypt.

What the MB doesn't want and will not stand for is the Egypt Military to continue to push the elections down the road.

The longer it takes, the less power the MB will gain and that is their fear.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/10/2011109155853144870.html

Saudi:

The violence of the past week with the Shii groups in the Northeast are not accident.

The problem for Saudi will continue to be the overreaction and the heavy-handedness of the Saudi Police and National Guard.

Both of these are exactly what Iran is counting on.

Don't look for the Saudis to do anything that will actually defuse these events anytime soon.

How far they go and where they lead to is really up to the Shii organizers and trust me, these are organized events.

Bahrain:

The events in Bahrain go hand in hand with the problem Saudi has with the Shiite population in Saudi.

The difference is, Bahrain managed to do exactly what I would count on the Saudis doing... killing someone that provides a rally cry for the Shii population.

The riots in Bahrain this week are nothing new, but the government is taking two steps backwards by killing the 16 year old boy.

Just when it looked like Bahrain was going to defuse the trial of the Doctors issue, they turn around and drop the hammer on the Shii again.

Foolish and I'm not sure how fast Saudi would coming running to their aid this time given the pending issue  in that region of Saudi Arabia.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/10/20111071362401501.html

Syria:

The on again... off again... Syrian National Council ( SNC) may finally be getting some traction.

I say based on Assad officially warning other nations not to recognize the SNC or have any dealings with them.

  What could be more than interesting is the issue of who Assad was really addressing with this announcement.

Lets imagine for a minute he was talking to Iran! Yes . Iran....

Lets assume Assad has fears of Iran abandoning him, as they should be.

Assad could make such a bold statement and if challenged by Iran, could simply respond, " I was addressing Turkey and the other GCC countries".

The other issue that would be more than ironic, but would fit the history of the Middle East, would be if Iran "assumed" the message was meant for them.

Paranoia is a daily fact of life in the Middle East and Iran leads the way on living off of paranoia.

So, what chances does the SNC really have?

Well, it's better than what they tried to come up with two months ago in Turkey, but it's a long ways from pushing Assad from power.

To do that, they must convince the Sunni Business class and the Kurds and finally key military leaders that Syria's future doesn't have to be a sectarian civil war.

If they can do this and do so without Assad taking action first, then maybe... just maybe they have a chance.

One thing is for sure... the EU and the US are going to maintain a real "hands off" attitude for the foreseeable future.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/10/2011109105926786426.html

Oh ya.... this was a huge mistake that I will be watching this week.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=79965

Turkey:

It appears the Turkish blustering has calmed down in the past week.

As the Ottoman Empire was out telling the world how they were prepared to be the keepers of the whole Middle Eastern Region, they suddenly discovered how vulnerable their economy actually was becoming. 

Telling the people of Turkey they are the future of the region is one thing... letting them see the value of their savings start falling apart is quite  another.

As for the drumbeat of how Turkey feels about Israel, it could be the brash talk was beginning to worry people who rely on calm waters and trade and the word got back to the Ottoman Emperor!

Turkish navel vessels playing cat and mouse with the Israeli navy was not getting them anywhere, coupled with the Egyptian MB sticking a finger in the Ottoman's eyes.

All in all, Turkey decided to slide off the FrontPage for now..

How long that last is anyone's guess, but I would say we will hear from them real soon on some emotional topic.

It's hard to play world leader and stay off the news for too long.

Israel:

Midnight oil has to be burning every night in the leadership offices as the plans for the pending UNSC vote unfold.

Even if the US is successful in preventing 9 members from bring the Palestinian vote issue up to a vote, they will still get blamed for the lack of action.

This will be the classic, " Damned if you do and damned if you don't".

Abbas knows this and will not move from his position.

Right now, Abbas is ridding the popularity wave with most of the Palestinian people, but it is interesting to hear the discontent already growing.

It is becoming more and more evident many of the Palestinian people are wondering if Abbas vision of the Palestine is truly the vision they have.

The fact that many of them are questioning why the issue came up without consulting the general public has not been answered to their satisfaction.

If everything goes Abbas's way, will the people of Palestine simply fall in line and march to his drum?

Don't bet on it.

Hamas will be the last to settle for a sectarian government run by technocrats.

the fact of the matter is, Hamas is going to use the failure of the UNSC issue to try and deal a death blow to Abbas's government.

Abbas is a Hero in a lot of place  right now, but Gaza is not one of them

Everyone seems to have their "plan" for a post UNSC vote and the Hamas plan focal point is the downfall of Abbas.

So, what is Israel planning?

Survival.

I was not kidding two weeks ago when I posted it was ill advised for the UN to back Israel into a corner.

Voting for something that makes you " feel good" and then finding out you have set the stage for a regional catastrophe is a classic UN event.

Violence in the West Bank and in other parts of the Middle East are probably going to be the results of the UNSC issue.

Who allows it to get out of hand is the issue that needs to be addressed.

If I was Hezbollah or Hamas, I would be very careful with painting a picture of how they are ready to "battle" Isreal...

The next battle the two of them witness with Israel is going to be unlike any they will remember.

Don't forget... Virtually none of the members of Hamas or Hezbollah were even alive for the 67 or 73 wars in the Middle East.

They simply have no idea what they could be facing if they back Israel into a corner.

 Occupy Wall Street:

I think I've read two dozen stories comparing " Occupy Wall Street" to the Arab Spring.

Most of this is wishful thinking on the parts of the Social Revolutionaries and Anarchist groups.  

I spent this week telling people around me the real issue to watch, as was with the Arab Spring, was not what was being said at the protest, but who was trying to take advantage of them.

You have the usual list of suspects such as Mr. Chavez.

As you would expect in a truly Democratic society, political parties began the process of taking responding to the event.

Having the unions show up is a simple attempt by one party in the US to get out in front of the movement and do their best to turn it's energy into a campaign issue.

I don't see how this event could not be a campaign issue going into 2012 for the US , but that depends on what else goes on in the world over the next eight months.

As I stated last week, the timing of a possible second recession world wide, will only make this " Occupy" movement more volatile.  

Another similarity it will have with the Arab Spring will be the idea of some organizations, perhaps several, trying to capture, Hijack, the movement for their goals.

Social disorder in the US on a scale the country has not seen since the 60s is the dream of a few of our enemies.... and they are hard at work trying to make this dream come true.

The Student's in Egypt had no clue they were being manipulated, just as the Students had no clue in Iran when the Shaw was overthrown.

Those that truly believe the " Occupy" movement is only about " social injustice" need to be very careful who comes to their support!!!

Wolves can hide in more than one costume. 



SAUDI’S TROUBLES…. LIKE I SAID.

On Monday, I talked about the troubles of the Middle East coming back to the forefront for the GCC nations.

Unfortunately for the Saudi’s the troubles are not just in Bahrain this time.

Shiite lead incidents bring about an instantaneous response from the Saudi Government…IRAN!!!!

The violence of the past three days could or could not be “supported” by Iran.

It all depends on the definition of “ support”.

At a minimum Iran give words of encouragement and rejoice in the idea of armed confrontations between Shii and Saudi government officials.

In the eyes of the Saudis I am sure they believe Iran has fully supported this event… right down to given direct orders on what to do and how to execute the acts.

One thing I should mention about that part of Saudi.

At the end of Desert Storm, I sat and watched Bedouins load their Toyota pickup trucks and their all White Caprice Classics, the preferred vehicle of that part of the world back then, with countless numbers of RPGs.. Automatic weapons, creates of grenades ect. Ect from the area we called “ The highway of Death” in Kuwait.

The Syrian Army checkpoints were more interested in US troops supplying  them with old worn out Playboy Magazines then they were checking Bedouin vehicles.

Besides that, the Bedouins would leave driving out over the desert sand not on the roads.

To this day we could never understand how they kept from getting those Caprice Classics and two wheel drive pickups from getting stuck.  The Saudis would tell us, “ The Bedouins can read the sand”.  Beats me!

My point is this, by the time we left that area, everyone of us knew the Bedouins would be the largest standing Army in that area.. Northeastern Saudi and Southern Kuwait.

Knowing  this, if these Shiites have access to virtually tons  of armament, the Saudi government could be facing a insurrection far beyond their wildest dreams.

One thing is for sure, Saudi and the nightmare of sectarian violence in Saudi is a real concern the Royal Family must deal with quickly.

The real problem will come when the Saudi government overreacts.

Yep… Iran has it going their way and Saudi knows it.

http://www.debka.com/article/21359/

A NIGHT OFF FROM THE " OCCUPY" EVENTS.

A quick look tonight back at the Middle East and an example of just what the Iranians are praying for.

Assad's comments about attacking Israel if NATO takes action on Syria may seem little more than a bluster from a desperate Dictator, but don't be fooled.

Arab's are the masters of " A message in a message" and that is exactly what Assad was implying with the harsh threat of missiles towards Israel.

At face value, his statement was directed towards NATO; hint... Turkey is a member of NATO!!!

So, who do you think the message really was for?

Yep.... Turkey!

Assad has heard the rumors of "Safe Zones" for months now and the possibility of Turkey even contemplating such an event has Assad worried sick.

On top of that, don't forget that Assad has to be well aware Iran is quietly looking for the option of an " Alternative" relationship with a Syrian government....yep.. Assad is worried Iran may sell him out!

In my opinion, his statement may have had Turkey as the primary target, but the " message in a message" could have also been for Iran.

" If you leave me on my own, I will bring down the whole region"!

Think about it.

What does he have to lose?

If he even began to transfer more missiles systems into Lebanon, Israel would not only destroy Hezbollah and Hamas, but very possibly the Iranian nuclear program as well.

I have said time and time again, Israel has it's back against the wall every bit as much as Iran and I simply don't believe they will fight a third "limited" conflict with Hamas or Hezbollah again.

The next time around for Israel, it's going to be all or nothing!

Assad knows this and has probably even been told so.

His statement was bold and dangerous.

Bold and dangerous is his message; "abandon me... attack me.. and the whole region goes up in flames" !

Now, for my point about Iranian distractions.

The Russian and Chinese veto in the UNSC over sanctions on Syria hardly played in the US today.

Why?????

Simple.... " Occupy America" is underway.

Distraction?

You bet... at least for the US...

For Israel????

 Not so much!!

NOSTRADAMUS?  I HOPE NOT!? ( Tunisian Virus)

Back in February of this year I posted this viewpoint wishing I was going to be wrong.

I still have the same wish, but I fear I may have hit the nail on the head.

A major difference between February and now that makes this event potentially far more realistic is the drastic downturn in the US economy.

I think I have addressed this fear one other time since February, but I didn't search for the post, but I believe the issue I addressed is the impact Social Medias and Social networking could have on this event in the US.

Ok, so lets get right down to it.

I will address three basic questions in an attempt to paint a picture of what might be going on in the US.

HOW DID IT GET HERE?

Some, to include me, would say it was bound to happen and some will say they are surprised it took this long.

Some will say it even tried to get started back in Wisconsin months ago, but I'm not sold on that one.

The media, Al Jazeera and a few others may have given a weak attempt to " make the link", but they simply didn't put a lot of energy into it.

In a free society with truly free press, coupled a with completely  networked  population, it was simply bound to happen.

What is interesting is how fast it has become organized.

I'm sure the paranoia is already out there about, "who is behind this"?

I remember when I was a kid, every time something bad happened in this country, half of my hometown would say, "it's those damn Commie"!  Funny... Now that I am older.. I know a few times they were right.....

I'm not sold anyone is  'behind' this Social Revolution / Social Injustice movement, at least not from the standpoint of a central point of origin.

As mush as this event will please our enemies such as Iran, they simply are not capable of organizing such an event on our land.

Just about all the other Nation States are simply too tied to the day to day economic cycle to attempt such a movement.

Most are worried more about the " Virus" coming to their shores than they are spreading it to some other land.

I know I talked for weeks about the " Weaponization" of the movement, months ago, but in the case of the event showing up in the US, I simply don't think that is the issue.

Now, having said that, we must anticipate our enemies taking full advantage of any event they can antagonize now the demonstrations have taken hold here.

That leads me to the next question I will try to answer!

WHO MIGHT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS EVENT?

At the risk of sounding like a broken record... AGAIN... I think you know my first answer.

Who needs the eyes of the world taken off their problems right now?

Yep... Iran!!!

So, how could Iran leverage what may or may not take place in the US?

I hunch is it will difficult for them to really impact events here, at least physically!

What they will be fully ready to do is take advantage of the media coverage.

Press statements and Political Demagoguery are key tools in the hands of the Iranian government.

A good example of how they can turn one event into another might be the UNSC vote  on the Palestinian statehood issue.

A few good editorials by Hamas, Hezbollah or others about how the people of the US should take to the streets if their government VETO's the Palestinian vote in the UNSC is more than possible.

You won't see Iranian "agents" sneaking around in the shadows, although Hezbollah has operatives just about everywhere.

Getting a " Tent City" full of youthful, philosophical dreamers to " March" is not going to be that hard to  do; especially if they are readily available from the " Occupy" movement.

The bottom line is the most influential organization with this movement in the US is going to be the homegrown Socialist and Activist.

All the department chairs from all the left leaning universities will get a chance to feel young again...

They can dream like it's the 60s all over again and yell into their megaphones, or do YOUTUBE clips to their heart's content.

Economic times in the US and social media could easily create the " Perfect Storm" for the US and that leads me to my last question to answer.

SO HOW BAD COULD THIS GET?

Honestly; it's very difficult to predict.

For all the badmouthing our civilian law enforcement gets, they are the best in the world and I can't help but believe they have been thinking about this possibility for months now.

The other real good news is, these protest have a long history of being peaceful and that is a key to not letting these events get out of control.

The law enforcement agencies know this and they will do everything they can to keep the whole process "civil".

Having said that, as was the case in Egypt, London England, Jordan, Syria, Israel, Bahrain ect.. ect.  it only takes one or two violent events to turn things ugly.

Even in the " ugly' stage, the people in this country have a very good since for what is going too far and the media knows how to keep a close eye on both the protestors and the law enforcement agencies.

To put it simply, the US is far better at letting the population express itself than just about every other country in the world.

we have come a long... long ways from the days of the 60s Riots and we have come a long ways even from the Rodney King event.

Does that mean these events will be without violence?

I hope so, but everyone should be ready for any contingency.

England was not, at look how things swung completely out of control in the course of twenty four hours!

IN CONCLUSION:

The US must take several factors into consideration as it gets ready for the next few days or weeks.

1.  The economy has been and will continue to be the major battle cry.

Jobs and Entitlements will form the cornerstones of the debate.

2.  Social networking will take this movement to a whole new level.

The government and the law enforcement agencies can not plan based on what they learned from the 60s or any other Mass Demonstration event; at least not to great detail.

Hopefully they have spent the time to talk to England and Israel about " Lessons Learned" over the past six months.

If there is any one topic I am convenced the US government, federal, state and local  lacks understanding of, it's the impact of Social Networking on organizational movements.

Oh.. God forbid the FBI or CIA or NSA or any other 3 digit agency stands up and makes the comments they have expereince with Social networking based on the " War on Terrorism".

The fatal error for the US will be to lose the trust of the public watching these events take place.

More to follow on this once the first round of Nation Wide protest take place on Thursday.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/02/is-tunisian-virus-coming-to-us-i-found.html

THE GCC AND THE PENDING DANGERS!

The Gulf States have had exactly the environment they were wishing they wishing for, but the times are changing.

Bahrain is quickly sliding back towards the type of social disorder they had avoided for several months now.

The concept of surprising the Shia population is nothing short of sticking the government's collective head in the sand and wishing everything would just go away.

Add on top of this the desire of Iran to keep the option of confrontation open in a key member of the GCC and we have everything we need for the next chapter of the Arab Spring; one that is inside the must vulnerable and worrisome area.... the Gulf Oil producing countries.

Bahrain had the Saudis come to rescue already this year, but times may be far more difficult in the near future.

Saudi's plate is quickly filling up with Yemen and the Palestinian events.

Saudi also believes Iran has their fingers in both of the issues as well.

Iran, as is always the case, believes a good Defense is a strong Offense.

The courtroom drama with the Doctors in Bahrain was a complete blunder and has produced not a single shred of good news for the government of Bahrain.

The next real issue for the GCC is probably gong to be Oman!

Yes, Oman is and has been off the radar, but when you look at the strategic location of Oman, it is simply irresistible to Iran.

The concept of having the Saudi government dealing with Israel and the Palestinian event... The Yemen pending Civil War and the growing crisis rekindling in Bahrain is inflamed  by pushing the issue of Oman.

Oman's border with Yemen.. a vast wasteland, is prime for base camping trouble.

Reaching out for support and protection in numbers.

The GCC concept of adding Jordan is still in the works.

Jordan's problem is, the Palestinian event is taking up a great deal of energy and working out the details of joining the GCC is more than Jordan's government can deal with right now.

I would be wiling the bet the King is more than willing to join the GCC, but like all Arab countries, " The Devil is in the details".

So what does all this mean?

Iran has the ability to make matters far more complicated than they already are.

They simply have to decide what trick to pull and when to pull it.

Most of their effort seems to be centered on Yemen, but the competition  from the Sunni Fundamentalist is stiffer than Iran anticipated.

Yes, the GCC is growing more and more nervous and for good reason.

The Iranian Shark is circling the GCC lifeboat.

The question for those inside becomes.. does that Shark attack or not?

Tomorrow the topic is the American Winter ... back to my definition of the Tunisian Virus. 

SNAP SHOT / 1ST WEEK OF OCT 2011:

 I've not done one of these for over two weeks now, so here we go.

EGYPT:

Confrontation is still the rule of the day nearly ten months after the great Arab Spring took hold in Egypt.

The Muslim Brotherhood still holds a majority of the cards and the military's fall from grace is growing worse with each passing day.

Most of the secular socialist youth are growing more and more fearful of ending up in a Sheri Law dominated government that declares Democracy was it's path to power.

Egypt's military has all that it can handle trying to hold on to some form of normal governance while  worrying about the emerging Ottoman Empire and the Palestinian statehood issue and Israel.

Stack on top of this list, the Egyptian economy is just shy of being a complete disaster.

One more stack item to think about.

If the time comes the US actually cast a Veto on the UNSC resolution for Palestinian statehood, the streets of Cairo will be a major impact area.

Don't forget the Brotherhood's desire to keep Egypt in a political and economic shambles.

Protesting is just a great tool to keep this going, even if the Brotherhood states they will not participate.

So, Egypt what is the status of Egypt as of Oct of 2011?

Hard to imagine what the post election environment will be for Egypt.

If the youth thinks the MB and elements associated with them hijacked the election, they will go right back to the streets.

The questions become how much longer can Egypt just sit around like one big Campus protest?

My bet is, it's going to be a long Winter for the Egyptian people.

ISRAEL:

I'm not sure when the last time was Israel got good news to start a week.

With all the talk about tensions with Turkey, it's hard to imagine Turkey actually setting itself up for an open confrontation with Israel.

The posturing by the Ottomans is a high risk adventure, given who could take advantage of the events.

Yep, I'm talking about Iran!

Event with Turkey are somewhat related to the current crisis with the Palestinian issue, but I'm not sure the world sees it that way.

A great cover story of how the conflict seems to be growing from an issue of oil and gas fields continues to get press coverage.

Israel's relationship with Greece  is seen as a counter to the Turkish attitude towards Israel, but perception is the key when it comes to the world media and social networks.

How Iran plays the Palestinian event has been reviewed time and time again, but still the world seems to miss the basic premise; the fall of Assad and Syria sets many other events into motion.

No one has contemplated how these items may interact more than Israel, but that is no guarantee the reaction will be the right one.

Simply put, Israel continues to face the most troublesome and frankly  the most dangerous times since the founding of their country.

The US Secretary of Defense is there for a reason and the world needs to pay much closer attention to what is going on.

IRAN:

To double cross on not to double cross Assad, that is the question inside Iran.

The next key issue is, who is deciding?

The conflict between the Iranian / Persian Nationalist and the Muslim Fanatic is only made the concept of predicting Iran's actions more difficult to predict.

Predicting what Iran is up to or going to be up to is vital to the whole world right now and political infighting is not just a sideshow.

If Iran is going to find a Post Assad relationship, they will have to do it with Ottoman influence taken into consideration.

Creating a violent response over the Palestinian statehood event is an option Iran has with little anyone can do about it.

To save Assad with a regional distraction or not is most likely based on Iran's ability to build a Post Assad plan for Syria.

Tomorrow I will give my update on the GCC and how the Gulf States are coming back into play after months of being off the radar.

It's not going to stay that way for much longer.

The Arab Spring / Summer  / Fall / is heading for the Arab / Europe / American Winter.

Yes.... I said Americas. 

More to follow.

SO WHAT HAPPENS IF ISRAEL SAYS " YES" TO 67 BORDERS?

I read yet another academic explanation as to why Israel should agree to the entire Palestinian border requirements for their "peace deal".

Netanyahu has explained the tactical facts in the past, but lets review the big picture and keep the explanation simple.

Technology:

The changes to weaponry since the 67 war are too many to list.

Imagine Israel trying to defend it's territory that would be physically only  few kilometers wide from weapons that could strike it's entire area even from deep in Lebanon?

 What would Israel rely on?

Palestinian "good faith" ?...  It's "word" that they would not allow weapons to be launched from the West Bank?

Was that not the promise when Israel handed over Gaza?

What would be the statement from the new Palestinian government?

" We are not responsible and we are doing all that we can to stop the attacks"?

Times have changed.

Weapons and enemies have changed!

The concept of Israel defending it's cities from indefensible locations is simply out of the question.

For those who think a new government in Israel may  bring about a change in commitment, guess again.

What Israeli leader or party is going to capitulate the entire survival of Israel for the sake of peace with just one group?

The 67 border issue is completely unrealistic  as a starting point for future negotiations.

The issue of settlements in the West Bank, although difficult, is perhaps the only real issue that could have any traction.

Israel is never going back to the borders of 1967.

Wars are fought and nations lose territory.. this is the history of mankind.

If Israel goes to war and the territories are taken from them, then again the course of human history will have changed.

My warning is simple.... Israel will not give back land it sheds it's blood for!

If the Palestinian people want the 67s borders, then they will have to convince the rest of the Middle East and probably Turkey as well to war with Israel.

I am not sure what the answer is, but the 1967 border issue is dead and will remain dead until Israel is dead and if that happens.. I'm not sure there will be anyone nearby to live on the newly acquired land.