ATTEMPT TO GET A DELAY??? IT WON’T WORK!!! 

I'm a little concerned many are staring to talk about how the issue of the Palestinian Statehood vote in the UN may not actually take place for weeks or months. 

I would not anticipate being able to kick this can down the road. 

 The world of social media and protest will not go into a holding pattern for weeks or months pending an official vote. 

 If this becomes a possible course of action by the UN or the US, it might very well create the violence they are trying to avoid. 

Having said that, dragging this event out is exactly what Iran is looking for. 

For everyday the PA issue is center stage, the Syrian event is not. 

The ability to 'control' the protest is the real question. 

My prediction is Iran will not fully control the future actions and very possibly they could  set into motion events they didn't anticipate. 

Iran looked for a distraction from Syria and the Arab Spring and set its sights on the PA issue. 

Has everyone forgot, Israel can do the same thing? 

  SNAPSHOT: 

 At this point in time, I would have to say Iran has things going its way. 

 For the past few months they have been on the defense trying to find a way to fight off the Arab Spring not just in Syria, but potentially in Iran as well. 

 The goal of taking advantage of the PA issue would allow them to stop the bleeding and perhaps got back on the offense. 

Don't forget the concept of " buying time" was the strategic objective 

before the Arab Spring; time needed for their nuclear program. 

If Iran can  achieve  " breathing room", then they  can see go back to their original goal;  buying time. 

It also appears their plans for Yemen and Bahrain will come back to the 

table, if Iran can get back on offense. 

 What Iran can't control is threefold: 

1.    The Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. ( they have their own goals for 

the PA issue.) 

2.  The Turks and their "vision" of the New  Ottoman Empire. ( Regional 

as it may be.) 

3.  The Arab youth and social media. 



Mark LeVine's article  paints, as it usually does, a very slanted picture.



The disturbing part of his editorial comes towards the end when he makes
reference to the potential fallout of the PA issue for the rest of the
world.



It is naive to think the murder of Arch Duke Ferdanan was the cause of WWI.



All the pieces were in place for WWI to unfold.



The Assignation of the Arch Duke was just the excuse to get the war
underway.



The Arab Spring, according to some, is a result of  "social injustices" such
as jobs and cost of living.



The current world economy, the world excluding China, India that is,  is
stuck between weak and growing weaker, with a forecast of weakness for
several years to come.



If the frustration levels of the Arab youth truly is the cause of the Arab
Spring, coupled with repressive governments, then the outlook for the world
economy is probably more gasoline for the fire of revolt.



Mark LeVine title: " Obama's Perfect Storm" could truly be a accurate
depiction of the months ahead.



Poor global economic conditions... Social Networking..  and youthful energy
sandwiched between religious causes  is a dangerous recipe...



What is about to happen over the Palestinian Statehood issue is anyone's
guess, but mine is it will get out of hand.



Those that need violence from this event will insure it starts... The shot
that killed the Arch Duke....



For over six months now, I've said September was going to be a pivotal point
in the Middle East. 



It is most likely now a critical point for Europe and the US.





http://webmail.austin.rr.com/do/redirect?url=http%253A%252F%252Fenglish.aljazeera.net%252Findepth%252Fopinion%252F2011%252F09%252F201192065551745558.html





A TURKISH ALLIANCE WITH EGYPT? RIGHT!!!!

Mr. Davutoglu may be recognized as a strategic architect for Turkey, but the idea of him developing a working alliance with Egypt is really stretching it!

The odds of Turkey convincing the Muslim Brotherhood they will need to step aside for a Sectarian government after being suppressed for over forty years are slim to none.

Egypt is not Turkey….. Arabs are not Ottomans… Egypt will not be part of the Ottoman plan!

The speech by Mr Davutoglu may sound great to youthful college kids, but reality is the life that lives off of college campuses and outside political cocktail parties.

Nice try Turkey…. Egypt wont buy it!!

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/world/middleeast/turkey-predicts-partnership-with-egypt-as-regional-anchors.html?_r=1&ref=world

SEPTEMBER 18TH .. THE WEEK AHEAD

Starting this week, the Middle East is only going get more complicated and most likely more dangerous.

Lets take a look at the " Big Picture" before things get more confusing.

Yemen: 

If anyone thought that just because Yemen has been off the radar for the past two months it was no longer a valuable topic, they were sadly mistaken.

Most of us who have been watching and talking about Yemen are convinced a potential Civil War is more likely than at anytime in the Arab Spring.  ( I still refer to the Arab Spring as the " Tunisian Virus" in my little world).

I would speculate Iran has not pushed their 'plan' for Yemen as hard as they could be given they are placing most of their hope for ' Distraction' on the Palestinian Statehood issue.

Iran's  fallback plan included Yemen and I am sure it still does.

The problem with Yemen, at the moment, is internal and tribal.

The youthful University Students are no longer the center of attention.

The issue is not based on what tribes are going to support the Radical Islamist in Yemen and what tribes are going to be loyal to the current government?

The violence witnessed today, some of the worst in the past four months, is a grave indication of where things are heading.

AQAP  plans for Yemen has become the most disturbing issue to the West.

They are perfectly positioned to take full advantage of the turmoil surrounding the capital and the government.

The government struggles with tasking troops to deal with AQAP issues and keeping the capital from falling to the protestors.

The US and the West struggles with knowing the AQAP issue is alive and well in Yemen and not being seen as supporting an unpopular government that   is now under the Arab Spring spell.

How bad Yemen can become is anyone's guess right now.

How Saudi deals with the Yemen issue just became, as they were fearing, a secondary issue behind the Palestinian Statehood event.

AQAP and Iran can bring pressure to Saudi and the GCC right now that they simply are not ready for.

The good news is, AQAP and Iran are not necessarily on the 'same sheet of music'.

Syria:

Slowly but surly the opposition, in my opinion, is getting it's act together.

I think it is obvious they are receiving " outside help" and that is a topic for conversation all on it's own.

What I found interesting this week was watching the protestors burn the Chinese flag and the Russian flag!

Nice to see the shoe on the other foot for once!

For anyone nation to be perceived as even being remotely understanding of Assad right now is politically dangerous.

The rumors of armed resistance from city to city continues to grow and event the more peaceful minded leaders and organizers are turning to violence.

Assad may not be close to being tossed out yet, but the idea of him staying in power seems less and less likely.

My hunch is Iran is quietly looking for a way to support some other acceptable government in  Syria and not lose control of Syria's actions.

As I have said before, if Assad even thinks Iran is contemplating abandoning him, his entire attitude is going to change.

The hint that could be happening is watching Assad's relationship with Turkey.

If he really...really... wants to take revenge on Iran potential betrayal, he will run to the Turkish government and do so very publicly.

That is a concept that could get him killed!

Turkey:

One of the most complicated issue taking place in the Middle East, even more complicated than the Arab Spring, is Turkey!

Many experts are both confused and actually worried on the course Turkey seems to be taking.

You have read my theory on what Turkey is up to and I am as confident now as I have been in my belief.

If one is to step way... way back from the events of the Middle East, one would see three major groups.

The reemerging Ottoman Empire ( Turkey)

The attempted reemergence of the Persian Empire ( Iran)

And the uncoordinated and frankly very fractioned Arab Union / Movement.

The old " Colonial Powers" don't count given they are not part of the potential change but rather the face of the past that is being changed... via the Arab Spring.

Oh ya.. in the middle of this madness is this place called Israel.

Turkey's apparent change in attitude towards Israel, if true and I think it is,  the most disturbing attribute of the " New Turkey".

No one really believes Turkey wants a war with Israel, but the history of so called civilized man has many chapters based on unwanted / unintended wars.

The idea that Turkey is positioning itself to be the new regional power is not that far fetched.

The lengths they are willing to go to in order to make this happen brings pure tension and speculation to the forefront.

Egypt:

Near-term issues for Egypt are going to prove to be real test for the Egyptian Military.

Sinai based attacks on Israel are a true nightmare for them.

Preparation for Palestinian   protest and possibly riots have them overwhelmed at the moment.

Stack on top of these issues the growing dissatisfaction with the election process and the Egyptian military is all but buried in stress.

For them to wake up and find out Israel has lashed out at yet another attack initiated from the Sinai, could easily prove to be too much for them to control.

Ok, this week could become one the history books will speak of for years to come.

The Middle East is a powder keg and the only ones that could benefit from it is Iran.

The GCC, the EU and the US have to come together quickly on a Varity of issues and it seems that is increasingly impossible to do.

As I have said time and time again.... Iran is the one that needs a distraction in order to hold onto Syria and their dream of a nuclear Persian Empire.

Although they will be seen in the history books as the ones instrumental in bringing the Middle East to the point of crisis, Israel will take the immediate blame.

Israel is backed into a corner, much to the delight of the young Arab youths who think that will bring about " change".

The fact of the matter is, the change they are about to live through will become a nightmare they simply couldn't imagine. 

ISRAEL IN A CORNER

I wrote this today for some folks I work with, but I thought I would post it tonight.

A well written snapshot of Turkey's actions over that past two years.



Erdogan  could be overheating his own message or put another way, he's
drinking too much of his own Kool-Aid.



The desire of becoming the regional power for the Middle East may be goal of
a Nationalist such as Erdogan, but history is a well known topic in the
Middle East and the Arabs remember the Ottoman Empire!



I strongly suspect Turkey believes the EU is on a downward spiral and as
such the need to become a member may have changed.



Without having to dance to the fiddle of the EU, a newborn Islamic based,
Nationalistic  government, such as Erdogans', may feel the Arab Spring has
provided the perfect timing to take the lead in the region.



Erdogan knows all too well the most emotional issue in the Middle East  is
and has been  Palestinian Statehood.



Taking on the quest of the Palestinian people robs the Iranian (Persian
Empire under development)  plan of its regional draw.



Iran also understands the real "player" behind the Syrian revolt is Erdogan.



The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood lives by a creed like all other Arabs, " the
enemy of my enemy is my friend".



Assad may not be the true enemy of Erdogan and his dream of the Ottoman
Empire, but Assad is a puppet of the up and coming Persian Empire and that
makes him an "enemy".



The old and once powerful Egypt is a victim of timing.



As they sit in rubble that was once a Dictatorship, they are powerless to
rebut or perhaps even influence the Turkish Juggernaut named Erdogan.



Their fight for regional relevance may have to wait until years in the
future. 



So it seems Erdogan has everything going his way.



He has the West stating his form of government is the pathway to the future
for all the Middle East and North Africa; a concept we will determine is a
huge strategic error too late!



He is quickly becoming the Champion of the Middle East, much to the dismay
of Iran.



So, why should he be worried?



Israel!



As he takes his "world Tour" of the Arab Spring countries you have to wonder
if he has noticed the change in Israel?



Where have the protest gone over the  cost of living? ( Tent City )



Where are the articles by Israelis condemning Israel's inability to address
the Palestinian Statehood issue?



Where are the outcries for Benjamin Netanyahu and his party to step down in
the face of pending violence?



It is clear, to me, the people of Israel are beginning to see what they
truly have facing them.



They have begun the process of preparing for what they have always gone to
bed at night fearing; another War!



Not the "skirmishes" of 2006/ 08, but the concept of a 1967 or 73 conflict.



It  should be a warning bell to not just Erdogan, but all of the Middle East
that Israel and more importantly the people of Israel have gone quiet.



For the enemies of Israel to think the events such as the Tent City protest
was the beginning of an Israeli Spring, could be catastrophic!



For the Middle East to rejoice in the possibility of having Israel
surrounded and cut off from sympathetic nations, is to place Israel in a
position of  desperation.



The youth dancing in the streets of Cairo, Amann, Gaza, the West Bank are
too young to remember the last true war in the Middle East.



In the long run, I am afraid that is the real problem; youthful Social
Networkers who have never seen the region as it was in 67 or 73. 



Mubarrak understood all too well the repercussions of a "trapped Israel".



I know great people are trying desperately to figure a way out of this
pending UN vote and the over confident Ottomans, but they are running out of
time.

REPERCUSSIONS

With the rumors swirling today that Abbas may request UNGA recognition and not UNSC authorization, the complexity of the Palestinian statehood issue only increased.

Abbas finds himself between a rock and a hard spot.

The streets of the Middle East have already heard he is heading to the UNSC, although they did not hear it directly from him.

If you remember the beating he took over the Palestinian Papers issue I don't see how he could once again be seen as bending   to US and Israeli pressure.

Hamas would have defeated him and taken complete control of the Palestinian movement during the Palestinian Paper's event if it had not been for the launching of the Arab Spring.

So how does this issue interact with the topic of " Repercussions"?

Well, the first repercussion of the vote could be the future of Abbas.

If he fails to take the issue to the UNSC, will the Palestinian people, namely the youth, not attack him for selling out?

By having someone leak the story two days ago the issue was heading to the UNSC, did he doom himself, or did someone set him up?

In the world of Middle Eastern politics, you just never really know.

Repercussion number one:

The fate of Abbas as the leader of the Palestinian movement.

Ok, for the sake of argument, lets suppose Abbas announces on Friday, his big speech is scheduled for that day, the UNGA is the path he has chosen?

Is the initial violence worse than if he announced the UNSC pathway?

My guess is yes!!!!

He becomes a target of the  protest along with the Israelis and the US.

The odds are, if he announces the UNGA path on Friday, the protest will start that night and they might very well be violent against him, something Hamas would  look forward to.

The bad news is, Israel will see the UNGA pathway as totally unacceptable as well.

If you are getting the feeling there are no easy answers here, welcome to the world of the Middle East.

Repercussion number two:

If Abbas takes option of announcing the UNSC pathway, the initial protest will not center around him and his cabinet.

That in itself might push him towards the UNSC choice.

Self Survival is a strong instinct and Abbas would not be where he is if he didn't understand the concept.

 What is potentially good for Abbas is catastrophic for the Palestinian people, although many of them simply do not realize it yet.

If the US veto vote is cast, the violence in the Middle East and other parts of the world to include London, Europe and even places like New York could be could reach levels not seen in years.

The anger of the US Congress could easily and most likely turn into a cancellation of funding for the Palestinian Authority.

I would think some other "stop gap" plan is ready, such as Saudi filling the financial void.

The problem for the US will be a double negative, one the Veto vote and two the interruption of funding.

How bad this will disrupt US foreign policy in the region is simply too hard to tell, but it may go beyond what most anticipate.

Embassy operations may become a real concern and I would bet contingency plans are already underway.

As one  US Department of State Official put today, the event could be a complete " Train Wreck".

Clearly both options are bad, but the UNSC veto issue is extremely damaging for the US and the support to the PA cause may simply evaporate.

Ok, tomorrow I will talk about who benefits from the pending " Train Wreck".

Hint; there are more on the list than you think.

TOUGH TALK FROM TURKEY, BUT WHAT DOES IT REALLY MEAN?

I must admit Erdagon's blistering speech about Israel was a little unnerving.

It's important to realize that speeches given in the Middle East are often not meant for the Western population.

This was probably more of a "campaign speech" than it was a true message to Israel.

I say that realizing the Islamification of Turkey plays a huge factor in the current relationship between Turkey and Israel.

Erdagon's speech given in Egypt didn't go unnoticed by the Egyptians as well.

There may be a level of cooperation  between the MB and Turkey, but that doesn't negate the long standing competition between Turkey and Egypt.

History, runs deeper than religion between these two and the Ottomans Vs the Egyptian battle of egos is not lost on this speech today.

When you look at what has  happened in the past six months, it is difficult to discount the fact that Israel has lost a relationship with both Egypt and Turkey; two countries that helped keep a balance in the Middle East.

The second event that happened today was not as much as surprise to me, but it may have stunned others.

With the Palestinian Authority announcement they are " going for broke", the world, especially the US and the EU need to start playing " what if".

The game plan for next week's actions needs to be very well thought out.

The problem is, no one has a lot of time to do so.

Tomorrow night, I will walk down the trail of what this means and what the repercussion could be... in detail.