BIG PICTURE ISSUES THAT PAINT A DANGEROUS SEPTEMBER AND FALL

Let’s take a look at three big picture issues that could very well set the course for the Middle East soon.

Syria and Turkey:

I think the talk of Turkish physical interdiction in Syria is closer to being a reality and the danger is both sides may see why this needs to happen.

Two months ago the rumor of Turkey opening a “ Safe Zone” inside of Syria was nothing more than just that a rumor. 

It is very possible the Turkish Military was told to draft a contingency plan for such an event given that is what militaries do…. Plan for actions..

Last week an arguably weak “rumor” was making its rounds  based on the possibility the Turkish Military Senior Commanders had stepped down over the issue of possible intervention in Syria.

I watched this story fall apart quickly, but not soon enough that some didn’t pick up on it.

Most “Rumors” have some small percentage of fact and in this case that small percentage could have been the planning process Turkey developed two months ago for the “Safe Zone” concept.

The truth of the matter is the Turkish Military leadership’s actions were based on a long standing conflict with the current government of Turkey.

Now for the Syrian side:

The open conflict witnessed all last week, even as Ramadan began, is a huge indication of just how desperate Assad has become.

Here is the million dollar question!

Has he become so desperate that he would contemplate actual hostile actions with another Nation State?

I have talked about this theory in the past, but the chances of it coming to reality became a great deal more disturbing with the following two articles’ release.

At the sake of keeping this post simple, let me try to argue why Turkey could soon be forced to make hard decisions.

If you have been following what I have been saying, you will remember my  belief in the potential struggle for control of the Middle East…. The Ottoman Empire Vs the Persian Empire.

It did not go unnoticed by Turkey how quickly the world reacted to the weak response by the UN on  Syria.

Turkey knows all too well the power of strong words following the limp reaction of the UN.

In the spirit of building the Ottoman Empire, Turkey could easily find it to their advantage to take strong actions.

For now, strong actions can be seen as sending a senior Turkish Official to call on Assad with the press release that the message this person delivers will be a stern warning.

It’s the type of posturing Turkey must show right now.

To say or do nothing, especially during Ramadan, would send a message to any potential follower, Egypt ect… that Turkey is more concerned with appeasing the EU and the UN than doing what is right.

Back in April I commented about the danger of becoming a “Leader”.

Well, Turkey is seeing that danger now.

Now back to my question stated above.

Will Assad risk conflict?

Lets turn this question around?

Why would he not risk conflict?

His supporters may leave him?

If Turkish troops set foot on Syrian land, no supported of Assad will leave him for it will not be about Assad, but it will be all about Syria.

If the warning by Turkey is truly as upfront as Turkey states it will be, Assad will have no choice than to respond with words just as harsh.

As soon as he does, you can look for a statement from Iran and Hezbollah.

Now, does that mean Iran will risk a regional war for Syria?

Go back to the same question asked about Assad?

At the point of Turkish troops setting foot on Syrian land, what choise does Iran really have?

The question of who will win the day in the Middle East.. The Ottoman Empire or the Persian Empire will have been answered.

Yes; the danger here is tremendous and what is even more dangerous is the “group think” that an event like this can not or will not happen.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&ArticleID=77186

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=77184

Saudi:

Paranoia continues to run deep in the royal family of Saudi Arabia.

Putting out a weak story about “amendments” to a law that basically says, “ if you take to the streets…. You are guilty of conspiring against the King” is a desperate attempt to soften the blow to public perception.

The story even hints the amendments may not get passed the “hardliners” in the Saudi leadership.

Bottom line; Saudi is getting ready for an event that keeps them up at night and gives them nightmares..

Seeing Mubarak in a cage must have sent chills down the spines of the Royal Family.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&ArticleID=77175

Israel and the month of September:

If Turkey and Syria have not blown the lid off the Middle East by September, than Israel may get it’s chance.

For months it has been obvious the Arab Spring / Tunisian Virus / will end up in Israel.

How it gets started has several options, but how it ends is practically set in stone.

Violence will be the theme of September and Iran / Hezbollah / Hamas  will insure that is true.

The question becomes does Israel preempt the pending events?

My bet is they do…

How do they do that?

Push Syria or Iran over the edge.

Why would Israel risk doing this?

Go back to the same question at the beginning of this post; the one asked of Assad and the one asked of Iran.

If Israel is in flames and riots rule the day as in Syria, what does Israel have to lose?

www.foxnews.com/world/2011/08/07/israeli-minister-cut-ties-with-palestinians/

Egypt and the “ I told you so”.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I think I have already said thatJ …  this story is a classic “ I told you so”.

Imagine the concept of Left leaning, social liberal and their college professors deciding to pull away from the MB?

I’m shocked!!!!

I called them ideological fools the day I saw them standing next to the MB and I think they have now seen the light all be it a little too late.

It’s like Sheep standing up to Herder .. shoulder to shoulder with the WOLF!!!!

Egypt is light years away from becoming a stable Democracy; Western definition that is.

Fools!!

http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=232836



WHAT COULD THE FUTURE HOLD FOR SYRIAN FORCES IN URBAN WARFARE?

I’m going to talk about something  that might seem to be somewhat ‘ in the weeds’, but I think it’s  an important topic given the real possibility of civil war in Syria.

The tactics of the Syrian military for the past four moths have been based more on a civilian law enforcement support theory than a true military, tactical engagement.

A few of the operations have had a flavor of actual urban combat tactics and that is probably the result of defecting units joining the resistance.

For the most part Syrian operations have been tactically ‘low threat’ from the standpoint of the protection required for armor.

As time goes on, especially in Hama, that could and would change dramatically.

Let us supposed the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood decides to bring in armament that could negate the armor being used in the city sweep operations.

Do they have access to this level of weaponry?

Yes… 

The support supply chains are well established and it would be foolish for the Syrian military not  to assume the SMB and others will not have access to the types of weapons required.

I’ve not seen any ‘official’ reporting on Syrian armor losses, but you have to wonder if the units that ‘defect’ are simply infantry units.

Even if they are infantry, the weapons  carried by these units, such as the newer RPGs, are more than a match for the light skinned vehicles Syria is employing.

Between the ‘Resistances” ability to gain access to specialized weapons and the defecting units, the threat of close order, “hunter killer” teams attacking armor in an Urban Combat environment is a distinct possibility.

If the SMB is going to pick a city to make a stand in, I would bet it is Hama.

My theory is, if they decide to make a stand, they will do so with some decisive event.

Killing armor that is virtually trapped in an inner city environment with only lightly armed, dismounted infantry, is a disaster waiting to happen; for Assad that is!!

One only has to look at what happen to the Russians in Grozny to see the possible future of Syrian armor units.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/row/rusav.htm



THE UNITED NATIONS SPEAKS OUT ON SYRIA.. .WELL.. .KIND OF!!

It seems amazing to more and more people the reluctance to abandon Assad the way the world ran away from Mubarak as if they didn’t even know him.

The reason is simple to understand unless you are one of the ones being shot at by the Syrian Military and armed Thugs!

Everyone in power is scared senseless what a ‘Post Assad’ Syria would look like.

That includes the so called leadership of the UN.

“We strongly condemn the violence in Syria by ALL SIDES”!!!

What………. “by all sides”…………….are you kidding me?

Talk about a blatant case of pandering to the two hold outs….. Russia and China”.

Now, we all know there are armed resistance members  are taking part in these demonstrations and the losses on the Syria military side are not disputable.

Here is the problem……. I’m not sure the Syrian Military has killed one armed resistance member.

You would think such a photo op would not be lost by the propaganda machine of Assad.

So, what did the UN really accomplish today?

Convincing anyone additional actions may be needed in Syria is an extremely hard sell and with the current level of violence, the reluctance to do anything other than “words” is probably not in the cards.

What has started to change is the Russian viewpoint.. No word out of China, but that’s not unusual.

The Russians will continue to let their ‘concerns’ be known, but they are a long ways away from supporting any actions to include sanctions.

The problem is, Assad knows the reluctance of all the other nations around him.

The fact that he has made a push into the stronghold of Hama shows us just how confident he is with  pushing the violence option.

No one wants to push this issue any further than ‘words’, but the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood may force the issue soon.

Yep.. the violence is only going to go up and Ramadan is going to add fuel to the fire.

Reluctant Leaders are not out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination.





DANGEROUS BUSINESS BEING A TERRORIST OPERATIONS OFFICER!!

 Evidently, somebody wanted Mustafa Mughniyeh to go the way of his Father.

Before you hang the guilt on the Israeli apparatus, let us take a closer look at another group that would love to see Hezbollah operations disrupted.

Yes, I am talking about the Sunni element of Lebanon.  

It is a common fact the Sunni / Hezbollah relationship is at a historic low in Lebanon.

The STL is the emotional issue, but the events in Syria are fueling potential Sectarian violence in Lebanon and this event could easily be a extension of the growing tensions.

A lot of things are going on right now in and around Lebanon, but this event didn’t seem to get the attention I would have expected.

Is it a important event?

Yes, if you are a Hezbollah member.

Lebanon is a land of  ‘tit for tat’ and revenge is best served cold, especially when it is served by Hezbollah.

My bet is Hezbollah may give a press statement about Israel’s involvement in the bombing, but you can bet they are looking inside the fence of Lebanon for the real culprit.

Stand by for the ‘revenge’; it will not be against Israel.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/02/fridays-explosion-targeted-mughniyehs-son-mustafa/



ASSAD …. CHINA. AND THE ISRAELI NIGHTMARE

Well, it’s obvious the situation in Syria took a dramatic turn for the worse over the past 48 hrs.

For Assad to take the actions he did on the fist day of Ramadan simply proves just how desperate he has really become.

His actions severely damaged supportive leaders today;  Turkey and Russia.

It is quickly becoming virtually impossible for the Russians to support Assad and the Turkish leadership is passing the point of no return.

Pay particular attention to the comments of the SMB in the attached article.

Not only is the uptick in violence a very bad sign, but the open statements about Assad wishing  to wage Sectarian Warfare is extremely  dangerous.

It is very possible the situation, as hard it might be to believe, might be about to get really …. Really out of control.

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/08/01/syrian-attacks-fuel-fears-of-sectarian-war

A few months ago I commented about the paranoia that was starting to grip China.

The whole concept of a Social Networked Revolutionary movement sends chills down the spines of a government trying to hold together a multicultural nation of over 1.4 BILLION people.

Add to that the spin of a religious movement and the Chinese leadership is  sleeping with one eye open.

Can there be a Chinese Spring… Summer … Fall?

Absolutely.

Will China make Assad and Kaddafi look like rank armatures when it comes to crushing protestors?

Do you remember the last time the Chinese Youth stood up to the government? 

http://www.worldbulletin.net/index.php?aType=haber&ArticleID=76927 

ISRAELI DANGER ZONE!

So, September 20^th or near that date is going to be what the PA hopes is the big event.

I have to wonder how much input the MB had with those that set this date.

I said it last night, but I find it hard to believe the MB would want to take on the dangerous task of the PA / Israeli issue before they have the situation in Egypt and Syria under control.

I’m still trying to understand the pressure they think they have applied by announcing the ‘date’ right now.

We all understand the relationship they are trying to build between the protest date and the UN vote issue.

The planners have to understand by giving the dates so far in advance, the Israeli government can adjust to a fine detail with their response.

This will require close observation and I predict the course of this action is very up in the air right now.

What takes place in Syria will set the pace for the next few months, but Israel will only take this announcement as yet another warning of just how bad things are becoming.

One thing is for sure, the Arab Spring… Arab Summer …. Is about to turn into the Arab Fall…

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/08/201181185654921787.html

DANGEROUS TRENDS AND THE BEGINNING OF RAMADAN

Earlier this week I spoke of the disturbing, yet predictable events in Egypt and how the MB and others like the Salafist had everything going their way.

I had mentioned the “tent city” issue that was beginning to come to the forefront in Israel and why this movement had a very disturbing theme to it.

Let’s look at the “ tent city” issue in greater detail and possibly shed some light on why this event could lead to much bigger problems for Israel.

I would not argue for one minute the people of Israel who pay all the bills, the middle class, do not have the right to be extremely upset of the skyrocketing cost over the past two years.

Israel’s repercussions of the worldwide economic slowdown from two years ago are obviously still impacting day to day lives  there.

When politicians continue to use revenue as a means of insuring reelection and not being financially responsible, then eventually the wheels will come off the whole process.

Like Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and so on and so on…. Many of the people in Israel who are upset with the current government have a legitimate complaint.

And as is the case in Egypt, Tunisia, Syria and so on and so on….  “Other” groups are taking advantage of the tension.

Several times over the past five months, I have talked about the two main movements that have been fighting for control of the “ Arab Spring”.

1. The Socialist / Revolutionaries supported by the Academic communities;  the bastion of  such movements for centuries now.

2. The Muslim Fundamentalist movement; I know most of these groups will tell you they are NOT “Fundamentalist”…… Right!!!!

As has been the case since the beginning of the ‘ Arab Spring’, the game for the  Fundamentalist   has been to let the youthful, Socialist / Academics  spill their blood and eventually do all the legwork  and when the time is right… make their ‘move’.

This is exactly what we witnessed last Friday in Egypt.

It is my belief this is exactly the trend we will see with events in Israel only they will be compounded by the possible September UN vote on the PA issue.

The people who are currently protest in Israel are a mixture of the Social Revolutionaries and the Middle Class of Israel.

If you don’t think this Social Revolutionary movement is taking part in Israel, just take a look at the poster in the middle of the photograph in the attached article.

 

Interesting enough, good old Che Guevara mug shot has shown up in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and now Israel.

Now, follow the pattern that has been set throughout the Arab Spring…. The youth movement, this time accompanied by the working people of Israel, start the process…. The seated government overreacts ……. Al Jazeera runs a dozen stories about the ‘injustices’ of Israel and so on and so on…

And if and when it all starts to turn real bad… in walks the second group!!!!

Again .. The Egyptian model fits here.

Now, there is and will be a real twist to the Israel version of this story.

IRAN!!

Several times in the past three months I have mentioned how desperate Iran is and will be to draw the attention away from events in Syria, to the point I did not and still do not rule out Iranian supported violence / military supported action against Israel.

You can be your last meal this ‘Tent City’ event in Israel has Iran’s attention on several fronts.

The danger will be pushing it too far.

Israel like Iran is fully aware of how unstable it’s near term future could be.

Israel like Iran could easily decide to ‘turn up the heat’ on Iran if things get too out of control.

It’s a classic example of, “ be careful what you wish for” when it comes to Iran and the ‘Tent City’ event unfolding in Israel.

Way back in Jan of this year, I predicted the Arab Spring final event would take place in Israel.

I have said for three months now the MB feels the timing is not right for a dramatic shift in the Israeli / PA issue.

They need to stabilize the future of Egypt and finish planning the future of Syria before they can go for the final prize of the PA issue.

That doesn’t mean they are not going to directly or indirectly support the current event in Israel.

What they don’t want is two fold.

1. They don’t want the Shia  / Iran to gain the upper hand and be seen as a leader on the PA issue.

2. They don’t want uncoordinated and perhaps uncontrollable violence to include a regional war, while they try and form governments in Egypt and Syria.

Israel knows this and it will help them design their response to not only the events in Israel, but to the potential medaling of Iran. 

In the long run, the working class people of Israel who are upset with the cost of living in Israel could find themselves inadvertent ‘pawns’ in the never ending struggle called the Middle East.

  http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/07/201173020161903849.html 

EGYPT: A CLASSIC EXAMPLE OF “ I TOLD YOU SO”.

If you search my post on this blog site, you will find a series of post that talked about the possible future of the Egyptian Revolution.

If anyone possibly thought the MB and other groups such as the Salafists were going to sit back and let the liberal, academic youth of Egypt forge the future of Egypt after nearly 50 years of being suppressed, the MB that is, I can’t help you understand what is really going on in Egypt.

I said this four months ago and I will say it again.

The ‘fundamentalist’, all of them, are not about to sit on the sidelines and watch a group of “kids” who are following all the ways of the hated ‘infidels’ , set the future of Egypt.

They may have started the Arab Spring, but they are not going to be allowed to own the movement.

I have talked about how the MB and now their ‘partner’ in crime, the Salafist, ( more dangerous than the MB), having set a plan for Egypt.

I have talked about the ‘ Master Plan’ for the MB, but let me reiterate what I think is going on.

We could be witnessing the beginning of a real rift that some of us predicted from the beginning of the ‘revolution’ in Egypt.

Both groups, the fundamentalist and the liberal youth believe it is their time to change the course of Egypt.

The difference is very important and the key to who will probably win this battle for control of Egypt’s future.

The MB and the Salafist have no problem lying to anyone who is a ‘nonbeliever’.

The Liberal Youth want to see the good in everyone and unfortunately see the “ good” in everyone to include the MB and the Salafist.

Are these harsh words?

Yes they are, but harsh is what Egypt is in for.

I was never optimistic Egypt was suddenly going to travel the liberal road to Nirvana , much to the chagrin of CNN’s dreamers.

Ok, look; we have two groups in Egypt, the ruthless ‘Fundamentalist’ and the “I see the good in everyone” liberal Youth.

Yes there are others, but they are too busy trying to work just to keep their families fed and safe.

They are the real victims here.

Yes, I think this protest today is the beginning of real trouble for Egypt.

I’m not sure what this turn of events is going to mean to the rest of the Middle East, but trouble in Egypt is great news for Assad and Iran.

Never forget my theory of Iran needing a huge distraction to keep their dream alive.

If Iran was preparing to actually go to war with Israel, then Egypt may be about to give them the out they desperately needed.  

 



http://english.aljazeera.net/video/middleeast/2011/07/2011729184016350136.html