EGYPT AND THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD

Many people have talked about the changes brought on by the revolution in Egypt to include the consistent worry of the MB gaining control of the government.

It was the topic of conversation even before Mubarak left power.

The, "what if" factor was alive then and it still lives today.

As you read this article, pay attention to the  not so quiet changes the MB is now floating  to the Egyptian public.

Look at the logic of the argument that forms the baseline of this story.

The MB and Egypt must have a government based on ' Muslim values'.

The MB may perhaps gain control of the Parliament.

And last but certainly not least, the MB has members who may wish to step outside the part and run for the Presidency.  

Saying someone is going to 'step outside' the MB is like saying someone is going to leave the CIA or the Mafia!

The play here is obvious; announce you are not affiliated with the MB ' officially' and after you win, state you are going to work with them.

Code for; the MB wins the Presidency.

Another interesting aspect of this article is the fact the author recognizes the potential rift between the youth of Egypt / MB / and the older members of the MB.

Two months ago, the standard line was, "don't  worry about the MB, the youthful side of the movement will not just rollover for the older members".

Well; get the roll cage attached to the political race car.

The message here is not lost on those who know Egypt and have been following events there.

The MB is poised to call the shots in Egypt and the future of Egypt is going to be based upon the concept of government the MB comes up with.

Does this mean everyone in Egypt is going to fall in line and march to the drum beat of the MB?

I don't think so.

Egypt may have an election coming and the MB may rule the day of that election, but freedom  to include the rights of Women is going to be very hard to put back in a cage.

This article paints a very detailed picture of Egypt and the readers must be able to understand all the underlying issues captured in it.

Egypt is a long... long way from being back to normal.

 http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/06/201162075117760361.html

THE WEEK AHEAD:

PALESTINIAN UNIFICATION ISSUE:

When the great announcement was made of the 'unification government' for the PA, I said we would have to wait to see if anything really came of this!

Announcing something and actually accomplishing it are often two very different events.

At that time, Hamas was scared to death of losing it's big supporter, Syria and so they went running back to their point of origin, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

The MB was more than willing to take Hamas back under its wing just as long as Hamas realized the MB was going to call the shots from that point on.

When they were desperate to land, knowing the Syrian home base was in question, they agreed to anything the MB asked of them.

As for Fatah; they too were desperate!

The paranoia was running deep after the PA papers were disclosed to the public.

Abbas was as confused and worried about events in the Middle East as anyone else in power was and the idea of the MB, the Mother Ship, providing some degree of predictability was just what he was looking for.

What is now apparent, it was to many of us from the beginning, is the Devil is in the details.

Imagine that!!!

The panic level is leveling off for both Hamas and Fatah and the 'concept' they agreed to in Egypt has details they both don't like.

So; is this 'deal' going to fall apart?

It would be very embarrassing for the MB to have this turn into just another 'good idea' in the Middle Eastern history of " good ideas'.

Both Hamas and Fatah will get the phone call and undoubtedly the message they better agree to at least appear to reconcile their differences quickly!!

The MB has too much at stake in Egypt to have their first big political success fall apart; especially before the elections are held in Egypt.

Look for some level of hand holding to take place sometime this week.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011619174455513476.html

TURKEY AND SYRIA RIFT:

Read between the lines in this story.

Don't lose site of the fact Turkey has announced they are going to distribute 'aid' on the Syrian side of the border!

Remember Turkey hinted to opening a ' Safe Zone' on Syrian land.

Pushing 'aid' into Syria is step two in executing this process.

Step one: Announce you are thinking about conducting an 'operation'.

Step two: Incrementally begin to execute the mission you threatened you would do.

Here is a danger point of the whole Syrian revolt.

The closer Syrian regular units get to the Turkish border, the greater the odds of someone shooting at someone from the other side.

If the Turkish 'aid' vehicles come under fire, then Turkey could easily say, "we must establish the Safe Zone in order to protect the entire relief process".

Assad is a fool, but he is not insane!

He understands the peril of having his military conducting operations virtually on the Turkish border.

Close contact of two very nervous militaries can be a very dangerous event.

The people who would like to see the whole Syrian revolt escalate could very easily 'spark' an event.

Who?

 The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood / SMB / that's who?

This could be the last few days Assad has to gain control of this event.

If the border becomes a point of contention, then Syria's problems will explode.

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201161918155641645.html

THE DANGER IS YEMEN:

Who is wining in Yemen?

If you said the Terrorist, you would be correct!

The military in Yemen is more concerned with holding on to the Capital and the current government than defeating an Enemy that is virtually taking over the South.

One crisis at a time is typically too much for Yemen, but to have two, well you finish the thought train here.

Many complex issues about Yemen could be reviewed, but the bottom line is simple.

Yemen is quickly  becoming the new Afghanistan / Pakistan / border hideout.

The answers for the problems in Yemen are far too complex to be worked out anytime soon.

Saudi has their hands in the event, but the GCC is somewhat preoccupied  holding on to the Gulf States and trying to bring on new members.

Yemen has all the ingredients to be a long term problem, much worse than it has been, much like Somalia.

  http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-13830428          

SAUDI AND THOSE DAMN WOMEN DRIVERS:

On the surface, the whole issue of Women driving around the capital might seem not really news worthy, but I can assure you, to the Royal Family it's a HUGE issue!!!

The real issue in Saudi has been and will continue to be the Royal Family trying to keep the Fundamentalist happy and at the same time not being seen as the suppressors of modern social normalcy.

When you stack that on top of the East Coast Shi issues, Saudi has it's royal hands full.

Driving cars in Saudi is not an issue of Women's rights.

It's the issue of once again being seen as a repressive government in a area of the world rocked by a drive for civil liberties.

Women driving cars is quickly turning into Vendor's setting themselves on fire in Tunisia.

Does this mean the Women in Saudi are looking for gas cans to light themselves on fire?

NO!

It's the analogy the Socialist Revolutionaries will make that counts.

Iran will tie this ' Royal mindset' in with the Shi suppression issue.

Saudi sees anything that happens in or around them as a threat!

Paranoia runs deep in Saudi now days.

 http://www.debka.com/article/21038/                                                    

IRAN AND THE JOKE OF THE WEEK!

So, it finally comes out.

Iran is not looking for the development of nuclear weapons and the Russians have promised this?

What Iran has done a good job of doing is talking about anything and everything other then the pending social problems they know are coming to their cities and towns.

Not talking about the ' Tunisian Virus' doesn't mean it will not show up.

What is apparent, at least for now, is Iran's desire to exploit a 'distraction' somewhere in the Middle East has been limited.

Going to meetings and hanging out with world leaders is a form of distraction.

The ' Mad Genie' giving incoherent  speeches, something he is good at, will not change the fate of Iran.

Iran is watching events in Syria hourly and Syria remains topic number one.

Assad is rearranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic and Iran knows it.

What does Iran do to prevent this or what happens in Iran when Assad falls?

That is the question we should all be working on.

http://rt.com/politics/ahmadinejad-medvedev-sco-nuclear/

THE SYRIAN JOKE OF THE DAY!

 For Rami Makhlouf to announce he is going to dedicate his life to charity causes is not only laughable, but it's actually just sick!

I am always completely flabbergasted when I hear of some absolute Thug, Gangster, suddenly declaring they are taking the highroad.

You can always tell when these dirt bags are in trouble, real trouble; they suddenly start turning over a new leaf.

This Monster has made a fast fortune off the blood of the Syrian people thanks to his cousin Assad and his family.

Perhaps what is even more frightening are the people who actually think low life's like Makhlouf are capable of becoming decent  members of society.

Makhlouf smell the end coming soon and he is now trying to do damage control.

The people of Syria will not forget and they will not forgive!

What this does show us is just how worried the 'inner circle' of the ruling government is becoming.

For all the talk of 'everything is fine and a few thugs are the real problem', Assad and his band of thieves are realizing the end is near.

Don't underestimate what this announcement from Makhlouf really means.

Assad doesn't. 

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/2011617104839976447.html

SO WHERE DOES TURKEY GO FROM HERE WITH SYRIA?

Assad may not be acting like he is getting the message when Turkey talks, but I would bet he hears them loud and clear.

Stack this on top of his Brother chewing his ear and then at the same time Iran gives him tons of advice and that advice has probably now turned into ultimatums.

The picture I have been trying to paint for over two weeks now is a simple one.

Assad is running out of options and friends.

Turkey turning their back on him, and I'm not convinced that has happened past the point of no return yet,  must give him a feeling of total desperation. 

Assad may be praying for 'status quo' and everyday his forces only manage to murder a few of his citizens probably seems like a good day.

What I find remarkable are the nations that are still privately wishing and probably praying Syria calms down and Assad stays in power.

Most understand what the alternative is and that weighs on their minds more than the death toll.

I can't say that I agree with that theory, but the world is a very imperfect place and can get much worse.

Syria will set the course for Lebanon and Iran and as such it will set the fate of near term future for the whole region.

That is why most nations simply wish this event would just go away.

It is not going to.

It is going to get worse and I fear much worse.

Sometimes, the only news is bad news and bad news must be dealt with.

If a regional, sectarian war is about to unfold, and I'm not sold that has to happen, then minimizing the damage is a critical goal.

If a regional war based on Iran's inability to stabilize it's future is about to happen, the event I really fear, then again we must minimize the results.

No nation wants a war in the Middle East right now, but sticking our heads in the sand and praying it all goes away is far more dangerous than talking about the horror of such a war.



 IRAN TRIES TO HIDE BEHIND THE RUSSIANS.

Ahmadinejad talking about the era of slavery in the US is  another indication of just what a nutcase he really is.

Somehow he, like many others, thinks that talking about the US suddenly makes him look stronger or bolder! 

The problem is when he  babbles on like a idiot, it makes him appear just as he is; an Idiot!

Perhaps he has a bad case of 'Little Man' Syndrome as well?

Perhaps he should just stick one hand inside his Jacket?

Ahmadinejad knows all too well that showing up at a meeting with the Russians doesn't mean he will be able to hide under the  Russian Trench coat.

His country is in serious trouble and not one nation he met with today is willing to go to War to save him or Iran.

Russian loves Iran for the simple reason they  buy tons of military hardware from Russia and they have  spent a fortune on the Nuclear Power plant process.

Yep.. A chump with a lot of money to blow..

He is also probably trying to rebuild his image after his month long spat with the real ruler of Iran!

Spewing his incoherent hate speech about Israel and the US is not even playing well with his own people.

As he sits there and babbles away like a moron, the youth of Iran plot the demise of the Iranian Government.

Russia will not help him in a time of War.

The Russian government will not bail him out of a war.

The Russian government will simply wait for whomever takes over after a potential war and ask them how much money they have to rebuild the Iranian military.

Iran's time is short and they know it.

They can leave the region in a real mess and that is why someone will have to deal with them sooner  than most people think.

Maybe his magical  Genie can save him and Iran???

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/15/ahmadinejad-sco-united-front-against-us



THE CLASH FOR CONTROL!

For over three months now, I have tried to figure out who is going to win the bragging rights for the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring.

I still believe several  groups with visions of what the future should look like are trying to lobby for control of the movement.

1.  The Social Revolutionaries coloring the whole event as a battle of  ' social injustices' and oppressive governments.

The 'Redistribution of Wealth' is the end-state based upon the final destruction of tyrannical governments developed and supported by  'Colonial Powers'.

2. the Iranian vision of a 'Persian Empire' based upon an 'Arab awakening'; yep they are the Chief culprits in tying to hijack the 'Arab Awaking' slogan.

Iran is trying to achieving new dominance in the Middle East at the same time they are trying to keep the first mentioned movement, Social Revolutionaries, from infecting Iran's population.

Iran is in a race against time and they know it.

3. The Turks and their drive to become the dominant power in the Middle East.

Watching the intellectuals from all the Universities recommend a 'Turkish style' answer to kicking out the old Monarchies, is exactly what Turkey is looking for.

A 'kinder, gentler, Muslim faith based government is the picture that is being painted.

All three movements have their problems at the moment.

The Social Revolutionaries are great at  passive protesting, but writing a new government requires hard work and that means you can't sit around at the coffee shop all day playing on the internet!

Yes, they are going to have to grow up and face the real world and not the world their ideological Professors have painted for them. Hint.... .Egypt ... How is that new Constitution coming? Seems like I've heard the ' Change' speech before???

Iran; Well Iran is on the edge of pure panic.

Syria is a total nightmare to them and they know they have no real answer other than creating violence somewhere else.

A war with Israel is not the answer and would be the ultimate 'distraction', but that time may be coming.

Turkey seems to have things going their way and of the three movements, they seem to have the best chance of gaining outside support.

The US policy of ' lead from the rear' / hence our actions in Libya, has left the perfect void for Turkey and nobody seems to be that upset with the concept of Turkey taking a leadership role.

It sounds like things could be going Turkey's way, but for one potential disaster.

A sectarian conflict between the Sunni and Shi with a mixture of Persian vs Arab flavor.

Don't forget the GCC is on the verge of building their own version of NATO.

For Turkey to step up as a future leader in the Middle East would provide them a great deal of accreditation, especially in the eyes of the EU, but with that accreditation comes the responsibility of  being a 'leader'.   

Suddenly believing they are ready to take center stage in the Middle East could be a classic example of,

 " be careful of what you ask for".

To the Arab, seeing the Ottoman Empire reemerge could be a huge perception problem.

It is much easier to want to be a 'Leader' than to actually be one!

LEBANON NEW GOVERNMENT

Prime Minister Najib Mikati finally pushed through the Hezbollah dominated government for Lebanon.

The question now becomes, how long does it last?

Rumor has it the STL indictments could be out by the end of June or early July and the news will not be good for Hezbollah.

Having defections  on the same day the new government is announced is probably a sign of things to come.

Given the tensions of the border with Syria and the nervousness of Iran over Syria, the UN is very cognizant of the timing of the STL investigation.

Never the less, I do not predict the UN will delay the findings any longer than they all ready have and it could be certain countries are pushing the UN to release the information sooner rather than later.

The timing of Hezbollah being accused of assassination and the emotions of this topic in Lebanon is a formula  for violence.

As I have said in the past, Iran can ill afford for Hezbollah to get bogged down in a civil war in Lebanon thus taking away a key component of Iran's war plan for Israel.

Keeping Hezbollah and Hamas ready to open multi fronts on Israel's border is the strategic design for Iran.

 Losing influence over Hamas to the MB in Egypt is a troubling aspect of the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring / and Iran must weigh it's options carefully.

The Middle East is a complex game of Chess still and the new government in Lebanon and a pending UN release on the STL are going to be vital pawn movements in the game.

http://www.lebanonnews.net/story.php?rid=46112672