THE CLASH FOR CONTROL!

For over three months now, I have tried to figure out who is going to win the bragging rights for the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring.

I still believe several  groups with visions of what the future should look like are trying to lobby for control of the movement.

1.  The Social Revolutionaries coloring the whole event as a battle of  ' social injustices' and oppressive governments.

The 'Redistribution of Wealth' is the end-state based upon the final destruction of tyrannical governments developed and supported by  'Colonial Powers'.

2. the Iranian vision of a 'Persian Empire' based upon an 'Arab awakening'; yep they are the Chief culprits in tying to hijack the 'Arab Awaking' slogan.

Iran is trying to achieving new dominance in the Middle East at the same time they are trying to keep the first mentioned movement, Social Revolutionaries, from infecting Iran's population.

Iran is in a race against time and they know it.

3. The Turks and their drive to become the dominant power in the Middle East.

Watching the intellectuals from all the Universities recommend a 'Turkish style' answer to kicking out the old Monarchies, is exactly what Turkey is looking for.

A 'kinder, gentler, Muslim faith based government is the picture that is being painted.

All three movements have their problems at the moment.

The Social Revolutionaries are great at  passive protesting, but writing a new government requires hard work and that means you can't sit around at the coffee shop all day playing on the internet!

Yes, they are going to have to grow up and face the real world and not the world their ideological Professors have painted for them. Hint.... .Egypt ... How is that new Constitution coming? Seems like I've heard the ' Change' speech before???

Iran; Well Iran is on the edge of pure panic.

Syria is a total nightmare to them and they know they have no real answer other than creating violence somewhere else.

A war with Israel is not the answer and would be the ultimate 'distraction', but that time may be coming.

Turkey seems to have things going their way and of the three movements, they seem to have the best chance of gaining outside support.

The US policy of ' lead from the rear' / hence our actions in Libya, has left the perfect void for Turkey and nobody seems to be that upset with the concept of Turkey taking a leadership role.

It sounds like things could be going Turkey's way, but for one potential disaster.

A sectarian conflict between the Sunni and Shi with a mixture of Persian vs Arab flavor.

Don't forget the GCC is on the verge of building their own version of NATO.

For Turkey to step up as a future leader in the Middle East would provide them a great deal of accreditation, especially in the eyes of the EU, but with that accreditation comes the responsibility of  being a 'leader'.   

Suddenly believing they are ready to take center stage in the Middle East could be a classic example of,

 " be careful of what you ask for".

To the Arab, seeing the Ottoman Empire reemerge could be a huge perception problem.

It is much easier to want to be a 'Leader' than to actually be one!

LEBANON NEW GOVERNMENT

Prime Minister Najib Mikati finally pushed through the Hezbollah dominated government for Lebanon.

The question now becomes, how long does it last?

Rumor has it the STL indictments could be out by the end of June or early July and the news will not be good for Hezbollah.

Having defections  on the same day the new government is announced is probably a sign of things to come.

Given the tensions of the border with Syria and the nervousness of Iran over Syria, the UN is very cognizant of the timing of the STL investigation.

Never the less, I do not predict the UN will delay the findings any longer than they all ready have and it could be certain countries are pushing the UN to release the information sooner rather than later.

The timing of Hezbollah being accused of assassination and the emotions of this topic in Lebanon is a formula  for violence.

As I have said in the past, Iran can ill afford for Hezbollah to get bogged down in a civil war in Lebanon thus taking away a key component of Iran's war plan for Israel.

Keeping Hezbollah and Hamas ready to open multi fronts on Israel's border is the strategic design for Iran.

 Losing influence over Hamas to the MB in Egypt is a troubling aspect of the 'Tunisian Virus' / Arab Spring / and Iran must weigh it's options carefully.

The Middle East is a complex game of Chess still and the new government in Lebanon and a pending UN release on the STL are going to be vital pawn movements in the game.

http://www.lebanonnews.net/story.php?rid=46112672

ABDULLAH AND JORDAN TRYING TO BUY TIME

Jordan's decision to join the GCC may take on a whole new level of importance.

It could be the King's announcement is a pre cursor to joining the GCC.

Instead of just joining the GCC with the appearance of being inflexible, the King may have set this event into motion  thereby easing the response of announcing the GCC issue.

I find it interesting the MB came out against the King relinquishing all of his powers.

They probably have an attitude of, "one step at a time" and realize such a dramatic  move on the King would only make matters worse.

The MB has is in no hurry.

Just about everything in the Middle East is going their way.

So, does the King's concept of joining the GCC become a 'game changer' for Jordan?

Probably not!

This concept seems to be based more on countering Iran than countering the ' Tunisian Virus'.

That would not alleviate the King's desire to show the people of Jordan he is not simply running away from the reform issue.

What he would be doing is  changing the Jordanian public's attention by introducing the growing threat of Iran!.

One thing is for sure; change is on its way for Jordan!

Will it lead to the King losing his power?

Probably not.

He will never turn to the level of violence that we have witnessed in Egypt, Libya and Syria.

The MB has no real desire to bring Jordan to a level of insurrection; at least not just now.

Who would benefit from such an event is Iran.

Iran's needs are simple.

They need trouble for everyone else in the Middle East other than Syria and Iran.

Yet another chapter to add to the Middle Eastern book of events.

Stay tuned.

This weeks is going to be all about Syria, not Jordan!!

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/06/201161220291224509.html

ALEPPO... A KEY ISSUE FOR THE SYRIAN REVOLT.

The town of Aleppo is now reporting 'protest'.

As stated in the article, perhaps somewhat understated, the town of Aleppo is a key turn in events.

From the viewpoint of Assad, the idea of keeping the 'middle class/ business owning, Sunni population, especially is Aleppo, out of this revolt has been a vital issue.

For the people who make Syria work day to day, the issue of the Sunni business class taking sides in this event is a tipping point.

Two days ago I said the use of rotor wing assets would have to be an option given the desperation level Assad is starting to reach.

Seeing the people of Aleppo take to the streets will only make his panic worse.

Another key event began to take place yesterday and today.

Turkey's threat to open a 'buffer zone' on the border with Syria is a dire warning! 

Countries do not open 'buffer zones' on their own land.

They open them on the land of the country in trouble.

The real message here is Turkey is telling Assad Turkish troops could set foot on Syrian soil!

 This message will not go unnoticed, especially in Iran!!!

Iran can ill afford to have Turkey ether come to the aid of Syria, thus pulling them away from the Iranian sphere of influence, or place troops on Syrian soil, thus showing Iran who the real power broker is in the region.

Remember something I talked about several months ago; the dream of an Iranian / Persian Empire / is NOT the vision of the Turks!

Here is an interesting issue.

What do Iran and Turkey have in common with the events in Syria?

They both are worried about substantial gains for the Kurds.

The Kurds are not going to rest with achieving a slice of Iraq and Syria.

If they can carve out part of their ' Kurdastan',  in Syria and Iraq, then they will be more than inspired to push the issue in Iran and Turkey.

Who helps Syria and how they both deal with the Kurds is going to play itself out over the course of the next few weeks.

My opinion:

Assad is on his last leg and Iran is looking to find someone knew they can deal with in Syria.

It will not be his brother or his Cousin.

Look for Iran to do something soon!

They need a distraction larger than a few protestors being shot at by the IDF.

Bahrain comes back on the table or even Lebanon.

If they don't go the route of the 'distraction', then they must concentrate on finding someone to run Syria that doesn't fall into the arms of Turkey.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/06/11/eyewitness-around-2000-syrian-army-officers-defected/

 TURKEY BECOMES A REFUGEE CAMP!

The numbers continue to climb as more and more Syrians cross into Turkey avoiding Assad's assault on his own towns.

It was noteworthy to see the UN was supporting the process.

Turkey is not happy with the event and what support is left for Assad is quickly slipping away.

The question becomes, how does Turkey prevent these Refugee camps from becoming 'base camps' for the resistance fighters?

Checking for weapons is a process that requires time and coordination.

Depending on how these folks are crossing the border will determine if the fighters can cross with them.

The tactic of leaving the area and then returning when the response force has left is a typical event in what could become 'Guerilla Warfare'.

Given the size of the force Syria is reported to be placing in the area, it would be foolish for the resistance fighters to stay and engage them.

Fighting ' hit and run' tactics is a likely course of action the resistance will execute.

The concept of some armed group operating from Turkey is not a concept the Turkish government will be thrilled with.

The history of the Kurds in Northern Iraq is way too fresh in Turkish leadership's mind.

As to the size of the resistance, some reports today indicated they numbered perhaps as many as two thousand!

Confirmation of their size would be very difficult, but if that number is even close to being accurate, the Syrian military is in for a prolonged event.

Assad is going to have to assess just how long he wants this particular battle to last.

I would not rule out the use of air assets / rotor wing / if the fighting become too intense.

If the number of tanks is truly over thirty, supported by field artillery, then the military may just place the city under siege.

If that type of firepower is utilized, the ability to capture it with the media will surly happen.

As I said two days ago, this event will be unlike any of the others so far in Syria.

Within the next two days, Syria may look more like a live feed from Libya than a simple protest in the streets of a small Syrian town.



IRAN’S VERY DANGEROUS GAME, IF IT IS A GAME!!

Given who runs the website mentioned in this article, one has to remember nothing is done by accident.

No independent thinker decided to get on this very controlled website and babble away on a topic that can easily lead to a war!

So, what is the message behind such an act?

Is Iran looking to see who is watching the website and what response this story may get?

Is it part of a larger message to Israel and the US about how serious Iran is on the topic?

One thing is for sure, Iran is not very good at analyzing how their enemies will respond to Iran’s statements and actions.

Whatever the game / message / is here, it is a very dangerous ploy and Iran will most likely not be prepared for any real reaction that comes from It’s enemies.

That’s not to say anyone is going to do anything based upon a simple post on a website.

What it will do it strengthen the case Israel and the US continue to build against Iran’s nuclear program.

As a good friend of mine always says, “sometimes you have to wait for the next move to understand the first move”.

My hunch is these two articles are interrelated.

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=224149

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/julian-borger-global-security-blog/2011/jun/08/iran-blogging

SYRIA:

Turkey’s growing frustration with Assad’s government did not go unnoticed today.

When you stack Turkey’s frustration with pending UNSC resolutions, Assad has to be wondering just how much longer he can afford to stick with the hard-line game plan his Brother and the Iranian’s have come up with.

I am not insinuating Assad is guilt free on the course of action Syria has traveled in the past two months, but most realize he is not in total control.

He also has to realize he has long passed the point of no return as a leader.

Assad spends everyday realizing he has fewer and fewer options for solving this crisis.

With Iranian leadership whispering in his ear on what his next move should be, Assad will most likely just grow more and more desperate.

He is past the point of pulling away from Iran and dumping his Brother and friends.

He has to living a sinking feeling with each passing hour.

In a word, desperate!!

He may become so desperate that he allows or begs Iran to solve the issue for him.

Remember what I have said for months now about ‘distractions’.

The more desperate the situation in Syria becomes, the more dramatic the ‘distraction’ will have to be.





JISR AL SHUGHUR

It’s clear Assad, or whoever is calling the shots in Syria, is going to assault the town of Jisr al Shughur, the question became, why did it not happen today?

The rumors of defections in the Syrian military have been around for several weeks, but this event may just be a sign of how bad this issue is getting.

I can think of two reasons why the crushing response promised by Assad did not show up today.

1. The Syrian military knows it has a well entrenched enemy with a resolve to fight.

1. That opposition has the advantage of being on the defense, a HUGE advantage to those of you who do not understand the laws of warfare!.

2. They could be supported by military members who have defected.

                                                              i.      Not too many military members decide to defect and not take their weapons with them.

                                                            ii.      When a unit leader, such as the young Officer  shown on Al Jazeera today, defects,  it is not uncommon for a percentage of his forces to go with him.

                                                          iii.      Assad may simply not have the troop density to execute a mission that will call for a four to one advantage; not to mention possibly not being properly equipped for such a conflict.

2. It could be the Syrian military had to swap out what units they plan on reentering the town with.

1. Assad would be crazy to utilize a unit that has already shown a propensity to have defectors in its ranks.

2. To have yet another unit show up and suddenly refuse to attack the opposition would be disastrous for Assad.

Regardless what the reason is and I think one of my two hunches is correct, the next event in Syria may not be like any we’ve seen yet.

SIDE NOTE:

It appears there was a violent reaction in the Palestinian camps in Syria, over  the past two days.

It seems the parents of the young Palestinians killed in the NAKSA protest are upset the PA authority in the camps allowed their youth to be killed for the sake of drawing the attention away from events in Syria.

It’s even rumored Assad had them paid to take part in the event.

The last thing Assad can deal with is a Palestinian uprising in Syria.

Talk about the Law of Unintended Consequences!!!

You can bet the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood  / SMB/ will take advantage of this event.

It’s ok for the young Palestinian kids in the camps of Syria to die for the SMB but heaven forbid they should be sacrificed for the sake of Assad!!!