NOW WHAT?

All day long the media has covered the death of UBL  and has done a good job of posing the real question, “what does it mean”?

Answers have ranged from his movement has been dealt a possible mortal blow to nothing will really change.

The old cliché of “only time will tell” is probably as good an answer as any.

What I’ve not heard a great deal of detail on is how  his death has tactically impacted his movement.

Lets look at a few facts about disruption operations and the second order effects they usually have.

1. Lets assume, and the press has even talked about this today, the Team that carried out the mission was able to recover valuable information from the compound.

It’s is very common for the followers or partners of a criminal movement to be  rendered ineffective for a period of time after a successful operation on one of it’s members or especially it’s leadership.

Why is this?

Simple; the other members don’t know what information was obtained and they always assume the worst!

What information did UBL have with him and do his followers know what that information was?

Criminals run paranoid and his followers are paranoid beyond belief right now.

“ I’m next”, becomes the overriding concern for all of those that were in contact with him.

Place that paranoia on top of news reports saying “actionable information was obtained from the compound” and I would bet you there is full fledge panic in many parts of the network.

This will not last forever, but it will last long enough for the agencies searching for his followers to take additional actions if at all possible.

In other words, the operation creates a limited window of additional opportunities.

That is where we stand as of today.

What follow on events or intelligence can be developed and how fast can it be analyzed?  

All of this keeps UBL’s followers off balance and on the Defense, we hope!!

After this period is over, the real issues becomes, did his network have “mission ready” operations that can be executed quickly?

It’s a question that must be part of the overall process being conducted right now.

So, did UBL have missions ready to execute and did his follower have contingency plans for his capture or death?

Again, there seem to be several theories on these two questions and opinions are all over the map.

What needs to happen is what I speculate is just what is happening right now.

We must anticipate he did have missions ready to execute or at least close enough to execution that they can be put into motion.

We must assume that some of  his network  had planned for the event of something happening  to him.

The theory of “plan for the worst and hope for the best” applies here.

This is where the paranoia factor of his followers not knowing what information was obtained from his compound comes into play.

Very well disciplined units might be able to fight off the paranoia and push to execute an attack.

That explains why the US government didn’t wait to warn everyone to be careful starting as soon as the announcement came out.

The other thing that should be considered is the traditional ‘mourning period’ for his followers.

If many of the devout believers are true to their faith, they will mourn him for several days and then set out to avenge him.

Last but surly not least, we need to think about what we commonly call the ‘ low hanging fruit’ members, or what I like to call the “ Wanna Be” groups.

Finding actionable information on a ‘lone wolf’ mental patient who is so upset over UBLs death that he or she just starts killing anyway they can is nearly impossible to do!

In reality, for the foreseeable future these are the ones to be truly worried about.

One thing is for sure; the chapter of UBL as an individual is over.

The chapter of UBL the Martyr has just started.



THE WEEK AHEAD

ISRAEL:

Last week was not good news for Israel and the repercussions will reflect on all of us who look at the Middle East for Oil.

Egypt announcement the checkpoints to Gaza will be opened did not sit well with Israel and this week will give us an indication of how they plan to respond to this announcement.

Most of us realize that talk is often cheap in the Middle East and the talk of Egypt opening these checkpoints and sending ‘security teams’ into Gaza  could be just an extension of this opinion.

Israel still maintains a ‘working’ relationship with the Egyptian Military and until the MB forces the Egyptian Military to change, this relationship will help head off potential flare ups.

SYRIA:

Assad made every bad possible decision he could possibly make last week shy of using his air force to bomb his own cities!

More and more rumors of Iranian intervention are showing up in the open press and blogs.

As I have stated for weeks now, Iran can not afford to have Assad and Syria fall to the MB or any other Sunni movement.

The worse things get in Syria, the more Iran may choose truly desperate options to counter the event.

Look for Syria to continue blaming the March 14^th movement in Lebanon for problems in Syria.

Look for the Sunni of Lebanon to call for Assad to stop pointing his finger at Lebanon and look for them to bring more media attention to the violence in Syria.

Look for the MB to position themselves as the potential leaders of resistance in Syria; an issue that will infuriate the Iranians and Assad.

Egypt:

Egypt pops back on my radar  this week.

The MB is about to decide to shoot for a larger slice of the pie in the next election.

There will be no more talk of ’30 percent’.

The new target will be 50 percent.

That may very well be overlooked by most of the Western world, but it should not be.

50 percent can easily become over 50 percent and over 50 percent is a ‘majority’ elected in an ‘Democratic’ election.

Do you remember the 2006 Hamas election results?

Bad news  for the West and Israel.

It’s May and the temperatures are going to go way up in the Middle East.

Hot days turn into violent nights!

SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FROM THIS PAST WEEK

The articles listed below cover two major topics that pose a significant challenge for all of those interested in the Middle East.

1.  The so called reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah and what it means to the rest of the world / Israel.

2. Syria and the real possibility of a civil war.

As you read the first two articles, pay close attention to the issue of Egypt's involvement in the Hamas / Fatah issue.

I have no doubt the potential new leaders in Egypt are going to change the relationship with Israel and their interaction in the PA issue, so soon after their own period of upheaval, is puzzling to many.

 As I continued to read, I found two topics very disturbing.

A. Egypt announcing it will send a 'Peacekeeping Team' to Gaza!

B. Egypt is going to open the checkpoints into Gaza!  

Two very bold and emotional moves that I seriously doubt Israel was consulted on.

How Israel will react to all three of these events this  week, the two above and the agreement between Hamas and Fatah, will be very important to the near future of the region.

On Positive note; I don't believe for a moment Hamas and Fatah / PA / are going to hold hands and dance in the rain.

The problem will be the amount of damage they can do in a short period of time.

If you read the third article attached, you will begin to realize the Israelis are

preparing for the arrival of the ' Tunisian Virus'.

The PA youth has been demanding a unification of Hamas and Fatah for several months for the simple purpose of collectively marching on Israel!

As I said before, Iran would support this process for the simple reason it applies pressure on a region of the Middle East other than Syria and Iran.

Egypt's part in making this happen is nothing more than the MB showing they are going to shape the future of Egypt.

It all spells very bad news for the rest of the world and the price of oil in the near future.

You let the speculators think Cairo scale events may be about to take place in the West Bank and Gaza and the price of Oil will soar.

2. SYRIA:

The last story I have attached to this post talks to an dangerous sign inside of Syria.

For several days now I have been watching the story of large numbers of Syrian military defections and the insuring gun battle shortly there after.

I have no doubt the additional tanks that were dispatched to Deraa were a direct result of unit level defections.  

When Military organizations begin to fire on themselves, Civil War is close at hand.

We in the US know this, but more importantly Iran knows this!

So, the drag race is on..

Can Iran get the PA issue into the streets of Israel before Syria breaks down into a Civil War?

Let's see that this week will bring!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/palestinian-prime-minister-hamas-fatah

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/28/egypt-revolution-players-palestinian-pieces

http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=218274

http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-if-the-rumours-and-conspiracies-are-true-then-president-assads-regime-is-on-the-road-to-civil-war-2275155.html

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011429155947718117.html



WILL  AHMADINEJAD  JUMP  TO  THE  "RESISTANCE "

I posted this about two weeks ago when I saw an article about tensions
between the two leaders in Iran.

http://coldansviewpoint.blogspot.com/2011/04/iranian-squabble-in-past-i-have.html

 As you read the story from this morning, start to wrap your mind around the
concept that Iran is growing more and more worried about the 'Tunisian
Virus' coming to Iran.

 Ahmadinejad  may be the 'setup guy' for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei if  Khamenei
decides Iran needs someone to blame  for possible unrest.

 To put it simply, Ahmadinejad maybe  tossed under the bus if things turn bad
in Iran.

 There has never been a great relationship between the two.

 You may not see Khamenei talking bad about Ahmadinejad  in the Iranian
press, not just yet, but the Supreme Council could start to hack away at
him.

 Look at the comments in this story about Ahmadinejad's Chief of Staff!

 Ahmadinejad could be taking the blame for  Syria ineffectively dealing with
its issues.

 Yesterday I speculated Iran was behind the sudden signing between Hamas and
Fatah.

 I based that on my theory Iran is looking for a 'distraction' in the Middle
East to take the pressure off of events in Syria.

 The Hamas / Fatah announcement, especially being held in Cairo, is a
scalable  event that allows Iran to determine the amount of anxiety it
creates in the Middle East and the West.

 Put yesterday's announcement together with today's story and you potentially
have a real storm in the making.

Why would Ahmadinejad make the jump?

Two of the attached articles do a great job at depicting Ahmadinejad and his Chief of Staff as Persian Iranians, not just Muslims.

Ahmadinejad is no fool, he knows he is being set up to be a fall guy and the future of Iran / Persian Empire / not the Muslim / Shi  movement is his top concern.

He is fist and foremost a Nationalist and Khamenei knows it!

Both of them are trying to figure out how to survive what they both know is coming!

The 'Tunsian Virus'.

The Virus may provide them the opportunity to do each other in.

Both may no longer be trying to prevent the Virus from spreading to Iran.

They are both trying to 'weaponize' it to their advantage.

This all goes back to my most fundamental fear of events in the Middle East;
the fear Iran is growing more desperate by the day.

 Internal fighting between two key members of Iranian government is a real
indicator just how bad things are getting.

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/27/ahmadinejad-absence-fuels-talks-of-iran-political-crisis/

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/27/iran-president-supreme-leader-rift

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/21/ahmadinejad-iran-successor-wikileaks



SCALABLE  'DISTRACTION'?

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011427152119845721.html

Was the sudden agreement between Fatah and Hamas the distraction Iran was looking to create?

Could it be Iran intended for the distraction event to be a scalable process there by giving them the option of turning off the distraction if it got out of hand or if it no longer became necessary?

Why do I consider this "Historic Agreement" to be a scalable event?

Hamas and Fatah coming to an agreement and doing so in Cairo would and did anger the Israeli government, yet most of the world realizes these are just words and the Arabs have had hundreds of 'agreements' on thousands of issues.

Short version; anouncing an agreement is a far cry from actually forming a 'joint government'.

Words are cheap especially in the Middle East.

Double cross is a common middle sir name there.

Yet, Iran knows simply having Hamas and Fatah announce such an event will draw  attention to the Israeli reaction.

The harder the Israeli government reacts, the more  attention it will get from the Arab world.

Thus; did Iran execute their desired 'distraction' without risking violent reaction?

My bet is this could be the case.

Could Iran initiate such a plan?

You bet!

The phone call may have gone something like this;  Abd al-Aziz Rantis gets a phone call and

in that phone call he is told by Iran  to make a temporary peace with Fatah and then make a big deal of the announcement and to do so in Cairo.

Sound far fetched?

Don't think it could not happen.

Ok; So why does this agreement worry Israel and as such get them to react creating a distraction?

Simple; Israel and those who really follow the Middle East, understand that a unified PA is the preliminary step needed to create the march on Israel for PA independence.

Abbas has known for months the youth of the PA wants the split to end in order to create a unified front for forcing Israel into a corner.

The loss of his protector Mubarak all but sealed Abbas' fate on resisting Hamas.

What changed was Hamas thinking they needed to meet Abbas halfway.

Iran changed that for them!

What does it all mean?

It means we are now closer than we have been to seeing, eventually, a Cairo type protest movement in the West Bank and Gaza.

Keeping that movement out of the streets of Israel will be difficult.

If you don't believe me, look at how quickly Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the announcement today.



CRACKS  IN  THE  SYRIAN  ARMOR!

Two predictions from yesterday's post are coming true.

1. The question of 'Why Libya and Not Syria'?

Without being disrespectful to the US leadership, the answers covered in this news story are weak at best and do not speak to the real issue.

I have always believed and always will believe the truth is the only thing you can tell the American public and the truth is Syria's direct ties to Iran make it far too dangerous to even contemplate taking any type of action.

The  threat of a 'Regional War' is what would be at stake.

I am not talking about an Iraqi or Afghanistan type event , not even a Desert Storm action.

To take action against Syria would almost certainly result is a regional war that would engulf all of the Middle East and create world wide repercussions.

This would be a conflict unlike anything the world has seen since 1968, 72 or perhaps WWII.

Iran would not stand for 'Western' actions on Syria and the retaliation would certainly involve Israel and the Gulf States.

Oil production would most likely come to a standstill.

Just think of the economic repercussions of a regional war in the Middle East?

So, when the Arab world ask, "why not Syria", the answer needs to be the truth, "There is more at stake than the freedom of the Syrian, Sunni, people".

http://www.cnn.com/2011/US/04/26/u.s..libya.syria/index.html?iref=NS1

2.  Rumors of defections in the Syrian military.

As I said last night, I seriously doubt the Syrian military, mostly made up of Sunni members, will open murder the public, Sunni, of Syria.

Assad and Iran know this and how they deal with it is a real concern.

It's one of the key reasons the West can hold off on even contemplating 'action' against Syria.

One true statement in the report mention above is the fact that things are not totally out of control, yet!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/meast/04/25/syria.security.forces/index.html      

Another aspect of the Syrian military actions that cannot be overlooked is the possible mobilizatoin process.

The fact the Syrian Military is being utilized to some degree in response to civil unrest does not mean the entire 'machine' is being spun up!

The West and Israel is paying very close attention to what parts of the military are being utilized and what parts are being placed in ready status.

If part of the Syrian, Iranian plan to deal with this uprising is to prepare for a greater conflict, then parts of both militaries will be making preparations.

The good news is, this is very hard to do without the US and others recognizing what is going on.

Trust me, this issue is going to be watched very carefully.

Conclusion:

Syria's indicator needle is pointing down and moving towards pointing straight down!

Keep an eye on the stories of 'defections' over the next two or three days and be paying very close attention to what Friday afternoon, our time, brings to the news.

The US media is starting to catch on how important Syria is to the great Middle East issue and I am willing to bet the attention is going to shift more and more.

Iran really needs that ' distraction event' I have been predicting!



SYRIA  AND THE ARAB QUESTION TO THE WEST.

As I said last night, Assad has committed his reserves both politically and tactically.

When a civilian population sees Tanks in the streets and their barrels pointed at them not at an invading enemy, then a country is all but lost!   

I cannot believe Assad has made this decision without close consultation with Iran.

If Iran is willing to risk the loss of its closest 'proxy' ally, than it is probabbly preparing for other actons as well.

It will be clear within a day or two if the leadership and more importantly the  enlisted ranks, of the Syrian Military is going to stay with Assad's plan to murder his own people in mass.

Rumors were flying this evening of key military Commanders jumping ship!

When troops see 'leaders' walking away, they will not be far behind.

If these stories are true, the full panic of the Iranian government will be visible shortly afterwords.

Nothing and I mean nothing will be off the table for Iran if the Syrian military begins to fold.

In my opinion, the most dangerous period of the last four months is about to take place.

For the US and it's Allies, the Arab world, Sunni to be exact, is about to ask a key question.

" Why is Syria different from Libya"?

"Because it just is", will not be an answer the US or the UN can sell to the Arab world.

http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/25/fisk-assads-war-is-moving-perilously-close-to-lebanon/