CHAMOUN  CALLS  IT  LIKE  HE  SEES  IT!!!

Wow; what a gutsy not to mention strategic move by Chamoun!

 I've been saying for a long time if we ever want to keep the entire
Middle East from falling into the hands of a radical Persian Empire, we had to insure
the Arabs understood the true threat of Persian's wanting to rule  the
Arabs again.

 Many Arabs have believed in the Persian threat for years, but events had not
risen to the level of needing to draw the dividing line not to mention the  the PA/ Israeli conflict took center stage.

 Iran's nuclear weapons program was the beginning for several key Arab
countries to realize the time may be coming to play the "Persian Card".

 Saudi has been quietly working this philosophy for years along with Jordan
and a few of the Gulf Nations.

 For Chamoun to feel  now is the time, with all that is going on in the
Middle East, to play the "Persian Card" in Lebanon is fascinating.

 Perhaps he sees  the events in Syria and the possibility of them spreading to Iran as an oprotunity to counter Iranian inflenece in Lebanon.

His movement knows  Jordan and Saudi  will support  everything they  can conjure up to keep Iran off balance.

One thing is for sure, Lebanon is not going the way Iran and Hezbollah want
it to.

 The question now becomes, what does Iran do about it?

 Between stirring the pot with Israel over the past week by giving Hamas on
other's their marching orders for limited attacks on Israel  and Israel not
overreacting, as Iran hopped it would, and now Assad killing more people in
peaceful protest, Iran is growing more desperate by the day.




http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/11/chamoun-hezbollah-is-a-persian-party/#



Oh ya. Watch what happens in Iran when they devalue their currency again.



ISRAEL DOESN'T TAKE THE BAIT!

Lots of rumbling today about Israel giving in to the ceasefire proposal with the PA.

I'm not sold on Israel giving in on anything.

I think what they have done is figured out the Iranian 'game plan' for distracting events from Syria.

In my opinion, Israel has not taken the bait!

Now; that poses an interesting problem for Iran.

What to do when the other side won't fight back?

Don't forget the PA understands just like Hezbollah does, they are pawns in Iran's game of statesmanship.

Shi and Sunni get along until it's time to betray each other or find a new convenient ally.

So, what does Iran do if Israel doesn't take the media's eye off of Syria?

Good question!!

Lets watch over the next few days and see what happens!   



http://www.debka.com/article/20831/

IS IRAN TAKING THE NEXT STEP?

Well, things continue to get more and more desperate for Syria and over the past 24 hrs they have taken even a more dramatic change for the worse.

Rumor has it the number killed in the past 24 hrs is much higher than it has been for two weeks.

A sure sign Assad is losing his battle to keep the lid on Syria.

What makes matters worse for him, is Iran breathing down his neck on what he should and shouldn't be doing.

So, it is obvious Iran has ordered what I have been predicting for several weeks now.

Hamas and Hezbollah have been given instructions to turn up the heat with Israel and the past 48hrs shows just how dramatic that has happened.   

Remember, the only ace in the hole Iran has for problems in Syria, and eventually  Iran, is a major distraction.

Hamas and to some degree Hezbollah have begun a campaign that could easily lead to Israel striking harder than they have since the 2008 conflict. In my opinion, the actions taken by Israel today are the most saver in three years and they are more than likely going to increase their operations.

Is this the beginning of Iran starting a conflict to attempt to save Syria from open revolution?

It is very possible!

A million people taking the bomb shelters in Israel is not a typical Saturday afternoon event.

Two things will need to happen to see this operation really intensify.

1. Iran must believe that Assad is about to lose control of Syria.

2. Israel must decide the time has come to remove the threat of Hamas from Gaza.

I find it hard to believe Israel will move to neutralize Hamas without taking action against Hezbollah in Lebanon as well.

To do this, they will have to mobilize a significant portion of their military.

That is the thing  to watch for.

If you hear news articles, on BBC or Al Jazzera, CNN and FOX are drunk on the budget right now, then really bad times may be near at hand for the Middle East.

Something else to watch; the price of a barrel of oil in the next 24 to 48 hrs.

That's a real clue.

Oil Speculators do not live in a vacuum.

They know as many people as the CIA/ or the Department of State.



ASSAD  FOLLOWs  THE  'VIRUS'  PATH!

Remember a few weeks ago when I talked about the four phases of the 'Tunisian Virus'?

Well, Assad is still trying to expand on the ' concessions' phase.

As Assad gives ground again, he continues to realize how much trouble his
government could really be in.

 Like Libya, only the core of his military is loyal to him.

  The rest being Sunni are questionable at best.

 Making concessions and taking actions that gives the appearance  as if Syria is moving away from being a secular state is not the goal of the Sunni / MB. 

It will not solve his problems.

 He knows this, and he knows where all this is leading Syria.

 He also understands his actions must  be blessed off on by Iran.

 If not, then he is striking out on his own and
Iran will become even more upset with events in Syria.

Assad options are few are far between and he knows it.

Better yet, Iran knows it.

The Sunni 'Wave' is growing larger and Iran's Shi know it!

 http://www.yalibnan.com/2011/04/06/syria-reverses-ban-on-islamic-veil-closes
-its-only-casino/#



THE 'TUNISIAN VIRUS' TRIES AGAIN IN THE AMERICAS

I have been watching for signs of the 'Tunisian Virus' spreading to Central
or South America and frankly to the US for two months now.

 The attached  article could be seen as a 'smoke detector' event.

 As I have been saying for months now, viruses mutate. 

 What forms the center of a 'cause' in the Middle East or North Africa, might not be replicated
line for line somewhere else, but the concept of social disorder growing
more and more popular can be the common theme.

 For four years now I have watched the Drug Wars in Mexico not from the
perspective of how do you stop the drugs, but what impact does the war have
on the social fiber of Mexico?



The 'Causes / issues ' in Central and South America during the early 80s
were not near as important as the actual changes that resulted  from  the
prolonged violence.

 The worse thing the US government can possibly do is underestimate the fact
this protest or others similar to are taking place in Mexico.

 "OH.. Mexico has always had protest. "

"AHHH. Mexico has been like this for years... ect.ect."

 These are the words of the same people who never saw or predicted the
trouble ripping apart the Middle East and North Africa  today.

 Is the 'Tunisian Virus' beginning in Mexico?

 Who knows, but the population is frustrated and our enemies see yet another
chance to draw the US's attention away from other parts of the world.

I hope someone is paying attention.




WHO SHOT WHO IN SYRIA TODAY?

All the buzz today was about the two Police Officers being shot at the protest just outside Damascus Syria today.  

Some reported 'unknown gunmen' fired on the crowd striking two Police Officers.

That's a great storyline if you need to Government to look like the 'good guys'.

Some reported 'unknown gunmen' who were part of the protest fired upon the Police.

Another great storyline if you need the Government to look like the good guys.

Let's look at another possibility and who would benefit from it.

Now when the shots rang out in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, Saudi, Algeria ect... ect..

everyone was ready to accept the fact it was the 'Government' that did the shooting.

In Egypt even when it appeared the shooting was coming from in the crowd towards the protestors, it was still widely reported it had to have been Government agents planted into the crowd to make it appear the innocent rebels were turning violent!

So where did this 'concept/ theory' disappear to today?

Is it possible that one of the most oppressive regimes in the world, Syria, could devise such a clever act after watching the same thing happen for the past three months all over the Middle East and North Africa?

I am going to go out on a limb here and say, 'yep', I think they could!!!

So; why didn't this 'twist' show up in the media today?

I will tell you why I am worried it didn't show up.

I believe, as DEBKA stated this week, some countries may be adopting a policy of, "better the Devil you know then the Devil you don't know".

How much 'revolution' is too much 'revolution'?

I've asked this question before, but Syria may be adding validity to the argument.

I have talked about how dangerous this Syrian event can become.

Syria means more to Iran than all the others put together.

Perhaps other countries are starting to realize this.

Perhaps the concept of 'Democracy' in Syria is a Bridge too far... yet?

Perhaps, but the Sunni have a vote and the Kurds as well.

It's not over yet.