SAUDI MAKES IT'S FIRST MOVE!

Well; three weeks ago, I was betting Saudi would move into Bahrain if need be.

Yesterday they moved in.

The fact they moved with military forces not police members is probably based upon their preexisting plan with Bahrain. 

 The Gulf States have a compact with each other. It was originally designed to counter Iraq moving into Kuwait again.  I would think this is the pretence for moving Saudi and probably UAE units into Bahrain. UAE or other Gulf state troops will be nothing more than a token force to show it is not just Saudi acting unilaterally.

Iran will have a canned press announcement given they anticipated this taken place.  They will also script a response for the Shi instigators to get in front of the cameras with.  

I find it fascinating, that if the horrific events in Japan would not have happened, the site of Saudi units crossing the causeway bridge into Bahrain  would have caused the price of a barrel of oil to shoot up probably to   over 120 dollars a barrel; when it fact it is going down today.

The pressure on the price of fuel may be impacted by the events in Japan, but the fuse is still burning in the Middle East.

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS

So what's it going to take to head off the "Tunisian Virus" leading to open hostilities in Israel?

If you don't believe the 'end state' of the uprisings in the Middle East is not angry mobs marching on Israel, you need to look at buying some Oceanfront  property in Arizona.

Iran will not rest until the ' day of rage' is a week of violence in Jerusalem.

Israel knows this and so does the Us, at least I think the Us knows this. I wouldn't place any bets, but we can hope!

I know I have already talked about the relationship that may have to develop between Saudi and Israel to keep the " Persian Empire" from forming, but I have struggled with figuring out how this might come about..   

The common bound is the simple truth that nether country believes they can count on the US during the crisis.

I'm not totally sure that is true, but I do understand their concerns.

Perception is reality and the perception in Israel and Saudi is they cannot depend on the US.

So what do they have to offer each other?

This is the part I didn't talk about before.

Saudi has one huge strategic as well as tactical aspect to Israel's planning for Iran.

Location... Location... Location.!!!

Israel may not be able to launch strikes from Saudi, but quietly being able to cross its airspace and utilize the air bases for refueling would drastically shorten the attack scheme.

In the typical fashion of Arab State of Affairs, Saudi would deny and deny again any support or even knowledge of Israel Air Operations over on Saudi soil.

Somewhat like when I worked 30 miles outside of Mecca and listen to the King announce no Americans were on Saudi ground!!

Ok; short and sweat!

Saudi needs help to stave off what they know is coming.

Israel must prevent the "Tunisian Virus" from developing into  "days of Rage" in Israel.

Here is the problem.

They are running out of time.

This will not happen overnight and the 'Virus' is moving much faster than both of them are planning.

The window of this alliance is not going to last long.

Side note:

I have watched the Libyan 'Rebels' potentially change their tactics in the past 24 hrs.

This could be the first sign of my prediction of 'new leadership' taking the over in their cause.

Yep, the alliance with the Radicals may be underway, but I want to watch a few tactical issues over the next day or so to prove to myself this is true.

Hint; keeping the Media away from the 'Rebel' frontlines is a possible first sign of the 'change'.

We will see.



 UNDER THE COVER OF A CATASTROPHE. " Inshalla".

The Mad Dog is ever the opportunist and this time is no exception.

You don't last over forty two years as a Dictator and not know how to "maximize' what goes on in the world.

The drag race is now set.

Can he crush the 'rebels' before the eyes come off of Japan and the Arab League gets its act together.

Here is a hint, one of those two is never going to happen. Inshalla:)

The Mad Dog is not the only one to take advantage of the events in Japan.

Yemen dropped the hammer on the protesters for the past two days and most  of the world is  none the wiser.

So; what takes place this week?

Yemen:

I put my money on Yemen being the next real fire!

All the right elements are there.

guns, idiots, UBL's boys, tyrannical leaders.

Sometime this week, the 'resistance' is going to start shooting back.

That will make the media happy.

Libya:

The Mad Dog has to start figuring something out.

What does he do if he wins?

I'm not sure he is really developing a plan and I'm real sure the rest of the world is just as unprepared.

Saudi:

The 'Tunisian Virus is still growing in the 'host'.

The right mutation has not taken place as of yet, but my bet is will happen.

Bahrain:

The next fire after Yemen.

Iran's fingers are all over this one and the Saudis are going to have to start painting that picture very soon or they are not going to get out in front of the information war.

Japan is a calamity that the world will watch for several days yet and that means all sides in the Middle East are plotting their next moves. 



RUNNING INTO THE ARMS OF THE REAL ENEMY!

Last night, I mentioned the Libyan 'Rebels' could very well end up aligning with the true enemy, the fanatical Muslims.

This still may not happen, but I would still place my bets on some version of this event taking place.

The 'rebels' could be more than desperate within the next 48 hrs and they will have two basic options.

            1.  Surrender, unconditionally; not likely given they know the history of the Mad Dog and his               enemies.

            2.  Falling into the arms of the fanatics.  

Determining what will happen under the fist scenario is drop dead easy.  The key members are rounded up and killed. the rest are placed in a camp.

It's scenario number two that has a complex side to it.

If the 'rebels' ( I keep placing them in quotations given that is a title someone else has tagged  on them that I don't happen to agree with), allow the fanatics to take tactical control of their fight, they will be pulled in one of two directions.

            1. The Beirut Lebanon Option.

                        If you remember how the ten years of Beirut executed, I don't need to explain much here.

                                    I don't have a lot of confidence in this option for the 'rebel / fanatic alliance given                          what a ruthless individual the Mad Dog is. He will not stand for it!

                        If you don't know what I'm talking about, Google is my answer:)

            2.  The classic world of "LIC" / Ok; I will help you out with this one.

            LIC / Low Intensity Conflict!.

                        The UBL  " A Game" : think of the last nine years in Afghanistan.

                        Hit and run, IEDs. ect... ect..  No real enemy to react to. They just fade into the                                       population.

                        Again, the Mad Dog will move hard against this type of operation, but he will be in a                                 very wounded position even when he does win this current Civil War and will have to                           take his time turning back up the heat.

The Mad Dog might crush the rebellion in its current form, but the next phase will be based on violence for an extended period of time.



So now what?

Mad Dog has the 'Rebels' on the run.

The Arabs will never accept US or EU intervention even though they want him gone!

Is the US in a " you can't win" scenario?

It sure seems like it.

Most people are starting to realize a ' no fly zone' is a pipe dream.

I heard our leadership say today nobody can arm the 'rebels' because we don't know who they really are?

This is what we call in Police work a CLUE!!!!  Glad to see someone was reading my work:)

So, back to my original question; now what?????

Let's take a look at a few options:

1. Mad Dog regains the East and ask the 'rebels' to put down their arms? 

            Don't count on it until the 'rebels' realize they are going to be completely overrun and the desertion rates go way up.  Oh.. in a few days, It  will go WAY UP. Most will try and blend in  and act like they were on the sidelines the whole time.

            Here is a 'CLUE' The Mad Dog has his 'eyes and ears / spies / inside their ranks as I write this.

            He has not stayed in power as a ruthless Dictator for over forty years by being stupid.  

2. The 'Rebels' take on new desperate leadership; Code for the Fundamentalist!!!

            Why? Because they don't know what the hell they are doing and they are going to panic in the  next few days.

            If this happens, the tempo of the whole fight will change.

3. Guerilla  Warfare becomes the next option.

            This is where I would place my bets if I was in Vegas!!!

            The 'rebels, what's left of them in a few days, will gravitate towards those who will step up and     offer their 'services'.

            Desperate men will take desperate deals and this is the deal I believe they will take.

Tomorrow night I will talk about how the fight will change if this allinece takes place.

Oh ya; watch the talking heads and see if they come up with this theory. I think they are hacking my blog page:)



CONCESSIONS AND MORE CONCESSIONS.

Saudi, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, Kuwait, ect....ect...

All of these are in the process of trying to fight off the 'Tunisian Virus'.

What's the old saying, 'Give an inch.... take a mile'!!!

I can't tell you how much the leaders of these countries are starting to really panic.

Saudi will try and draw a line in the sand, I know cheesy, with Bahrain, but I just don't see what the King can do to fend off the opposition.  

Oman is a Goose that will take longer than Bahrain to cook, but it's in the pot.

Yemen will go next, Yemen could easily be the lead story over Libya in just a few days.

Oh ya, that is driving the Saudis wild just as much as Bahrain. Don't forget where Yemen is located.

Kuwait has little to work with other than praying the attention goes to Saudi before it comes to them.

Problems in Saudi may force the hands of the major players before Kuwait has to face the full blown 'Virus'.

I have posted two links to two very important stories.

One has to deal with Saudi and how they are trying to appease those who will be un appeasable.

The other is the most important of the two. It deals with the PA and Israel. A great snap shot into a very scary future.

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12663240

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/03/20113591155659973.html



THE LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES!

Over the weekend the chatter of supporting the 'rebels' in Libya continued to grow.

I've already explained why the concept of enforcing a 'no fly zone' is far more difficult not to mention risky than most people think.

So; let's talk about  yet another great idea circulating out there in the land of political tacticians and talking heads.

Let me start with the punch line up front.

Arming the 'rebels' is a catastrophically stupid idea!!!

If anyone has been paying attention to the news clips, ignore all the jabber especially from the reporters and look at what the pictures tell you.

When I see a anti aircraft gun being manned by what appears to be the village idiot twirling around and around on the gun like a four year old, it gives you an idea as to why the Mad Dog may die of old age in his capital.

Oh ya; and all the firing rounds into the air, not stopping to realize those rounds have to come down somewhere.... yep... you get the picture.....

So let's think about this for a minute.

Let's suppose the US or the EU provides weapons to the 'rebels' the spinning idiots, does anyone think for a minute these weapons will be tactically utilized? the FIRST CLUE!!!!

Now, let's suppose 'others' are beginning to enter Libya, standing in the shadows just waiting for the right moment in time to turn the tide in the direction they want it. Yep; I've talked about these guys a few days ago.

So; here is how the event goes down.

" I understand you and your 'brothers' are not really militarily trained. Please allow me and my 'brothers' to help you in this great cause".

Do you get the picture yet?

Those that do not know how to fight will gravitate towards those that do and are willing to help them.

This is where the real 'enemy' inserts themselves.

When the dust clears, the young have done the hard work and the radicals are armed by the West!!!

If you don't think this can happen, then you have not been paying attention to Africa for the past thirty years.  

Just think if the US government woke up one morning and realized UBL's followers have been equipped by the US AGAIN!!! It was called Afghanistan the first time. 

Oh ya, those young Libyan 'rebels' that they swore to help, they will be enslaved once again

Tomorrow night's topic is going to be Saudi..

Hint; it's not going well and could get much, much worse soon!!!