http://www.stl-tsl.org/

Ok: for those of you who don't know what the Special Tribunal for Lebanon is / STL/ try the link attached.

Why is this event important?

Up until the Tunisian Virus events of the past month, the STL process was quickly leading to the very real threat of organized violence in Lebanon that could and still can lead to open conflict between Israel and Iran / Syria / Lebanon / Hamas / Hezbollah. 

What is it? Here is the cheap version, but I would recommend you read the link.  

In 2005, the Leader of Lebanon was murdered, along with many others, by a huge car bomb. It is common knowledge that Hezbollah was responsible for the event, but with backing from Syria and Iran.

The Government of Lebanon requested an investigation by the UN to determine who was responsible for the event.

Well; the findings are about to be made public and several key members of Hezbollah are probably going to be named as the primary suspects.

Hezbollah / Syria / Iran  all know this will seriously hinder the Iranian master plan of having a Iranian controlled, proxy government in control of Lebanon.

Why does Iran want a "controlled" government in Lebanon? Look at the borders of Israel and see if you can figure it out.

If everything goes to Iran's plan, they will have Hamas on one side, Hezbollah on the other and now possibly a anti Israeli government in Egypt. Yep, one that may not be pro Iranian, but one they can secretly work with to conspire against their common enemy; Israel. If you don't think this can happen, look at the Iranian relationship with OBL's people. Never forget one of the oldest sayings in the Middle East, "the enemy of my enemy is my friend".

Ok; back to the STL! 

As of a few days ago, the Iranians and Hezbollah had the perfect distraction from the STL pending event; Egypt.  What worries them now is two issues.

                1.  The events in Egypt seem to be stabilizing and the US has woken up to the disastrous policy                of running around demanding that Mubarak leave now.

                2.  The United Nations Tribunal is speeding up their timeline for release of its investigation.

                Why are they speeding up the timeline you might ask?

                                a.  They realize the maneuver Hezbollah pulled last month of dissolving the government                                           coalition in Lebanon is simply a preemptive strike to avoid the STL findings. The STL is                                                 Something the UN has worked too hard for  to prove their value to the rest of the world.                                            They are out to prove to the world the UN is capable of investigating international                                        incidents and holding a trial. Scary concept in many ways.

Ok; what is the point of this discussion?

If the STL is successful, and I believe they will be, in naming names in Hezbollah that should stand trial for the events in 2005, then Hezbollah as a potential, acceptable political party in Lebanon is all but wrecked.  If that happens, Iran loses a strategic part of their master plan for warfare with Israel. Think of it as the old Soviet Empire losing a key Warsaw Pack Satellite  country.

Here is, in my opinion, the crazy part of this whole STL event.

If the STL is somehow defeated or doesn't have the impact of removing Hezbollah from the political arena, then Israel could be faced with a three front war if they have a conflict with Iran.

If Israel sees Hezbollah / Iran / Syria having things their way in Lebanon to the point the Lebanese Army is nothing more than a tool to attack Israel, then warfare in the entire region is more than a possibility!!

Oh ya; here is the kicker; the US  has been supplying the Lebanese military for over two years now.

In 1973, the Soviet Union watched billions of dollars of equipment and aid go up in smoke with the defeat  of the Arab militaries on the battlefields with Israel. We could be looking at the same thing.

I have just scratched the surface of what this whole STL event could mean to the US and it's allies.

I will concentrate more on this regional topic in the next few nights, given the Egyptian Woodstock seems to be settling in for the long haul!.

Happy 100th Birthday Mr President!!!









Where did the uprising in Egypt go? Oh ya; it was Super Bowl Sunday!!!

Well Mubarak nor the MB made any big moves today, at least not on the surface. I think it's hard to maintain the momentum going when you announce you are only going to "protest' on Tuesdays and Fridays!!!!   Does anyone really think Mubarak is going to contemplate leaving before September now? Really??  Most governments have gone through the training and realize if they just hold on, most of the time a real good "revolt / protest / will simply play itself out.  I am not convinced this is the absolute truth for Egypt, but I would say Mubarak does have the upper hand again.

The MB has two strategic options at this point in time.

                1. Let things go with the flow and see what they can come up with in the realm of a coalition     government. Again, this goes along with my statements about the MB taking the Lebanon path        to power.  Time is their friend barring some drastic move by Iran or Israel.

                2.  Bring back the violence on a much larger scale than last week.  The MB still understands that              any violent act against "peaceful protesters" will instantly be blamed on the Egyptian          government.     In this matter they still have the upper hand.

As of tonight, my opinion is they are working on other issues.  Taking this "uprising" concept to the next level in areas they chose is probably what they are working on. Remember, this was not their idea and taking over the human momentum requires planning, sound planning, and time. 

The quiet before the storm? Maybe!!  

WHEN YOU RUN WITH WOLVES, YOU MAY BE EATEN!!!

The MB may be running into a huge problem. The "Revolt" is getting boring to the rest of the world. There was very little blood today and that doesn't sell airtime for  the world press.  You could almost hear the disappointment in their voices all day long. " Compared to the past few days, today was relatively quiet" RATS.. If it bleeds, it leads. I saying my good friend Chuck has told me over and over again.  Mubarak is a crafty veteran of controversy and he may very well figured out a way to ride the storm out for now.  

Remember two important points over the next few days.

                1.  The MB and the " Radicals" may shift their energy from a near term victory in Egypt to fresh events in Jordan or Yemen. The golden calf, no pun intended for us fellow Christians, is still Saudi and I am confident the wheels are turning inside  the Muslim version of "Specter".  If that one got past you, then you need to watch classic James Bond more. 

2.  The battle for control of the "Virus" is still very much up in the air.  As hard as the Sunni, MB is trying to keep everything moving their way, the Shiite / Iran / is still in a full court press to capture the movement.  This battle could be one of the reasons for the pause in follow on events else ware.   

One saving grace about the Persians and the Arabs is their historic inability to agree.

There is a scene in Laurence of Arabia, just after they capture Aqaba, where Laurence witness the instantaneous feuding over who will be in control of the city. Classic depiction of their inability to form a true Union. Laurence even tells them this. The same holds true in 2011. It's one of the most important advantages the Western, Christian world really has.

I would say more, but I don't want to run out of great ideas!!!!

TALKING HEADS STARTING TO RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY!!!

One thing became clear to me today, the talking heads have started to run out of things to say.

"What's going to happen"? Well; how many times can that question be answered?

Oh ya; the story about the attempted assignation of the VP in Egypt is up in the air right now, but if it's true, I am sure the moderate MB would never have condoned such an act!!! Lord now I sound like the Talking Heads on TV.  The MB probably pulled out the Sadat "playbook".

Ok back to the task at hand. What do we know today that we didn't know yesterday? Answer, not much!!  The whole thing is much like a Chess Match. One move is what's going on in Egypt, the other moves are:

                1. What is going on in other Muslim Countries?               

                                Oh ya; Why is everyone fixated on this only taking place in Muslim Countries. If food and                          the price of food is one of the core issues, Talking Head viewpoint that I don't agree                                             with, then why are we only looking at Muslim nations?  I'm not going to comment yet. I                                      want to see if the "professionals" on TV begin to figure out why they are only talking                                         about Muslim countries. I will give it another two days and then give my answer.

                2.  What in the world is the US and it's allies doing to war-game the next few weeks, months?

                Here is a topic I am really worried about.  Policy can't come from watching Fox and CNN and      then having a meeting to come up with a quick sound bite for the press. Yep; the way it's done            now.

3.  Poor old Israel!!!  If anything keeps me up at night right now, it's the thought of the Israelis growing more and more desperate.  I said this yesterday, but I will say it again. When they watched the US abandon Egypt's leadership in the course of two days, that had to set them back on heels!.  A classic example of a "knee Jerk Reaction" with no thoughts of Second and Third order Effects.

Here is the real problem. It's Super Bowl Weekend and the whole country, " Joe Six Pack" is going to funnel in the pre-pre game show. ... the pre game show... Hundreds of dumb very rich Jocks talking saying incredibly visionary things like, " IF DA TURN DA BALL OVRR DA MAY LOSE"!!!

If I was worried about US reaction and I wanted to do something to end or drastically increase the events in Egypt, I would do it Saturday night or Sunday morning our time.  No network in their right mind will interrupt the hours of Super Bowl hype over Egypt.

Get ready for something by Saturday or Sunday am.   



THE BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE "VIRUS"!!

One thing has become very clear in the past several weeks. Both sides of the Radical Islamic movement have come to realize the power of the Tunisian Virus!! Both the Sunni and Shiite are scrambling to shape the "freedom" phenomenon into a tool for them to leverage. Ironically, both sides see the danger of the virus yet they cannot resist finding a way to weaponize   the bug! They also understand they are in a classic "arms race" to get control of the event. Syria and Iran, more so Iran than Syria, see the advantage of a drastically weakened Egypt that could eventually fall into their court.  yet; the Syrian government is beginning not to sleep at night. It is very possible the virus may spread to Syria before their keepers, Iran, can figure out how to turn this whole event into a Shiite windfall.  Never forget the age old Persian / Arabic issue here. 

Here is Syria's problem; most of the country is Sunni!!!!  If the MB takes control of the virus, remember the MB is Sunni, then Syria becomes a prime target.  The Syrian leadership is seen as sellouts to Iran, Shiite Iranian Masters.  If a week or a month from now, Iran wakes up and sees "issues inside of Syria, the alarm bells are really going to go off!!!! The virus will be out of the weapon's lab and the city may be turning into Zombies!!!

Interesting times for sure, but don't take your eyes off the real issue here. ISRAEL!!!

Egypt descending into political turmoil is nothing short of a true nightmare for Israel.

Stack that on top of how quickly the Israelis watched the US abandon the Leader of Egypt, a guarded Friend of the US and you have the makings of a blunder by our DoS of epic proportions.  Don't rule out the fact that the US's actions could realistically lead to armed conflict by Israel. An armed conflict that could include Syria, Iran, Lebanon all at one time.

Can this whole thing get worse? absolutely!!

Will it? Let's hope not, but the long-range crystal ball does not look good!!!

HERE COME THE THUGS!!!  N0!! not the King. He is the poor guy who is not sleeping at night right now.

Well; it took a week, but the classic Mubarak reaction teams finally came out. My gut feeling is they took a few days figuring out where the best places to show up would be, how they wanted to execute and then making sure the authorities were up to speed on what they would be doing.  

The MB will not waste a single minute taking advantage of the pro Mubarak forces showing up. In fact, they, the MB, probably had figured into their plans the fact the Mubarak forces would show up.  

Why did Mubarak have them show up now?  A couple of theories come to mind.

                1.  The military has to have a viable excuse to take real action and prolonged violence could be               the tool.

                2.  He had them ready and waited to give his speech showing how we was meeting the demands            of the public before unleashing them; thus giving the perception of the crowds being unwilling           to find a peaceful resolution to the event.  This is my bet!!!

                3. Those who are  pro Mubarak are preparing to show they are just trying to restore calm to the                               streets of Egypt.   To do that, you need "real violence"

So what is going to happen next?

The Military has to stay with Mubarak or stay with the faction that is against change in leadership, or they have to abandon the current government and do nothing more that keep order.

My guess is the Military is going to have to dictate the interim Government and perhaps place a figure head in charge and remove Mubarak. A dangerous move given the split in the military forces this could lead to.

One thing is clear, the next real move in Egypt will be executed by the military not the Government or the protesters.

Ok; next topic; Biological Warfare!!!

It is extremely interesting to  see the slightest of rumblings of unrest in Syria. To the outsider this might appear puzzling. How is it that a "virus" the US and our Allies believes could easily lead to groups like the MB taking control of critical nations in the Middle East could possibly lead to one of enemies imploding from the same sickness?  If the MB is out to use this unrest to push their agenda and Iran, the MB mortal enemy, back the unrest as well, then why would Iran support something that could take down their proxy puppet?  Two answers to this issue.

                1.  The MB is Sunni and the destruction of the Shiite powerbase  is secondary only to the            destruction of Israel.

2.  Every SciFi movie about Zombies starts with someone or some nation uses a secret  "germ" and then the whole thing backfires. Well; if the MB and Iran have determined that Social networks and civil unrest is the best way to get rid of the "Old Guard" loyal to the West, well then, they have become the idiots who let the germ out that killed them.  Will it work in Syria and Iran like it is working in Egypt? I don't think so, but like any virus, it will mutate and have different effects on different "host".

It's something I will talk about on Thursday.





It just gets worse and worse for Israel!!!!!

I've said this for several days now, but the truth is none of us with the exception of the Israelis really comprehends what is unfolding in the Middle East.

The short stories is not a pretty one.  The road to Democracy is being paved by the Fundamentalist!

Let's keep this short and simple tonight.  When Egypt holds general elections and when that is becomes anyone's guess, the end results could very well be a Government of 80 million Muslims on a path to Sharia law. 

Over the past two days I heard the regular group of suspect "talking heads" rambling on about how MB / Muslim Brotherhood / is a " non Violent organization that is for peaceful change!!!

WHAT????

What University "think-tank" did these idiots evolve from?  Someone ask Sadat how peaceful the MB is. Oh  ya.. that's right . they KILLED HIM!!

It's one thing to hear this asinine analysis on US / Western / media, but can anyone imagine how this plays in Israel?  At the sake of sounding 18 yrs old.. OMG!!!!   

If the US / John Q Public definition of "things seem to be getting better" is based upon not seeing large crowds in the streets, then we are sliding closer and closer to the edge of the cliff in the Middle East.

Really, the current rhythm of events in Egypt is so disturbing, I find it hard to think about.     

Let me end this post by asking one simple question.

What is going to happen if six to twelve months from now, we have a democratically elected government in Egypt and that government decides to open up the Egyptian blockade of Gaza?

If you have not thought about Gaza and Egypt, I can assure you the Israelis have .

The crowds may die down, but the crisis is growing at a furious rate.