IF THE US STRIKES IRAN, HOW “SHOULD” IT TAKE PLACE?

   Rumors flew today of the US taking action against Iran. Leaks? You bet, it seems leaks are coming from all directions with some of them being deliberate and some being by opportunistic individuals. Let’s go back to my discussion on this topic from a few days ago. Is the US being seen as impudent? Are the Mullahs way ahead in the game of perception? Yes. Is the US actually reluctant to take action or is it just the “perception”? Nope. Reluctance is the reality, at least for now. Does this hurt the US’s image? Absolutely. Does The Donald know this? Absolutely. Is that going over well? What do you think. Can The Donald jump into yet another conflict in the Middle East and do so at the beginning of a reelection campaign? That’s the BILLION dollar question. What does all of this lead up to? If you guessed an attitude of, “ Let’s do something and then get out”, then you may just win the prize. Can this be achieved before the big sit down in Bahrain? Maybe, but the operation would be place at risk the level of Iranian response? Today’s rumor was based upon the US striking some facility that is associated with the Mullah’s nuclear program. If this get in, get out, template has been chosen, is that the right target set? Perhaps and here is why. The redline of defending the Straits has already been violated. To act now, would be perceived as a desperate attempt to make up for being beaten over the head in the perception game. But.....but..... to strike a nuclear facility could be linked to the previous threat of violating the nuclear agreement...note... not treaty... Obama made sure this worthless agreement was not a treaty. To strike one of these Iranian facilities could be seen and hold true to the US’s word and somehow possibly making up for the slap in the face the tanker attacks created. Will this tactic work? Well, the reality is, that’s up to the Mullahs. Okay. Is there a better option? Why of course there is and it just so happens it’s the one I spoke of last week:)

IRGC/ AL-QUD FORCES:

   If you listened to my podcast or read my blog last week, you understood how I thought this event should play out. Hint, it plays out between DC and Moscow not DC and Tehran. If you didn’t listen or ready my input, shame on you, but here is the cheap version!  Strike the IRGC in Syria and Iraq. Strike the Al-Quds force in both nations as well. Take the path the IDF has been taking or over two years now, but take it in a dramatically larger scale. Warn the Russians to clear away from IRGC  and Al-Qud locations and tell them they need to do so as soon a possible or don’t blame the US for what happens. That word will get tot the Mullahs and that would be part of the plan. You see, those units can move, but they can’t hide, unless they do what they always do and mingle with the civilians in the area. If that happens, then strike the Syrian fixed positions and strike them hard. the price to pay for continuing to associate with the Mullahs would be high. The concept of Moscow still calling the shots in Syria would not change and the US tells them that before anything takes place. Make this event a two to three day event that introduces a new way of fighting that the US’s enemies are not use to witnessing. Yes, bring cyber to full front of the battlefield. Trust me, you have not seen anything near what that weapon system can accomplish from the US perspective. Timing is everything on that topic with the story of the Russian power grid this weekend. Let this “event” take place over the course of two to three days and from the second it starts, warn Iran just how bad it may get if their retaliatory actions are unacceptable. Short answer, fire on more tankers and Iran loses it’s Navy. Risky? What about conflict is not risky? In the end, the world gets to witness what happens to a force that is led by old men who have no understanding of modern warfare. No nation state rebuilding. No regime change. No follow on contracts to fix anything in Syria or Iraq. Just a devastated third rate military that never even sees the enemy that is destroying their proxy fighters.

DOES THIS NEED TO HAPPEN?

   Yes. Yes this needs to happen. Why does the Iranian nuclear facility scenario not work? Simple, that is not where the problem exist. That strategy is based upon not looking like you are making up for being made a fool. So what, don’t worry about looking like a fool. Hit them where it hurts and do so without any public fanfare in the open press. Look, the IRGC and the Al-Qud force have anticipated this type of event since the day the first four ships were struck. What they don’t understand is the nature of the attack that can fall on them. Might the Mullahs overreact? Again, the risk of response is always there. “ The Enemy get’s a vote”. That’s the saying and that is the truth, but if key support players, Moscow, informs the Iranian military commanders, NOT the old men in Tehran, but the military leaders, then and only then those leaders may understand they have other options. What does that mean? You know that answer, if you have followed me in the past. It’s an answer I will but out on my PODCAST tonight. Messy.fm/profile/coldansviewpoint

   

ATTACKS IN THE STRAITS OF HORMUZ. THE US IS LOSING THE PERCEPTION WAR

   Six ships in one month and what has been the response from the nation that stated it better not happen? In the game of “bluff” who is winning? My answer, the Mullahs, that’s who. Now, Does the US need another Iraq/ Afghanistan event? Only if you are part of the Military Industrial Complex should the answer be, “yes”. But, and this is a huge but, the US has a huge and I mean huge problem. The Obama administration set into motion a series out events on a global scale all based upon declaring a “redline” and then doing nothing. Yes, he tried to show he came to an agreement with Moscow and that was the basis for failing to strike when he warned he would, but the world never accepted that excuse. Well, folks, the US is repeating that same mistake. First and foremost, a nation cannons Twitter  it’s way around a crisis. I’m not sure the old men in Tehran even know how to sign on to a twitter account. I will tell you what they do know. They understand they have openly attacked 6 ships in the Straits of Hormuz, just as they warned they would, and absolutely nothing has happened, at least not a level the common person on the street can see. If we accept this status of events, then we need to anticipate what may come next and that is the purpose of this post.

REMINDER:

   Why are the old men in Tehran desperate enough to risk the actions they have taken? Has the US  pressured them to the point they are in a corner and see no way out? Well, if not, they are very.....very close.  Does a majority of their public see them as a thing of the passed, an oppressive past? Yes. Is the Bromance with the Russians over? If you know me, you know I’m convinced there never was such a thing. Are things sliding down hill fast for the tyrants who have terrorized the people of Iran for the past forty years? Yes. Here comes the real issue in this event!  Are they banking on the fact that The Donald is so unpopular, so under siege by his own country that he is powerless to strike at them for their actions? In their minds I believe they do. Think about it. When the attack on the two ships took place yesterday, the story CNN ran was how the US Secretary of State was blaming Iran “ without any proof”. Then, a few hours later, CNN had to east it’s words, as it often does, when it admitted the US Navy had video, “allegedly” ....yep they still couldn’t give in... that showed Iranian forces removing a device from the side of one of the ships. Again, do the old men in Tehran believe the US is unwilling to take action? Yes.....yes they do. Can the US defend the Straits? With one message from the President / Commander in Chief, the Iranian Military would find out.

PERCEPTION:

   Folks. The US is in a perception war with Tehran and Tehran is beating the US upside the head. How damaging is this reality in other matters around the world? We can only speculate, but I will tell you this history shows us that when perception is won, the next event is desperation. The perception war with the Mullahs has the US backed into a corner. Not the same economic corner the Mullahs find themselves in, but one that may be just as bad. A perception corner heading into a Presidential election cycle. You see, once that cycle starts in the US, it’s as if everything else just falls to the wayside. To make matters worse, I am still convinced the big sit down in Bahrain is priority # 1 for Team Trump. Boy Wonder, the Son in Law, has to have his day and that day will come in Bahrain. Here comes the bad news. That sit down is something the Mullah cannot allow to take place. In reality, it’s another nail in their coffin. Okay, I’ve complained enough about what the US is doing wrong. Let me give you my opinion of what should happen and trust me, something needs to happen soon.

HOW IT SHOULD GO:

   Yesterday, I posted a podcast.   Messy.fm/profile/coldansviewpoint .... yep.. I’m expanding my horizons:)..... in that podcast I concentrated on how the briefing on this latest attack was prepared and briefed to the US President. I talked about what people can look for as indicators of what may be happening next and thus prevent them from listing to the pay as you talk ..talking heads on the major news networks.  What I didn’t cover was what should happen. I deliberately took that approach so I could cover that issue in more detail on my blog. So, here you go.

   As soon as the PODUS briefing was over, the “batphone” should have buzzed in Moscow and here is what should have been said. “ Vlad. How are you? Look we and I do mean we, have a problem. That problem is one of your puppets, Iran. Now, I get it you have used them to make trouble for the US and I get it your are upset of the expansion of NATO into your old Buffer Zone, but, I am here to tell you, I have had enough with the Mullahs in Tehran. I also know you are growing tired of them as well, hell... they have militias shooting at your troops in Syria. Now, you and I could talk all day about this puppet issue, but I need you to do something for me before This all gets way ...way out of hand. The way I see it, we have two options. 1. You do what you do best and have the Mullahs sleeping with the fishes soon and then pick  new leadership for Iran. We get the Palestinian issue back on the table and I promise I’ll get the Israelis to sit down and listen or ....2.  I need you to move your forces and equipment away from any and all IRGC  / Al-Qud forces in Syria and Iraq and you know why I will need you to do that. Look, we can keep this from getting worse, be we don’t have a great deal of time. Ive been on the phone with the young Prince in Saudi and we are close to that young man making a dramatic mistake. You and I don’t need a region war that ends up with our economies damaged and I don’t want another Iraq or Afghanistan. If I have to do this, we are in an out, no ground troops, no ‘nation state building’ and I don’t even care about regime change. But, I will send a message to the leadership of the Iranian military that the future of their nation rest with their desire to continue to follow the idiots in Tehran or not. Here are my final thoughts my friend. If you truly want to back thee current government in Tehran, then this could easily get way out of hand. So, let’s help each other find a way out of this mess and I will guarantee you we will sit down and talk about your concerns as soon as it’s over and I think I know what they are. I have to go now. I have to prepare incase you don’t agree with my two options. I need your answer within the next few days. I hope we talk very....very...soon”.

   Sound crazy? That was how things were done back in the days of Ronald Reagan. That was how things got done and you know what....it worked. Look. The US is getting beat in the perception war with the Mullahs and as soon as the Mullahs see the Democrats and the mainstream media turn this into a 2020 issue, it’s going to get worse.....much ....much worse. We need a Reagan moment and we need it soon.

Self promotion time:

   My new podcast site.

Messy.fm.profile/coldansviewpoint.com

Check it out !!!!

ILLEGAL MIGRATION AND THE PANDEMIC THREAT. SHOULD WE WORRY?

Ebola and illegal immigrants, that’s a topic a growing number of people are talking about in the US. Is there a reason to be worried? Is there a risk of an outbreak in the US or any other country that is accepting illegals from places with a known risk?  Let’s look at this issue from a different perspective. Let’s look at how a true pandemic event would most likely take place and then I think you can come to your own conclusions. Let’s look at a few facts first.

Facts:

​Most of the illegal migration movements are taking place through a process that is not designed to monitor for pandemic threats. If someone boards a cargo ship and sails to a port in Central or South America, hidden away in some illegal fashion, the odds of the crew declaring those people are onboard is zero. 

​If you live in an area where there is an outbreak of a disease that can kill you and fear begins to rule the day, then you are going to attempt to leave. The intent to leave increases greatly when a rumor starts that people are not being allowed to leave….by the way… been there……seen that! Fear creates panic and panic grows the number of those attempting to leave. Where do you want to go? First off to a please that is safe from the threat and secondly, a place that has the ability to treat you if you do get sick. 

​Once you arrive near the area you are trying to get to, the last thing you want to do is let someone know you’re from a stricken location. By the way, let me inject some good news here. Boat rides like the ones I’m talking about are much longer than the incubation times of most deadly diseases. Whoops. Here is the bad news…………people can be carriers! Sorry.

Alright, without making the “how” process too lengthy, let me push on to my next point.

Response and History:

​Is the US ready for a true pandemic event? Well, that depends on what that event is. Just to have a starting point, let me go back to a story I was involved in as I attempt to paint a picture of “readiness”. Swine Flu in 2009. To say I was busy as that moment in time is an understatement. The idea that I needed to dedicate a percentage of my staff to a conference call about the flue seemed like overkill, but that is what I was told to do, so we did. That first day started with a call with several agencies and by the calls end, it seemed I was going to have to assign several members to the process. Well, over the course of the next few days, it became obvious this support concept would become the primary task for my staff. It seemed like the next day, all of us were 24/7 working on the issue of the growing threat of Swine Flu. What was the mortality rate projected to be? I don’t even remember, but I will tell you this some very scary concepts were being discussed at all levels, federal, state and local. Now, let me stop and digress for a minute. When I first retuned from the Middle East, back in 2003, one of my first assignments was to help the State of Texas prepare to achieve a “Green” status on CDC/ Center for Disease Control/ National Strategic Stockpile program. This was and is a program that is designed to combat pandemic events. Myself and a few of my Iron Majors, nicknames for midlevel Officers who can get just about anything done, sat in on planning meetings for months. At the end of the day, not only did we all understand what the national “plan” was, we thought we had a plan that might just work for the state of Texas. Folks, that was how I came to understand what was being talked about when the Swine Flu threat came into view. My staff and I began to listen to CDC and the states talk about events like, “Social Distancing”, Push Packages and Distribution points. It was one thing to have been in on the concept of planning for such an event but the reality of actually preparingfor these concepts was more than troubling. Over the course of the next few days, we had moved on to topics like, “The Immortals” and how these people would be identified in order to support the response process. By the way, “ The Immortals” are the people who get sick, but survive. We even planned on how to organize the Immortals inside our own forces. Scary stuff! 

​On the day the topic of closing public schools was about to be decided upon, at least in Texas, the reality of what would happen really took hold. If you close schools, people stay home. If people stay home, businesses close. If businesses close, the media, to include social media, creates a higher level of panic. Worse, if kids stay home, a percentage of First Responders don’t show up for work. People who make the sewer plants run, water and power, they all begin to be dramatically impacted. It became clear to most of us what the issue was going to be. The lethality rate was not the driving factor. The rumors and media hype would become the breaking point. Look, when you are in a series of daily calls that talk about chromosome jumps and airborne mutations, life gets real! Oh, by the way, the more people that are infected, the more mutation opportunities the virus gets, and the math is crazy. If that doesn’t drive you to the point of digging a whole to hide in, then you hear about “burnout rates” and “cooling off periods” before the virus comes back. By the beginning of the second week of the calls, we had to be careful who we had in the daily conversations given the anxiety levels it was creating and we are talking about troops who had been to war.

When it was all said and done, the virus failed to launch but it got close, so close the government was ready to implement what most would consider extreme measures. 

Side note: You don’t know the thought process of people until you tell them they could be in real trouble. Some of the sidebar conversations about how to prevent possible infected groups from traveling into other regions simply got ugly and I will leave it at that.

What does this all mean: 

​Should we be worried about the uncontrolled movement of large numbers of people from unknown places? How could we not be? Is there a process in place to check everyone that is pouring into other nations? Here is the reality. The US can have the best “plan” in the world but if other nations are not showing the commitment to watching for such an event, then that “plan” will not matter. The key to pandemic is early detection and then isolation. But and this is the huge but….if we can’t detect and isolate, then we must “Plan” for the failure of concept. Can the US stop a pandemic event from taking place? No. Can the US mitigate an event once it starts? Well folks, that’s a question of numbers and locations. By the way, where are all these people going that keep pouring into the US and other nations? Yep, they are going all over the place. Detection and Isolation in countless locations. That seems like a very…very risky assumption. Can the US and other countries check every ship that docks in a major port? No. Is the “detection” event going to take place where we don’t expect it? I hope not.  

MEXICO’S PATH TO REVOLUTION. 

   Mr. Lopez, President Lopez, apparently has a alliances with a very prominent figure in Mexico. The Good Doctor Mireles. If you have followed me for the past several years, then you know my theory of the Good Doctor. If you haven’t, I’m gong to give a very detailed background on this individual on my pending PODCAST. Yep. That’s right folks. I’ve stepped into the 21st Century. I almost....almost.... know how to do PODCAST now. The next thing you know, I will be writing code:) Okay. Why Do I bring up the relationship between the Good Doctor and Mr. Lopez? Do they have something the past President didn’t.... a real understanding of each other? Short answer.....yes.....yes they do. Is that astonishing given the Good Doctor’s history with the Mexican government, the same government that tried their best to kill him? Yep. Why? Why would this new President be any different than the past several? Why would he reach out to a man who could easily become the next General Villa? Yep. I said it....General Villa. Again, if you know me, I’ve been looking at the Good Doctor’s actions since 2013 and the beginning of his version of the Autodefensa movements. What is their “understanding” based on? Simple. Revolution! There.........I said it. Mr. Lopez and the Good Doctor are both willing to take Mexico into a Revolution if need be. Sound outrageous? If you think so, then you don’t know Mexico. 

 History:

  Without diving too deep in the past observations of the Good Doctor, let me make one very important point, one that I will cover in more detail on my PODCAST. At the time the Arab Spring was spreading, I was of the opinion that same mentality could reach the US and Mexico and other regions of Central and South America. Well, I was right about the US with the appearance of the Occupy Wall Street and that event made me even more convinced it was going to take place in Mexico. So, the Arab Spring, or Tunisian Virus, as I called it back then, was cooking along, up pops the Good Doctor in 2013. His Autodefensas organization in Michoacán was more than disturbing to some of us, but not to the level that the so called “experts” in DC would acknowledge. We had a series of debates as to just what this Autodefensa movement might indicate, but at the end of the day, as is always the case, nobody is smarter than the gang in DC....just ask them. As time went on, the cartels had to figure out a way to deal with what the Good Doctor had awoken in the common people of Mexico. The same people who no longer trusted the government, as if they ever did, and no longer trusted the police at all levels. The reality was, these groups were growing and they were taking on the cartels at an alarming rate. Now, as much as the cartels tried to get their paid for government officials to put a stop to the Autodefensas, it seemed the government was reluctant to move on the poor people of Mexico. Well, the next thing you know, the cartels did the next best thing, they infiltrated the movement. Fake Autodefensa popped up and key members were paid off....never forget in Mexico; “ Plata or Plomo”. Try as they may, the cartels could not get a handle on the groups. They even continued to grow and by 2015, it was clear not only did the cartels worry about the possibility of these groups, but the Old Guard in Mexico City did as well. You know, the people who don’t give a hoot about anything outside of Mexico City. The people that can fly away if it all goes bad. So, the next thing you know, the Good Doctor is arrested, but here was the catch. He was widely popular and killing him, at least for the government, well, that simply was not an option. Then an event took place that I predicted. They couldn’t kill him outright and the government couldn’t afford to have the cartels kill him, so............... he had a “accident” better yet......an aircraft “accident”. There was only one problem, he lived! Off to jail he went with the theory of “ out of site, out of mind”. The government had anticipated with his face being out of the limelight for a year or two and with the cartels infiltrating the Autodefensas, the whole concept would fall apart. Short answer, it didn’t work. 

  The Alliance:

 With a bad heart and a questionable support base, the Good Doctor held on. What happened next was more than an omen. The fright to have him released grew. Yep. Mexico’s elites, the ones that feared what he stood for more than they feared the cartels, were going to have to give in. He was let loose after say he was “sorry” for the Autodefensa movements. A statement he had no problem with making given he knew no one would  believe a word of it. 

Then, then the elections came and the next thing the PRE and the PAN realized their combined rule over Mexico had come to an end. Worse yet, Mr. López was not only going to change things in Mexico City, he was going to radically change things. Mr. Lopez, the guy who has called for “Revolution” in Mexico. 

Well, the next thing you know, the Good Doctor had gone from nearly public enemy number one to mouthpiece for the new President.. My oh my, how times change. Does the idea of these two wildly popular figures teaming up send shivers down the spine of the Old Guard in Mexico City? Ha. If you think The Donald showing up in DC rocked the boat, you can only imagine the drama in Mexico City.  

What was Missing:

   Back when I was “Observing”:) the Good Doctor and many other issues in Mexico, it became clear he was missing one key ingredient to spark a true revolutionary mindset. The students. He spend his energy on those that he knew, the poor farmers and working class. What he missed was the synergy that would come from pulling in the youth of the Universities. The fuel was there.... but the right flame was not used. Well, that is now changing. In the past few weeks, I’ve seen a change in the Good Doctor’s actions. It seems he has been on a roadshow not to see just the working class folks in the countryside, he’s closed the loop. He visiting and meeting with the students and folks, that is significant! Now, why is he doing this? Is he marching to the beat of his own drummer or is he executing the wishes of his fellow Revolutionary.... Mr. Lopez. 

The Real Goal?

   Mr. Lopez is out to rebalance the wealth of Mexico and he is framing this mission by saying he is pushing out corruption at all levels. Are those not the words of every revolutionary movement? The redistribution of wealth and the concept of such an event is as alien to the power base in Mexico City as it is anywhere else, but here is the kicker. Does he include the wealth of the cartels? Did he not all but admit he was going to go hands off on the drug Lords? Did he not say he was going to remove the. Military from the streets of Mexico? Just how does that defeat the strongest crime family in the Americas? Ugly answer. Perhaps he doesn’t intend to? The Good Doctor is a powerful tool and perhaps this tool has been given a mission. Secure the base for the next revolution. Secure the two groups that are key. The students and the poor.Yesterday, Doctor Mireles tweeted he was heading to the University in Guerrero and he was going to meet with the students as they reflected on the words of General Villa. “ It would be magnificent, I believe, to help make Mexico a happy place”. Talking to the students of a controversial University about the inspirational words of the last, great Revolutionary. Interesting. 

   Hugo Chavez came to power in Venezuela on the promise of a complete overhaul of the nation. He was the one that called for the next phase of the Bolivian Revolution. In the end, where did Venezuela end up? Children eating out of trash cans. Is Mexico heading for a revolution? It seems that way. Can it actually happen? What is there to prevent it when the President is so wildly popular? Is the Good Doctor working to support Mr. Lopez’s goals or is he plotting for the President’s failure? Ah......... now, there is the real question. These words have been spoken by the Good Doctor. To paraphrase, ‘ i will wait to see how his presidency goes? 

   Okay. What does this mean to the feast of us? What does it mean to the US? That folks, is the purpose of my pending PODCAST.

messy.fm/profile/coldansviewpoint. 

MEXICO’S MILITARY IS UNDER SIEGE AND IT’S FROM THEIR OWN PRESIDENT.

​I want you to imagine something. I want you to imagine waking up one morning and seeing a news story about a community in the US taking 40 members of the United States Military hostage along with a dozen state police. Would that story shock you? Would you start to doubt the stability of the nation? Well, to the people of Mexico, this is old news and even worse, it’s news most don’t even care about. Mexico. The US’s “Neighbor”. Mexico, the nation that no one dares to call, “third world”. And finally, Mexico, the country where it’s own government post a map of just how much of the nation they don’t control. Why is the US’s border with Mexico nearing a catastrophic event? Just how much worse can things get? Hold on for that answer, because the truth is, “we ain’t seen nothing yet”.

SEDENA:

​When Mr. Lopez, ya, that’s right, I call him Mr. Lopez because that’s easy and I am not culturally attuned with spelling out hyphenated names….so…He’s Mr. Lopez. If that upsets you, then just mentally replace Mr. Lopez with “AMLO” and you may feel better, was campaigning for the Presidency of Mexico, he made one huge promise to the people of Mexico. He stated he would remove the Mexican Military from the streets of Mexico. Now, if you don’t know the past decade of history in Mexico, then you may not think that’s a big deal. In most movies the US makes about Central and South America, it’s the military that is seen doing everything that typical law enforcement is tasked with in the US. Bottomline, most people here probably didn’t pay any attention to Mr. Lopez’s statement. Truth be known, they most likely didn’t even pay attention to the whole election process in Mexico. But, to the people of Mexico, that was a dramatic statement. A little history here. Over ten years ago, the corruption inside local, state and even federal civilian law enforcement was so bad, Mexico decided to replace much of the process especially at the local and state level with the military. Bad idea? You bet it was and some of us who were “working” issues to the US’s South made that known. The good news was, the issue was so bad, most of the people in Mexico supported the concept. Then, like some of us predicted, it all started to go wrong. The cartels did what they did with the civilian law enforcement, they paid the military to leave them alone or worse, do their dirty work. All of them? No. Many members are patriotic and hate the idea of corruption, but here was and is the problem. The payoffs went all the way to the Top. It’s hard to be an honest Captain at the Company level when your General is on the cartel’s payroll. 

​As bad as things became, they got worse, much worse. Within three or four years, you had military members and even units terrorizing the public every bit as bad as the cartels and the dirty civilian cops. That took place in two directions. 1. The military became frustrated and overreacted and the frequency of those overreactions became alarming to say the least. 2. The level of corruption inside the military reached a point that not only did the public not trust them, they didn’t and don’t trust each other. Yep. It was and is that bad. 

​Along comes Mr. Lopez and being the far Left Socialist that he is, the same guy calling for a “revolution” in Mexico, an important point you cannot forget, he makes a promise to the people of Mexico to remove the military, really SEDENA, from the streets. His answer became a new form of law enforcement, a Mexican National Guard. Hint, the past three Presidents have all come up with their “answer” to the problem and all three failed miserably. Then his next problem arose. How do you stand up a 60,000 person force to replace the military on the streets? Answer, you can’t. Yes, Mr. Lopez stated most of these members would come from SEDENA, but in the end, what did that solve and do the people of Mexico buy the concept? We are to believe 60k members of SEDENA have already been screened for illegal activities and placed into this new National Guard? Silly. What they did was change the uniforms slightly and then put them right back out on the streets. Here is the other problem, I’m not sure how many have even made that transition. The reality is, the vast majority of military members working local / state law enforcement are still active members of SEDENA. 

​Okay, if you are a member of SEDENA and you are trying to hold on to your integrity and patriotism, all while you see this new force trying to take to the streets, then you suddenly hear rumors of units not being allowed to defend themselves, where does your mind go? What does a soldier think when he hears the rumors of units being detained and disarmed by civilian groups, groups that in the minds of these soldiers work for the cartels. What happens when the common soldier finds out the orders to not defend yourself comes from all the way at the top? Underpaid and swimming in a sea of corruption, what makes the “good guys and girls” of SEDENA keep going? At what point does it all just seem not worth the effort? Yep, this is the answer from Mr. Lopez. If he can’t pull SEDENA off the streets of Mexico as fast as he would like, he will do the next best thing…………….tell them they can’t engage the public. Now, ask yourself. If you were a cartel Boss, would you get in a gun fight with the military, an environment where they can defend themselves, or would you just get the public to rush the units as they move into town? Is this whole thing a horrific mess? Can it get worse? Yep. 

Breaking Point: 

​You are a member of SEDENA, a good one, and you wake up, get in uniform and prepare to moveout on a mission to find cartel gunmen in a town. As you are eating breakfast, your buddies are grumbling, still, about the unit that was “detained” a few days ago and made to look like fools. What goes through your head? Is it really worth it? The pay? Funny! The pride, your President is taking that from you. Your loyalty? No one believes you. What makes you step into the vehicles and move out? What is holding Mexico together? You are. What happens if you and those like you just give up? Answer, we will see a Mexico that falls into a true state of crisis. What is a General without Troops? A costume. 

What is Mr. Lopez truly pushing for? Remember where I said, don’t forget his calls for a “Revolution”. Mexico’s economic indicators are slipping all the while as Mr. Lopez funds more and more social programs…..you know…..freebees. His drive for the redistribution of wealth has Mexico on the path to be Venezuela’s twin. Here I go again. If you want to see a real mass migration crisis along the US border, then sit back and watch Mexico fall apart. Read on social media how the PAN and the PRE and teaming up to take on Mr. Lopez. Are the PRE and the PAN corrupt? Silly question. Did they provide a somewhat stable environment compared to Mr. Lopez? Absolutely. Do you think I’m making these stories up about the military units being “detained”. Google, Borderland Beat and Sierra De Guerrero. You will find your answer. Just how bad is Mexico. “ You ain’tseen nothing yet”!

SELFISH PROMOTION TIME:

Well, here I go. First off, let me say, “I know already”. I know how many times in the past I’ve commented about those who post and speak on topics for the simple reason of setting themselves up for self-promotion. Yes, I have called such people ugly names in the past and yes, I fully realize I’ve ignored just about every comment they have ever made, but……but….. this is different. No…..really….this is different. Why? Give me a chance to explain why. 

Several years ago, I was in a deep conversation with a few coworkers about the topic of a true, Third World War. Some in the room, a very “special room”, argued, like many, the world was already in a “Third World War” and the only difference was, how that war was being projected. For the record, I didn’t agree with that mindset and I will tell you why as I explain my selfishness. Anyway, when the conversation was over, it was clear to me the idea the world could jump, not slide, but jump into a true global, Third World War became a reality. I won’t go into details about what was said in this discussion and yes, some of that is because I cannot. What I can tell you is the fact my mind began to contemplate the scenario based on what I knew as well as what I speculated was true. The next thing I knew, I was taking notes and crafting a scenario of what might happen to trigger such a war and what the repercussions would be of such an event. Before too long, I had the outline of what I believed would be a rather interesting “book”. Yes….this is about me penning a book….there….. I said it. What I wasn’t sure of was how to tell the story that was in my head and on my notes. That issue proved to be more difficult than I ever thought it would be. Then I came up with what I honestly thought might be the best answer. Don’t write a novel. Don’t write hero’s and villains. Don’t try to impress readers with describing in great detail the nomenclature of advanced weapons. Don’t focus on melodramatic episodes that all culminate with the climax of the book. Nope. None of that. I decided to write this book as a report. That’s right, a report. A report from the viewpoint of an Officer in the United States Military, imagine that😊, who attempts to capture what took place with a focus on how, why and most importantly, the ramifications of such a war. A report that is broken down into two parts. 1. The war itself and 2. The aftermath and repercussions. 

In this format, the author, who is never named, states up front the reports are written to the best of his ability with the understanding that standard requirements such as references and footnotes were simply not possible. It is also stated the two-part report is based upon the war being over for five years and the concept of capturing what took place seemed to be a duty of this Officer, given he was unaware of anyone else attempting to accomplish the task. It’s style that is crude in structure, just like me, and not based upon academic standards. What the report / book/ attempts to be is a crystal ball into what I believe we are facing in the not so distant future. 

A few Hints:  

​Now, how could I not gain your interest in what I have tried to achieve if I didn’t give you a few hints of what to expect. Having said that, here you go!

▪ The war doesn’t start with the actions of the  USor the Russians or even the Chinese.

▪ The war had been anticipated by the Chinese for a period of time and when the right circumstances took place, their overall plan was put into play. 

▪ The event spins out of control with a speed no one was prepared for. 

▪ The initiating members of the conflict are overwhelmed with the capabilities of the weapons in their possession. They have the weapons,  but they don’t have true strategic policies for their implementation and it becomes too easy to simply push buttons. 

▪ The initial conflict is not based upon nuclear events. 

▪ The impact of true “Offensive Cyber Weapons” is far beyond the knowledge of day to day people and even those leaders in charge of them. 

▪ Decisions are made without consultation and that leads to an environment of panic. 

▪ The impact of social media becomes the driving force in the initial phases of the war. 

▪ Day to day life is far more fragile than anyone anticipated, even those whose job it was to plan for such an event. 

▪ Even with everything that comes of the war, the core value of those people remaining is based upon compassion, but not for governance. That concept is all but lost. 

▪ The desire to “rebuild” changes dramatically. 

All right. Those that have followed my blog for the past eight years can tag me as a hypocrite, but I’m not kidding when I say, I truly wanted to put this concept on paper. Do I care if it sells? Not really. Would I love for people to read it as I made a few dollars for my family? I would be lying if I said no. A few of you that know me, you know why I am more worried about my family and not myself. That chapter is almost written. Do I address anything that I learned in my “classified” years? No. Honestly, the best information in the world comes form day to day events and social media. Sneaking around to find things out is almost unnecessary. ….  Almost! So, there you have it. In the next month or so, I will put my book on Amazon Books. Why them, It’s a format I figured out and that says something. The only other time you will hear me speak of this adventure is the day I post to Amazon. Until then, it’s back to normal, well almost. I’m trying to figure out the whole Podcast business and if you know me, you know why. My ability to gab far exceeds my ability to bang on a keyboard. Col Dan’s Viewpoint on Messy. That’s where it will be soon….I hope! 

Note:

 Thanks to a very special young lady who I asked to draw the cover for this pending book. I told her my vision and she absolutely nailed it. She just finished her freshman year at the University of Texas in Lubbock and I hope it sells enough to put money in her pocket and a smile on her face. You rock Ashley.

BORDERLESS. A DOCUMENTARY INTO THE UNITED STATE’S FUTURE.

Until a friend on Tweeter, @_Watch_Observer, “W”, put me on to this documentary, I had never heard of Lauren Southern. W knows my theory on the weaponization of mass migration and how it has been used to destabilize Europe. When I was finished watching, I had taken over a page of notes and folks, I write small. Before I get into my opinion, let me make one important statement. Take the time to watch Lauren’s work. Watch it with an open mind and then go pour yourself a nice cold drink, you will need it. Great work Lauren, but let me expand upon your story.  

​Okay, as I push forward with this post, my assumption is going to be the readers are going to watch the documentary. If not, much of what I am going to say here will still make sense, but the critical points of this young lady’s work will be more difficult to process without my twist on, “why”…why is this happening.

What did Lauren prove: 

​First off, what Lauren Southern did was show the United States it’s future. Her documentary is a crystal ball that everyone in the US needs to gaze upon. 

Lauren Southern also proved, like so many other events in the world, there is money to be made by other people’s tragedies. The real role of many of the Nongovernmental Organizations / NGOs/ and their ultimate goal of making a huge amount of money off of mass migration is spot on. 

Lauren goes on to show the dramatic changes to Europe brought on by mass migration. Her segment on Ireland is the center peace of this documentary. The scene where the governmental official will not comment on who is paying for the migrants staying in the motels is chilling. 

Lauren does an excellent job of depicting how innocent people are manipulated into being part of this destabilization process. 

Her segment on ISIS in the Camps should have been an alarm bell and in reality, it was, but those in government have chosen to sweep the issue under the rug. Why? Well, that is a whole other discussion. 

Okay, this is a hard-hitting gut check that should be shown on major networks, but it won’t, at least not until someone has the courage to make that happen.

Lauren Southern’s documentary is an outstanding piece of investigative journalism that addresses the issue of mass migration to a level she was prepared to work towards. 

Her answer as to “how” it happens was excellent.

Her answer as to “why” ended with a look at the issues of NGOs making money and the victimization of desperate people, but that is where I would interject, she did not go far enough. 

The Real, “Why”:

​Have you watched the Amazon Prime documentary called, “The President”. If not, add it to your list. It’s the Russian equivalent to the Oliver Stone interview with President Putin, but the portrayal is predictable from the opening moments. History quiz. What was Putin’s cornerstone event in 1999? What made his rise to power all but a matter of fate? If you answered the crushing defeat he gave the Islamic Radicals  in Chechnya, you get the gold star….or maybe… a red one. Ruthless and methodical. Two traits that make him who he is. Hard times? Putin was born into them. Paranoid? How could he not be? 

​Okay,  a repeat of an issue I’ve talked about over and over again. What did the West and NATO promise the Russians after the collapse of the Soviet Empire? Yep, NATO would not move into Eastern Europe. Did that promise hold true. No. ​Let me remind you of the words, “Paranoid” and “Methodical”. The West broke it’s word and did so with all kinds of excuses, none of them being accepted in Moscow. Again and again, over the course of the past 1000 years, Europe continued to manipulate it’s relationship with Russia. Then……………………..then came the new Tsar……Putin. Would he accept broken promises once again? No. Would he implement a plan to counter the West / Europe’s crossed finger handshakes? Yes. Was that plan to destabilize Europe? Absolutely. Would he accomplish this goal by going to war or threatening war with the West? No. Did he find a weapon that would have the same impact? Yes. What was that weapon? Mass Migration! Yes, folks, once again, I speak to the issue of Mass Migration. 

​When Putin visited the Russian troops on the frontlines of the fight for Chechnya, he told them they would have his total support. He told them the future of Russia depended on their actions and together they would defeat the rebels. Result? The indiscriminate destruction of anything near the rebel held areas. Have you ever looked at the history of the battle of Grozny? Take a few minutes to look into the resolve of the Tsar. Flash forward to his plan for Europe. When he moved his forces into Syria, was the goal to stabilize Syria? Was his goal to secure some port? No and those that say so are fools. His goal was to test his new weapon……………..people………….massive amounts of victimized people on the run from a warzone. People who looked so pathetic to the Progressive Liberals of Europe’s governments, that they had to let them in at all cost. What did he know the end result would be? Exactly what you saw take place yesterday in the EU election, the continued rise of Nationalistic movements. Movements that are and will cause a crisis for just about every country in the EU. Was that the plan? You bet it was and……it worked!

​Did those responding to the mass migration events find a way to make money? Yes, they always do. Did other groups find a way to leverage this weapon? Yes. Think of ISIS’s infiltration into Europe. Opportunity came knocking and the Terrorist slipped in the door.  Does this help disguise what is really taking place here? Yes. 

​This documentary did an outstanding job and the fact it didn’t identify the real purpose of this planned mass migration event doesn’t mean you should not watch the video. Please watch it, but here is my point I made at the beginning. Southern’s work is a window into the future of the US. Does anyone think for a second that same weapon is not aimed at the US? Does Venezuela come to mind? Why do you think Moscow told its puppet in Venezuela to stay put? How bad is the situation at the US border right now? Honestly, you don’t want to knowand I work with that issue everyday of the week. 

​Here is my wish. I wish, no, I pray Lauren Southern conducts the same level of investigative journalism as to how the mass migrations are taking place against the US border and I pray she or someone like her does so quickly. If she takes this job on, I have one last piece of advice, get a much better security detail…..much…much better. The dangers to the US’s South make what she avoided in Turkey look like child’s play. Great work Lauren. Push, but be very…..very…careful.