VENEZUELA. HOW DOES IT PLAY OUT?

Okay. Back on track. Back to covering what I wanted to talk about, at least for now, Venezuela and it’s neighbors. So, Mr. or  Interim President, you pick, Guaido states the aid sitting in Columbia will make it into Venezuela. He has “ volunteers” to bring the aid in through routs he knows of. Here is my question. Is he campaigning already? He knows those that don’t want Maduro are insisting on new elections. So, is Guaido already in platform mode? Is he out to help the people or is he out to win the Presidency?  As the “ Interim” it would be expected he would try to convince the people better days are coming, but his delivery of that message has to be carefully crafted or he runs the real risk of being framed as an opportunist and just another power hungry politician in a collapsed country.

Talks with China:

            Guaido holds “talks” with the Chinese? How does that play out in DC? Is he attempting to show the Dragon the oil will continue to flow? Is he looking for their undeclared support, because it would be just that, undeclared. Could the Chinese convince the Russians to allow things to change in Venezuela? Showing a divide between Russia and China over Madruo is not going to happen. He is not that important. So, what took place in those talks with the Dragon? Just how much knowledge does DC have on the topic? My guess, a great deal.

Bigger Question:

             When it comes to Venezuela, what is the issue the US has struggled with? Is it the personality of Maduro? No. Is it the fact he and Mr. Baseball have driven the people into poverty? Well, there’s poverty in every corner of the world, so my guess is, kids eating from trash cans is not the flashpoint some think it should be. How about relationships? Mr. Baseball and the Big Eddie Munster both had nurtured a bond with Iran and Hezbollah. Shocked. You shouldn’t be.  Is the issue with Venezuela not about the status of the people, but about the status of relationships the current government has with the US’s enemies? Has everyone forgot the Russian Bombers landing in Venezuela? Is China out just to secure Venezuela’s fuel? What deals have been cooking with the Dragon on the issue of ports and trade? I bet the US’s IC knows, or they better know.

Same Mistakes:

            If you don’t learn from history, you are bound to repeat it….right? That’s how the saying goes. Is the path the US is taking? Is this all about keeping the US’s enemies out of Central and South America? Is Guaido a friend today and a turncoat tomorrow? Is history going to repeat itself? Is this just another chapter in the failed US policy on Central and South America? I have to tell you, it sure smells like that’s what is cooking. If the Dragon is going to stand on the sidelines of this one, then there is something they expect in return. If they are expected to convince the Russians to let go, then both sides are going to want a payoff. My hunch is….don’t start cheering for Juan Guaido just yet. Side note. Mr. Putin is so busy tying puppet strings to the backs of other proxy nations, he fails to feel the strings the Dragon is attaching to his.

 To paraphrase a classic, “ CAN YOU SMELLLLLL……. WHAT THE DRAGON HAS COOKING”?

NORTH MACEDONIA AND NATO. WHY?

Well, here I go again. I keep trying to concentrate on the Americas, but people keep  stirring up events elsewhere I just can’t seem to overlook. North Macedonia….yep…that’s right….”North Macedonia”….not “Macedonia”…but…..North Macedonia. Did anyone track why this splitting of hairs took place? Who does it really matter to other than the Greeks? Don’t change the name, can’t get the vote. That is what it came down to. Vote for what you may ask? Why, the vote to enter into the process to join NATO. Wait. Are we talking about NATO expansion once again? Yep. Didn’ the West tell the Russians they wouldn’t do that? Oh…that’s right…..everyone that joined was not invited, they “asked” to join. Anyway, North Macedonia or Macedonia…take your pick…is not “Eastern Europe and the whole NATO statement was based on Eastern Europe.  

Upset:

            Did this North Macedonia “Accession” issue upset the Russians? All you have to do is read the Russian news today and you will have your answer. Does anyone factor in what this expansion could lead to? Usually, yes, but then again, those that write about anticipated actions are usually writing to impress those around them…their peers… and as such, they are most often dead wrong! In the US, those inside the IC are writing to get that next GS grade bump or preparing for their retirement life as a talking head. You want to know how this event is playing out? Easy, read the Russian news! “Open Source”….pound for pound…the best intelligence in the world…even with Fake News!

 Tit for Tat:

            It’s the game that has been played between the West and the East for decades and it will continue here. As a matter of fact, I can even get back on track with my desire to cover the Americas as an example. Both the US and Russian Intelligence Agencies know the status of the Venezuelan military. Both sides know the possibilities of key figures switching over to Guaido and the Russian even posted news stories yesterday on how the worries of Muduro staying in power. That ship for the Russians is sinking and Guaido has already reached out to the Dragon to keep that money train on the tracks. So, what happens? Options. That’s what happens. The Russians have options, as every side always does. Is the Tit for Tat option going to be trouble in Venezuela? Is it going to be Iran in Lebanon? That came up just this week. How about another nudge with the Sultan in Northern Syria? The West gets the NATO expansion prize with the events of North Macedonia, but what are the second and third order effects of that prize? You know, one of my favorite topics….the Law of Unintended Consequences. We will have to wait to see, but I would be willing to bet you, there will be repercussions. Venezuela and North Macedonia and not going to be unanswered “victories”.

RUSSIA….IRAN AND THE SYRIAN TUG OF WAR.

The Russian / Iranian, “Bromance”. Is it in real trouble? Was there ever even such a romance? Since the day the Russians pushed into Syria, I’ve been telling you the “relationship” between Moscow and Tehran was going to become a factor at some point. Who determines the future of Syria? The Mullahs or the Tsar, not to mention the Sultan, but really, he’s not the player here he thinks he is or wants to be. For almost three years I’ve been addressing the issue of vision and whose vision for Syria was going to rule the day. The prediction was, as the end drew near in the Syrian Civil War, the division between the Russians and the Persians would become visible. Some denied it and, in the West, / US/ most were too slow to understand how to manipulate the issue.

The Blinding Obvious:

            For over two years now, just how clear has it been to the Mullahs that Moscow was going to allow the Israelis to strike Hezbollah and Iranian assets inside of Syria? Yes, as I said there would be, Moscow has paid lip service to the actions of the IDF, but everyone knows, to include the old men in Tehran, the Russians would continue to sit on their hands. In What direction has the Mullah’s frustrations truly been focused? Moscow……that’s the direction. Have Tehran’s strong words towards Israel been directed at Israel, or are they really meant for Moscow? Moscow needs, desires a stable environment in the region when it comes to the question of Israel, so what better way to get back at Moscow than to threaten that Russian “vision”?

Tehran’s Goals:

            Let’s go back over something I’ve been saying time and time again. The “vision” from the Mullahs is the control of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen, and that’s not all. Does Moscow support that Iranian “vision”? No, at least not to the degree the Mullahs would believe. For two years now, I’ve talked about the consistent conversations between Russia, the US and the Turks on the topic of Syria. Those same conversations have involved the topic of Iraq and the Kurds. Just what part has Tehran played in these discussions? I think you should know the answer and I can bet you I know the opinion of the old men in Tehran. The future of the region is being shaped by just about everyone with the exception of Iran. How does anyone think that is going over with the Mullahs? While The Donald talks about the need to crush the Mullahs, Moscow continues to lay the groundwork for Syria’s future. Sound like the makings of a domestic disturbance in the “Bromance”? Oh….you bet it does!

Boiling Point:

            Rumors….rumors…..rumors! So the latest “Rumor” has an actual clash between forces supported by Moscow and forces supported by Iran. Here is the bad news for the eye doctor. His Brother is on the side of the Iranians, but it’s the Russians that are keeping the good doctor in power. Sleeping well at night, is he? If the “rumors” are correct and the relationship is leading to a new “Bromance” between the Russians and the Israelis, then an adage comes to mind. “Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned”. In this case, the woman is Iran. Yes folks, the events in the region are heating up and it’s hard for me because I truly want to concentrate on what may be taking place in Venezuela and Mexico, but this open rift between Tehran and Moscow cannot be overlooked. It’s embarrassing for the Tsar and that is a very dangerous action. Now is not the time for the Mullahs to test the resolve of Mr. Putin. Revolution inside Iran could be just a few phone calls away and they may come from Moscow.

PRESIDENT LOPEZ OBRADOR.” IT’S NOT OUR STRATEGY TO ARREST CAPOS ANYMORE”     

          

            Is it a real news flash that AMLO has capitulated against the Mexican Drug Lords? No. From day one of his campaign, he made it clear, when it came to the topic of drugs, he would take Mexico in a new direction. He’s going to do what every devout Socialist truly believes will work. He’s going to provide all things to all the people of Mexico, well, the ones that are truly Mexican. The “others” are permitted to travel through on their way to the US. Will this theory work? No. Is this bad news for the US? Worse than most realize. Is this statement tantamount to handing The Donald the Wall issue on a silver platter? That depends on how good his staff is. What does this mean? What are the repercussions of this new “plan” in Mexico?

Who are the “Capos”?

            Let me give you the ugly truth and you can believe it or not. They are the leadership of Mexico. When you are speaking of an industry that is estimated to be valued at over 60 BILLION US dollars per year, do you really think the level of influence / corruption doesn’t reach all the way to the top in Mexico City? If you don’t, then you have never worked the issue of drugs and Mexico. Yes, you may have read books or watched a series on NETFLIX, but unless you have woken up each day and faced the job of dealing with the Capos industry, then you cannot possibly have an idea of what is taking place. For the new President of Mexico to openly state Mexico will no longer come after them, well, to the Capos, it’s time for a victory party.

            Drugs? So that is what the new President thinks this is all about? Drugs? No. He knows better. He knows the Capos have their fingers in every part of the industrial world inside of Mexico. He knows these Capos are International Crime Syndicates. Ask anyone who is tracking Mexico, who is stealing the largest amount of fuel in the nation? Yep. Some of the Capos actually have their own gas stations. True story!   

Are the Capos going to simply comply with the government, now that they are not “targeted”? Are they going to allow their labor force to dry up because the government is going to take care of everyone? Good luck. Are the Capos going to capitulate the real control of Mexico to a Socialist dreamer? Well, they will tolerate a buffoon as long as that buffoon stays in Mexico City. The rest of Mexico doesn’t belong to him. Letting the Capos “walk”. If that is the perception the new President wants to give, and I don’t think it is, then what is his real intent? Where does he truly want to take Mexico?

AMLO and Maduro:

            Why would AMLO come out in support of Mr. Maduro? No doubt he knew Mr. Baseball and he knows Maduro is no Mr. Baseball. Is it the socialist dream? Does the new Mexican President have some Bolivarian Revolution concept in his head? Is he setting the stage for Mexico to pull away from the West? What benefit is there in attaching yourself to Maduro? What’s the “upside”? Just how upset will Team Trump get with the new President? Do the Capos want to see the “common people” rise up against the government in Mexico City with the new President as their champion? How would that be for business? The baseline of Socialism is the redistribution of wealth and the wealth in Mexico is based upon the drug world. Are we beginning to what could be called a “Clue”? Is the intent of the new President to use the drug world as the financial support for a new “revolution”? He said he would leave them alone, but how about their money? Is any of this good news for Mexico?

Mexico from the eyes of “others”:

            The Sultan supports Maduro. The Tsar supports Maduro. The Dragon supports Maduro? Why? The guy has plunged Venezuela into a crisis. Why do these nations and Cuba, but who cares about Cuba, support the giant Eddi Munster looking nitwit? If you guessed because it’s not about supporting him, but it’s all about creating a crisis in the US’s backyard, then you win the prize. Oh. I forgot to toss into the “support” team, the Mullahs, and some of us know the relationship between Iran / Hezbollah / Mr. Baseball and Eddie.

            So, is that it? Does the new President of Mexico wish to side with those seen as creating “problems” for the US? Let me tell you how easy it is for the NEOCONs to paint this picture. Why the next thing you know, someone will snap a picture of Bolton’s notepad with a note about troops to Mexico. Would it have to be true? Since when does anything on Social Media or the old media have to be true? If the new President walks like a Duck and quacks like a Duck, then those ready to make money in DC will declare him a Duck. But, if the new President of Mexico is truly attempting to walk Mexico into the other side’s camp, if he is looking for Mexico’s share of the “One Belt, One Road” Master Plan, then he really will become a threat to the US. let me close with this thought. At what point in time are the Capos then utilized as a weapon against this potential threat? Can’t happen you say? Perhaps you don’t remember Central America in the 70s and 80s.  Pay attention folks. This is far more complex than the clueless cable news is willing to cover. by the way. did George Soros had a twin brother that ran off to Mexico when he was young? AMLO's body double. 

VENEZUELA AND THE US’S ATTEMPT TO FINALLY GET IT RIGHT.

Back on my soapbox on the issue of Central and South America. At the beginning of the year, I said this section of the world was more important and more interesting to me than the Middle East and I must admit, I had and continue to have a hard time living up to my word. But…..but….. the events in Venezuela give me the desire to stay on task. Would I love to address the growing tension between Iran and Israel or the Sultan’s desires for neutralizing the Kurds? Yes, but Venezuela is the topic of the day and it could easily become much more than just a topic. Will the events there pull the US media away from project “ get Trump”? probably not, unless something takes place that could lead to a story about how The Donald screwed things up with Venezuela, then it might just make the headlines for a day or two. So, let’s go. Let’s take a look at why the story of todays protest in Venezuela matter.

Can the US finally get it right?

            Is backing Juan Guaido the right move? Is he not just another left of Center Liberal in Central or South America? Well, for one thing, just about everyone down there wears the title of “ Social Activist” or Socialist Party to some degree. Where does that leave DC? Just how much do they know about him and how much do they have invested in him? Educated in the US? Yes. Protested against Mr. Baseball….Hugo Chavez? Yes. Supported by the Organization of American States, a concept the US came up with? Yes. Well, it looks like, at least for now, this is “ the guy” the US is going to hang it’s hat on. Is that an improvement over the ruthless military officers the US has backed in the past? Absolutely. Was the VP of the US’s statement about supporting him an example of the US “meddling” in the governance of other nations? Yep. Is that a hot topic in the US right now? Yep. Is it another classic example of, “do as I say, not as I do”? you bet it is, but let’s hold off on that issue for another day😊.

Juan Guaido:

Just what level of “support” is the US willing to provide Juan Guaido? More importantly, what level of “support” is Juan willing to accept? That seems to be where the US historically shoots itself in the foot. Triple Digit Agencies and NGOs have already been “working” inside of Venezuela and only the good Lord knows what the outcome of that might be. Does Juan really trust those who seem to want to “help”? Does he feel like he’s taking out a loan with the Mafia? Who else is willing to “help”? The Dragon? The Tsar? Who is providing help to the current government in Venezuela and how committed are they to combatting the “help” the US may want to provide to Juan? The destabilization of Central America is once again easily a strategic goal of both the Dragon and the Tsar. What better way to pull the US population’s attention away from the Pacific and Europe or even the Middle East than by lighting larger fires on the US border? Don’t forget my theory on The Weaponization of Mass Migration, something I talked about yesterday to a group of folks in Texas.  Juan may have the best intentions to help the people of Venezuela and we all know they could use the help, but is that what everyone else is after? Syria went up in flames as it became a victim of Super Power struggles. Yes, the Super Powers still have struggles and the truth is, they are going to get much worse.

Is the stage set for Civil War?

            Are sections of the Venezuela military still pro US? You bet. What do you think those triple digit agencies and NGOs are doing down there………….. helping the people? Does the current government know this? Silly question, just listen to Maduro speak and you have your answer. Does the government of Maduro truly trust the military? Nope. Why do you think Mr. Baseball / Chavez formed the “ National Bolivarian Militia of Venezuela”…..oh by the way….where did Mr. Baseball get the idea? Tehran…… his old partners in Iran…..you know…. The Basij Forces of Venezuela! So, Juan reaches out today to the Offices and members of the regular military and ask them not to fire on the people protesting. Smart play? You bet it is. Will it work? It doesn’t have to. All he has to do is get Maduro to think it’s might work and he will do the work for Juan. Setting off the emotions of a person who is already paranoid beyond rational thought is not a hard thing to do. Just fly another drone over his head and watch how he reacts.

            Yes. The seeds of a Civil War are in place. Will one take place? The odds are moving in favor of it happening. Will outside players make it far more complicated? Ask anyone in Syria and you will have your answer. Yes. I’m watching the area of the world I said was going to be important in 2019. Let’s just hope I’m wrong on how it’s all going to unfold.

ESCOBAR INCORPORATED AND THE DRIVE TO IMPEACH TRUMP!

            You know, every now and then, I come across a story that just makes me sit and twist my head like a dog hearing a high pitch sound. I had one of those moments this morning. I’ve actually copied the link just so you can witness this head twisting event.

http://www.atimes.com/article/escobar-inc-launching-crypto-to-help-impeach-donald-trump/

Now, I have to admit, when I first began to read this story, my first impression was, it’s just the Escobar clan looking to laundry money, but when I reached the section about the Go Fund Me, I really began to wonder what in the world was going on here.  Roberto Escobar and crypto-currency? That’s not that hard to understand given the amount of money the Escobars made and most likely continue to make in the drug world, but building the plan based on a end-state of “dethroning” The Donald? Why Trump? Why make Trump the centerpiece of a crypto concept? What in the world is going on here?

Opportunity Knocks:

            Has Roberto found a way to tap into the Trumpophobic movement? Does he really think there is enough money to be made from people who hate trump to make such a concept work? Most of the people who run around with their hair on fire over Trump still live in their parent’s basement, much less have large sums of cash to invest in a drug lords crypto scheme. Is Roberto out to make money or hide money? Who was going to be allowed to draw from the Go Fund Me he had set up? Just how much money is the Escobar Inc willing to put into this get Trump plan? I’m telling you, this is one crazy story! They raised 10 million in just 10 hours? From who? Do crime families eventually attempt to go “legit”? Yes, but is that what is really taking place here? If so, then why attach the whole issue of Trump to the idea? Perhaps Roberto is looking to laundry someone else’s money? Who has a great deal of wealth, but doesn’t want his name attached to any “Anti Trump” movement, at least not anymore than it already is?

Trump’s Opportunity:

            The Wall and the flow of drugs and criminals. Two topics the Escobar family fits perfectly. Now, what was and may still be the largest drug lord family in the world is targeting President Trump and doing so right as he is in the middle of the fight over the wall. Yes, opportunity is knocking for The Donald as well. Imagine taking this story to the American people. Imagine painting a picture where the king of Cocaine is out to get him, forget the fact the “King” title may not apply. People don’t read that deep and even if the press did, it would be easy to show the continuing ties to the drug world and the Escobar family. Does anyone really think they have moved completely away from the world that made them a global family?   They are not Irish Catholic. This is not prohibition.

            Trump has the most notorious drug empire in the world after him. How in the world can he let this go by without beating his opposition over the head with it?  How hard would it be to paint a picture of, “if you are against the Wall, than you are for Roberto and his new Crypto scheme? Is it factual? Since when did factual matter anymore? What is the Escobar Inc up to? Something tells me someone knows. How would this plan fund a “Get Trump” movement? That’s the core of what The Donald needs to go after. If you are against the Wall, then you are for Escobar Inc.  a gift is sitting there, but can anyone on The Donald’s staff unwrap it?

THE CHINESE NATIONAL ANTHEM. WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Imagine waking up one morning in the US and hearing on the news the government had just passed a law that made it illegal to “ridicule or insult” the National Anthem and the fine was up to 3 years in prison, or, “custodial term” as the Dragon calls it. Sounds crazy? Well, ask the people of Hong Kong. You remember Hong Kong, right? The Territory that was assimilated by the Dragon based upon an old treaty. A place the rest of the world as well as the people of Hong Kong were told, ‘don’t worry. You can still do your own thing, you just have the Dragon as your new upper level of government now’.  Don’t sing the song funny….Roseanne Barr better stay away. Don’t alter the lyrics or score to insult or poke fun at the Dragon’s Anthem.  Ah yes, to be a “Special Administrative Region” under the Dragon. Just look what the world has to look forward to. Get those 1^st graders marching the right way, or off to “custodial” duty you go! I wonder how many years of “custodial” time Colin Kaepernick would be willing to endure, but then again, this is the US’s trading partner. This is the nation The Donald is creating a crisis with. Why, we all know that Trump hates the US economy, profit margins, people of color, kids and birds and the climate and everything else you can think of.  I bet he would love to have this Anthem Law in the US. That must be why he is standing in front of the Dragon and threatening to cripple the Dragon’s dream of global economic dominance, something I don’t think he can prevent. The West loves low cost toys and if a few people have to go to , “ Custodial Duty” then let’s all just close our eyes and keep thinking the Dragon is nothing more than another nation  the West must keep happy. Does all this really matter? Do the actions of one nation really deserve the attention of others? I guess it just depends on the nation and what they bring to the table. By they way, it was just over a month ago I mentioned the process of the Dragon, “reeducating” Muslims inside the Dragon’s domain. But does any of that matter? At what point do the actions of the Dragon reach a level the West must pay attention. Trip them up now, before it’s too late for the rest of the world. That seems to be the Trump plan, but then again, Trump hates everything that breathes and most likely tosses Illegal Immigrant kids down a secret well hole inside the White House.

Taiwan:

   What is the breaking point for people to stop siding with the Dragon and start understanding what Trump is trying to accomplish….well…maybe! Is that wakeup call Taiwan? On January 2^nd 2019, the Dragon called for “reunification”. Some even believe the Hong Kong model is the right approach between China and Taiwan. Maybe, just don’t disrespect the Anthem though.

            Last week, the Dragon ordered Its military to prepare for “all-out war”. Ever taken a gander at what that means? Ever read the Chinese doctrine of, Unrestricted Warfare”? No? don’t worry, if you are under 50 years old, you will most likely live to see it firsthand. In the past few years, the Dragon’s approach to Taiwan has grown bolder by the day. Would the West fight a war with China over Taiwan? No treaty spells out such support. Can you imagine Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer even contemplating supporting Trump if such an event took place? What’s a few hundred thousand dead on the other side of the world if it means being able to blame Trump? Trust me, if the Dragon goes after Taiwan in the next sixteen months, it will be Trump’s fault and Chuck and Nancy will be in a foot race to see who gets to the podium first to say so.

            Taiwan. That country that sits in the Middle of the South China Sea. Taiwan. That country that shows the people of China an alternative. What happens if Taiwan doesn’t stand up for the Anthem? Would the people of the US simply shrugged their shoulders and say, “look what Trump did now”. Taiwan slides closer to the teeth of the Dragon by the day, but the Apple Phones keep flowing…so…… “its cool”….. nothings really going to happen.

The Philippines:

            Short story. Sounds like Mr. Duterte is not satisfied with just getting his Bell back. For some time now, many have been speculating the somewhat unstable, inject laughter here, Mr. Duterte is getting ready to make up his mind. Does he side with the Dragon or does he stick with the US? Giving the Bell back was a gesture. I’m not sure how that “gesture” stacks up against China’s economy, but the Philippines has to be a future meal on the Dragon’s mind and you have to wonder how Australia views that menu. Yes folks, the Dragon is moving. Methodically and with a great cover story called the “ Belt and Road Initiative”. Just how many countries will be sending people off to “Custodial Time” for disrespecting the “March of the Volunteers”?  

Colin. You are a young man. You believe you have the right to take a knee. If I were you. I would learn that new Anthem or…….. join the “resistance” …. Not the one against Trump, but the one Trump is trying to head.