BRAZIL AND VENEZUELA. TWO EVENTS THAT NEED MORE ATTENTION.

            I’ve been preaching how the US must pay more attention to the “Americas” or else, and so, this is me, living up to what I’ve been pounding the pulpit about. Two events that need public attention. First off, it appears Mr. Maduro has actually made a statement about a potential meeting with The Donald. That folks is a big…..big….change. I know the US population was lost in the High School Yearbook story for the past two weeks, but trust me, someone has picked up on this statement. There is no way the US Department of State did not see the potential opportunity here. Just two weeks ago, rumors were out there of the US plotting a coup against Mr. M. and those rumors were coming from other sources than Mr. M himself. Now, it seems the Hugo Chavez wannabe is openly stating he is willing to talk to Trump. Interesting. He goes from the guy saying, Trump is out to kill me and in fact tried, to the guy who says, “ good things can happen”. Significant to say the least. What’s even more interesting is the fact it appears no one is running to the aid of Mr. M. The flow of Chinese money is not at a level of saving  Venezuela and China’s not interested in saving anyone anyway. Russia? Nope. No lifeline there. A few scraps here and there and maybe some arms sales of stuff that Venezuela doesn’t need, but in the end, Moscow sees no value in putting food back in the mouths of the Venezuelan people and trust me, that’s how bad it’s become there. Seen any dogs or cats roaming the streets there lately?

            Venezuela is a collapsing state and a problem that will not be fixed by Columbia or Brazil. As a matter of fact, a collapsing state may just be what the Chinese and the Russians are counting on. Fires in the US’s backyard has been a decades old concept for keeping the US occupied and a fire is exactly what Venezuela has turned into. Did I mention that Iran’s involvement in Venezuela has become insignificant? That’s because I didn’t mean to mention them. That relationship was based on nothing more than funding streams for Hezbollah as well as a way to place operatives near the US and believe me when I tell you, the subject of Hezbollah and it’s “relationship” with Mr. M’s country will be one of the first things the US brings up, if they talk.  

            Maduro has known from the very beginning, what he inherited from Hugo was a failed formula.  The Venezuelan Robin Hood, Hugo, ran into the same problem every Socialist State does. Eventually, you run out of the other guys money. Robbing the so called “Rich” to give to the poor leads to the Rich wanting to kill Robin Hood, or moving away from him or running out of money. In Venezuela’s case, all three took place. Is Mr. M truly looking to sit down with The Donald? Is he watching the North Korea model and saying to himself, “maybe that works for me”? There is no better way to try to avoid an Assassin than to ask if you can have a meeting with them, especially after he just missed😊.   Is Mr. M willing to fly the US flag in his next parade? Does The Donald’s Hard-Ass approach seem to be working once again? That would make the Teletubby Liberals head’s explode. A come to Jesus meeting prior to the November Mid-Terms is exactly what the R’s in DC would love to see. Yet another hugo, I mean huge victory for The Donald?

Brazil’s Donald:

            The Left of Left media has already place the label of the Brazilian “Trump” on this guy with his, “Make Brazil Great Again” pitch. Will it work? Again, after ten years or so of Robin Hood mentality, it appears a lot of people in Brazil are looking at Venezuela like a crystal ball. Mr. Bolsonaro is called “Far-Right”, but to the way….way …..left….that could mean he’s just this side of Center. It’s kinda like calling Rouhani a “ Moderate”.

            Brazil is part of the BRIC and that is only because the Chinese see Brazil as a major player in this century, based on land mass and natural resources. If Brazil was in the same shape as Venezuela, you would see a much different approach by the Chinese. Here is the problem, the future of Brazil and Argentina is the future of Central and South America. The amount of effort towards Brazil needs to be far beyond the issues of Venezuela. For the US to have a “Friend” in Brazil is critical and that criticality is much sooner than most think. The US’s past “friends” have had……let us say……. issues….and that is one of the major reasons the Robin Hoods of the region came into power. What Brazil needs is a businessman and one that doesn’t dance on the strings of China or the US. Having said that, you can bet the battle for influence over Mr. Bolsonaro is going to be far more intense than anything taking place in Mr. M’s country. You can also bet, the process of building a relationship with Mr. Bolsonaro has been underway for months, or at least I would hope so. What does the Dragon bring to the table and what does the US bring, that is the question?

            Brazil, Venezuela and don’t forget Mexico are all suddenly issues on the table for the US. The new President of Mexico is talking like another chapter of the Central and South American Robin Hoods, but we will see how he acts once he’s in power.  The real issue here is the reality that things in the US’s backyard are taking place and the US needs to understand how important they are to the future of the region. Meantime, the current enemies, competition, take your pick, of the US are strategizing what this means to them. Mr. M states he thinks talking to The Donald will bring good things, but is that what “others” want? He should never forget, Assassins can be paid by more than one client. As for Mr. Bolsonaro, if he puts on a red, Make Brazil Great Again hat and is seen smiling with The Donald, the liberal Press is going to come at him with everything they have and the Dragon may support that disruption in many different ways. Choose your friends wisely you two…..there is danger in every direction you look. Who knows where the next Robin Hood get’s his or her funding!

A CHINESE SENIOR COMMUNIST PARTY MEMBER RUNS INTERPOL? WAIT….WHAT?

            INTERPOL, for decades, one of the most respected law enforcement agencies in the world. For two years now, it’s leader has been a Chinese Senior Communist Party Member. Now, I know in the world of 24/7/365/ tabloid news, it’s not hard to have important stories not see the coverage they should, but really…………….how did this one happen? Does the world typically follow who is elected the President of INTERPOL? No. Should it? Well, if the Chinese are going to buy their way into running the so called “International Police Agency, then yes…..yes….perhaps people should take notice.

            How would you like to be a Chinese Dissident, not just in China, but anywhere in the world and know this guy is the head of INTERPOL? Yes, I know, he has a 40 yr record of being in law enforcement, but that was in China and I would go out on a limb here and state that means something much different in China than it does in the US or even Europe. How did he get in this position? Most will probably say, “ He has an impeccable record”. I don’t know the guy, but my Spider Senses tell me the Chinese government would not send someone there that was not, “useful” to them……come to think of it…..what country wouldn’t?  Is there a difference? You bet there is. In the US, a person may go over to that job and most levels inside the US government wouldn’t think twice, with the exception  the perhaps the IC. China? Now, that’s a completely different story. Don’t know who the voting members were that put Mr. Hongwei in power, but you can bet the “deals” / money / to help win those votes was part of the process. Is Mr. Hongwei an “Agent” for the Chinese Government? Let me reshape that question. How could he not be?

Exposure:

            I know the argument will be, “ just because he’s the President of the organization, that doesn’t mean he has access to critical, criminal cases. He’s more of an administrative figurehead and doesn’t s get exposed to day to day cases”.  If you take that approach, I have some Swamp Land in Arizona for sale.  As a guy who wore a gun and a badge for a living, let me give you one saying to live by….well….one of many! “ Major Cases have Major Attention”. For most working level Cops, that’s a nice way of saying, if you’re working something important, then your “Bosses” are all over you and want to know everything. If that case has political stink on it, It’s not really even your case at that point. I have a story about a French Captain in Tirana  Albania that I will tell some other time, just to make my point.

            Let’s take a dose of reality here. What information was this guy in a position to channel back to China? Does anyone think the Counter Intelligence Community didn’t set up a “process” when they learned this Senior Chinese Communist Party Member was becoming the President of INTERPOL? If not, you really don’t know how the world works. Mr. Hongwei is missing and the Chinese Government isn’t saying anything? Still think he was just a regular guy who happen to win the job of the International Police Agency? He went home, why, is a good starting point, and now, no one has heard out of him. This honest John must have gotten lost somewhere? Or……or……his real Bosses have him. Why would they do that? What could he have done to make him go home and step on to the plastic covered carpet? What did he do? What did he not do? What would be a great way to have Mr. Hongwei removed from his position? Could someone or some agency with three letters allow him to pass bad scoop? Did someone paint a picture of him playing his Bosses for fools? Is he being “interviewed” or is he sleeping with the Fishes?

            Mr. Hongwei could be a standup guy and perhaps the only thing someone has against him is rumor?  Perhaps the issue here is a paranoid Boss? What he has done or has not done probably doesn’t matter. Perception rules the day in this world and someone’s perception was he needed to come home for an “interview”, without telling anyone why. The rumor is, he’s under investigation and that’s the rumor in the “nonclassified” world…called the “White World”. You can rest assured, the “Black World” had a better understanding of what has taken place and it has nothing to do with his job performance, unless you admit his real job was to funnel information.

 INTERPOL is connected with several of the world’s major law enforcement agencies. What has been their approach to INTERPOL since Mr. Hongwei showed up? Just how much information sharing has there been? Yep, this story jumped up on the news today, but only for a few hours. In the US, it’s all about another guy and his High School Year Book. Something tells me, this story is far….far bigger than the media understands, but then again, the media doesn’t care unless they can blame Trump.

CHINA AND SYRIA. IT APPEARS THE BORG SPACESHIP IS LANDING IN DAMASCUS.

            If I could draw, I would love to post a cartoon here of a large Dragon with it’s Left Wing draped over a Bear who is standing there… sweating profusely with a nervous smile on it’s face…..really.. I would love that, for it tells the story that everyone needs to read.

            It appears the Borg Spaceship is actually going to make a landing in Damascus. It seems the Borg have determined Syria will be assimilated into the Belt& Road Initiative.   http://www.atimes.com/article/china-stakes-out-a-role-for-itself-in-post-war-syria/

The Chinese are announcing they will spend billions on the “rebuilding” of Syria. I would change “rebuilding” to “ Restructuring”. The Borg will make Syria more efficient, more functional as part of the larger “collective”….you know…. Belt&Road! Yes, it could be, Syria has now been chosen to be “assimilated” into the greater cause. There is no need other nations to wish to help, such as Iran and it’s dream of placing automobile manufacturing in Syria. Chinese cars are, “More appealing”. That’s code for, “go home and wait for us to show up…you are on the list for assimilation”.

            China will also support the restructuring, sorry… rebuilding of the Syrian military. Wait, isn’t that Moscow’s job? Never fear, the Dragon and the Bear are “partners” in all things military……Dear Russian people….please think about the cartoon I wish I could draw!  China is showing up to help with the Terrorist? Can anyone being assimilated ask the Chinese what the definition of “Terrorism” is? Let me give you a hint. If you are devout in your religion……if you are dedicated to maintaining your independence, then you are most likely going to end up on the “Terrorist Watch List”…..Chinese Version. Does a Muslim constitute a potential “Terrorist” to the Chinese government? You bet. What is the government of China? Yep…. Communist. What religion do Communist follow? The religion of power and obedience.

The Honey:

            What is the allure the Chinese keep using? Money! What is it going to take to even start to restructure…sorry…did it again….rebuild Syria? Money and a lot of it. New ports, a port where the Russians are currently located by the way…..but don’t worry……that doesn’t worry Moscow😊. New industry…….industry that will be run by the Chinese government. Yep….money is the honey and once you are stuck in the Chinese honey….like the US is, it’s virtually impossible to get away.

Organized Religion:

            To the Chinese government and it’s new Emperor, the concept of organized religion is nothing more than a threat to long term stability. Religion does nothing other than give resistance hope. Religion, especially the Muslim faith must be controlled if the Borg is to assimilate the world. It’s that Muslim faith that worries them the most right now and as China restructures the definition of “Terrorism”, you can bet more and more of the names added to the list will have Muslim backgrounds.

            It was only a few weeks ago I spoke to the issue of Chinese “support” to Afghanistan. Once again, two themes were prevalent, Terrorism and Belt&Road. Now, the story is Syria, the training base for well organized and experienced “Terrorist”. The problem is, the definition of Terrorism is much broader to the Chinese than to the West or even the nervous Bear. Soon, perhaps too soon, the definition of a Terrorist could be anyone that doesn’t bow to the new Emperor of China. My last thought of the day is a warning to the Middle East. Watch the Star Trek Episodes with the Borg, for that is who is landing in your capitals. If you answer, “so what? The Colonial Powers did the same thing? Well, I would agree, but some Master’s are far more uncompromising than others. For the people who live with the Bear, I would bet you the Dragon still wonders what Bear taste like. 

MACEDONIA AND SERBIA. WHAT IS TAKING PLACE?

            With The typical antics taking place in DC again this week, it’s easy to overlook other events that could truly impact the rest of the world. Events in Macedonia and Serbia qualify as just the type of “events” I’m talking about. So, if you are sitting there and wondering why those two small nations suddenly have topics worthy of attention, let me give you a quick down and dirty on the issue at hand. 

Refresher:

            What is the primary issue that has Putin driving the Russian ship towards dominance? What haunts him the most about the fall of the Soviet Empire? What promise was made to Moscow and then broken? Why is Putin really out to show the world Russia is a world leader once again? What part of the world is Moscow willing to fight over if need be? Every question above has one common answer. Europe, more specifically, Eastern Europe. As a quick refresher, pull up the map of Europe and take a look at where Macedonia and Serbia sit. Now, think about what it was the Soviet Union spent millions and millions of lives to create. Yes. The so called “Buffer Zone” of Eastern Europe. What’s the history of that part of Europe and Russia? What has Eastern Europe been to the Russians? Yes, the gateway to invasion and it’s been that way for over a thousand years.

            When the Serbian conflict took place in 1999, the Russian government nor its military was in no condition to support the Serbs and nuclear war was out of the question. So, what did Putin and the rest of the Russian government witness? The Westernization of yet another slice of the old “Buffer Zone” and the movement of NATO, a combat force, closer to the Russian border. Does anyone think for a minute the final “agreement” that was reached in the Serbian conflict was something Moscow truly supported? Was that situation settled or tolerated? Hint, most conflicts such as Serbia are never “tolerated” for very long.

 https://sputniknews.com/europe/201809301068464806-putin-vucic-kosovo-situation-advice/

Take a look at the way the Russian news addresses Kosovo. “ The Self-proclaimed Republic of Kosovo”. That’s what I  call a “clue”. And just what is it the Serbian President is doing? Why, the same thing Moscow stated Assad did. He’s asking Moscow for it’s “help”. Bloodlines. Has anyone stopped to think about the ‘bloodlines” between the Russians, at least the ones running the country now, and the Serbians. The Conflict in Serbia was a humiliating event for the Russians and one their leader didn’t forget. The events that have taken place in the Ukraine and Crimea are a direct result of what took place in Serbia. The message was clear. “Not this time”.

https://sputniknews.com/europe/201604081037702100-thaci-kosovo-presidency-analysis/

What are the current feelings towards Kosovo you might ask? Well, just read the caption of the story I’ve attached and you should get the next “clue”. Is this issue with Serbia important? You bet it is. Will Moscow stand by and watch Kosovo make trouble for Serbia? No. Is Kosovo out to make trouble for Serbia? It really doesn’t matter.

Macedonia votes:

http://tass.com/politics/1023794

Macedonia votes. The West wakes up this morning and states, the vote is just a formality and the fact the 50 percent threshold was not reached doesn’t stop the government from moving ahead with the actions needed to join the EU and NATO. Well, that’s not how Moscow sees it. Is this little country as important to Moscow as Serbia? No. Is the issue of yet another nation allowing NATO forces into it’s land a big deal? Yes. Is it a “deal” that makes Moscow willing to respond? Well, that’s the worry, at least on my part. I know the argument is Romania and Bulgaria already are playing around with the NATO game, so why would Macedonia matter?  It matters because Moscow needs to keep pockets of “resistance” inside the new NATO territory. Bosnia and Herzegovina is pushing is heading in the NATO direction and don’t be shocked if Moscow does everything in its power to disrupt that process. Did I mention the mess taking place in Moldova? You can add that issue to the list as well. By the way, it’s the Greeks that have forces this issue with Macedonia and their feelings towards name stealing. Who has Moscow been courting for the past three years? Did you say Turkey? Bingo, and what is the relationship between Turkey and the Greeks? Georgia and it’s “relationship with NATO? Just thought I would toss that one in there.

What does it all mean?

            Do the events in Macedonia and Serbia have anything to do with anything? Should anyone truly be waking up today and saying, “ Hmmm”,  that’s not good?  Does anyone think the IL20 event and the S300 deployment have anything to do with Macedonia and Serbia? If the West is still applying pressure on Russia in Eastern and Southern Europe, and Moscow has been countering that pressure with actions in the Middle East, do you think some additional events might take place soon? Could an Israeli fighter be shot down by so called Syrian S300 units as Iran once again attempts to move weapons to Hezbollah? Could some event take place between Serbia and the So called self-proclaimed nation of Kosovo or it’s “Bandit” President? Yes the soap opera in DC continues, but their could be a new show that might grab the rather short attention span of the US population soon, but then again, it will all be The Donald’s fault and that’s how CNN and MSNBC will cover whatever happens.  Hey. Those guys in the last story I copied the link to, the one about the “Bandit”……………… talk about Sanitized.  

ACAPULCO AND THE SNAPSHOT OF WHERE THINGS CONTINUE TO HEAD.

            Yesterday, I made the point the US needed to walk away from Europe and begin to repair its badly broken relationship with Central and South America. So, today, I need to start practicing what I preach. Towards the end of my career, I had the privilege of working with some of the finest professionals I’ve ever shared a mission with. They were both Civilian, Federal and locals. The mission was overwhelming, but extremely important. Our task was to find ways to make the border of Texas and Mexico safer. My teams position was one based on support to the State of Texas and I can say it was my dream task as I ended by 32yrs of service with Uncle Sam. I’ve written about Mexico in the past and I’ve even started a separate blog site, before I realized it was just easier to keep up with one instead of two, but times continue to change and that means Mexico continues to change as well.

Same Old….Same Old:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-45648199

When I read about the events in Acapulco yesterday, It didn’t stand out to me as anything new. I had watched and talked about civilian police departments being taken over by the Mexican Military for years, so nothing new right? Wrong. This process of relieving of a whole department had taken place before throughout Mexico, but typically in the smaller towns of more remote regions. This was Acapulco, this is a major city and that made this story catch my eye. Now, I could have picked up the phone and asked a few old friends what was going on, but I already knew the answer. It’s the same answer that has been taking place all over Mexico for decades. Poorly trained, poorly paid and a broken legal system. That is what the people of Mexico must rely on when it comes to civilian law enforcement. I know I’ve said this before, but it needs to be repeated. Depending what country you live in as your read this, can you imagine having your regular military placed into the streets as your day to day law enforcement? Some may not find that too unusual, but most would find that more than alarming. Yet, you can bet, tons of people, tourist, are planning trips to Acapulco as I write this. Imagine coming off the aircraft or cruise ship and seeing the US Marines or US Army patrolling the streets of San Francisco or New York. Here is the sad part. To the people of Mexico, it’s the new normal. Most don’t even bat an eye at the site of armored vehicles instead of police squad cars. In the end, the most dangerous answer or response the US can have to the story of Acapulco is, “ So what? It’s Mexico and it’s always like that”.

Times are Changing:

            When I was a Commander, the one thing I couldn’t stand was complacency. If we were looking at a bad situation and someone said, “so what. It’s always like that”, well, they usually didn’t, at least not where I could hear them. When we look at Mexico and other troubled nations to the South of the US, we typically forget one key issue, especially at the US political level. “Others” are looking as well. Does anyone think it’s a coincidence a Chinese Medical Ship made a Port of Call in Venezuela? What government in Central or South America hates the US the most, at least at this moment in time? Are the Chinese there to make the people of Venezuela feel better? If you just answered yes, then stop here and go read the sports page.

            Okay, it’s broken record time, but let’s go over this again. The concept of the US’s enemies wishing to leverage weakness in the US’s “backyard” is nothing new. What is new is the way that “leverage” can now take place. Social Media is now a very powerful weapon. Blending Fake News with Real News has become a great way to distort reality. But, when you add all the ways the enemies of the US can now influence events in Central and South America and mix it with good old fashion US complacency, you have a recipe for disaster. The end-bound President of Mexico is going to be looking for new friends, friends with money. Who would that be? Venezuela’s government will sell their Socialist Soul for economic support and if that support came from a nation that upset the US, then they will double down on their desire for help.  

            The people of Mexico have no desire to see their military patrolling the streets of any town or city. They want what everyone else in this world wants. They want the same thing the folks in Venezuela want. If it continues to be obvious the US’s stance is “ so what, It’s always been like that”, then someday soon, perhaps too soon, the topic will be how China is now running a National Police Academy for Mexico, or, how China is conducting joint military exercises with Venezuela. If you don’t think that is possible, then pick up that sport’s page and keep reading.

DEAR UNITED STATES. IT’S TIME TO SAY GOODBYE TO EUROPE.

I think I may have made this point a few years ago and I can’t remember what the circumstance was, but that was then, and this is now and this article sent me over the edge. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45634448

For far too long, the US has carried Europe’s water based upon the ever decreasing heritage with the US. Twice Europe has driven itself into a war that consumed the world and after the 2^nd event, the US stood as the only barrier between true Communism and the Socialist playground Europe became. For decades nobody in Europe really had to worry about The Big Red Machine grinding its way into their towns because the US stood in their way. For those same decades, Europe was able to build their pie in the sky social programs because they lived under the wings of the US Eagle. But then, as is the case with any spoiled child, those very countries living under the Eagle’s wings, began to despise the protection they were given. Now, after two generations of idealistic dreamers, it seems Europe is so resentful of the US, little girls like Federica Mogherini and the dream land of this thing called the EU has decided to openly stand against the US. I know this is not the first time, but as I have said before, that was then and this is now. The “We hate Trump” crowd seems to believe that sending money to a government that hangs people from construction cranes in public squares is the best way to appease them. Perhaps Ms. Mogherini should go read European history a little closer and look up the chapter about a British political leader by the name of Chamberlain.

            I fully realize the true dreams of Europe is to have Donald Trump removed from office and have someone living off of George Soros’ funds to move in, but parts of Europe, growing parts I might add, are beginning to see what their real future is. European Leaders can claim they are not anti-Semite, also claim the position of appeasement towards Iran is not as dangerous os standing up to them. Sound familiar? Mr. Chamberlain and others in Europe tried the same approach. So, Ms. Mogherini somehow believe sitting with the puppet Zarif is the best course of action for the EU. So be it. Let it be a course of action that Europe must live with and let it be a course of action as the US walks away, but ah yes, she is not planning on that happening. What she and those that think like her are planning on is the fall of Donald Trump. At best Europe hopes they have to put up with him for only two more years, and then a likeminded, Progressive, Europe envying person will walk into the White House and it’s Teletubby time. I’m confident Ms. Mogherini wouldn’t mind if someone walked into the room and told her the US was pulling out of NATO. That maybe the one issue she and I would agree on.   

Time for a cool change:

            Okay, here comes another bolt of reality, but this time it’s for the US. What landmass is the US connected to? What is the demographic future of the US? It’s time for the US to look South and North and not East. Let the land of Teletubby leaders find their new reality, but this time, when the fire alarm sounds, dont answer. It’s time to shore up the relationship the US has been screwing up for well over a hundred years. It’s time to bond with the Americas and leave Europe to find it’s own future, no matter how ugly it gets, no matter how many screams come from the land that once the US felt bound to defend.

            Europe is going to face a new reality, a reality that is already inside it’s bloodstream; Radical Islam and the new Count Dracula who will agree to save them, but only at a price. The Teletubby Team led by Ms Mogherini can take a knee to religious fanatics or they can take a knee to the Tsar, but ether way, the Eagle’s Wings should no longer provide them cover. It’s time for the US to look Central and South America in the eye and say, “we are sorry”, but we will work to make things right now”.   It will take time and it may not work, but it’s the right thing to do and it can’t start too soon. The only danger to this theory is the US itself. The rot that now exist inside the US government is unlike any point in the past. One party has done everything they can to create its own version of Teletubbies, but now, those same little adorable transgenders, whatever they are, are growing violent. If you are not with them, then they chase you out of restaurants. They follow you to work and they threaten your families. They do this all in the name of stopping “Fascism, and they do so by using the Fascist playbook.  You see, it’s okay to be violent as long as you are being violent because the other side is accused of being violent. Yes, the US has a disease and it could very well be fatal. The Teletubbies in the US have been genetically altered into a species that is willing to burn down the town. Perhaps Central and South America and even Canada should go ahead and close the doors now. I’m not sure the US’s ask for forgiveness is going to be accepted in the next 50 yrs and by that time, I’m not sure what the US will look like. Maybe the best bet for Central and South America is to learn how to speak Mandarin? As for the US. It’s hard to defend your allies when your own house is on fire.

Last comment. Look at the face of Zarif in the picture from the attached article and you tell me if that is not the look of a man who thinks he has an idiot sitting next to him? Europe Appeases Iran, Russia blocks Israel from striking Iranian assets in Syria and folks….you have the makings of a regional war.

S-300 TO SYRIA………………………….NOW WHAT?

Okay. The Russians and the Israelis had their meeting over how the IL20 was lost. At the end of the day, as I stated last week, it just gets harder and harder for the Russians to find a happy place with their involvement in Syria. Most of us gave the Russian approach two options. 1. Find a ‘off-ramp’ after a great deal of harsh words towards Israel. 2. Create or leverage another event to take the world’s eye of the event. I say the world’s eye, because I’m not sure the people back in Russia will be so easily distracted. The question becomes, what course of action did the Russians take? Like anything that comes from Moscow, its seems the answer is a hybrid of both options. The announcement of the S-300s sent off alarm bells in most Simi-informed communities and that news came on the heels of the most successful Terrorist attack in Iran in years. Are the two events related? Well, that depends on how complicated you believe Moscow can be. Is Russia capable of leveraging the two events to strengthen their position? Yes. If you can’t see how the attack in Iran can be folded into the larger picture of Moscow’s response to the downing of the IL20, then I’ll paint you a picture, but it may be one of those that you look at for hours and still not see the shape. Anyway, let me give this a shot.

Proxys:

            What is Iran to Russia? A tool, a proxy in the much larger struggle with the West. Why was Iran truly left out of the real deal making with Turkey over Idlib? Yep. Because they are nothing more than a proxy. Why have Iranian assets in Syria been allowed to be repeatedly targeted by Israel? Yep. Proxy. Why were the deals with Israel and the US over the status of Iranian forces in Southern Syrian struck without Tehran’s reps at the table? Yep. What needed to happen soon after the downing of the Russian aircraft to take the tension off the event? Yep……proxy. What is the major topic of the US and the UN meeting this week? Yep, the proxy. What is the most dangerous scenario for the entire region? Yep, a war with the proxy and Israel. Here’s an interesting side note. Did anyone here a statement about the attack in Iran being the work of the Zionist? Interesting! Where was the “ we shall destroy them” speeches from Tehran? Not a word about the actions of the “Jews”. Okay, back to the point. What good would it do Moscow to have a major attack take place in Iran? It could get the proxy leadership distracted while a much larger decision is being made. It could also inflame the proxy to the point that they do something stupid as their Master looks on. Yank the chain on one of your rabid dogs and get everyone looking at them as you change your plans somewhere else. Changing plans? If that is what is taking place in Syria, and I go back to my stuck in the mud theory, then that new change may be more dangerous than we think. By the way, could the Russians manipulate an attack in Iran? Piece of cake.

A New Course:

            S-300 into Syrian military hands? Well, maybe in the press release, but does anyone really think the fire control authority will rest outside the Russians? You can bet the IDF knows who will have launch authority. The statement is, “two weeks”. The new systems will be operational in two weeks and “new” electronic jamming operations will be put in place as well. What’s the message here and who is the message for? The downing event was a huge blow to the Moscow’s status in the world, an event worse than the Turkish incident. Just how much has this event changed the course for Moscow? Is Russia now truly prepared to keep Israel from striking Iranian assets in Syria? Is that the real change here? If that is true, and I’m not convinced it is, then the road to a regional war just became much shorter. If Israel can no longer control the flow of assets being moved from Iran into Hezbollah’s hands, then they have two courses of action; take out the supplier at the source or take out the receiving body. Before Moscow made the decision to deny Israel strikes into Syria, these two courses of action were reviewed, that, I can guarantee you. If it’s no longer about Iran’s humiliation of repeatedly being targeted by the IDF without any repercussions, and it is truly an event where the Russians have reached a loggerhead with Israel, then just how embolden will the Iranians become? If there is anything the Iranians need right now, it’s the ability to look as if they are in control of their own fate, besides, every once and a while, you must give your proxy a bone.

            This week is all about Iran and The Donald’s speech at the UN, at least that’s the way the region sees it. To the US, it’s all about a High School party 35 yrs ago. To Moscow, it’s about a major change of course in the Middle East. It’s about a drastic change of course with Israel. Is that where Russia is heading? The meeting between the two seemed to end with the Russians demanding the downing of the IL 20 was exclusively Israel’s fault? Do they really believe that? If they do, then the close airspace issue is for real. If they do, then Iran is free to move whatever they want, or at least that is what Tehran may believe. Tehran may believe they have top cover for extracting revenge for the attack on their parade, they love parades. If all of this madness is somehow rationalized inside Moscow, then a critical error has been made and it would be one I find it hard to believe the Russians would make. Resolve! Israel’s resolve to survive as a nation is at stake here. The risk of actually fighting it’s way through Russian controlled networks will be contemplated against the alternative; taking out the supplier or the receiving body. By the way, there is a huge risk on the Russian side that you can bet they have thought about. If the IDF is forced to neutralize Russia’s so called top of the line networks in Syria, then how do you sell them to the rest of the world? Declare the airspace closed and then let assets you are protecting get hit, and good luck selling those systems. Perhaps that’s why the announcement was for S300, and not S400s. The Russians are about to put the Iranians in a very dangerous position. Does Israel attack Russian manned networks, please don’t tell me Syrians will run the S300s, or do they attack Hezbollah? An Israeli conflict with Hezbollah? A gift the unstable government in Tehran would welcome. In their eyes, it’s always been, “Jews killing Arabs” as the Persians look on. Okay. Here is my last bet. If Russia gives this equipment to Syria and states Syria has control, then the IDF will strike Syrian military assets and wait to see what direction the air transport go home in with the body bags. By the way. Be careful what “expert” you listen to when they say the IDF could not have used the Russian UL20 as “Cover”. Their minds are stuck in old school…back in the day when the IDF would hide their radar signature behind another aircrafts. That is not what is being talked about here. The issue is, for the Russians, the Israelis flew close enough to the IL20 that the Syrian systems were afraid to shoot. That is the Russian version of the event and that is what has them willing to up the stakes now.