IRANIAN’S PROTEST. IS THERE ANYTHING DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

          I’m not sure what round this is, but it appears the old men in Tehran are facing yet another cycle of        protest against the government. Will this one play itself out like those in the past year or so? Most likely, at least that’s what the countries leadership is hoping for. Is there anything different this time around? Yes. The economy is even worse than in December of 2017. Is it bad enough for this uprising to take hold this time? That’s hard for anyone to predict, but if you watch the clips from the protest, it’s clear the government forces are reluctant to just go in and crush the events. Will the infamous rooftop snipers come into play? That depends on the government believing this round of protest may not subside. Remember, nothing disperses a crowd like seeing someone’s head explode. The odds are, the old men in Tehran are going to let this one playout for another day or two and then readdress their options. So, in the end, is this event any different than what we have witnessed in the past? Times have changed, and change is what makes a new protest potentially much different than past events.

From Bad to Worse:

          The Donald’s move on the Iranian nuclear “deal” set into motion a series of events that both DC and Tehran knew would impact the day to day lives in Iran. The continued crash of the Iranian currency was a predictable outcome of the US pulling out of the “deal”. The old men in Teheran also understood it would be increasingly difficult to blame Iran’s economy on the actions of the US. They can make that statement, but they also know the odds of the public believing that excuse is very slim. Their evidence is the fact none of the protest are marching to the chant of “Death to America”. Now, you can bet the government’s counter marches will begin ether today or in the next few days. If the old men don’t attempt this historical tactic, then that’s a sign they may be more worried than we know. They have two choices. They can attempt to contain the protest and hope the marching and yelling gets old; not the government’s style by the way. Or, they can meet the protest head on like they did the Green Party in 2009. That tactic worked then, but when they told Assad to use it in 2011, all hell broke loose! The old men in Tehran have one more option, but it’s by far the most dangerous option.

Outside Threat:

          It’s a timeless option nearly every government in history has turned to. If you have to rally a populace that is unwilling to support the government, then make them fear something far worse. Does anyone remember, “THE RUSSIANS ARE COMING”! Yep, the proverbial “Outside Threat”. It’s a tactic the old men in Tehran have used in the past, but this time around might be different. If the failing economy is the real catalyst of a pending revolt, why would they not use this time tested approach? My bet is they will, and they may do so in a dramatic fashion. Would the old men in Tehran risk a conflict for the sake of saving their rule? Absolutely. Would they risk this conflict on their own soil? That depends on just how desperate they become. For example, let’s say Iran pushes the events in Southern Syria to the point a limited conflict between Israel and Syria takes place. Could Tehran convince the youth of Iran the time had come to show their nationalistic pride? Remember this sense of Persian Pride is something the IRGC has been trying to populate inside the youth of Iran for well over a year now. What happens if the call for Nationalism fails? What if the youth of Iran continue with what they are already saying, ‘Stop spending money on Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah and Yemen and spend the money on Iran’s people’! Then what? Do the old men in Tehran take the conflict to the next level? At that point, do they have anything to lose? If they do push the crisis to the next level, a level where the existence of the Iranian military is threatened, what happens then? Just how loyal is the leadership of the IRGC? Just how loyal is the leadership of the Iranian military? Will they allow Iran to be broken to the level of Iraq or Syria? It’s far easier to round up a few dozen old fanatical men, than it is to fight your own country as well as an enemy’s military you know you cannot defeat.  How does this all play out? Where does this round of protest lead Iran? You can bet this scenario was table topped over and over again inside DC before The Donald set the game in motion. The US Secretary of State is in Moscow. The objective is to lay out the discussion between Putin and Trump at their pending summit. You just have to wonder what the discussion will be on the topic of Iran. The old men in Tehran are wondering what Putin and Trump will talk about and you can bet they won’t trust anything Moscow tells them after the meeting is over. Things just keep getting worse for the Iranian government, well, at least the current one.

ERDOGAN: RISE TO THE TITLE OF SULTAN AND THEN WHAT?

          So, Egodan the Sultan, pulled it off. He has become the Supreme leader of what he hopes will be the new Ottoman Empire, an Empire that will no longer look to the EU or the West. The new Ottoman Empire will align with the new Russian Empire and the new Chinese Empire, or so the so called “Experts” state. Can Russia and China offset the economic impact of pulling away from the West? Yes. Can the departure of Turkey from NATO cripple an already decaying concept? Yes.  Would both of these events please the Chinese and the Russians? Yes. Do both the Chinese and the Russians have the same intentions for this new Ottoman Empire? Yes. What is that common intention? Why, to manipulate the Ottomans to their advantage of course? Do the Chinese and the Russians have the same end-state for their manipulation? No. Does the new Sultan realize this? Yes. Does the new Sultan have his own manipulative plan for both the Chinese and the Russians? Yes. So what has really happened here?

NATO’s Breakup:

          Russian sales of the S-400 system to Turkey is a very hot topic with the US.  The intent of the Russians is well known. Moscow has been working hard to pull Turkey away from not just the EU, but from NATO.  NATO and the spread of NATO into the old Russian Buffer zone has been the catalyst of just about every event Putin has implemented. The strategic impact of Turkey leaving NATO would be dramatic. The EU’s ability to offset the loss of Turkish forces would be nearly impossible. The very foundation of NATO would be in jeopardy and The Donald’s stance of the EU paying more the bills would surely come back to the forefront of the entire NATO discussion. No one understands this more than DC and Moscow. The problem becomes, the US has openly given in to Turkey to the point no one is confident The Donald will continue to do so. It’s just not in his nature. On top of the issue of The Donald’s nature, the ego of the new Sultan almost guarantees this breakup is coming.

          Turkey is heading in a new direction and that direction is not to the advantage of the West. So what is the West / US / to do? What options are on the table? How does the West respond to the events in Turkey? Well, first off, the idea this event was about to take place was not new. The West has been watching the Sultan push Turkey in a new direction for years. The reality is, the West / US / has been preparing for this day since turkey walked away from the Iraqi Invasion plan in 2003. Does that mean NATO should have been in a position by this time to live without Turkey? Yes. Is it? No. Why? The leadership of the EU members, that’s why. Does the US military need Turkey to execute its missions in the region? No. So, does the US really need NATO? No. So, why is it still there? Politics, and that’s a deplorable answer. For NATO to be disbanded would have meant all of the old Soviet Buffer-zone countries would have been unwilling to even speak to the EU. The EU needed NATO to show Eastern Europe they would have a level of protection if they came in from the cold. The US went along with this plan for two reasons. 1. It allowed the US to keep a military capability near the Russian border. 2. It was good for the Western, Military Industrial Machine. Threats are just what you need when you are in the business of selling arms.  Okay, let’s cut to the chase. Does the US need NATO? No. Does The Donald like the idea of paying most of the bills for NATO? No, and he has said so time and time again. So, what is going to entice The Donald to kiss the Sultan’s hand, just so Turkey will stay in NATO? Pressure from the EU? No. Not unless the EU takes on a much larger share of the bills and even then, it may not happen. Will someone convince The Donald Turkey is going to slide into the Russian/ Chinese camp? They’ve been telling him that since the day he showed up in the White House. So, Turkey is about to end it’s 100-year alliance with the West? They are about to become a new member of the Eurasia? It looks that way. But then again, the Ottomans are about to step into the room with two far more ruthless, far more dangerous, “Partners” than they have aligned themselves with for the past 100 years. Just about the time the new Sultan begins to gloat, he may soon realize, Ottomans will learn to take a knee. The Bear and the Dragon are both hungry and they both like the taste of Kumpir.

BAD BLOOD WITH THE RUSSIANS. WHAT HAPPENED?

         

          So the US’s relations with the Russians has reached a low point not seen for decades? According to the US Democratic party, the Russians are suddenly responsible for just about anything negative in the world. The drumbeat of, “You can’t trust them”…… Putin is the most dangerous man in the world”, seems to go on and on and on. The Russians are even responsible for Hilary not winning the election in 2016. Somehow, the Russians and Tsar Putin have become the Bogyman the Democrats are sworn to defend the US from. To top it all off……………………THE DONALD IS IN ON IT! How can this be? Weren’t the old Soviets everything the Liberals dreamed of? The redistribution of wealth…..free health care………… everybody’s job pays the same…….everyone gets a home and no home can be better than the other guys……………….You know…..Communism. Why did the Soviet Union have to fall and ruin everything for them? Why did Russia have to change?

Nationalism:

          When the Soviet Union fell, the world had a window of opportunity to heal a wound that had nearly destroyed everything on several occasions. When the Russian people finally forced change in their system of government, in a process much less violent than the previous event, the West was not prepared to show the new Russian nation a valid course to success. Instead, opportunist  like George Soros, a man who had a huge grudge against the Russians, a man who made his fortune by leveraging other nation’s currencies, set the Russian banking system up for failure and his profit. Why? The story starts and ends with Hungry and the Soviet Union, but that’s another topic.  So, when the Russians were willing to join the West, the assistance they received was feeble at best. A nation that had only months earlier held the pride of an Empire, suddenly couldn’t adapt. Going backwards was not an option. Going back to the failed dreams of Communism was out of the question, but the Russian people had pride, a pride that was based on over a thousand years of Europe looking down their nose at them. Nationalism had never died in Russia, it had simply been given a new name, Communism. When Communism died, it did not take Nationalism with it. The lost since of pride allowed Nationalism to flourish. The only way the Russians understood how to make money was based on the process the KGB had used for years. The black-market. The so called Russian Mob, was the example and from that example, legitimate businesses were developed. Now, Western corporations, such as oil, were all too willing to make a deal with any Russian agency that appeared to look like a legitimate company. And so………… the foundation of the new Russian Empire was built and it needed a leader……………a leader who understood how the rest of the Western Economic world worked and just how ruthless it could be. George Soros was not an anomaly to the new Russian government. He was just another example of how corrupt this thing called a Free Market Enterprise really was. But, if there was one thing the Russians knew how to be, it was ruthless! It was the foundation of their new leader, a leader who had one dream; to establish the Russian Empire. An Empire not based on the hollow dreams of Communism, but an Empire built on power…..fear……. and most of all………….respect. Putin came to power and his symbol was not what the  Liberals in the US or Europe wanted to see. A Nationalistic leader who would do whatever it took to reach his dream. A leader who supported ruthless aggression if needed and doing it all with a grin on his face. To the Liberals who dreamed of a Utopic State of balanced wealth, Putin was the Devil. To them,  the Conservatives had forced the destruction of the one form of government that allowed everyone to be equal regardless of the cost and even worse, they were responsible for the rise of the one they now feared…………..Putin………The new Tsar of the new Russia.

From Bad to Worse:

          There’s an old saying, “Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, it does”! Well, that is exactly what happened. NATO. NATO and the Western promise not to move into the old Soviet States of Eastern Europe. That promise was broken. That single issue, NATO, became the centerpiece of Western / Russian tension. From that point on, just about every issue between the US and Russia became inflamed.

          There is another old truism, every major event has a defining moment, a moment when change takes place, change that may or may not be anticipated. That moment took place in 2014. It took place as the words from the President of the United States were spoken. “ Russia is a Regional Power that threatens it’s neighbors out of weakness”! Now, just imagine how these words impacted a person like Putin. Just imagine how this foolish statement impacted the man who dreamed of rebuilding the Russian Empire. Just think of how those words sounded to the common citizens on the streets of Moscow. What amount of energy would Putin place into his dream now? What other tools did he have in his possession. This statement burned into the mind of the Nationalist and all of those who supported him.

Consequences:

          The Russians are responsible for Hilary not becoming President. Hilary Clinton, the same person who as Secretary of State openly supported preventing Putin from becoming President in 2018. It was the Russians who decided to disrupt the US elections and it was the Russians who gave the US Donald Trump. These are the delusional thoughts of the Progressive Liberals who now dominate one party of the US’s two party system. Who is responsible for the actions of the Russians? Who is responsible for the flow of immigrants into Europe with the intent of destabilizing every government in the EU? Who is responsible for turning Syria into a Super Power Proxy War? The Liberal Left need only look into the mirror. President Obama cost Hilary Clinton the White House, but that’s not that unexpected given the fact the Obama’s hated the Clintons anyway. Yes, when you say the wrong things at the right time, when you allow Thieves like Soros to make first contact with a wounded Enemy, then the results are almost predictable.  Why has the relationship with Russia deteriorated so far? Idiots, that’s why, but then again, it seems Idiots are popular when it comes to politics.

DOCTOR MIRELES AND AMLO. MEXICO IS ABOUT TO CHANGE.

          Do you know who Doctor Mireles is? If not, you should, unless you don’t care what may be about to happen in Mexico. Who is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador / AMLO? Again, if you are not aware and you live in the Americas, you need to know. How did I come across the topic of the Good Doctor? Well, that is a long story, but one I have enjoyed for several years now. I’ve posted about Doctor Mireles on many occasions and I had in-depth “discussions” about him in my prior life. Is he important to the future of Mexico? Yes. I was one of the few that sounded the alarm bells when the Autodefensa movement began. Pete. You remember those early conversations with the so called “experts”!   

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2018/06/mireles-i-ask-pena-nieto-to-keep-his.html

An Alliance:

          Doctor Mireles openly supports AMLO. Now, that is an alliance that will not go over well in Mexico City. AMLO, the guy known for being left of left, the Mexican Bernie Sanders, but a little more left than Bernie. The guy who is riding a wave of social unrest in Mexico. By the way, not his first time of riding that wave. The guy who is making huge promises to a public that is desperate for change. Is he an outsider to the establishment of the PRI and the PAN? You bet. Is he squeaky clean? Nobody in politics is squeaky clean, but the good news for him is, the Mexican people know this. Is he making promises that will be very difficult to keep? Again, he’s a politician. Just how worried is the Mexican and “other” establishments over his pending win? No one is covering the story in the US and that should give you a clue.

          It’s true, AMLO has followed the Good Doctor from the beginning. Does the Doctor feel some level of commonality with him? Yes. Will it last? That depends. Can AMLO overcome the Billions of dollars the drug business pumps into Mexican government at all levels…… and I do mean all! Can the corruption that is Mexico’s government simply drag AMLO into the trenches and just time him out? Yes. Does AMLO know this? Yes. Does he truly intend to take on the real issue in Mexico’s government, corruption? Well, that’s what he says and that is what he is running on. Just how much “change” is about to take place in Mexico? I will say this, if it’s not enough, AMLO will lose the support of the number one Folk Hero in Mexico…. The Good Doctor.

Words of Warning:

          Doctor Mireles made a stern warning to President Nieto, not one of my favorite people as well, but why? What made the Mireles think Nieto was going to change the outcome of the election? Even more interesting is his insistence the Mexican government is moving its military into position for some event after the election on July 1^st. AMLO is going to win. Would the establishment government in Mexico, one that AMLO is not currently part of, take action against its own people? If such an event was even being considered, the US government would be all over that issue and US media would have picked up on such a huge pending story. So, what is the Good Doctor referring to? Why did he make a direct appeal to the members of the Mexican Military? If any part of this interview was confusing to me, it was this issue. Mireles is a supporter of AMLO, but Mireles is not a follower and his support will be limited if anything starts to smell like compromise. The vision for the future of Mexico is somewhat compatible between these two figures and it wouldn’t surprise me to see AMLO reach out to The Good Doctor soon after election day. The problem comes when AMLO fails to deliver on all the changes. He is already perceived as moving to the “center” and looking more like Brazil’s Da Silva. Moving to the “Center” is not the sign The Good Doctor wants to see. There is no “Center” for Mireles. His dream is to “ change the social reality” of Mexico. These two may get along for now, but AMLO is about to become a President in a nation run by other people’s money. That is not the environment he and The Good Doctor will grow a relationship. The military is on the move according to the guy the common people in Mexico admire. What does that mean and is it even true? Keep your eye on Mexico. Things are changing and I am sure CNN will find a way to say it’s The Donald’s fault! 

SOUTHERN  SYRIA. STICK TO THE SIMPLE VERSION OF THE STORY.

            The attached article by Mona Alami is a well written snapshot of what is about to take place in Southern Syria. It’s complicated to follow and written at a level many will find filled with too much detail. That is why my comments I posted on the site were much more simplistic.

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/06/syria-south-conflict-russia-talks-regime-rebels.html

ColDan • 7 minutes ago

A well written article. If you make this event as simplistic as possible, it becomes easier to understand what is taking place and what is at stake. Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iranian supported units in that area. That is not up for negotiation and the Russians and Americans understand this. Russia's ability to control the actions of Iran are growing more limited by the day. The so called "Alliance" was nothing more than an attempt by both parties to manipulate the other to their advantage. Iran cannot allow Russia to control the fate of Syria. If Iran doesn't agree to the terms the Russians have set with Israel and the US, then Moscow will allow the Iranian and Hezbollah forces to be decimated. This has already happened numerous times as Moscow has attempted to show Tehran the cost of not going along with the plan. Thus, the 2nd meeting between the Russians and the IDF, last week, was a "Deconfliction “process prior to IDF operations. Why has Syria's assault not taken place yet, as Assad stated over a week ago? Because Moscow has given Assad a choice. Follow Tehran or follow Moscow. Finally. the IDF will not wait. No amount of verbal threats or blustering talk from Hezbollah will prevent the IDF from acting as soon as they deem it is time. Moscow has cleared the way for that event.

            As is often the case, the more complex the description of a pending event becomes, the harder it is for people to understand what is truly at stake. So, again, let me be perfectly clear. Nobody is gong to convince Israel they should accept some level of Iranian influence in Southern Lebanon.  Moscow has stated Israel has agreed to the Iranians pulling some 45 miles away, but I’ve not heard that from Israel. What I have heard Israel say was the simplistic warning that no permanent, military or militia location will be tolerated in Syria. How convinced was Moscow this statement is true? Why do you think the second meeting with the IDF took place?

Why is this different?

            Northern Syria is all about the Kurds, the detreating relationship between the West / US / and Turkey, oil and gas, Russia desire to control that market, Moocow’s relationship with DC, Moscow’s attempt to degrade NATO by pulling Turkey away from the West, a mad man who thinks he’s the next Ottoman Sultan and last but not least, Iran’s dreams of expansion. Yep, Northern Syria, if you cut the country just North and South, is far different that Southern Syria. Southern Syria is about one thing. Israel. Iran will not be allowed to threaten Israel from Southern Syria…….period! Israel’s statement about “all of Syria” could be a bargaining point factored into it’s talks with Moscow, but the issue of support operations, besides what Hezbollah has in Lebanon, is a non-starter. Yes, Israel will destroy Syrian forces if needed. That is why Moscow has given Assad a choice and that choice has Tehran furious. Moscow’s words are simplistic, but in another language. “Plata or Plomo” …..Plata being Moscow…Plomo being the IDF. Poor Eye Doctor. It’s been a hard eight years.

NORTH KOREA….. “PEACE IN OUR TIME”….BUT FOR WHOM?

          I’m going to take one more shot at the whole North Korea issue today and then I’m heading back to what matters in the short term. Iran and Israel.

          So, the “deal” is done? Even The Donald said it may or may not work, but he thinks it will. Check! That is what just took place. He placed a check next to that campaign promise. All the talk is over, “will it work or not? Can we trust the North Koreans”? As usual, US politics seem to be more important than finding a true answer to the issue. The internal politics of the US bores me, so I want to press this issue with a true warning. This was a Chess move and the person making the “move” was not from North Korea.

Goals:

          Back to something I have said time and time again. What is the goal of the Chinese? Answer; the reduction of Western / US / military leverage in the region / South China Sea and ultimately, the Pacific. The dream of the new Chinese Empire has been in the making for over fifty years. Xi’s now openly talks of the new day. The day when China controls the world in economic trade. The day when the world follows China’s lead. In the mind of Xi, that day is hear. Who is North Korea in the world of China? At first, they were a gateway for invasion. A gateway they could not allow anyone to hold. Next, they became the Buffer Zone! Then they were formed into what they have remained for over fifty years; a rabid dog on a short leash. A wild animal held in the face of the West to buy time; time for China to build it’s might so that one day, they could stand in front of the West and no longer need the wild dog! Folks; if this deal is truly “done”, then we better be worried far more than most think. If the Dragon no longer needs the little wild dog, then it must believe it’s time has come. The Dragon is ready. Xi is ready.  Power projection is now possible. China can defend or attack. It can do so in ways the rest of the world is not prepared for. Xi says, “ It is our time now”! Does that explain letting the rabid dog be put to sleep?   Did this deal go through? Is it for real? Those that say they hope so need to be very…..very….careful in what they “hope” for!

@ColDan11

NORTH KOREA. THE ONE ON ONE AND IRAN’S SECRETS.

          Let’s take a US, political process check real quick. If Obama had pushed this deal, the right would be screaming. The Donald pushes this deal and the left is screaming! So, that part of this story is worthless. Let’s move on.

          Oh to be a fly on the wall of that one on one. The Donald unvetted, un-coached by the political pundits that drown most Presidents; how did that go? What was said on both sides? Did the Little Fat Guy guard his words? The odds are he didn’t speak to any issue the Donald may have brought up that Xi told him not to speak of. You can bet that room was swept cleaner than anyone can imagine. How about the Little Fat Guy’s body? I wonder if that was “checked”? Something tell me the “ one on one” was listened to ether during the conversation or soon afterword’s. Why did The Donald want this “ one on one”? What was it he wanted to say? “ Look…….you don’t have to be Xi’s puppet. You can be your own man. Step out Youngman. Be a real leader”! If Trump would have said something along those lines, knowing the conversation would get back to Xi, you can bet it would have shown on Kim’s face. It’s highly likely, The Donald told his trusted staff what took place in the one on one. Someone may have even given him some pointers…….. be thinking National Security Adviser or Mr. Netanyahu. Yep. My point to all of this. Did Iran come up in the discussion? Was the one on one have anything to do with Tehran?

Friendships:

          In the world of business, The Donald’s world, friendships take a second seat to “business”. Everyone knows the relationship between Iran and North Korea was based on nuclear weapons development. Just what does the North Korean leader know about Iran’s program? What was The Donald able to pull out of him? How big was the enticement? Did Xi instruct the Little Fat Guy not to speak of Iran? Did he listen? How bad would the US want that information? What would it be willing to give? A comment was made, after the meeting, by The Donald that US forces may someday leave the South Korea! Wait…….What????? I can bet you Japan and the rest of the gang choked on hear that being said. Did anyone take that statement serious? Haven’t I always said that was the ultimate deal the Chinese were looking for? Okay, Trump did say, “not part of this deal”. Ya…. right. Everything is in play, it’s just a matter of placing a timeline on any of it. It seems clear the US place a few huge incentives on the table, but what they are asking for is, in their opinion, worth the gamble. Pay close attention to who was sitting next to The Donald in the official meeting.

          Isolating Iran by working with the G3, US / Russia / China….yep… the G6/7/8/ is old news to the Donald, is underway. China listens up when the US starts hinting at a reduction of forces in the region. Russian listens up when talk of NATO’s future is on the table. Iran has nothing to offer to this process. They don’t even rank with the G45, much less the new G3. Was Iran’s future determined yesterday? Just how worried are the old men in Tehran over what was said in that one on one?  Alliances.  A bond that has always been temporary. Soleimani…..Big Macs my friend….be thinking of Big Macs!