TRUMP TO PUTIN. ‘ IF THIS IS A GAME OF BLUFF……. LET’S SEE WHO BLINKS’!

               First off, let me apologize for the caption attached to the picture I placed on this post, but if I were believe some of the statements I’ve read this morning made by the “experts”, then yep…..Homer may be correct! Is it time to get to your local bomb shelter? Well, even if it was, they haven’t been stocked or maintained for years. Is it time to start stocking up on ammo and dry food….time to get out the Zombie Apocalypse kit? I hope not. Could two headstrong, unbalanced world leaders stumble into a conflict? Well, that is the million dollar question everyone should be asking today. Okay, is this bad? Yes. Is this worse than anything else that has happened in the past fifty years, Cuba? It may be close. Bottomline, do I think the US and the Russians are about to have more than a proxy fight in the Middle East? No! No I do not. Now, having said that, let’s take a look at a few issues that could push this issue ether way.

The Bluff Game:

               It’s a given the Russians compiled a very……very………complex phycological profile of The Donald. They do for any potential world leader. The US and just about every other modern nation does the same thing. Should the Russians have realized The Donald loves to play the Bluff Game? Absolutely. If you want a very current example of his game style you need look no further than the so called Trade War with China. Yes. Yes, the Russians should have anticipated The Donald’s approach. So why did they let it get this far? Why push a guy you know is more than willing to take the game to the limits? Ether Putin didn’t accept the profile his subornments presented to him or he doesn’t care! I would be far more worried about the second option. The reality is, as of today, the Bluff Game is in full swing and where it’s going is based upon the mindset of two very complex, unpredictable men who both have a strong tendency to not listen to their staffs.

We killed Russians:

               Think about Putin. Think about the fact that just a few weeks ago, his staff came to him and informed him the US had killed scores of Russians………Little Green Men mind you, but still “Russians”. When that event happened, I asked the question, “how does this impact the Tsar”? The US upped the game that day and most of us who know how this game is played knew that from the second it started. Then, the IDF lost a aircraft. The IDF was told they could no longer fly over Syria with impunity. That message was not only for the IDF. It was a clear signal, the next phase of the blame game. That signal was to the West / US.

               Hezbollah, who is feeling more embolden with each passing day begins to speak about the price Israel will pay for the events along it’s border…………..the protesters shot…..so called “protestors”. Now mind you, this always makes me tilt my head sideways given the fact Hezbollah is on the other side of a religious war in the region. Does Hezbollah care about Palestinians? No…………Hell no! T-4. An operational base that Iranians  and Russians support Assad from. It’s also a base where Iran supports Hezbollah from. So, what happened next? Yep. The next phase of the Bluff Game! The SA 400 system. It can shoot down anything from anywhere at anytime. It will never miss. It makes all the world’s air forces tremble with fear! Ya….right…..that is why the IDF flew right through it! “ But we got five of the eight missiles fired at T-4”! Well, tell that to the dead………..the Iranian dead by the way and I posted  a few days ago what I still think that was all about. Yes, the Bluff Game continues.

Business as Usual:

               Business as usual right? The West / US / decides to strike, but the back-channel communications allows the Russians to clear their assets out of the area before the missiles show up. That has been the game and that was the game the last time The Donald ordered an attack on Syrian air assets. Oh, but wait, we are playing the Bluff Game now and that means the rules have changed. Now the Russians are openly saying they will shoot down the missiles….well….some of them. Does that mean they didn’t move away from the Assad targets? Are they really going to fire upon US aircraft and US assets? Missiles are much easier to shoot at by the way. There is no citizen in them. But wait. The Bluff Game may be kicking in yet again. The Russian Ambassador to Lebanon stated the sites the missiles came from could be attacked. What? Strike the airfields in Israel, Jordan, Italy, Kuwait, Qatar and perhaps a few other locations? Is the latest Russian message?

Put UP or Shut Up:

               Here is the problem with the Bluff Game. In the end, it comes down to one side walking away and that is typically based on the other side stating, “Put up or shut up”, or a fight breaks out.  Who going to say it? Is it Putin or The Donald that puts his fist up and says those magical words? Do we have a fight or does someone back down? If ever there were two personalities that have no signs of backing down, it’s The Donald and Putin. Is there a level of the Bluff Game left yet? Does something have to happen before the final words are spoken? A very well telegraphed strike is coming. What is hit are most likely the things that cannot move. If we witness air suppression of anti air assets taking place, then we know the strike is right behind it. The SA 400 is the super weapon. Well, I think that might be put to the test! No nation, and I mean no nation can executed air suppression like the US. Tell the US Air Force to strike the Syrian air defense units and those manning them have only a short time to live. Hint, we already took them out once, but on a limited scale. A single strike. The Bluff Game requires this phase to be bigger! Hold on folks. Don’t head for the bunkers just yet, but have a plan. Always have a plan.

ANOTHER CHEMICAL ATTACK AND ANOTHER ATTACK ON T4? IS THIS ONE DIFFERENT?

               The IDF struck T4….again! Assad utilized chemical weapons…. again! Russia says the whole thing didn’t happen. The Donald says there is going to be Hell to pay. The UN….well the UN did what they always do………………talk………………talk………..and then hold another meeting to talk. So, what happened doesn’t seem to be the issue, but the real question is again not stated. Why? Why did the chemical attack take place?

What happened to the message?

 Is the use of chemical weapons becoming common place? Did the Tsar approve the attack? Would Assad use such weapons without Russian approval? Could the Iranians have talked Assad into such an act behind the back of the Tsar? Could the Tsar afford to come out against the act even if the Iranians pulled this one off? Did anyone notice the change in the stance of the Russians? For the last few weeks, the message has been, “The Anti Syrian forces were preparing to launch a chemical attack with the intent of the Syrian government being held responsible. Why was this line not continued after this latest attack? Why was the response, “we see no evidence of chemical weapons”? Why didn’t the Russians blame the “Rebels / Terrorist”? They spent weeks building this image and then when the attack takes place, the Russians didn’t pull the trigger on the propaganda platform they spent so much time developing. What happened? The Russians seem upset more than usual. If they knew the attack was coming, and they should have, then why was the response off message? Perhaps someone should look to Tehran?

T4:  

               Just how unannounced was this latest attack on T4? Does anyone really think the Russian assets in theater could not detect the aircraft launch from Israel….. the release of subsonic weapons diving down to map of the Earth level? Just who did the Russians warn of the inbound attack? The only stated casualties seem to be Iranian. Is there a reason? If Iranian assets scheduled to go to Hezbollah were struck once again, did the Russians just let it happen? Yes, the story goes five of the eight weapons were intercepted by Syrian Air Defense, but that is to be expected. Every nation has always inflated their response to an attack. The fact of the matter is, the Russians ether knew the attack was inbound or they did not. If they did and Iranians died, is that a message in itself? If they didn’t, boy oh boy, the vulnerability of their defensive systems better keep them up at night.

The Worst Case Scenario :

               I would truly hope this next statement is not true, but in the world of analysis, all possibilities, that are logical, must be reviewed. The Tsar did know the attack was going to take place. The Tsar did approve of the attack. The Tsar no longer sees the utilization of chemical weapons as a “Bridge too Far”. The Russians warned the Israelis today. In fact, the warning may have been perceived more along the lines of a threat. Last month they lost F16. That was a message. Israel knows all too well Russia has assets on T4. If the waring was given with the loss of the IDF aircraft, then how does Moscow read the message the IDF sent with the strike on T4? How does Moscow interpret the statement / tweet / from The Donald? Yes the phone calls are taking place. Yes there is far more to this story than the press and others know about. Where is this going? In and out. That was The Donald’s message while Putin was trying to take the world stage over the Syrian issue. “We are leaving Syria…not wait…. We are staying” … and the Tsar looked like a fool! Did that set the stage for the next round of “I dare you”? Seldom are events between adversaries not related. Is there a link here? As my friend always says, “ To understand the first move…..you have to wait for the second”! We are way past the second move. The slippery path is primed. If the US strikes Syrian targets and I fully except it will happen………..perhaps by the time I post this, then the reaction from Moscow will be the topic of all the Talking Heads. They better get their makeup on. I bet the networks will be calling them in the next 24 hrs.

A PERSIAN A RUSSIAN AND A OTTOMAN WALK INTO A BAR!

               I know this is a lead in line for about a thousand jokes, but the idea of these three groups holding hands and driving towards a “Common goal” is about as laughable as you can get. Let me do a quick sanity check and then I can get down to the real issue here. One.

The Tsar doesn’t care what the old men in Tehran want. When the right time comes, he will slit their throats and leave them in the ash pile of Persian history.

The Persians loathe the Tsar and his nation of Infidels. Their weapons and their money make this false alliance necessary, but when the time comes, the Persians will do everything in their power to provide the Tsar with his own version of the Afghanistan retreat across the bridge. Buying time. That is what they are doing. Buying time.

The Leader of the Ottomans! Well, this mentally unbalanced nutcase doesn’t really like anyone. Somehow, he has a vision of the whole world being part of the new Ottoman Empire. Honestly, this guy is more dangerous than the Little Fat Guy in North Korea. Look out France! This guy doesn’t have a screw loose; he’s got parts flying off all over the place. Does he realize the Tsar’s hand is extended for the sole purpose of destroying NATO? Probably. Does he think he can lead the Tsar on and come out on top of this deceptive game? Absolutely. Like I said………a complete nut job!

               So, there you have it. A simplistic breakdown of the three powers shown holding hands this week. Now, if that is not entertaining enough, we have to toss in a key ingredient to this event. The Donald!  Just as this so called conference was about to take place, “WE ARE LEAVING AND SOON”! that was the message blasting out of the White House directly to the meeting room in Ankara. Did that create confusion? The Ottoman Sultan’s eyes must have rolled back in his head. The Persian scratched his beard and the Tsar just grinned. Confusion? Oh, you bet that statement caused more than confusion, perhaps even in Paris and Riyadh. One this is for sure. The Donald did exactly what he intended. He sucked the air right of out that meeting hall. Then….then…. just as the threesome were whispering to their staff, demanding to know what they had found out, The Donald strikes again. “ WE ARE NOT LEAVING….AT LEAST NOT YET….MAYBE….. MORE TO COME”! Look, love him or hate him, you have to admit, The Donald at times seems crazy like a Fox. The wind came out of this meeting as if a balloon had popped. What was the final statement from the meeting? Who in the region even paid attention? The US is leaving Syria…………..no ……………wait…………….they are not leaving Syria…………well………..maybe. In the meantime, Russian, Iranian and Turkish Intelligence all report the same thing. The US is fortifying locations in Northern Syria. The French along with “others” are moving in to the same positions. The Ottoman Sultan slaps his servants as he tries to think of something intelligent to say to his state-controlled media. The Puppet sent by the old man in Tehran sits and wonders what he shouldn’t say. As all of this is going on, the Tsar stands there with his signature reaction. The Cheshire Cat grin. Now, about this possible meeting between Putin and The Donald at the White House! Oh Donald, you are an interesting balance to the Cat and he has to love that grin! 

SALMAN AND PRIORITIES

               Israel has a right to their land. Is that such a controversial statement for the future King? Some in the region would say yes, but the truth of the matter is, the Palestinian issue is nothing more than a tool for those who wish to continue the violence in the region. For years now, I’ve made the comment that the Palestinians are the Gypsies of the Middle East. Only those groups that wish to promote violence in the region stoke the fires of anger. Do they do this for the sake of the Palestinian people? No and most of the Palestinians realize that truth. Does Iran truly care about the future of Palestine? No. Does Egodan? No. Who understands this better than the Saudis? Nobody. If you make the future King chose between shoring up his list of Allies against Iran and the fate of the Palestinian issue, his answer is just what you heard…………..for now. He knows the issue of the Palestinian people can be addressed once the greater threats in the region are taken care of. Distraction. Trying to solve the Palestinian issue now is nothing more than a distraction. A Distraction stoked by the very power the future King is determined to defeat. In short. Priorities. That is what the future King is concentrating on. An unofficial alliance with Israel is far more rewarding than standing in for the Palestinian people. Besides, something far more important happened in the past 24hrs. Something the future King will not take lightly.

Attacking the Life Blood:  

               If there is one event in the ongoing proxy war between Saudi and Iran that will set the world on edge, it would be an attack or even an attempted attack in the Straits or near Yemen.; an attack Saudi would automatically place the blame on Tehran. The Yemen cost just off of Hudaydah is the area where just such an event took place today. A Saudi flagged tanker was damaged and if not for a nearby Naval ship, the outcome could have been much worse. What this the fist event of it’s kind since the conflict in Yemen began? Perhaps not, but the timing makes this attack more important than anything like it in the past.  I’ve not seen a response from the future King, but I can assure you one is coming. So, stack this attack on top of the increased missile attacks on Saudi over the past two weeks, and it’s not too difficult to see where Saudi’s real priorities stand. What was used against the ship? How was it attacked? Those are issues that will come out shortly, but it’s obvious the tension is rising between the two nations. Missiles landing inside Saudi Arabia is one thing, but openly targeting the life blood of the nation, that is a tactic that will not go unanswered. The situation between these two nations is growing more and more dangerous and the future King is in a full court press to rally those that will side with the Kingdom if and when the time comes. I might as well take that word, “Might” back. The time is coming, and it may be sooner than we think. Extremally advanced weapons are in the hands of both sides, weapons that don’t miss. Once an even like this takes place again, the repercussions may be more than any of us were worried about. In the end, the statement on the status of Israel and the Palestinian people is little more than background noise. One has to wonder who the Saudis will blame if Hamas continues to provoke the IDF? “Weapons Tight”. I hope the Saudi Navy understands the procedure.

THE MURDER OF SKRIPAL.  IS THE WEST MISSING THE MESSAGE?

               Yes! The Russians did it. It’s time to stop running around with your hair on fire and asked the far more important question. Why? Why would Putin make such a bold statement and why now? The world is littered with old, worn out Spies. Double Agents, Double, betraying Agents…………Agents that nobody on any side trusted. Some live out their lives and some do not. What was it that Mr. Skripal was responsible for that lead Putin to authorizing weaponized nerve agents to be used in a foreign land? Wait? Is that issue really that unusual? Does everyone forget the Cold War? Hasn’t just about every liberal media network in the world written a half-baked story about the “new Cold War”? Poison. How often did that “agent” get used in the East and West Germany? Has anyone covering this hysteria bothered to talk to any living Stasi member? Collateral damage? Is that the issue here?  Others were injured in this assassination? Just what was it that Mr. Skripal did that made the Russians break out the old KGB playbook? By the way, where did Mr. Putin come from? Was this issue really about Mr. Skripal or is there something else taking place? Why did the world react the way it has?

The New Putin:

               Time and time again,  I’ve addressed the issue of the Tsar and his Master Plan for the Russian Empire. In the past few years, I’ve stressed the concept of that Master Plan reaching Its end-state. I’ve always believed that after the 2018 election, the “New Putin” would step to the world stage. Perhaps he started taking those steps a few days early? It’s not like the election was in doubt. Yes, the action of the Russians with this case were bold, but in all likelihood, “bold” is the approach the Russians are going to take from now on. Yes, acts like this took place in the Cold War, but it was foolish for the rest of the world to believe we had collectively moved passed taking such actions. Why this one old spy? Who knows. Why now? That may be a much easier answer. The New Putin is here. The plan is in the final stage and what happens next is the most important question for all of us.

KIM. THE LITTLE FAT MAN TAKES HIS CHOO CHOO TO VISIT THE DRAGON.

Okay, before I even get started, let me just say I really intended on addressing an issue I believe is far more important than The Little Fat Man’s train ride, but I was talked into this post and as such……….here we go!

First off, the mental picture of this guy taking his private Choo Choo to China is just to irresistible to pass up….hence the cartoon at the top. Now, down to business. Can you imagine the US intelligence agencies notifying the President’s National Security Advisor the Little Fat Guy is on the move….by of all things…….. a train? Talk about an opportunity to execute a life changing event for North Korea! The problem is, his crazy Aunt is still alive and some think, she would love to take over, or so she thinks. I’m not sure how the Chinese would have reacted to such an event, but I’m also not sure The Donald and his new team would care. Invade North Korea and China would go to war. Blow up a Choo Choo with the Little Fat Guy in it and the Chinese may just enact their “replacement” plan a little early.  You can bet the idea crossed somebody’s desk.

Why:

               The Talking Heads / “Experts” are all abuzz with the question. “Why”? Why is the Choo Choo back in China? Is the pain in the ass from North Korea, my hunch how the Dragon now sees him, going for guidance on his meeting with The Donald? Does he really listen to the Chinese anymore and if so, to what level? Was he asked to come or was he ordered to appear? When he showed up, did he talk or was he told to listen? Is his declared meeting with The Donald his idea or was it his Master’s? One things for sure, the suspense is killing those who watch this show. It’s just too bad it’s not killing the North Korean Leader. Of course, he’s not home yet! Guidance this far in advance of the sit down is noteworthy, but perhaps the pre event sit down with South Korea is the topic?  Driving a wedge between the US and South Korea is valid theory. A theory the Dragon would completely support. A North Korean / South Korean “agreement” at some level, without the US’s input, would spell real trouble for the US and the US knows it. Yes, South Korea has their version of Obama right now, but the South Korean military is not about to let an idealistic dreamer destroy the South’s ability to defend itself. In the end, it’s very difficult to predict why this trip has taken place, but one thing is for sure the end state is not to create an environment that is conducive to the US. All the rumors of a Trade War between China and the US will have an impact on this meeting and you can bet on that fact. The Dragon is still developing an annex to it’s Master Plan given the arrival of a President like Trump was not anticipated. The Choo Choo is in China and the reason has some on pins and needles. On the ride back, the Little Fat Guy may want to have his body double in the train. You never know when Bolton’s influence is going to truly kick in! I wonder what “ Choo Choo” means in Mandarin?  

BOLTON STEPS BACK ONTO THE WORLD STAGE, BUT HOOKERS RULE THE DAY!

Scandal tabloid news. That’s what the US population seems to care about. A Billionaire that had low moral standards at some point in his or her life? SHOCKER! A US Politician with a murky past? Another SHOCKER!   How much should be said about Hookergate? Well, not enough to even finish this train of thought. Oh….by the way…. Ask the Kennedys or the Clintons how real American Political Juggernauts deal with women who know too much! Now, on to the real issues at hand.

               John Bolton is coming back into the limelight. Now that’s news! Hardliner? He’s the posterchild for hardliners, but then again, the new CIA Director is no pushover. Out with the Oil Tycoon who knew the Russians better than just about anyone else in DC. In with the guy who has no problem telling the world, “you may not like the US…..you may even hate the US, but you damn well better fear the US”! Is that a tactic that will work in 2018? Is it too late for the US to shake its fist at it’s enemies? Will Bolton’s style help the US’s standing or push it closer to confrontation? Bolton fits The Donald’s style; speak loudly and wave a HUGE stick! Will that style work in in conjunction with the new Secretary of State, a DoS still flush with Progressive Liberals? Reminder, the US Department of State’s job is not to execute conflicts, but to avoid them and in the worst case, warn that one may be coming. In the mode of crafting warnings for the President to task the US DoS to hand out, no one is better suited for that job than John Bolton. Right now, given the status of events in many parts of the world, painting a picture of what may take place is exactly what the US DoS should be doing. So, out with the guy who knows how to smoke 100-dollar cigars and sip 300-dollar Bourbon. Out with a guy who knows warfare and the horrors of such as the President’s National Security Advisor and in with the guys who show you their bouncers waiting just outside the door. A deliberate move? You bet!  Is it the right move? I’m guessing an event coming up in less than two months will show us the future.

Iranian Nuclear Deal:

               If The Donald wanted to tip his hand on the Iranian nuclear agreement, his level of clarity was absolute when he tweeted about John Bolton. Oh, how I would have loved to have been a genetically altered fly, the ones that have receivers on them I bet, inside the Oldman’s office in Tehran. “ John Bolton is the new US National Security Advisor”! For the Iranian government, if anything would have sent them to pray, that would have been it. Mad Dog at one end of the sword….John Bolton at the other! I wonder if the phone call to Moscow, placed by Soleimani, not the Old Man, took more than an hour? I wonder if the call was placed by Moscow? “Hello….Soleimani my friend?  You need to pack”! Here is one thing General Soleimani understands. John Bolton, like Mad Dog, is not the kind of guy who you give elaborate threats to. Boasting about what you may do to the US because Bolton could lead the way in the US withdrawing from the pathetic nuclear deal is not going to keep you out of you bomb shelter. Moscow not going to enter a conflict with the US over the issue of Iran and John Bolton understands that. Yes Soleimani, there’s a new Sherriff in town for the US DoS and his name is one you know. A message not well received in Tehran and one they have to contemplate very…..very….. carefully. By the way, if I could be that little spy fly again, I would have loved to seen Lavrov when someone told him as well. Better yet, being in the room when the two of them meet. I bet you they have already been on the phone! Lets just hope both were sober. Just when you thought things were interesting enough. John Bolton! By the way, there was a party in the IDF HQ.