CHINA AND LATIN AMERICA. NEW “SILK ROADS” OR A DRAGON’S LAIR?

http://www.atimes.com/article/chinas-new-silk-roads-reach-latin-america/

               I’ve said this before and I will say it again, I often enjoy reading the articles by Pepe Escobar. The one I’ve placed a link to is one of his better commentaries on the continued progress of the Dragon. I will admit I take a much more ominous approach to the actions of China than he does, but then again, he and I have very different backgrounds when it come to the subject of the Dragon.

               The BRIC and the ‘New Silk Road’, two topics that no one in DC should take lightly when it comes to Latin America. Several years ago, I had a conversation with an individual in the intelligence community on the topic of the BRIC. It was a new concept then and people were investigating its capabilities and structure in an attempt to understand why the alliance was taking place. Most were puzzled that China and India would seem to hold hands on a vast economic venture. Some of us, me, thought it was nothing more than another very advanced weapon the Chinese were developing for future use. In the end, the so called, “Experts” came to the conclusion the BRIC was a fad and the whole concept would just fade away under the weight of the World Bank. The World Banking Organization. Now that was and is a weapon system the Dragon understood. It’s fairly clear to me now, the BRIC was never intended to become anything more than the foundation for the real goal; the New Silk Road concept / Belt and Roads / you take your pick.

New Roads to where?

               The New Silk Road, a topic I’ve written about before, will provide improved trade and will make the nations that take part richer! When you get right down to it, that’s the sale’s pitch. Easy money, just sign here and don’t bother with the fine print! “The rising tide lifts all the boats”. John F. Kennedy. Interesting quote from a family that made its fortune as smugglers during the US prohibition. So, how does message come across in Latin America? Can the Dragon really counter the US by taking large hunks of the Monroe Doctrine off the table? Do any of the people in Latin America even know what the Monroe Doctrine is? Look, China can put as much lipstick on the Pig called “ The New Silk Road” as they want. The reality is, a large enough group in Latin America see exactly what the Dragon is up to. It’s not about lifting the boats of Latin America, it’s about countering the US in the backyard called the Monroe Doctrine. China’s not out to build boats, it’s out to manipulate the region. Yes, the same theory behind the Monroe Doctrine. I never said I was a fan of that US policy to begin with. So where does this new road lead the people of Latin America?

A story the people remember:

               I remember reading an article about the Chines opening an rather large business, I think a copper mine, in Brazil. At first, the government and the works were ecstatic. The jobs! It was all about the jobs. Why, the boats will be floating higher in no time! Then, then the Chinese set the rules. No days off, no sick leave, no family time, no vacation and the idea of only working 40 hours a week was insulting. Management? Well, management was to be exclusively for Chinese. In short, the great news turned out to be the same old song; exploitation! Yep, most of those boats sunk! When the locals and even some of the government officials began to challenge what rules the Chinese had placed on the business adventure, the Chinese had only one answer. ‘If you don’t like it, we will move the operation to another country in the area. I suppose that’s better than the old days of sending in the Pinkertons, but the Dragon’s message was clear. “It’s our money and it’s our rules”

How to counter:

               One of the greatest challenges the US will have with this Chinese initiative in Latin America is history. That Monroe Doctrine thing. How much did that really help the Latin American boats? How much of it was about the US staking it’s claim on everything to it’s South? If you know even the recent history, the last thirty or forty years, between Latin America and the US, it should not surprise you several nations in the region may be more than willing to enter the Dragon’s lair and the truth is, it won’t take much to snap the US’s head back into a position to look over it’s shoulder. Just how sensitive is the US to this potential Dragon’s lair to the South? Well, when the Soviets were attempting to do the same as the Dragon, disrupt the US’s backyard, we suddenly had “Operatives” all over the region. In the end, who is more frightening to the people of Latin America. The Gringos and their Monroe Doctrine or the Dragon and all of its promised boats? We shall see.

DID THE RUSSIANS LOSE “LITTLE GREEN MEN” IN A BATTLE LAST WEEK?

               It seems the rumors are more than just rumors now. One thing is for sure, US and Russian intelligence knows exactly who was killed last week and how. It appears the releasable answer is going to be, they were Russian Contractors; you now…………..like the “Little Green Men” tactic in the Ukraine. Does this approach prevent to some extent the shocking reality of US forces fighting Russian forces? Yes. Why else would the “Little Green Men” concept have been invented? Is there a rather murky relationship between regular military forces and so-called contractors? Just watch the movie about the events in Bengasi and you will have your answer. If the story holds true, then over 200 Russians, most likely Special Forces, were killed by the US airstrikes last week. Does anyone truly believe Putin sees these deaths as anything other than losses at the hands of the US and its Allies? Does the title of “Contractor / Little Green men”, really keep this issue from becoming worse? No. The answer is no. Do the events of last week have anything to do with what took place with the Israelis in Syria just a few days later? Now then, that is where this story may get very interesting.

Wait for the other shoe to drop!

I’ve used this before, but an old friend, FBI type, use to tell me, “Sometimes you have to wait for the next move to understand the first one”! Let’s assume this is the case. To me, the question becomes, who initiated the first move? Does ether side really know for sure? On the US side, the answer may sound something like this, “Well, the forces of Assad, supported by the Russians, fired on positions they knew our forces were in the area of. We had no choice but to defend ourselves. That’s our message, we will defend ourselves”! Now, on the Russian / Syria side, the story probably goes like this.  “Terrorist were operating in that area, on Syrian land, and our actions were against those Terrorist groups. If some nation was there in support of those Terrorist, then that is a choice they made, and they must live with”! Now, here is where the rule of proportionality comes into play. If the Russians lost over 200 Russian citizens in just one attack by the US, how do they answer? What message do they send to DC? Could it be the message was, ‘We can make the region a complete nightmare for everyone if you continue to be involved in the Syrian Civil War’.

The IDF as a version of “Little Green Men”.

               Syria is a proxy war, and everyone knows this. Who will determine the future of the region, a region vital to the heart of the Russian economy, fuel. Up until last week, it was a given both the Russians and the West understood the dangers of direct conflict in Syria. Was the downing of the Israeli fighter the response to what took place just a few days earlier? I can see the logic of that theory if someone states it. Little Green Men are proxy fighters. Israel is a modified version of a proxy for the US. The problem seems to be, the transparency of the proxy fight is quickly becoming irrelevant. One last level of ambiguous fighting may be left. Iran vs. Israel. The problem with that play is what happens when one of the two starts to lose? I hope I was right with my last post. I hope the event that took place between the Iranians and Israel was based upon the Persians showing the Russians they are not the only ones determining the future of Syria. But, if I’m wrong and the Little Green Men scenario  is true, then the ultimate outcome could be far worse than 200 Russians killed.

SYRIA / IRAN / ISRAEL / RUSSIA. WHAT TOOK PLACE?

It’s obvious that something took place a few days ago that caught many key players by surprise. What happened has been written and talked about in great detail. The most important question is still out there. Why? Why did it take place? What changed? Israel has been flying strike missions into Syria for the past several years, even after the Russian air defense units showed up. Have Israeli jets been locked in on in the past? Yes. Have they been fired at? Yes, but without proper “support”. So, an Iranian drone, one modeled after the one they captured from the US, flies into Israeli airspace and gets shot down. New news? No. It’s happened before. As the story goes, after this airspace violation, the IDF decides to strike the command center where the drone was controlled from. Unusual? Have they struck the command center for the previous drones? Where the other drones Iranian controlled or more simpler versions flown from Gaza; that’s a key element here. Did the Israelis understand the Iranian controlled drone, one they identified as far more advanced than previous models, was being missioned from a site on the base named T4, a base heavily populated with Russian operations and thus, defended by Russian ADA units. Was this something new? Had the Israelis flown through Russian controlled air defense sites in the past? Yes!  Had Netanyahu warned the Russians Israel would not tolerate Iranian / Hezbollah / increased pressure on Israel’s border with Syria? Yes. Did the Russians believe him? Yes. So, back to the initial question. Why did this event take place?

Who is sending what message?

               In an attempt to find a possible explanation to what took place, let me go back to a topic I’ve harped on for several years now. Are the Persians thankful for the Russian’s actions in Syria? No! Do the Persians trust the Russians? No. Is the love affair between the Russians and the Persians real? Well, let’s just refer to it as a marriage of convenience. Now, all last month, the rumors once again began to fly about on how the Russians were coming to an agreement with the US and “others” on the future of Syria. Those that didn’t belong there would have to leave, and the transition of power would take place afterword. Same old story with the same old dead end results, with the exception this time of the Ottomans. The Russian master plan for Syria would have resulted in the Kurds further grinding out what would become Kurdistan. Kurdistan and the Kurds. The number one reason the Turks reacted to the Civil War in Syria in the fist place. Somehow, this time around, when the Sultan caught on to the end game the Russians were attempting to develop for Syria, the threat of Kurdistan became unacceptable. That was a very good indication the Turks were not truly part of the problem solving formula designed in Moscow. The consequences of this revitalized rumor was “Operation Olive Branch”. By the way, I love the concept of a combat operation having the title of “Olive Branch”! That must have been a joke to someone. So that was it? The Russians starting pushing a plan for finding an end-state in Syria and that plan was one that had not been acceptable to a major player in the region? Was that the only “No” vote? Nope, of course not. 

               Iran’s message reaction to the Russian planning, like the Turks, has not changed. The future of Iran is tied to the future of Syria and Iraq. The concept of a Kurdistan may not be as volatile to the Persians, but it is a common thread between them and the Ottomans and Syria and Iraq. The Turks may have answered by launching Operation Olive Branch, but the Iranians has continued their response as well. What could possibly impact the Russian vision for the region and even the Russians themselves, more then to push a confrontation between Israel? Just how upset would the Russians become if Iran shaped a scenario where Israel would strike targets in Syria defended or even controlled by Russia. What would happen if Iran instigated the IDF into responding in a way that forced the Russians to respond? In reality, it’s been going on for over two years now. Iran’s movement of critical weapons to Hezbollah, a Hezbollah that is doing everything it can to prepare for the next war in Israel, has placed Russia in a position it does not like. Continues air attacks inside Syria, a Syria that the Russians have clamed they control the skies of. How many times have people said, “ How can the IDF strike in Syria the way they do and the Russians don’t respond”? Who has truly set this stage? Yes. In my opinion, it’s the Iranians and the Russians along with Israel know it. Why else would Netanyahu travel to Moscow last month? Iran is forcing the issue of Russia’s influence over the future of Syria.

               Was Operation Olive Branch the perfect excuse for the IDF to step up their game inside Syria? Yes. Did the Iranians understand that is exactly what they needed? Yes. Do the Russians know they are being played by the Iranians? Yes. Is there going to be a conflict between Russia and Israel? No! How will the Russians deal with the actions of the Persians? Let me just make this comment. You don’t want to be on the receiving end of Mr. Putin’s anger! If Iran wishes to upset the Russians by forcing a conflict with Israel, they need to be very…..very….careful. If Iranian units find the Russians distancing themselves from them on the ground in Syria, they better be able to take the hint on what will happen next.

 IRAN AND HEZBOLLAH AND CASE OF MONKEY SEE….MONKEY DO!

The Turks are now coming up on a month into their operation to neutralize any idea of an independent Kurdish state along the Turkish border and if you don’t believe that is what is taking place, then you should probably spend your time reading something else. I’m not going to spend time addressing how this operation is going, but I am going to ask one simple question. Did the Ottoman’s invasion of Syria provide the cover for Israel to move against Hezbollah forces in Syria? If it’s acceptable for, Iran, Turkey, Russia and the US to carve out a slice of Syrian soil for the sake of neutralizing a potential enemy, then why not Israel? Yes, I fully understand the IDF has been attacking targets in Syria, but an actual ground operation has been out of the question. So, is it out of the question now? If Iran’s proxy military, Hezbollah, has been allowed to establish itself inside of Syria, close to the Israeli border, does Israel not hold the right to neutralize this threat? Someone tell me again why the Turks pushed into Syria? Here is an even more important question. Do the Israelis plan on executing just such an event?

Warnings to those that matter:

Netanyahu holds a meeting with Putin. As soon as that meeting is over, the Russians dispatch a high-level team to Israel…………. Quickly.  Rumor has it, and it’s a good rumor, the message given by Israel to Russia was blunt. “We will not accept Hezbollah or Iranian forces to threaten Israel from its border with Syria”! This message was also delivered to DC. Then Netanyahu made it clear to the rest of the world in an open statement. Again, someone remind what the excuse was for Turkey’s movement into Syria? Did anyone take these statements seriously? Let me answer that this way. When was the last time you witnessed a high-level team be dispatched within hours of a meeting between two leaders? Was the Russian reaction to Israel’s message noteworthy? You bet it was. Had there been a rumor of Russian striking a deal over the Syrian mess that would lead to Iranian and other forces leaving Syria? Yes. Was Tehran consulted on this process? You can bet they were not, unless the statement itself was disingenuous.

Iran sends its own message:

               Let me go backwards for a minute. We must remember the goals of the Persians in Syria and the region are not the goals of the Russians. The relationship between the Russians and the Iranians is based upon a matter of convenience. The Russians are convenient to the Persians, but only for so long. The Persians are convenient to the Russians, but only until the greater issue of Eastern Europe is settled. For the Russians, in the end, the Middle East will continue to be what it has been for almost 100 years, a source of fuel. But, this time the control of this area will come from Moscow, not DC. There use to be a war plan for fighting the Soviet Union in the Middle East for just this reason, but that is a discussion for another day.

               Iran gets a vote. That is the message when Hezbollah Commanders are seen with Iranian leadership along the Syrian border with Israel. Do the Russians approve or disapprove of such events? Does anyone in Tehran truly care what the Russians think? Yes, the courtship is as it has always been, on shaky ground. Iran has no intention of leaving Syria’s future to anyone else other than Iran. So, the question becomes, is Iran willing to risk the future of their own nation for the sake of influence in Syria? Just how did the Tehran interpret the communications between Israel and Russia? Did Netanyahu travel to see the Tsar to judge his true intentions in Syria? Is Russia telling the truth when they state all foreign parties will leave Syria?  Is Tehran paying attention? Was this statement by Russia just another complicated twist of the truth? Just in the past two days, stores have been circulating detailing the inspection of positions inside of Syria along the Israeli border; Inspections by high ranking Iranian officials and Hezbollah Commanders. The Middle East is a part of our world where bluffs and hidden meanings are the norm. Trust me when I say, Israel in not bluffing! Mobilization of the IDF is a very distinguishable event. Be watching closely for this noticeable sign, but don’t count on it. Surprise is the key to victory in 21^st Century warfare. 

THE RUMOR OF A “BLOODY NOSE” FOR NORTH KOREA:

I’m Shifting away from the Middle East to cover the other slice of the world that needs to be addressed. I’ve read a great deal about this “bloody nose” rumor and I will admit the rumor seems to be growing. So, the question becomes, is the rumor growing because the events required to make such operation take place are actually coming together, or is the rumor being spread, effectively I might add, to place even further pressure on the Chinese. Yes, I have not come off my theory of the Chinese having a plan to deal with the little fat guy when the time comes. The problem remains, when does China become convinced that time is here? When do the Chinese truly believe the US is going to pull the trigger? How do they judge the difference between a bluff and true pending action? Is it the movement of military hardware? What hardware would they need to see being put into place to change their mind? Wouldn’t they have to know the tactical requirements of the operation to properly evaluate what is moving? How do they truly judge between a bluff and a pending event? That is the formulary China must hope they can come up with. Given the possible outcomes of this so called, “bloody nose”, how sure must China be as they attempt to gauge the intentions of the US? Just how worried is the Dragon? It seems The Donald is getting the hang of this World Leader stuff. The Donald’s poker face is truly beginning to take shape.

Bloody Nose and the unforeseen partners:

Let’s move onto the issue of this “bloody nose” rumor. If it’s more than a rumor and there really is a plan for a tactical strike, and I would be you there is such a contingency plan, then what are the possible results? Now, there is a topic every so called “expert” is out to make money on as quick as they can. Can a limited strike on North Korea, a nation controlled by a madman, not have repercussions on the civilian population? Can the damage actually be held to a level most people are willing to accept? Can such an event take place on China’s border without the Dragon losing face globally? Would they just sit back and let it happen? If you have read my post for the past few years, then you know what I’m about to say. Yep, back to one of my favorite games.

What If?

What if Bloody Nose had a partner that no one was aware of? What if Bloody Nose had a role for the Dragon? I’ve said it for years now, but I will say it again and again. The Chinese have a plan for dealing with unstable leadership in North Korea. What if the US strikes the nuclear facilities in North Korea not with the intention of making them unusable for years to come, but for the purpose of neutralizing the immediate threat they pose, and this takes place as the Chinese move to replace the North Korean government? Sound outrageous? Not really, at least not to me. Let’s look at a few hard facts that both sides of this problem completely understand.

1.      The ultimate goal of China is to have the US’s excuse for having large military capabilities in the region nullified. Why would the US leave its forces in a unified Korea? How much pressure could China place on the US for wishing to do so? After the North Korean issue is resolved, why would China not strive to solve, peacefully, the issues in the South China Seas? Instead of threating war, just spend money to the point that nations like Japan and the Philippines can’t resist the profit line. Oh, and if you think that is not an approach for the Chinese, then you’ve not done your homework with the One Belt One Road initiative.  Simply put, remove the reason for US forces to be on the Korean Peninsula and at the same time, toss as much money as you can at the other nations in the region.

2.      From the US standpoint, especially the military leadership, how appealing is a plan that doesn’t call for the same mistakes made in Iraq and Afghanistan? A plan that doesn’t require an occupation force or even an offensive ground force. A plan that lets the US utilize the its existing forces inside South Korea to defend South Korea only? A plan that calls for Chinese ground units to move into North Korea, and doing so after the nuclear sights are struck and key North Korean Generals, who are own the Chinese payroll, make their move as well? Yes. A US strike with a simultaneous Chinese manipulated Coup?

The Danger with the Coup idea:

               As outlandish as this concept of mine may sound, stranger things have happened in this world. Yes, there are dangers to this idea. For one thing, the US military, more specifically the US Army, may not agree. I once remember a time when the US Army was absolutely adamant the war in Iraq, this time around ,could not be won with just the Air Force. Why, everyone who ever studied modern military theory knew you cannot defeat your enemy strictly from the sky. Pay no attention to that event called Desert Storm. How in the world could the nation justify a large, modern, standing Army if it’s wars were won from the air? I mean, how could the Army convince Congress to spend money on them?  Why, they might go the way of the Navy’s Battleship theory? Am I being sarcastic here? No. Not really! An Army of occupation is “old think”. Strike your enemy. Neutralize their ability to do you harm and then be prepared to strike them again if needed. That will be the future of the 21^st century warfare. That will be the economic reality of the West. So, you see, in the end, making a Coup plan with a potential rival just doesn’t make good investment sense for those who make BILLIONS on developing and selling military hardware. Yes, there is a danger to finding a smart way to deal with North Korea. The Chinese may end up having a stronger position on the issue of US military presence in the region.  On top of that, how in the world are the companies that depend on military hardware sales going to make money if someone finds a way to defeat a threat without dozens of Divisions of very expensive ground forces. Lives? Yes you may save lives with this new way of thinking, but all those corporate giants know full well brave young men and women will march into battle if called upon to do so. There is a new way for nations to defend themselves and marching patriotic people into a meatgrinder is not the way. A Bloody Nose sounds terrifying for one reason. Those that warn of such an event look at warfare with “old think”! 

THE OTTOMANS MOVE INTO SYRIA.

               Not the first time the Turks have pushed forces into Syria, but this time is different. Now, from day one of the Syrian Civil War I’ve been talking about the one true issue the Turks could not lose sight of. The creation of some version of a territory named, Kurdistan. It was the universal worry for Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq. It was the one issue they all had in common. None of them wanted to see a slice of land carved out for the Kurds that would lead the world to using the title of “Kurdistan”. The Ottomans, The Persians and the Arabs may not have the same vision of the future, but they do share the nightmare of a Kurdistan. So, what happened? Why now? What made Egodan drive his forces into Northern Syria in a much large operation than in the past?

The Manipulator:

               If you saw this word and the Tsar didn’t come to mind, then you need to keep studying what is taking place in the region. Okay, now, let me answer the question of, “why now”. What has been the goal of the Tsar from day one of the Russian involvement in the Syrian Civil War? Europe, more specifically, Eastern Europe. Yes, the Middle Eastern fuel scenario is very important to the Russians and its true economic engine, fuel. But, the old “buffer zone” of Eastern Europe is the issue that keeps the lights on in Moscow at night.  Eastern European countries, countries that belonged inside the old Soviet Block and their relationship with NATO, that is THE… issue. That has always been the issue and that will be the issue until the scenario is no longer on the Tsar’s plate. If the West intends to destabilize Russia, something the Russians truly believe, then the counter is and has been to destabilize a region that is important to the West. Mass migrations into Europe. The stoking of a religious Civil War, a Civil War that can involve over a BILLION people across the world, these are just two issues the Tsar is deeply involved in; knowing that both of them have an end-state of endangering the day to day peace throughout the globe. If Mother Russia is not to know safety and peace, then no other nation will, especially those that are responsible for the danger to Russia. So how does the Tsar’s pressure on the West lead to a nutcase like Egodan to move such a large force into Syria? How does the Tsar manipulate two NATO nations into a possible confrontation?

NATO vs NATO:

               If there is one strategic goal the Tsar has had in mind as he attempts to counter the Western advancement on Mother Russia, it’s the idea of damaging the NATO alliance. Now, from day one, both Egodan and the Tsar have set a goal of manipulating the each other. First it was the defiant Ottomans shooting down a Russian fighter. Then it was the great kiss and make up that came a year later. Both men looking to advance their own dreams and both men attempting to use the other to achieve those dreams. From the Tsar’s standpoint, he had the golden opportunity to create a huge fracture in the concept of NATO. He fully understood the unstable relationship that had developed between the US and Turkey. The plan was set in Moscow and the intent was clearly exposed. If Russia could drive a wedge between the US and Turkey, then the result would be a less effective NATO. Sounds simplistic, but the plan to exploit this rift was very……….very complex and the EU’s reluctance to accept Turkey as a partner only added fuel to the fire. Moscow played every card almost perfectly. The Migration event that has led to the destabilization of Europe was seen as an action by Egodan and the Turkish government. In fact, it was the Russian military’s arrival in the Syrian Civil War that started the uncontrollable exodus. It was Egodan who realized that by allowing those fleeing the conflict to enter Europe, he could force the EU to come back to the table of acceptance and thus spur the Turkish economy, and economy that was weak at best. But, in the end, it was and has been the Tsar who has been manipulating the Sultan of Turkey, often without the Sultan even realizing what was taking place. As complex as this whole story actually is, the simple fact of the matter is, Turkish forces are moving on ground held by US backed fighters, Terrorist, take your pick! A major NATO partner is threating / warning  / the leader of the NATO alliance. Who stands to gain from this? Take one guess. Look. I have talked about this time and time again. If you want to know why the Russians are so intertwined in the Middle East, look to Poland, look to Ukraine and you will have your answer. Will the forces of one NATO nation fire upon the forces of another NATO nation? That is a dream come true for the Tsar!   Off in the distance, off in the shadows another set of eyes are quietly watching. The Dragon looks on from its cave! 

IRAN.  WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT IS TAKING PLACE? WHAT IS TAKING PLACE?

               Took two weeks off again, but boy have I been watching the events in Iran. In my last post, just look the post prior to this one, I raised the question of what is taking place in Iran. Why was the IRGC supporting a form a Persian Nationalism, a form that doesn’t mention Islamic Fundamentalism at all? Is the picture becoming clearer now? To quote a good friend, “if you want to know the reason behind one move, you need to wait for the next one”. Persian Nationalism? If that is the goal, the goal of the IRGC, then what else needs to happen, I mean, other than music videos? How do you make a segment of the population you need to influence moving your desired direction? How do you put energy into the change process? Yep. Protest. Protest over a unified issue or issues. Issues that have a common impact on those you need to change. Issues that strike at the core of day to day living. Food, pay, prices! Get a proportion of a population upset over those topics and you are well on your way to change. So is that it? Is this deepening crisis in Iran all part of the IRGC’s grand plan? Is this new drive towards Persian Nationalism the tool needed to remove the latest version of yet another tyrannical government in Iran? Simply put. Is the current crisis fueled by the IRGC?

The Law:

               If you have been following my post for the past several years, you know how much stock I put into the concept of, “The Law of Unintended Consequences”. Persian Nationalism. That is the tool that will bring about stability in Iran. That is how the IRGC and the Old Men in power, planned to bring the youth of Iran back under their fold. That is how they would get the population to stop pulling away from Tehran. Create nationalistic pride and then convince the population that the preverbal “outside threat” is wanting to tear down this new found Persian pride! It sounds feasible to a guy like me. It’s a theory that could be argued over a few drinks and any typical Department of State Cocktail Dinner. The problem is, perhaps it’s not going according to plan? Perhaps it’s not going anywhere near as planned?

               The Iranian leadership designed some process for one reason, to stay in power and to keep control of their population. A plan can only be developed after key assumptions have been made. So, what if the key assumption on just how bad things were becoming on the streets of Iran were extremely underestimated? What if building the theme of Persian Nationalism was not the tool of control, but the fuel that has caused the fire? Are the streets of Iran’s cities beginning to fill with those who took the concept of Persian Pride to mean something very different than what the designers anticipated? Is Persian Pride turning into, Persian anger? “Where did the money go”? That is a question the Old Men in Tehran did not anticipate. Iran’s government needed something to change before the issues of 2009 appeared again. The Old Men who feared the Arab Spring back in 2011 never stopped worrying about that same Tunisian Virus, yes, I still call it that. They were the founders of the backfire they created in Syria. A backfire that was designed to prevent the flames of the Arab Spring from reaching Iran. They were paranoid then and they were period now; so paranoid that they developed the Persian Nationalism project without truly understanding the potential risk that plan might bring to their doorsteps. Syria was a backfire to prevent the true forest fire. Could it be the Persian Nationalism plan is the backfire that has created it’s own forest fire? It’s not the first time that has happened. Firefighters will tell you that is always the danger of using “backfires”!

What is taking place in Iran could soon rival what took place in 2009, but this is not 2009 in Saudi. This is not 2009 in the US and it’s not 2009 in Moscow.

Yep. This is something new and it’s more dangerous that most realize.

You can bet I will be on this one for the foreseeable future.