IRAN.  WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WHAT IS TAKING PLACE? WHAT IS TAKING PLACE?

               Took two weeks off again, but boy have I been watching the events in Iran. In my last post, just look the post prior to this one, I raised the question of what is taking place in Iran. Why was the IRGC supporting a form a Persian Nationalism, a form that doesn’t mention Islamic Fundamentalism at all? Is the picture becoming clearer now? To quote a good friend, “if you want to know the reason behind one move, you need to wait for the next one”. Persian Nationalism? If that is the goal, the goal of the IRGC, then what else needs to happen, I mean, other than music videos? How do you make a segment of the population you need to influence moving your desired direction? How do you put energy into the change process? Yep. Protest. Protest over a unified issue or issues. Issues that have a common impact on those you need to change. Issues that strike at the core of day to day living. Food, pay, prices! Get a proportion of a population upset over those topics and you are well on your way to change. So is that it? Is this deepening crisis in Iran all part of the IRGC’s grand plan? Is this new drive towards Persian Nationalism the tool needed to remove the latest version of yet another tyrannical government in Iran? Simply put. Is the current crisis fueled by the IRGC?

The Law:

               If you have been following my post for the past several years, you know how much stock I put into the concept of, “The Law of Unintended Consequences”. Persian Nationalism. That is the tool that will bring about stability in Iran. That is how the IRGC and the Old Men in power, planned to bring the youth of Iran back under their fold. That is how they would get the population to stop pulling away from Tehran. Create nationalistic pride and then convince the population that the preverbal “outside threat” is wanting to tear down this new found Persian pride! It sounds feasible to a guy like me. It’s a theory that could be argued over a few drinks and any typical Department of State Cocktail Dinner. The problem is, perhaps it’s not going according to plan? Perhaps it’s not going anywhere near as planned?

               The Iranian leadership designed some process for one reason, to stay in power and to keep control of their population. A plan can only be developed after key assumptions have been made. So, what if the key assumption on just how bad things were becoming on the streets of Iran were extremely underestimated? What if building the theme of Persian Nationalism was not the tool of control, but the fuel that has caused the fire? Are the streets of Iran’s cities beginning to fill with those who took the concept of Persian Pride to mean something very different than what the designers anticipated? Is Persian Pride turning into, Persian anger? “Where did the money go”? That is a question the Old Men in Tehran did not anticipate. Iran’s government needed something to change before the issues of 2009 appeared again. The Old Men who feared the Arab Spring back in 2011 never stopped worrying about that same Tunisian Virus, yes, I still call it that. They were the founders of the backfire they created in Syria. A backfire that was designed to prevent the flames of the Arab Spring from reaching Iran. They were paranoid then and they were period now; so paranoid that they developed the Persian Nationalism project without truly understanding the potential risk that plan might bring to their doorsteps. Syria was a backfire to prevent the true forest fire. Could it be the Persian Nationalism plan is the backfire that has created it’s own forest fire? It’s not the first time that has happened. Firefighters will tell you that is always the danger of using “backfires”!

What is taking place in Iran could soon rival what took place in 2009, but this is not 2009 in Saudi. This is not 2009 in the US and it’s not 2009 in Moscow.

Yep. This is something new and it’s more dangerous that most realize.

You can bet I will be on this one for the foreseeable future. 

PERSIAN NATIONALISM. IS THIS WHERE IRAN IS HEADING?

First off, hats off to Narges Bajoghli for putting this story together. It’s refreshing to see professional opinions, backed by solid investigative research. Dr. Bajoghi is an Academic and we all know my feelings towards most academics who write about the Middle East. Not this time. Dr. Bajoghli nailed this one and I hope someone is taking what she is saying seriously.  A professionally researched story! That’s a concept the US media has forgotten. 

https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/iran-new-nationalism-religion-politics-trump-saudi-isis.html

Now, over the course of this blog, I think I have addressed the issue of possible Persian Nationalism more than once. So, when I came across Dr. B’s story, it convinced me my hunch from a few years ago was correct. You can’t get a nation that’s average age is under 30 to follow fat old men who insist on you not listening to music, not dancing, not drinking and not surfing the internet. The problem for Iran has been, that is exactly what the old men of the so called “Revolution” still think. It’s not working and it’s not working at an every increasing rate. The fat old men may not want to believe it, but it appears “others” do!

THE IRGC:

By the way, if you have to ask, “What is the IRGC”, then you need to go read some other blog site. Sorry, but going backwards is not my style. Alright. If the fat old men in Tehran can’t see the handwriting on the wall, even after the events of 2009, then what? Answer? The IRGC. From day one I argued with my prior workmates that Qasem Soleimani is Nationalist, not a devout follower of a religious cult. Are the Shia a “cult”? Well, according to my Sunni friends in the region, they are worse than a cult, so for now, that’s the label I’ll give them. By the way, I would love to hear Soleimani’s opinion of those old men when nobody is around!

The concept of finding a way to keep the population of Iran loyal to the government, whomever is running it, is not an issue unique to the Persians. Every nation does this, but it’s only the smart ones that find a way to make it work. Music videos placed on the internet? Yep, that is thinking out of the box and the IRGC is on to something. Do the old men agree with the tactic? Well, here comes a very…..very interesting question and one that Dr. B may not have had time to contemplate. Are they? Are the old men really running the country? Hassan Rouhani is a puppet, for now, who is loyal to the bidding of Khamenei. Khamenei is what? Well, he is old, sick and completely out of touch. I mean, let’s face it, the old man can’t keep a lid on Ahmadinejad even after threatening him with prison. Why? Why is the guy who believes in magic carpets still permitted to run amuck in Iran?  How much day to day authority does Khamenei and his band of religious nutcases truly have? Who is the Luca Brasi for Khamenei? Yep. Soleimani. What’s the history of betrayal by the closest confidants in the Mafia? Who’s making the drive to nationalize the youth of Iran? Who is making music videos based on Persian history and not even mentioning the Islamic movement?

Survival:

To the leadership of the IRGC, and trust me, this is Soleimani, what is more important? The survival of the nation of Iran or the future of a concept of government and religion that suppresses the human spirit? What better tool to help hold a nation together than the vision of past glory? A glory that was not based on crushing individual freedoms, although the Greeks may disagree.

Iran is and has been in real trouble demographically. Yes, the average age issue will level out over time as long as they don’t enter into yet another protracted war. The Arab population of Iran, Persian Iran, is growing and if anyone thinks the Arabs don’t remember the Persians, then they need to go focus on some other part of the world. Iran’s future is in doubt, at least that is what the IRGC believes and the number one mission of the IRGC is to secure the future of Iran and if that means moving away from the so called “revolution” then that is exactly what they will do.

Out of the woods:

Is that it? Are we seeing the light at the end of the tunnel on the issue of Iran? I mean, if the IRGC is successful in changing the future of Iran’s youth, doesn’t that mean this whole, Shia / Persian / Sunni  Arab mess might go away? Might Iran become the old Iran again; the Iran of a Secular government?  Remember this old adage. “Be careful what you ask for”! When was the last time a nation went wacky Nationalistic and stayed peaceful? Good old Soleimani. I’ve said it before and I will say it again. Perhaps he has visions of becoming the next God Father!

NORTH KOREA AND CHINESE TIPS ON NUCLEAR WAR

With all the hysteria taking place today over the pending US announcement on the Israeli capital, it’s now wonder a story, like the one I am going to address, is overlooked. By the way, as I stated two days ago, the future King of Saudi could care less about the US decision. Good read his reaction, statements, on line and you will see. It’s about Iran……It’s all about Iran…..everyday….every issue.

Okay. So a state-run newspaper in northeastern China published an article called, “common sense” and this common sense topic is all about how to prepare and respond to the impacts of a nuclear war. Hello? Was that a news story not worthy of coverage in the West? Well, not if you are a low grade, tabloid level political hack machine like most networks in the US. So why did DEBKA pick up on this story? Why did they feel it was at least worthy of placing on their minor events scrolling along the side of their daily page website? I will tell you why. Because the Israelis understand the threat and signs of war. This was not some low level reporters trying to catch the eye of his editor. This was a state run, state controlled newspaper, like all newspapers in China.  Every story published is for a reason. Every word placed in that story is reviewed to insure it meets the needs of the Chinese government. If we understand that, then we have to ask the question, why?

Trends:

Several months ago, the Western media was alert enough to pick up on the movement of Chinese units moving into the area near the North Korean border. Speculation was a hot topic for a few days and then, as always, the news switch to the next big event. Flash forward to December 6^th and the release of this common sense article. Is it just a precautionary measure provided by the cradle to grave government of China? Are the Chinese that worried about such an event in North Korea that they felt compelled to publish guidance? Just how good is the Chinese intelligence when it comes to knowing what is going on inside North Korea? I will tell you this, it’s far better than anything the West has going. Could the Chinese believe a nuclear event is a very real possibility? As a matter of fact, they have even said so in the open press.

So a message, guidance, was provided to the Chinese people who live near the North Korean border. Notice the guidance was not given to the nation as a whole. Does that mean China understands that no matter what takes place in North Korea, it will not lead to a wider conflict or It will not lead to a nuclear war between the US and China? This is precisely the type of analytical work the intelligence agencies work on. Did they see this small bit of news coming out of the region? You bet they did. Is it just another slice of data that helps them predict the future actions in the region? Absolutely.

Yes, on a day when all the talk will be about the capital of Israel, and that is what Jerusalem is to anyone who lives in the world of reality, it will be easy to overlook this small little story from a Chinese Newspaper near the North Korean border. But sometimes, it’s the small things that should be noticed!  

SALEH SAW THE LIGHT……BUT IT TURNED OUT TO BE A “FLASH”.

Well, I’ve been off for the past few weeks catching up on other writing “issues”, but I’m back now.

The topic of the day? Mr. Saleh. It seems Mr. Saleh had yet another change of heart a few days ago. A change of heart as to who should continue to line his pockets! Now, this guy has been out to accomplish one thing from the day he stepped into the spotlight. Saleh for Saleh’s sake. That’s it. It’s as simple as that! Flip flop should have been his nickname, but it seems this time, he flipped right on top of a bomb. Not his fist time by the way! Why did Saleh change his mind? Look to the future King of Saudi for your answer. Did the Iranian backed forces in Yemen blow him up? Yep. Could the Saudi’s have anticipated that event taking place? Yep. What will it change? Nothing. He had called for his followers to “rise up” against the Iranian backed forces, but that speech was nothing more than a way to get paid. How many of his followers jumped ship to fight the forces they had been supported by? You can probably count them on one had. Has his death prolonged the fighting in Yemen? Most likely. His supporters won’t be happy with his manner of death along with his body being displayed.

Speaking of Yemen:

If we step back from the events of Saleh’s death to review what is taking place in the region, we might see a few far more interesting trends. Has Iran become embolden with their advances? Yes. Has the future King of Saudi become more determined to stop these advancements? Yes.  Does this lead to tensions in the region becoming worse? Yes. Is anyone surprised by any of this? No! So, what has changed? What has taken place that could lead anyone to believe things may get better or things may get worse? Here is a hint. What “relationship” seems to be, “coming out of the closet”? If you guessed Saudi and Israel, you are only partially correct. You need to add Egypt into your answer. You need to see the closing of ranks between the Russians and the Turks. You need to see how difficult the task has become for the Russians to hold hands with the Turks and the Iranians at the same time. The short and simple answer is, the sides in the Middle East are continuing to attempt to solidify and I want to stress the word, attempt. Does any partner on either side of the partnerships truly trust any of the others? Of course not. The question becomes, what do you look for? What is the next big event that might push the region to the next level?

The US Embassy in Israel:

The topic is back on the table. Why now? Well, for one thing it’s time for the US to update the legal wavier on the issue. The Donald doesn’t want to do it, but the pressure to do so is high. On top of that rather delicate issue is the rumor The Donald is going to announce the US’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel! Contentious issues? Oh ya. Will it pull apart the pro-Western camp? Nope. The target is Iran / the Persians / and all other issue can be addressed at some point down the road. Period. The future King of Saudi is not going to jeopardize his unofficial, undeclared, collation for the sake of the Palestinians, at least not right now. Much large games are underway. Lebanon. Iraq. Syria and Yemen. Those are the primary points of effort, not the Palestinians.

The timing is right. If the US wants to push the issue of Embassies and Capitals, now is the time to do so. The question becomes why? Why make waves with those issues now? The answer takes us right back to the primary topic. Iran! Israel is being told to sit on their hands while the Iranians and Hezbollah creap closer and closer to the “redline”. “Steady Boys…. Steady….Wait to you see the white of their eyes”! That seems to be the message. The undeclared coalition need a little more time before things may get very interesting. They may also allow the undeclared partner to start the event………….Israel!  But. In the meantime, perhaps the US feels it’s time to toss the Israelis a bone. Perhaps it takes a  little open support to keep the whole game plan moving forward.

Look. Let’s face it. The region is a complete mess and is only going to get worse before it has a chance of getting better. Is there a war in the future? Most likely. Is it in the near future? That is the scary question and the answer is even more frightening. As for Salah. It appears the flip-flop Leader saw the light. Unfortunately for him, that light was the flash of a rather large bomb! 

SAUDI ARABIA’S “PURGE” AND HARIRI….. WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

I read one story line this weekend that stated, “The week that shook the Middle East”! Well, that may be a far more profound statement then even the author realized. I read through several “Deep Dives” on what was taking place and most of them seemed to be nothing more than the typical “look how smart I am” diatribes banged out on a keyboard just in time to make a few dollars. So, let’s go. Let’s get real…..real simple on this topic and see if we can come up with a prediction for the region.

Prince Salman:

Was the Saudi event a purge?

Yes!

Was it based on the corruption of those taken into custody?

Yes, but then again, if that was the only criteria for being picked up this weekend, the numbers would have been much………MUCH……….higher!

Was the future King moving on those who are opposed to him?

Yes! Not only opposed to him, but willing to support action against him.

Is he done?

Nope!

Do the ones he may come after yet know they are on the “list”?

Yep!

Are they still in Saudi?

I bet not.

Will it work and will this purge solidify the future King’s position?

 Maybe, maybe not, but the odds just went way up!

Will this purge be seen as a positive event to the people of Saudi?

It will to the youth, and Saudi is a very young country. That is the base Salman is playing to.

 Is the West / US / happy with what happened?

Oh…Hell no!

Is the White House okay with what happened?

Most likely. Those that were rounded up had close ties to “old” relationships. New, far more dynamic events have been taking place for the past year and most of them are driven from Moscow.

Prime Minister Hariri:

Did Hezbollah try to kill Hariri last week?

It looks that way? Remember, they blew up his Father in 2005.

Did Hezbollah take this action on their own?

Hezbollah doesn’t take any action on their own. Tehran calls every shot the Hezbollah takes, no kidding….every shot!

 Why? Why kill Hariri?

Easy. They don’t like him and they don’t trust him.

Why?

 Well there is this thing called the Sunni / Shia divide and he is on the wrong side of the divide.

 Why now, why try to kill him now and wouldn’t that look way too obvious?

 Obvious? Yes….it would be obvious, but when has obvious ever been a stumbling block for Iran or Hezbollah?

 So they would kill him just because he is the wrong side of the faith and they don’t like him?

That’s part of it, but there is also the issue of everything seems to be going Iran’s way right now. Confidence often leads to carelessness and the Persians are becoming very….very careless. Solidifying their hold on Iraq, Syria and Lebanon is their goal; with or without the Russian’s help!

How do the Russians fit into all of this?

The Tsar was in Iran last week. To the Iranians, that like having the Godfather say he is coming to “Visit” you! Visit’s that usually lead to a kiss on the lips and then you sleep with the fishes! He showed up had them sign a deal to basically work the majority of their oil and gas deals through his companies and then he left.

Does he care about the future of Syria….Lebanon….Iraq?

 Only if they are trying to sell oil or gas or if fits his goal of making the West trade for events in Eastern Europe.

Does that lead the Iranians to believe they are free to do what they want with those three nations?

In a nutshell…yes!

The “Link between the Two Events:

So, who is against the Persian takeover of Iraq, Lebanon and Syria?

You guessed it, the future King of Saudi Arabia.

What do the ambitions of Iran have to do with the “purge” in Saudi last weekend?

Saudi, the leadership of the Sunnis. Iran, the leadership of the Shia!  Think about it. In addition, in order to prepare for your next phase of your Master Plan, you must solidify your hold on power. That thought process holds true for both sides.

Is Saudi going to openly confront Iran?

It’s becoming entirely possible.  

Will the West and the Russians allow that to happen?

It’s even more possible nether the US or the Russians can truly prevent it. Lots of very sophisticated weapons in the hands of both groups and the animosity continues to grow. Launch authority does not reside in DC or Moscow. Remember, there was the issue of a ballistic missile being fired towards the Saudi Capital this weekend. How do you think that went over with Prince Salman?

Okay, this story could be told in a far more academic way. It will be explained by those that love to make other nation’s State Departments say, “wow”, that was very well written. He or she is obviously an “expert” on the region. Let them. The story is not an issue of sophistication. It’s a story of danger……real danger! 

A PHONE CALL BETWEEN PUTIN AND NETANYAHU:

The Russian Defense Minister goes to Israel? Unusual? Given the events in Syria and Iraq right now,? yes. A conversation takes place and afterwards, shortly afterwards, and that’s the key here, Netanyahu places a phone call to the Tsar? What did the Israelis hear that made their Boss call Shoigu’s Boss and do so so quickly? What point did Netanyahu wish to get clarification on, or what statements did he want to make the Tsar understood?

There will “never” be Iranian military facilities in Syria:

 Once again, Israel made this statement perfectly clear and they did so within the past week. Anyone who questions this stance is fooling themselves. So, is that it? Is the Tsar fooling himself? Has he made some commitment to allowing the Persians an overt, permanent stance in Syria? Even if he hasn’t, has he turned a blind eye to such an event becoming reality? If his answer is something along the lines of,“Russia doesn’t make decision for the government of Syria”…..or….  “ Although we do not think Iranian basing in Syria is a positive event for the region, we are not the controllers of Assad”! You get the point. Can the Tsar get away with playing stupid? Unfortunately, the answer is yes! If this is the issue. If the Russian Defense Minister, who is always nothing more than a messenger, came to Israel to inform them of some level of Iranian permanent plan for Syria, then playing stupid is a disastrous decision.

Putin’s Miscalculation:

From day one, the design of the Tsar’s plan for the Middle East has been twofold. One, manipulate  the fuel industry in such a way that the impact to Russia’s economic engine, fuel, is not adversely impacted. Two, manipulate the events in the region as a bargaining chip for his goals in Eastern Europe. If Russia is threatened by NATO expansion in Eastern Europe, then Russia will destabilize other regions, vital to the West. All of this has one fatal flaw and it’s a flaw we have to wonder if the Tsar understands the significance. To Putin, the Middle East is an economic threat and a pawn all at the same time. Manipulating what takes place there is a complex game he has proven to be an expert in. But, and it’s a very dangerous but; does he understand the gravity of the “game” when it comes to Israel? Does he comprehend the depth of emotions behind the Sunni / Shia struggle? He hears from all of them, but does he truly understand just how dangerous the game really is becoming? Has he miscalculated? Here is an even more ominous question? Does he care? The Russian Defense Minister come to Israel with a message. A message that is part of a grand scheme to manipulate the region. That message is so unacceptable to Israel that a phone call is place almost immediately to Moscow. What Shoigu did was set something in motion. Was it the action his Boss anticipated? If so, then the conversation was anticipated. Iran is an issue of National Survival to Israel. If you don’t believe the Russians understand that, then asked yourself a question. Why do the most advanced Air Defense networks in the region, ones controlled by the Russians, allow the IDF to continue to strike targets in Syria?  Something happened in that meeting and something was said on that phone call to Moscow? I bet Tehran would love to know! 

THE BATTLE FOR KIRKUK. ANOTHER CHAPTER FROM DUNE! 

The long awaited battle for Kirkuk is underway. Anyone who halfway pays attention to the region has always understood what was going to happen. Kurdistan, or at least the attempt at Kurdistan. The dream of the Kurds. Kurds who just might be able to have some level of unity, unity long enough to attempt to carve out their dream. A dream the Turks, Iranians and Assad will do anything to prevent. 

 Fact check. What are the Kurds? Sunni. What are the forces now attacking Kirkuk? Yep. Shia.          Shia with Iranian units in support. Another fact check. What side are the Russians on? If you said    both, you can continue. What side is the US on, if you said both, you may continue to continue!     Wait…..what? The US is on the side of the Shia / Iranians? Well, not exactly, but they are                supporting the Iraqi government and only the true idiots in DC don’t understand Iran calls the     ball in Iraq. So, yes, you get credit if you said “both”.

Just how bad can this get?

               A few days ago, yet another ground movement was conducted by the Turks into Syria. Does anyone think this had anything to do with anything other than the Kurds? If so, stop. Go back to what you were doing. You just failed the course. Okay, back to the topic. So, are the Turks working with the Iranians? Well, not exactly. The common denominator is the quest to not see a Kurdistan continue to develop. How that takes place is not an issue derived from any form of “joint” operation, especially between Shia and Sunni units. Yes…. I know… there were and in some case are “Joint” Sunni / Shia operations in Iraq. But, before you believe some foolish concept such as a common goal, take a deeper look at the amount of money spent on this “joint” project. Yes, they are paid to get along and yes, they will both continue to betray each other when the time comes.

               How bad can the battle of Kirkuk get? Well, if you know anything about the Kurds, you know the Iraqi / Iranian forces better have their share of body bags ready to go. Yes, the Iraqi / Iranian / Hezbollah forces will make “gains” in the first actions inside of Kirkuk. The Kurds will give up areas they don’t intend on defending and allow the Iraqi units to spread out in an urban environment. Then the fighting will come and if you think the ISIS units held out for an extended period of time, pay attention to how the Kurds respond. This is a fighting force that has had years to think about how to defend Kirkuk. So, think of Kirkuk as Stalingrad and the Iraqi’s are the Germans. Think in terms of being over extended and you may get a glimpse of the days and weeks ahead for Kirkuk.

Where are the Russians?

               Russia. The supporter of Assad. Russia. The supporter of Iran. Are we going to see Russian air support for the battle of Kirkuk? No! Was a push on Kirkuk even in the playbook for the Russians? Nope! Do the Russians support the Kurds? Go back to the top of this post! So, what is going on here? How is the battle for Kirkuk going to play out in Moscow? Has the Tsar placed a call to Tehran yet? Does Tehran care if the Tsar calls? Let’s go back to a discussion I’ve had on several occasions. What is the relationship between the Russians and Iran? Does the Tsar get Birthday cards from Tehran? I bet not. Do the Russians see the Persians as tool in the great quest of Mother Russia? Yes. Do the Persians see themselves as a Puppet on a string from Moscow? No. Do they think the rest of the world sees them that way? Yes. Does that upset them? What do you think? Do the Persians feel as if the Russians pushed them to the sidelines on the future of Syria? Yes. Does that upset them? Oh you bet! So does Tehran “trust” Moscow? Trust? What a strange word when it comes to international diplomacy. Finally, are the Iranians going to allow the future of Iraq to be decided by anyone but Iran? No! So, where do the Russians come into play on the issue of the Kurds and Kirkuk? Have you ever read the book Dune? “The Spice must flow”! Who is in charge of the “Spice” is irrelevant. In Moscow, one truism is undeniable. If properly played, there is money to be made in a conflict and if you are really good, you make money from both sides!

The US? Where does it stand?

               As of this morning, the same old story hold true on the so called news networks. What did Trump say or do in the past 24hrs that everyone can argue about? Yes, the US is so lost in it’s own politics, that it can’t see the world that is revolving around it. Even when The Donald does attempt to address something about the rest of the world, the first reaction is only based upon what he said and not what the event itself actually is. Lost at Sea. That is where the US is. As a matter of fact, the US Foreign Policy Ship has been lost at sea so long, it has to be about out of gas! Funny thing about ships that are presumed “lost”. The people that were expecting the cargo, simply accept the fact it’s not showing up! It so bad now, I even saw an article last week on CNN that was encouraging Iran to “ Call the US’s Bluff on the nuclear development “deal”. Oh, by the way. Do you know why that disaster is called a “deal”? Well, I will tell you. Such an agreement, by US Constitutional law is supposed to be worked as a “Treaty” not a “Deal”! Obama knew he couldn’t get what he caved in on through Congress so he called it a “Deal” and thus, avoided Congress. Ego’s….politics is all about egos! Back on track here! The US “supports” the Kurds right? Well, there is another one of those funny words. “Supports”. Back in the 90s we “supported” the Kurds and that lead them to be gassed! Is the US going to prevent Kirkuk from becoming a battle zone? No. Has the US once again tried to work a deal with Moscow on the issue of Kirkuk? You can bet both sides have talked about what was coming. Did the US ask the Russians if the Iranians were part of the discussion? Nope! Did the US care? Nope. Does the future of the Kurds rest in the hands of the US? No. Who does hold the future for the Kurds? Are the truly on their own? The “Spice”….be thinking in terms of the “Spice”!

Did the Iranians force this Battle?

Short answer. Yes! What is the only thing the Iranians could promise the Tsar that might keep him from striking yet another deal with the US?  Yep. It must flow!  But wait a minute! What about the Ottomans? Has anyone worked this deal with the Turks? Who actually controls the lines from Kirkuk, that is until the location of the lines falls into the hands of someone new? So, what’s in it for them? Does the fall of Kirkuk prevent the future of Kurdistan? For the most part, yes! Is that enough to let the events in Kirkuk unfold without Turk influence? Yep.

               Yes the whole region remains a mess. Yes, the events in Kirkuk are going to have a resounding impacts on the Iraqi government, the Iranian government and the Turks. Yes, the Kurds are once again pawns in the larger game of world powers. Yes, the Russians will continue to make decisions not based on the best interest of Iran or Turkey. Let me end by saying this. The only way a fighting force like Peshmerga gives up Kirkuk is if something else much larger is going on. Iraqi flags driving up and down the roads of Kirkuk is a dangerous sign. Shia vs Sunni. If anyone has taken this reality out of the context for this event, they are foolish. Does the Guild understand the depth of this conflict?