THE DEATH OF LT. GENERAL ASAPOV. HOW AND WHAT COULD IT MEAN?

A few days ago a Russian three-star general was killed in Syria. His role was that of, “an advisor”! Now, I spent a large part of my career, “advising”, but I can’t remember a three-star general, in the field, as an advisor. Yes, Russians do do things differently and the idea of a three-star general being in the forward danger zone of a conflict is not new to the Russians. I’m with the story is, no one really believes that General Asapov was, “an advisor”! General Asapov was most likely what most three-star generals are, a commander of troops, Russian Troops! So, why was this matter? The story itself didn’t even show up in the Western media.

The notification:

In Moscow, the notification had been made to Putin along with the details of how the event took place. How does a three-star general get killed in action by indirect fire? How was it that the, “enemy” could target a location effectively that has a Russian three-star general operating? Short version, “how did they find him”? These are probably just a few of the questions Russian president asked of his military staff. Contrary to Western media coverage, loss of a Russian three-star general is a big deal! It’s an event the Russian president will not simply turned his back to.

Definitions of the word “Enemy”:

Daesh? What is the Russian definition of a member of Daesh? In case you have forgotten, it’s anyone who’s fighting the Syrian government. The Russians know full well that their definition encompasses any and all factions supported by the West, namely the United States. Though, think about it for a minute. When someone walked in the room and advised present Putin he had lost a three-star general, what were his thoughts? The countless discussions and unofficial agreements between the US and the Russians, on the topic of Syria, are so numerous and so convoluted, it is difficult to believe that any hard fast understanding of roles and responsibilities could prevent what took place. The intelligence required to locate and target the Russian three-star general would be a difficult task. Yes, it is happened time and time again with Iranian senior military leaders, but I would be willing to bet the Russians were suspect of the intelligence provided to make those attacks happen as well. If you really want to cut to the chase, the Russian president may be sitting in Moscow wondering how it is the Americans would be so bold as to target a Russian three-star general in the field? If that hypothesis sounds ridiculous to you, that I would submit that your knowledge of Putin’s mindset is not as good as you might think it is. The fact of the matter is, the Russians lost a three-star general in Syria! How they lost him and who was responsible for questions they would to get the facts for what they will make assumptions! Communications between the US and the Russians must be taking this is not his name general place as I write this. At least I hope so! 

KURDISH BID OF “INDEPENDENCE” AND THE SUM OF ALL FEARS!

From day one of the Arab Spring, many feared one outcome. Kurdistan! I addressed this over six years ago and I’ve never come off center on the topic. The Kurds! No group has manipulated more than the Kurds. Loyal to the West before and during Desert Shield and Storm. Loyalty that lead to them being gassed. When ISIS was on the march in Iraq, what one group stood in their way? Who held the line? Yep, the Kurds! Have the Kurdish groups placed bombs in New York? Have they hijacked aircraft? Have they made gruesome videos of Westerners having their heads sawed off? If you know the Kurds, then you know the answer to all of these questions.

PERSIANS AND OTTOMANS:

The destabilization of Iraq and Syria meant only one thing to the Iranians and the Turks. It’s one of the very few issues the Ottomans and the Persians have in common. The fear of the Kurds! The fear of a new nation called, Kurdistan! Both the Turks and Iranians own land the Kurds lay claim to and you can toss in Syria and Iraq while you are at it. The loss of land is valid reason to go to war and war is exactly what the Iranians and the Turks are willing to risk to prevent Kurdistan. Not only are the Ottomans and the Persians willing to risk war, the rest of the world believes their threats. Here is where it gets real complicated. Nether the Turks or the Iranians are willing to trust each other over the issue of the Kurds. They both want the nightmare of Kurdistan to go away and they are both willing to go to extreme measures to insure it never takes place, but how do they do that without risking the “other side” coming out on top? You see………………the Turks and the Iranians don’t like each other. The history of the Ottomans and the Persians is not a one of cooperation! Neither side wants the Kurds to form a nation state, but neither side is willing to let the other side gain a possible advantage in the region. So, it comes down to this. How do the Ottomans and the Persians deal with the issue of the Kurds with the real end- state being not letting the other guy be seen as the hero? No joint victory here! There is no room on the spotlight stage when it comes to the Sultan of Turkey! Oh……..by the way……….did I mention the Kurds are Sunni? What are the Turks……for the most part? What’s taking place in the region? Oh ya…. A religious, faction, Civil War.

PROXY:

Conflict by “proxy”. That is the 20^th and now 21^st Century way of large nations doing business. If the Kurds need to be neutralized, send in the Proxy fighters. Who are the proxy fighters for the Iranians? Shia Militias! What are the Kurds? Sunni?  Can anyone see where this is heading? Will the GCC support Shia Militias fighting the Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Iran, Tukey? Are the Saudis willing to let the Turks, a declared Ally, stand by and watch fellow Sunni’s be wiped out? How much satisfaction would the Saudi’s gain from observing the Kurds, tremendous fighters by the way, drive Iran crazy? Hint, all of this has been going on for several years now.

Proxy groups are the flavor of the day in the Middle East and that is not going to change. The issue of the Kurds and their drive for independence has been on the radar from day one. It’s the one thing the Turks and the Iranians truly fear. Does the issue of Kurdistan drive two old rivals into some type of delusional alliance? Who would that upset? How would it really unfold? How would the Sunni Arabs react? In just a few days, the Kurds are going to vote. No one is going to acknowledge the outcome. No one is going to stand up for the Kurds. Even those who would will be neutral at best. Here is where the Russians come in. The Iranians cannot be allowed to crush the Kurds. It’s up to the Russians to keep that from happening. As for the Turks! Well, Egodan, as I call him, see things one way. His way! If all that happens on the 25^th is a proclamation, a proclamation no one will recognize, then the Kurds will have to force the issue. Then what? A day doesn’t go by that the Middle East Region doesn’t become more and more complicated……………………….dangerous! 

THE RUSSIAN/ CHINA PLAN FOR NORTH KOREA. “ PLATA O PLOMO”?

The new Silk Road is the answer? “Joint the club and make money”? Is that the concept the Russians and the Chinese have come up with for North Korea? Enticement? http://www.atimes.com/article/russia-china-plan-north-korea-stability-connectivity/

I have to admit, when I read this article, I had to smile. It’s a seen right out of the God Father movies.  No surprise here. The intent of the Russians as well as the Chinese is to keep the US / West / from finding its own answer for the North Korean issue. War on the Korean Peninsula is not an option for the Chinese or the Russians; or the South Koreans for that matter. So, let’s get all sides to sit down, with the exception of the US, and let’s talk what really matters. MONEY!

Yes, the allure of the new Silk Highway allowing the Korean Peninsula to be united, at least along economic lines, could be a tempting approach to the crazy fat guy in the North. Telling a story of, “we can all make money and all these hard feelings will go away”, that sounds enticing. Even the Japanese came to the table, or they came to listen that is. On the surface, it sounds like a “Great Deal”! So, what happened? Why didn’t the Hermit Kingdom jump on the deal? What “downside” could they possibly see? The fact of the matter is, they did turn it down, for now as they put it. Why? Why for now? What other goal other than survival as a nation might they have? To the Russians / Putin/ the response must have been puzzling! Who turns down “deals” from the God Father? More importantly, who sleeps at night knowing they said “no” to the Don?

Carrot and the Stick:

Did the Russians and the Chinese come up with this “deal” in a true collective? Was this truly a Russian / Chinese plan? Did the Tsar come up with the idea and the Dragon simply said, “Okay….let’s see what they say”. Do either of these countries only offer Carrots? Does anyone think this offer was made with no mention of the “Stick”? What else may have been communicated to the North Koreans when this offer was made? If the concept was openly covered, what about the alternative?

PLATA O PLOMO:

Is the Tsar and the Dragon “Plata O Plomo” kind of of leaders? Oh….most of you have no idea! What is Plata O Plomo you might ask? For those of you who don’t know, in Mexico, when a Drug Gang ask the locals to do something, the presentation is simple. “ Plata O Plomo”! Silver or Lead….. you choose! Was this a Plata O Plomo moment for the little fat guy in North Korea?  I would be willing the unofficial message came as soon as the North said, “ Not right now”! The little fat guy needs to learn Spanish quickly. Something tells me that was his ONLY “Plata” offer he will get. His successor will get the same offer. If that offer has already been made and the next “Great Leader” has said “Si”, then the little fat guy may be have another old saying coming. “ Tonight, he sleeps with the Fishes”! 

NORTH KOREA AND NOW A HYDROGEN BOMB?

How many times have I written about the issue of North Korea? Has anything really changed? Is it even with talking about? Is anything going to change? Why am I even taking the time to write this post? All good questions and for that reason, I’ll once again weigh in on the issue.

HYDROGEN TEST:

Was it a Hydrogen device? It appears so. Does it matter? Yes.  Why? From a tactical level, the destruction efficiency is vastly superior to a typical nuke. Pardon the pun, but it’s a matter of more bang for your buck! If true, it’s a physiological victory that allows the Little Fat Man, perhaps I should stop calling him a nickname that is related to a nuke weapon, to continue to thumb his nose at the West. So, if it’s all true, score yet another one for North Korea.

CHINA:

I’ve said it before and I will just keep saying it. It’s in China’s power and interest to solve the North Korean issue. Two years ago, I spelled out a simplistic, but dangerous concept for the Chinese. It went something like this. Get some of the North’s Generals to accept a deal they can’t refuse. Get them in position to Kill the Little Fat Man and then invite the Chinese / South Korean governments to form a coalition, interim government after the coup takes place. Hint. They don’t have to invite the US to the party. When the dust settles, the Chinese have what they want and the US / West has what they want. A North Korea that is no longer a threat to the world. The US / West without an excuse to have a large standing military on South Korean land. A China that shows the world they truly are the only nation that can solve the complex problems of the region! Sound simplistic? What is the alternative?

THE US AND ITS ALLIES:

I’m not going to use the “Kick the Can[DS1] ” metaphor this time. I’ve used it over and over again just like the US leadership has for the past three decades. Options! Someone tell me what the options are for the US? Someone tell me how you solve this never-ending crisis without pronouncing a death sentence to a million people in one city alone? If your answer is a ballistic shield, a system where launched warheads are intercepted in flight, then tell me the plan for convincing the Chinese the same system will not be left in place to counter any Chinese capability? Take a look how that conversation has gone with the Russians and the issue of Europe. 

CAPITULATION:

Is that the answer? Capitulation? Does the US and its Allies simply make threats against the use of nuclear weapons and there by admit they are going to live with a nuclear North Korea? There is every hint in DC that is exactly what is taking place. What will that lead to? What so called, “message” does that send to other rouge nations such as Iran? Is capitulation the bluff the next madman can count on? For Iran’s sake, I hope and pray that is not the case. The resolve of the US may be based upon the unacceptable price of war, but the nation of Israel cannot spell the word, “Capitulation”! And with that, the ugly truth once again comes to the surface. The North Koran event is not just about North Korea. The ability to get where they with nuclear weapons didn’t come from North Korean Scientist. Those who have allowed North Korea to achieve this goal are responsible for the future that may be about to unfold. The Dragon wants everything its way. It wants to dominate world trade, the new Silk Highway. It wants to be the new leader of the world as we stumble into the 21^st century. “Let them eat Cake”. That may be the attitude, but here is another old saying the Chinese may want to ponder. “You can’t have your cake and eat it to”.  Kill the little Mad Man. Get the North Korean Generals to accept the offer you can provide them. Give the US a reason to pack up and go home from South Korea. Do these things and the world may just avoid the next nuclear war.

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 [DS1]

INDIA AND CHINA….AS IF THE WORLD NEEDED ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONFRONTATION.

First off, let me just say I don’t believe India and China are going to go to war. Okay, that’s out of the way. Now I just hope I’m right.  Anyway, it wasn’t that long ago I spoke to the issue of India and China. Unfortunately, it seems both sides are willing to push the topic of tension just a little further. By the way, this must come as a complete surprise to the Russians. Remember, they too are a member of the BRIC, and we all know the BRIC is one big happy family! So, what is the deal? Why are these two BRIC members stepping towards a fistfight? Sidebar. I read today Chinese and India troops were tossing rocks at each other in the disputed territories everyone is talking about. As a person who spent most of his adult life in the most professional military in the world, I find it amazing two, modern-day militaries could degrade themselves by having a rock throwing event take place. Both of them should be embarrassed.  That worried me! 

A NEW CHAMP:

Two nations with populations well over a BILLION people! Why would anyone expect them not to have ambitions on the title? Both feel the time is nearly here for them to wear the Belt!  The new Champion! The new undisputed Champ! For several years now both have watched the West and Russia decay. In the eyes of the world, the US seems more divided now than at any time in the recent past. Russia is trying to mount a comeback, but the limits of their economy simply will not let them enter the ring. They might play the part of spoiler, but the changes of the belt going to them is slim to none, at least without a really large war. So, India and China sit in the same weight category, at least on the issue of population and potential, future economic growth. India is not anywhere near the Dragon in military strength, but when you have over a BILLION people and nukes, you are never out of consideration for the title match.  

SILK ROAD DETOUR:

The absolute Center of Gravity for the Chinese has become the new Silk Road concept. Here is the problem for the Billion Indian folks who have nukes. The new Silk Road takes a deliberate detour around their location. Even worse, it is building stops in the backyard of India’s so called partners / Sphere of Influence. Why would that be? If the intent of the New Silk Road is one big, happy, global family of economic trade, then why the detour? I will tell you why and this is not news if you have read what I’ve been saying for months now about the New Silk Road. The only “Road” the Dragon is building is the highway to dominance. World Dominance and a Billion Indians with nukes might get in the way of that plan.

INDIA HAS ITS OWN DREAMS:

Is India far behind the Chinese in military might? Yes, with the exception of Blue Water Naval Operations.  Does India have a dream of being a major power in the future? Absolutely. Would the Chinese Silk Road project jeopardize that dream? Yep! Will India be reluctant to show weakness on the current issue of territorial rights? Yep. Will China? Yep! Does this dispute have the propensity to get worse? Yep. So, two nations with over a BILLION people each and nukes are standing nose to nose over a slice of dirt that has strategic value to the Chinese master plan? Should we be worried? I’m sure I’ve missed numerous economic issues that would have had this read more like something out of the Wall Street Journal or Asia Times and for that I apologize. It’s just that it’s hard for me to think about two major Military powers, both with nuclear weapons, both who up until now I’ve held in high esteem, getting into a rock throwing match. Should we be worried? I’ve asked this question time and time again. but, Is it possible for the world to go to war without the US being part of the initial decision making process? World War I ….World War II?  Rocks……tossing rocks at each other?  Captain Morgan take me away! For all my Muslim friends…just kidding…….Apple Juice…I’m having Apple Juice! 

KIM JONG-UN “WALKS BACK HIS THREAT TOWARDS GUAM? DID HE AND IF SO, WHY?

So, the Little Fat Guy in North Korea “walked back” his threat? We can all look the other way now. Once again, we can kick the North Korean Can down the street. It’s been a very long street! Does everyone feel better? “Peace in our Time”? One other fool made that comment years ago. But, for argument’s sake, let say he really has had second thoughts or a change of heart. Before I get way down the road of why, let me go on record as saying…………..I don’t believe him. Never take the word of a complete madman. That’s been one of my golden rules for years. Okay, back the “why”.

CHINA:

Did the Chinese get to him? Who did the week long war of words really impact? Did the game of Tennis between The Donald and Kim unnerve the Chinese? Is the timing not right for the planned war? So, the Chinese stated they would go along with the latest UN sanctions on North Korea? Really? Because, if they did, it would mean more trouble for the Little Fat Guy than he could handle. 90%. That is what the Chinse mean to him. 90% of his trade. Did even his crazy little mind figure out he may have gone too far, at least for now? If he did, you can bet he didn’t like it. If the Dragon looked down on him and began to inhale, he may have got the message, but he will toss a fit when the Dragon flies away. It’s that post, “OKAY….OKAY… I will tone it down”, issue that makes me doubt the “Peace in our Time” statement.

THE DONALD:

Crazy statements from an American President unlike any the world has seen in modern times. Was the Little Fat Guy really ready for the way The Donald reacted this time around? Did Trump actually get to Kim? Lord knows the Western Media will never see it this way as they are all on the hunt to bring down the Trump Tower in DC. But………….But………. Did Trump win the “I’m not kidding” game? If he was smart, that is exactly how his team would play what just took place. Interesting enough, I truly think the Russians may think Trump backed Kim down. It’s a tactic they admire and it’s not impossible their perception is, Trump won the war of threats.

I CHANGED MY MIND:

So we wake up sometime in the very near future and the Little Fat Guy is at it again. Then what? Does the Dragon swoop back in, land look down and him and start to inhale? Does The Donald come up with the next twitter comment that sends the Progressive left and their legion of media stalkers into a frenzy? If the Chinese really did put real pressure on him not to execute the Guam event, you can bet he is already dreaming up his next stunt.

TIME:

Here is the point that scares me. The US estimate of North Koreas nuclear strike ability is stuck in the political and international world. As I stated a few days ago, the real intelligence on North Korea is the picture no US political leader wants the public to know. The US military only has one stance on the subject. If the US goes, it goes to win. That’s it. Simple. No, exit plan. No five year out, rotation plan with billions to be made by the legion of contractors that follow US conflicts. Crush your enemy. Do it without mercy and look at the rest of the world and say, “ I told you so”! That is the military mindset and to the Left, that is the picture the antics of The Donald over the past two weeks has presented to the world.  How in the world can you have a forum on the future of public bathrooms if some madman in DC is talking about nuking another madman? At the end of the day, the Left will get their way. Kick the North Korean Can! Deep inside the rooms of the Intelligence Agencies the hard work is being accomplished. When will the Little Fat Guy fire his next test? When will he be able to put an EMP shot into the upper atmosphere over Japan or the West Coast of the US? Good luck my friends, for we all know your reports will be shaped to tell the story from the viewpoint of someone or party, worried about the next election. 

CHINA TO “REMAIN NEUTRAL”

The media in China. It’s nothing more than the mouthpiece of the government. Yes, some say the same thing about the West, but it’s nothing more than a rhetorical statement once someone or some nation calls them out into the light of the obvious. So today, a Chinese media outlet makes the statement that China would remain “neutral” if North Korea took any action that might threaten the US? A scripted message? Yes. Every statement from the Chinese is “scripted”. Flying off the handle like The Donald is not a characteristic of the Chinese. “We won’t protect them if they do something really stupid”! That’s it? That is the message? Who is the message for? The North? The US? Yes…..Yes to both. Then came the backside of the “message”. If the US or South Korea, ad any other US Allies here if you like, take actions to try to change the government in North Korea, China will not “allow” that to happen. What does that mean? You can strike the capabilities of the North, but just don’t attempt a regime change? Leave the Little Fat nut-job in power? Sounds crazy, but wait, what was the End-State of Desert Storm?

LOCKED AND LOADED:

Yes. The US military is “locked and loaded”! It is always “locked and loaded”.  So, what else could that mean? If that statement is a message, who is it to? Worse, who reads it and thinks it’s for them? Is the US and China talking about this latest round of North Korean madness? You know they are. Can someone get the word to the Chinese that, “Locked and Loaded” doesn’t apply to them? Well, we better hope so. Who can make the next inflammatory statement? This is like watching a Tennis Match and the Chinese sponsor both players.

BACK TO THE BASICS:

I’ve been saying this for a few months now and it’s time to say it one more time.  Let’s look at the basics of this whole issue.

China’s desire is to be the dominant power in the Pacific.

China’s desire is to control the world economic trading process. Can you say New Silk Road?

China realizes the goals they have set are not going to be achieved without conflict.

China must manipulate that conflict to insure the damage doesn’t nullify desire’s one or two.

China anticipates the population in the major actors of the conflict, US, Japan, South Korea, are not and will not be supportive of a dramatic event.

China believes that after such an event, the logic for US military power in the region will be gone. Win or Lose.

China has prepared itself to be the one nation that can “rebuild” the economic damage to the region and the world.

China sees at the end of the day, China has what it wants. It’s the Regional power and it controls the rebuilding of the world economy.

Sound crazy?  We are witnessing a very scripted process on the part of the Chinese. A process that has been yeas in the making. Today’s message of, “We would be neutral”, perhaps it’s the last shove to get two people into a fight?