QATAR. “YOU ARE ETHER WITH US OR AGAINST US”

Qatar is in hot water again with Saudi. Not the first time, but this one may be somewhat different. It does appear that this time around the severity of the disagreement is deeper. So, what does this mean for the region? What does it mean for the price of gas as that is about the only thing most of the people who have heard of this story really care about? The fact that the events in London took place at the same time drowned this story almost completely, at least in the West.

Qatar. 20 percent Shia. Qatar, with the exception of the work force, all Arab. Saudi, the juggernaut of the Sunni faithful; just don’t tell that to Turkey or Indonesia. So, why the so called friendship between Qatari’s leadership and Iran, Shia, Persians, as if I had to tell you that! 

Saudi, the leaders in Oil. Everyone in the Gulf took and takes second fiddle to Saudi on the topic of Oil. Qatar. The new leader in natural gas, well, don’t tell the US that. Does someone not want to be “second fiddle” anymore? Would that explain the nation of Qatar abandoning the Sunni, Arab world? Doesn’t make sense to me and it doesn’t sell with a lot of other folks.

Al Thani! Is he the Persian version of the Manchurian Candidate? Did his coup against his Father originate in Tehran? It wouldn’t take much for the Saudi’s to grab onto that theory. My problem with coming up with such a thought is based on capability. Is the leadership of Tehran capable of pulling off a Manchurian Candidate plan?  Could the Persians get control of the Son and then, when the time is right, support a Coup? Would Saudi Intelligence not catch wind of such an elaborate scheme? I’m sorry, but I can’t support the very hypothesis I came up with, but I bet I could sell it to the Saudis right now!

What then? What is taking place here? Let’s try this one on for size. Al Thani is yet another egomaniac who is drunk on the power he ripped away from his Father? Does anyone think Saudi or any other member of the GCC supported the Coup….really?  is Al Thani just another Saddam? Does he wake up in the morning, read the news articles his government dictates to Al Jazeera and truly believe what it says….you know…….is he believing his own press? Earlier, I made the statement perhaps Qatar doesn’t want to be “Second Fiddle” to Saudi anymore and I said that I didn’t believe it. Well, maybe it’s not the nation of Qatar that believes the “Second Fiddle” theory. Maybe it’s just the kid who executed the Coup? Why does that matter? Why would I bring that up?

The George  W Bush Days:

“You are ether with us or against us”! Those were the words of Bubba. It now seems those are the words of Saudi. What path is being taken here? Where could this rift end? Is Saudi willing to let the Coup Plotter pull the GCC apart? With the tensions so high between Iran and Saudi, what lengths is Saudi willing to go to? One of the arguments for the US invading Iraq needs to be reviewed here. How many times did you hear the US government say, “We are not against the people of Iraq; we are against the Leadership of Iraq”? Could Saudi plot the Coup against the Coup Plotter? Who would be against them doing so? If you said the US, then think again. The largest US military base in the region is in Qatar? Coincidence? No. What better way to control a potential trouble maker, then to have a large standing force right smack dab in the middle of their country. Yes, the US didn’t support the Saudi events against Qatar. Yes, the US’s tone was, “Can’t we all just get along”, but who did The Donald go see first in the region? Who is more important to him? Is The Donald capable of playing, Good Cop, Bad Cop with Qatar? Absolutely!

What is taking place in the GCC is very……very….serious! What is at stake is the overreaction of Saudi as they see an Iranian plot behind every Sand dune.  This event will not be allowed to continue down a road where Iran gets to play the role of being more diplomatic, more logical than Saudi. Tehran may think this is a wonderful opportunity, but I would caution them to be careful on the statements they make right now. Perception is king in this world and the perception that Iran is taking advantage of this Coup boy in Qatar is a dangerous game for the region.

As for the Emir of Qatar. Young man. A Coup against your own Father is one sin. A betrayal of your faith and your people is yet another. The one thing that victories Coup Plotters seem to forget is that over time, other “Plotters” are close to you! This game has jumped to a much higher level than you wishing to make Qatar the new Fiddle in the region. Let’s see where this one takes us. 

BADR BRIGADES IN SYRIA? OLD NEWS

Took off for the past two weeks or so as I was trying to get ready for the Graduation of my youngest Son. Well, that and honestly there was nothing that earth shattering taking place in the world to warrant me taking the time to write. Did get a few more pages of the book banged out and that is a good thing.

So, what did finally catch my eye to the point I felt compelled to write something this week?
Badr Brigades in Syria? So the Israelis thought that was a news worthy story? I’m not sure why. The idea this group is entering the fight in Syria is new news is off the mark. To some degree, many key members of this organization have been on the ground in Syria for some time now. So, why the story now? Is it really news this group is showing up in Syria? Nope! But, before I address the issue of why they are there, let me touch upon some truths about groups like this one.

Over rated! First and foremost they are overrated. Are they better than the average Joe who had decided to pick up a gun and run around inside of the country once known as Syria? Yes. Yes they are, but don’t misinterpret who they are and what they can do. They are not the modern day version of the Persian Immortals. Honestly, I would take a few female Kurds over them any day of the week. By the way, never…..every…trust the skills of a group that has to show you pictures of themselves wearing all their fancy toys and posing like they are Robo Cop. If you have to show people how “cool” are, then you are most likely less than impressive when the sh…. Hits the fan. Bottom line, the Badr Brigade posers are very much over rated. Have some of them seen hard combat? Yes. Yes, many of them have. The problem is, in that part of the world, anyone over the age of ten has seen hard combat. It’s the new normal in that part of the world. Face it boys of the Badr, you are simply nothing more than a photo op. That leads me to one question. Why the coverage? Why the hype by DEBKA?
Whose idea was it to send this “elite unit” to Syria? Moscow? Nope. Assad? Nope. Tehran’s? Yep. Did Tehran clear this event with Moscow? I don’t know if they needed to. Was it really news to Moscow the Badr bunch was heading into Syria? Did the story even make sense to the folks in Moscow? Did someone in Moscow read this and say, “Badr in Syria??? Ya……so what”? to the Russians, this statement probably ranked right up there with, “ Hezbollah is operating in Syria”! What changed? What made this statement necessary? Are the Israelis worried about something to the point they have to build a bases for more dramatic actions in Syria? Is DEBKA just looking to post something that might sell a few more subscriptions this week? This whole story seems very strange to me.

Yes, there is no rea love story between Moscow and Tehran. Yes, the Iranians are not running down the path of letting the Tsar call all the shots in Syia. Yes, Syria is more important to Iran than it is to Moscow. All of this is true, but a story about the overrated Badr being sent into Syria is just odd. Even if some significant number of their units are being moved into Syria, they will do whatever other unit in Syria has done for the past five years. They will get bogged down. They will get static. They will become just another player in a much larger game.
No the “Immortals” have not shown up in Syria. No this is not some tectonic shift. I’m not sure why this story was put out there, but then again, there simply wasn’t a lot for me to look at this week. Same old, same old has been the rhythm for the past few  weeks.
Venezuela. That is the topic I’m taking on next. That is the one that is flying under the radar, that is, until the Little Fat Man in North Korea pushes the Dragon too far.

DR. JOSE MANUEL MIRELES IS FREE… NOW THE TEST!

Nearly three years and Dr. Mireles is out of political prison. For those of you that know me, I’ve followed this man since the day his Autodenfensa came up on the radar. Back then, my discussions on his movement and what it might mean for Mexico could not be talked about. Back then, opinions on what his group indicated for Mexico was…………let’s just say sensitive. But that was over five years ago and a great deal has changed in Mexico. The Drug Lords have been rounded up. The Mexican Government is in full control of the countryside. Mexico is no longer a cousin to Afghanistan, where the government only rules in small areas and only during the daylight. Mexico…..the land of Vampires……maybe Tarantino was on to something? Okay, enough of the literary comedy.   The new and improved Mexico…what a joke!

Refresher:

For those of you who never read my post about the good Doctor, here is a quick, cheat sheet version of what took place…………………a way………….simplistic review.  Mexico’s history of unrest and revolution had and it seems still has a point of origin. Dr. Mireles’ Autodefensa originated in that same, general area. No one knew this better than the Mexican government. At first the government ignored the Autodefensa groups, much like they did the drug gangs. It wasn’t taking place inside the gated communities of Mexico City so why did the government care. The “outlands” were for the common folk. Funny, somewhat the same way the coastal Elitist in the US look at the “flyover country”.  Think about that for a minute. Anyway, as time went on, the status of these groups began to grow and grow quickly. Before they knew it, the Mexican Government was potentially facing a 21^st century version of Poncho Villa. Dr. Mireles was beginning to worry them. He was beginning to rally the common poor and that would not be tolerated. Simply put, the good Doctor was seen as more of a threat to the Mexican government that the Drug Lords.  The problem seemed to grow worse by the day. Soon, it was obvious the Mexican Government could no longer just kill him, although they did see the value in letting the Drug Gangs doing so. That didn’t happen and that didn’t make Mexico City happy. Mireles’ popularity even grew to the point that taking him into custody for a trumped up charge seemed too risky. His stature was growing by the day and the folks in Mexico City became more and more worried. Finally, a breaking point was reached. The risk taking the good Doctor into custody outweighed where is popularity might take him. The Drug Gangs were attempting to mimic the Autodefensa concept in hopes of destroying the public’s trust in them. To some extent this worked and several of the lesser known Autodefensa groups were infiltrated. Even the good Doctor’s organization had its Traders. To the Mexican government it seemed like the ideal time to make their move. Charges were made, and the primary mission of the Mexican government became the capture of this new Poncho Villa. Oh..Ya.I forgot the crashed aircraft attempt on him, but that’s okay as it didn’t work.  Off to prison goes the Doctor and then a very detailed disinformation program was launched to destroy this growing legend. His wife even became part of the program against him, but that was the Doctor’s fault. He should have kept his pants on. Doc! A Woman Scorned!! There you have it. The down and dirt, snapshot of the good Doctor.

Now the big test:

What happened? What made the Mexican government release him? Was it social pressure? I don’t think so. If that amount of social outcry was still out there, then the Mexican government, who feared him three years ago, would still fear him to the point of not releasing him. What else could have convinced Mexico City to turn lose the one man who could bring about a revolution in Mexico? Did the Mexican government convince themselves Dr. Mireles was no longer a threat? Has his allure with the Mexican Farmers and poor fade away? By the way, please don’t feed me that line about how the Mexican Legal System was at work here. Please don’t try to paint this as Mexico’s version of “blind Justice”. Come up with rational counters to what I say or just go read the sports page. Now, back to my point. If the Mexican government came to the conclusion it was “safe” to release him, that still doesn’t answer the question of why? Why Release him if his appeal really has dissipated with his base? If that’s true, why not just keep him in prison until he dies from natural causes? Well, that statement might just be the reason he was released. Anyone who has followed the good Doctor knows his overall health condition. Perhaps the Mexican government realized his death in prison would be spun as the government killing him. Perhaps he is less dangerous on the streets than becoming a Martyr in Prison? As important as it is to understand why Dr. Mireles was released, it’s more important to contemplate what happens next.

Can Doctor Mireles reinvigorate his old base? Can he light the flame of resistance? Will the people rally around him once again? If there is any one question the Mexican government must worry about, it’s the issue of, “now what”? Where does he go? Who does he link up with? Just how close will the government keep tabs on him?

Two years before Doctor Mireles’ movement became a reality, I was one of those who warned some of my cohorts in DC what might take place in Mexico. I was one that watched the Arab Spring and stated, “What will trigger the Mexican version of this event”? The day the Mexican government announced the Mexican military would take to the streets of Mexico to battle the violence tearing the nation apart, I made the announcement Mexico was now on the road to revolution.

Are the people of Mexico no longer willing to stand up to a totally corrupt government? Are they unwilling to fight for what is left of simple lives? If the government of Mexico believes this and they decided to put the new Poncho back on the streets, they have made a deadly mistake. A mistake that might set into motion the next round of real fear in Mexico City. The fear of their own people….the people who live beyond the walls around Mexico City.

Doctor Mireles. I have some advice for you. Stay away from government invitations for meetings. Be careful who approaches you, seeking your support. Last but not least…..keep you pants on man! Leave the lovely revolutionary girls alone.

Mireles is out and everyone should be paying attention.  

NORTH KOREA, CHINA, US AND THE CONCEPT OF SANCTIONS.

 https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-north-korean-venture-shows-how-much-sanctions-can-miss-1494191212

Vacation!!!! They actually said vacation? “Okay kids…..get in the car…we are heading to the city dump for a Picnic”!!!!!  A Company spokesperson looks a report in the face and says, “We sent a team of our people to North Korea for vacation”! Sorry. I just had to get that out there. As I read this story, it’s the one point that stopped me dead in my tracks!

Sanctions. I’ve said it time and time again. Worthless! Without true commitment they are simply worthless or in the case of the US, just a process the government uses to fool the public into thinking they are actually doing something. Here is what angers me to the point of walking away from this post today. All of the elitist politicians who stand in front of a camera and tell their public they are taking, “strict measures” know the real story. They understand just how easily the intelligence community and the financial agencies can detect what is really taking place. Just read the story attached and you will see who knows what and when.  Yes, I know the political rebuttal is always based on, “we are moving cautiously on this important issue”! Double speak. Simple smoke and mirrors to appease the voters. They know full well the ineffectiveness of so called sanctions. The legal loopholes are written by whom? Right! Them! As you read this story, pay attention to just how easy it was for this company and countless others like them to skate the rules. Rules made by the same political leaders who announce sanctions.

Where are we on North Korea?

 Once you have read the attached story, ask yourself, where are we on North Korea? My answer, we are right where the corporate and political leaders want us to be. Sitting there believing everything we are told. More sanctions…… more names identified …… more loopholes. From day one, these sorry excuses for leaders we call politicians know full well the sanctions route is a dead-end road.

In the past, I’ve called this “kick the can”. It’s what Clinton did on this same issue. It’s what every US President after him did. It’s what Trump will most likely do. It seems making money and keeping your trade partners happy is far more important than a madman getting his hands on nuclear weapons.

I applaud the Wall Street Journal for exposing the myth behind the process called sanctions. As for North Korea, if this is the game the world has been playing over the issue of their weapons program, I’ve have one demand for political leadership. Every so called political leader must have all of their children who are of military service age assigned to a combative unit and must be mobilized in the time of conflict. If we have to send military service members to their death in the name of the games political leaders play, then their children must be on the front-lines.  You think they fight term limits? Wait to someone makes my concept known to them.

Sanctions! Worthless in the hands of the corrupt. 

RUSSIAN “SAFE ZONES” AND VODKA!

So, I’ve read the “plan” and the new releases for the announced “Safe Zones” the Russians came up with for Syria. Yes, I know it was “joint” plan with Turkey and Iran, just don’t ask the Turks or the Iranians what their input was, given they don’t know! But, anyway…..I’ve read this “plan” and it most certainly tells me one thing. The consumption of vodka by the Russian General Staff is alive and well!

A safe zone that incorporates the Golan Heights and has Iranian military officers as controllers? Really……Really? So who in the Israeli government agreed to this concept? Name me the person who attended the “Joint” planning session the Russians had for this delusional answer to the Syrian Civil War. Who in Moscow listened to this concept and thought, “Demetri…. You are a geniuses…that is it….we have solved the problem of war in Syria”! Answer? Nobody! Nobody thought this plan had or has a chance in hell of taking shape. So, here comes the real question. Why? Why did the Russians make such an outrageous announcement?

Desperate.

Just how troubling has the Syria ordeal become for the Russians? Has anything changed? If the Russian actions in Syria were based on their anger over Western actions in Eastern Europe, NATO expansion, then perhaps they are sending yet another statement? It’s impossible to believe the Russians would not understand the Israeli reaction to a “safe zone” near them run by Iranians. It’s impossible. It will not happen.

Anger.

Are the Russians once again angry about something? Is the Safe Zone concept simply a tit for tat for Macedonia? Was that event that important to the Russians? Yes….yes it was and yes, it is! The issue for them is not just Macedonia, it’s the continuation of NATO’s movement. It’s an issue of Albanian vs Serbs. Yes, it’s important to the Russians, very important. Is it important enough to force the Turks and the Iranians into a false relationship? To make a NATO member hold hands with the US’s enemy, Iran? Is it important enough to announce an event that the Israelis simply will not stand for? By the way, a “no fly zone” will not be honored by the US and it certainly won’t be honored by Israel.

So, what took place here? A Vodka driven hallucination or a deliberate tit for tat in the ongoing issue of Eastern Europe?  As much as the Russian General Officer Staff loves good Vodka, my bet is tit for tat is the answer. 

THE CIA PLOTTED TO KILL THE “GREAT LEADER”??? OR MAYBE NOT!

If you have read this story in the past day or two, you have to ask yourself a basic question. Is it true or not? Would the US plot the assassination of a nation’s leader? Yep. Just take a look at Chile if you need a very good and successful example. Would the US plot the assassination of the Little Fat Man? Why not? If you can kill one man and save the lives of hundreds of thousands of others, why not? Somehow the vision of water getting on the wicked witch and the Place Guards thanking Dorothy, comes to mind!

My favorite game:

What if?

What if North Korea is right in their statement? Just how much further to the edge does that push the Little Fat Man? By the way, mouthing off to the Dragon….AGAIN… this week was not just stupid, it’s now getting scary, but that is a discussion for another day. The fact the CIA had not comment is interesting. If the story is true, then how will North Korea react? If the story is true, did the world jut get closer to a conflict on the Korean Peninsula?

What if?

What if the story is a complete fabrication? Why? Why would the North make up such a story? Could it be the Little Fat Man, LFM from here on out, trumped up the story….sorry…couldn’t resist…. To incite his loyal citizens. Incite them for what? What would he be trying to prepare them for? Is he looking for the groundwork or justification for some event? Is the next test coming or something worse? Why fabricate a story as elaborate as this one? Why so many details? Why put out such a story the same week you apparently slap your master in the face? If he made it up, does he really thing the Dragon won’t be able to see through the story? Here’s one for ya! What if the Dragon knew LFM was going to fabricate such an event? Not out of the question, but I would be surprised if it were so.

The fact of the matter is, North Korea has made public a very serious accusation and yes, they are a nation that has a history putting out very elaborate stories. It’s also a fact, the US and South Korea seem to have little to say about the North’s accusation. Again, not an unusual response to North Korean statements, but these are not normal times. At the end of the day, we know this. Ether the story is true or it is not true. My fear is the “ Not True” answer is more dangerous than the “True” answer!

THE TSAR AND THE DONALD SPEAK…AGAIN… NOW WHAT?

On May 1^st Secretary of State Tillerson speaks to his Russian counterpart. On May 2^nd, a phone call takes place between the Tsar and The Donald. It seems the topic of Syria was the primary issue, with a sidebar on the issue of North Korea. At the end of that meeting, the US announces they will send yet another representative to the meetings taking place on the 3^rd and 4^th of May, but they are not sending Ambassador Krol. On the 3^rd of May, the Syrian opposition announces they will not attend! I have one word……….deja vu……………… or as the great Yogi Berra once said, “It’s déjà vu all over again”!

So, why? Why did the US once again agree to attend yet another round of worthless meetings on the issue of Syria? Did The Donald not want the Russians to push out yet another round of press releases stating the US was not cooperating on the issue of Syria? That’s old news and nobody reads old news anymore. Did the Tsar say something this time The Donald wanted to hear? He knows all too well the US wants no part of any deal that shows any level of cooperation with Iran….period! The Tsar has left the Iranians out of the conversation in the past, so did he add something to the pitch this time? Why is Ambassador Krol not attending this time? Did he not bring value add to the last meeting? Did he feel as if the event was a waste of time? Did The Donald want to send a message by not sending someone at the Ambassador level? Is anything going to come of this next round of “talks”? No and everyone knows the answer is no!

The Call:

What was the phone call really all about? How often do these level of phone calls take place? Let’s face it. If the staffs of ether of these world leaders didn’t want the world to know they were talking, we would never know. For all we know, they talk every day. “ Yo… Vlad…did you watch the Yankees last night? What a game”! Who knows how often they talk, but we do know one thing; Syria is not the primary reason they talk.

Two underlings set the stage for a discussion. That’s the typical pathway to world leaders talking, so no big issue there. Well, maybe!  The statement was made a secondary conversation was held on the topic of North Korea. Who’s secondary topic? The Donald’s or the Tsar’s? My bet is the primary topic for the US was North Korea and the Primary topic for the Tsar was Syria. A trade. They both traded topics! Okay, so what? Why does any of this rise to the level of someone commenting about it? Well, here is my pitch. If this “talk” signifies anything, it shows The Donald is not the complete, insane, unpredictable, illogical, attention deficit disorder egomaniac that CNN and other Western media groups make him out to be. He does talk to the other most powerful man in the world. He does talk issues that are vital to the US and to other Super Powers! They do have the ability to “talk” when it’s important! Credit? Will the US leftwing media give him credit? Of course not! After all, he’s a complete crazy person….just listen to MSMBC or CNN. They will mention his name at least a thousand times a day!

Yes, two world leaders talked yesterday. Yes, the topics were important to the stability of the rest of the word. Yes, the liberal media will continue to paint a picture of The Donald and the Tsar being complete madmen. That’s their job; to push the liberal, passivist progressive agenda. The news? Well, that is of little importance when you have two world leaders you are trying desperately to destroy.