THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA’S DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY. WHERE DID IT COME FROM AND WHAT IS IT UP TO NOW?

I was reviewing a few of the stories posted on one of my favorite websites, one that covers events in Mexico; Borderland Beat.

When I came across this story, one that centers on perspective many in Mexico and the perceptions the US Department of Homeland Security has with the people of Mexico. Before I get started, I fully accept the argument that many in Mexico are not near as negative as those who deal with the Drug War on a daily bases when it comes to the actions of the US and the agencies from the US that interact with Mexico. But, I would be willing to bet the perception of the US Department of Homeland Security in Mexico is not a positive conversation.

Back in 2001, when the concept of the Department of Homeland Security was being developed, I was one of those who openly argued it was an ineffective idea at best. It was and still is my opinion the concept of The Department of Homeland Security / DHS / was and is redundant. I was not in the minority at the time, but the events of 2001 were such that arguing against doing something that would combine multiple US federal agencies, who at the time were truly stovepipe operations, well, it simply wasn’t worth the effort. It wasn’t going to impact the organization I was working within and frankly, I had other issues that were far more pressing then worrying about yet another US federal government program.

Countless stories, research papers, documentaries have been placed in front of the American people on just how DHS came into existence and what roles does the agency  really play in the day to day lives of the typical US citizen. But, if I had to summarize in one sentence what took place, this is what I would write down. The US Department of Homeland Security was initially designed to give the American people reassurance the nation was looking internally for newly understood threats to the overall safety of the county. Twitter version…. It was about perception management.

In the early stages of its conceptual development, a process that for the most part took place in Congress, it seemed the political energy was being spent on finding a way to explain to the public  why such an event as the attack on September 11^th  could have happened. Was there a sound, strategic review of what changes might need to take place? No. Sorry, but the answer is no, at least, not in the normal sense of program development. Yes, there was little time to reset the American public’s confidence and yes, part of the explanation for why 9-11 took place was going to involve the word “failure” at a colossal level on several key federal agencies. So in the end, the foundation for the second largest federal agency in the US government was poorly planned and the repercussions of this poorly designed program is continuing to have an impact on the US with each passing day. But, that was not the most critical failure!

After months of wrangling and political backroom discussions the Department of Homeland Security was ready to be briefed to the American Public. The picture was going to be that of unity and synergy and yes, even cost effectiveness. That last concept is the one that gets me the most!  The goal was clear, the process of developing the pathway to this goal was fatally flawed.

What went wrong? Why was the concept of the Department of Homeland Security destined for ineffective action? Politics. Imagine that. Politics guaranteed a bloated, bureaucratic money pit that was only going to grow in size and cost given that is all the US political leadership understands. If you spend more, it must get better!  Let me give you just one example of the bureaucracy this new super agency was going to execute under. I had a conversation with a FBI agent, who was a neighbor of mine, soon after DHS was actually operational. I hadn’t had a great deal of time to realize this concept was underway and it wasn’t until I had returned from the Middle East that I had the opportunity to even think about what in the world “DHS” was and how it worked. When I asked my neighbor how the relationship between his agency and this new agency was going to work and how it would impact his agency’s efforts to figure what threats were out there, his answer was more than stunning. I cannot remember his exact words, but the meaning was clear. They, the FBI was going to continue to do what they do, just the way they do it and DHS just needed to stay out of their way.! Now, mind you the official response from DC as to how the attack of 911 happened was based on “lack of coordinated” information / intelligence. That federal agencies didn’t work together, didn’t share!  Was this true? Yes. Was it the reason 9-11 took place? No, but that is a conversation for another day.  I must admit, knowing the FBI the way I did, I was not surprised by the answer my neighbor gave, but his explanation, now that amazed me.

The Department of Homeland Security was concept based on consolidation and at its face value, to the typical US citizen, that was a logical concept. To consolidate the actions of agencies to insure the unity of effort is achievable, that just made sense. But, go back to my comment about backroom, political dealings and the flaw again shows itself. My neighbors explanation was this, most of the supervisory positions in the newly formed Department of Homeland Security were structured around interagency .transfers. A large proportion of the line supervisors came from the other collapsed federal agencies. To put it in the simplest terms, political leadership agreed that rank structures inside of the collapsing federal agencies would have a minimum impact on the people in those agencies. If a GS15 in the Department of Transpiration was going to fill a newly formed GS 15 slot in the Department of Homeland Security, then the person filling that part would not take a reduction in pay. So, what did that mean? How did that impact the effectiveness of this newly formed agency?

Armature hour! In the world of identifying, tracking and countering threats to the US, threats other than bad food or spiders riding on bundles of bananas shipped to the US, the new “leadership” of DHS was laughable; laughable in the eyes of the agencies who had been in this business for decades. Now, is this a fair assessment? Was DHS really a conglomeration of federal employees that had little experience in the world they were now thrust into? Remember the purpose of this politically driven agency. Perception management! Make the American people believe they are safer now than before the events of 9-11. Here is what the political leaders had not realized. Those who were already deeply involved in the process of keeping the US safe from hostile acts, the same ones the political leaders blamed for 9-11, they were now being forced to work with yet another agency, but this one was run by people who were………well………armatures! Yep, perception management goes both ways. Somehow, the political leadership of the US truly believed they could blame those who truly do defend the nation and then force them to work side by side with a brand new group of “experts” who for the most part knew little to nothing about human threats. In 2002, an FBI Assistant Special Agent in Charge of a regional office was on a peer level with a DHS supervisor who had less experience than a rookie Police Officer. Was this true across the country? Again….that word….perception. Had political leadership comprehended what was the ramifications would be if the FBI, CIA, NSA, DIA and DoD was told to work hand in hand with people who didn’t understand the job in front of them? No. Did they care? No! The presentation to the American public on what DHS was and what it was tasked to do was far more important than putting into place process that would make the department functional. It was the US postal service on steroids or so the FBI and others thought! They still do, they just won’t say it in public

It’s been over fifteen years since this bureaucratic, kneejerk reaction took place and guess what? It’s grown in size and cost with each passing year! Imagine that, the US federal government spending money faster than the printing presses can make it and all in the name of keeping the country safe! You’re not against keep the US safe are you? Yep, that is the explanation the US public hears year after year!

Okay, I started this by referencing the Mexican viewpoint of DHS. Now that I’ve given my version of the history of DHS, let me address the real issue and it’s not just about Mexico’s perception of the US Department of Homeland Security.

Somewhere around 2010 the US public perception of DHS began to change. At first it was just the fringe elements that perceived DHS as too powerful, too intrusive and too arrogant. Soon it became much more mainstream to read or hear stories of how DHS was “intrusive”. I can’t remember what movie I was watching, but there was a moment when a city Police Detective said, “Okay, let’s leave this guy up to ‘Homeland’, they will want to talk to him’! I sat there for a moment and thought to myself,” who is ‘Homeland’ and why would a Detective deliberately turn an active case over to them and not the FBI”? In the movie, a Homeland Security Investigator takes charge of interviewing a suspect. Now, I knew Hollywood has a long history of screwing up how real Police work takes place, so I just let this part of the movie go. A few days later, I was talking with a retired FBI Agent. I was telling him about this movie and I asked him if DHS really had investigators. To my shock his answer was yes! “So, you mean DHS has people who were a badge and gun out in public? I thought they just watched the borders and inspected vehicles. I thought they worked at airports making sure little old ladies didn’t have liquids in their purse. You mean to tell me DHS has a Law Enforcement branch”? I know I was behind the times on the actions of DHS, but I was stunned the US government had taken, in my mind, such a huge leap! By the time my FBI friend finished explain to me what changes had taken place in DHS, I officially join the ranks of the concerned!  What was going on? Why was the federal government expanding the authority of this agency? Soon after that, my work brought me back into daily contact with a few other federal law enforcement agencies along with a state level agency. It seemed that DHS had quietly executed the classic “Mission Creep”.

It’s 2016 and the US Department of Homeland Security is charged with what? If you stopped the average American citizen on the streets and asked them, “What is the mission of Homeland Security”, what would they tell you? Does anyone really know? In the past several years, there is an unquestionable growing fear of the federal government in the United States. It’s not held by everyone and the percentage is still below a majority, but fear and mistrust are poison to sound governance and that fear is growing. What examples are being touted as the proof of a federal government becoming too intrusive? Is DHS one of the key examples? Remember the key word in this post, “Perception”!  

Final analysis:

The US Department of Homeland Security was a kneejerk reaction of political leadership, on both sides of the US political arena, based upon not having sound answers for the US public as to why the attacks of 9-11 took place. It was not a strategically developed concept, regardless of what any political leader might argue.

In 2016, the American public must ask itself a series of very important questions.

1.      Has the agency expanded its initial charter? If so, by who’s approval / authority? Did the US citizenship get a vote?

2.      Could the country survive without it? Would the ability to keep the US safe be degraded? If so, quantify the defense.

3.      Is the agency redundant in any area? If so, why?

It’s sad to say the Department of Homeland Security has been a political tool from its inception, but then again, almost all federal agencies have become political tools! The most recent example of the Department of Justice and Hillary Clinton’s actions is a frightening example.

Finally as you sit and ponder this growing federal agency, remember this.

There is a very fine line between security and tyranny!

http://www.borderlandbeat.com/2016/10/greed-and-corruption-knows-no-borders.html

IT’S THE TSAR’S BIRTHDAY AND THERE IS NO DOUBT  WHAT  HE WANTS.

Well, the most interesting man in the world turned 64. As he blew out the candles, I can only imagine what he wished for.  To see Europe grovel at his feet. To watch the West / US / simmer in their contempt for the Birthday boy. To grin like the Grinch as the UN flounders over what to do with the growing Sectarian war of a billion Muslims.

On the 64^th birthday of the world’s most interesting man, events seem to be falling on to the table like presents. Everybody in the Russian household sings Happy Birthday today ether out of admiration, and that is most of the Russian people believe it or not, or out of fear, but you better be seen singing!

Life is good for the 64 year old bare chested Tiger hunter, but the international “Happy Birthday Card” list is most likely rather short. Remember that kid you knew whose parent’s held a Birthday Party for and you were one of two or three kids that actually showed up? Yep. It’s like that.

Putin is a visionary, wrapped in a personality of an introvert, an introvert who is driven by his “vision”!

There is no “we” in his world. There is no, “together”. There is only Russia! Russia and the man who will singlehandedly rebuild the Motherland to its Glory. The man who will finally make all of Europe look East with respect, fear and in his mind, admiration.

The Tsar turned 64. What other presents might he be buying for himself? The world can only watch and wonder…..oh ya...and sing Happy Birthday….. for you see… he is watching who is not singing!

The world’s most Dangerous….. I mean mysterious Man! 

SCORECARD UPDATE:

TURKEY…THE RUSSIANS…THE KURDS…NATO…THE US AND SAUDI:

Rumors are flying again about what “deals have been struck between the Turks and the Russians. Although I’ve addressed this complex question on several occasions, it’s time for an update on just what is taking place.

I’m fairly sure the last time I took a shot at this “relationship” issue, I mentioned I would come back and address the repercussions of a Russian / Turkish “deal” on Syria. I’m almost sure I mentioned the art of double-dealing and crossed fingers behind the back, but just in case, I’ll bring this dangerous part of the discussion up again. As a reminder, I do not write for the level of someday publishing yet another worthless book on the events in the region. I’m not here for the money! I’m here for the mystery!

All right, let me keep the overarching concept as simplistic as I possibly can.   Nearly five years ago, I addressed the issue of the Ottomans only having one real goal with the conflict in Syria and that was to prevent the creation of Kurdistan! That required them supporting those that a NATO partner should not be accused of supporting. The good news was, the West / US / was not going to make such an accusation and they never did!

Now, Assad was willing to make his own deals with the Kurds if the Kurds would indirectly support Assad’s fight. Egodan realized the Kurds were striking a deal with Assad and thus Egodan decided to support those who were against Assad. As a reminder, nobody was working to address the issue that started the whole conflict and that is typically what happens when a social uprising morphs into a Civil War. In this case, the metamorphosis lead to a Superpower struggle; one not instigated by the West.

In the middle of all of this, arose the festering issue of the EU still refusing to let the Turks join the “club”! Egodan’s reaction, one of them, flood Europe with a human wave that would destabilize just about every seated government in Europe and even England.  Now, he had some help with this concept, but we will get to the Tsar in a minute.

If you needed more confusion at this point, let me touch upon the insanity that was taking place within the US administration. What rebel group was worthy of supporting? Nobody had a real clue and they still don’t. Are they “Rebels” or are they “Terrorist”? If the only perspective you use is the one from your side of the argument, then you are going to make bad decisions and the US has made dozens of them. How could the US accuse the Turks of supporting the wrong groups, if the US couldn’t figure who to support and who to target? Did members of each group jump sides and did that make supporting any of them nearly impossible? Yes. I addressed that danger over four years ago and just about every prediction I made has come true. Sad.

When the shoot down of the Russian fighter took place, it propelled the tensions in the region to a new heights. And then, something extraordinary happened, the Tsar turned the event into a yet another crippling blow for the future of NATO and Europe.  How did the Tsar fabricate this event into a new relationship with Turkey? Remember what I’ve been saying for several years now. The Tsar plays Chess and the West struggles with Checkers! The West has “rules… check and balances and a free press to explore and question political decisions. The Tsar has none of this. Yes… Advantage goes to the Tsar.

Next level of confusion coming up!

How do the Turks, who are against Assad staying in power come to terms with the Russians who are determined to keep Assad in power? Look at this question this way.  What is more important to the Tsar? Assad staying in power or degrading the standing of NATO? Remember what I have said is the ultimate goal of the Tsar from day one. Europe must come to terms with the new Russian Empire and realize whose support they should really work towards?  The Turks want the respect of the EU and they are not going to accept a Kurdistan. The Russians support to the Kurds, who support Assad, is worth what to Russia? Correct! Nothing! A tool. A leverage point in the complex Chess game played on the board of Europe’s landmass. Kurds! They are expendable! They should be used to it. The West has abandon them in the past. Does anyone remember the months following the end of Desert Storm?

The “deal” was struck, whatever that “deal” may be.

At this point, if you know the region well enough, you may be asking, “ but what about the Turk’s relationship with the GCC/ Saudi?

How could the Turks stop supporting Sunni fighters who are in a life and death struggle with Assad?

 How could the Turks who are Sunni side with anyone that is supporting the Shia dreams of the Persians”?

If you understood the region to the point you asked these questions, then you also should understand one of the greatest characteristics of international agreements. The art of Double-dealing, fingers crossed behind the back…. You know…. Betrayal!

If the Turks have told the Russians they will stop supporting the Sunni fighters in Syria if the Russians will not allow a Kurdistan event, the question becomes has the responsibility to support the groups that had been supported transferred to some other nation?  The Turks make commitments for Tukey not their other Allies. As for the Tsar and any commitments he may have made to Egodan, well, the King of the Mafia Kiss has thought this whole “commitment” concept out….. you can take that to the bank!

THE TSAR HARDENS THE SYRIAN FRONT? FOR WHAT?

Well, one again, I was going to address a truly hot topic, India, Pakistan and China, but once again, the events of Syria simply became too important to slide into second place.

So, a state of the art anti air system has been deployed by the Russians into Syria? Is that new news? No. The 400s were placed in Syria almost a year ago. This news is based upon the deployment of the SA-23 Gladiator system. Is that something new? Yes. Is it another indicator of how bad things are getting or is it just a more posturing by the TSAR? Yep. It’s both and with the Tsar, it is always more complicated than one might think.

Hmeimim Air Force Base? Is this something new? Yes.  Are the two issues related? Absolutely!

As we all know by now, the issue of the Russians and the US pointing their finger at each other, almost to the point of it being their middle finger, over the collapse of the laughable ceasefire in Syria is becoming more unmanageable by the day.

As I was reading over the stories, none from the US I might add, over the issue of the airbase and the SA23s, I couldn’t help but notice the stupidity of the US Department of State once again, shining through the clouds of the obvious.  “ ISIS doesn’t have Aircraft… What are the Russians worried about”? You, know what, my mother use to tell me, “If you can sound intelligent when you speak, then don’t bother”! With the actions of the Russians, this is the best answer the US Department of State can come up with?

Who understands what these two events are really about? The US Department of Defense, that’s who.  If you haven’t figured it out yet, then you may have a future as a senior advisor in the US Department of State.

Protection!  What the Russians set into motion is a classic case of “Umbrella protection”!  If the Russians believe the US may actually be considering striking key Syrian air assets, then the best thing to do is place the Russian flag at those locations? Does that work? Well, you might want to read a few recent articles about the American Flag being seen and several Kurdish operating bases in Syria and who put those flags there and why.

Is it important the Russians are taking these actions? Yes.

 Does it indicate the situation between the US and Russia is getting worse? Yes.

Is the US really contemplating strikes on Syrian sites? Not if the US Department of Defense has anything to say about it.

Is the Tsar willing to take this standoff to the next level? He will go to the next level five times over if needed.

As I stated a few days ago, the US administration is tired of being made to look like a fool over and over again at the hands of the Tsar. 

If President Obama is worried about this place in the history books being tarnished by Putin, I would advise him to think before he reacts. His reactions are exactly what the Tsar is looking for.

As Europe looks on, the Tsar makes the US look foolish, knowing all the time the next cycle of leadership in Europe may be looking for a new Strongman. Yes, the future of Europe’s dependency is the issue here, but the US and the West can’t find a counter to anything the Tsar is doing.

John Kerry is upset he didn’t get his way on attacking targets in Syria, targets that may have Russian flags flying over them. Yep, John Kerry, the Statesmen!

Good grief! 

ALEPPO “FINAL ASSAULT” WHAT’S HAPPENING? IS THIS FINALLY A SHIPWRECK?

I intended on addressing the issue of India and Pakistan and the growing danger stimming from the Kashmir conflict. Honestly, that situation is just as dangerous as the current political crisis over the air attacks on Aleppo. But, today’s continuation of inflammatory statements from Russia has lead me to readdress the Syrian issue before I can get back to Pakistan and India.

Perhaps in the next day or two, I will do a more complex review of where things stand in Syria.  After tracking this event for over five years, many issues remain the same, but the intent of some of the outside players have taken a potential ominous turn. For now, I will stick with the hot topic, Aleppo and the pending ground action.

Does the Syrian government see the significance of regaining control of Aleppo, or what is left of it? Yes.

Does Tsar see the battle for Aleppo as an indicator of Russia’s actions in Syria? Yes.

Does the West / US / really have any viable options for influencing that pending ground assault in Aleppo? No!

So, who holds the upper hand on Aleppo? Yep. The Tsar.

Are the Iranians, Syrians, and Russians in lockstep over the issue of Aleppo? No.

Does the West / US / understand how to leverage this superficial alliance between Iran, Syria and Russia? No! That is why the advantage is on the Russian / Assad side, well, the Russian side at least.

Just how damaging is this Aleppo issue in terms of Russian / Western / US relationships? Let’s put it this way, the US is talking far tougher than any of its Allies, with the exception of England. To Europe, the pending battle for Aleppo will only have one impact on them, the assurance of more Human waves heading to Europe.

Some are wondering why the battle for Aleppo is so emotional for the US. Why are such harsh words coming out of DC? What has happened that would lead a progressive, passive administration to talk about pending body bags full of Russians being shipped back to Moscow? What changed that has the US making statements such as, “all options are on the table”? Is Aleppo really that important? Are the numbers killed in the past two weeks really that horrific? Should we compare the killings in Central Africa in several ongoing conflicts, what makes Aleppo unique? By the way, under the leadership of Bill Clinton, an estimated 300,000 people were massacred in Central Africa in less than four months. Remember, according to Bill Clinton, he was the first real “Black President” in the US. Sarcasm? You decide.

Is the US administration so frustrated by being outmaneuvered by the Tsar time and time again that a professional approach is breaking down? Is the US “losing it ‘cool”? I would suggest that is exactly what is taking place.  As of today, the official mouthpiece of the Tsar, Sputnik, has painted a picture for its readers, Russian readers, of the US threatening Russia to her face! 

Is conflict between the US and Russia actually possible? Could the US and Russia come to blows over something as trivial as Aleppo? Before you say “no”, you must factor in a deadly combination.

A few weeks back, I commented on the dangers of frustrated passive governments perceiving they are being taken advantage of, being pushed around and having their compassionate temperament used against them with the end state of being made to look like fools.  Have you ever noticed how passive people can suddenly become engaged in an instant and the explanation is, “they were pushed over the edge. They were push too far”.

So, ingredient number one: Frustration, enduring, embarrassing frustration!

What is the other ingredient?  Panic!

Is the US administration near panic over the Russians actions in the Middle East? A little over a year ago, the Tsar decided to enter the Syrian conflict and by doing so, begin to realign the entire region’s balance. Turkey is now less of an Allie of the West than at any time in the past 100 years. Europe is on the verge of tossing out every progressive government in the EU with the human wave from Syria being the central cause. The South China Sea is not an issue of a Russian, Chinese Alliance. Have nearly eight years of US foreign policy lost at sea created a page in history that will mark the Obama administration as a disaster in world history? Has the perceived conflict between the US Department of State and Department of Defense exposed the administration’s leadership crisis?

The story goes, last week, the US Secretary of State argued for armed conflict by the US in Syria and the US Department of Defense disagreed with passion. The US Secretary’s comment was, “I lost the argument”. Now, think about that. John Kerry argued for conflict? Conflict with who? When did John K become a military planning expert? When did he develop the skills need to identify proper targeting? What did he argue should be attacked? Syrian Airbase? Airbases that have Russians working on them?  What did he argue the Tsar’s reaction would be? Would he take the losses and just say, “Ok, I give. I’m going home now”! The guy who Tiger hunts with his shirt off? 

Panic. Are these signs of panic and Frustration?

Can panic and frustration lead to conflict? The Russian are reporting the US is going to act in Syria. If they believe it and are stating it in public, what is their plan to respond? That is what you will not hear.

Is this just about Aleppo?

Has the ship lost at sea finally become a shipwreck?

I hope Donald Trump’s taxes and Hillary’s trustworthiness are not the only things people are paying attention to. 

SAUDI’S 2030 VISION. WHAT IS IT AND WILL THE REST OF THE WORLD SUPPORT IT?

Now, before you ask, “what in the world is he talking about tonight and how did he get to this topic”, let me explain why I believe what I’m about to talk about is not only important, but I would say critical to finding a way out of the crisis that is now the Middle East.

Today, I was talking with a young man who lives in Kuwait. If there is a model for what the future could hold for the whole region, he is it. Young, 20 years old. In College. Wise enough to know he is at a point in his life where listening is more important than speaking. He has begun to understand the value of compromise without compromising those things that are important to each of us, his values and beliefs. He has ambition, but not a lust for power and wealth. How I’ve come to know him is not important. The fact that I believe he is the prototype of what it will take to truly bring social and economic stability to the region that is important. In short, I am honored to have such a fine young man as an acquaintance. By the way, I know another twenty year old that is inspiring. He is my oldest Son. It fills me with optimism to talk to young men like the two of them pushing forward in different parts of the world.

My young Kuwaiti friend and I were talking about opportunities in the region and what was worth paying attention to. The topic of the day was the Saudi 2030 concept. If you have not heard of it and odds are most of you have not, I’ve attached a link to news story that address the plan.

 If you read this link and or search the internet, you will end up asking yourself one basic question, “Why”?  What is propelling Saudi to take what many consider the most dramatic economic transformation plan ever attempted in the world. Sound dramatic, well, keep searching the web and you will find several economic experts who categorize the 2030 vison in just that frame of thought, “dramatic”.

Why? That’s a valid question and as such, let me make an attempt to explain “why”.   Let me start with asking my own question. Can any nation sustain its relevancy in the world based upon a single source economy? Can Saudi Arabia be where it is today 100 years from now, if the nation continues to only revolve around oil?

So, is the 2030 about national survival? For the most part yes. Does the success of this plan guarantee Saudi’s future? Nothing is guaranteed in life other than death!

Is there anything more important to good governance than survival?

Survival! An interesting word. Whose vision of survival should we use? When everything is going great and those in government are rewarded by a gratified public, survival means keeping the public “gratified”. If the main ingredient for maintaining this “gratified” sentiment is a single source item, in this case oil, and government knows that item is finite in nature, then what? How do you maintain the “gratified” state? By the way, in many parts of the modern world, wove together by social media, the word “gratified” is translated into “stability”! How does a current government keep their society stable? In the end, there are basically two ways. They can beat them into constant submission, good luck with that one in the 21^st century world of social media. The second and more logical path, although unfortunately, many governments chose the first course, is to security, equality, education and most importantly, economic stability.

 Years ago, I had a conversation with a very wise man on the issue of the Israel, Palestine conflict. He made one of the most profound statements and it has stuck with me to this day. “If young men had to get up in the morning to go to a job that provided a good life for their families, if jobs gave them the chance to have a family, if hope was based on a salary and not the inflammatory words of old men or guns, then the conflict would be in a courtroom and not in the streets”! Yep. The whole point was about stability! Is stability, gratification the desired outcome of Saudi? Is it not the desire of every nation?

Saudi’s future leadership, one in particular, has developed a formula for the long-term survival of the nation.  Not only is survival a key point of the 2030 plan, but growth. With growth comes stability and with stability comes gratification.

Now that we believe the issue behind this bold vison / plan is the survival of Saudi and it’s growth as a nation going into the 21^st century, how do the visionary leaders, who  came up with the plan, make it become reality? As the old saying goes, “The Devil is in the details”!  What are the “details”?

If you read the complete news release from the Saudi government, you will notice most of the “details” stay at a very strategic level. Areas of importance are framed, but working level “details” are delibertly left out. As you can guess, as soon as many skeptics read the 2030 plan, the first reaction is typical. “ It all sounds great, but how do they really plan on accomplishing this vison”? The other predictable comment is not far behind. “Saudi has no capability to make such a massive shift. It has no true desire to let the government release power in so many different areas”.  Skeptics attacked this plan from day one. Global economic “experts” were questioning the size and magnitude of such an event. One of the most common reactions was, “it’s only 14 years away”! Is the outside world skeptical? Yes. Does that mean it cannot happen? As long as the Saudi leadership doesn’t listen to them, the answer is up to them.

Can it work? Can the 2030 plan actually transform Saudi Arabia away from an oil based, government controlled economy? Yes. I say yes, because of one major advantage the worldwide, economic experts forgot to take into account. What choice does Saudi have? The oil will not last forever. The world will move away from oil based energy. Technology will move mankind forward. This plan is not a ship that Saudi may or may not decide to set sail on. The oil based ship is sinking. It may not sink soon or it may sink suddenly, but it is sinking. A future leader in Saudi understands this. He has taken the time to map out an alternative course and that course is based on change, real change. Change that doesn’t require his nation to compromise its beliefs, but simply to find hope in a new future.

Hope, Saudi has come up with a plan that at the end of the day inspires. It calls for out of the box thinking and that thinking starts with the government providing the example by letting go of traditional issues that have been under government control.

It will take youth, and determination to make this vison come to reality. It will not go exactly has planned, no plan ever does. Things will change and that is where the power of compromise becomes so vital. Others will see this plan as a threat. Regional nations may see the Saudi plan as the blueprint and inspire similar plans.

One thing is certain, Saudi is going to spend a great deal of time and energy and money on attempting to make this vison a reality. Youthful leadership will be the key.

So you see, my young friend in Kuwait and Saudi are a lot alike.

Here is the challenge, the West can ether support the changing Saudi Arabia and thus regain a great deal of the trust that has been lost in the past eight years. Or, the West can have its economic “experts” continue to second guess and thus handicap real change in Saudi. As for me, I’m going to support 2030. I will be monitoring this process carefully for as long as I can. 

At the end of World War I, the West set into motion a roadmap for the entire region that has lead to disaster. If Saudi is setting sail on a new course, the odds are many in the region are going to be willing to follow.

Like any new plan, the preparation and the early stages are key. If vison leads to hope, then hope can lead to gratification and in the end………….stability.

I’ll be watching!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-25/key-elements-of-saudi-arabia-s-blueprint-for-life-post-oil