THE DRAGON… ZOMBIES AND HONG KONG.

Ok, so what in the heck does the current Ebola scare in the US have to do with the protest in Hong Kong?

Great question and one I will have fun playing with!

First off, let me get a few “scene setters” out of the way.

How long as the Dragon been worried about a Chinese version of the Arab Spring…Tunisian virus… yep… I still call it that.

Well, go back and look at my post from the week the Arab Spring started and you will see my answer even back then.

Short answer…. From day one!

Does the Dragon believe what is taking place in Hong Kong is their fears coming true?

Yes.

Does the Dragon realize the similarities to Tiananmen Square only reside on the protester’s side?

Yes.

What does that mean?

It means the method of dealing with Hong Kong cannot be replicated.

Why?

Easy….. times have changed and there is this thing called “Social Media”.

Can the Dragon shut down ALL abilities to utilize social media in Hong Kong?

Yes, but at the price of bringing the city to a standstill.

A modern day city’s life blood is the internet and Hong Kong dies without it.

So, the similarities between Hong Kong and Tiananmen rest solely with the protestors.

So, what options does the Dragon really have?

Ah….. Here is where the story gets very interesting.

Option one:   Do nothing!

Yep… That is not going to happen.

Option two:

Wait it out!

Large, inner city protest seem to have a life cycle of about five or six days, depending on the weather.

After that, the fun seems to fade and many people have to head back to work/ school.

Also, crowds also begin to cycle on a 24 hr clock.

Large numbers leave during the day to get rest.. go to work.. or get homework up to date.

During those predictable cycles, the authorities can move in and then deny the reentry to the primary protest zone.

The problem then becomes, the crowds get upset.. the numbers increase and then a new location is chosen…back to square one…. Case study… Egypt!

As for the Dragon, the issue here becomes “image” and in the land of the Dragon, image is everything.

 This option shows the Dragon to be weak, unable to solve its problems and indecisive!

All three of those are unacceptable to a Dragon dreaming of ruling the free world.

So!

Option three:

Crush the resistance!

Tiananmen Square round two!

Many have stated for days now that option is “off the table” for the Dragon!

Most have commented the Dragon’s image would suffer a huge economic blow… a blow they would not risk!

Enter the Zombies!

Back in the Dragon’s lair, Beijing, the plan is set.

Wait…

Watch..

Listen…

Is the West growing more and more worried about the Zombies of Ebola?

CNN/// FOX… MSNBC.. if anyone watches MSNBC, and yes BBS all continue the live coverage of Ebola in the US!!!!!

“Are there more… How did it happen… is the nation ready… will it spread to Europe”?

The story feeds upon the tabloid press as the public grows more worried of anyone who might cough.. spit or fall down!!!!

The Dragon determines it has a few days left…it can wait… the hunger to strike is tamed by the knowledge the eyes of the world may be shifting towards the Zombies!

It just needs the Western Media to do the Dragon’s bidding.. keep scaring the US population.

Keep the US leadership worried about elections in five weeks.

Keep pulling the world’s eyes away from Hong Kong and the Dragon’s victim.

Oh yes… and the Dragon has learned a lesson from the Tsar and his actions in the Ukraine.

When it comes time to swoop down on the masses in Hong Kong, be dressed like the Hong Kong Police.

For you see, there is no Dragon there that day..

No.. .The Dragon is back in it’s lair!

And on that day, the Dragon will say, It respects the right of the Hong Kong Authorities to insure the safety of the good people of Hong Kong!

How many bodies will the Dragon consume?

Will anyone in the West really care as they peek out from behind the curtains to see if Zombies are walking the streets yet?

SO.  WHAT BECAME OF THE UKRAINIAN “CRISIS”?

Took off the past few days to get a few other things out of the way, but it’s a new month and time to get back to business.

Ukraine?

Where did that story go?

Yes the flavor of the week is Islamic State with a side dish of Ebola, but why did the Ukrainian conflict fall off the media radar?

Lack of blood and violence?

Well, that has a huge impact on the attention deficit public, but are there other reasons?

Here is one everyone might want to try on for size; the Tsar!!!!

From the very beginning of this Ukrainian story, I’ve stuck to my guns on what is taking place.

What is taking place in the Ukraine is no “accident”.

The “end state” of this adventure will be based upon what the Tsar desires and it appears he desires a halt in-between phases!

If we look at what was taking place just prior to this current “calm”, we will understand the big question.

Just prior to the Russian deployment of forces into South Eastern, the Pro  Tsar forces were about to be routed.

Was that an outcome the Tsar was willing to accept?

Hardly!

Had the process been executing according to the Tsar’s plan?

Well, no… but such is the case of many complex, strategic plans!

What happened next was all too predictable.

The Tsar simply up the stakes and the West closed their eyes.

With Eyes Wide Shut, the West accepted what they didn’t want to face, Russian forces in Ukraine.

So, with a plan not going as “planned”, the Tsar placed his plan back on track.

Let’s face the facts.

If the Pro Putin forces would have been routed, the Tsar would have been facing the greatest failure of his career.

With the reality of Russian forces on the move in Southern Ukraine and the Tsar’s resolve to take the event to any level necessary to succeed, the West did the only thing it could do; tell the Ukrainian government to stop!

As of today, where does the event stand?

I’ll give you a hint.

Winter is nearly on the region and the Pro Putin forces now have a secure section of the Ukrainian East to reorganize from.

Could they have done the same from just inside the Russian border?

Yes, but the message / perception would have been all wrong for the Tsar…..Defeat!

This Winter the Pro Russian forces will be hard at work……hard at work of plotting the next phase of the Tsar’s plan to retake the region.

Does that mean things are quiet for now?

Yes..

Is that music to Western ears?

Yes..

Are the dangers in the Ukraine or Eastern Europe over?

Give Poland a call and ask them.

YEMEN AND WHAT REALLY MATTERS TO SAUDI?

Once again, and predictably I might add, the stability of Yemen moves to the forefront, or at least from the Saudi perspective that is.

I was reading the attached story by Khalaf Ahmad Al Habtoor and was struck by a comment that I had not considered.

In the eyes of the GCC leadership, the Persians now control four historically significant Arab capitals: Damascus, Baghdad, Beirut and now Sanna.

So, what is truly more important to Saudi and thus the GCC?

The defeat of a proxy organization, admittedly a dangerous one, or the Persians?

Can a Sunni based movement be manipulated by the Persians to kill fellow Sunnis?

Yes and it is already taking place.

Can this same movement be utilized to disrupt the Persian plans?

Yes, just look at Iraq.

So, in the eyes of the Gulf States, where is the real threat?

Are the events in Yemen more important than the events in Syria?

Depends on who you ask.

What will the new event in Yemen lead to?

Did the GCC members take part in the mission to bomb Syria for the sake of the West?

Did the GCC take part in order to show the Persians they have the will and the ability to fight in an integrated fashion?

If yet another “statement” needs to be made by the Saudis and the GCC, will it be made in Yemen?

Will the Peninsula  Shield forces be used in Yemen?

Where to the Saudi F15 /16s fly next?

If the mission is to “destroy” the “Terrorist”, does only the West get to define who the Terrorist are?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/26/Iran-follows-its-agenda-while-the-Arabs-are-distracted.html

AS ASSAD TAKES CREDIT, WILL THE “COALITION” HOLD?

 As you read this link, skip down to the section called, “right direction”.

Ask yourself this question.

If Assad continues to paint a picture of the West “supporting” him, backed by the US State Department admitting to communicating with him, will the key Arab partners stay?

Can a Sunni government withstand the public press of Assad taking credit for the “cooperation” with the Alliance?

What really gets me is the implied point of, “it’s a good thing they told us and didn’t harm our civilians”!

Remember, only Assad is allowed to butcher his servants, I mean civilians.

How Assad would shape this Western Alliance was the top concern of GCC leadership when they signed up to the US plan and I am sure it’s even more of a topic today.

Can the Iranians and the Tsar get Assad to make even more aggravating statements thereby stressing the US “Alliance”, you bet!

Remember what the Russian strategic goal is here; Western / US / failure in the Middle East.

Will the Coalition Hold?

We are going to find out soon.

 http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2014/09/24/U-S-officials-issue-warning-on-Syria-based-threat.html

DOES THE “CAMPAIGN” AGAINST ISLAMIC STATE FORCES LEAD TO WHAC A MOLE?

So, some type of “campaign” is now underway in Syria and rest assured, no matter how well thought out the process was developed by the Pentagon, the politicians will figure out how to screw it up!

Now, that is not to say whatever the planners came up with would work, given one of the oldest rules of conflict; they enemy gets a vote”!

Whac a Mole:

Some have talked about the possibility of this phenomenon taking place once a true “campaign” began against the Islamic State forces, but the reality is, it most likely will take place and it could prove to be the undoing of the “ campaign”!

Leadership of the Islamic State movement understands they have no ability to conduct a  ‘force on force” conflict with their attackers.

They do realize the ability to show they survived and can still strike fear in the hearts of their attackers is the absolute definition of victory.

If 30 days into a Billion Dollar Air Campaign, by the way, don’t fool yourself into actually thinking this is only an Air Campaign, yet another innocent individual loses their head on You Tube, where does the public opinion go?

  If one of the Allies of this new “campaign” looks to their South as sees an out of control Crisis in Yemen, what is the reaction?

If a Jordanian national is kidnapped and executed, what then?

If an IS cell attacks in France?

Is everybody in; all the way in?

The West and its Allies have made their initial move.

It won’t be the last action on the Alliance and it will not be the end of the Islamic State movement.

It’s one thing to say, “this will be a ‘long’ campaign.

It’s another for the public in multiple nations to understand it; just ask GW.

Did the enemies of the Islamic State movement just kick off the next round of “Whac a Mole”?

How many locations can the Western Alliance bomb?

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/09/23/The-fall-of-Sanaa-What-next-for-Yemen-.html

THE RETURN OF TURKISH CITIZENS, DOES THAT MEAN TURKEY IS IN NOW?

A little over two weeks ago, the standard US State Department answer on the support of Turkey for anti IS movement was, “they are really hamstrung by the ‘hostages’ and are limited in what they can do”!

Ok, the Hostages are back!

Now what?

Can the Western / NATO / forces fly out of the NATO airbase in Turkey?

Will Turkey’s military openly support the operation?

Perhaps we should look at this issue from another perspective?

Is the new Ottoman Sultan going to allow the Kurds to come out of the battle with IS victorious?

What is more important to the Ottomans?

The destruction of Islamic State forces or the suppression of Kurdistan?

I bet I know!

Now, is it possible there will be some, “unofficial” support, limited in nature, from Turkey?

Probably enough to placate the West; a West that is desperate not to criticize the Turks in the first place.

Pulling Sunni so called “moderate” forces all the way to Saudi for months of training makes far less sense than simply moving them across the border into Turkey, a military that is very skilled at training to NATO standards.

Is that going to happen?

Is our NATO partner going to play a NATO role?

Some things always take place without fanfare.

Sometimes, some of these “things” are more important than the ones placed in the open.

Is Turkey going to play their required NATO role now that the excuse is gone? 

IF ISLAMIC FORCES “MUTATE”, WILL THE WEST STILL PURSUE?

Rumors upon rumors in the past few days centered around IS forces folding in with other Sunni movements in Syria have perpetuated yet another key question.

If IS forces “mutate”, will the West / US / still pursue the fight?

How many similar movements is the West ready to attack?

Last week, I stated one of the most common forms of survival for Guerrilla fighters is to melt away and live to fight another day.

One version of this tactic is to hide inside a movement much like the one that is targeted, but not currently on the “target list”.

Now, the argument can be made that if an organization is forced to take such action, then “change” has been forced upon them and that change can lead to an acceptable outcome.

If IS forces are forced to go to ground, forced to fold into a like organization, does that render them less effective?

Yes.

Does that mean the battle is won?

Absolutely not.

Here is one of the greatest dangers with this course of action.

It’s very probable the sympathetic attitude towards this group can come flowing to the surface if in the act of “retreat” they are attacked. 

It’s the accepted action of barbaric, uncivilized movements, but it’s an act that is quickly  questioned in a “civilized” nation.

Simply put, if the bad guys hide inside a group not seen as a threat and then they are attacked, the world opinion can turn virtually overnight.

If you doubt me, ask the Israelis about the tactic of Hamas hiding amongst it civilian population.

Who understands this modern day, civilized media driven phenomenon?

Yep…. The Leadership of IS; that’s who.

Winter is coming to Northern Iraq and Syria.

A winter where unmotivated, poorly lead Iraqi forces and war ravaged Syrian units will take every opportunity they can to avoid combat…. By the way…combat in the freezing cold is much...much more difficult than in the heat of Summer.

As for the Kurd forces…. winter is an excellent time to train….plan and demand more advanced weapons from an over energetic Western leadership so called “ coalitions”.

Remember…. The Country of Kurdistan must be the endstate of this conflict and new Western weapons will ensure that vision……at the anger  of the Ottoman Empire.

If IS mutates…… will the West pursue?

I know my answer.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/563897-key-al-qaeda-branches-urge-united-jihadist-front-against-coalition