NASRALLAH  AND HEZBOLLAH..... LIKE A MOTH INTO THE FLAME

So, Hassan Nasrallah states Hezbollah is ready to “cooperate” against Israel?

Really?

And other than young men  who live off the emotions of fiery speeches, who does Nasrallah think buys this line?

Could it be true?

Could Hezbollah actually open a second front on the IDF?

Would they do this for the sake of the Sunni Radicals who may soon jump ship and side with the IS……the same IS that is fighting Hezbollah?

Is Hezbollah so worried of an IS takeover of Hamas’s youth that they would enter into this conflict knowing the IDF would destroy most of what they have left to defend Lebanon with  from the  assaults of the IS?

Is the theory, “help Hamas find off the IS takeover, even at the risk of a wider war”?

Does Hezbollah need a conflict right now with the IDF?

Why would such a thought even cross the mind of Nasrallah as he struggles to defend Lebanon from the IS?

Does any of this make sense?

Yep..

It does to me and for just the reasons I stated above!

That is, with one catch; Hezbollah will support Hamas with “words” and not guns.

Why would Nasrallah travel the path of destruction that has been apparently chosen by Hamas and Meshaal only to have the IS take hold in Lebanon after the IDF’s  crushing response?

Yesterday, I spoke of the desperation Hamas finds itself in.

Win a glorious fight with the IDF and keep the youth behind you or fall not to the IDF, but to the juggernaut called “ Islamic State”.

For years now, both Hezbollah and Hamas have witnessed the Sunni Radical elements fill the void of a collapsed nation……in Africa… In Yemen…..In Syria and now in Iraq.

Who cannot realize the same holds true for Lebanon and Gaza?

I once watched a moth that was so confused, so excited and so desperate to do something…anything as it flew around and around a bonfire’s flame that all of a sudden, it just flew right into the center of the fire!  It was gone before it knew what hit it.

Is Hezbollah flying around the flame of fear… the flame called Islamic State? 

ISIS IN GAZA… ONCE AGAIN…. “ I TOLD YOU SO” COMES TO MIND!

At the very beginning of the current confrontation between Hamas and Israel, I made the comment on just how dangerous this cycle of violence could become and why this time around it was going to be “different”.

Look at my post from Wednesday, July 9^th 2014.  “Fear is a weapon of Mass Destruction”.

So, cutting right to the chase; was I correct?

Does IS, formally known as ISIS, have its hands in the conflict inside of Gaza?

If so, why?

Well, it’s just for the reason I stated back on July 9^th; to take the advantage.

If you don’t believe it, then ask yourself why Hamas is so adamantly denying the IS statements?

Here is the larger question and the larger threat; what does the IDF think?

If IS is truly operating at some level inside Gaza, what does it mean for Hamas?

Does Hamas have to fight to the last man in order to keep the support of the very youth that must stand in front of the IDF?

 Does a “soft” compromise position lead to support for Hamas falling away?

Where would it go?

These are easy questions to ask and even easier to answer.

Hamas is in a fight to its death and they know it.

No escape route into the Sanai Desert.

No Syrian support.

Little support for a Hezbollah that is under doing everything in its power to stay afloat in Lebanon as it sends it’s young to the death fields of Syria.

Does Israel understand the danger of completely destroying Hamas?

What will replace it?

Fatah?

No.

The simple truth is, no one understands the dangers of a dysfunctional Hamas more than Israel.

Yet, does Israel understand Hamas could very well be in a position where they cannot come to the table and thus the decision has been made to neutralize their movement in Gaza completely?

Is this why the occupation of Gaza seems to be the default end state for this current conflict?

What options do Israel and Hamas really have?

Oh, by the way, Abbas would love nothing more than a destroyed Hamas.

Who can interject anything into this cycle of violence that would make a definable difference?

Turkey?

That’s the rumor, but I would put much stock in Turkey bringing anything to the table the Israelis are interested in.

Besides; the only message the Ottomans could spell out for Hamas is one that starts with the word, Compromise!

The concept of compromise is music to the ears of the IS.

Qatar?

Rumors fly on Qatar working with Turkey on a “compromise”.

Qatar; the country that is currently in a  less than favorable standing with the GCC…. A GCC that fears the IS nearly as much as they fear the Persians.

What would Qatar bring to the table?

What does Qatar offer Israel or Hamas?

A peace keeping force?

Money?

When Qatar rings the phone of Sisi, does he even answer?

Can Qatar get between the Israelis and Sis?

No!

Qatar may once again appear to trying to help, but right or wrong, very few in the region seem to want Qatar’s opinion.

Hamas must fight and they must continue to fight and as they fight, innocent civilians must be killed, hour by hour, day by day.

Hamas has been backed into a corner, not by the IDF; not by the GCC  or any of it’s old supporters.

Hamas is soon to be the latest victim of the phenomenon that is sweeping the region.

Islamic State!

IS seems to be the virus that no political doctor can find a cure for!

The infection is spreading and Gaza is the next victim.

http://www.vocativ.com/world/israel-world/isis-operating-gaza/?utm_campaign=June1&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=outbrain

MALAYSIA AIRLINES SHOT DOWN…. NOW WHAT?

Is anyone surprised this happened?

What is expected when unprofessional, untrained people, who dress like military members, but in reality have no true commonality with truly professional soldiers, gain access to highly sophisticated weapons?

Answer…. Innocent people are killed!

It’s one thing to understand these types of weapons could have fallen into the hands of rebels in the Ukraine, but it’s entirely another when we consider what has to take place in order to employ such sophisticated systems?

Who showed them how to properly activate the system?

Who showed them how to launch the system?

Did they find members from the Ukrainian forces that defected who had a working understanding of these systems?

Could it have been troops from the Crimean forces?

Could it have been Russian, “advisers”?

These are valid speculations, but let me pose a far more important question?

Who knew?

Who knew these weapons were not only in the hands of the Rebels, but who knew these weapons were operational and “active” in the area?

These systems have signatures that can be seen electronically by many modern military units.

So, let me cut to the chase.

Did the Russians know these systems were hot?

Did they instruct the Rebels on the fact they had to be aware of commercial airlines in the area?

What actions did the Russians take to insure the Rebels didn't make a tragic mistake with these highly capable weapons?

Oh by the way……. Who else should have known these systems were “hot” in the area?

Yep…. The West.

Now, back to the Russians.

The Rebels have been far from happy in the past few weeks with Russia.

It’s obvious the Tsar has changed his tactics on dealing with the Ukraine and the Rebel movement appears to have been abandoned much like the Kurds at the end of Desert Storm….Who did that one???? We know the Answer.

If the perception is the Russians pulled their support for the Rebels, then what did they do about the weapons that might create damage that would blow back on Russia?

Did they just leave the support lines and not think through the second and third order effects of events like today?

If that confuses anyone, then add this issue to the puzzle.

Are the Rebels operating from over the border?

Are the Rebels playing a version of Cambodia with Russian help?

Are they hiding behind the Tsar’s overcoat?

If they are, then today’s event is absolutely on the Tsar’s table and he knows it.

 And now, here is the question to end the day with.

What does anyone really do about it?

Do you lash out at the Tsar?

Has that ever worked in the past?

Do you use harsh words?

Has that ever worked?

What do you do about a group of Rebels who just might have the ability to do this again and again?

I bet I know the answer.

Russian forces are taking control of high altitude weapons systems and in fact, it is probably already over.

If the West knows that, and the real threat of these high altitude strikes are over, what really needs to be done about this event?

What can the West do that doesn't make it worse?

AGM-88s.. that’s what…. If a signal pops hot, hit it and hit it hard.

That is the message that will be heard in Moscow.

How will Moscow react to such a message?

Well, that is the difficult part!.

HAMAS AND THE CEASE-FIRE THAT NEVER WAS.

I've attached a good read, but it misses on a strategic point; President / General Sis!

Did Sisi set Hamas up for failure?

Yes.

Did Netanyahu know just how to play this setup?

You bet.

Think about it.

Why should Sis do anything to help the extension of the Muslim Brotherhood… Hamas…. The same group that has been killing his troops in the Sinai  for years…troops General Sisi commanded?

Several days ago, when I heard the comment Sisi was not willing to get involved,  I had to think to myself, “ here comes the trap”.

Why would Sisi not paint Hamas into a corner?

So he Proposes a cease fire that he knows Hamas will not accept and one he knows Netanyahyu will jump on; all the time both of them knowing Hamas would never accept.

The end result; Hamas is seen as the member who doesn't really want to end the conflict.

Abbas can’t stop Hamas from refusing the deal; thus the “cooperative  government” of the Hamas and Abbas is seen as a joke.

Does anyone think this was not Sisi’s plan the whole time?

Who has Sisi spent more time with?

The IDF that was stationed along the Sani when he was a young Captain, Major, LTC and COL… both of them responding to the same threat…. Hamas / Muslim Brotherhood smugglers and armed groups?

Who does Sisi know in the IDF?

What, behind the scene relationships exist and what level of communications are still taking place?

Why would Sisi not set up an environment where the IDF pounds Hamas and its armed support groups; the same groups that run amuck in Sinai, into the ground without Egypt having to spend a single bullet?

So, what does this all mean?

Is Hamas going to wait a day or two or three and then come back to the table; a table everyone knows was a  setup by Sisi?

Who tries their hand at Peacemaker this time?

The Ottomans?

What’s in it for them?

How does this negate the Kurd issue or the killing fields of Syria; the two things the Ottomans are really worried about?

It doesn't!

Will the IDF do the only thing that will actually end the rockets; a ground operation in Gaza?

Do they need to?

Do they have the will to do so?

If anyone thinks the death toll is high now!!!!!

Small rockets into Israel….. airstrikes in Gaza…

Terrified innocent people on both sides?

That seems to be the path chosen…for now.

SIDENOTE:

How is it the Hamas leadership can make the effort to build bunkers for its rockets and its leaders, but it leaves it Children on the surface of a hellhole?

THE PENDING GROUND OPERATIONS IN GAZA.

Well, those who have held out hope that a ground operation in Gaza will not take place, may be about to lose all hope.

Who’s fault will it be when it starts?

The IDF or Israeli policy towards a Palestinian state?

Hamas and the youthfulness of fighters who find excitement in destruction?

Who is to say, but this is what I know.

As is the story with every conflict that has ever taken place on this planet; those who are going to be dead tomorrow are alive right now!

They are praying and worrying and worst of all, comforting those too young to understand why this is all taking place.

The fact of the matter is, they are alive, at least for now!

Every memory, every conversation they have had will be gone the moment they are killed, by either side of this conflict.

This is not just the tragedy of the Israelis and the Palestinians; it’s the reality of every conflict taking place in the world……Africa, Mexico, Ukraine ect …ect…ect…

It seems senseless to sit here and contemplate how tragic this all is for after all, who is going to change any of it?

Here is yet another level of this nightmare called conflict / War!

Truly professional Military members are sickened by the concept.

If you’ve never been in the position of being a military member, then you may not believe me or you simply just won’t understand.

Tonight, and IDF pilot is hovering over a known target in Gaza, waiting for the orders to launch his or her weapons and all the time his or her mind is wondering….. .contemplating who will die….who will be inured.

Will it be just the enemy you were sent to kill?

Will it be those near that person or persons?

Who is having their last thought… their last conversation?

Who is down there that has little to nothing to do with what is going on?

Tonight, a young man stands next to a launcher, ready to fire a rocket somewhere into the night.

Where will it go?

Who will it kill?

A child?

A Mother?

Someone who has no ill feelings towards any Palestinian?

Is someone alive right now who will not be in a matter of minutes?

How does this impact the soul of any real human?

Yes… when you are tasked to kill……. You are burdened with knowing…contemplating and reflecting for the rest of your life!

War is not an exciting video game.

It is not a reason to have parades with bright colored flags!

It’s not a reason for inspiring speeches from wealthy political leaders.

War is the ugliest invention of man and it seems the addiction is just too strong to break.

So, tonight all over the world, wherever conflict is taking place, people are alive and tomomrow they will be dead!

An imperfect world I know.

Depressing?

Yes.

Avoidable?

I just wish we could figure out how?

We need large robots from space!!!!

We can’t Police ourselves.  

"Klaatu barada nikto"

HAMAS ROCKETS THAT HIT NOTHING…OR DO THEY?

It was nearly twenty-four years ago.

It was about 2am when the “ Alarm Red…. Condition Black alert sounded over the whole compound.

It was the second week of this nightly event and to my amazement, a simple handful of troops came out of their tents and headed for their concrete, makeshift, bunkers.

About two minutes into the alarms going off for the second time that night, I just happen to look up and noticed just how beautiful the night sky was.

As I was admiring the night sky, ignoring the Alarm like everyone else, I was blinded by the flash and the ear piercing roar only 50 yrds from where I was standing.

It was a Patriot Battery and it had just fired two rockets into the night sky.

I was sector Defense OIC and as such, I was probably the only one dressed sprinting for the nearest bunker tearing at my gasmask pouch in a full run!!!

I was just reaching for my handheld radio, that was completely useless given the level of sound from alarms going off all around me, and was about to ascertain the status of the “inbound” when a brilliant white flash over dilated my eyes in the dark of the night.

As I stood there wondering just how close that impact was, I shock-wave came ripping through the tents next to the bunker!

My command post bunker was about 200 yrds away from where I was standing and as I took off  running, with my mask nearly on correctly, my entire perspective of the war that was in week number two changed.

It was the second time in two weeks I had a true reminder where I was and what I was involved in.

Saddam had one goal every night; keep the pilots up….keep them running from their beds to their bunkers and wear them down mentally.

Trust me, after that event, we all knew it was working…..including the totally nude A10 pilots that came out of the shower tent in a dead sprint…..butt naked…. Yep.. no mask with them at all times…just like the rest of the troops who were in “rest cycle”.

Did Saddam’s plan work?

Some would say no…

The air campaign crushed his forces beyond anything anyone had ever witnessed in modern warfare.

I also remember a very heated argument over the amount of Maverick missiles being expended by week two on targets such as cactus and vehicles blown up days earlier.

I remember heading to the flight line on full response because a missile have fired off one of the A10s wings and lodged into the revetments surrounding the aircraft.

In both instances, the explanation was “fatigue”!

Was the fatigue from the tempo of the battle?

Maybe…probably.

Could these events been the result of random Scud shots into our Area, staggered all night long?

Well; I have my opinion.

So what does this have to do with anything?

What does this have to do with what is taking place in Israel tonight?

Let me ask a question to see if I can answer a question.

Is Hamas and its supporters truly disappointed with the inaccuracy of its rockets?

Do their rockets have to strike a viable target in order to be successful?

What is the definition of “successful”?  

Hamas fires a salvo and the IDF responds with a pounding for hours.

As soon as the jets clear the area, more rockets take to the sky!

What is the message and who is winning the war of wills and more importantly, who is winning the war of perception?

Are the people of Israel running for shelters all several times a night?

Are they just staying in the shelters?

How disruptive is this action to the rhythm of Israel?

Does Hamas and its supporters get a double strike when a dead child is shown on social media and international news networks?

It’s now day five, and the story from Hamas is this; “ we are still here and we can still strike back and we will not stop”!

So, does this moral victory mean the IDF will become more desperate and thus increase the death toll in Gaza?

Does this mean the world opinion will soon do as it did in  2006, 2008, 2012…. Turn on Israel?

Is  that turning of international opinion worth the price of young children  killed in the dust of concrete?

Is it worth the life long memories of hiding, both Israeli and Palestinian, as a child living in a hellhole called war?

War is a terrible trait of mankind and one that no child should see much less live through.

No; rockets don’t have to strike valued targets to give a desired effect.

A shot that misses is answered with a shot that kills those who are used to hide the weapons that are being used.

A shot that misses is answered by a military that is becoming more and more desperate to show its people they are capable of keeping them from staying in bomb shelters for the next few weeks.

Here is what it really means to both sides.

They are both pushing this tragic event to the very edge!

I said this conflict would be different and I sadly must admit, I may be more accurate than even I imagined. 

THE ISLAMIC STATE’S BATTLE WITH THE KURDS…WHO IS WORRIED?

Ok, before I get started, let me give a quick sanity check.

The Iranians are fighting the Sunni Radials in Iraq and Syria.

The Saudi’s are prepping to prevent these same Islamic State groups and their supporters from entering Saudi.

The Islamic State forces are battling Kurdish forces in Syria.

Turkey is supporting the Islamic State forces.

The Hezbollah forces of Lebanon, controlled by Iran, are battling the Islamic State groups in Syria as they prepare to defend their homeland, Lebanon.

Ok, who was it that said about a month ago that the then forces, then called ISIS, now called IS, were “ no real long-term threat to the region given their numbers and capabilities”?

Oh ya… I remember… It was the collection of Talking Heads, from the West!!!!!

For a group that was, “limited’ in their abilities, it seems they are fighting a four front war.

The last time I looked, the most modern militaries in the world could plan on executing a two front conflict.

So how is it this IS movement is executing a four front campaign?

Let me make something as clear as I can.

How worried do you thing moderates are on both sides, Sunni, Shia… Persian….Arab….Ottoman?

How worried are all of them of the movement none of them take credit for creating?

Remember what I just mentioned above; the Iranians and the Saudis are prepared to fight the same enemy!!!!!

Do you get the picture yet?

In classic warfare there is no better position to be in than that of being underestimated by one’s enemies!

Having said that, let me explain how vital this ongoing conflict between the Kurds and the IS forces has become.

Hands down, the most capable forces in the region, shy of the GCC and the IDF, of having a chance to defeat the IS in combat would be the Kurds.

Fearless and ruthless, trust me for I know!

Those that know the Kurds, the Turks, Egyptians, Jordanians, and the Iranians know the fighting skills  of the Kurds.

If the Kurds fall to the IS, the fear of their spread may become overwhelming.

What is left of the Iraqi forces will stand no chance and the forces of Jordan and Saudi will need to be doubled along the borders.

Assad will plead with his Persian Masters for even more reinforcements and those pleas will most likely fall on deaf ears.

If the Kurds are beating in battle by the forces of IS, then the new battle lines will only reach as far as Baghdad, what will be left of it by that time.

Tonight, as I contemplate the thoughts that must be going through the heads of some of IS enemies, I have to wonder what regional leaders were feeling when they riders came in a full gallop telling tales of Alexander’s march towards their lands?

Last night,  I eluded to the power of FEAR!

A defeat of the Kurds will strike a whole new level of FEAR in the minds of many in the region.

Someone, somewhere, and I bet I know where, is trying desperately to estimate the growing numbers of IS supporters.

As a movement grinds its way towards your country, city or town, how tempting it must be to the youth, with no future of a real life, to join the march?

The IDF / Hamas conflict is emotional and no one will argue that, but the real story is taking place in a separate region….a region named  Rojava!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/07/tastekin-rojava-strangle--kurdish-syria-isis-ypg-sunni.html