KERRY: MODERATE SYRIAN REBELS COULD HELP IN IRAQ? GOOD GRIEF!!!

Have you ever wondered why some people are appointed to the positions they work in?

I know, silly question, but this is a classic example of someone who doesn't even stop to realize how asinine   their statements sound to those caught in a crisis.

Syrian Sunni “moderate” Rebels?

You mean the same ones who for the fourth of fifth time in the past three years had their senior leaders kicked out for corruption?

You know, the same ones the US Department of State holds meetings with….drinks highballs with and then rushes to tell DC, “They may have a plan”!

Is Kerry talking about the same Syrian Rebel Moderates that can’t win a victory against Assad or the ISIS in Syria even when their families’ lives depend on it?

Let me guess, someone at  the US Secretary gave  a five minute briefing on the history of one of the tribes, such as the Jarba” and suddenly, the US State Department has a “plan”!

Can you just imagine the reaction of the people, the ones that even pay attention to what the US Department of State says, in Iraq when they heard this statement?

There is always one true way to consistently show one’s amateur viewpoint and that is to say something “official” and then realize just how moronic it was received.

I have to admit, I was almost going to write about the retired American General who commented the “worst was over in Iraq”, but then I came upon this story.

Yep, just when I thought I had a real winner  statement to talk about, Secretary Kerry sprinted across the finish line…. Not to be denied the title of Armature of the Day!!!

Good Grief!! 

Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

The US Department of State continues to sail the high seas with no clue where they are heading.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nowsyrialatestnews/553521-kerry-moderate-syria-rebels-could-aid-fight-on-iraq-jihadists

THE SKY’S OVER IRAQ…. A CIRCUS IN THE MAKING!

Well, anyone that has ever struggled with the issue of “air space coordination” must look at this scenario and head for the liquor cabinet.

Syrian Jets flown in Iraqi airspace as Iranian drones and cargo aircraft zip around the sky….all as the US  UAVs… F18’s and God only knows what else is in the same area.

Do you think anyone is allowing the US to control the airspace?

And now, “Used” Russian and Belarus fighters will be showing up?

Somebody toss a tent over this Circus!

Let’s talk about those “ Used Russian / Belarusian / fighters for a minute.

Who is going to be flying those missions?

What Iraqi pilot is qualified to fly combat sorties with these airframes?

What ground crews are prepared to service these aircraft?

Does this story seem just a little odd to anyone other than me?

When was this deal struck?

Did someone just happen to have a Wing or two of fighter aircraft sitting on a runway somewhere near by to sell?

Ok, if this didn't sound strange enough, let me toss another few points into the soup for everyone to consider.

How much longer before Saudi and Turkish or even Jordanian aircraft are in the mix?

Oh ya…. I forgot Egyptian and the cherry on the top….. IDF aircraft…drones… transports…

Man, what I wouldn't give to see the radar signatures of what is coming from where and what is going where….and you can bet the US forces there can see it all.

And what does this mean to the future of Iraq or Baghdad?

Nothing!

Syrian jets bomb a town on the Syrian border inside Iraq and who died?

Yep… Civilians.

If the ISIS and its allies can keep from form conventional movements as they advance, the ability of air-power to turn the tide of the conflict is practically nonexistent.

So, when the “fighters” show up in the “next few days”, who is flying them?

Whose armaments will be hanging off the wings of these fighters?

Whatever Mr Maliki was referring to today can only mean one thing; the crisis called Iraq is about to get a whole lot more complex.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28042302

KING ABDULLAH’S MEETING WITH THE TSAR’S AL CAPONE

King Abdullah has a sit down with one of the Tsar’s most valued Thugs…. Kadyrov?

Why?

Does the King believe Kadyrov holds the keys to keeping the ISIS rebels from moving on Jordan?

So, Kadyrov would do this out of the kindness of his heart?

What is this meeting all about, really?

If King Abdullah is worried about ISIS and their allies moving on Jordan, would he not turn to the GCC or Egypt?

What does this Chechen Black-market version of Al Capone have the King needs?

In all the actions of the Middle East over the past several years, I don’t know if any has been more intriguing than this one.

As for the King traveling there and not seeing the Tsar, well, he doesn't need to; his meeting was with the Tsar’s lead Henchmen.

 So, was the meeting with Kadyrov or was it a message process with the Tsar?

Who really gave the King any information he could use?

Does Kadyrov make international policy movies without the Tsar’s blessing?

What was the topic that kept the King and the Tsar from meeting?

I would love to hear the Saudi’s version of this meeting.

Rumors flew today of ISIS groups preparing to move on Jordan and it suddenly seems everyone in the region is in danger of falling to the Borg called ISIS.

Do elements of ISIS have dreams of moving on Jordan?

Probably.

Would the rest of the region stand by and let this happen?

No!

Even the US would draw the line in front of Jordan.

Ok, again; what does this guy bring to the table?

Let me take a shot at this one and I know many are going to read this and say, “he’s been drinking again”!

Here it is!

The Chechen fighters working with ISIS are actually working for the Tsar’s Thug!

Yep.. That is what I said.

Who did his Father fight with, for?

What is he?

Is he Chechen?

Is he Muslim?

Does the Tsar know this?

Does the Tsar want these Chechen Warriors, and trust me that is just what they are, plotting in Chechnya?

Deploy them.

Keep them occupied somewhere else.

Keep the price of oil on the world market above 100 dollars a barrel!

Keep the cash machine that is rebuilding the Russian Empire moving forward!

Sound crazy?

How well do you understand the mind of the Tsar?

Does anyone else believe this theory?

Why did the King go to meet him?

To ask for his help or to ask him what it would take to pull the most experienced fighters the ISIS owns away from their ranks before they move on Jordan!

Sound crazy?

Well,  I would be willing to bet you the Tsar and the GCC aren't laughing.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/jordan-abdullah-ii-chechnya-extremist-jihadists-threatening.html

IRAQ’S BATTLE FOR PERCEPTION IS ALREADY LOST

If reports of the main oil refinery at Baiji has truly been captured, even temporarily, then the battle, the battle for “Perception” is all but lost for the Iraqi government.

Stacked on top of that story is the possible pending capture of the dam at Haditha.

So, if you’re sitting in your house in Baghdad and you hear the government, what is left of it, telling its citizens not to fear for the city is safe, what do you believe?

When you wake in the morning, your neighbors warn you the gas lines are over a day long and that is if you have the gas to sit in line for a day to get a tank of gas!

As you talk to your neighbor, you hear the media talking about the US Secretary of State asking the Iraqi government to expedite some form of “coalition and you think to yourself, “Really…… do the Americans think the ISIS will settle for a “coalition government”?

By midday, you’ve heard once again the Iranian’s warn the US over involvement in the Iraqi crisis.

Ok, stop me when you start to get the picture!

What Iraqi citizen truly believes there is a way out of this?

At what point does staying in Baghdad become meaningless?

Does the ISIS and its supporters have to occupy Baghdad?

What Has Baghdad become?

The final sanctuary for the Shia?

Let’s face the truth, Baghdad in nearly under siege and the world knows it.

Rescue:

Who comes to the rescue?

Can Baghdad be rescued?

Is it the Iranians?

How do they achieve such a goal without killing thousands of trapped Shia Arabs, the same Shia Arab they claim to be protecting?

Is it the West?

Who?

The EU?

Not even close.

The US?

How?

As good as the US military is, can it conduct close order combat with citizens mixed in with the attackers?

How many citizens will that cost?

By the end of the day today, I heard the words I knew had to be coming from the so called “experts”…… Baghdad is where the Iraqi government, Shia will make their stand.

Two days ago, the message was, the assault to retake lost land was underway with busses stuffed full of eager young men fresh from marching up and down the street waiving privately owned weapons in the air.

Soon, those buses will encounter those who do not fear parades!

Tonight, I sit and wonder if the Battle of Baghdad is about to take place and something tells me that battle is already over!

The Shia must pray for one thing and one thing only…..over extension!

A battle hardened group is a very difficult adversary.

An overconfident force moving on an enemy that is far more capable than Iraqi’s is an entirely different story.

Will the ISIS move on Jordan, Kuwait or even Saudi.

In the history of conflict, overconfidence has gone hand in hand with disaster.

Iraq is all but lost, but what force will stop the ISIS.

Will Iran invade Iraq?

What seemed impossible just a few days ago is now on the table for consideration.

One group gets a vote on this issue and it is not the West.

Enter the GCC.

Yes.. Perhaps it’s time the GCC show the world a new day is coming in the Middle East.

Peace is not based on one religion or one sect.

Peace is a goal of all civilized people and perhaps someone is about to show they believe in being civilized.

THE PENDING BATTLE IN BAGHDAD??? IS IT REALLY GOING TO HAPPEN?

It seems the Sunni forces are still making advances towards Baghdad, or at least the media  paints that picture.

If the Shia are “rallying” by the thousands, then how could this be?

Let’s take a look at the details that are most likely being overlooked by those who claim to be “covering” the events in Iraq.

Here is a hint, you can be standing in front of something and still not see it or understand what it means.

A few days ago, I mentioned the difficulties the Sunni fighting groups will eventually face if they are triumphant in dividing Iraq.

Good governance does not come from the barrel of a gun!

Leading a nation is much more difficult than dividing one up.

But, I've already covered this topic and something else has to happen before any of this truly becomes an issue.

The Shia must be defeated in Baghdad and that battle, if it happens will not take place like anyone imagines.

Let me cover a few tenants of Conflict that will come into play if the Battle for Baghdad actually takes place.

FOG OF WAR:

Time and time again, we have heard how the standing Iraqi military outnumbers the ISIS and those supporting it.

Does anyone really know the numbers of the ISIS?

Have they changed since the conflict got underway?

Who knows what the real numbers are?

Where are they?

Are they preposition ed already inside of Baghdad waiting for the siege to begin?

What targets would these units have and how would the Shia holders of the city insure the world they can hold the city if this “inside” threat takes place.

Yes; the doctrinal definition of “Fog of War” has many variants and we will see them come to light with the pending events in Baghdad.

CLOSE ORDER COMBAT: 

Yes the Iraqi military has fixed wing and rotor wing support that has some level of precision weaponry, but are they good enough to take on an enemy that is intermingled with civilian populations clusters?

As advanced as this process has become with the US, it’s a constant fact that civilians are killed when an enemy mixes in with local civilian members.

If the battle for Baghdad takes place in the outskirts of the city, how does the Iraqi military avoid killing innocent members of its own population?  

Short answer; they don’t and that is exactly what the media will cover!

Now, the advantage in this possible pending battle goes to the Shia forces given they are once again supported by a universal law of combat; the Defender has a 3 or 4 to one advantage.

Here is the problem with that “theory”.

When the defender has less resolve than the aggressor, than that ratio must go even higher to hold true.

A battle hardened group versing a force  full of members who only days earlier where walking the streets as ordinary citizens brings the whole question of “advantage” into question.

Once again, let me go back to the issue of “inside” forces placed at strategic locations inside the city.

QUALITY OF FORCE:

What is the “quality” of the forces set to defend Baghdad?

What is the “quality” of the force moving on Baghdad?

One has had training with contracted firms in scripted exercises set to show their leaders, who spent a great deal of money, how combat ready they appear to be.

One has been in conflict inside of Syria for over three years with many seeing combat on an almost daily bases.

I think my point is made here, so let me move on.

UNITY OF EFFORT:

Are the Shia member from the border region of Iraq and Kuwait willing to be killed over a Northern oil field in the northern sections of Iraq… an oil operation that does nothing for the quality of life of those Southern Iraqi Shia members?

Are they willing to be killed for Western town they have never seen or never will?

Does the Sunni force marching on Baghdad intend to take control of Baghdad or force the current government from power?

Of the two groups, who is truly more “unified”?

RESOLVE:

Are the Shia united in their effort to save Iraq?

Are the two Heroes now inside of Baghdad singing off the same sheet of music?

Just how strong is the “unified effort” the Sunni force must break through?

Ok, by now, my point should be clear.

The battle for Baghdad, if it does come, will not go as the Shia who are parading in the streets hope it will.

They have the most difficult task of all; keeping the confidence of the public, a public that is watching the Sunni fighters continue to march forward toward Baghdad.

The Sunni force has the task of destroying the confidence not of the more elite forces the Shia will place in their path at the gates to Baghdad, but of the people who walk the streets of Baghdad.

If a true exodus begins, and actually one already has begun, then the Shia will have the tactical advantage of not having to fight door to door, killing their own people in the process.

An enemy “in the open”, in amongst buildings that are empty is a target for weapons designed to kill in mass and the Shia will use them.

Here is the endgame!

When that time comes, what is left of Baghdad?

What is left of the Iraqi government?

Google the city of Aleppo and look at how it appeared four years ago and then look at a picture of it from June  of 2014.

You will have your answer!

SECOND ORDER EFFECTS AND THE DREAM OF KURDISTAN!

Well, as expected, the issue of Kurdistan has popped to the forefront once again.

And what do you ask has brought this issue back on to the international table?

If you guessed the crisis in Iraq, you win the prize.

As I said last week, did anyone really believe the conflict between the Sunni and the Shia would not be leveraged by the Kurds?

Imagine the Kurdish forces sitting just outside of Mosul and Kirkuk  watching, once again, the Arab Shia and the Arab Sunni killing each other; depleting both of their abilities to challenge a pending Kurdish push into the region of Iraq and Syria they claim as their own.

It’s the same vision they had when the conflict in Syria started and it’s the same vision they counted on when they struck a “deal” with the Turkish government; the same Turkish government that hopped moving the Kurds into Northern Syria would alleviate the pressure in Turkey.

From the beginning, lest say back in 2003, some predicted the inevitable breakup of Iraq into Sunni, Shia and Kurdish regions.

If anyone still doesn't believe this can take place, then please expound on why it will not happen?

Well, before everyone jumps on board the “ I told you so” train, remember what I explained just a few nights ago.

It’s one thing to destroy, kill and rejoice in “victory” by firing weapons into the air, but it’s a far different story when the partying is over and it’s time to build a functioning society.

Yes, the Kurds have an advantage in this process given the oil that just so happens to be under the ground they claim.

But, what of the Sunni and Shia areas of Iraq?

Can they actually function as a separate state?

Can this “vision” the Sunni fighting groups really come into existence?

Can the Shia areas of Iraq avoid being nothing more than a territory of Iran?

Yes, all three seem to have a vision of what they want Iraq to become, but is any of it achievable?

Does reality factor into the process at any point in the near future?

To the West lays what was once known as Syria.

To the North stands the nation that no one wishes to recognize; Kurdistan.

To the East stands the Persian Kingdom ordering Arabs to kill Arabs all in the name of the same religion.

And to the South; well….. That is just about all that is left of what was once called, “”The Middle East”!

MUQTADA  AL-SADR  AND  QASEM   SOLEIMANI…

IS  THERE  ROOM  FOR  BOTH?

Why does it matter that Qasem Soleimani and Muotada al-Sadr have taken leading roles in the crisis in Iraq?

What point did I drive home the first night I addressed the events in Iraq?

What was it that made the Iraqi forces crumble and run away?

The lack of real leadership!!!!!

That is what these two bring to the event that Iraq is so despertly lacking.

Leadership and leadership that gives those who are virtually on the verge of defeat the hope, the inspiration to hang on.

Are both of these men enemies of the West?

To the Shia facing   the onslaught of the ISIS, do you really think that matters?

Soleimani is a proven War Hero for the Persians, one who earned his standing in the bloody conflict between Iran and Iraq!

Yes, I know; how ironic Soleimani, nearly mortally wounded in his battles with the Iraqi Army is not ridding to their rescue......such is the fate of Warriors.

Will Soleimani be able to hold Baghdad?

Will the Shia Militias follow him as they followed him in Syira?

Yes…. Soleimani has been pulled from the battlefields of Syria and no one understands that more than the Eye Doctor barricaded in Damascus.

Soleimani is a Master of his trade craft and he knows the arms taken by the ISIS from numerous Iraqi military outpost that have fallen will find their way back onto the battlefields of Syria.

I bet I know where the Syrian Air Force is concentrating their efforts as I write this post!

Soleimani, understands the price his campaign in Syria will pay and he knows in his heart the actions of the ISIS were created for just this reason.

He of all people realizes the assault on Iraq was based upon relief for the faltering Sunni offensive in Syria, yet as any loyal Military Leader does, he followed orders and moved on Baghdad.

Some men have the power to make other men hold fast just based on their name and Soleimani is such a man.

What the Shia have gained is hope…..hope based on having a real leader rally to front and command, “Stand Fast”…

So, that brings me to my next point.

What does the arrival of Soleimani mean to al-Sadr?

A Persian hero rides into Baghdad…one far more dynamic than even al-Sadr?

Is there room in this Iraqi conflict for two Heroes.. one .. Arab and one Persian?

When al-Sadr places his head on his pillow tonight, what does he dream of?

An Iraq under the command of the Persians?

Didn’t al-Sadr deliberately pull away from his once Persian Masters?

Is there room for al-Sadr and Soleimani?

Lets sit back and pay witness to yet another page of history for the nation once known as Iraq.