Tuesday, June 17, 2014



MUQTADA  AL-SADR  AND  QASEM   SOLEIMANI…
IS  THERE  ROOM  FOR  BOTH?

Why does it matter that Qasem Soleimani and Muotada al-Sadr have taken leading roles in the crisis in Iraq?

What point did I drive home the first night I addressed the events in Iraq?

What was it that made the Iraqi forces crumble and run away?

The lack of real leadership!!!!!

That is what these two bring to the event that Iraq is so despertly lacking.
Leadership and leadership that gives those who are virtually on the verge of defeat the hope, the inspiration to hang on.

Are both of these men enemies of the West?

To the Shia facing   the onslaught of the ISIS, do you really think that matters?

Soleimani is a proven War Hero for the Persians, one who earned his standing in the bloody conflict between Iran and Iraq!

Yes, I know; how ironic Soleimani, nearly mortally wounded in his battles with the Iraqi Army is not ridding to their rescue......such is the fate of Warriors.

Will Soleimani be able to hold Baghdad?

Will the Shia Militias follow him as they followed him in Syira?

Yes…. Soleimani has been pulled from the battlefields of Syria and no one understands that more than the Eye Doctor barricaded in Damascus.

Soleimani is a Master of his trade craft and he knows the arms taken by the ISIS from numerous Iraqi military outpost that have fallen will find their way back onto the battlefields of Syria.

I bet I know where the Syrian Air Force is concentrating their efforts as I write this post!

Soleimani, understands the price his campaign in Syria will pay and he knows in his heart the actions of the ISIS were created for just this reason.

He of all people realizes the assault on Iraq was based upon relief for the faltering Sunni offensive in Syria, yet as any loyal Military Leader does, he followed orders and moved on Baghdad.

Some men have the power to make other men hold fast just based on their name and Soleimani is such a man.

What the Shia have gained is hope…..hope based on having a real leader rally to front and command, “Stand Fast”…

So, that brings me to my next point.

What does the arrival of Soleimani mean to al-Sadr?

A Persian hero rides into Baghdad…one far more dynamic than even al-Sadr?

Is there room in this Iraqi conflict for two Heroes.. one .. Arab and one Persian?
When al-Sadr places his head on his pillow tonight, what does he dream of?

An Iraq under the command of the Persians?

Didn’t al-Sadr deliberately pull away from his once Persian Masters?

Is there room for al-Sadr and Soleimani?

Lets sit back and pay witness to yet another page of history for the nation once known as Iraq.



Monday, June 16, 2014



IRAN....IRAQ AND THE ENDLESS “PERCEPTION” PROBLEMS FOR THE WEST.

All the talk today seemed to center around the US “talking” with Iran over the crisis in Iraq.

Would that “talk” include the sharing of military operational issues?

I find that highly unlikely.

So, what would these “talks” truly center on?

Assurances the Persians will not totally exploit the situation to their own advantage?

Some in the US Department of State are most likely naive enough to believe such a commitment could be achieved, but I can assure you this level of conversation would come at a price the US may not understand.

What has been the number one concern with the GCC for the past three years when the Western partnership is mentioned?

If you guessed, the concept of “commitment”, you win the prize.

The phone rings in Riyadh and the conversation becomes, “the US is going to ‘talk’ to the Iranians over Iraq”!

“What are they going to talk about”?

“What are they going to tell us they are talking about”?

“Is that really what is taking place”?

If this conversation was taking place without the damage of the past few years, the strength of the ties might keep this event inside the world of the doable!

But, that is not the case and I have to wonder if anyone stopped to think what is the impact of yet another round of US / Iranian  “talks” and how would the GCC perceive the event?

Will the US / West / gain anything from “talking” to the Iranians?

Could it be the “talks” are a warning to not overextend the Persian response?

Given the status of the West / US / in the region, would the Persians even pay attention to such a message?

And, here goes another “what if”!

What if the strategy, one I would have trouble giving the West credit for, was to set up second front for Iranian forces?

Would the US risk the image of over ten years of conflict lost for the sake of letting the Iranians decide the fate of Iraq?

Just what is it the US and the Iranians are talking about?

Those in the area want to know and more importantly they want to believe whatever is discussed will not bring them harm.

Ok, will the Iranians openly deploy into the Iraq?

No…..at least not yet…..

Who would appose this event?

The GCC?

The West?

The Tsar?

I’ll give you a hint.

He commanded the Mehdi Army Miltia!!!!!

Yep….

I will give my reasons for believing this tomorrow.


Sunday, June 15, 2014



IRAQ AND THE TWILIGHT ZONE

Once again people like Fareed Zakaria rush to the smell of money and spurt out meaningless statements about an event, this time Iraq, as people like me sit back, listen and say, “ why does the media think if you have an Arabic name, you are automatically an ‘expert’ in the Middle East”?

George Bush???????

Really Fareed?

Did you attend the same international school of foreign affairs that Nancy Pelosi slept through?

Ok, I’m not going to waste anymore of my time on these paid talking heads…what they say is complete waste of time and time is not what the West  has to waste when it comes to the investment  made in Iraq.

Let me address the issue that seems to be the distraction of the day, and yes I said “distraction”.

Baghdad!

Are the troops that are loyal to Maliki capable of stopping the ISIS and “others” advance on Baghdad?

Yes, they have equipment and yes they are larger in numbers, but is that enough?

Talk today was centered on the “advance” being stopped north of Baghdad, or slowed according to whose reports you listen to.

Here is the hint to that report being accurate or not.

Do the Sunni groups desire to occupy Bagdad?

Do they wish to shove the Shia back into the East and South and have the Maliki government step down?

My bet is that is exactly what is taking place.

The Sunni groups are full of battle hardened Warriors with years of experience in Syria.

Yet, they have a few strategical challenges they have no history of overcoming.

1.      Their ranks have grown as they moved forward…those deciding at the last minute to change sides… join the wining team and it’s these new members, who are not known, not trusted and unproven in combat that must be dealt with…..do you keep them….kill them….turn them down…. The bottom line is , as they advance…they change…and dealing with that change is a dangerous issue.

2.     As is the case every time a revolutionary group strikes out to “change” the course of a nation or region, the devil is in the details!  How will you govern… who will run the utilities… who will keep the society moving back towards “normal”….what is “normal” under the oppressive mindset of the Sunni groups?   Yes,  killing and shooting and blowing things up is exciting to unemployed young men who have no vision of a real future for them…but when that is over…what is left?  Ask the Rebels who won in Libya?

3.     It’s one thing to speed down a highway in a Mad Max looking convoy…..stopping to get gas and post a few YouTube clips, but soon, perhaps today, the Iraqi forces, along with the Iranian units already with them…yes… you can bet on that one… they will force the Sunni groups into a conventional conflict….one that will require maneuver, communications…communications the Iranians will jam and monitor....logistical resupply and detailed planning to respond to a force that is in a defensive position and armed with standoff weapons. Yes…the initial Shock of the blitzkrieg forced the poorly trained and poorly lead forces in front of the movement to flee…but that has been the cycle of battle for thousands of years and that is the cycle that is taking place now in Iraq.

Bagdad will not fall to a insurgent Sunni force, but it may collapse, more than it has, under its own weight of incompetence.

In the Rubble, the ones that will pick up the pieces and put something back together again will be the Persians!

Ah yes… Once again… the Arabs will have to turn to the Persians for guidance and that always comes at a price.

Soon the machine of sending young Arab men from Iraq into the killing fields of Syria will crank back up…..soon… mothers and fathers and young wives will see their men being placed into the ground for the sake of the Persian vision for the region and the Eye Doctor Puppet that serves the Persian Masters.

Iraq is the new Syria and have no illusions that upsets the Iranians for it does not!

What is important to the Persians is the ability to operate from Syrian and Iraqi and Lebanese land and that doesn't require peaceful cities or a safe society.

Nations is crisis are nation willing to do your bidding.

Iraq has entered into the twilight zone and the Persians really don’t care.


Friday, June 13, 2014




ISIS’s MOVE ON IRAQ       AND AN AGE OLD NURSERY RHYME !!!

As I stated two days ago, it’s not worth the effort to rehash, the history of the ISIS and the like groups that are working with them.

How far are they going to get and what will they do with the areas they have taken?

Both are valid questions, but they don’t address the most important issue; why now?

What propelled the ISIS and those supporting them to make such a dramatic move and to make that move now?

If you’ve not heard it in the media world’s dramatic coverage of people running around screaming and driving off in a panic, then you can hear it here.

If you want to know why this event has taken place, you need look no further than the conflict in Syria.

Aleppo is the key to the resistance in Syria and has been from the early months of the Civil War.

As the Iranian support for Assad finally began to turn the tide, sealing off Lebanon with the support of Hezbollah, and the ability to hold onto Damascus with the help of Iraqi Shia militias, and finally a coordinated assault on Aleppo, the perception amongst the Rebels became, “the tide is turning….defeat is now likely”!

Last month, I spoke of the fatigue that seem to be setting into the Rebel mindset and how this pattern was a classical cycle of civil strife…..wait out your opponent until they have lost their zeal for support.

This is the course of action the Iranians took and it was a course of action the West supported.


So, what did the Sunni movement do?

Exactly what I predicted on this blog over a year ago; counter strike in Iraq!

Can Iran afford to support two current conflicts in geographically separated areas?

Can Hezbollah be counted on now expanded all the way over into Iraq?

The answer is no and the enemies of Iran know this all too well.

Will Iran perceive this action as a GCC sponsored action?

Absolutely.  

Is that perception based on reality?

Does it really matter?

Is the West willing to salvage Iraq?

No.

Do the Iranians understand this?

Yes.

Do the Turks understand this?

Yes.

Does the Tsar?

Oh ya….

Last but not least, what message does the West’s inaction signal to the GCC?

Oh ya… what does the Eye Doctor think of this event?

My hunch is he better hurry with his operations against Aleppo for the Tide me about to shift once again.

Now….. the Turks?

What does this all mean to them?

Are the nightmares of a Kurdistan creeping back into the dreams of Egodan?
Is there a grieving family member close by that his staff can beat up?

The Kurds?

Did this entire event play right into the hands of the Kurds?

Yes.

Did they see an event like this coming?

Yes.

Did they realize they could simply sit and wait for the Sunni Rebels to chase the Iraqi forces out of the area the Kurds wish to occupy?

Yep…why get your forces killed and be accused of being the aggressor when you can let it all take place by the hands of the Sunni?

The West?

Well, just another crisis the Progressive mindset will be completely incapable of dealing with.

The Tsar?

Interesting point to ponder here.

What options are on the table for the Tsar?

Come to the rescue of the Shia ?

What’s in it for the Tsar to do so?

Come to the aid of Iran?

What’s in it for the Tsar?

Sit back and watch the GCC wonder if they kicked a bee hive that may lead to them being stung to death?

Could it be the old nursery rhyme is about to come true?

 All the King’s Horses and all the King’s Men. Couldn’t put the Middle East back together again?  



Wednesday, June 11, 2014



THE DIVISION OF IRAQ…WHY IS ANYONE “SHOCKED”?

So, what “shocked” me today about the news from Iraq and the fall   of yet another major city; a city with significant military importance… not just Mosul, but Tikrit!

I tell you what shocked me; it was the people who looked into the lens and said, “I’m shocked at what has happened”!

Really??? Shocked?

If you were “shocked” by what is taking place in Iraq, then you need to back to watching reality TV or reading a good fiction book.

From day one, the false image  of a growing, modernizing Iraq Defense force was nothing more than a contractor’s dream….equipment… training… Billions. Billions of dollars and in the end, a force that takes off its uniforms and drives away from the very public it was sworn to protect.

I’m not going to travel down the worn out road of describing who the ISIS is or how they have grown to the point they could have pulled this off…well… how they pulled it off is something I will address simply because I want to.

As for who the ISIS is, I will leave that to the paid “talking heads” on the networks!

Instead, let me take the time to give my explanation, theory, as to how this happened so quickly and why the collapse of leadership in the so called Iraqi force took place in a matter of hours, not after days of sustained heavy combat.

Look, it’s truly just about this simple!

You can put new uniforms on a young man.

You can teach him how to march.

You can teach him how to almost take care of the weapon he is allowed to have, but usually without ammunition.

You can even teach him how to look Simi proficient in an exercise as his leadership and those who made money training them look on.

All of this will help you give the appearance of a force that is viable and may even instil some hope or pride in an uninformed public watching them march by.

But here is what you can’t buy from a contractor.

Here is what you can teach with one or two thirty minutes speeches given by a leader who wakes up at 1000am, shows up to his office at 1200…stays until 3pm and then leaves to “go to a very important meeting”!

Pride…. Honor…. Dignity…. Respect…. And most of all….Patriotisms!

If a soldier is a soldier because it’s one of the better paying jobs in the region…..a region that has few jobs by the failure of a corrupt and dysfunctional government, then who can expect that soldier to stand fast and give up their life for that government?

How does a soldier stand and fight for a leader they know is no leader?

What makes a unit take a stand in Mosul if they believe all that their leaders care about is gaining wealth and power?

Failure……. That is the end-state and those who put this force together, like some fictional fighting unit right out of central casting in Hollywood, knew it from day one; but then again…there was money to be made and never get in the way of making money when those who place money before pride, honor or their nation come to the table.
So, who were these ill prepared troops facing?

Are the ISIS members in Mosul for the money or social status?

Did they drive towards Tikrit for the sake of sacking the next bank full of US dollars?

What are they?

Are they fanatical fundamentalist?

Are they battle hardened warriors who have tested their metal time and time again on the battlefields of Syria?

Do they have leaders who are just as skinny as they are?

Do they have leaders who have been beside them in countless battles, many against a superiorly armed enemy utilizing ruthless tactics?

Do they follow their leaders because they only follow the same religious dreams?

Are you starting to understand the difference?

This was a clash of battle hardened units driving towards a group of well-dressed pretend soldiers with absolutely no professional leadership and no honorable government leading by example.

What other result could anyone have imagined?

The outcome was preordained for years….from the very day the fight in Syria became a Sectarian conflict……The Persians knew it…..the Ottomans knew it and yest… the West knew it!!!

Before I let this topic go and begin to think about how to address what might be ahead for Iraq, let me ask a simple question that once again, I’ve not heard the “Professional Media” and all their talking heads address.

How is it, that the most modern intelligence apparatus  in the world, accompanied by the one of the best human intelligence machines in the world….hint … I’m talking about the US and the Iranians here…. Cold not detect a force of this nature closing on Mosul?

Was this truly a “surprise”?

Was everyone truly “shocked”?

Or, did the progressive West....once again…just hoped this would all go away?

How could this happened?

Shocked?

I don’t think so!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/iraq-nineveh-fall-reasons-reactions.html

Monday, June 9, 2014



THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES’ COMPULSORY CONCEPT
"PRIDE... THAT IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!

Last night, I ended my comments by stating two questions:

  1.  How do you make a compulsory system work?
  2. Is it the right thing to do?

Let me start tonight with a caveat to both questions.

How do  you make such a concept work in the Middle East / GCC?

Is it the right thing to do in the UAE or any other GCC member state?

Before I travel down the path of how to make it work, let me take on the caveat part of the first question.

Does a compulsory concept require a different approach than in other parts of the world?

Here is the hint, the wealth of the nation will have an impact on the success of the process, if the target audience groups are youthful citizens of the UAE.

Does social standing lead to a separation of expectations and more importantly, should it?

Can the government hold to the standards set forth in the new law?

Simply put; can the rules apply to everyone without obvious “exceptions”…..exceptions that will become visible to everyone paying attention?

Ok, I won’t beat around the bush!

This concept must start from a standard that cannot be compromised….the “playing field” must be as level as humanly possible, or failure is the future that will become unavoidable.

The fact that some categories have different time requirements is salable to the public as long as the government has a sound explanation as to how these timelines were developed.

It’s the age old truism of, people can accept bad news as long as bad news is explained in detail and shared at a level that is understood, and given by a leadership that is based on honor.

So, can a compulsory concept work in the UAE ?

Yes, but with strong caveats and standards abided by from day one!

Ok, with that question out of the way, let’s see if I can paint a picture of what it will take to be successful in this extraordinary adventure.

Last week, I addressed the issues Saudi faced with its new, ambitious vision for the future of its military.

Several of those concepts will be expanded upon as I spell the plan for success.

People:

The ground truth about this journey is the fact that the people who make up the initial training and the first operational, compulsory based units will set the stage for future success or failure.

Everyone within a certain category “must” be eligible to serve, but does that require all of them must serve?

If you are eligible, does that guarantee you will serve?

The Vetting Process:

A group of “recruits” are assembled at  a processing center.

What actions take place to insure these citizens are worthy of the prideful act of wearing the Uniform of the country they belong to?

How does the country insure the right person is being trained to fill the right job?

Does a mass production line concept work?

No!

The right people for the right job with the right training, linked with the right organization; that’s a cornerstone that must be placed from the very beginning.
Are there those who will be thanked for their reporting to duty, but sent home for the right reasons?

Yes.

Here is the dangerous sticking point.

As was the case in the US and other Western nations, this “excuse …medical… emotional ect..ect…ect… cannot be the backdoor for letting influential members escape their duty to the nation.

Honest evaluation with a rejection plan based on compassion and integrity is critical to keeping the honor of the military process.

Simply put; those who are turned away, must be turned away with dignity or better yet, given options to serve in other capacities.

Word of mouth travel fast and in the age of social media, that word travels around the world in a matter of minutes.

Perception is reality until large sums of time, energy and funds are expended to disprove a false impression.

So, the people and the vetting of those people is more than important, it’s as I said, the cornerstone!

Training:

To be honest with my readers, the training part of this plan, as I read it in the media, a dangerous way to get one’s information I know, is more than a little concerning.

When I look at how the training aspects of a modern military changed over the thirty-two years of my military life, I have to wonder what expectations the UAE military will have of members who server months rather than years?

Short-term training based on simplistic task is a possible fit unit members who will have limited roles in a military unit.

Here is the historical problem with that process; short-term members equates into expensive, labor intensive, repetitive training.

If something is relatively “ cheap” to achieve, but you must do it over and over again, the true cost is much higher than anticipated.

Along with that economic fact is the issue of quality.

High turnover often goes hand in hand with low productivity.

If a “cook” is given two months of military training, paid low wages, given rank that is lacking respect, then how vulnerable is that position to corruption and or low productivity?

Is a chain stronger than its weakest link?

No.

If a unit has members who are there because they were made to be there and they were given minimum respect and nearly no admiration, how vulnerable is that unit?

How effective is that unit in time of crisis?

I spent many of nights taking the time to insure the TCNs / Third Country Nationals / who worked in my chow halls understood the value I placed on them…. I shook their hands…laughed with them…ate with them…..I gave them the respect I knew they were looking for and in the end, they kept my people safe……

Teaching these qualities……the ability to make leaders understand the importance of “short-term” members… members who are not assigned the glorious jobs… that is just one level of training that is seldom factored into the process.

Training is the next cornerstone that will insure a sound foundation, a foundation that leads to a military strong at all points of contact.

In short, training must hold the same value, dignity and honor at all levels and cannot rest with just those chosen to lead.

Get this wrong, and the process becomes a waste of national treasure both in terms of funds and more importantly in terms of dignity.

My parting comment on this topic…. When it comes time to take the unit picture…give out the unit award… find the simple member…. Stick them up front and ask them to smile….. trust me….it never failed me in over thirty-two years… money is not always the only thing the followers are looking for.

Exposure:

Here comes one of the hardest parts for leadership to attempt, especially those who worry about their own careers more than the ability of those they command to execute their mission.

Build a unit, train them, equip them, make them understand the vision of leadership and then give them a hill to climb!

Put them to the test and make that “test” real.

Make that test challenge their skills and more importantly, make it put their honor on the line.

Yes, viable, evaluations, away from home and against odds they never thought they would see.

This is the test of their metal… this will make them understand there is more at stake than just their individual respect.

Pride….Test their pride and test it at a level beyond their expectations.

This is the unique aspect  of the United States Military…. It’s ability to truly test it’s members and make them risk all they have worked for.

Do this  and in the end, every unit in the UAE military will be stronger, smarter, faster and yes… they will believe….they will believe in their “unit”!

You see…… this is the goal… this is the end-state of what the government is looking for…. a youth that has pride.. pride in their accomplishments….pride in their unit and last but not least….pride in the nation they represent!!!

There is no Arab Spring when “Pride” is the cornerstone of a nations youth!

  


Sunday, June 8, 2014



THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.. COMPULSORY SERVICE?
THE FOG OF WAR ON A DIFFERENT LEVEL.

In the continuing conversation over the future of the Gulf Region’s ability to defend itself, does this move by the UAE add the next chapter?
Most likely the answer is yes.

So, how long was this plan been in the developmental phase and why does that question matter?

 Nearly four years ago, the events of the Arab Spring, Tunisian Virus, yes…. I still use that term, began to change the landscape of the entire region.

A traumatic event for Gulf Leadership as well as the Persian Capital, the Ottomans and the Historical Giant named Egypt????? You bet!!!!

And as they all stood watching this Social Media born virus spread, those leaders who had been sworn to the West would stand by them no matter what, began to see reality setting in……the reality of Progressive government in the US.

Now, back to the question at hand.

Is this when the concept of compulsory service came to life for the UAE?

Had it been considered in the past?

Most likely?

Was the idea never truly popular?

Did the concept ever get passed the initial briefing?

Did anyone or any organization every truly look at what social events would have to prepared to make such a process truly work?

Let me readdress the question.

If the past five or six years have been spent getting this concept truly ready, then a real change may be about to take place.

If this is a knee-jerk, have baked concept that was sold to the UAE by those trying to sell them yet another magic cure for preventing the Tunisian Virus… Arab Spring or worse as an answer to West support leaving the region…..well….. that will show sooner than they hope.

Whose idea was it and more importantly, what issue does the concept address?

Is there greater buy in to the policies of the standing government when its population is placed in compulsory service?

Does this action lead to a stronger nation?

Well, back to my original point, it depends on how well it was planned.

What issues am I addressing when I talk of “planning”?

How do you build such a compulsory process?

Here is the next key question; who helped UAE set this course of action?

Whose fingerprints are on this plan, and what was the end-state of those who had influence on the development?

Was it Saudi and was it part of the Master Plan to truly develop a GCC force capable of defending the members?

Was it a masterful contracting feat pulled off by those who will charge Billions to “Insure” success?

Ok, what is my opinion of what is taking place here?

Look, the GCC and “others” are worried, some are more than worried, about the changes taking place and who is walking away or worse, changing sides?

Can any government in the region simply stand around and let the survival of their government rest on hollow words from Western governments?

No.

So, is this part of the “change process?”

Yes!

Was it well thought out?

Time will tell.

Will UAE and others in the region spends Billions to find the answers that will keep their forms of government safe?

Yes….Billions and Billions… and that is why every good idea someone or some corporation can possibly come up with will be pitched and pitched hard.

The “Fog of War”… this time the Fog of War is trying to find out what will really work and what will just be the sound of Billions flying out of the bank accounts.

What does it take to make this compulsory process work?
Better yet…. Is it the right thing to do?

I will answer both questions to the best of my ability over the next few days.



https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/gulfnews/550338-uae-brings-in-military-service