ISIS’s MOVE ON IRAQ       AND AN AGE OLD NURSERY RHYME !!!

As I stated two days ago, it’s not worth the effort to rehash, the history of the ISIS and the like groups that are working with them.

How far are they going to get and what will they do with the areas they have taken?

Both are valid questions, but they don’t address the most important issue; why now?

What propelled the ISIS and those supporting them to make such a dramatic move and to make that move now?

If you’ve not heard it in the media world’s dramatic coverage of people running around screaming and driving off in a panic, then you can hear it here.

If you want to know why this event has taken place, you need look no further than the conflict in Syria.

Aleppo is the key to the resistance in Syria and has been from the early months of the Civil War.

As the Iranian support for Assad finally began to turn the tide, sealing off Lebanon with the support of Hezbollah, and the ability to hold onto Damascus with the help of Iraqi Shia militias, and finally a coordinated assault on Aleppo, the perception amongst the Rebels became, “the tide is turning….defeat is now likely”!

Last month, I spoke of the fatigue that seem to be setting into the Rebel mindset and how this pattern was a classical cycle of civil strife…..wait out your opponent until they have lost their zeal for support.

This is the course of action the Iranians took and it was a course of action the West supported.

So, what did the Sunni movement do?

Exactly what I predicted on this blog over a year ago; counter strike in Iraq!

Can Iran afford to support two current conflicts in geographically separated areas?

Can Hezbollah be counted on now expanded all the way over into Iraq?

The answer is no and the enemies of Iran know this all too well.

Will Iran perceive this action as a GCC sponsored action?

Absolutely.  

Is that perception based on reality?

Does it really matter?

Is the West willing to salvage Iraq?

No.

Do the Iranians understand this?

Yes.

Do the Turks understand this?

Yes.

Does the Tsar?

Oh ya….

Last but not least, what message does the West’s inaction signal to the GCC?

Oh ya… what does the Eye Doctor think of this event?

My hunch is he better hurry with his operations against Aleppo for the Tide me about to shift once again.

Now….. the Turks?

What does this all mean to them?

Are the nightmares of a Kurdistan creeping back into the dreams of Egodan?

Is there a grieving family member close by that his staff can beat up?

The Kurds?

Did this entire event play right into the hands of the Kurds?

Yes.

Did they see an event like this coming?

Yes.

Did they realize they could simply sit and wait for the Sunni Rebels to chase the Iraqi forces out of the area the Kurds wish to occupy?

Yep…why get your forces killed and be accused of being the aggressor when you can let it all take place by the hands of the Sunni?

The West?

Well, just another crisis the Progressive mindset will be completely incapable of dealing with.

The Tsar?

Interesting point to ponder here.

What options are on the table for the Tsar?

Come to the rescue of the Shia ?

What’s in it for the Tsar to do so?

Come to the aid of Iran?

What’s in it for the Tsar?

Sit back and watch the GCC wonder if they kicked a bee hive that may lead to them being stung to death?

Could it be the old nursery rhyme is about to come true?

 All the King’s Horses and all the King’s Men. Couldn’t put the Middle East back together again?  

THE DIVISION OF IRAQ…WHY IS ANYONE “SHOCKED”?

So, what “shocked” me today about the news from Iraq and the fall   of yet another major city; a city with significant military importance… not just Mosul, but Tikrit!

I tell you what shocked me; it was the people who looked into the lens and said, “I’m shocked at what has happened”!

Really??? Shocked?

If you were “shocked” by what is taking place in Iraq, then you need to back to watching reality TV or reading a good fiction book.

From day one, the false image  of a growing, modernizing Iraq Defense force was nothing more than a contractor’s dream….equipment… training… Billions. Billions of dollars and in the end, a force that takes off its uniforms and drives away from the very public it was sworn to protect.

I’m not going to travel down the worn out road of describing who the ISIS is or how they have grown to the point they could have pulled this off…well… how they pulled it off is something I will address simply because I want to.

As for who the ISIS is, I will leave that to the paid “talking heads” on the networks!

Instead, let me take the time to give my explanation, theory, as to how this happened so quickly and why the collapse of leadership in the so called Iraqi force took place in a matter of hours, not after days of sustained heavy combat.

Look, it’s truly just about this simple!

You can put new uniforms on a young man.

You can teach him how to march.

You can teach him how to almost take care of the weapon he is allowed to have, but usually without ammunition.

You can even teach him how to look Simi proficient in an exercise as his leadership and those who made money training them look on.

All of this will help you give the appearance of a force that is viable and may even instil some hope or pride in an uninformed public watching them march by.

But here is what you can’t buy from a contractor.

Here is what you can teach with one or two thirty minutes speeches given by a leader who wakes up at 1000am, shows up to his office at 1200…stays until 3pm and then leaves to “go to a very important meeting”!

Pride…. Honor…. Dignity…. Respect…. And most of all….Patriotisms!

If a soldier is a soldier because it’s one of the better paying jobs in the region…..a region that has few jobs by the failure of a corrupt and dysfunctional government, then who can expect that soldier to stand fast and give up their life for that government?

How does a soldier stand and fight for a leader they know is no leader?

What makes a unit take a stand in Mosul if they believe all that their leaders care about is gaining wealth and power?

Failure……. That is the end-state and those who put this force together, like some fictional fighting unit right out of central casting in Hollywood, knew it from day one; but then again…there was money to be made and never get in the way of making money when those who place money before pride, honor or their nation come to the table.

So, who were these ill prepared troops facing?

Are the ISIS members in Mosul for the money or social status?

Did they drive towards Tikrit for the sake of sacking the next bank full of US dollars?

What are they?

Are they fanatical fundamentalist?

Are they battle hardened warriors who have tested their metal time and time again on the battlefields of Syria?

Do they have leaders who are just as skinny as they are?

Do they have leaders who have been beside them in countless battles, many against a superiorly armed enemy utilizing ruthless tactics?

Do they follow their leaders because they only follow the same religious dreams?

Are you starting to understand the difference?

This was a clash of battle hardened units driving towards a group of well-dressed pretend soldiers with absolutely no professional leadership and no honorable government leading by example.

What other result could anyone have imagined?

The outcome was preordained for years….from the very day the fight in Syria became a Sectarian conflict……The Persians knew it…..the Ottomans knew it and yest… the West knew it!!!

Before I let this topic go and begin to think about how to address what might be ahead for Iraq, let me ask a simple question that once again, I’ve not heard the “Professional Media” and all their talking heads address.

How is it, that the most modern intelligence apparatus  in the world, accompanied by the one of the best human intelligence machines in the world….hint … I’m talking about the US and the Iranians here…. Cold not detect a force of this nature closing on Mosul?

Was this truly a “surprise”?

Was everyone truly “shocked”?

Or, did the progressive West....once again…just hoped this would all go away?

How could this happened?

Shocked?

I don’t think so!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/iraq-nineveh-fall-reasons-reactions.html

THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES’ COMPULSORY CONCEPT

"PRIDE... THAT IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!

Last night, I ended my comments by stating two questions:

1.  How do you make a compulsory system work?
2. Is it the right thing to do?

Let me start tonight with a caveat to both questions.

How do  you make such a concept work in the Middle East / GCC?

Is it the right thing to do in the UAE or any other GCC member state?

Before I travel down the path of how to make it work, let me take on the caveat part of the first question.

Does a compulsory concept require a different approach than in other parts of the world?

Here is the hint, the wealth of the nation will have an impact on the success of the process, if the target audience groups are youthful citizens of the UAE.

Does social standing lead to a separation of expectations and more importantly, should it?

Can the government hold to the standards set forth in the new law?

Simply put; can the rules apply to everyone without obvious “exceptions”…..exceptions that will become visible to everyone paying attention?

Ok, I won’t beat around the bush!

This concept must start from a standard that cannot be compromised….the “playing field” must be as level as humanly possible, or failure is the future that will become unavoidable.

The fact that some categories have different time requirements is salable to the public as long as the government has a sound explanation as to how these timelines were developed.

It’s the age old truism of, people can accept bad news as long as bad news is explained in detail and shared at a level that is understood, and given by a leadership that is based on honor.

So, can a compulsory concept work in the UAE ?

Yes, but with strong caveats and standards abided by from day one!

Ok, with that question out of the way, let’s see if I can paint a picture of what it will take to be successful in this extraordinary adventure.

Last week, I addressed the issues Saudi faced with its new, ambitious vision for the future of its military.

Several of those concepts will be expanded upon as I spell the plan for success.

People:

The ground truth about this journey is the fact that the people who make up the initial training and the first operational, compulsory based units will set the stage for future success or failure.

Everyone within a certain category “must” be eligible to serve, but does that require all of them must serve?

If you are eligible, does that guarantee you will serve?

The Vetting Process:

A group of “recruits” are assembled at  a processing center.

What actions take place to insure these citizens are worthy of the prideful act of wearing the Uniform of the country they belong to?

How does the country insure the right person is being trained to fill the right job?

Does a mass production line concept work?

No!

The right people for the right job with the right training, linked with the right organization; that’s a cornerstone that must be placed from the very beginning.

Are there those who will be thanked for their reporting to duty, but sent home for the right reasons?

Yes.

Here is the dangerous sticking point.

As was the case in the US and other Western nations, this “excuse …medical… emotional ect..ect…ect… cannot be the backdoor for letting influential members escape their duty to the nation.

Honest evaluation with a rejection plan based on compassion and integrity is critical to keeping the honor of the military process.

Simply put; those who are turned away, must be turned away with dignity or better yet, given options to serve in other capacities.

Word of mouth travel fast and in the age of social media, that word travels around the world in a matter of minutes.

Perception is reality until large sums of time, energy and funds are expended to disprove a false impression.

So, the people and the vetting of those people is more than important, it’s as I said, the cornerstone!

Training:

To be honest with my readers, the training part of this plan, as I read it in the media, a dangerous way to get one’s information I know, is more than a little concerning.

When I look at how the training aspects of a modern military changed over the thirty-two years of my military life, I have to wonder what expectations the UAE military will have of members who server months rather than years?

Short-term training based on simplistic task is a possible fit unit members who will have limited roles in a military unit.

Here is the historical problem with that process; short-term members equates into expensive, labor intensive, repetitive training.

If something is relatively “ cheap” to achieve, but you must do it over and over again, the true cost is much higher than anticipated.

Along with that economic fact is the issue of quality.

High turnover often goes hand in hand with low productivity.

If a “cook” is given two months of military training, paid low wages, given rank that is lacking respect, then how vulnerable is that position to corruption and or low productivity?

Is a chain stronger than its weakest link?

No.

If a unit has members who are there because they were made to be there and they were given minimum respect and nearly no admiration, how vulnerable is that unit?

How effective is that unit in time of crisis?

I spent many of nights taking the time to insure the TCNs / Third Country Nationals / who worked in my chow halls understood the value I placed on them…. I shook their hands…laughed with them…ate with them…..I gave them the respect I knew they were looking for and in the end, they kept my people safe……

Teaching these qualities……the ability to make leaders understand the importance of “short-term” members… members who are not assigned the glorious jobs… that is just one level of training that is seldom factored into the process.

Training is the next cornerstone that will insure a sound foundation, a foundation that leads to a military strong at all points of contact.

In short, training must hold the same value, dignity and honor at all levels and cannot rest with just those chosen to lead.

Get this wrong, and the process becomes a waste of national treasure both in terms of funds and more importantly in terms of dignity.

My parting comment on this topic…. When it comes time to take the unit picture…give out the unit award… find the simple member…. Stick them up front and ask them to smile….. trust me….it never failed me in over thirty-two years… money is not always the only thing the followers are looking for.

Exposure:

Here comes one of the hardest parts for leadership to attempt, especially those who worry about their own careers more than the ability of those they command to execute their mission.

Build a unit, train them, equip them, make them understand the vision of leadership and then give them a hill to climb!

Put them to the test and make that “test” real.

Make that test challenge their skills and more importantly, make it put their honor on the line.

Yes, viable, evaluations, away from home and against odds they never thought they would see.

This is the test of their metal… this will make them understand there is more at stake than just their individual respect.

Pride….Test their pride and test it at a level beyond their expectations.

This is the unique aspect  of the United States Military…. It’s ability to truly test it’s members and make them risk all they have worked for.

Do this  and in the end, every unit in the UAE military will be stronger, smarter, faster and yes… they will believe….they will believe in their “unit”!

You see…… this is the goal… this is the end-state of what the government is looking for…. a youth that has pride.. pride in their accomplishments….pride in their unit and last but not least….pride in the nation they represent!!!

There is no Arab Spring when “Pride” is the cornerstone of a nations youth!

  

THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES.. COMPULSORY SERVICE?

THE FOG OF WAR ON A DIFFERENT LEVEL.

In the continuing conversation over the future of the Gulf Region’s ability to defend itself, does this move by the UAE add the next chapter?

Most likely the answer is yes.

So, how long was this plan been in the developmental phase and why does that question matter?

 Nearly four years ago, the events of the Arab Spring, Tunisian Virus, yes…. I still use that term, began to change the landscape of the entire region.

A traumatic event for Gulf Leadership as well as the Persian Capital, the Ottomans and the Historical Giant named Egypt????? You bet!!!!

And as they all stood watching this Social Media born virus spread, those leaders who had been sworn to the West would stand by them no matter what, began to see reality setting in……the reality of Progressive government in the US.

Now, back to the question at hand.

Is this when the concept of compulsory service came to life for the UAE?

Had it been considered in the past?

Most likely?

Was the idea never truly popular?

Did the concept ever get passed the initial briefing?

Did anyone or any organization every truly look at what social events would have to prepared to make such a process truly work?

Let me readdress the question.

If the past five or six years have been spent getting this concept truly ready, then a real change may be about to take place.

If this is a knee-jerk, have baked concept that was sold to the UAE by those trying to sell them yet another magic cure for preventing the Tunisian Virus… Arab Spring or worse as an answer to West support leaving the region…..well….. that will show sooner than they hope.

Whose idea was it and more importantly, what issue does the concept address?

Is there greater buy in to the policies of the standing government when its population is placed in compulsory service?

Does this action lead to a stronger nation?

Well, back to my original point, it depends on how well it was planned.

What issues am I addressing when I talk of “planning”?

How do you build such a compulsory process?

Here is the next key question; who helped UAE set this course of action?

Whose fingerprints are on this plan, and what was the end-state of those who had influence on the development?

Was it Saudi and was it part of the Master Plan to truly develop a GCC force capable of defending the members?

Was it a masterful contracting feat pulled off by those who will charge Billions to “Insure” success?

Ok, what is my opinion of what is taking place here?

Look, the GCC and “others” are worried, some are more than worried, about the changes taking place and who is walking away or worse, changing sides?

Can any government in the region simply stand around and let the survival of their government rest on hollow words from Western governments?

No.

So, is this part of the “change process?”

Yes!

Was it well thought out?

Time will tell.

Will UAE and others in the region spends Billions to find the answers that will keep their forms of government safe?

Yes….Billions and Billions… and that is why every good idea someone or some corporation can possibly come up with will be pitched and pitched hard.

The “Fog of War”… this time the Fog of War is trying to find out what will really work and what will just be the sound of Billions flying out of the bank accounts.

What does it take to make this compulsory process work?

Better yet…. Is it the right thing to do?

I will answer both questions to the best of my ability over the next few days.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/gulfnews/550338-uae-brings-in-military-service

THE 5 STEPS TO MAKING A GCC FORCE!

So, last night I ended with the promise of painting the picture of how the GCC could actually develop a viable multinational, joint fighting force.

Does that sound like a tall order?

You bet it is.

It’s a tall order even for modern, Western nations who have attempting to perfect the “Joint” business of military operations for decades now.

Does that mean it’s nearly impossible for the GCC nations to achieve this mystical goal?

Not impossible, but just about as close as they can possibly get.  

Having said that, let’s get down to how it might be achieved.

With an issue as complicated as this one, the process will have to be approached in a phased manner both in terms of time and expectations.

STEP 1:

Limit Expectations:

What strategic vision is truly the “joint vision” of the nation’s wishing to achieve this goal?

If Saudi is the only visionary allowed to develop what the military endstate should be, then the process will fail from the very beginning.

Yes, it may take time to fail, but never doubt the fact that it will fail.

So, the issue of “limiting expectations” applies to guess whom…..yep… Saudi.

Saudi must insure this endeavor is the product of “joint vision” and developing that “Joint Vision” is honestly the most difficult of all the task.

The most difficult not only because of the “joint” requirement, but because without this goal being achieved, the process fails regardless of the amount of money spent.

STEP 2:

Share the growth:

If five years from now, the Saudi slice of this vision is miles ahead of the other “partners”, then “joint” will no longer be achievable.

Here is the challenge for Saudi and here is the lesson they have struggled to learn in the past…..Peninsula Shield is the glaring example.

The process of procurement, training and exercising is the most advanced with Saudi and the natural, unintended tendency will be to move forward at a pace the others are not prepared to keep up with.

Come exercise time, as scripted as they may be, if the Saudi slice of the force sticks out, the honor factor of being a “partner” will vanish.

Now, the natural tendency, as of today, in the region is to look far better than you really are and that is truly how most of the modern militaries in the world quietly see exercises the GCC takes part in.

If the first team that drives, flies or walks by, looks somewhat formidable and then the rest seem clean  but fake, then the “jointness” is gone.

In the review stands sits the leaders of the 2^nd / 3^rd place forces and in their minds they only worry of looking fake or worse, silly!

Sound crazy?

I can assure you it’s what takes place.

So, what needs to take place is the Saudi contingent remaining vigilant to the issue of out shinning the “Joint Partners”.

This vigilance must take place at every level….procurement.. training… exercise and evaluation.

Break this code and yes…….. the vision falls apart!

STEP 3:

Integrity:

 Ok, here comes so of the ugliest comments that must be made if anyone in the GCC wants to truly be successful in this project.

Kickbacks… graft… corruption, “what’s in it for me?..... How do I get rich / powerful / influential / based on what my country is spending BILLIONS on”?

Those are the statements that must be eliminated.

Those are the mindsets that must be swept to the side.

These are the personalities that cannot be allowed to take part in this journey!

How difficult is that to achieve?

So hard, so impossible that even the modern Western military industrial complex is virtually controlled by the same curse.

Can those who are empowered to achieve this goal, be trusted?

Can people of honor be found to champion this quest?

And if honorable managers / leaders / can be found, can their leaders be trusted?

When billions and billions of dollars are placed on the table, how strong can honor remain?

Is it realistic to have an expectation of “honor”?

In the end, what will need to happen is a controlled acceptance of corruption / graft / kickbacks, greed and lust for power.

Each of the GCC members will have to fine their team of champions and these teams will have to understand the limits of what they can allow to take place.

Achievable?

Yes.

It works in the Western Military Industrial arena every day of the year.

Can it work in the GCC?

If it doesn't ……failure!

STEP 4:

Standardization:

If you thought the previous steps were mountains to climb, here comes one that has no history of success in the region.

Standardization; what does it mean?

Equipment?

Yes!

Training?

Yes! 

Planning?

Yes!

Rank and structure?

Yes!

When NATO took on the task of “standardization”, it failed on several occasions and honestly it only was achieved after the US set the “standards” and told everyone else they had to follow.

What is purchased by one GCC member interacts how with what the other members buy?

Can one supply operation support multiple multinational units?

Can training for one nation fit the training of the others?

Can standardized  plans be written to achieve the goals of  multiple countries?

Can one exercise truly evaluate the capabilities of a “joint” force?

Can anyone guess what is need to make this standardization a reality?

Yep… Steps 1,2,3

With a huge emphasis on step 3!!!

STEP 5:

Evaluations:

After Billions and Billions have been spent; after countless governmental press releases on the tremendous achievements that have been made, how do the leaders and more importantly the people of the GCC nations truly know……believe…. The vision has been achieved?

Unfortunately, history tells us the only way this is achieved is in conflict.

So, does that mean that no matter what “evaluation” takes place, none of the leadership will ever really know…..believe the whole thing works?

Is there any chance of ending this dream with a true vision of hope?

Yes.

Parades are for building boosting the pride of the citizens.

They are often used as a way to send a “message” to one’s enemies!

Parades and scripted exercises are for “show”; true evaluations are for go or no go!

Those of us who have lived in the realm of down and dirty evaluations; evaluation that at some point put forces and leaders in a “ no win situation”, we understand the stark reality of true evaluations.

Has this been historically lacking in the GCC region?

Yes.

Why?

Yep.. steps. 1,2,3 and 4..but mostly 3!!

As I said earlier; those who sit in the reviewing stand; they know just how fictitious most of their evaluations are.

They fully understand the difference between a parade and an evaluation.

Most foreign assisted training and exercises in the region are parades, complicated parades, but parades never the less!

The GCC will need a true system of evaluations; evaluations that place the pressure of failure on leaders and leaders who understand this pressure early on in the procurement and training process.

Leaders who are not chosen given their family bloodline, but leaders who are chosen for their passion to keep their nation and the nations of their Allies safe.

Can these leaders come from the pool of historical “bloodlines”?

Yes, and as a matter of fact many do.

I had the honor of working with one in Saudi years ago.

Can these leaders demand an evaluation system that truly test their skills, that pushes them past the point of failure in order to give them the taste, the fear of such failure that insures they will not allow it to happen in reality?

Yes.

How?

Close the doors….limit who knows the results and push the capabilities with a evaluation process that had nothing to do with procurement or training.

Short answer….keep the contractors at the gate and test the mettle of the future forces with honorable, professional and most importantly “joint” evaluators.

It’s a team fight and a team must win or lose together.

After that is achieved, the synergy will be the armor that surrounds their capabilities.

So, there you have it.

Is that the answer from soup to nuts?

Probably not, but it is the structure of success.

Can Saudi and the rest of the GCC pull this off?

I will tell you this; Saudi cannot reach this goal on their own!

Synergy is the brass ring of this ride they appear to be  about to  embark on.

Synergy is the “endstate”…

Synergy is what they have lacked for centuries.

Follow five steps…follow with dogged determination and when the evaluation dust settles, it just may be synergy standing in front of them!

Time will tell and the odds are stacked against them.

THE SAUDI ASSERTIVE DEFENSE DOCTRINE…. CAN IT BE DONE?

On several occasions I've addressed the issue of Saudi coming to the realization they soon, if not already, may be “on their own” in terms of maintaining their world as they know it.

Rumors of oil running out.

More countries striving to become fuel independent with the US leading the way despite the current administration allegiance to it’s environmental base.

A US doctrine that gives every perception of walking away from the Royal Family all it stands for.

A Western, initial support, to the Arab Spring; an event I nicknamed the Tunisian Virus from day one!

The perception of a Western slant towards Shia / Persian / relationships.

Are these events enough to send the GCC members into a new direction; a direction that is based on once again attempting to stand, militarily, on their own feet!!!

Yes!

If you don’t agree, then you might be a member of the Western oil industry as you desperately try to convince you GCC partners this is all just a bad dream, a misunderstanding that will go away soon….2016…..

You want to see this process go into overdrive…..just let the GCC sit in their rooms on election night for the US and watch Hilary Clinton win the White House.

If you do accept the premise this shift is taking place, then follow me as I walk down the path of what will it take for this process to finally be successful; hint… it has not happened since the days of Saladin!

So, why is it so difficult for the Arab nations to build and maintain a viable military…one based on a true ability to interact and execute in a multinational contingency?

Time and time again, those who claim they have “worked” with these nations…sold them systems they don’t need….can’t use or don’t even understand will sit, outside of ear shout and say something along the lines of, “ they are too lazy to be a true fighting force”!

An ugly statement, but what is even more important is, it’s not true.

Do I have the portfolio to make that statement?

Yes.

How.

Don’t worry how, just trust me when I state that I do.

Time and time again many of these military units have shown to be little more than flashy and parade ready or even worse, scripted exercise with Brass watching from the sidelines.

Do these countries have specialized units that have passed true evaluations?

Yes, but small, specialized units don’t win conflicts….they execute missions that may lead to victory, but they do not determine victory.

So, what is the problem?

What has made this large scale improvement process so difficult to achieve?

Let me give a very ugly answer.

Who really wanted or wants them to be a viable fighting force?

Is the true mission to keep them hooked on Western equipment…keep them spending huge sums of money on defense contractors…. Paying for training programs that never show them the real pathway to becoming a modern military?

Do they put the effort into the process they are being shown?

Do they truly trust their forces to be taught how to think on their own?

Do the schools they are allowed to attend really mean as much to them as they should?

Hard questions that need honest answers before the way forward can be paved.

Back to the most basic point of this discussion.

Who really wants to see the GCC / Saudi / become an honest power projection fighting force?

Can the Saudi’s really envision it?

Even if they can; can the rest of the GCC membership?

Are they a house divided; so divided the concept of a truly capable Peninsula shield force cannot become reality?

The reality is, most will see this Saudi vision as one thing and only one thing; an opportunity to make money…large amounts of money.

The Middle East has been crawling with what I call Mr Haneys for decades with 9-11 being the zenith of a “ It just so happens I have what you need right here in the back of my truck”. 

Side note:   For those of you who don’t know who Mr Haney was, he as a character on a TV show in the US back in the 60s called Green Acres….. Mr Haney would show up everyday at Mr Douglas’s house, a rich New York Layer who moved to the country to work a rundown farm, and sell him anything he was looking for….Get the picture?

Billions have been made and the GCC still feels it needs a dramatic “change” in the unified approach to defending their countries.

Why?

Again, both side are at fault, but the Mr Haney’s of the world are the ones that made the Billions and the leaders of these nations know when they are being “took”!

Remember…Arab Businessmen have a few thousand years of experience in the skill craft of “dealing”.

Spending the last few decades, since the oil money showed up, being “taken” usually had a level of “kickback” built in!

Remember what I said; the reason effectiveness has been limited goes to both sides of the process…very few innocent members have been at the table.

Ok, it’s easy to criticize and it’s easy to sit here and explain why this modernization has failed to provide the leaders of the GCC with the confidence they desire.

Tomorrow I will spell out what I believe it will take to make this process finally become reality; and guess what… I won’t charge a dime!!!

Pass this post around for the next few days…this is going to be fun…fun to me that is!

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/06/saudi-arabia-regional-defense-doctrine-counterterrorism-plan.html

RUSSIA… THE UKRAINIAN CAMBODIA…

Over 500 fighters moving onto Ukrainian land from the border area of Russia?

To those who remember Vietnam… does this ring a bell?

If not, then perhaps you can understand Lebanon’s border with Syria.

So, why did the Tsar pull some of his forces back from the border?

Well, for one thing, his military leaders understand all too well the West has the ability to monitor unit movements on many different spectrum's.

Secondly, and more importantly…as I have said before, why should he send his troops on to Ukrainian land?

Why put Ukrainian blood on his paramilitaries units….oh…by the way…he has!!!

Next question.

Who are these “separatist” and how did they get so organized?

Are they elements of the Ukrainian forces from the Crimea region?

Yes….. some are.

Does anyone not believe this was the plan the whole time.

Recruit, train, equip Ukrainians to do the Tsar’s dirty work?

Train, equip them on the safe side of the border, a border Ukrainian forces dare not cross or fire over.

Yep…. Can you say Cambodia?

Some may wonder if such a fore is sizable enough and equipped to the point of reaching the objective?

Well; what is the objective?

What are they tasked to “achieve”?

Storm Kiev and bring down the government?

Nope.

Keep the Eastern region in crisis and eventually get the youth of Ukraine to turn on the unorganized and unproven government?

Yep.

Will this take time?

Yep..

Does the Tsar have the kind of time to make this plan work?

Why not…..what’s to stop him?

What are these Separatist truly facing?

An ill prepared, poorly trained and disorganized remnant of the old Ukrainian military….that’s what!!!!

So, have events in the Ukraine calmed down?

Have the Progressive governments of the West reached a status they can live with?

Have you heard the US administration even mention the Ukraine crisis in the past three weeks?

Who remains to have the upper hand in this conflict?

Yep… we know the answer!!!!

Out of site….out of mind… that is what the West is praying for….oops.. I don’t know if Progressives pray….maybe it’s a group think…. Collective process?

Round five…advantage….Tsar!!

Now let’s see what he serves next!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27661848