BALANCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.. IT’S CONTINUES TO SLIP AWAY!

How long has Western intelligence known the Saudis have DF-3 missiles?

Well, we would hope since the time they showed up, but this is not always the case.

I could tell you about a conversation I had with a Saudi Prince twenty-four years ago, but I won’tJ

For the sake of moving on with this posting, let’s assume, yep my favorite game, everyone knew the Saudis had these weapons….. to include the Iranian!

Does owing a nuclear capable missile mean nuclear weapons are actually in the possession of the country that displays the missiles?

Obviously not!

Would the Chinese have sold the Saudis nukes nearly 30 years ago?

No.

Did the Saudi’s finance the Pakistani nuclear weapon’s program?

For the most part…yes… or so goes the rumor!

Did the Paks develop a warhead that would fit on a DF-3?

Now, this is where the answers start to get a little fuzzy!

Would the Paks provide such a warhead to the Saudis?

A complicated answer would go here, but honestly it would take too long and drive this posting off track.

Could Pakistan deliver such a device to the Saudis or anyone else without Western Intelligence knowing?

Yep… Another complicated answer… avoided….

Ok, let’s give up on the real complicated tactical questions and concentrate on the strategic topic at hand.

Everyone, well, nearly everyone, agrees the balance in the Middle East is changing and it’s changing in coordinated and uncoordinated movements.

Story after story has been put out there over the issue of the dwindling alliance between the US and Saudi and how Saudi is looking for new  “partners”!

A Saudi – Pakistan “relationship” is not new and it’s not half-baked in its purpose.

If what Saudi did at the end of the exercise known as Abdullah’s Sword had the intention of sending a “message” to the West, then the results may be disappointing, at least for now.

“Don’t overreact” …. That is the golden rule of the current US administration and most of the US news media follows the orders on a consistent schedule.

Was it “Big News” the Saudi’s showed the DF-3?

If you asked the US DoS or DoD, the answer would most likely be a very scripted, “no”!

Who was the targeted audience for this Saudi message?

Iran?

Yes.

The West / US / ?

Yes!

Did it work?

Remember…… “Don’t overreact”….

With the Persians… now is not the time for a war of words with the Arabs who found oil.

So, did the message go unheard?

Not hardly!

When you read this story, it’s who attended that should catch your eye.

Is it the first time Pac DV’s attended an event in Saudi?

No.

Is it the first time they have attended the Abdullah’s Sword event?

Good question.

If the message presented by this even was aimed towards the West / US / and the Persians, who else may have been paying attention?

The Tsar?

Oh ya.

The Dragon?

Yep.

The Israelis?

Uhm… Add them to the list of those who knew what was in Saudi and you can probably add knowing where it was… how many.. and how good the crews are.

This may not have been, on the surface, the dramatic event the Saudis were anticipating, if they were anticipating drama…. They often specialize in “messages…. Inside of messages”, but I will tell you what it absolutely was.

It was and is just another indication of what direction the region is heading and the reality is those who called the shots for the region, the West, have all but lost that once exclusive and often abused privilege.

The region continues to move…movement brought on by the death of American Exceptionalism and the all too predictable outcome of that death…. The Arab Spring.

The Universal law of the physical universe… Balance!

It has been disrupted in the Middle East and now perhaps Europe.

What happens with balance is lost?

Yep…  you know the answer!

http://www.debka.com/article/23878/Saudis-parade-nuclear-missiles-for-the-first-time-in-defiance-of-US-Iranian-nuclear-accord

THE NEW “ NEW WORLD ORDER”.. WHO ARE THE MEMBERS?

Time and time again the conversation of changing attitudes and failing relationships has been the centerpiece of Western analysis of the Middle East.

After endless rounds of discussion, the one point that can made with regards to Egypt is the classical comment of, “what is old is new again”!

A reemerging relationship between Egypt and the Tsar is no unintended consequence of the Arab Spring.

Once again the death of American Exceptionalism comes to center stage.

If there is anything the Tsar may not have anticipated, and there is most likely not much when it comes to international affairs, it might be the eagerness the West / US / seem to have with shoving Egypt back into the arms of the Russians.

A deliberate act by the West / US ?

Probably not.

A result of a completely dysfunctional foreign policy that has little to no coordination with  so called Allies?

Yep.

So, if we accept the pending “relationship” between Egypt and the Tsar, keep one vital question in mind.

What of the Ottomans?

The more we hear of this new found love, the more we need to wonder what it all means to Egodan as he seeks to rise to the ranks of Sultan.

Has the West / US / thought this part of the relationship game through?

Hard to tell when you watch the actions of the US Department of State or the ever confusing messages from the EU.

What does the Tsar think his growing relationship with Egypt means to the Ottomans?

Now, that is even a better question.

As the US becomes more and more accustomed to the idea of watching from the sidelines, something its current leadership indorses, the concern should move towards, what’ next on the Tsar’s mind?

Should the West be concerned over a growing reemerging relationship between the Tsar and Egypt?

Yes.

Is the West in a position to truly impact the outcome of such an event?

With each passing day the answer becomes clearer.

No!

Here’s a closing issue that should be food for thought.

Who’s next on the Tsar’s list of “new friends”?

Israel?

Think that sounds outrageous?

Think again.

Saudi / Qatar……. The Turks?

Look, the Tsar has a vision and that vision is based upon a West that has absolutely no resolve to stop his vision; his version of the “New World Order”.

Once the conspiracy theorist in the US talked of the emphases, “ New World Order”.

Here is what may easily become the most tragic truth of the young 21^st century.

The New “ New World Order”, just may not have the US or Western Europe as voting members.

New World Order?

Yes.

Without the historical Western power brokers?

That is becoming more and more plausible.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/04/egypt-russia-foreign-policy-diversify-washington.html

RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE AND WHY THEY HAVE TO GO “BIG”!

Yesterday,  I commented on how the Tsar may execute Russia’s operation into the Ukraine.

What I failed to mention, or reemphasize, was the reality that this process was already well underway and had been for several months if not longer.

But, as I promised, let’s look at the tactical issues of the Russian operation and understand why in the long run, the reality will be they will have to go “BIG” or risk losing the intimidation factor they seem to be enjoying right now.

The so called experts have talked from time to time about the tremendous advantage, technology and numbers wise the Russian have over what is left of the Ukrainian military and how an actual kinetic fight between the two would be “lopsided”!

Is the Ukrainian military degraded?

Absolutely!

Trust… training…… logistical legs… these are all issues that limit the Ukrainian forces from executing combined arms operations.

Is the advantage so overwhelming the Russian Commanders are convinced they can limit their commitment to a pending conflict?

Absolutely not!

First and foremost, every military combatant commander who is worth their paycheck never plans on underestimating their opponent…. The all want the same environment….overwhelming numbers both in manpower and in equipment.

Every good combatant Commander lives by the rule of “4 to 1”… it takes four offensive members to overwhelm one defensive member.

If you accept this principle of warfare, then you understand the numbers we keep hearing about along the Ukrainian border.

Now, even with superior numbers, most combatant commanders will still plan for in great detail for the issue they are worried most about.

What don’t they know?

What assumptions might be incorrect?

What have the intelligence experts miscalculated?

These are the issues that drive the commanders to increase their numbers and often slow their advancement timeline.

The true tactical issue at hand:

Are the Russian forces that superior to the Ukrainian forces?

Better communications gear?

Better intelligence?

Better armored units?

Better air assets?

Let me pose this point in another way.

What if the well anticipated and talked about “invasion” began and the first thing the media picked up on was something that was not going well for the Russians?

How disastrous would that be for the Tsar’s worldly image?

What if our intelligence actually was able to witness a “state of the art.. .or so the Russians claim, Combat Brigade and what was observed was poor execution?

What if the new 21^st century, rebuilt Russian Army was bogged down in taking a small village with a ragtag Ukrainian military?

Will the Russians have causality aversion like the West currently has?

Simply put, what happens to the Tsar’s status if the operation does go as well as the media insured the world that it would?

Does the Ukrainian military have to have a real victory over the mighty Russian machine in order to “win” the conflict?

How damaging is this possibility and how threatening is it to the military leaders of the Russian force?

Who calls the Tsar and says, “Yes Sir.. We are having difficulties, just like the BBC / Al Jazeera, Fox and CNN are reporting”!

Let’s look at this from a historical viewpoint.

What was the strategically theory behind the “ Big Red Machine”?

Overwhelming numbers and crushing force at all times!!!

That is what the Soviet Military was built upon and that is what the West feared for decades.

When Russia announced it’s “restructuring of it’s military, the message was based on a new way of conducting warfare…. Combined Arms operations with Joint Forces in the lead… something they never truly believed in.

This “modernization” concept did everything to show the world the “ new Russia”.

It did very little to doctrinally teach it’s young military leaders Joint / Combined / Asymmetric warfare!

As I have said in the past, if you don’t believe me, just go look at how they handled Grozny.

A few new units and a few well-placed placed governmentally controlled media reports is not enough execute a strategic shift in conducting warfare.

What the world is witnessing near the Ukraine are selected “showcase” units and a great deal of information operations!

I’m not convinced senior Russian military leaders believe they are going to gain control of a nation like Ukraine with a few non patch wearing Special Forces units… .hell… even most of the Western Senior Military Commanders don’t truly believe this is the future of warfare; thus the buildup we have witnessed.

When the time comes, the move into the Ukraine will be large….it will be fast… and it will require as little “risk” as possible.

Risk…. as in the reputation of the Tsar! 

ACTUAL CONFLICT IN THE UKRAINE… HOW MIGHT IT PLAY OUT?

Well, we are back to the point of “imminent invasion” by the Tsar….Again!!!

By the end of the day, the talk of pending conflict was hot and heavy.

Is the Tsar about to make his next move?

Possibly, but let’s ask the bigger question; what will happen if he does?

The international questions that could come from such an event are too many to contemplate; but I think you can rule out “WWIII”… just drama talk!!

So, let’s take a look at what might take place at the tactical level and if I remember correctly, I’ve talked about his before. But…what the heck… let’s do it again.

Let me do this analysis from a different perspective.

Instead of talking about what might happen, let me take a shot on how I would do it if I was the Russian Commander for this operation.

First off, many of the initial objectives of a combined arms conflict based on taking and holding ground are universal and that allows us to accurately “guess” what might happen first.

What is significant is anticipating if the initial movement will be limited or full throttle?

Again, let me step back into the shoes of Commander and try to paint  a picture for all to comprehend.

First off, I would insure I understand implicitly the “end state” the Tsar is looking for.

Secondly; I would insure I have everything I need in position to make that task successful and I would not allow second rate units to be responsible for any mission that could prove to be single points of failure.

This takes time and it takes “just in time training”.. Troops must not just “know” the plan, they must be able to execute it.

Once I knew my forces were ready, I would let the Tsar know his forces were ready and waiting for his orders……PS.. .you better be right!!!!

At the same time, I assume my enemies are able to observe what preparation I’m taking.

Yes.. It’s called, “declaring an ‘exercise’”, but you must realize those “exercises” are observed.

You must realized your enemies military leadership is more than interested in what takes place in these “exercises”….given they are most likely “Rock Drills” for the real event.

Now the real smart Commanders know these “exercises” are observed for  just that reason and deception becomes a interracial part of the process.

Ok, So I insure I know the mission, have my forces ready and do my best to insure my enemies are not confident what my concept of operations is… I hope…

Again, this all takes time and prepping the Battlefield is critical.

So, how would I prep the Battlefield?

Well, if you have been paying attention, you’ve seen this process taking place for about three weeks now.

Information Operations, social media and funds to those who can do my dirty work…..that is how I would do it and that is exactly what we have been witnessing.

The Boss gives the Green light: 

 So, the moment comes when the Tsar says, “Execute”.

At that moment in time, my rule number one is to insure nothing about the “plan” has changed and that question can only be answered by one person…. The Boss.

Once I know nothing has changed, I insure all of my key leaders also understand nothing has changed.

Off I go…. And the only thing that matters is reaching the goal set in front of me…. No distractions unless they come from my superior.

Phase One:

Neutralize / degrade the enemy’s ability to counter my offensive.

A.    Rule the skies and rule them quickly.

SIDE NOTE:   What was the talk today….. oh ya… Russian aircraft in Ukrainian airspace… make them “paint me”… show me were your anti air is.. ..Where has it moved to… That is what we witnessed today.

B.     Dominate the communications spectrum.

Look at what took place in Georgian in the early hours of that conflict.

C.     Dominate the information spectrum.

Who is doing what to whom and who is trying to stop it.

Who looks like the bad guy and who looks like the good guy.

Here is a hint.. that is not important in the early hours of the operations at the international level…it’s vital at the local level….. you need pictures of being welcomed upon arrival!

D.     Insure the Ukrainian leadership looks as helpless and unable to function as possible.

Phase Two:

Stop what you started as quickly as possible!

Here is the “old think’ of Army doctrinal planning… Phase 1,2,3,4…. Old Kinetic warfare ‘think”!!!

Gone….. Historical markers that some old leaders cannot stop believing in.

I would start this conflict violently with the resolve to do whatever it took to reach my objective and drive to end the conflict before the rest of the world gets it’s “act together”.

I would want a 100 hr war more or less.

It’s something the Russians attempted in Georgia and they have most likely worked had to refine the process since then.

The First thing the reluctant West is going to want is to see a succession to open conflict as quickly as possible.

Fight… fight violently… make you enemy look weak and incompetent and then announce the desire to “talk”!

Talk about new boundaries… new requirements for governance and state these talks should take place inside the one organization known for taking years to talk about even one topic…. The United Nations.

Well.. This might seem simplistic, but the Russian have worked hard on simplistic goals orientated combat utilizing unconventional methods and I simply don’t see them not taking this course of action in the Ukraine….. I would!!!

Tomorrow.. I will talk about the one real danger with this philosophy …. The tactical level of failure!

AN ADVENTURE TO CAGE THE DRAGON… WITH A BUTTERFLY NET!

To say Pepe Escobar writes with sarcasm is to underestimate the obvious, but he drives a point home better than most.

How many people, not many I know, must be wondering, “ what is the US doing… shaking things up in the Dragon’s backyard at the same time they are being accused of aggravating the Tsar in his backyard as well”?

As poorly as the West is handling the status of an Allie that supported the West in Afghanistan and Iraq…yes.. the Ukraine put boots on the ground for the West in both conflicts…….  Why the sudden thumping on the Dragon’s tail?

I must admit, it seems puzzling to me and many like me, but there just might be a reason or two.

Let’s look at what might be going on here.

1. It was a planned trip and the US decided not to deviate it’s schedule and show “weakness”…. I know…. Too late!

2. Perhaps someone, you know… the academic’s looking for their next book on the issue.. have  convinced senior US leadership the Dragon must be shown it cannot pull a Crimea in the Pacific…. At least not without some real harsh words… and we all know how the Dragon shakes when harsh words are used…. Almost as bad as the Tsar.

3. Perhaps the whole Beltway Bandit Team has gone Batsh-- crazy?

Side note:  I could Easley see the left of center block in the US saying the President is once again caving to the Military Industrial Machine!

In reality, my bet is all three points have merit to what is taking place.

If the premise is the West is going too far by attempting to pull countries like the Ukraine away from the Tsar, then taking similar actions in the Pacific near the Dragon would seem disturbing.

Here is my problem with that line of thought; it gives the West / US / far too much credit for being visionary, deep thinking Masterminds.

The US currently has an administration that puts as little effort into international affairs as possible.

Planning the preventive demise of the Dragon and the Tsar may make for good sound bites to ward off accusations of being “clueless” in foreign policy, but the Devil always rest in the details and it’s the details that seem to be lacking here, not to mention just plain old simple desire!

Here is what I think is taking place.

The West / US / is not on the offense… not with the Tsar or with the Dragon!

No, just the opposite!

The Tsar sees the same thing the Dragon sees…weakness and a group of nations divided internally/ socially!

The Master Plan placed into motion by the Tsar was never designed to “prevent” the West from gaining ground on once Soviet ground.

Oh no…

The Tsar’s Master Plan is based on rebuilding the “ Motherland”… Just look at the opening of the 2014 Winter Olympics if you have any doubt.

The Dragon’s “Master Plan” is even far more complicated and detailed than the Tsars and has been underway for over thirty years now.

Folks…. Here is what the West / US / is doing and it’s more than not pretty, it’s almost terrifying!

The West / US / is now involved in a life and death struggle to remain relevant in the world.

Soon after losing “relevancy” can come demise!

What we witnessed today in the Pacific was not a well oiled machine set to counter the Dragon.

What I believe we witnessed was just another phase of the West / US / trying to tread water……..trying to hold together fleeting Alliances!

Tonight… Eastern Europe sleeps uneasy with the Tsar lurking in the dark and a few Paratroopers temporally in an exercise will not scare off the Russian Bear!

Tonight…. The friends of the West  / US / in the Pacific are thinking of a once mighty Warrior who is perhaps passed his prime.. still talking like a defender of the land, but the doubt is now there and the Dragon is out there in the dark… waiting!

In the Middle East… those who called us “Friend” now wonder where they will be in five years as the Persians and the Ottomans dream of Arab Slave Markets!

Yes… the “Apology Tour” and the announcement of the Death of American

Exceptionalism has set into motion events that perhaps could not have been prevented.

All powerful nations slip from grace at some point in history.

The question becomes, did the US set this action into motion too soon!

Was the world really ready for the withdrawal of leadership?

Side note:

 if my readers in Asia would be so kind to pass this around.. I would love to get the feedback or see how many read this post in that part of the world. Thanks.

BEAR BOMBERS… HAMAS AND FATAH… BUSINESS AS USUAL RIGHT?

Two stories today that on any typical day would grab some level of attention, but quickly fade of a CNN / FOXNEWS / BBC / Special Report broke out on a Police car chase or a Tornado that damaged five homes.

But, as we all know, we are not in “normal times” and that makes these two stories worth mentioning.

Have Russian / Soviet / bombers flown close to Western Airspace or even into it?

Yes… for decades!

Was this event any different today?

Yes.

Why is it different you might ask?

Because these are not “normal times”J

Logic would dictate that if a country was in a time of tenuous relationships, it would take extra precautions to avoid “misunderstandings… especially military misunderstandings!

Conversely; if such an action was to take place during such tenuous times, it would be expected that all parties involved would perceive this to be a deliberate act.

Now, does the Western media know full well this type of event has been going on for years?

Yes.

Does the Western media know these are not normal times?

Yes; hence the above average coverage today.

So, was the Bear Bomber flight paths a deliberate action?

Yes.

They always have been.

Superpower Bomber Crews don’t accidently fly somewhere!

They don’t get “lost” or miscalculate their location!

So, yes the act was deliberate and it was deliberate at a time when the Tsar’s military knows all too well how delicate relationships are.

Was it “timed” to take place at the same time as the anticipated arrival of US forces in Poland and several other old Warsaw Pact countries?

Really… need I answer that one?

Did this “event” have any true meaning; was there a message being sent?

Yes!

Nothing is going to take place between the West and Tsar that doesn’t involve “messaging” from the Russian standpoint!

Ok, on to the next topic of the day.

Hamas and Fatah!

One of the advantages of writing about the Middle east for the past several years is being able to remember how many times a topic has been rehashed.

I’m fairly confident I’ve spoke to the issue of Hamas and Fatah forming a “government” on two perhaps three other occasions.

This time around, let me get right down to the brass tacks of this glorious announcement; “glorious announcements”… something the Palestinian, Hamas and Hezbollah leaders love to act out!

Not so long ago, Hamas gunned down Fatah members in Gaza in a bloody takeover!

Did anyone forget this fact?

I bet the members of Fatah who lost loved ones have not forgotten.

I bet the government of Israel didn’t forget.

So, once again, is this something new?

Is this agreement different?

As with the Bear Bombers, the answer is yes!

Is it different that Hamas and Fatah will never agree on who is in charge of what?

Nope…. That will never change…. Not in the Middle East!

So, how is this historic agreement different this time around?

Because it give the Israelis the ability to look the West / US / right in the eye and so, “I told you so”!

All the pressure to force the Israelis to the table just left the political balloon!

How many times has Abbas threatened to “quit”?

Well, this time around his threats may not be needed.

In the past the Arab nations were in a position to spend energy on keeping the Hams / Fatah issue under control.

Times have changed and the luxury of Arab League  / GCC / input may be gone.

Hamas is in a far different place this time around.

Egypt is now back on the “other side” and the Persian input is more demanding than ever.

Hamas leverage of the more radical elements in Gaza is weaker and those elements know it.

Both Hamas and Fatah leadership are now more worried about hearing, “we told you your way doesn’t work”!

What will come of this “historic announcement” is not based on a joint government.

What will come of this event is the ability of the Israelis to walk away from the table and tell the US administration, “that is what you get for making us come into the White House using the backdoor”!

So you see, both events have historical support.

What makes things different this time around is where we are in the word now compared to the events of the past.

“Oh…It’s always been that way”!

One of the most ignorant and dangerous statements any so called “expert” can possibly make.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/23/world/europe/russian-bombers-intercepted/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

http://www.debka.com/article/23862/Netanyahu-breaks-off-peace-talks-over-Palestinian-pact-with-Hamas-US-may-suspend-PLO-recognition

UKRAINE THE TSAR AND NORTH KOREA?

Once again, I get the opportunity to voice my theory of alliances most of the world doesn't think about or worse care about.

Now, in the past few years, I've   jumped up on my soapbox and vocally placed my opinion of what could be taking place between a few of the US’s most dangerous enemies……yes… I used the word the current leadership in DC seems to despise…. “Enemy”!

Several years ago, I posed this question; what if Iran and North Korea had a pack to support each other in time of crisis with the West / US/ not by sending aid, but by creating a crisis precisely at the same time of pending action, but doing so on the other side of the world?

Is there a relationship between Iran and North Korea?

Yes!

Would both be willing to sacrifice greatly if they had some level of confidence that a post event world would favor their own survival?

Yes.

What have I said time and time again…… “ The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend”!

Is the Bad Haircut kid capable of actions that would stun the world?

Yes!

Do the Chinese control him to the point he could not execute something dramatic?

No… and trust me.. that upsets them more than anyone realizes.

Ok, the topic of North Korea’s relationship with Iran is not the central point of his conversation… not right now.

Let me move to what I wonder is the real issue.

The Tsar!

ASSUME TIME:

Let’s assume the Tsar is fully aware of such a relationship between the North Koreans and the Persians, after all who pulls the stings of the Persians and does so far more effectively than the Dragon controls the bad Haircut Kid!

Let’s assume the Tsar likes the idea of applying pressure to the West / US/ if the price of operations in the Ukraine become painful?

Would the Tsar risk actual armed conflict with the US?

I don’t think so, but I have moved away from the standard reply of “no”!

What if the Tsar informed the Persians to let the Bad Haircut Kid know he would be grateful for a well-placed message to the US / West ?

Do you think all of this sounds outrageous?

If you do, then once again I would submit you are not in touch with how ruthless, aggressive world leaders operate!

Does the Bad Haircut Kid have to pop a new nuke to make the Tsar appreciative?

No.

Does he have to get the two parties in the US arguing over how lost the current leadership in the US seems to be?

An easy achievement when you get right down to it; just pay attention to the political speak coming from DC if the Nuke test issue rises to the prime time news.

Some may ask the question,  “ what’s in it for the Bad Haircut Kid”?

Well, the current course of international events has a large chunk of the world believing the Tsar is the new power broker and that might be a good friend to have, especially if the Dragon Kingdom seems to no longer need your assistance.

Is there a subliminal message from the Tsar to the Land of the Dragon if he pulls off a “joint operation” with North Korea……if he gets the Bad Haircut Kid to do something for him the Dragon doesn’t support?

Who does the Tsar really fear….. in the long run???????

How complicated has international interactions become in the 21^st century?

Who in the world was such a dreamer that they truly believed the world was never going to see global conflict?

What was the nickname given to WWI ????

Oh ya… The war to end all wars!!!

Are we on the road to global war?

No..

Not yet..

What we are most likely witnessing is yet another phase of the Tsar’s Master Plan.

Is North Korea about to do something for the simple sake of the Tsar?

Trust me, if this “theory” of mine is even close to being true, there is something in it for the Bad Haircut Kid!

Imagine… just imagine what a man like Putin thinks of this silly looking little boy playing leader in North Korea!!!

The world does not move according to the talk around a table of highballs at a black-tie  Department of State social gathering.

The world is being moved by a man who doesn’t wear a shirt when he is hunting Tigers!!!

Finally;

If you truly believe the possible events with North Korea are simply a coincidence, then you need to just worry about who is on Dancing with the Stars and let the events of the 21^st century surprise you as they happen.