UKRAINE’S “ANTI TERRORISM” DISASTER!

A few weeks ago, when it was announced the new government in the Ukraine  was going to form a “National Guard”, I commented on why this would be taking place and how the new government had no real idea who could be trusted inside the Ukrainian military.

For the past few days I’ve addressed the issue of “planning” and how this so called Anti Terrorism operation was most likely far more complicated  than the new government of Ukraine  was capable of pulling off.

So, what happened today?

How is it that the much announced “anti terrorism” operation in Eastern Ukraine turned into a photo op for the pro Russian side?

My hunch is a few things may have happened and none of them bold well for the new government in Kiev.

First off, if the Ukrainian government utilized members of this new “National Guard” force, one that has a little over a month of training, then the outcome the world witnessed was more than predictable.

If this response force had members from that region of Ukraine, then the reluctance to combat their fellow countrymen was again more than predictable.

So, let’s go back to my point of the past few days; poor planning by unqualified planners can only lead to disaster and today was a disaster for Kiev.

What we are witnessing in the Eastern region of Ukraine is the clash between detailed, professional planning and panic planning exited by unprofessional planners.

Here is an example of what I’m talking about.

Rumors were all over the place today over the fact that many of the “Little Green Men”, the pro Russian men in matching uniforms with no patches, were from Crimea and were actually Ukrainian and not just Russian Special Forces; although they are also part of this processes.

A brilliant move on the Russian’s part!

Side Note:

Is not the Crimea now part of Russia; hence …are these troops in reality Russian troops?

I will admit, taking the airfield back yesterday did hint at some level of tactical response on the part of the new Ukrainian  government.

Airfields are prime initial targets of any Russian movement into the region and unlike in the Crimea, the Ukrainian military, what is left of it, seemed to figure that out.

Here is the bad news.

If the Russians decide to come, the forces at the recaptured airfield won’t hold for an hour or so.

So, what did today show us?

My opinion doesn’t hold well for the Ukrainian government, but the bad news doesn’t stop at Kiev.

What today showed the world is  the complete breakdown of what was left of the Ukrainian military and to what level the leadership must have been dismissed.

The plan that began to execute yesterday was a complete failure and it’s an ideation that any follow on action will be even more reckless.

The real bad news is, the next round of reckless operations will most likely lead to open conflict and that is exactly what the Tsar is counting on.

The Ukrainian military is all but dysfunctional and its ability to defend the new government is truly nonexistent.

A week or two of armed thugs killing each other and the media showing panicked civilians running for their lives will lead to calls for some form of intervention.

That call may come from Moscow before it comes from anywhere else and that my friends was the Tsar’s plan from day one!

As a reminder… The Ukraine is not the only phase of the Tsar plan to rebuild the Russian Empire.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27053500

RUSSIAN MILITARY IN EASTERN UKRAINE?

Once again the age old adage of,  “ a picture is worth a thousand words”, in this case a short YOUTUBE clip, drives home a point many seem to be missing.

First off, the Western intelligence community is capable of “knowing” if Russian troops, even special units, are operating on Ukrainian land.

The warnings that have officially come from not only the US, but other Western leaders addressing Russian “interference” in Eastern Ukraine are not based on speculation.

These statements are developed after close consultation with the intelligence agencies of multiple nations.

So, when I watched this clip shown by BBC, my theory I stated yesterday seemed all but cemented in fact.

If Eastern Ukraine is leaning towards Russia and the Russian backed government was in control of the country only months ago, then why would the civilian police departments in that region be anything but pro-Russian?

It’s the reason we have not seen and will not see a “combined” civilian / Military / operation to “Free” those captured facilities.

The forces now forming on the outskirts of these towns are not from that region and if we do see civilian law enforcement, they will not be from that region as well.

As for this Russian Col?

Notice how the Police Officers are paying attention to him?

Notice how they are not acting as if he is just some civilian nutcase belching out support to a group of recently turned supporters?

Hi mannerisms mimic a true military Commander and there is no doubt in my mind this clip is a legitimate event.

So what is about to happen?

Yesterday, I warned that a half-baked, unprofessional plan being launched is far more dangerous than doing nothing at all, but I am convinced that is exactly what is about to take place.

Remember, that is exactly what the Tsar is counting on!

A desperate act that is well covered and very poorly executed with unpredictable results plays right into his hands.

As for the much talked about phone call between the Tsar and the US President, what really matters is who called who?

Did the Tsar call the President?

Was it part of the Master Plan and simply fit the timeline of execution once the Russians saw the Ukrainian forces moving towards the Eastern Cities?

If that is true, then what was said or agreed to is most likely irrelevant.

I would be willing to bet the staging of forces just outside the towns is a last ditch effort to let politicians talk.

As soon as those forces make contact…. The time for talking will come to an end and the time of complete unpredictability will be upon us.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27022548

 KIEV’S EMPTY THREATS…..AND THE LACK OF "PLANS"

Well, back to the story that is the Ukraine and a quick comment about the threats of action by the new government in Kiev.

As most deadlines go the one that was all the talk yesterday passed.

The only question worth asking today is “why”; why did the deadline pass?

When this phase of the Tsar’s Master Plan to reestablish the Russian Empire began, I stated the real problem for the new Ukrainian leadership was actually being able to defend the country.

What percentage of the senior leaders really supported what took place in Kiev?

Yep; we talked about this once before, so let’s push passed this information loop!

Can the new government of Kiev, notice I don’t say the Ukraine given I’m not convinced they control mush outside of Kiev, actually coordinate a unified action between the civilian police, the slice they can trust, and the military and the slice they can trust?

Have they done their homework to the level required?

Do they really have the ability to execute a detailed operation that is absolutely packed with dangers for not only their leadership, but the leadership of Europe?

“ I give you until…..???... to stop what you are doing or else…..”

Was that commitment to action thought out and were professional planners involved in preparing a detailed plan for such an event?

My bet is that didn’t even come close to taking place.

Detailed operations require detailed, professional planning.

Someone who was, just a few months ago, a regional economic advisor to the deputy assistant of something or another, is completely incapable of overseeing a detailed civilian / military / coordinated event.

A retired “Friend” of the revolution of someone who was once in the military or a mid level civilian law enforcement member still doesn’t have the tools required to “plan” at this detail.

So, why did it not take place?

I’ll answer that by stating, thank God it didn’t take place!

What the Tsar is planning on is an unmitigated disaster with the media showing, worldwide, how out of control the event is becoming…. By the way… the first ones to use the term, “civil war” was whom…..Yep… Moscow.

So, what would it take for Kiev to actually execute what they warned would happen?

First off, the civilian / military planning process  would have to take place and that would take time, perhaps days…

Did the new government have this process underway knowing the troubles in that region of the country were bound to happen?

One would think, but with the processes of forming a new government and trying to determine who was pro-Russian and who was not,  makes this  a highly unlikely scenario.

If the new government placed this ultimatum without a plan, then the ability to integrate the forces / civilian / military / is nearly impossible.

This could explain why the civilian law enforcement agencies in the East have been virtually unseen for over a day now.

The even more ominous sign would be the fact the departments dissolved or worse, changed sides to the pro Russian movement.

If you ask me, I think this is exactly what took place and is still taking place.

That would mean the leadership in Kiev is now having to contemplate something far more difficult that retaking a few buildings.

How do you “invade” a whole region of your own country?

That is truly what I believe Kiev is up against.

That planning process takes time and it also takes people who know how to plan.

Who does Kiev have left that can accomplish such a task and can they be trusted.

As a reminder, senior leaders do not do detailed planning.

They give guidance and you better trust the working level staffs that have to put such a huge plan together.

As it’s been written, it’s probably being reviewed in Moscow!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27018199

ASSAD…. PERSIANS, TSARS AND “DRAGONS”:

Way back when, at the beginning of the conflict in Syria, I gave my opinion of just how this all might end, given the West desire to no longer be seen as a world leaders!

If you search this site, you will see my comments on how the day would come that the Tsar and his Persian Allies, if the Tsar really has such a thing, would decide if Assad stays or goes and if he goes, who would replace him.

So, when I came across these two very well written articles, I was compelled to go back and read what I posted over three years ago.

Yep… I was right!!!

Now, one of these stories brings up an excellent and important point about Mr Assad.

He, like me, has always known he serves at the pleasure of the Persians and the Persians decision to keep him in power is influenced by the Tsar!

Does that mean he is willing to go upon request?

No!

Do the Persians and the Tsar understand that dilemma?

Yes!

As I said three years ago, when the time comes for Assad to “leave”, he will not be asked to “go”!

He will wake up “dead!

He will most likely hear kind words being said over his body, most likely at the barrel of a gun, and he will see whoever it was his Masters chose to replace him standing next to his most loyal military leaders…who actually work for the Persians!

The facts are these:

1.  Assad’s departure will be determined by his Masters, even if his Masters decide to let the rebels succeed in killing him thereby providing his government the rally cry to avenge his death in a most merciless event…. One the West will only sit back and watch.

2.  The future of the region no longer is controlled by the West and in fact the influence factor is decreasing by the day.

3. Finally; the plans of the Masters are flawed, as plans almost always are, by the fact they didn’t take into account other potential “Masters” and the actions they are quietly making.

Yes the region is changing and there is no doubt Assad will not be part of that change, but as I said two days ago, relationships are being forged and the most important ones are being made in closed rooms without the Persians and the Tsar.

They may worry they are being made and they may even try to anticipate what deals are struck, but in the end, they will have to wait to see just how well their plan executed.

In ancient history…. Those who dreamed of sailing the world and finding untold wealth were overcome by stories of Dragons and Sea Monsters… so much so thee very maps they made depicted areas one dare not go!!!!!

Those days may soon be a reality once again!

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/542912-avec-moi-le-deluge

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2014/04/11/Bashar-al-Assad-a-costly-card-for-Iran-.html

UKRAINE AND THE GHOST OF BLACKWATER!!!

As we ponder the next steps in the Tsar's detailed plans for the reemerging Mother Russia, we need to be careful not to overlook the critical function the media certainaly was tasked to play in the Master Plan.

The argument that the  media in Russia is openly controlled by the Tsar is not worth debating.

Yes, many say, "well... CNN is nothing more than a mouthpiece for the administration', or, " Fox is just a Right Wing Support Group"!

The fact of the matter is, both are still independently owned stations that compete for advertising dollars and when push comes to shove, a good story that goes against what their ownership stands for will still be covered if it means ratings!

This is not the case in Russia and the world knows it.

Now, why is this fact important?

I have heard rumors for weeks now about Western manipulation in Kiev, so when this  story of Greystone was aired in Moscow, I had to wonder......why?

Do the Russian know "someone" may be in the tasked to help the new government in Kiev and is that the most important part of this comment about Greystone?

If the Tsar knows groups like Greystone are in Kiev, does he realize some of these groups really do march to the sound of profit and not orders from the White House?

Does the White House know what is really going on in Kiev?

Here is the more important question.

Does that matter?

I would suggest what really matters is what does the Tsar believe.

Time and time again, I have commented on how "perception" is reality in the connected world of the 21st century and time and time again I have warned about the paranoia of a man like the Tsar.

If Greystone or any group like them is truly operating in the Ukraine, and my bet is they are if there is money to be made and young men who still seek the thrill of danger, then the Western governments / US / needs to be prepared for how the Tsar will leverage this point.

How will it look if the West continues to "warn" the Russians to stay out of Ukrainian "business" and then have the Russian expose a Western cooperation direct involvement in the Ukraine?

The government controlled media in Moscow put this comment in the news over the past two days for a reason and someone in the West better get ready for what that might mean.

Oh...by the way... I truly hope someone doesn't try and use the same old pathetic statements the West / US / made about Blackwater in Iraq.

I will tell you without a shadow of a doubt Blackwater was an unmitigated disaster for the West / US / in Iraq!

No one in Moscow is going to believe private / military / contractors are in the Ukraine without the blessing of the Western / US / governments.

This shot across the bow of the West on Russian news channels is more than just a story.

It's a warning.. and it's a warning that someone better understand and "fix" quickly!

http://www.phantomreport.com/greystone-limited-mercenaries-operating-in-ukraine

THE TSAR AND THE DRAGON... A DEAL OVER GAS?

When I first commented on the events taking place in the Ukraine, I pointed out that a person like Putin never set out on a complex event without a plan.

As an old KGB Boss, the very idea of  carrying out a mission without proper detailed planning is against everything he was taught.

If you read what I posted last month, you will remember I commented on how the Tsar would have antisipated the Western reaction to his aggressive movements.

within a day of the violence, political leaders in the West were clamoring for the West to cut dependency on Russian fuel.

Predictable?

For the Tsar, this was most likely one of the initial COAs / Courses of Action / he had his planning team take into consideration.

Now, the Russian's concept of supplying  fuel to the Dragon, well, that is a far more complex topic than most would think, but one of the short term goals of becoming less vulnerable to Western dependency... a West that could easily increase their own production levels, was a goal the Tsar knew he had to reach.

So, as a good friend of mine always says, "sometimes you have to wait for the next move to understand the first"!

The Tsar's pending "deal" with the Dragon, well.... that could be the next "move" we all have been waiting for.

Here is the problem!

The sequence timelines between moves may very well speed up.

Let's play my favorite game again!

ASSUME:

Let's assume the Tsar antisipated this pending deal with the Dragon!

Let's assume the Tsar based his next tactical move in  Eastern Ukraine on this pending deal.

Should we now assume, the events in Eastern Ukraine are part  of the "next move"?

We are talking about the nation of Master Chess Players!

I know some people out there tend to believe if they don't see a story staying on the front page for days on end, then the event must be stabilizing or even getting better.

That is such a poor assumption with the Attention Deficit Disorder Western Media groups.

People like the Tsar ,they are skilled in the craft of timing!

The Tsar knows all too well how quickly people, now days, move on to the next shinny object in the news..

Some guy with no legs who kills his girlfriend has the Western media memorized for the third day in a row now!

So, it seems the "plan" the Tsar has launched, a process in rebuilding the dignity of the Russian Nation, is moving "according to plan"!

We continue to look for a airplane at the bottom of the sea..... and the rest watch a legless man cry in front of a judge..

Here who is not watching the courtroom soap opera.

Here is the slice of the Tsar's plan that really becomes dangerous for him in the long run and he knows it.

The DRAGON!

The same DRAGON that once owned Siberia.... and plans to "own" it again someday!

This gas deal is a great victory for the Tsar and the reemerging Russian Empire.....or is it?

http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/133307/russia-says-gazprom-china-close-to-gas-agreement-updated

HEZBOLLAH'S STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CORE. 

When I first wrote of Hezbollah's entry into the Syrian Civil War, I stated Hezbollah would not survive as the force they were at that point in time.

The thrill of being young and being involved in day to day conflict.... fighting door to door and watching those around you die changed the pillar of the Hezbollah movement....it's fighting youth.

When their Persian Masters ordered them into the Syria conflict, it seemed a glorious task and many ran to the sound of the guns.

Then came the first real test for the leadership of Hezbollah; explaining the deaths, many of them, to a families in Lebanon who wanted no part of the conflict in Syria.

Having to look into the eyes of the women of the families and explain to them how their Sons, Husbands died at the hands of fellow Arab Muslims in a land that didn't have any meaning to the families.... that was the fist task leadership was not prepared for.

Then came fighting an enemy who was without rules!

Yes, in the history of Hezbollah, the fighting or preparation for fighting was based on an enemy who would limit themselves with human rules!

Against the well trained and fanatical Sunni units, this advantage disappeared.

And still the stress of informing families of "why" usually without the "how" or "where"!

Then the next real change began to become appearent to Hezbollah's leadership; the same change that took place with the Rebels leading the fight against Assad.

Hezbollah leadership stayed in Lebanon, drinking tea and eating more in a day than the front line youth was getting in a week.

No sleep.... the loss of friends.... Iranian Masters dictating where and when to be and how to fight....

And so, the changes continued!

After the fist year, the fighters in the field began to look back into Lebanon and say, "easy for you to say... .you are sleeping 10 hrs a day in real bed"!

Oh yes.... the thrill was gone and Hezbollah leadership knew it and still knows it!

The reality that Hezbollah's leadership never wanted to realize has come true.

Factions!

Yes, Hezbollah has had hardcore elements in the past, but this is different.

Hezbollah is not what it was  before they entered Syria and the changes that will continue are nearly impossible for their leaders to predict.

And as all of this is taking place, the call for more Hezbollah members to give up their lives... for a rich Eye Doctor and the Persians...well... that demand just keeps coming.

Is Nasrallah right?

Are the Israelis content with Hezbollah members killing fellow Muslims on Arab land?

Yes!

Here is the bigger question.

What is Nasrallah will or able to do about it?

What changes to his fighting force are taking place as he sleeps and drinks tea in Lebanon?

Will he wake up soon and realize, part of his organization no longer believes in him or his vision?

Nasrallah pushed Hezbollah into Syria at the orders of his Persian Masters!

Nasrallah has shoved Lebanon into the violence of Syria at the orders of his Persian Master.

How much longer will Hezbollah's fighting core follow him?

Who will become their new Hero?

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/reportsfeatures/542407-notorious-hezbollah-checkpoint-removed-amid-internal-reshuffle