SNAPSHOT..... HEZBOLLAH....RUSSIA... SAUDI AND THE ARAB LEAGUE

I've not done one of these is months, but today is a good day to do one; SNAPSHOT.

(A quick look at several key topics that lead to a common "picture").

HEZBOLLAH:

It appears Nasrallah felt it was time to give one of his canned, "why are we here", speeches this week.

Why is Hezbollah in Syria?

Those that know the region, know the answer and it's an answer that really upsets those who support Hezbollah with their families blood..... by the way. Hezbollah doesn't need the money for the fighting in Syria, Assad and the Persians supply that part.. the cheap part of the process.

The young men of Hezbollah are in Syria because for two reasons.

1.  They fear the Sunni movement more than they fear an Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

2.  They given their orders by their Persian Masters and their Masters want them in Syria leading to Arabs killing Arabs!

Now, both of these points are more than hard sells for Mr. Nasrallah and a very evil government once lived by the premises of, " The greater the lie, the more often you have to tell it"!

The fact of the matter is, just as some of us predicted, Hezbollah ran to the glory of young men fighting in the streets of Syria only to realize there is no way out!!!!!

The other ugly fact that Mr. Nasrallah wants desperately to avoid is the reality that Lebanon is now in more danger than ever of becoming yet again a failed nation-state.

The chances of those who wish Lebanon to survive the event in Syria; those who wish to avoid shoving Lebanon into a sectarian war have been greatly diminished by the selfish actions of Mr. Nasrallah and his Persian Masters.

Finally, if there is one thing Hezbollah's leadership understands, it's the reality their Persian Masters also have a Master and that Grand Master's name is Putin!

What does the Tsar's complex game have planned for the Persians and how will the Puppets of Hezbollah be tasked?

Who knows...... they will just have to wait to see what the Persians are told to do.  

NEXT:

RUSSIA:

Well, that leads to the next interesting slice of the Snapshot!

In the past two days, a great deal has been made of the Tsar's 'reaching out" to the US.

Even this morning the Western Press is ripe with stories of "further diplomatic meetings"!

Well, as my Mother always said, "talk is cheap", and that is exactly how an X KGB Chief would see it!

"Talk", most likely a necessary round or phase of the Tsar's Master Plan; he can't let that public image get too far out of hand!

So, the obvious question remains, what's next?

What happens?

Is there another phase to the Tsar's Master plan?

Well, ask yourself this one simple question and I think you will begin to form your own answer.

Would Putin and Russia knowingly had their economic future jeopardized for the sake a physically taking control of a small slice of land....a slice of land the whole world knows they already control outright?

Does the Tsar fear the Russian version of a Arab Spring so much, that he has decided to launch his reinstatement of the Russian Empire with full force?

Most of us know, he has long dreamed of regaining Russian glory, but have the events of the past three years... have the growing protest in Moscow and the expanding Social Media concept driven his worries to the point of complete panic?

My guess is, unfortunately....yes!!!

Well, that should give everyone their answer!

This Crimea / Ukranian / event was not about the Crimean people longing to be part of Mother Russia.

This was not a single "blip" on the world's radar.

In my opinion, this was round one of a very paranoid, egomaniac's reaction to a threat he cannot live with.

NEXT!

SAUDI ARABIA:

Where is Saudi after this week of "talking" with the US?

Are the fears of abandonment gone?

Insert laughter here.

Will the central figure of the Gulf Region begin to calm down over it's future with the US?

No!

Like the Tsar, the Saudi leadership fears change.... change they cannot control and change that leads to future that may or may not involve them.

Who can help them prevent this change?

China.... India.... Russia... Israel......yes I said Israel!!!

Never...ever...forget...."The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend"!

If the West is no longer perceived as part of the process and the Gulf States have what others desperately need.. fuel..... then what new strategic alliances are in the making?

History has always shown us Alliances have three parts... beginnings.... Test...Breakup!

Here is another historical fact of Alliances; after they fall apart, the old members have very little say so on what the other member / members / do or who they form new Alliances with!

Here is my hint.... we nee to produce every ounce of energy in this country that we can and we need to reach out to Mexico like we never have before.

NEXT:

THE ARAB LEAGUE:

 Let's face the reality of the world as it stands today.

The Arab League is a complete waste of time!

No one pays attention to it, not even it's members.

It's like a dying country club in an area that at one time was the place to live, but is now rundown.

My prediction is that after new alliances are forged in the Arab world, a process that is taking place right now, the Arab League will be renamed and maybe even reenergized!

Until then, the organization is not even with mentioning or tracking.

The events surrounding the rifts in the GCC are going to change the course of the Arab world.

Simply put.. as the GCC moves, the rest will follow...

It's the same old story....follow the money!

SO THE TSAR CALLS THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES?

So, the Tsar called the President of the United States while the President was in Saudi Arabia?

Did anyone catch that point?

Why make that call now?

Why call him while he is discussing regional visions and alliances with an allie that is more than skeptical now?

Does anyone think the point was lost on the King or his staff?

I bet it was not lost at all!

In the eyes of an Arab leader, who would look like the person truly in charge?

The person visiting another country, a country the person is struggling with?

The person who made the call, knowing the location and topics the other side was involved in?

Am making something out of nothing?

I would like my friends in the Middle East to answer that question.

Gamesmanship..... an art form the Tsar has come to master....that is what I believe is taking place here!

Next question; did the Tsar simply make the phone call to make the President look weak in front of the Saudi King or did he make this stunt a "twofer"?

I would love to hear what the Tsar had to say and even more, I would love to know who got to listen in on both sides.

On one side is most likely  Ms Rice.... Please!!!!

On the other side.... well...who knows.... ask the Western intelligence agencies who is part of the Tsar's inner circle and see if they have a real clue!

Ok, on to what was said.

Does anyone really think the Tsar "reached out" to the President of the United States?

Really????

If the Tsar's perception of the President of the US is let's say, less than favorable, then what message was given?

"Here is what I'm going to do and here is why and I want to warn you about taking this too far... I want you to understand why I am doing what I am and that I will not change my mind"!

What if that was the message....more or less?

Early today a lot was said about the US President's comments about understanding what worries the Russian President!

Let me ask a simple question.

How does everyone think that somewhat sympathetic stance played in Eastern Europe?

What was the fly on the wall version from the leadership of Poland... Bulgaria ect...ect?

Is it possible the Tsar read and heard this stance and figured it was the right time to make the next move? 

Here is what I believe.

Whatever the purpose was behind the Tsar's phone call, we will see the results soon.

I am sure the Tsar was not feeling desperate or pressured to "reach out" to the US President.

If anyone thinks that could be the case, and most liberal media will, than they are simply hiding their heads in the sand...once again...

SOCIAL MEDIA AND THE FEARS OF ERDAGAN:

It was hard to decide to stay on the topic of Egodan and his struggle to suppress Social Media in Turkey, given all the events that were worthy of discussion today.

None the less, what he is attempting to do is more than important enough to justify at least one more review before I move on to what is taking place with the rest of the region and Europe.

Ok, in my reoccurring desire to keep it simple.... let me just reiterate why Egodan is doing or attempting to do... stifle social media events by the people who he perceives to be his enemies... and that list seems to be growing by the day.

As if his attempts to close the door on Twitter were not enough to get people to turn their heads in disbelief, now he has his lapdogs make a move on Youtube?

I will give you the fact Google made "deals" with China, but Google saw a BILLION...FIVE HUNDRED MILLION potential customers in China and what company would not sell their collective soul for such a goal?

And besides, in the end, not even China's governmental machine will achieve the goal of limiting the people's ability to communicate with the outside world.

Here is the next part of this Egodan story that caught my eye.

What was it that Youtube did that upset him so much?

Oh ya.. showed a clip of his lapdogs laying out the plans for actions inside of Syria; and event many like me think is coming if needed to take the heat of Egodan.

Did Youtube fabricate the clip?

No!

Did someone in the opposition "doctor" the clip?

Who knows.

The one thing I didn't hear today was the lapdogs of Egodan stating the whole story was a fabrication; as a matter of fact they said, "parts had been doctored"?

What does that mean?

Do government's and their militaries draft "contingency plans"?

Of course they do!

So, why not simply say, someone hung a clip that showed a typical planning process.... like any planning process that has most likely taken place dozens of times since the crisis in Syria began?

I will tell you why; Because the leaked clip is not the issue at all.

The issue is the fury over social media not being controllable in Egodan's Land... Remember.... he owns the whole country...just ask him or listen to his speeches.

Look, there are many issues taking place right now both in the region of the Middle East and the areas around it and most of them are capable of sparking very dangerous events.

The whole region has been an accident waiting to happen for years, but Turkey is not just a trivial matter.

Yes, Egodan is just another egomaniac who is terrified of losing power...power he wants to hold on to for years to come, but Turkey is a gateway nation and this gateway nation sits at the doorstep of a region already reeling from the actions of the new Tsar.

Squeezing social media is going to and actually already has, backfire on him and his government.

As some try desperately to "keep it all together: in the region and even in Europe, it is critical that someone else doesn't set the wheels in motion for larger problems.

Now is not the time for Turkey to decide to move on Syria for the sake of saving Egodan's rule.

Social media usage in Turkey is not the issue here, but the actions of his government are a real indication just how dangerous his actions... thoughts are becoming.

We don't need anymore "bad news" in the region, but I don't know that Egodan knows that or even cares.

ERDOGAN'S LOSING CONTROL ... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

In a flash of the obvious, I will state once again just how idiotic the attempt by Egodan to kill TWITTER in Turkey, or as he would put it, "in my country"!  I keep forgetting he owns the whole country... Side note.. When a national leader speaks in first person, that is a very...very dangerous sign!!!! Always has been.... always will be!

As if the assign attempt on TWITTER wasn't outrageous enough, today's comments about the CHP, the opposition party in Turkey, being "hand in hand with  Assad and the "Terrorist" working inside Syria is sadly anther example of just how irrational Egodan truly is!  Another side note:  how is it you can accuse your political rival of being sympathetic to both sides of a civil conflict...... I'm not the only one who was "lost" on this comment!

And if this still not enough, Egodan then went on to compare the Gulen movement to yet another Terrorist organization!

So, according to Egodan's vision of the world, if you are not in support of him.... then you are a member of or support a Terrorist organization!

Are you lost yet?

It also appears Egodan is possibly getting ready to take a page from the Tsar's new book, "how to capture territory you really didn't need to"!

All the talk over the status surrounding the Tomb of Suleiman Shah in Syria sounds eerily familiar.

I do find it interesting the ISIL would be confident in goating Turkey into sending troops into Syria only days after Egodan launched his anti Twitter distraction action against the Syrian Fighter aircraft.

If the ISIL was really cunning enough to derive a plan that would lead to Turkish interdiction in Syria, even if only limited,  then they may truly have a working understanding of just how fragile Egodan's government is.

The facts remain the same.

Egodan's Iron Fist rule of Turkey is under attack and his list of enemies is growing by the day.

Trying to keep social media from the people in Turkey he fears the most, the youth, well only an out of touch fool could possibly believe such a stunt is even achievable.

The danger is, yet another key leader in the region, a leader who is linked to NATO, is becoming more and more irrational and he is a leader the West has supported... well... up until now!

Ask Mubarak how fast Western "support" can fade!

MIDDLE EAST AND THE UKRAINIAN CONNECTION.

Two weeks ago, I stated the impact of the Ukrainian crisis could easily end up impacting the conflict in Syria.

That was an easy and safe thing to predict, and because of that, I would like to take the time to go back to a topic I've not spoken of in the past three months.

I've not said much about the events in Syria for several months for one basic reason; not much was changing.

The stalemate that nearly everyone who knows the region predicted had come true.

The North cannot be retaken by the Assad forces and the South cannot be won by the Rebels thanks to Iranian and Hezbollah support.

What had become more than apparent was the ability to prevent Lebanon from becoming the fuse that truly ignited the entire region.

Most of the credit for this accomplishment must go to the people of Lebanon for it is they who have fought hard to keep Lebanon from sliding into the abyss.

I gave and would give very little credit to the West or "others.... insert GCC members here, for keeping Lebanon from imploding.

It is truly Lebanon's will that has kept the country from slipping over the edge of madness.

So, what has changed?

What has the Ukrainian crisis done to the day to day odds of Lebanon and the events in Syria or the Middle East in general of falling into a regional conflict?

Well, the true answer rest with the Tsar!

Yes the Tsar!

How far is he willing to counter the Western reaction to his plan of reestablishing the Russian Empire's grip on Eastern Europe?

Just how is the Middle East fit into the emerging struggle between the West and the new Russian Empire?

When the Master Plan was being drafted in Moscow, what was the "plan" for the Middle East?

The Middle East; a region that is a competitor for petrol dollars?

Never ever forget.... the bottom line for the future of the Tsar's Mother Russia is based upon the price of fuel!

You can philosophize to the Cows come home, but the fact of the matter is, the Tsar centers his master plan based on the profits of fuel!

Let's assume, remember... the "assumption game is one of my favorites, the Tsar's plans for the region called the Middle East are based upon keeping the price of fuel high!

Does he want "peace" in the region?

No!

Does he desire competitive markets?

What do "competitive markets do...drive down prices....thus... drive down profits and profits make the Motherland grow.

If the West truly understands how to counter the Tsar, then they understand the price of fuel is the real Center of Gravity.

If the Middle East stabilizes, then the price of fuel is determined by the GCC and then the question becomes does the GCC have the same "vision" the Tsar has?

I know that answer and it's NO!

Here is the truly ironic part of this story... the GCC / Saudi / reached out to the Tsar when it felt abandoned by the West / US / and the Tsar did not take the handshake.  

IDIOT!!!

Can the Tsar control the events of the Middle East?

No!

Can the West?

No!

Can the people of Lebanon hold on for much longer?

Let's all pray, regardless of what we think our God says, so!

The only thing holding the Middle East together right now are the people who want to avoid a regional war at all cost.

If the Tsar needs a regional war in the Middle East and the West would rather have the Israelis fight one there than the West fight in Europe, then we who do not wish for war need to support the good people of the Middle East at all cost!

THE ARAB SUMMIT AND TROUBLES AHEAD FOR THE GCC.

A week or two ago, I commented on the rift inside the GCC that seemed to be deliberately made public by Saudi Arabia.

I spoke of how damaging this "rift" could be to the GCC, a GCC run by families who don't understand the speed of social media in the 21st Century.

From day one of the Arab Spring.... Tunisian Virus... yep.. I'm not giving up on my nickname... the Gulf State Leaders have feared what they could not understand and still cannot control.

It's not just the close-minded Gulf States that are lost, but governance in general.

The problem is, the fear factor is compounded in the Middle East.

As the fear of what the Arab Spring might bring to each countries doorstep grew, as is always the case, some leaders decided to break ranks and taka an individual approach to surviving / dealing with the Arab Spring.

In my opinion, this is exactly what Qatar has tried to execute..... getting on the " we are with you" side of the Arab Spring.

I know some have speculated Qatar's bizarre abandonment of the GCC pack was based on the desire to " take a leading role" in the region.

I'm not sold on that theory.

My bet is what Qatar did was set in motion a process they truly believed would allow them to survive the Arab Spring if and when it showed up on their doorstep.

Obviously, this concept was not discussed or approved by the Mother ship of the GCC.... Saudi!

And so now we get to the bottom line of the Qatar issue!

So what?

How much attention does the world give to the rift taking place inside the GCC?

What does it mean to Europe, Asia ect...ect....?

Well, that is a complicated question to even begin to ponder, but I can tell you who is more than interested in what is taking place!

The Persians!

And what does this have to do with the pending Arab League Summit?

Everything...... Nothing.... depending on your world view!

To the Persians it is everything.....

To Europe... given the actions of the Tsar.. It's probably nothing!

And then....well... there is my opinion...the one that is most important to me!

On a good day the Arab League is not much more than a weekend getaway for the wealthiest men in the world!

In troubled times, it's a group that simply can't shoot straight! ( P.S.. I think I have called them this before, but I can't remember and don't feel like searching my site.)

Now, on a typical day, the Arab League would meet.... talk... .drink tea.. and other things in the company of a few trusted members.. give a few hollow speeches and then go home.

Come to think of it, not much different from the day to day workings of the UN!

Here is the problem.

These are not "normal times".

Not even close!

As a matter of fact, the "times" right now may be more dangerous then they've been in fifty years.

How stable is the Tsar?

What is he really up to... Hint... The West doesn't have a clue!

Where is China going in the Pacific and more importantly.. when?

How much longer do the Israelis tolerate the Persian Western shell game?

To put it simply, the word is moving fast and moving in several dangerous directions with social media acting as the catalyst of distrust of typical governance.

For the rest of the world these are troubling times.

For the Arab League, this is an extremely dangerous period sliding into a crisis.

Think about it!

The Arab nations who upset with the direction of Qatar are the same ones preparing to cut a "deal" with the Israelis over any pending actions against the Persians.

Talk about not holding the party line!

What could happen to the GCC?

In the law of nature, the weak go fist and the GCC is one of the weakest Alliances out there.

What holds them together is simple....profit!

What is good for one is only good for the other if the profit margin is there.

Just how much interference would it take to drive the GCC into actions that might have disastrous outcomes for it's members?

What if that interference came from a nation that was skilled in the art form of interference..... Hint.. more than just Iran... Think... the Tsar!

Is there any true bond between the Tsar and his vision of the world in a few years and the GCC?

In the long run, is the GCC not just a competitor for a market the Russians wish to dominate for decades to come?

What chance does the Arab League have of pulling in Qatar?

What is Qatar really afraid of?

If the Arab League can address that question, then they may have a chance, but the Persians will get a vote and the Persians have a friend / Master / in their corner... The Tsar!

So, if the GCC wishes to hold itself together and the Arab League is tasked to help address that wish, then they better do more in the next two days than give hollow speeches and send their wives to shop!

The world is moving faster by the second and the complications of governance are becoming more of a challenge with each passing day.

The Arab League needs to find their nitch and they need to find it quickly.

And finally... just how much money can Saudi spend to solve the Qatar  problem...oh ya.. and who will they spend it on?

THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AND A SHOT DOWN SYRIAN FIGHTER?

Had a great question asked of me today.

Does the Ukrainian crisis have any link to the downing of the Syrian jet?

I had to think about it for a few minutes before I realized it was a great question.

Has the theory of applying pressure to the Tsar somewhere other than in the Ukraine come into play?

Does tension in one area of the world lead to tension in other locations?

Actually, my opinion is the answer is probably twofold.

1.  Yes; others are often embolden to take actions they may not typcally take when they believe the rest of the world is "distracted".

2.  Erdogan truly needs a "distraction"!

If you have followed my post for the past few years, you know my opinion of the man I call Egodan!

Things have not been going well for him over the past year and the decay of his support along with the increased cunningness of his adversaries has made life difficult at best.

This weeks disastrous comments about TWITER and other social media networks were not just irrational, but they were amazingly stupid!

As I was reading Egodan's comments about the Syrian fighter event, I was stunned to see his comment about "flying over his land".

" His land".... Not the Turkish people's land....not the airspace of his nation, but "his land"!

Did Egodan decide that his train wreck of a week need an immediate distraction?

My bet is he did.

Has the crisis in the Ukraine given people like Egodan the perception wild actions can be taken when the world seems distracted by lost jetliners and Europe Bear Watching?

Yep...

What is really dangerous is the fact that Egodan is most likely not the only two-bit Thug who is now more tempted than ever to leverage a distracted world.. Insert... Hezbollah here!

Again; shy of the Tsar not launching another "rescue mission" in the Ukraine, I will be following one of my favorite topics for the next two days or so.... The so called... Arab League!!!!

What a Circus this meeting is going to be!