MIDDLE EAST AND THE UKRAINIAN CONNECTION.

Two weeks ago, I stated the impact of the Ukrainian crisis could easily end up impacting the conflict in Syria.

That was an easy and safe thing to predict, and because of that, I would like to take the time to go back to a topic I've not spoken of in the past three months.

I've not said much about the events in Syria for several months for one basic reason; not much was changing.

The stalemate that nearly everyone who knows the region predicted had come true.

The North cannot be retaken by the Assad forces and the South cannot be won by the Rebels thanks to Iranian and Hezbollah support.

What had become more than apparent was the ability to prevent Lebanon from becoming the fuse that truly ignited the entire region.

Most of the credit for this accomplishment must go to the people of Lebanon for it is they who have fought hard to keep Lebanon from sliding into the abyss.

I gave and would give very little credit to the West or "others.... insert GCC members here, for keeping Lebanon from imploding.

It is truly Lebanon's will that has kept the country from slipping over the edge of madness.

So, what has changed?

What has the Ukrainian crisis done to the day to day odds of Lebanon and the events in Syria or the Middle East in general of falling into a regional conflict?

Well, the true answer rest with the Tsar!

Yes the Tsar!

How far is he willing to counter the Western reaction to his plan of reestablishing the Russian Empire's grip on Eastern Europe?

Just how is the Middle East fit into the emerging struggle between the West and the new Russian Empire?

When the Master Plan was being drafted in Moscow, what was the "plan" for the Middle East?

The Middle East; a region that is a competitor for petrol dollars?

Never ever forget.... the bottom line for the future of the Tsar's Mother Russia is based upon the price of fuel!

You can philosophize to the Cows come home, but the fact of the matter is, the Tsar centers his master plan based on the profits of fuel!

Let's assume, remember... the "assumption game is one of my favorites, the Tsar's plans for the region called the Middle East are based upon keeping the price of fuel high!

Does he want "peace" in the region?

No!

Does he desire competitive markets?

What do "competitive markets do...drive down prices....thus... drive down profits and profits make the Motherland grow.

If the West truly understands how to counter the Tsar, then they understand the price of fuel is the real Center of Gravity.

If the Middle East stabilizes, then the price of fuel is determined by the GCC and then the question becomes does the GCC have the same "vision" the Tsar has?

I know that answer and it's NO!

Here is the truly ironic part of this story... the GCC / Saudi / reached out to the Tsar when it felt abandoned by the West / US / and the Tsar did not take the handshake.  

IDIOT!!!

Can the Tsar control the events of the Middle East?

No!

Can the West?

No!

Can the people of Lebanon hold on for much longer?

Let's all pray, regardless of what we think our God says, so!

The only thing holding the Middle East together right now are the people who want to avoid a regional war at all cost.

If the Tsar needs a regional war in the Middle East and the West would rather have the Israelis fight one there than the West fight in Europe, then we who do not wish for war need to support the good people of the Middle East at all cost!

THE ARAB SUMMIT AND TROUBLES AHEAD FOR THE GCC.

A week or two ago, I commented on the rift inside the GCC that seemed to be deliberately made public by Saudi Arabia.

I spoke of how damaging this "rift" could be to the GCC, a GCC run by families who don't understand the speed of social media in the 21st Century.

From day one of the Arab Spring.... Tunisian Virus... yep.. I'm not giving up on my nickname... the Gulf State Leaders have feared what they could not understand and still cannot control.

It's not just the close-minded Gulf States that are lost, but governance in general.

The problem is, the fear factor is compounded in the Middle East.

As the fear of what the Arab Spring might bring to each countries doorstep grew, as is always the case, some leaders decided to break ranks and taka an individual approach to surviving / dealing with the Arab Spring.

In my opinion, this is exactly what Qatar has tried to execute..... getting on the " we are with you" side of the Arab Spring.

I know some have speculated Qatar's bizarre abandonment of the GCC pack was based on the desire to " take a leading role" in the region.

I'm not sold on that theory.

My bet is what Qatar did was set in motion a process they truly believed would allow them to survive the Arab Spring if and when it showed up on their doorstep.

Obviously, this concept was not discussed or approved by the Mother ship of the GCC.... Saudi!

And so now we get to the bottom line of the Qatar issue!

So what?

How much attention does the world give to the rift taking place inside the GCC?

What does it mean to Europe, Asia ect...ect....?

Well, that is a complicated question to even begin to ponder, but I can tell you who is more than interested in what is taking place!

The Persians!

And what does this have to do with the pending Arab League Summit?

Everything...... Nothing.... depending on your world view!

To the Persians it is everything.....

To Europe... given the actions of the Tsar.. It's probably nothing!

And then....well... there is my opinion...the one that is most important to me!

On a good day the Arab League is not much more than a weekend getaway for the wealthiest men in the world!

In troubled times, it's a group that simply can't shoot straight! ( P.S.. I think I have called them this before, but I can't remember and don't feel like searching my site.)

Now, on a typical day, the Arab League would meet.... talk... .drink tea.. and other things in the company of a few trusted members.. give a few hollow speeches and then go home.

Come to think of it, not much different from the day to day workings of the UN!

Here is the problem.

These are not "normal times".

Not even close!

As a matter of fact, the "times" right now may be more dangerous then they've been in fifty years.

How stable is the Tsar?

What is he really up to... Hint... The West doesn't have a clue!

Where is China going in the Pacific and more importantly.. when?

How much longer do the Israelis tolerate the Persian Western shell game?

To put it simply, the word is moving fast and moving in several dangerous directions with social media acting as the catalyst of distrust of typical governance.

For the rest of the world these are troubling times.

For the Arab League, this is an extremely dangerous period sliding into a crisis.

Think about it!

The Arab nations who upset with the direction of Qatar are the same ones preparing to cut a "deal" with the Israelis over any pending actions against the Persians.

Talk about not holding the party line!

What could happen to the GCC?

In the law of nature, the weak go fist and the GCC is one of the weakest Alliances out there.

What holds them together is simple....profit!

What is good for one is only good for the other if the profit margin is there.

Just how much interference would it take to drive the GCC into actions that might have disastrous outcomes for it's members?

What if that interference came from a nation that was skilled in the art form of interference..... Hint.. more than just Iran... Think... the Tsar!

Is there any true bond between the Tsar and his vision of the world in a few years and the GCC?

In the long run, is the GCC not just a competitor for a market the Russians wish to dominate for decades to come?

What chance does the Arab League have of pulling in Qatar?

What is Qatar really afraid of?

If the Arab League can address that question, then they may have a chance, but the Persians will get a vote and the Persians have a friend / Master / in their corner... The Tsar!

So, if the GCC wishes to hold itself together and the Arab League is tasked to help address that wish, then they better do more in the next two days than give hollow speeches and send their wives to shop!

The world is moving faster by the second and the complications of governance are becoming more of a challenge with each passing day.

The Arab League needs to find their nitch and they need to find it quickly.

And finally... just how much money can Saudi spend to solve the Qatar  problem...oh ya.. and who will they spend it on?

THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS AND A SHOT DOWN SYRIAN FIGHTER?

Had a great question asked of me today.

Does the Ukrainian crisis have any link to the downing of the Syrian jet?

I had to think about it for a few minutes before I realized it was a great question.

Has the theory of applying pressure to the Tsar somewhere other than in the Ukraine come into play?

Does tension in one area of the world lead to tension in other locations?

Actually, my opinion is the answer is probably twofold.

1.  Yes; others are often embolden to take actions they may not typcally take when they believe the rest of the world is "distracted".

2.  Erdogan truly needs a "distraction"!

If you have followed my post for the past few years, you know my opinion of the man I call Egodan!

Things have not been going well for him over the past year and the decay of his support along with the increased cunningness of his adversaries has made life difficult at best.

This weeks disastrous comments about TWITER and other social media networks were not just irrational, but they were amazingly stupid!

As I was reading Egodan's comments about the Syrian fighter event, I was stunned to see his comment about "flying over his land".

" His land".... Not the Turkish people's land....not the airspace of his nation, but "his land"!

Did Egodan decide that his train wreck of a week need an immediate distraction?

My bet is he did.

Has the crisis in the Ukraine given people like Egodan the perception wild actions can be taken when the world seems distracted by lost jetliners and Europe Bear Watching?

Yep...

What is really dangerous is the fact that Egodan is most likely not the only two-bit Thug who is now more tempted than ever to leverage a distracted world.. Insert... Hezbollah here!

Again; shy of the Tsar not launching another "rescue mission" in the Ukraine, I will be following one of my favorite topics for the next two days or so.... The so called... Arab League!!!!

What a Circus this meeting is going to be!

HOW TO "DEAL" WITH THE NEW TSAR / PUTIN?

Over the course of the past few months, it's been more than interesting to talk to friends and others about the events in the Ukraine and more importantly the rise of the new Tsar, but someone finally asked the question I've been waiting for; "how would you deal with him"?

Well...... given someone finally asked..... here ya go!!!!

Just about every conscious member of the Simi informed world knows the engine behind the revitalized Russia is fuel!!

The Master Plan set by the new Tsar was simplistic and as such nobody in the political... cocktail drinking social elite club seem to have a clue what was taking place or worse yet....didn't care!

By the way, in many part of the world they have believed for years the "West" would sell the guns to the very people that will kill them!

How is it that the left leaning Europe could possibly believe the Great Russian Empire was not planning the whole time to have Western Europe "addicted" to the fuels of Mother Russia?

History is an excellent teacher, but only if one pays attention in class!

Ok, let me move on.

So the plan was to rebuild the Russian economy based on fuel needs in Europe and at the same time, modernize a section of the Russian military that would allow it to gain respect in the world once again....Does anyone remember the "Big Red Machine".... well.. It's not as big and it's not as modern as they would like, but it's in the hands of a man that is not afraid to use it and that makes it much larger than it appears.

What to do?

For weeks now the battle cry in the US, by one party that is, is to export as much fuel as possible, thus reducing the market demand for Mother Russia's products.

At face value this sounds logical and would even bring value to the US economy, but a few facts remain.

One; the Russian fuel sent to Europe is still in demand in other parts of the world.

Two; the process of executing such a plan takes time; and yes I am aware of the fact that even the announcement of such a plan would impact the market price...umm.... all market prices...think about it.

Three; The Tsar may have anticipated this, although I doubt it, and the short term impact of him cutting off key lines to Western Europe would be dramatic and that is a real threat....one that he has executed before.

So, at face value, the idea of the US doing what it could do better than anyone out there, produce fuel, is a plausible course of action, but one that is full of risk.

Side note: I won't go into why this is not going to happen anytime  soon because.... well... it's just too aggravating to think about right now.

If it sounds like, "My Plan", is the same one that has been on all the talk shows for the past few weeks, then here is my twist!

Europe has to announce the plan first!

If the EU would stand up with one voice, something that will not happen until Mother Russia is "securing the safety of Russians in Poland or Bulgaria ect...ect..., and announce the EU is starting a ten year plan to end the import of Russian fuels and is doing so with the help of it's new partners in the Middle East....yep.. the Tsar may yet regret slapping the Saudi's face over Syria, the message would have just as much impact as a US announcement if not more.

Short answer; Europe has to take the first step!

The US is no longer in the position to run to the rescue of Europe!

Times have changed!

PS: I'm heading back to the topic of the Middle East for a few days starting tomorrow; unless the Tsar needs to rescue more Russian in the Ukraine!

JIHADIS... CRIMEA.... AND THE TSAR... JUST LIKE I SAID.       

If you search my postings for the word Tatars, you will see my comments from a two weeks ago on the pending threat of Jihadis entering the Ukrainian / Crimean event.

It turns out, the "Nafir" was announced just about the same time as my posting.

It also seems the age old saying of, " The enemy of my enemy is my friend" is also going to hold true, at least for now!

The pending alliance between Pravy Sektor and the radicals who will link up with the Tatars is probably a forgone conclusion.

The question becomes, did the Tsar and his planners anticipate this?

Can the Tsar use this as the predictable excuse to move further into the Ukraine?

His countries track record of dealing with such groups is less than stellar and all one has to do is look towards the Northern Caucasus to see my point.

If the Russians did build this scenario into their Master Plan, then the potential Tatar key players have long been Identified and when you are "identified" in Russia.. well we all know what that means.... There is no water boarding in Russia!!

That would lead me to ask one basic question!

Did any of the key members of the Tatars "disappear" prior to the actions in Crimea?

How long before we witness the first signs of " The resistance" in Crimea?

How will the Russians react?

Once again, we are back to my comment on how the Tsar, try as he may, cannot control every aspect of this crisis.

He may feel confident on controlling the West's actions, but the smaller, more radical Crazy Eddies... that is far different story.

Oh ya.. and if these Crazy   Eddie groups turn out to be Sunni......you can guess who the Tsar is going to blame for supporting them?

Hint.. Who did he blame in Libya?

UKRAINE AND THE ESCALATION OF "COUNTER MOVES".

Russia states it may change it's involvement in the Iranian Nuclear Program?

Israel has it's largest air operations in Syria to date?

Serbs hint at the issue of secessionism?

Who was it that said one of the most dangerous outcomes of the Ukrainian event would be Second / Third Orders of Effect.... The Law of Unintended Consequences?

I always hate to say, " I told you so"... but... " I told you so"!!!!

Here is the bad news.

These three actions are more than likely only the beginning of the Ukrainian fallout!

Why... there was even talk of Orthodox nations needing to come together!!!

Where have we heard that before....hint.... think 1854!

 While all of this was taking place, I couldn't help but notice the leadership of the US was in Eastern Europe and more or less....drawing "redlines" again!!!!

If you have three or four redlines that have been trampled out in front of you......do you really think the next "redline" is going to have any impact at all?

Is the message; "ok....this time we really...really mean it"?

An as for those countries where these new redline type of statements were made... take a guess what they think.... at least in private.

If I had to grasp for some example of minor success, I would wish the Israeli strike into Syria would be an example of the West letting the Tsar know not everything is going to go his way.

Here is the problem, I don't believe that to be the case...not at all!!!!

My theory is the reason we witnessed the largest air strike into Syria since the beginning of the conflict based upon an even more pressing problem for the West.

Israel's rapidly depleting trust in Western support.

In my opinion, the message was clear; " we are not the West".... We will not step backwards from a threat"!

What the IDF accomplished was to not only put Assad on notice, but Hezbollah as well.

It would be more than foolish for Assad to be convinced by the Tsar or the Persians that he can act like the Tsar and Israel will act like the West.

What is working for the Tsar could prove to be disastrous for Assad and his Puppet Master's in Tehran.

By the end of the day, one fact stands clear.

Where this is all heading is not just up to the President of the United States and the Tsar.

That is how the game was played in the "old" Cold War.

In this new version... many players have the will and capability to change the playbook and that makes this a far more dangerous Cold War than in the past.

CRIMEA AND CONFLICT.. IT CHANGED EUROPE ONCE BEFORE!

In 1853, England, France and the Ottoman Empire wanted no part of a large scale war.

On the other hand, Russia did; and with that........Europe went to war.

It couldn't happen again right?

I mean, it's the 21st century and everyone knows a regional conflict is bad for the economy and simply beyond the civilized beliefs of all the people in the region!

It simply can't happen.....right?

So, what does happen when one side decides they are willing to fight and the other side or sides just really doesn't want to?

Well, historically two things happen.

First, the side or sides that don't want to fight give ground on just about every issue that is placed on the table; usually one at a time, systematically with each "negotiated" topic a "sign" the conflict is going to be avoided.

Mr. Chamberlain comes to mind.

Yes, I am on record with my opinion that the Tsar doesn't want a regional war over the issue of the Ukraine, but what he wants and what he doesn't want can get lost in the emotions of the moment or overcome by "events".

What of an event such as a Ukrainian unit firing on a Russian detachment with losses on both sides?

What's the "plan" to keep that "event" from escalating?

What is the plan if after such an event; the Russian units crush the Ukrainian unit / units responsible for the "event"?

You see, the historical patterns of conflict have never really deviated from the simple truth that when one side commits to conflict the other side / sides / really have no choice!

In 1853 the British wanted no part of a total war with Russia and thus they opted for a limited conflict confined to the Red Sea and mostly Crimea.

It was a conflict that was to be "limited" in it's impact of Europe and by the time it was over , the stage was set for WWI and thus leading to the complete imbalance of the entire Middle East / Ottoman Empire!

The Crimean war of 1854 gave us more than the Charge of the Light Brigade and a modern modeling of military logistics.

The Crimean war gave the world an unbalanced Europe and cultural fragmentations that were compounded by the First World War to the point we sit were we are today with a Middle East designed by military Engineers.

As stated last night the Tsar only thinks he knows the outcome of the events taking place in the Ukraine.

He ether is confident of his Mater Plan or he doesn't care what ramifications may come.

His words on Tuesday were spoken not just to his "Comrades" in Moscow.

His "intent" may finally be coming to the surface.

Ignore those you don't respect and no longer fear.

Push Russia to the forefront and if the price is a "limited conflict" then so be it.

Remember... the British wish 1854 to be nothing more than a "limited conflict".

One side... willing if not wishing to fight and the other... floundering with even the concept of conflict.

I'm not sure how many Billionaires the West can "sanction" but my guess is the next real threat will have to have more than sanctions attached.