SANCTIONS ... "MORE THAN BUSH  IN 2008"!!!!ARE YOU KIDDING ME?

Ok,  as I predicted, the "vote" took place and nothing really happened.

I say nothing really happened simply because, to the Tsar's people the so called sanctions announced today in the US and Europe.... well... they amounted to nothing.

What I was stunned by was the argument by some in the US that President Bush didn't even execute sanctions against Russia for the actions in Georgia in 2008!!!

Really...It's been over five years... How much longer does the current US administration continue to compare what does and doesn't do with the Bush years?

As I said last week, the backers of the Tsar are as financially safe now as they were before the crisis in the Ukraine started and that explains the lackadaisical response today.

Having said that, let's take a look at what the current "perception" environment most likely is in Europe, not to mention other parts of the world.

If you were in... let's say...Poland.... and you heard the actions taken by the European Union and the US today, what comfort level would it give you?

How about if you were not pro Russian and you lived in Moldova?

What would be your gut feeling about support from the US or the EU if you lived somewhere that use to have a Soviet flag flying on your land?

When you heard how the US could increase fuel exports to pressure the Tsar in the one area he worries about... fuel profits.... and at the end of the discussion you heard absolutely nothing about this increased action taking place..... what would you think?

If you were a Muslim Tatar in the Crimea; after today's results.. who would you start contemplating turning to?

If you lived in the part of Europe; soon to be all of Europe, that felt most threatened by the new Tsar's hunger for power, how confident would you be in your "independent" future?

Ok, here comes my next question.

Just how serious is the Tsar about physically controlling Europe... all of Europe?

Is that what he really wants?

Does he want the Russian flag flying in Berlin.... Paris...?

Well, if we were talking about anyone other than Mr. Putin, I would quickly answer no!

Having said that, I am still convinced that is not the Tsars goal!

So; just how big of a threat is this more forwardly aggressive Putin?

It's a very hard question to give a definitive answer to, but my gut tells me the hype is growing larger than the intent.

The world media loves a story and the world of social media is truly an unregulated rumor machine.

It would be easy to say, "we will all wake up tomorrow and the world will mostly likely be just the same as it has been for years"!

Here is the problem with the, ' I'm not worried about it" camp!

Although the Tsar and his followers have a vision of what the new Russia will look like, the path of implementation will do as it has always done.... create second and third order effects....

Ah yes... If you know me, you know I have drifted into one of my favorite topics;
" The Law of Unintended Consequences"!!!!!

Putin had and has a "plan"..

The world has and will react... overreact!

Key parts of the world will under react.. ( insert the word 'sanctions here)!

Under reaction will lead to have hazard over reaction based upon internal political pressure...In the West.. everyone has to get reelected and if you are seen as "weak".. then your odds go way....way .... down!!!

So, it's like this.

Putin's plan probably doesn't call for the Russian flag in Berlin... at least I not at this time!

Making money and gaining respect... those are the key goals of the new Tsar.. my bet!!

The trouble is... his actions will set into motion other events...even in other parts of the world... that have absolutely nothing to do with his original plan.

And that is the future... that we all must fear....

Things will not be the same after the events of the Ukraine..... just as they have not been the same after the events of the Arab Spring.. Just ask the GCC....

Putin knows where he wanted this all to end up, but does he realize as much as he would like to think other wise... he doesn't control the entire process?

It's the historical downfall of methodical Tyrants.

BEFORE THE UKRAINE BURNS.. LETS GO BACK TO THE GCC ISSUES!

Yesterday, I stated the only way the events of the Crimean referindum would pull me away from addressing the issues surounding the GCC was if the Russians took the next step in their Master Plan in the Ukraine.

Well, if you listened to the Ukrainian spokesman from Kiev today, you might believe that next phase was underway.

The stories of Russian troop movements into key towns that support critical infrastructure support to the Crimean started popping up today, but nobody is really sure how much of this is "hype" and how much of this is fact.

Again, pictures are worth a thousand words and the pictures of Russian air assets in key border towns seem to be unavailable.... at least right now.

So, lets see what tomorrow brings to the world's table and we shall move on from there.

Now, back to the topic worthy of discussion, at least for now; the GCC and why it's under pressure.

Several times over the past two or three years, I've mentioned the issue of the failing relationship between the GCC leaders and the "West / US".

As I was reading the attached story tonight,  a very well written piece by the way, I convinced myself the time had come to once again comment on the consequences of what obviously seems to be the new US policy towards the Middle East.

Again, the simple truth of the matter is, the GCC is continuing to lose confidence in the relationships with the US and the West.

As this confidence slides, the comfort level of survival slides proportionately!

Those who have always been seen as somewhat on the fence are now being identified as potential enemies.

Is the rift between Qatar and the Saudi government for real?

You bet it is!

Is this "change" the direct result of the changed US policy towards the Middle East?

Is this "rift" a byproduct of the ongoing paranoia brought on by the Arab Spring.. an Arab Spring that was supported by the West / US?

Yep!

 What the world has witnessed last week was more than a fracture surfacing in the GCC.

What the world witnessed last week was the destabilization of the GCC at a time when the stability of the GCC could be fare more destructive than in the past.

Yes, several of the GCC members have had their differences in the past, but this is not the 70s and this is not about bragging rights.

The balance of power in the Middle East is faltering and the policies of the West / US are doing little to stabilize the pending crisis.

Yes the situation in the Ukraine is dangerous and yes it could lead to rising tensions between old enemies, but other regions of the world and the events taking place there cannot be overlooked and what took place last week with the GCC is a dangerous reminder of that truth.

Again and again, the effects of a decisive leader in the region / the US /  changing it's course and doing so with what appears to be little coordination with "old friends" is having an impact that many will not be able to predict.

I may very well go back to addressing the events of the Ukraine by this time tomorrow, but what is taking place in the Middle East must be addressed.

A weakened, destabilized and fractured GCC will be a prime target of the Persians and a aggressive Tsar who sees everything going his way.

"Nothing will really change".

If that is the thought process of those who should be listening, then we all better be ready for other "changes" that will seem to come right out of the clear blue sky.

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/commentaryanalysis/539078-saudi-moves

THE UKRAINE AND THE FEVER PITCHED.. WHAT IF'S?

As much as I would like to speak to the issue of the ongoing disturbance in the force called the GCC...  I will end up spending one more night on the Ukrainian issue before I just sit back to watch what happens after this Sunday.

I promises all my followers who cover the Middle East, I will get back to the topic of the GCC on Saturday.... barring of course a Russian invasion of Eastern Ukraine.

Ok, I've heard just about every talking head I think could possibly fit their way on to the theater now know as modern day news media and their "opinions" of what is going to happen with the pending Crimean referendum.

Here is what is going to happen.

The vote will be to join, in the near future not right away...something the Tsar's people demanded would be placed in the verbiage of the victory speech... the Russian federation.

The announcement will not be recognized by the current government in Kiev and it will not be recognized by the West.

Moscow will announce they understand the concerns of the Crimean people and will begin the "process" to find a " workable solution with all parties".

More Russian troops will move into the Crimean.

The more radical side of the Tatars will begin to organize their "resistance".. even thought the Tsar had their leader in a meeting asking him to go along with the Russian plan.

The West will used worlds like, "outrageous.... unacceptable.... unrecognized.... ect...ect..". and in the end...doing absolutely nothing.. physically.

The current government of the Ukraine will announce the do not recognize the referendum results, but will do little to physically react to it.

                                                                                                                   

And the Tsar... Oh yes..... the Tsar.... Well.... He will look to his key staff and quietly say, "lets move on to the next phase now"!

So, Sunday's vote will pass.... the war of words will be full steam and may overtake, finally after a week, the mystery flight in Asia......

But, the simple fact is, nothing will change... not unless the Russian decide to take the Master Plan to the next phase or the Tatars are far more prepared to create disruption than most give them credit for.

And you see... it's for that exact reason, by Saturday night, I will move back to the topic that I truly wish to address and that is the GCC!

Until then, keep listening to the talking heads on the media if you have absolutely nothing else to do with your time.

As for me...... I'm going to play HALO.. yep old school... and get ready to talk about the shift in the Middle East everyone is overlooking....

See you all on Saturday! Night that is:)

UKRAINE'S "NATIONAL GUARD" ? WHAT IS THE REAL REASON?

Last week, I spoke to the issue of how the Ukrainian military might be more divided than many realized and how the ousted President may have insured the Military would not follow new leadership that is simply based upon protest in Kiev.

Again and again I have reminded everyone just how detailed the planning process by the Russians may have been and how anticipating having to split the Ukrainian military to insure it was not combat effective was most likely a priority of effort.

Continue this concept by considering how reluctant the new government would be to even hint to the outside world there was dissension amongst the ranks of the Ukrainian military?

Yet, if the new leadership truly had evidence or a strong perception of this being true, then the question of forming a "new defense force" might just be logical.

Short version of this question!

Is the development of the new Ukrainian National Guard an indication the Ukrainian military may be more divided, thus ineffective, than anticipated?

As much credit as I have given the Russian military planning process, I'm not sold on the idea they anticipated a formal National Guard realignment.

In a Chess game where the new government and the West have been losing almost every move, this National Guard concept may be the first indication of a offensive victory.

Now, I say that, but you can bet the Russian reaction to the National Guard announcement will sound something like this; "we do not recognize a formal alignment of Fascist groups into a military organization".

So, does this National Guard concept indicate trouble in the Ukrainian military forces and their questionable loyalty to the new government in Kiev?

My opinion is yes; it means exactly that.

As to the tactical capabilities of this new concept, I would suggest we wait to see who makes up these new units?

If they are bits and pieces of existing units, then I think we have our answer.

Will this new concept be capable of defending large portions of Ukrainian land?

It depends on what they are trying to defend against.

On the other hand, if the rumors of Russian forces massing on the Ukrainian border are true, and I believe they are, then this new National Guard concept will be nothing more than a prime example of a too little and too late.

My bet is, we shall see sooner than we think.

RUSSIAN "TYCOONS" AND HOW TO ASSESS GOOD INTELLIGENCE.         

Once again, let's play the assumption game.

Lets assume the rumors of Pro Russian "Tycoons" moving money up to two months ago are true.

How in the world could the intelligence community, from several countries, miss this?

Is it possible the intelligence community doesn't judge the sudden movement of funds of key supporters of world leaders as a "key indicator"?

People are going to ask, " so, do we watch the movement of money and if so, how"?

Does money typically flow from certain locations to certain location prior to a major event taking place?

Is the intelligence community ready to give the public an explanation if this rumor does turn out to be true?

 We know who the Tsar's main supporters are and we should know where their money is; notice I said 'should"!

Again, I'm going to assume this rumor has some merit to it and I'm also going to assume the Western intelligence community was asleep at the switch.

Once we get passed the idea of this transfer of funds actually taking place, an even more ominous fact comes to the surface.

The events in the Ukraine are on a course that has been predetermined just as I had feared.

Moving money is a way to keep your supporters from losing money and that implies the Russians anticipated sanctions and individual sanctions.

Is that important?

Yes.

If the pending sanctions, something the EU will vote on in less than 24 hrs, then have been preprogrammed into the Russian plan, then the next phase of that plan will take place regardless of any so called sanctions.

Rumors of Russian units preparing to enter the Eastern sections of the Ukraine are growing by the hour and everyone seems to be holding their breath.

Events that are about to unfold are far too important to step backwards and wonder how this money movement issue, if true, could have taken place without the intelligence "experts".. I use that word loosely..... understanding what was taking place.

Here is the bottom line:

As of the 11th of March 2014, the Western world can do little to keep the next Russian move from taking place.

Pain will to come from another direction and do so quickly and even then a "tit for tat" interaction will do absolutely nothing to impact what is about to take place in the Ukraine.

Side note:  I don't think we have even seen the beginning of the new, 21st century way of playing the old Cold War game of " ship bumping"...

Cyber and all that we do not understand about what that means.... that is the next generation of "ship bumping"..  

AWACs and Russian airborne exercises will have everyone watching, but the real shots of a Russian / Western conflict may come with little to no sound and not a single vehicle firing on another vehicle.

Oh, all of you "cyber warriors" please don't tell me DOS / Denial of Service attacks are already the indications of what could take place..

DOS events are child's play compared to what we really fear.

  

AWACS .. THE 21st CENTURY VERSION OF "SHIP BUMPING"!

Today's announcement on the coverage of airborne assets to "monitor" events in the Ukraine may be news to some in the media, but the reality is this has mostly likely been taking place since the beginning of the crisis.

Having the ability to monitor what is flying into or around the Ukraine is one mission, but other assets have the ability to track other movements and it's these "other movements" that might be the most important.

JSTARS and other similar assets can paint a very accurate picture of what is moving on the ground and it's these ground movements  / locations / that are most likely the truly valued information.

As I have said before, in the detailed world of military planning, possible enemy courses of action, in this case Western actions, would have been mapped out by the Russian planners.

Did they anticipate the deployment of airborne ISR / Intelligence / assets?

I would be stunned and very disappointed if the answer was no!

If the Russians did anticipate the intelligence missions, could that account for the large scale anti air exercise they announced a few days ago?

My guess is that was at least a large part of the planning process.

By anticipating and airborne ISR operation a message can be sent that Ukrainian airspace is now closed with a Russian anti air "Exercise".

So, it a not so obvious way, the chest game of military maneuvering is increasing day by day.

By the way, AWACS and other like assets typically have "Defensive Patrols" escorting them.

Will this be the case this time around?

Hard to tell, but you can bet the Russians are "looking" towards the sky just as much as the West is.

In my opinion, the airspace over the Ukraine is all but officially closed and I would not be surprised to see the Russians officially declare such an status in the next few days.

In the early stages of this Chess game, this Air Defense Exercise and the AWACS deployment are identifiable signs of increasing tensions... now taking place at the tactical level, not just on the diplomatic front; and that is a event that should not go unnoticed or underestimated.

Oh... by the way... back when the Cold War was in it's Glory Days... yes that is how some them.....   It was a sign of rising tensions when a Soviet Ship and a Western Ship would "bump" or get close to bumping.    

Let's see if any good old fashion "Air Intercepts" take place anytime soon!

SYRIA AND THE POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE BATTLEFIELD.

Ok, it's easy to see how the events in Syria have fallen off the radar with most folks and even the events in Iraq, events that should be getting far more coverage than they are, are not rising to the occasion of even minimal concern.

Most of this can be attributed to the very short attention span the West notoriously has.

If Dancing with the Stars is on, who cares about a potential conflict in Europe again!

After two weeks of daily live reporting, even the events in the Ukraine seem to have lost interest with the people of the West.

From Assad's standpoint this couldn't have come at a better time, not to mention Hezbollah and their continued missteps in Syria.

If you've not paid attention, and most haven't, the might Hezbollah Warriors have been getting their forth point of contacts handed to them in their battle for the city of Yabrud.

So, are things going just the way Assad would like them?

With all eyes on the Ukraine, does Assad have yet another green light for killing on a massive scale?

Yes he does, but it's not doing him any good.

Last week there were serious rumors of a "second front" opening to the South of Damascus.

Are these rumors true... do they have any merit?

Two answers.

1.  The people in the West don't seem to know or care.

2.  You can bet Assad and this puppet masters in Tehran think it's true!

With the ever less attending eyes of the West gazing towards the Ukraine, the simple fact of the matter is Assad is still losing ground.

Yabrud, a predicted easy takeover for Assad's forces and Hezbollah, has become an entrenched battleground.

If a GCC backed, supported "second front" is about to open, the West may be far more willing to ether turn a blind eye or even support the concept given the anger that is brewing over the Tsar's actions in the Ukraine.

I stated three weeks ago, the Ukraine would turn into a "tit for tat"  event.

If the Tsar is getting his way in the Ukraine, then put the pressure on his vision in the Middle East.

How easy would this be?

Well, it would be far more amenable to the people of the US and Europe than the idea of an open confrontation over Ukraine.

Finally, as I have said before, here is the most dangerous thing about labeling someone as a "pushover"... the way the Tsar seems to look at President Obama.

Often when you push someone too far, that person finally decides to lash out and that is usually an ill planned poorly executed event.

If the President of the US is growing tired of hearing, one, he cannot afford to do anything tangible about the Ukraine.. words from his own party... and two... He is failing as a world leader... the concept his  political rival party is putting out there..... then he may be demanding "options"!

Options come easy in the Middle East and some of those options might even help win back some of the trust he has lost with the GCC.

The Crimean may slide into the Russian camp, but the times may be about to get much harder for the Eye Doctor in Damascus.

Oh ya... did I mention the STL trials are finally underway in Lebanon?

Does anyone remember what the STL?

I know... I know... Dancing with the Stars is on!!

Keep your eyes on the Middle East and lets see if the West / the US is about to show the Tsar there is a price to pay for Crimea that is not going to be paid in Europe.